83 avsnitt • Längd: 50 min • Veckovis: Fredag
Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in ”The Synopsis” they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.
The podcast The Synopsis is created by Speedwell Research, LLC. The podcast and the artwork on this page are embedded on this page using the public podcast feed (RSS).
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is an unedited reproduction of an interview with Speedwell's Drew Cohen that was orginally featured on Compounding Quality's newsletter. All questions are from Pieter Slegers of Compounding Quality.
Read the Interview Transcript Here : https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/an-interview-on-investing-with-speedwells
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Memo mentioned: The Invisible Competitor: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-invisible-competitor-when-creating
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Show Notes
(0:00) — About this Memo
(1:43) — First Question
(8:48) — Research and Making Decisions
(12:22) — Best Investment
(18:02) — Key Characteristics for Great Investors
(24:24) — Book Recommendations
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we give an update on CoStar Group and Copart. Check out our written business updates for $CSGP and $CPRT below!
CoStar Group 4Q24 Business Update
Copart: 2Q25 Business Update (Calendar 4Q24)
~Mentioned Memos~
Accounting Memo: Alibaba, JD, and the $330bn Footnote
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, including our CoStar Group and Copart Extensive Research Reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
~CoStar Group~
(1:58) — CoStar Overview
(10:55) — Sales Force, Growth, Homes.com
(23:06) — Better Bear Case, Valuation, Andy Florance as a CEO
~Copart~
(31:51) — Copart Overview and Tailwinds
(47:45) — International, Purple Wave, Tariffs, Valuation
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of publication, one or more contributors to this report has a position in CSGP and CPRT. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CSGP and CPRT. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this interview we talk to Right Tail Capital's Founder, Jeremy Kokemor. Jeremy has been in the investment world for almost 3 decades and started his own investment firm back in 2022. In this conversation, he shares his experience running an investment advisory firm, how he picks stocks, and talks about 3 of his past investments in quality businesses. We hope you enjoy!
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Right Tail Capital Investment Philosophy
(1:58) — How the Business of Investing Interrupts Good Investing
(9:21) — Absolute vs Relative Return, Stock Selection
(19:43) — Biggest Position, NVR, Dream Finders Homes, and Home Builders
(31:26) — Murphy USA, Gas Station Industry
(49:24) — Ferguson, Plumbing and HVAC B2B Distributors, Floor & Decor Similarities
(1:01:24) — When Research Changed an Investment Thesis, Why Not Call it Left Tail Capital?
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we give an update on Dream Finders Homes and Floor & Decor. Check out our written business updates for $FND and $DFH below!
Dream Finders Homes 4Q24 Business Update
Floor & Decor 4Q24 Business Update
~Mentioned Memos~
Home Depot Memo: Priced to Outperform Perfection
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, including our Dream Finders Homes Exploratory Report and our Floor & Decor Extensive Research Reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
Dream Finders Homes 4Q24 Business Update
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(0:00) — Where’s the Letter?
(1:34) — High Level Overview
(5:27) — Acquisition Model Similar to Constellation Software
(9:20) — Rare Case where ROE makes more Sense, Riff on Bank Balance Sheets
(12:57) — Operating Income, Tariffs, Non-homebuilder Acquisitions
(20:04) — Valuation
Floor & Decor 4Q24 Business Update
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(24:00) — Overview, Same Store Sales Controversy
(33:45) — Founder Operators versus Professional Managers, Cabinet Selection Concerns, Store Roll Outs Slowing
(42:00) — Tariffs, Spartan, Operating Leverage
(49:12) — Valuation
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of publication, one or more contributors to this report has a position in FND and DFH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in FND and DFH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Company episode of The Synopsis we draw on our 75-page research report on Axon Enterprises, a leading law enforcement technology provider, for a very in-depth break down of the company.
Founder Rick Smith took a failed concept—the TASER—and not only created a succesful business around it, but made it become a mainstay of policing. Not content to just reinvent how policing worked in the field, Axon pushed into other critical areas of law enforcement like officer video, cloud-based data management, and vertical software. A 1,000x return since going public in 2001, Axon is one of the highest returning stocks of all time. But more interesting than the investment returns, is all of the lessons we can learn from Billionaire Founder Rick Smith.
