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Welcome to The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series! Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan is a global energy, demographic and security expert. If you want to stay informed on the realities of geography and populations, you’ve come to the right place. Zeihan’s worldview offers insights into how global politics impact markets and economic trends, helping industry leaders navigate today’s complex mix of geopolitical risks and opportunities. Expect a forward-looking approach to what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, delivered in digestible, accessible and relevant takeaways for audiences of all types. For more info or to subscribe to the newsletter, visit: zeihan.com Subscribe to the YouTube Channel @zeihanongeopolitics Thanks for listening, and don’t forget to subscribe!
The podcast The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series is created by Peter Zeihan. The podcast and the artwork on this page are embedded on this page using the public podcast feed (RSS).
The most recent presidential election in Romania has been annulled, and surprise, surprise, it's because of the Russians.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/red-strings-in-romania
Syria was critical for Iran's influence in the Arab world. For 40 years the Iranians could project power via Syria and Hezbollah, but the collapse of the Assad regime means Syria's role as buffer and distraction has ended. So, what's next for Iran?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-iran-goes-defensive
The Russians aren't the only ones trying to figure out what to do following the chaos in Syria; Israel is also reassessing their regional positioning.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-israels-opportunity
Much has changed since I left for New Zealand a few days ago, and I'm sure everyone has already caught up on the Syrian unraveling. So, let's dive into the history of Syria and the consequences that all this will have, specifically what this means for Russia.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-syrian-consequence-russias-withdrawal
The Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has succeeded in toppling the Assad regime.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/toppling-assad-and-a-divided-syria
The Europeans are having a bit of a leadership crisis at the moment, and it's coming at an inopportune time...
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-mar-a-lago-solve-the-leadership-vacuum-in-europe
The Germans are on a steep uphill climb trying to figure all their s*** out. On the chopping block today is Germany's automotive and industrial sectors (with Volkswagen being our guinea pig).
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-german-failure-volkswagen
South Korea caught fire yesterday as President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law and deployed the military to shut down parliament. But that didn't last long...the parliament summarily overturned that decision – unanimously no less. So where does that leave the Koreans?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/korean-martial-law-starts-and-ends
Protesters have taken to the streets in Georgia after pro-Russian oligarch and head of the ruling Georgia Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, announced that Tbilisi would be ending its bid to join the EU.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-russians-need-georgia-and-the-caucasus
This is a compilation of videos outlining what led Syria to Civil War...
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/syria-breakdown-what-led-them-to-this
I've done a handful of videos on semiconductors and there's a very good reason for that. The production of semiconductors and the companies involved will be under the spotlight for the next few years as the entire industry gets shaken up.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tsmcs-semiconductor-production-in-the-usa
When asked to list the things I worry about for the US, most of the typical geopolitical issues I discuss aren't on that list. So, today we're getting a bit more granular and talking about fentanyl.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-im-worried-about-fentanyl-in-the-us
Unlike Trump's proposed tariffs for China, the tariffs heading for Canada and Mexico can be viewed as leverage (or bargaining chips) to address issues amongst our North American trade partners.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-tariffs-part-2-canada-and-mexico
The Trump administration is planning to impose some hefty tariffs on China. This isn't just to reform trade practices and show China "who's the boss", but rather to shift industrial production away from China permanently.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trump-tariffs-part-1-china
The US oil industry has seen a massive boost thanks to the shale revolution, but can the Europeans replicate the success the US has seen?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-shale-for-europe
Following the United States' approval for Ukraine to use its weapons systems inside of Russia, Putin decided to launch an intermediate-range missile called the Oreshnik into Ukraine.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/when-the-missile-is-the-message
I'm overlooking the city of Chihuahua, Mexico as I record today's video. This city is just one of many that is preparing for a post-China world, and you can probably hear all that preparation going on in the background...
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/viva-chihuahua
If you're getting worried about Chinese investments into infrastructure in Mexico, it might be time to switch the TV off and take a walk...because that narrative is a complete fabrication.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-chinese-investment-in-mexico
Listen, I'm not one to scoff at a nice serving of fish ‘n’ chips, but when you're serving baked beans for breakfast...that's where I draw the line. You guessed it, we're talking about the decline of British agriculture today.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/british-agriculture-is-about-to-suck-even-more
The Biden administration just gave Ukraine the greenlight to use American weaponry inside of Russian territory. So, what does this mean for the future of the Ukraine War?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-can-now-strike-russia-direct
Donald Trump's cabinet appointees are rolling in and let's just say they're not the A-team, but what did we expect?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-cabinet-picks-loyalty-over-experience
This is a sample of the news digest that Peter Zeihan starts his day with: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-glimpse-into-our-daily-news-digest
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The recent discovery of TSMC chips in Huawei devices has revealed some gaps in the US sanctions on China.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tsmc-cuts-chinas-access-to-advanced-chips
Beijing has announced a hefty plan to help local Chinese governments refinance their debt. But is this enough to ward off the mounting debt crisis?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-china-save-itself-from-the-mounting-debt-crisis
PC or console? Yes, I'm talking about gaming preferences...and if you answered PC, then we all owe you a big thank you.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-gaming
Well, that didn't go the way I expected. Here's what happened...
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Link to graphics: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/election-postmortem
China is facing a demographic crisis, but can immigration be used to counter it?
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-immigration-solve-chinas-people-problem
I'm sure this isn't a shock, but a lot of folks have asked what I think of the incoming trump administrations cabinet nominations. Before I delve in Monday's video into the simple and forgiving world of American domestic politics, I think it would be best to review where this all began. In this special weekend edition we reach into the way-back machine and go back to New Year's 2021 when the world seemed so different, and so similar.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/remember-when-taking-it-back-to-2021
The nature of naval warfare is evolving - with advancing drone tech leading the charge - but not all of the world's navies and regions will be impacted the same.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-naval-tech-war-on-the-seas
Everyone grab your favorite road trip snack and pick out some good tunes, because today we're talking about the increasingly important I-35 corridor.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-one-road-propping-up-us-mexico-trade
The future for most of the BRIC countries is not - as Rihanna so eloquently put it - "shining bright like a diamond."
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/which-brics-member-will-survive
Some new advancements in AI and geology have revealed a massive lithium deposit in Arkansas's Smackover Formation (great name by the way). While this is good news, we still have a lot of work to do before this lithium sees the light of day.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/counting-lithium-chickens-before-they-hatch
Many of you have asked who my favorite US President is, so I figured I would do a video covering that. And we don't have to go too far back, just to number 41 - George H.W. Bush.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-favorite-us-president-of-all-time-is
As the election approaches, the topic of illegal immigration is getting as much airtime as Brittney Spears did in the early 2000s. And I hate to burst your bubble, but all those undocumented immigrants are probably doing more good than harm.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/undocumented-immigrants-impact-on-us-labor-and-economy
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the US dollar ain't going nowhere. There's simply no other currency with the volume or liquidity to fill the shoes of the dollar.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-a-brics-currency-replace-the-us-dollar
We're busting out the trusty ole crystal ball today, and looking at the two US regions most poised to succeed in the coming decades. I'm guessing it has something to do with the BBQ they're eating, so yes, we're talking about Texas and North Carolina.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-regions-of-the-future-texas-north-carolina
Israel has had a lot of eyes on it lately and many are starting to wonder what the future looks like for this small and arid country. Let's break this down through the lens of deglobalization.
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Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/america-after-the-election-foreign-policy
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Listen, I debated even entertaining an election video for today, but since this question was so good, I just had to record one.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/america-after-the-election-foreign-policy
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Now that we've had a bit more time to see what happened in Israel's latest attack on Iran, let's dive a bit deeper. Israel struck military facilities like missile storage and production sites, but avoided nuclear and oil infrastructure.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-attacks-iran-again-part-1-2
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Let's talk climate change. With conservative estimates, we're looking at a few degrees of warming by the end of the century, but if we look at this in the light of global trends, it could be even worse.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/climate-change-will-be-different-for-everyone
Today is the final day of our MedShare fundraiser! If you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare: https://bit.ly/medsharepatreon
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Russian "diplomats" are being expelled from Poland due to sabotage attempts.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russians-russians-everywhere-final-call-for-medshare-fundraiser
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Nuclear power has a bad reputation, and I get it...Chernobyl, nuclear waste, and outdated infrastructure. Buttt, it’s a reliable, carbon-free energy source that might be getting a much needed facelift soon-ish.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/smrs-are-giving-nuclear-power-a-facelift
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Cuba's power grid is collapsing. No, it's not because of US sanctions or socialism. This ongoing crisis can be blamed on Cuba's lack of investment into modernizing and its reliance on Soviet and Venezuelan fuel.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cubas-power-grid-fails-but-an-opportunity-arises
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Watch this video I sent out a year ago for a refresher on a few of these technologies and the limits to innovation. Here’s the link: https://youtu.be/fF4YTDsxcnc
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/spacex-takes-one-giant-leap-for-space-tech
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There's some growing concern in Europe that a Trump victory in the US election could lead to a decrease in support for Ukraine. Without the US backing them, many European countries might reach for nukes to deter any potential conflicts.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-saudi-arabia-start-an-oil-price-war-1709148
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My crystal ball is working overtime trying to figure out what the future of oil prices will look like. You've already heard one of the scenarios, but here's another POTENTIAL way this could play out.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-saudi-arabia-start-an-oil-price-war
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A couple more countries have joined the campaign trail to buildout their semiconductor industries: the United Arab Emirates and India. Let's break down the different approaches to this buildout and how they might turn out.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-uae-and-india-look-to-localize-semiconductor-manufacturing
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Given the recent conflict in the Middle East, I'm worried that an oil crisis could be brewing. The main players that might kick off the (next) Gulf War are Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-faces-deflation-as-economy-stutters
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Given the recent conflict in the Middle East, I'm worried that an oil crisis could be brewing. The main players that might kick off the (next) Gulf War are Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-next-gulf-war-is-coming
Patreon Link: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan
Still haven’t joined the Patreon? Well, if you don’t want to miss out on the Live Q&A, join “The Analyst” tier before next Wednesday, October 23rd! And if you needed another reason, if you join me on Patreon in the month of October, your subscription fees for the rest of the year will be donated to MedShare. Click here to join me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/my-recent-interview-on-borderlands-patreon
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President Biden is making a trip out to Africa (since recording, this trip has been postponed due to national weather issues). No, he's not going on safari; he's looking to shake some babies and kiss some hands over in Angola.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/president-biden-is-making-a-trip-to-angola
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We're hitting the backroads today and chatting about the small town of Spruce Pine, North Carolina. What this town lacks in population, it makes up in its (extremely important) quartz mines.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-a-small-town-in-nc-could-disrupt-global-semiconductor-production
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If you ever need to make an online dating profile, be sure to add "long walks on the beach discussing the economic challenges facing China" to the list...I promise you'll double the dates in no time.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-downward-spiral-of-the-chinese-economy
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Israeli defense systems are getting put through the ringer as of late, so let's talk through each of these systems, how they're doing, and what the US involvement looks like.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-effective-are-the-israeli-defense-systems
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I know everyone wants constant updates on the upcoming US election, and if you haven't figured this out by now, that's not really my shtick. However, I will offer a couple factors that could influence the outcome of this election.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-what-do-hurricanes-and-political-factions-have-in-common
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Reports coming out of South Korea indicate that North Korean troops could be deploying to Russia. These reports are unconfirmed, but the South Koreans aren't usually in the business of lying. So, what does this mean for the Ukraine War?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-the-koreans-are-coming-to-the-ukraine-war
This video was originally released on Patreon 1 week ago. If you want to see the videos as soon as they come out, join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan
Following my video on Iran's attacks from the other day, I feel it necessary to explore the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran's oil sector and the affect it would have on global markets.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/impacts-of-an-israeli-strike-on-irans-oil-sector
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Sanctions are not a new strategy to fight the Russians, but this round could be different...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-russian-sanctions-are-making-global-finance-spicy
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Russia has attacked three civilian ships carrying grain in Ukraine's southwest maritime corridor. This marks Russia's first major attack on commercial shipping, and a significant escalation of this war.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/medshare-donation-russia-strikes-three-commercial-ships
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Back to the picket lines we go...this time with the longshoreman. Ports across the East and Gulf Coasts of the US will impacted by the strike, disrupting nearly two-thirds of the imports and exports by water.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/longshoreman-on-strike-us-ports-get-shut-down
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Mexico's newly elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is settling into her new digs. Despite her qualifications and experience, will her leadership actually look all that different from former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/if-you-think-mexicos-new-government-is-a-problem-wait-until-you-see-its-solutions
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Our focus turns toward China today, specifically at the technological struggles facing the Chinese military and manufacturing industry. And yes, we're starting with the nuclear submarine that sank in port...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-navy-nukes-tech-and-politics
If you're looking for your daily does of Peter Zeihan...you're not going to find here this week. You'll have to head over to Patreon in order to get early access to all the videos, newsletters and exclusive content. (or you can wait for it to be released a week later on YouTube)
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Today, 9/30 is the last day before we officially launch the Patreon page! If you want to continue receiving timely videos and newsletters (as well as some exclusive extras) every weekday, then head on over and join the fun on Patreon.