Learn more about our 75-page research report here.
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
If you need help getting Speedwell Research to become an approved research vendor, so you can expense your subscription, please email [email protected]
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Mentioned Speedwell Memos:
Minimum Viable Products versus Maximum Possible Products
How Axon's Founder Built a $35bn Business: 10 Lessons from Rick Smith
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Show Notes
Part 1: Founding History and Background
(0:00) Axon Overview
(3:34) — Background of the Advent of the TASER
(12:08)— Rick Smith Reinvents the TASER and the Founding of AirTaser
(15:39) — AirTaser Early Struggles
(23:20) — Taser International rename, Going Public
(34:36) — Broadening their Mission and Product Lines, Introducing Axon
(43:47) — R&D Fumbles, Importance of Knowing when to Iterate vs Innovate
(51:11) — Axon Camera Business Frictions, Gaining Adoption and Building a Competitive Moat
(1:17:57) — Concluding History
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Part 2: Financials, Industry, Competition, and Valuation
(1:26:22) — Revenue Segments, Business Model
(1:43:39) — Profitability and Mature Margins
(1:47:45) — Industry and TAM, Pricing Power
(1:57:59) — Competition
(2:29:38) — Why Axon Wins (One Breath Take)
(2:33:36) — ROIC, Mature Profitability, Free Cash Flow
(2:40:51) — Valuation
(2:44:07) — Risks
(2:49:01) — Free Axon Resources from Speedwell
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of recording contributors had a position in Perimeter Solutions. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on also may have a position in Perimeter Solutions. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our extensive research report of CoStar Group! If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
Subscribe to Drew Cohen's YouTube Channel Here
CoStar Group Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/costar-business-history
*~*
*Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the CoStar Group Single Report Here*
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Show Notes
(0:00) – YouTube Announcement and Episode Formats
(2:33) –Memo Reading Starts
(24:18) – Upcoming!
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we give an update on Coupang and Perimeter Solutions. Check out our written business updates for $CPNG and $PRM below!
Perimeter Solutions 4Q24 Business Update
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, including our Airbnb and Evolution Extensive Research Reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(1:02) — Coupang 4Q Update
(27:35) — Perimeter Solutions 4Q Update
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of publication, one or more contributors to this report has a position in CPNG and PRM. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CPNG and PRM. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this insightful conversation we talk with Philz Coffee Cofounder, Jacob Jaber, on what it was like to build and operate a coffee business from a single counter in a bodega to chain of 75 stores. Jacob talks about the many things he learned operating in the extremely competitive food and beverage industry, while also distilling his experience down to general business lessons that are highly applicable to many industries. We hope you enjoy it!
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(0:48) — Philz Coffee Founding History
(4:25) — What Need Did Philz Coffee Fulfill?
(12:14) — Forgoing Sales and Creating Fricition
(16:30) — Scaling, Ambitions, and Growth
(25:46) — Raising Capital, Store Economics, ROIC
(37:50) — What Changes with Scale, Keeping Consumer Surplus
(43:30) — Figuring out Price, Competition
(51:18) — Identifying and Investing in New Business Concepts
(59:24) — How Running a Business changed Jacob as an Investor
(1:05:49) — Purpose
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we debreif on our Todd Haushalter interview and give an update on Evolution and Airbnb. We also talk about the "blue sky" scenario of Airbnb's ambitions. Check out our written business updates for $ABNB and $EVO below!
Evolution 4Q24 Business Update
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, including our Airbnb and Evolution Extensive Research Reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Debrief on Evolution's Todd Haushalter Interview
(12:39) — Evolution Update
(33:25) — Airbnb Update
(41:05) — SuperApp Ambitions
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of publication, one or more contributors to this report has a position in ABNB and EVO. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in ABNB and EVO. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this wildly insighful conversation with Evolution's Chief Product Officer Todd Haushalter, we have a wide ranging conversation on everything from Evolution's moats and why its so hard to make great product to game innovation and how Evolution plans to stay ahead of the competition.
Todd Haushalter joined Evolution in 2015 and is responsible for having created billions of dollars of value for the company, in addition to having created many new live casino gaming formats that are among players favorites.