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Russia has struggled to maintain a credible "red line" (referring to the point at which Putin will push the shiny red button) for quite a while now.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-threats-deterrence-and-the-war-of-numbers
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Hurricane Helene is heading toward the Big Bend of Florida and was set to make landfall around midnight last night. As a Category 3 storm, Helene is poised to make quite the splash, so here's what to keep an eye on.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hurricane-helene-patreon-info
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The US national debt is so high that it has exceeded 100% of GDP. We're talking over $35 trillion. Nice little chunk of change there. So, what led us to this point and how do we move forward?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-national-debt-kill-the-us-economy-patreon-launch
Things are heating up between Israel and Hezbollah, with both sides launching attacks on the other. This situation has intensified since Israel became a bit more sensitive to the Middle East’s normal methods of negotiations-via-explosions following the conflict in Gaza. Let's break this all down.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/defanging-hezbollah
The Sinaloa Cartel, once the dominant organized crime group in Mexico, is turning on itself. This is just another notch along the downward spiral of the Sinaloa Cartel since the arrest of El Chapo years back.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-civil-war-of-the-sinaloa-cartel
Ukraine has successfully attacked several major Russian ammunition depots, with explosions detectable hundreds of miles away. These strikes suggest Ukraine's war strategy is evolving...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/new-ukrainian-weapons-hit-russia-where-it-hurts
Its easy to sit up in an ivory tower and say immigration is always good because of the economic benefits; however, turning a blind eye to the social implications of immigration would be irresponsible in a well-rounded discussion. Here's what Canada and Germany have going on:
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/immigration-social-costs-vs-economic-benefits
If you haven't heard by now, a sophisticated Israeli operation targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon was carried out on September 17. While Israel has not officially claimed this attack, it appears to be the next chapter in the rising tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-you-should-ditch-your-pager-hezbollah-operative-edition
The US has become largely self-sufficient when it comes to oil, and it was never really reliant upon Saudi oil in the first place. Back in the day, the US formed a relationship with Saudi Arabia not for itself, but instead to provide US allies with oil during globalization. Times are changing and so is this relationship, so what does the future of Saudi Arabia look like?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-saudi-arabia
The most recent hurricane that tore through the Gulf of Mexico has sent ripples through the insurance industry thanks to all the property damage, but what will its impact on the energy sector look like?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hurricanes-in-the-gulf-offshore-oil-and-the-energy-sector
Taiwan has positioned itself as the dominant player in the semiconductor industry, but what would happen if a conflict with China broke out? Well, if semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities are top of mind, than sure, this should be of concern (but you should also be worried about the thousands of companies and locations that are nowhere near Taiwan that make up the vast bulk of the supply chain).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-does-the-future-hold-for-taiwan-and-semiconductors
Following its discovery in the 70s, the Cantarell oil field enabled Mexico to become a major oil producer. Decades of lax management and complacency by Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, together with the declining output of the Cantarell, has left the country with serious production problems.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-self-inflicted-downfall-of-mexican-energy
German regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia saw some of the country's far-right parties, including the Alternative for Germany, perform quite well. Don't sound the alarm bells yet, but this is yet another reminder of the ongoing economic and political issues in Germany.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-far-right-take-over-germany-again
Today we're looking at the importance of Telegram. No, we're not talking about the thing a telegraph sends. We're talking about the messaging platform created by Pavel Durov that's causing quite the stir as of late.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/telegram-and-the-limits-of-freedom-of-speech-on-social-media
Should people be able to say whatever they hell they want on social media? Brazil doesn't think so, at least when it comes to public misinformation. While most social media platforms have bent the knee, Musk and Twitter (now X) have held out.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-freedom-of-speech-extend-to-social-media-part-i
Today's video is fueled by Scott Base Vineyard in Cromwell, New Zealand. After all of the time I've spent in New Zealand, this is far and away my favorite winery.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-wine
Globalization led to the rise of China as a manufacturing powerhouse, since finding the lowest cost producer was the priority. However, deglobalization, coupled with China's demographic decline and aging workforce, has both eroded that competitive advantage and changed everyone’s priorities about cost. So, what happens next?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-will-soon-lose-the-title-of-worlds-manufacturer
Globalization has allowed us (meaning humans as a species) to make some of the worst lands farmable, inhabitable, and even prosperous. But what happens to global food exports when globalization ends?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/deglobalizations-impact-on-global-food-exports
Although climate change models are still evolving, historical climate data shows a clear warming trend. So, let's discuss the impacts of climate change, specifically who will be affected the most and who might even benefit from it.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-climate-change-be-the-death-of-wheat
If the green transition is ever going to work, it needs to happen everywhere. So, don't get your drawers in a bunch when you see green energy funds from the Inflation Reduction Act being invested in Red States.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-should-red-states-get-greentech-investments
*This video was recorded prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip in July. Guyana is a country we don't hear about too often, but its rise as an oil producer has earned it some air time. In particular, we'll be looking at the implications this carries for global oil markets.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-player-in-global-oil-markets-guyana
*This video was recorded in May of 2024. If you've read my book "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning" then you're well aware of the US stepping away from the Global Order. But what does life look for other countries once that happens?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-the-united-states-role-in-the-new-global-order
As a result of the power struggle between the two governments in Libya, roughly 70% oil production in the country has been shut down. This could significantly impact global oil supplies and is a glimpse at the instability within Libya.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/libyan-oil-gets-shut-down-over-government-duel
The Houthis attacked an oil tanker that had been previously abandoned in the Red Sea. They denotated charges, but only managed to start some fires (as of now). This lackluster attack isn't the scariest thing, but it does highlight the growing dangers of commercial shipping in the region.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-houthis-are-still-attacking-ships-in-the-red-sea
Sure, the Cubans and the Americans have some history, but who doesn't? If both sides can let that water pass under the bridge, what will Cuba's role in the North American system look like moving forward? *This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-cuba-integrate-with-north-america
There are lots of moving parts in the Ukraine War right now, so let's do a little recap of everything that's going on. There are four big ones...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-war-in-ukraine
*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. China and Russia seemingly enjoy having their fingers in the African pie, but what are they doing there? And should we be worried?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-are-china-and-russia-doing-in-africa
Ukraine has made a significant push into Russian territory, capturing roughly 1,000 square kilometers within the Kursk province. The Ukrainians also destroyed a handful of bridges that will hinder Russia's logistical support for Belgorod and complicate Russian reinforcement efforts.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-pushes-into-russia-yet-nukes-didnt-fly
We're going to group therapy today, and on the docket for discussion is what makes Americans so difficult to understand? Not in a weird accent kind of way, but in a "why are we the way that we are" kind of way. *This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/lifes-greatest-mystery-understanding-americans
*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. The Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - are taking one step closer to the Europeans with their upcoming electrical system swap. This switch from Russian to European electrical standards marks a significant shift for these nations.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-baltics-ditch-russia-for-european-integration
*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. The US Navy and its fleet of carriers (and super-carriers) haven't had much of a challenge on the seas since WWII. But of all things, it might be some low-tech jet ski bombs that change the way the world's navies operate.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/could-jet-ski-bombs-change-the-way-navies-operate
*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. Unless you want to start buying your guacamole in dime bags, the US better start looking for some new avocado "dealers". Yes, we're talking about the cartels’ involvement in the avocado supply chains in Mexico.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-mexican-cartels-are-double-dipping-in-the-guacamole
*This video was recorded during my backpacking trip through Yosemite in the end of July. How would you feel if you had a beautiful view of the coastline, but could only ever get out by the beach once per week? Well, now that employers can mandate a six-day work week in Greece, many are faced with that exact problem.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-six-day-work-week-save-greece
Myanmar doesn't often catch my attention, but with the ongoing civil war, I figured it was time to throw it into the mix. After years of civil unrest, is there a clear path to stability?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/myanmars-bleak-future-civil-war-and-ethnic-strife
There's no shortage of news coming out of the Middle East, but today we're going to look at the rising tensions between Israel and Iran and Iranian proxy Hezbollah.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tensions-rise-in-the-middle-east-but-dont-expect-war
The situation in Bangladesh has worsened, forcing the Prime Minister to flee the country. Let's recap what led us to this point and look at what the future might hold for Bangladesh and India.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/protests-cause-a-mass-exodus-of-bangladesh
It's time that we discuss the situation at the US - Mexico border. What's going on and how is it all going to shake out?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-border-crossings-is-mexico-the-solution
A forest fire near my home cut my backpacking trip short, but it did allow me to record some new videos. So, today we'll be looking at some recent developments in Ukraine.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-ukraine-claim-the-skies-and-destroy-russian-air-defenses
*This video was recorded before Peter’s backpacking trip in mid-July. Lesson of the day: if the Chinese government starts censoring a topic, it's probably time to start looking into that. Today, we'll be examining China's economy heading into 'garbage time'.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-garbage-time-of-history-chinas-economic-decline
*This video was recorded in May of 2024. We've all stared at the stars thinking about the different ways the Ukraine War could end, but could a coup or revolution in Russia be the way it goes down? It sounds great, but there's quite a few obstacles in the way.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/could-a-russian-revolution-end-the-ukraine-war
*This video was recorded in June of 2024. We're talking about a different kind of war today - Trade Wars. Specifically, we'll be looking at attempts by the US and EU to limit Chinese involvement in their electric vehicle markets.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-tariff-wars-the-eu-opens-a-new-front
I'm back home from Yosemite on a brief intermission to my summer backpacking trips, and wanted to issue an update on the Mexican Cartels. Specifically, we're talking about the arrest of Sinaloa leader, El Mayo.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-crack-in-the-north-american-drug-war
*This video was recorded in mid-July, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. As the baby boomers age into retirement and Gen Z fails to satisfy the gaping hole left in the labor market, will artificial intelligence be able to help mitigate some of the fallout?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-ai-replace-those-retiring-boomers
*This video was recorded in mid-July, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. I've been asked to address the claim that China has surpassed the US as a nuclear power. On paper, China might have the upper hand, but that doesn't always translate to real life.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-chinese-nuclear-tech-better-than-the-us
*This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip. There are reports coming out of Ukraine indicating that there has been a sharp uptick in Russian artillery losses. This data isn't confirmed, but it could be a good sign for Ukraine.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-targets-russias-most-important-weapon-artillery
*This video was recorded in May of 2024.