Many in the industry joke that he and his team at Evolution are the R&D department for the entire industry. When Evolution rolled out Lightening Roulette, competitors followed with Quantum Roulette and Mega Roulette. Rather than getting caught up in competing with copycats, Todd pushes his team to always focus on the player, delivering the best gaming experience for them.
All sorts of subtleties from camera angle switches to the timing of ball drops reflect Todd’s relentless pursuit of an unparalleled player experience. Whereas competitors compete on price, his games win because players actively seek them out.
Whether you are familiar with live casino or not, everyone can learn from Todd Haushalter’s business and operational acumen, which is flowering with insights that only a truly passionate and driven operator could articulate.
To read Speedwell's in-depth 74-page research report on Evolution, become a member or purchase a single report here. With a membership you will also get access to Evolution's business updates and all of our other reports.
You can listen to our 2h+ company podcast on Evolution here: (Apple, Spotify).
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(1:20) — Journey to Evolution? Taking Sermons from Evolution
(6:25) — Game Innovation and Dream Catchers
(13:57) — Why Todd gets called Steve Jobs; Dark side of Product Development; Culture
(21:01) — The Nitty Details of Gaming Math
(31:03) — The Art of Making a Game
(42:33) — Setting up a Competitor with 10 billion Euros
(50:59) — How OSS Changes Competition
(1:00:34) — Slots and Growth Inflection
(1:05:11) — Recommendations and AI; Social
(1:22:25) — Why do People like Live Casino?
(1:31:14) — Why would Todd Leave Evolution?
(1:38:23) — Aggregators?
(1:52:55) — Fear?
(1:57:40) — Is the Stock a Buy?
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "The Invisible Competitor: When Creating Value is Better than Fighting for It "
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-invisible-competitor-when-creating
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Show Notes
(0:00) – A Bit About this Memo
(0:59) –Memo Reading Starts
(21:08) – Connecting this Memo
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this fun and insightful conversation we talk to Matt Reustle. Matt was a credit analyst and then equity analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York. He later worked on the buy-side and then moved to become Colossus's CEO, which is the podcast group responsible for Business Breakdowns and Invest Like The Best.
We talk about what people misunderstand about the Sell-side, why most investors fail with management meetings, what he learned from 200+ business breakdowns, and a few investing successes, as well as failures. We hope you enjoy!
You can download Matt Reustle's guide on meeting with management here.
Our memo on issues with the Sell-side can be read here.
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(1:12) — Misunderstandings on what is the Sell-side
(9:15) — Quick Insight into Credit Research
(11:58) — Conflicting Prerogatives of a Sell-side analyst
(19:14) — Why Most Investors Fail with Management Meetings
(29:50) — Business Breakdowns Takeaways
(36:24) — What Makes a Great Analyst
(44:29) — Matt’s Investing Style and 2 Stocks
(54:34) — What being CEO of Colossus taught Matt about Investing
(58:16) — Consumer Surplus's Role in Great Businesses
(1:02:51) — Does a Great Business Mean it Last a Long Time?
(1:09:00) — The Pain that is UPS
(1:12:56) — Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this interview, we talked with Barry Schwartz and Ernest Wong from Baskin Wealth Management on their investing philosophy and we cover a great variety of businesses. We discuss if you can quality invest in the energy sector, high multiple stock valuations, Costco vs Transdigm, how to rebase expectations, and differences in management of a fund versus seperately managed accounts, as well as much more! We hope you enjoy!
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Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(0:51) — Baskin Wealth Management and Investing in Great Companies
(4:38) — Fund Structure versus Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs)
(12:12) — Where to Base Expecations?
(21:57) — Can you Quality Invest in Energy?
(32:31) — How to Deal with Terminal Value, High Multiple Stocks
(39:08) — High ROIC companies with limited reinvestment runway
(42:58) — Can you Overextract Consumer Surplus? Transdigm vs Costco
(52:02) — Portfolio Allocation
(55:17) — Mistakes and When Quality isn’t Quality, Paypal circa 2021
(1:06:19) — What Makes a Terrible Investor?
(1:11:49) — Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this company focused interview, we talk with Abdullah Al-Rezwan, known on Twitter as Mostly Borrowed Ideas. We focus on just two companies: Spotify and Lululemon. In our Spotify segment we cover what an investor would have thought in 2021 about Spotify without the ex post facto analysis and walk through developments in the audio company up to current day. Our Lululemon discussion is centered around the recent shift in market sentiment on the business and how valid the adverse risks are.
You can find more about MBI and become a member to his research service here.
*~*~*~*~*
Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
Spotify Case Study
(3:29) — Spotify Background and Original Investment Thesis
(14:38) — Comparisons to Netflix
(21:41) — Spotify Advantages and Industry Dynamics
(30:42) — Summarizing the Spotify Thesis
(46:12) — What an investor could have seen in 2021
(53:32) — Pricing Discrimination and Pricing Power
(57:45) — Clarifying the Bull Case
(1:01:03) — Spotify Progress in 2023
(1:11:32) — Tech Risk Exposure
Studying the Lululemon Drawdown and Sentiment Shift
(1:19:24) — Shifting to Lululemon
(1:22:54) — Bear critiques are cliche
(1:26:33) — Why is the Business so Successful?
(1:34:00) — Lululemon Bear Case and Rebuttal
(1:45:17) — Alo and Lulu Consumer Preferences
(1:47:14) — Risk and Making a Decision on Lulu
(1:56:45) — Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our extensive research report of Axon! If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/axon-business-history
Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the Axon Single Report Here
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:25) –Memo Reading Starts
(24:30) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this company focused interview, we talk with The Science of Hitting's Alex Morris on the Dollar Tree, Netflix, Disney, Match Group, Airbnb, and Spotify, in addition to touching on thoughts around when to exit a postion and how to stay open to new information. The Science of Hitting Research (or TSOH for short) is an investment research service that provides subscribers in-depth analysis on public equities. Learn more about it here.
You can purchase Alex's new book, Buffett and Munger Unscripted, which curates decades of Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting wisdom here.
*~*~*~*~*
Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:44) The Science of Hitting Research
(5:01) Confidence in a Circle of Competence vs Consumer Fickleness
(8:21) Dollar Tree: Does macro impacts mean the consumer value prop is weak?
(32:17) SVOD, 21st Century Fox, and a Netflix Case Study
(40:57) Why couldn’t Disney beat Netflix?
(47:16) When stock valuations drive business operations
(53:43) How to think about valuation and when to sell
(1:06:44) Match Group and the Dating Industry
(1:20:11) Airbnb thoughts and Brian Chesky's Moonshot
(1:32:46) Mistakes, Spotify
(1:39:40) Good News, Page 379 is Free, and I Don’t Know
(1:41:43) Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode of The Synopsis, we took notes on all of our listener questions and answered different ones instead. In this wide ranging discussion we talk about lessons from the most boring business we covered, investing myths, our research process, and, yes, our listeners' questions too. Enjoy!
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(1:00) — 2025 Reports to Come
(6:05) — Most Interesting Things about the Most Boring Company we Covered
(8:22) — Intel, Pitons, Windows, and Etsy
(12:35) — Business Most Worried About
(24:13) — Investing Myths, LVMH, Risks
(37:13) — The Research Process
(48:41) — Evolution News on UK Gambling Commission
(57:48) — Don’t Miss This, Podcast Growth Stats
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Company episode of The Synopsis we cover Perimeter Solutions. Perimeter Solutions is the sole provider of a key fire fighting product, as well as other fire safety solutons. They went public through an acquistion vehicle controlled by Transdigm Founder and Billionaire, Nick Howley, as well as "The Outsiders" Author, William Thorndike. Nick Howley wants to apply the same model that made Transdigm so succesful to Perimeter Solutions.
Access the Free Portion of our Perimeter Solutions Exploratory Report Here
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
If you need help getting Speedwell Research to become an approved research vendor, so you can expense your subscription, please email [email protected]
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(0:47) — Background Story on their Main Firefighting Product
(4:42) — Corporate History and Everarc SPAC
(7:57) — Aren’t SPACs a red flag? Weird Compensation Agreement
(13:03) — Business High Level Overview: Fire Safety and Specialty Products
(18:45) — Adjusted EBITDA???