The potential of dragging the US into a major conflict is top of mind for a lot of Americans, but what would it actually take to get us there?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-the-us-looking-for-a-war
The conflict in Gaza has been raging on for nearly 300 days, and there is no end in sight. However, Israel is heavily reliant upon American tech and weapons and that relationship could be changing.
*This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-gaza-conflict-and-shifting-politics-in-israel
Today, we'll be looking at the recent European Commission presidential election and its broader implications for the Europeans.
*This video was recorded last week, prior to Peter departing on his backpacking trip (and prior to Biden leaving the race).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/yes-we-have-to-follow-elections-in-europe-too
There have been significant protests in Bangladesh over a law reserving a significant portion of government jobs for supporters of the 1971 independence revolution and their descendants. The job quota has been suspended, but protests continue.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/major-protests-break-out-in-bangladesh
Everyone wants to know if the assassination attempt on Donald Trump is going to impact the outcome of the election. I hate to break it to you, but no one knows.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/stop-obsessing-over-the-polls-and-take-a-hike-instead
The Republican Party is undergoing some evolutions at the moment, moving away from many of its traditional stances. This is part of a broader cycle in which American political parties shift and realign every few decades.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-changing-republican-party
Well, it looks like the Germans are going to be celebrating Christmas in July. That's due to the US and Germany's decision made at the NATO conference to redeploy American mid-range weaponry to Germany. And yes, this hasn't happened since the Cold War for…historic reasons.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-cold-war-missiles-return-to-germany-thanks-to-russia
The EU was established to promote unity and peace, but times have changed and priorities have shifted. So, what does the future of the European Union look like and how does France fit into the mix?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-french-lead-the-eu-into-the-future
On Saturday, July 13, there was an attempted assassination of Donald Trump. I'm not here to give you the play-by-play that you can get from the news, instead I want to put this incident into context of the broader political and economic shifts.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/assassination-attempt-and-a-changing-world
After the first round of European Parliament elections, the French far-right (represented by the National Rally) had a great showing. President Macron wasn't too happy with that outcome, so he called snap elections to give his party a second shot at capturing a majority.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-should-europe-worry-about-the-french-elections
Next up on our list of important elections around the globe is the Iranian presidential elections. We'll be looking at Iran's new President-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, and what his victory might mean for the country.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/irans-president-elect-sparks-change-but-how-much
In case you've been buried neck deep in US political news, there are some fairly important elections taking place across the globe. For the first country in our little global election coverage, we'll be looking at the United Kingdom.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/uk-elections-starting-over
I get a lot of "what if..." and "what happens next..." style questions and most of them suck, but today's question takes us down a fairly interesting rabbit hole - what happens to China if Chairman Xi Jinping dies or steps down?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-after-xi
While the Italians may have mastered the arts of pasta, wine and gelato, they should have been spending less time in the kitchen and more in...another room. That's right, we're looking at the demographic problems facing Italy, and Genoa will be our example.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-genoa-is-graying-italys-demographic-decline
For all the hungover Americans out there, I heard the best cure after a long day of drinking is to talk about inflation. Well, maybe it will just make your head hurt more, but you still have the weekend ahead of you to relax...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-federal-reserve-and-its-inflation-target
If you watched the presidential debate last week, I'm sure you're really, really excited for the election this year! Since so many of you wanted me to talk about this fever dream we're living in, I figured we'd do it on Independence Day.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-senior-home-showdown-delusional-biden-vs-demented-trump
Despite most countries in the West wanting to rid themselves of any involvement with the Russians, the oil revenues continue to flow into Russian pockets. So why haven't Western countries dropped the hammer on Russian oil exports?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-west-cant-quit-russian-oil
The Israeli Supreme Court just ruled that the ultra-Orthodox community will no longer get exemption from military service. This addresses a number of long-standing issues, but it could spell trouble for Netanyahu's political career.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-more-military-exemption-for-israeli-ultra-orthodox
In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years - due to differing national priorities - but Russia's invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strengthen-the-weimar-triangle
In the post-Cold War world, France, Germany and Poland concocted the Weimar Triangle as a way to foster cooperation amongst the three countries. The trio has weakened over the years - due to differing national priorities - but Russia's invasion of Ukraine might necessitate getting the gang back together.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strengthen-the-weimar-triangle
China has been the global manufacturing hub for decades, but what happens if that goes away? If and when China experiences a significant collapse, someone will have some big shoes to fill, but who can do it?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-manufacturing-where-and-why
Europe has been taking a beating lately, from economic issues to demographic problems, but there's a new one on the horizon. When the Ukraine War wraps up, what will the European energy situation look like?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-europeans-are-having-some-gas-problems
If there's anything Putin's good at, its pressing the West's buttons...and his latest trip to North Korea is no exception. However, by signing a new defense pact with Kim Jong Un, Putin might inadvertanly gain Ukraine a new supporter.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/backfire-putins-north-korean-joyride
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
There are only a few days left in our MedShare donation matching drive for the month of June. $100,000 in donations will be matched this month to our chosen charity partner, MedShare International.
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
Last week, I talked about how Ukraine has been targeting Russian air infrastructure to prepare for the arrival of their F-16s. Well, Ukraine launched a rocket attack on occupied Crimea and destroyed some air defenses and one of Russia's deep space satellite communication stations.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russians-in-space
Micro-States like Monaco and San Marino aren't often included in major geopolitical discussions, but every so often they get called up to the big leagues. Next up to the plate: San Marino.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/exploring-the-geopolitics-of-micro-states
With Russian President Vladimir Putin heading to Vietnam, some American security experts are getting concerned about the future of the US-Vietnam relationship. To understand why the Vietnamese are working with Russia, we need to take a quick history lesson.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/mr-putin-goes-to-hanoi
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
If you ask a fifth grader what the key to being a good spy is, they would likely respond with some variation of being sneaky or concealing your identity. Well, on today's episode of "Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader", we're placing Russian Spies in the hot seat.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-and-the-changing-nature-of-the-spy-game
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
If you don't want to start your day with beautiful beach views and economic forecasts, you may want to skip the video. Today we'll be discussing recent changes to the US economy and what future impacts might look like.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/strong-american-growth-and-something-to-worry-about
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
Ukraine is gearing up for one of its most important offensives to date, but what makes this one so different from the rest?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-f-16s-offensives-and-abject-humiliation
For years I’ve warned that a war between Russia and Ukraine was inevitable, but why didn't Putin just play the nuke card? As an add-on, we'll also be touching on some new Russian alliances that could rub the US the wrong way.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-did-russia-choose-invasion-over-nukes
The recent European elections yielded some significant gains for hard-right parties in a number of countries. Today, we'll be focusing on Germany, Italy, and France, and whether these shifts are game-changers or more political minutia.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/major-european-powers-lean-right-in-recent-elections
After years of mismanagement and corruption, Venezuela may have finally reached its tipping point.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-impending-collapse-of-venezuela
During my European travels, I've received a handful of questions regarding the lack of support for Ukraine coming from Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary. So, let's address why these countries are holding out amid the Russian invasion.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/austria-slovakia-and-hungary-ignore-ukraine
Donate to MedShare: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
We've got a few more elections to talk about today, and who knows, maybe the US might even learn something from South Africa and India.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/elections-in-south-africa-and-india
I know there's plenty of issues with the American political system, but let's take a break from all that and talk about European politics for the day. Given the ongoing European Parliament elections, let’s look at the far-right’s footholds in Europe.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-rise-of-the-european-far-right
Donate to MedShare Here: https://www.medshare.org/zeihan-impact/
I’m pleased to announce our donation matching drive for the month of June. We will be matching up to $50,000 in donations this month to our chosen charity partner, MedShare International.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/announcing-our-june-medshare-donation-match
The most recent Mexican elections have resulted in the victory of Mexico's first female -and- Jewish leader, Claudia Sheinbaum. She will be succeeding current populist President AMLO, but how much change will this actually bring?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-mexicos-new-president-just-a-puppet-for-amlo
It’s time for an update on the situation in the Red Sea and what the Houthis have been up to as of late. Spoiler alert: most of the ships are taking the longer route around Africa, but there's a handful still navigating this region.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/danger-in-the-red-sea-who-shall-the-houthis-let-pass
There’s no shortage of things to worry about in this world, but there’s a few things that live rent free in my mind. On June 5th at 12:00 pm EST, I’ll be opening up Pandora’s Box and sharing my biggest fears in regards to the American economic system.
Register for the Webinar Here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_joptrlQGTlmEQ-oAiVlcTA#/registration
From the beginning of the Ukraine War, the Western nations have placed restrictions on how their weapons donations to Ukraine can be used. Specifically, Western nations have been concerned that if Ukraine targets Russian forces within Russia, escalation may be unavoidable. But recent events have forced a change of calculus in the West.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-opens-up-on-belgorod
Well, we've all heard the news at this point. Trump is a FELON, after being convicted on 34 counts of financial fraud related to hiding his affair. So, can Trump spin this "publicity" in a positive light or will it bite him in the ass come November?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-former-president-trump-make-felonies-great-again
The Western world is beginning to entertain the conversation over the use of Western weapons targeting Russian systems within Russia. There are a handful of countries that have issued their support, but will it be enough?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-the-west-greenlight-strikes-inside-russia
Register for the Risk List Webinar: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_joptrlQGTlmEQ-oAiVlcTA#/registration
We're looking at the Ukraine War and the increase of drone assaults on Russia. Specifically, we'll be looking at the attacks on container radars used for aircraft and ballistic missile detection.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-drone-attacks-on-russian-container-radars
If you're planning a coast-to-coast road trip through the US, you might want to wait until the Biden administration can liquidate the northeast gasoline reserves, here's why...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-biden-admin-liquidates-northeast-gas-reserves
I've avoided talking about the Israel and Gaza conflict as much a possible (given that there's no favorable outcomes for anyone involved), but some recent changes have forced my hand.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-much-extended-agony-of-israel-and-gaza
It's no surprise that the French like to be "involved" in as many places as possible, but what's going on with the current rebellion in the French protectorate of New Caledonia?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/france-and-azerbaijan-fighting-over-new-caledonia
Today we'll be looking at why the French are considering sending military aid to Armenia...and no, its not because they're looking to swap croissant and nazook recipes.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-are-the-french-getting-involved-with-armenia
We've got some more interview style questions for you today! We'll be focusing on China, specifically looking at the potential for Chinese energy independence and if any countries surrounding China should be worried about an invasion/resource grab.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-is-the-future-of-chinese-expansion-and-energy
Other than a slight bump in sales during the holidays (shoutout to all the naughty kids), coal has been on the decline for quite a while now. With more environmentally friendly alternatives surging into the spotlight, how does coal fit into the energy framework?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-us-is-ditching-coal-as-an-energy-source
I've started hearing rumblings about the American power grid and vulnerability to cyber attacks. Sure there's been hiccups throughout the years, but this one isn't keeping me up at night.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-the-us-power-grid
Iranian State media has confirmed the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi May 19th, following the crash of his helicopter over Iranian Azerbaijan.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iranian-president-ebrahim-raisi-is-dead
Everyone is talking about Iran's potential development of an active nuclear weapon. Before anyone gets too frightened at the prospect of this announcement, let me give you some food for thought.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/does-iran-actually-have-a-nuclear-weapon
On Wednesday May 15, there was an assassination attempt on Slovakia's Prime Minister, Robert Fico. At the time of recording, the PM was still in critical condition and there's no clear political group or foreign entity claiming responsibility.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/assassination-attempt-on-slovakias-prime-minister
We've got another question for our Ask Peter series today: What are the long-term impacts to Western interests of the recent political upheaval in West Africa/the Sahel, especially given the break in security partnerships with the United States and Paris?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-politics-and-peace-in-west-africa
Some hefty tariffs have just been placed on many Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar panels, and more. This is an attempt to prevent China from dominating industries that the US wants to develop.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-us-places-huge-tariffs-on-chinese-imports
Well, I hate to say it, but Putin might actually be making a solid strategic move by removing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from office.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/putin-removes-defense-minister
We've got some new players in the global weapons trade, and let's just say that I prefer the old gun runners.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/adventures-in-gun-running-iran
Who doesn't love spending their morning trying to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing? Oh, no takers? Well, let's at least look at inflation trends and where I expect interest rates to go.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/much-higher-interest-rates-for-much-much-longer
Well, it looks like there's something in the water in the US and it ain't little blue pills. The recent US Census data shows a 40-year low in the birth rate - about 1.6 per woman.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-birth-rates-plummet-to-40-year-low
The Japanese have looked into their crystal ball and figured out that a close relationship with the Americans is the only way forward. Before Japan is welcomed in with open arms, they'll have to prove their worth...
Register for The State of Global Energy Webinar: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_zVirSodfSYyFoKNFiA6VpA#/registration
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-japan-needs-a-us-alliance
We're finally seeing signs of life in Congress with the recent progress made on the establishment of a domestic uranium supply chain. This move aims to cut dependence on the Russians - who dominate global uranium processing.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/americas-nuclear-supply-chain
Register for The State of Global Energy Webinar here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_zVirSodfSYyFoKNFiA6VpA#/registration
The newest Chinese aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has officially hit the seas. This a major development for the Chinese Navy, but still falls short when compared to with advanced counterparts (i.e. the US).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/webinar-the-new-chinese-carriers
The Russians are playing dress up with their tanks and it might reveal where the future of military conflict is heading. Okay, "dress up" might not be the right term, but just google a picture of the Russian turtle tanks to get an idea of what I'm talking about.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/warfare-innovations-russias-turtle-tanks
A little over a year ago, we discussed a potential ban on TikTok in the US. Well, President Biden finally signed the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act", which would ban TikTok or force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell it.
Full Video and Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-tiktok-ban-is-almost-here
Over the weekend, some Texans had a not-so-friendly reminder that their power grid doesn't work well under stress. This is just one of many outages and electricity challenges that Texas will face in the coming years.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/power-outages-in-texas-and-growing-energy-demands
The Japanese Navy is getting a face lift with the conversion of the Izumo-class destroyers into small supercarriers capable of holding F-35s (compliments of the US).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/japans-navy-gets-teeth
RFK II has a presidential name, but I don't think he'll be finding himself in that position this go around. However, he does have the opportunity to cause some problems for Trump in the process.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-rfk-jr-shake-up-the-2024-presidential-election
As the ice begins to melt in the Arctic, will the Russians be able to establish a shipping route to the north? While establishing a northern sea route is possible, it won't be the gold mine its been made out to be.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-will-the-russians-create-a-great-northern-sea-route
Energy independence has been a global priority over the past few decades, but not all of that black gold is created equal. The US has been able to capitalize on deposits of oil-bearing shale, so can others replicate this success with different types of oil?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-can-other-countries-replicate-the-us-shale-revolution
Tensions between Israel and Iran have been escalating since the Hamas attacks in October, but are we going to see a full blown war between these two adversaries?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-and-iran-avoid-warfor-now
This is probably the scariest video I've posted for any of my Gen Z audience...that's right, we're talking about the one thing they can't live without - the internet. So, just how vulnerable is the global internet?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-do-and-dont-worry-about-global-internet
When people start talking about wars over water, everyone pictures tooth and nail, Mad Max-esqe fighting...but our imaginations might be getting away from us here. Allow me to paint a more realistic picture for you.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-water-wars
Today, we're talking about the "unstoppable" hypersonic missiles that the Russians have been hyping up over the past few years. Spoiler alert: this is just the handy work of the hyperbolic-Russian-propaganda-machine.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-hypersonic-missiles-unstoppable-or-skeet-practice-for-ukraine
It looks like the Europeans may have figured out that Russia’s war plans don’t end in Ukraine, so more and more countries are beginning to send aid to the Ukrainians. The Americans, however, are still working through flawed economics and political considerations.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/jets-drones-refineries-europe-remembers-geopolitics
The Russians are employing some new tactics in Ukraine's Eastern front that are adding to their ever-growing list of war crimes committed throughout this conflict. We're looking at glide bombs targeting civilian infrastructure and Russia's 'double-tap' method.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/new-russian-tactics-glide-bombs-and-double-tap
In the early hours of April 14, Iran - both directly and through its many proxies - launched the largest missile and drone assault on the Israeli state since at least the 1973 Yom Kippur war. It was quite a show.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iran-attacks-israel-sort-of
I often talk about the importance of demographics for countries, but do high birth rates always equate to population growth?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-high-birth-rates-solve-demographic-problem
Since I'm here in Ohio, why not talk about what makes this region so unique. Today, we'll be discussing how shale in Ohio has propelled economic growth in an unfamiliar way.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ngls-ohios-plastics-industrys-juicy-secret
With the recent attack on Moscow, I received some requests to do a breakdown on the geopolitics of ISIS. First things first, there are two largely unaffiliated groups at play here – ISIS-Khorasan and the more widely known, ISIS.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/geopolitics-of-terror-groups-isis-and-isis-khorasan
Germany has had a streak hotter than the '96 Chicago Bulls. The German economic model has contributed to European political, economic, and industrial success, but problems are on the horizon.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-do-worry-about-a-post-germany-europe
I've gotten a handful of questions regarding Venezuela invading the South American state of Guyana due to economic challenges and oil discoveries. The short answer is that I'm not worried about this, but here's three reasons why.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-venezuela-invade-guyana-for-oil
The Ukrainians are getting creative and finding ways to launch longer-range attacks on Russian infrastructure. We've already seen strikes on pipeline nexuses and chemical complexes as deep as Samara and Tatarstan.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/apparently-a-cessna-and-elbow-grease-is-all-ukraine-needs
Ukrainian agricultural exports are finally having the boot lifted from their throats thanks to new tariffs on certain goods in the EU and Ukraine's adoption of water based drones.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-tariffs-and-drones-saved-ukrainian-agriculture
At this point, we've all heard about the Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapsing in Baltimore on March 26. While it may seem like this should drastically impact American shipping, I'm really not worried about it...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-i-dont-care-about-the-fallen-bridge-in-baltimore
If mommy and daddy told you to go college and then you'd be set for life...you're not alone. With traditional models pushing everyone towards white-collar jobs and university degrees, we've created a massive oversupply of finance bros...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-do-worry-about-higher-education
There's been recent discussions by French President Macron regarding deploying French troops to Ukraine. Is this really going to happen and why would they do this?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-are-the-french-up-to-in-ukraine
The new face of military technology is here...and no its not some Master Chief type suit running around the battlefield. We're talking about the democratization of tech applications and the empowerment of individual soldiers to make strategic decisions.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-new-face-of-military-technology
The Japanese have just announced an interest rate increase to a whopping 0.1% after seventeen years of zero to negative interest rates. So, is this a sign of a return to normality for Japan or is something else going on?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/japan-zero-no-more
More details have emerged about the March 22 terror attack outside Moscow. The information does not look good, with the biggest takeaway being the Russian government's showcasing of a shocking incompetence in security matters. That will haunt this regime until the day it falls.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-rising-incompetence-of-the-russian-system
Late evening on Friday, March 22 local time, three gunman attacked a concert venue in a Moscow suburb, setting it ablaze and killing an as-yet-unknown number of civilians.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/terror-attack-at-concert-hall-in-moscow-suburb
We're all quite familiar with the concept of inflation, but inflation's dark and twisted sister -deflation- doesn't come out of his shell all that often. So, for our next episode of 'Things I Worry About' we're talking about deflation.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-do-worry-about-deflation
We tend to overlook the dynamics of demography and its economic impact, so let's take a step back and break down demographics by generation and how that will dictate the future of our economies.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-shrinking-populations-determine-economic-growth
It should come as no surprise that the Russians love meddling around, so let's see what they've been up to lately. We'll be looking at tech transfers with Iran, North Korea, and China and Russian propaganda in the US.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-tech-transfers-and-propaganda-in-the-us
The Ukrainians have made some huge strides in the maritime theater and have poked some eyebrow raising holes in Russia's naval capabilities.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukraine-war-goes-seaborn
Some European economists came up with a super-duper-hyper-revolutionary solution to the green problem...just use less energy! Crazy, right? Before we write off this idea completely, let's break it down.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/does-a-green-future-lower-energy-usage
In this episode, we'll be discussing a wide array of topics, including labor problems and AI's impact on labor markets, challenges associated with chip shortages, differences between developing and developed countries, China's future, and more.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/question-time-with-peter-zeihan-episode-4
Ukraine has been ramping up drone strikes and they just successfully hit another refining complex in Russia. The strike on the Nizhny Novgorod complex triggered a major fire and caused significant damage to storage units as well as other refining equipment. The pipeline network, however, remains intact.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-drone-strike-hits-refining-complex-deep-in-russia
In President Biden's State of the Union address a few days ago, he announced plans to build a floating dock to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. This dock would help provide significant food supplies to this area, but at what cost?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-wtf-moment-in-the-middle-east
We've seen both sides of the conflict in Ukraine adopting and adapting new ways of fighting. While Ukraine has innovated with drones and satellite tech, Russia has modified its large FAB-1500 dumb bombs into glide bombs.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-bombs-get-an-upgrade
The House of Representatives is looking like dysfunctional family as of late, and of course, the weird uncle stirring up the pot is the Greenpeace faction. Opposing nearly every bill that dares to exist, they've essentially halted all legislative proceedings.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-faint-glimmer-of-hope-in-the-house-of-representatives
One of the most asked questions I receive is "what keeps you up at night?" So, I figured I would turn that question into a series called "Things I (Don’t) Worry About" where I'll discuss all the things that have me tossing and turning and what helps me sleep like a rock. First on the docket is the semiconductor industry.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/things-i-dont-worry-about-collapse-of-the-semiconductor-industry
We've all been hearing sci-fi tales of quantum computing for decades now, but what will its impact actually look like and how soon can we expect it?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/quantum-computing-and-the-future-of-technology
In this episode, we'll be discussing the complex relationship between China and Taiwan, China’s struggle with youth unemployment, and a look back at some of my predictions from 2023.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/question-time-with-peter-zeihan-episode-3
I was scanning the financial news this morning and realized Germany was in recession. In my morning brief I was informed Japan was in recession as well. On a call with a client someone brought up that the United Kingdom had joined the downers club. A quick convo with the staff revealed the same was true for Hungary and Ireland. And Greece and Lithuania and Estonia and Finland. Israel probably as well, while Australia, New Zealand, France, Spain and Italy are only a rounding error away. China’s data, such that it is, suggests that the Middle Kingdom is by most definitions at best recession-adjacent.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/recession-for-almost-everyone
If you've seen the videos of tractors driving through city centers and spraying manure on government buildings, then you're well aware of the farmer protests happening throughout Europe...but why are they protesting?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/europes-latest-s-show-farmers-on-strike
In a marked shift away from the historical relationship between Israel and Moscow, Israel plans to send early warning radar to Ukraine. The details of this plan are still unconfirmed, but let's break it down.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-and-russia-fall-out-kindle
Before I take the stage at the Country Music Hall of Fame here in Nashville, I figured we should talk about the future of tourism and where all the bachelorette parties are heading next.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/tourism-trends-where-are-you-spending-vacation
For all those with an aversion to woodchippers...today's video is for you. That's right, I'm in Fargo, North Dakota and we're discussing the state's agricultural prowess despite a lack of water access.