(20:30) — Figures and Margins
(24:30) — Competitive Advantages of each Business Lines
(40:17) — Growth Opportunities
(53:22) — Capital Allocation and Transdigm Parallels
(1:04:53) — ROIC
(1:07:55) — Odd Compensation Arrangement
(1:15:47) — Valuation
(1:17:34) — You Should Know This
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of recording contributors had a position in Perimeter Solutions. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on also may have a position in Perimeter Solutions. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "What is a Fair Investment Assumption? "
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/what-is-a-fair-investment-assumption
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Housekeeping / Intro
(0:25) –Memo Reading Starts
(15:25) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode we give an update on two of our companies: Copart and Coupang! We talk about Coupang's new entrance into the luxury market and two call options for Copart. Plus a short diatribe on Temu and Aliexpress.
You can read the 3Q24 business update on Coupang here and on Copart here. *Note: it is Copart's 1Q25 fiscal year*
*Apologies, but it seems the mic recorded lower sound quality at times. We will fix it for future episodes*
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
For Coupang and Copart we have an in-depth, company-specific episode. These are evergreen and extremely comprehensive deep dives on each company.
Listen to the Coupang ($CPNG)Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
Listen to the Copart ($CRPT) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
*Mentioned Memos*
Read one of our most popular memos on Wish here: The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish
Listen to our Dialogue Podcast on Wish here: Apple, Spotify
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
Coupang
(0:56) — Coupang
(10:34) — Cash Flow Dynamics
(14:45) — Taking on the Luxury Market
(18:11) — The Lower End Market Threat with Temu and AliExpress
(23:30) — New markets and growth opportunities
Copart
(28:28) — Copart
(34:56) — Long Term Growth Rate Variables
(35:46) — Annoying Copart Question
(38:51) — Their Big Call Option
(48:09) — International
(50:42)— Valuation Three Ways
(1:21:00) Another Call Option
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For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode we give an update on three of our companies: Axon, Constellation Software, and Dream Finders Homes. Plus a short tirade on the OTAs business model and companies that don't host quarterly earnings calls!
You can read the 3Q24 business update on all three companies here.
(The written update is partially paywalled, so become a Speedwell Member today! Please reach out to [email protected] if you need help getting us to become an approved research vendor in order to expense it.)
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
*~*~*~*~*
For Dream Finders Homes and Constellation Software we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics. Axon will be coming soon!
Listen to the Dream Finders Homes ($DFH)Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
Listen to the Constellation Software ($CSU) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
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Show Notes
(0:00) — Intro
(1:37) — This Doesn't Make Sense: Booking Holdings Diatribe on Merchant vs Agency Model
(5:43) — Companies that Get Away without Quarterly Earnings Calls
(8:42) — DFH Update on Housing and Business Model
(18:49) — Axon Quick Overview and Update
(33:07) — CSU Update, FCFA2S, and Valuation
(42:47) — Coming Soon From Speedwell Research
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this investment focused interview, we talk with Twitter's Compounding Quality on his investment philosophy, 3 step approach to valuation, how he screens for companies, when to sell, and much more!
Find out more about Compounding Quality here and follow him on Twitter @QCompounding
The mentioned Speedwell memo on Sell Side Price Targets can be found here.
*~*~*~*~*
Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) Intro and Compounding Quality’s Investment Philosophy
(4:43) What defines a "quality" company?
(9:34) How important is a great manager?
(13:16) Overview on Judge’s Scientific
(19:05) Issues with Sell Side Reports
(22:26) Compounding Quality's 3 Step Approach to Valuation
(34:03) Pieter's Worst Investments Ever
(37:17) Does the Stock Market serve you or do you serve it?
(45:49) Screening for Stocks
(55:15) Moats as a Margin of Safety
(1:02:21) Meta and Re-checking the Investment Thesis
(1:09:09) The Best thing that Ever Happened to Pieter
(1:12:04) The Only Business Compounding Quality Sold
(1:19:30) When do you sell a quality company?
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discussed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "How Axon's Founder Built a $35bn Business: 10 Lessons from Rick Smith"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/how-axons-founder-built-a-35bn-business
Get access to our full $AXON Research Report here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Housekeeping / Intro
(1:03) –Memo Reading Starts
(19:28) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Dialogue episode we talk about 3Q24 earnings for Floor & Decor, Meta, and Etsy.
You can read this entire 3Q24 earnings update for free here.