Ask Peter A Question: https://zeihan.com/ask-peter/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-north-dakota-love-story
In this episode, we'll be discussing immigration in Germany, the Hamas-Israel conflict, agricultural challenges in Sudan and South Africa, the UK's trade relationship with the US post-Brexit, the future of blue-collar work and productivity enhancement through automation and AI.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/question-time-with-peter-zeihan-episode-2
I've had a lot of you write in concerned about Chinese land purchases in the United States. There's not much to be concerned about here, but let me paint the full picture for you.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/should-we-worry-about-chinese-land-purchases-in-the-us
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has indicated that Sweden accession to NATO shall be ratified by the Hungarian Parliament before March 1, which means Sweden will soon be welcomed into the alliance as a full member.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/sweden-in-nato-recap
During a rally last week, former President Donald Trump stated that European allies that do not contribute enough to NATO (in his eyes) would not receive support if Russia were to attack them. Regardless of where you stand on this issue, we need to consider the repercussions of the US stepping away from the NATO alliance.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/europe-goes-nuclear-is-america-leaving-nato
Today's entry into our 'Post American' series is a country with a complex political, economic and security landscape. Its a country forged from colonialism that is comprised of diverse ethnic groups coexisting under a single political entity - Nigeria.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/nigeria-after-america
Alexei Navalny, a prominent political prisoner and Putin critic, died in a harsh Siberian prison. This prison was a former Soviet-era gulag, so no real surprise there...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-dies-in-prison
This is the first episode of our new series called 'Question Time with Peter Zeihan!' Every week or so I'll be sitting down with one of the team members from Zeihan on Geopolitics and have them dish out some rapid-fire questions from the 'Ask Peter' forum.
Ask Questions Here: https://zeihan.com/ask-peter/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/question-time-with-peter-zeihan-episode-1
For those with daddy issues, today's installment in the 'Post American' series might be a bit triggering. If you're still reading, we'll be looking at the UK's economic and security dilemmas as the global order falls.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-united-kingdom-after-america
The Greens are celebrating and the oil industry is kicking and screaming over the Biden administration's decision to pause the review process of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. However, this decision’s actual impact is microscopic.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-biden-administration-blocks-lng-exports-sorta
At this point you’ve all seen or heard about Tucker Carlson’s interview with Putin (if you haven’t…you didn’t miss much). This was the first time Putin has spoken to an American “journalist” since his military invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/putins-puppet-show
The semiconductor industry is one of ever-growing importance and its leaders—Intel and TSMC—are now fighting to be the first to bring the next generation of advanced chips to market.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-bleeding-edge-of-semiconductors
This conversation took place on October 5th, 2023 at the North Capital Forum 2023 in Mexico City. We discussed the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for North America.
This is an interview with Enrique Perret, Managing Director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation (USMF) & President and Founder, North Capital Forum (NCF).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/crazy-little-thing-called-geopolitics
Some of you out there might grovel when the first snowflakes of the season fall, but I'd be willing to bet that the geopolitical significance of that snow hasn't crossed your mind. Today, we'll be exploring winters impact on agriculture and global food security.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-geopolitics-of-winter
This next country might surprise some of you, but deglobalization might give Poland its moment of fame. That's if they play their cards right, and even then, it will be a fleeting moment, but a moment in the spotlight nonetheless.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/poland-after-america
The Middle East has been a thorn in the side for the US since day one, so why haven't the Americans just abandoned ship? To understand why the US is still involved in the Middle East (and openly facing these potshot-esqe attacks), we need to breakdown this region...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-middle-east-is-so-aggravating
Today, we're looking at another region that the US will continue to keep tabs on - East Asia. This is one of those regions that will be plenty exciting in coming years, so let's jump in.
This video was recorded in the fall of 2023.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/east-asia-after-america
Today's discussion comes to you from Huron Peak. We'll discuss one of the middle powers that's been dealt a bad hand: Romania. At first glance, Romania's geographic situation looks alright - a nice chunk of land near some water bracketed by the Carpathian Mountains - but zoom in, and you'll find three very troubling access points.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/romania-after-america
No matter how much bubble wrap and caution tape we slap onto global maritime shipping, the industry has found itself in quite a predicament.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-collapse-of-global-maritime-shipping
Evergrande, formerly China’s largest property developer, has just declared bankruptcy and the fallout is going to be massive. Let’s look at how we got to this point and some potential paths forward.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-chinese-housing-crisis-evergrandes-bankruptcy
Three US soldiers were killed in a drone attack carried out by an Iranian militia near the Jordan-Syria border. I expect a timely retaliation by the US, but what will that look like?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-us-and-iran-deciding-what-to-bomb
We are taking a question from the 'Ask Peter' forum today - am I worried about Ukraine's dwindling weapon's supplies in light of what's going on with the US Congress? Yes, yes I am.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-congress-dysfunction-blocking-aid-to-ukraine
Finnish politics are not something that often make the headlines, but with a marked shift away from “Finlandization” (when a smaller country remains neutral to appease a larger and more powerful neighboring country) comes some unfamiliar coverage.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/finnish-presidential-elections-and-anti-russian-sentiment
Ukraine managed to sneak some drones by Russian air defenses and hit the Ust-Luga oil refinery and loading facility. The attack didn't cause significant damage, but it disrupted production and shipping operations.
Ask Peter your question here: https://zeihan.com/ask-peter/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-attacks-russian-energy-terminal
Today we're talking about the Indians and pirates - sorry sports fans, not those ones. India launched a successful counter-piracy operation off the coast of Somalia, which has helped reaffirm its global strategic importance, but raised some eyebrows in the process.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/indias-counter-piracy-operation-a-geopolitical-wormhole
Today, we're looking at the US natural gas market based on energy data from 2023. The US natural gas market was remarkably stable in 2023, so being the world's largest producer and exporter of natural gas has its perks.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-natural-gas-and-global-energy-supplies
The largest Greentech power generation system in the hemisphere is under construction in New Mexico. SunZia has raised $11 billion for this project and aims to generate 3.5 gigawatts of wind power for the NM, AZ, and CA energy markets.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-to-do-greentech-well-the-sunzia-wind-farm
We're talking about an area in northern Europe fractured by history - the Scandinavian region. What was once a series of powerful and interconnected Viking port cities has been a fairly sleepy backwater for the past 300 years...but it might be time for a family reunion.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/scandinavia-after-america
With cold fronts rushing through much of the country, the Texas power grid had lots of eyes on it this past week. Thankfully, some "updates" over the past couple years have helped the Texans avoid catastrophe.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/texas-did-not-fall-down-energy-grid-updates
When one of your best options for securing an energy supply route is with the Pakistani Taliban, you know you've got some problems. So go ahead and add that one to China's ever-growing list of 'shit to figure out.'
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-energy-problem
We're back with part two of Russia's missile-sourcing escapade. Today we're looking at the specifics of these North Korean missiles and their significance.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/north-korean-missiles-heading-to-russia-part-two
The Russian military industrial complex can't keep up with the demands of the Ukraine War, so the Russians are sourcing large quantities of short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea and Iran.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-are-the-russians-shopping-for-missiles
Next on the list in our 'Post-American' series is Sub-Saharan Africa. This region is filled with geographical challenges, slow growth and development, and several other obstacles, but a handful of countries will be alright.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/sub-saharan-africa-after-america
Things in the Red Sea have ramped up yet again. The Houthis, who are an Iranian-backed Shiite group in Yemen, launched a series of missile and drone attacks on international shipping. Early today, the United States conducted a retaliatory air assault on Houthi targets.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-navy-strikes-houthi-forces-in-yemen
I had a handful of y'all point out that not everyone in the recent Chinese purges was targeted for political reasons; instead, many of these folks are facing corruption charges.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-extensive-is-the-corruption-in-the-chinese-military
Xi Jinping is doing his best Darth Vader impression and has the Chinese military in a force choke. After purging the system of anyone who can think, all that remains is the shell of a Defense Minister (now a press secretary for military diplomacy) and the "real" decision makers - the Central Military Commission - chaired by none other than Xi himself.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chairman-xi-jinping-guts-the-chinese-military
No proper discussion of American politics is complete without mentioning the Independents. While their voting patterns have been historically predictable, Trump has Independents shaking things up a bit.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-power-do-the-independents-have-over-trump
If you watched yesterday's video, then you already know that Donald Trump has no shot at winning the general election (assuming he's not DQ'd or in jail). Today, we're looking at WHY Trump can't get elected.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-breakdown-of-the-republican-coalition
As I recorded this video on January 6th - it was inevitable that we'd be talking about Trump's involvement in the insurrection. Specifically, we're breaking down the Colorado Supreme Court ruling disqualifying him from running for office. I'll try to keep my opinions on this situation to myself, but Trump's challenging of the state-level prerogatives is too ironic not to mention.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trumps-disqualification-how-we-got-here
Arguably the most brutal battle of the Ukraine War is now in its fourth month: the battle of Avdiivka. Let’s take a deep look at its strategic importance for both sides.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukraine-war-the-battle-of-avdiivka
There's been a bombing in Iran that targeted the gathering for the four-year anniversary of Qasem Soleimani's death. The attack resulted in at least 100 deaths and another 100+ injuries.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/bombing-in-iran-at-soleimanis-death-anniversary
The Australians are one of the few countries that will stay under the United States' wing as the Order collapses, but they have a few things to figure out first.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/australia-after-america
Next up in our ‘Post-America’ series is Argentina. I'm pretty optimistic about Argentina's future...they just need to get out of their own way.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/argentina-after-america
Countries across the globe have all benefited from the global order, but what happens when it comes crashing down? Thankfully for India, they are one of the few countries that will avoid much of the suffering.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/india-after-america
Today's country shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Sure, Turkey has been relatively silent over the past 70 years, but as American guardianship of the global seas declines, Turkey will reemerge as a dominant power.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/turkey-after-america
For our next installment in the 'Post-American' series, we're looking at Northern Africa. This region only has a few countries that will turn out alright and a lot that will hurt for some time.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/northern-africa-after-america
A US federal grand jury has voted to issue indictments against a handful of ethnic Indians (with alleged ties to the Indian government) who the US Department of Justices claims participated in an assassination program in North America.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/indias-assassination-program-in-north-america
We're diving a little deeper into Israel for the next video in our 'Post-American' series. We'll discuss their transition into a world without the US around and what domestic and international challenges they might face.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/israel-after-america
Today, we're looking at the Great White North. While they're near the US, they still have plenty of issues to sort out before seeing a clear path to success in a deglobalized world.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/canada-after-america
In a departure from its post-WWII stance, Germany plans to establish a permanent military deployment in Lithuania. Looks like it might be time to bust out the caution tape...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/germany-becomes-terrifyingly-normal
Ahhh, Western Europe. A region with no shortage of history, but how will they move forward into a deglobalized world? Let's just say Germany will soon be replaced as the dominant regional power.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/western-europe-after-america
If any of the gifts you ordered have to go through the Red Sea, it might be time to buy a backup. If you haven't heard, there has been a series of attacks carried out by Yemeni militants on commercial shipping.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/shipping-and-the-red-sea
To kick off our 'Post-American' series, we'll be looking at the Middle East. The best way to break this down is into three chunks: the role of the US as it leaves, the role of regional powers as they rise, and the role extra-regional powers might play.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-middle-east-after-america
The end of 2023 is approaching, and that means I owe you all a gift. Sorry to disappoint, but it's not an all-expenses-paid vacation to BoraBora. Instead, I've thrown together a 'Post-America' series that breaks down what the world looks like as the US steps back as global protector.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/getting-ready-for-a-post-american-world
I've got some good news and some bad news on inflation in the US...one has to do with COVID, and the other is about the labor market. Which do you want first?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/inflation-whats-causing-it-and-why
The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, is getting right down to business. It's only his first week on the job, and he's already cut government ministries in half, dismissed public officials, halted public works, and devalued the currency by 50%.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ailing-argentine-economy
There's been much discussion lately surrounding the changing power balances in the Pacific - specifically the dynamics between the US Navy and the Chinese navy.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/naval-power-in-the-pacific
We all know Mother Nature saved Europe's behind last year, but that won't be the story this year. So, let's break down the potential impacts on energy supplies across Europe.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/europes-cold-winter-threatens-energy-supplies
We're checking in on Ukraine today, looking back at our MedShare donation/match from the month of November, and chatting about my new book...oh and maybe Cindy Crawford too!!!
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-medshare-cindy-crawford-and-a-new-book
The schoolyard bullies are back at it again. Russia is funneling waves of migrants into the Finnish border, and China has wreaked havoc on the Gulf of Finland by dragging an anchor across the sea floor.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-and-china-gang-up-on-finland
The Google-backed company, Fervo Energy, has launched two geothermal projects that use preexisting shale technology and infrastructure to generate electricity. Could this be a partial solution to the looming electricity shortage?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/generating-geothermal-energy-using-shale-technology
There's been a series of explosions along one of the main lines of the Trans-Siberian rail network. To fully understand the significance of these attacks, we must look at Russian exports, alternative options, and what maintenance looks like.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/economic-warfare-in-siberia
COP28, the United Nations Climate Change Conference, is underway in Dubai. As with many of these foo-foo summits, I'm not expecting much to come out of it.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-problem-with-the-cop28-climate-change-conference
The Netherlands has recently undergone an election of its own, so let's look at the incoming coalition and how it will impact Dutch politics.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/dutch-politics
The big news out of South America is that Argentina has elected a new “libertarian” president, Javier Milei. So, what will this political shift mean for Argentina?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/argentina-elects-a-new-president-javier-milei
What was once a platform where you could access open-source information that was reliable and free...has now been laid to rest by Elon Musk. Yes, I'm talking about that little blue bird we've known and loved for years.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-im-done-with-twitter
A while back, I talked about a few technologies I was most hopeful for - small modular nuclear reactors being one of those. Unfortunately, we'll be drawing a line through it (for now).
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/modular-nuclear-reactors-are-not-the-future-of-energy
Thorium is a potential substitute for uranium-based nuclear power, but will it solve our nuclear problems? If thorium could help with the proliferation of plutonium and make it harder to create weapons on the backend, adoption of more nuclear power might be easier....but thorium isn't our knight in shining armor.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-can-thorium-solve-the-nuclear-problem
As industries like manufacturing ramp up between Mexico and the US, how will the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels factor into that equation?
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/what-role-do-the-cartels-play-in-us-mexico-trade
Today we're talking about Ireland's raw deal. It's on the far northwestern extreme of Europe, has a crummy climate and limited cultural development - hence the need for Guinness and Jameson.
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ireland-needs-a-new-game-plan
Since I stumbled upon a snow field on my hike today, I figured we should take the next question in the 'Ask Peter' series: are we approaching a new era of exploration, exploitation and development in the Arctic?
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-is-the-next-arctic-breakthrough-here
Savannah is awesome! Not only is it home to my favorite bar and one of my favorite food scenes, but it is also the site of the largest containerport in North America.
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-port-of-savannah-is-poised-for-success
Lithium has played an important role in the green transition and remains a crucial resource for the future of electricity; however, it's not going to be all sunshine and rainbows for lithium...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/lithium-the-false-profit-of-electrification
This week at the APEC summit in San Francisco, President Joe Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping sat down for a long overdue meeting.
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/china-us-relations-what-did-xi-and-biden-discuss
As the situation unfolds in Gaza, many of you have asked who we might see getting involved in the conflict. So, let's break down the key regional players and how this is playing out.
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/no-regional-powers-will-provide-aid-to-hamas
President Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping will have a private meeting at the APEC Summit in San Francisco. I'm not overly optimistic about getting any meaningful information out of this hospice meetup, but it's better than nothing.
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/biden-and-xi-meet-at-the-apec-summit
Donate to MedShare HERE: https://www.medshare.org/zukraine/
Water levels in the Panama Canal are critically low, and the effects could be devastating. The canal represents one of the world's most important trade routes and plays an essential role in the US trade system.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/critical-water-levels-in-the-panama-canal-medshare-match
Naval challenges are nothing new for the former Soviets, but the Ukraine War has introduced some added stressors in the Black Sea. Russia's inability to unify its naval presence across the four major seas in the region is a bad sign for Putin.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-collapse-of-russias-navy-the-four-seas-problem
From 30,000 feet, the pace of the Ukraine War appears to be slowing and even reaching a stalemate; however, when we zoom in on places like the Dnieper River and Mariupol, we can see the new tactics and strategies being implemented on both sides.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/new-tactics-in-the-ukraine-war-medshare-donations
Would you try to fly a kite when there's no breeze? Or try to surf when there are no waves? If you answered 'no' to those questions - CONGRATS - your basic analytical skills are much better than those tasked with the green energy buildout. Now we just need to test your math skills…
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-green-energy-cant-satisfy-electricity-demands
If you've ever spoken to an Ohio State fan, you know that they'll tell you how amazing they are without you asking. Unfortunately for all of us, I'll be adding to their boasting list today because there's plenty of success and growth in store for Ohio.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-future-of-ohio
The entertainment industry is changing, and the writers and actors are making sure their voices are heard. With all the technological changes hitting Hollywood, strikes like these shouldn't come as a surprise.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hollywood-on-strike
Unifor - a Candian public service union - has declared a strike on the St. Lawrence Seaway (a crucial maritime transport route). This has essentially cut off the direct delivery of seaborne goods from the Canadian interior and will disrupt the entire industrial base.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/unifor-strikes-issues-with-the-canadian-industrial-system
The third piece of the shale revolution is all about timing. As the world shifts from globalized supply chains to more localized and secure means of production, utilizing cheaper energy sources and products will be essential. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-third-shale-revolution-reshoring-manufacturing
With ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer, it's time to kiss the days of mom-and-pop shale operations goodbye. But before we look at what's next, let's look at the shale journey over the last two decades. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-first-shale-revolution-humble-beginnings
While giving a parliamentary testimony, Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, accused the Indian Government of assassinating a Sikh emigrant living in Canada who supported an Indian separatist group.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/india-assassinated-a-sikh-emigrant-on-canadian-soil
As the US pulls manufacturing from China, we'll look to Mexico City to fill that void. This region not only holds over half of Mexico's population but also represents the largest untapped workforce globally.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-us-needs-mexico-replacing-chinese-manufacturing
If you've read my latest book, you know that a driving force behind deglobalization is the US Navy stepping away from its role as patroller of the world's oceans. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/deglobalization-the-us-navys-withdrawl-as-global-protector
Hamas, a terror/political group (depending on your politics), has launched an attack on Israel. This has been a multi-faceted attack spanning land, air and sea. Prime Minister Netanyahu has declared war on Hamas as a result. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/hamas-attacks-israel-and-netanyahu-declares-war
Well, it sounds like the US finally decided to join in on the fun and make a lithium discovery of their own. This deposit is - supposedly - the largest ever, and it is located in the McDermitt Caldera near the Oregon-Nevada border.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-discovers-huge-lithium-deposit-what-it-means
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, has reportedly died in a plane crash. The question that comes to mind isn't why this happened (because Prigozhin's hands were plenty dirty), but who did it?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/prigozhin-is-dead-but-who-did-it
If you're thinking, "There's no way China's situation could possibly get worse," you may need to talk to mother nature about the rains and typhoons causing flooding in northern China.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-should-northern-china-worry-about-flooding
As the Biden administration piles on more drilling restrictions on public land, will America's energy independence be jeopardized?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-is-biden-killing-us-energy-independence
Russia has pulled out of the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN, and the countdown on Ukrainian agriculture has officially started.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-end-of-ukrainian-agriculture
***Apologies for the audio today; you can watch with subtitles at this link: https://youtu.be/-rANSHB4q1Y At the start of the Ukraine War, many of the world's advanced central banks placed sanctions and embargos on Russian financial assets. As Putin tries to repatriate gold reserves from these hubs worldwide, what does this mean for the leprechauns who think we should switch to an asset-backed currency? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-fiat-currencies-will-always-beat-gold
Today's new factoid is that youth unemployment in China is higher than in Italy (in percentage terms). And if China's unemployment resembles Italy's, it is a very, very bad sign. Let's break this down in the context of manufacturing. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-labor-problem-youth-unemployment
As I was heading out on this trip, a fire broke out in Mexico's Cantarell oil field, which has long been Mexico's largest oil-producing asset. However, even before this fire, oil production from this field was already down to but 1/8 of peak production. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-is-the-mexican-energy-sector-collapsing
Unless you've been living under a rock (or stuck in the mountains), you've probably heard that the Kerch Strait Bridge was attacked again. While this attack took Russia's vehicular transport capabilities offline, there's much more at stake here. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/brain-drain-and-capital-issues-plague-indias-tech-industry
Unless you've been living under a rock (or stuck in the mountains), you've probably heard that the Kerch Strait Bridge was attacked again. While this attack took Russia's vehicular transport capabilities offline, there's much more at stake here. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-the-kerch-strait-bridge-attack-is-bad-for-russia
Russia announced on Monday that the Black Sea grain deal will not be extended. This initiative has enabled Ukraine to export agricultural products through Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea; however, Ukrainian exports are only at a fraction of pre-war levels. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-terminates-the-black-sea-grain-deal
By the time you see this, the knot should be tied on Sweden joining NATO. There's still a little arm-twisting that will go on behind the scenes, but most of the heavy lifting is done (and Turkey got the bribe they wanted, sooo everyone's happy).
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/sweden-joins-nato
As the NATO summit in Vilnius wraps up, we're left with a result that was more or less expected. Ukraine won't be getting called up to the big leagues anytime soon, but it's not all bad news for Zelensky... Note: This video was recorded back in June, but it helps paint a picture of what is going down at the NATO summit. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraines-waiting-game-zelenskys-quest-for-nato-membership
Riots have broken out in France after police killed a 17-year-old kid. When a similar situation occurred in '05, there were weeks of riots. We can't be sure if the same will happen here, but it's worth looking into based on France's unique demographic situation.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/frances-demographic-blindspot-racial-inequality
Despite all the hullabaloo about the not-coup in Russia over the weekend, this assessment that we had initially planned to publish still holds true for the tactical situation in Ukraine...as well as some of the strategic implications with the Russians.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/and-now-we-return-to-our-regularly-scheduled-program
An attempted coup is in progress in Russia. The mercenary group Wagner, led by a one-time confidant of Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozin, is attempting to overthrow the Kremlin. The implications for the Ukraine War are…massive. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russia-coup-part-1-what-the-hell-is-going-on-and-the-ukraine-angle
The news of a "new" Chinese listening post in Cuba sparks the question: why is Cuba so important to the US? No, we're not talking about cigars. We're talking about Cuba's role in American strategic planning.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-chinese-listening-post-in-cuba-what-it-means-for-the-us
This is the first of the "Ask Peter" series, so I figured we'd kick it off with a two-parter. First, what's the likelihood of Putin getting assassinated? Second, how is Russia's demographic situation?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ask-peter-will-putin-disappear-and-updates-on-russian-demographics
If reading the headlines gave you some major déjà vu...welcome to the club. Trump is getting hit with a series of new indictments, but will it impact the election? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-will-donald-trumps-new-indictments-impact-the-election
As countries across the globe peeled back COVID restrictions, many of those economies saw huge (and much-needed) bumps. With China approaching six months since lifting its lockdown, the question on everyone's mind is why hasn't the world’s second-largest economy seen an economic bump? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/post-covid-china-will-the-economy-bump-or-slump
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is upon us, and there are three main assaults to follow. The first is purely strategic, and the others are a mix of strategic and emotional significance. Full Newsletter and graphic: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukrainian-counter-offensive-is-upon-us
What if I told you that Brazil's new tropical strain of wheat could cause the most significant shift to the technological power balance the world has seen in the past two centuries?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/peters-recap-june-week-1
There's a canal that runs from Kherson to the Crimean Peninsula and serves as the area's sole irrigation water source. And with how dry the region is, this canal is critical to the Crimean Peninsula.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-qa-series-canal
There's one massive hole we'll need to fill if the green movement will ever work in the US...mineral resources. Thankfully we just struck a deal with our Aussie allies, who happen to have many of the key minerals and resources we need.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/australia-strikes-a-greentech-deal-with-the-us
As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has learned a few tricks to curry favor from different countries. Their most recent endeavor is accepting the Chinese Yuan as payment for a few hundred million barrels of oil... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-saudi-arabia-ditching-the-us-dollar
The topic of de-dollarization is like the weird cousin no one wants to talk to at parties. They only come around once every year or two, and most of what they say is complete bulls***. But when the day comes that you need to take that weird cousin (aka de-dollarization) seriously, here are the three factors to look out for.
Full Video and Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-truth-about-de-dollarization-and-what-you-need-to-know
We're wrapping up our Ukraine War Q&A series with the most depressing question yet...how long can this war last? I have three answers for you...the dark, really dark, and truly dark.
Full Video and Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-qa-series-6
The fifth question of the Q&A series is...who is the ultimate provocateur in the Ukraine War? And I really hope this answer doesn't surprise anyone.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-qa-series-5
The fourth question of the Q&A series is...why am I so worried about agriculture exports coming out of Ukraine? And if you get foodstuffs from Ukraine, why you should be really worried...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-qa-series-4
Russia launched a volley of missiles into Ukraine overnight, and Ukraine was able to shoot down all the Kinzhals in the strike. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-missiles
Question number one of the series is...what happened to the half million Russian soldiers I predicted would hit the battlefield by June?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-qa-series-1
When a country views a conflict as existential, putting a timeline on it is nearly impossible. So no matter how well (or bad) this Ukrainian counter-offensive plays out, we are only at the beginning of a long, drawn-out war.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-updates-part-3-whats-next-for-russia
Ukraine has done all the prep work to launch its counter-offensive against the Russians. Now they just need Mother Nature to do her part and let the ground firm up. So, I would expect the tanks to roll out at the end of May or June. Full Newsletter and graphic: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-updates-part-2-the-counter-offensive
The headlines of the week are all looking at the "Imminent Ukrainian Counterattack," and while there are many reasons to expect action from both sides....let's focus on the inevitables for today.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-updates-part-1-the-inevitables
When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its least optimistic report in the last 50 years, alarm bells should go off for everyone. IMF's projected global economic growth for the next year is 2.8%, and for the next five years is only 3%. The scariest part is that these numbers are likely overly optimistic.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/economic-growth-is-collapsing-around-the-world
The Iranians have seized the Advantage Sweet, a Turkish-owned oil tanker carrying roughly 800,000 barrels of Crude. The press release (or should I say 'slap on the wrist') issued by the US Navy should have the Chinese very concerned about their supply lines.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iranian-seizure-of-oil-tanker-could-spell-disaster-for-china
I think I've found my favorite trail snack - Kikorangi Triple Cream Blue from Kapiti - I swear it will turn a 15-mile trek into a brisk walk. It just goes to show that as the world's top dairy exporter, New Zealand has its s*** figured out... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-new-zealand-dairy-industry
The terrain in northern Russia complicates building infrastructure enough. But in the aftermath of the Ukraine War (and without the West's involvement), I wouldn't expect this critical infrastructure in Russia to come back online in the next decade.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/crumbling-infrastructure-in-the-russian-taiga
The economics of green energy are vastly different from traditional fossil fuels, and we must understand their differences if the transition to green energy will ever be successful.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-economics-of-green-energy
The demographic situation in the Middle East can be explained by three factors: water, oil, and food. Water prevented the population from expanding. Oil generated the capital needed to industrialize and help the population grow. Food security will ruin all of this.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-10-problems-in-the-middle-east
What do Chicago, Denver, and DFW all have in common? Yes, they are all major metro areas in the US, but more importantly, they're colocated with green energy sources. As the world adopts more and more clean energy, these regions with localized energy sources will have a huge leg up on places that don't.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/clean-energy-in-chicago-why-windy-suburbs-matter
That pan-shaped state above Texas offers much more than just tornados and sports. The Sooner State has done most of the heavy lifting in establishing itself as an agricultural, precision manufacturing, and energy state. All that to say, Oklahoma is not only a leader in the US but globally as well.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/sooner-or-later-oklahomas-time-to-shine
Worried AI is going to steal your job and kick you to the curb? If you watched the video, you can probably see why I'm not worried about my job security. While AI is going to change the way we do a lot of things, it still needs some time before it's cracking the kind of nuanced jokes I'm famous for. Note: This video was recrorded prior to the GPT-4 update. Full Newsletter:
The American Southwest is primed to be one of the largest beneficiaries of the changes caused by deglobalization. However, everything in the American Southwest depends upon one thing...WATER.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-water-crisis-in-the-american-southwest
Europe's energy situation looked pretty dire last year as concerns began to mount over the impending winter season. Thankfully they dodged a bullet this year, but how many more bullets can the Europeans dodge? Horrible views today up on the Isthmus Peak Trail in New Zealand.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/dire-straits-energy-in-europe
The CCP is always watching...and no, I'm not talking about spy balloons today. Under the law in China, any company must cooperate with the government. So if you've got TikTok on your phone, you may want to watch your back.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/theyre-watching-you-the-tiktok-ban
The advanced developing world is about to have its moment. We're talking about India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brazil. These countries were a little late to the global scene, but now it's their time to shine, hopefully...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-9-the-advanced-developing-world
Anytime Russia and nukes are mentioned in the same sentence...the world pays attention. But does moving some Russian nukes to Belarus inherently change Putin's military posture?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-moves-nukes-to-belarus
Between geographical barriers, neutral countries, and bloody history, the European space has historically been disconnected. Now that central and western Europe is forming a coalition against the Russians...Putin should be shaking in his boots.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/building-the-anti-russian-alliance
By the time you see this, I'll already be on the other side of the world, so I figured it was the perfect opportunity to talk politics...specifically, who will walk away with the 2024 US Presidency.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-winner-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election-is
Russia has long operated under the guise of "strategic partnerships" to keep its enemies within striking distance. Putin and Xi's partnership is no different. However, only time will tell who will end up with the knife in their back.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-chinese-partnership
Despite some food scares coming out of the former Soviet space, Mother Nature helped 2022 crop production look pretty solid in most of the great agriculture basins of the world. However, this could be the world's last food-secure year for quite a while.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/agricultural-disruptions-in-argentina-and-ukraine
If you've read my latest book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, you know what question keeps me up at night: how long will we be able to feed the world's population? With threats to food security increasing daily, China is a scary example of how quickly this situation could go from critical to catastrophic.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/famine-the-ultimate-country-killer
There are a few reasons the cartels love their cocaine, mainly because it's easy to smuggle and cheap to make. But what happens when you sell it? You're left with a boatload of "dirty cash" you can't do anything with.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-3-the-north-american-drug-war
No, we're not headed for another financial crisis...although, to those with more than 250k in one of the three failing banks, it may seem like we are. Silicon Valley Bank is the largest of the three, but it's still only the 16th largest in the nation.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-financial-crisis-of-2023
To my fellow nerds reading along...this is your trigger warning...today we're talking about BAD DATA. Sorry for the dramatics, but I'm sure many of you share my frustration when you can't find the correct numbers for that forecast you're working on or, even worse, the data you used in your model is falsified.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trusting-the-numbers-in-a-deglobalized-world
Flashback to the 80s with me for a moment...we can leave out the big hair and leg warmers...but let's talk drugs. Most of the cartel activity came from one place, Colombia. If you've ever seen Miami Vice, you get the idea. But once the US caught onto the cartels' "distribution strategy," new ways of getting "product" into the US had to be created.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-2-origins-of-the-drug-trade
The Iranians have stumbled upon what every Green dreams of...a massive store of lithium ore. If the numbers prove true, it would be the 2nd largest deposit ever discovered. But is it too good to be true?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iran-discovers-a-huge-deposit-of-lithium
On March 7th, two of the four US citizens kidnapped shortly after crossing the border into Mexico were found dead. This raises several questions, but perhaps the most significant is how this will change the United States' policy on Mexican cartels.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-1-americans-caught-in-the-crossfire
With the potential for the Americans to get caught up in simaltaneous wars with the Russians and Chinese, do I think the US can handle it? The short answer is that the US will be fine...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-us-military-fight-russia-china
The Russians are taking a page from the Iranians by using gold to avoid the sanctions imposed on the Euro and USD. But before we look at how the Europeans are trying to disrupt their gold usage, we must see why gold makes sense for Russia.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/interfering-with-the-russian-gold-trade
In early 2020, reports of a virus sweeping across the globe hit the headlines. But where did it come from? How did it start? This week's news is that the Department of Energy released a low-confidence statement that COVID originated from a lab leak within the Chinese System.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/covid-what-really-happened-in-wuhan
Today we're talking about another region of the world competing for the title of "worst demographics" - and that, of course, is none other than Northeast Asia.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-7-the-northeast-asian-crash
Over the past few years, every aspect of life has been trapped in a constant state of flux...thanks COVID. Unfortunately, the economy's lack of stability forced inflation to skyrocket to 9%. The effect was devastating.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/inflation-the-gift-that-keeps-on-taking
When I get the question - "Is India the next China?" - to the surprise of many, I respond with a resounding NO! And the Indians should be extremely happy about that.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-india-the-next-china
Today we're diving into some operational updates from the Ukraine War. First and foremost, daytime temps this winter have rarely dropped below freezing; when they do, it has not been for long enough periods for the ground to freeze. So that means local forces will be rolling around in the pig-sty for at least a few more months.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukraine-war-operational-updates
Most of us have come to expect that anytime Putin gives a speech, nothing good will come out of it...and his one-year war anniversary address to parliament was riddled with bad news.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/putin-announces-withdrawal-from-start-treaty
Senator Lindsey Graham captured the essence of what today's video is all about - "If you jump on the Putin train now, you're dumber than dirt."
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/us-policy-russia-gets-blacklisted
There are very few instances when a prisoner would refuse a chance to get out...one of those being an offer to join the Wagner Group.If you're not familiar with the Wagner Group, they're the militant group that commits war crimes on behalf of the Russian government.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-wagner-group-russias-flunkies
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wants to shrink the balance sheet to zero over the next few years. And while this may be good for the economy and the US overall, not everyone will like the outcome...especially our vest-wearing friends down on Wall Street.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/fed-shrinking-balance-sheet
Moldova is one of those places that most people couldn't find on a map, but what it lacks in size, it makes up for in strategic significance.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/next-on-the-chopping-block-moldova
The big news from the weekend is that Russia announced a plan to cut 500,000 b/d (barrels per day) of oil production. This accounts for about .5% of global supply and roughly 10% of Russian oil exports.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-stable-is-the-russian-oil-industry
Unfortunately for the Chinese, their balloon didn't make it in time for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade...however, it's made a much bigger splash than the rest of this year's balloons.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/its-a-chinese-spy-balloon
It's time we get to the bottom of the question on everyone's mind...why are my eggs so damn expensive? Inflation takes no prisoners, but we may have another source to thank for this...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/why-are-my-eggs-so-d-expensive
Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it's just beginning. To fully understand what is at stake here, we must look at Russia's motivators and the possible outcomes.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-ukraine-war-just-getting-started
In the early hours of Monday, Feb. 6th, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 hit the city of Gaziantep in southern Turkey. The quake was felt across Turkey and deep into Syria, leaving behind a path of deadly destruction.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/earthquakes-wreak-havoc-on-turkey-and-syria
For solar power to make sense, there's one non-negotiable component...and yes, it's that bright, shiny thing in the sky - the sun. But just because your planet has a sun doesn't mean you should use solar power...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-solar-power-problems
Today we're talking about the redheaded stepchild between mining raw materials and incorporating those into a product...processing. Essentially throwing tons of energy at raw ore and converting it into usable materials like aluminum or steel.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/material-processing-the-redheaded-stepchild
The globalized world has seemingly been great for everyone...security, access to foreign markets, the list goes on...so why would the US choose to continue down the path of deglobalization?
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/deglobalization-theres-no-stopping-it-now
As the US attempts to reshore many previously outsourced industries, the Chinese are looking for any opportunity to retain their competitive edge...so let's talk about solar panels.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chinas-competitive-edge-solar-exports
As the Japanese and Dutch join the US sanctions against Chinese Semiconductors, we find ourselves at a precarious crossroads. The semiconductor industry has long been the personification of globalization, with dozens of products crossing countless borders and supply chains longer than the DMV line. But what happens now?
My Latest: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/semiconductors-chinas-the-odd-man-out
Today we answer the question that's been in the back of everyone's mind since The Terminator came out - is Skynet taking over? The short answer is no, but let me explain what is actually going on with AI...
My Latest: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-the-ai-revolution-here
It's time we talk about a region that has long held the title of "worst demographics"...The Orthodox Christian countries.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-6-the-orthodox-predicament
After months of discussion, the Germans have opted to allow the Leopard Tanks to be sent into Ukraine...and while it may seem like this resolution took far too long, anyone that has read a history book can at least understand the reason for the delay.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/germany-green-lights-the-tanks
In the 1930s, the Soviet Union attempted to crush the Ukrainians in a genocide known to history as the Holodomor.
Key to the strategy was deliberate efforts to destroy agricultural production to ensure famine. In all, 4 million Ukrainians perished. Today's Russia is about to switch gears in the ongoing military conflict and attempt a second Holodomor.
Here's how we should expect the next chapter to begin...
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-2nd-holodomor
Join us on Feb. 17th at 2:00 pm CST for the webinar - A Global Outlook: One Year Into the Ukraine War
Link to Sign Up: http://bit.ly/3wjBIGX
One of the most commonly asked questions I get is “How can I attend one of your speaking engagements?” So here’s your chance. On February 17th at 2:00 pm CST, I’ll be hosting a Webinar to discuss the Global Outlook One Year into the Ukraine War. We’ll dive into the global impacts the war has had on supply chains, agriculture, and much more. After my presentation we’ll have a Q&A portion to answer all those burning questions.
Those who attend the webinar will have exclusive access to a recording of the event, as well as all of my slides, charts and graphs used throughout the presentation.
Can't make it to the live presentation? No problem! All paid registrants will receive access to the recorded webinar and presentation materials to review at their own convenience.
With any infectious disease, there are two main factors to consider: the average number of people an infected person will infect and lethality. Even with accurate data and reporting, these take time to figure out. But if a country (ahem, China) decides to just STOP collecting the data...well then...oh boy.
Full Newsletter:
With the South Koreans "keeping nukes on the table," the conversation has turned into what other countries should build out nuclear options, and that list of countries is longer than any of us should be comfortable with.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/south-korea-keeping-nukes-on-the-table
The latest batch of Chinese demographic data has set off ALL the alarm bells, and for good reason. With official figures putting the average birth rate at slightly over one birth per woman and the population peaking last year, the alarm bells should have been sounded years ago.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-5-the-chinese-collapse
When your country's history has more than one tally mark next to the category - "World Wars Started" - it makes sense to avoid any form of strategic defense policy. Former German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht did just that. She wasn't a skilled defense policymaker. She wasn't a military strategist. And that's exactly what Germany needed...until now.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/a-new-wave-of-german-strategic-defense-policy
A state-owned mining company in Sweden has just stumbled upon a million metric tons of rare earth metals...but what does that mean? Any addition to the rare-earths supply is great, but I don't see this moving the needle much.
Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/swedens-not-so-rare-earth-metals
Camping at Adair Lake is most comparable to spending a night in a wind tunnel – and yes, it was as peaceful as your picturing. The little sleep I did get was supplemented with some thought around wind’s impact on global agriculture.
Full Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/where-in-the-world-adair-and-winds-pt-1/
Here you'll find a leadership series covering some of the world leaders of the present and recent past...with a strong focus on US presidents.
Full Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/world-leaders-of-the-present-and-recent-past/
As much as we analysts like to make predictions and forecasts, Mother Nature is always right there to throw all of it into a tailspin. The crazy temps across Europe are no exception to this.
While this abnormally warm winter season has been a godsend for energy prices across Western Europe, its also thrown a wrench into Ukraine's plans for a winter offensive.
I'm not saying Europeans should get used to shorts and mai tais all winter long, but this season could hold lasting impacts (good or bad) for the year ahead.
Full Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/a-toasty-winter-in-europe/
If we were to take the age-old saying of "s*** hitting the fan" and apply it to China...we would need a wind turbine and a few acres of cattle pastures.
To put it nicely, China's outlook is...grim. They're facing demographic dissolution, a dying tech industry and a risk exposed energy sector, and we're barely scratching the surface. They are the single-most internationally exposed country in our collapsing world.
So how does a country like that continue on? The short answer is CHANGE and perhaps a little collaboration with the USA. To that tune, President Xi may have just given us a sign that he gets it.
Full Newsletter: https://zeihan.com/changing-tides-in-the-chinese-system/
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.