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
*~*~*~*~*
Link for Podcast Mentioned in the Show: "Dialogue. Meta, Etsy, and Snowballing Risks" (Apple, Spotify)
*~*~*~*~*
For all three companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics.
Listen to the Floor & Decor ($FND) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
Listen to the Meta ($META) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
Listen to the Etsy ($ETSY) Company Podcast Episode here: (Apple, Spotify)
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Show Notes
(0:00) - How we think about Quarterly Updates
(5:55) - Floor & Decor: Deviating from the Long-term Plan?
(33:06) - Meta: Business Firing on All Cylinders
(48:14) - Etsy: Why are “Polar Opposite” Offerings Taking Share?
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about 3Q24 earnings for CoStar Group ($CSGP) and Evolution ($EVO).
The free versions of the earnings updates can be found here: CoStar Group, Evolution
For full access to all of our updates and in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
For both companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics.
Listen to the CoStar Group Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify
Listen to the Evolution Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) - Intro
(1:18) - Evolution Update
(29:03) - CoStar Group Update
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this investment focused interview, we talk with Twitter's Sidecar Investor on partnering with great managers, position sizing, sourcing ideas, "stable assumptions", and when to not trust an operator, among much more!
Find out more about Sidecar Investor here and follow him on Twitter @sidecarcap
The Mentioned Memo on Home Depot can be found here.
*~*~*~*~*
Get access to all of Speedwell Research's in-depth Research Reports here.
If you need help getting Speedwell added as an approved research vendor for your investment firm, please reach out to [email protected]
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(3:57) — Early Examples of Partnering with Great Managers
(9:05) — Importance of Managers vs. Moats
(15:13) — Owner Operator Companies Upside and Potential Downfall
(17:52) — How Much Can You Trust a Manager
(26:47) — Diversification vs Resiliency
(30:19) — Lessons in Investing, Valuation, and When to Sell
(35:19) — Position Sizing and Holding
(40:21) — Macro Role, Capital Intensity, and Moats
(51:45) — Sourcing Ideas
(58:26) — Gaining and Losing Confidence in Management Teams
(1:03:38) — Assumptions, Conservatism versus Accuracy
(1:08:40) — Learnings and What Businesses Should People Study More
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*~*~*~*~*
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "Minimum Viable Products versus Maximum Possible Products "
Memo Link: www.SpeedwellMemos.com/mvps-versus-mpps
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Housekeeping
(1:06) –Memo Reading Starts
(13:24) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about a recent memo, Investing is Just Answering a Series of Questions: Explaining the Reverse DCF
We cover what a Reverse DCF is, how do use one, common errors, and how an investor should conceptulize the outputs.
We hope you enjoy!
*~*~*
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
*~*~*
Other Speedwell Memos Mentioned in the Discussion
The Investment Matching Principle (on the connection between position sizing and risk/ reward)
From Private to Public Markets (touches on VC vs Buffett Investing)
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Show Notes
(0:00) Memo Overview
(2:57) - Reverse DCF Details
(11:46) - Issues with the Terminal Value
(18:50) What Makes a Great Investor
(31:43) — Basketball Betting Analogy , Getting the Lower Range Correct
(37:04) - Mistakes with the Reverse DCF and Mistakes We’ve Made
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. All views expressed on this podcast do not represent the views of the companies podcast contributors may have worked for. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this wide spanning interview episode we talk with Biz Almanac's Andy on investment philosophy, the differences of Founder-led businesses, as well as many different companies he's written up on his Substack, including TerraVest, Alimentation Couche Tard, Burford, Progressive, TFI, Old Dominion, Spotify, Mercardo Libre, and more!
Find out more about Biz Almanac's research and writings here and follow him on Twitter @BizAlmanac.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:59) What is your Investment Philosophy? Why focus on Owner Operated Businesses?
(13:47) — How do you pick companies to vette?
(19:51) — When to Sell and we discuss a Controversial Study's Conclusions
(34:30) — TerraVest
(45:54) — Alimentation Couche Tard
(58:09) — Alternative Asset Managers, Apollo Group
(1:04:09) — Burford, Niche Area of Littigation Finance
(1:13:02) — Progressive Insurance
(1:15:26) — What is LTL? TFI and Old Dominion
(1:23:29) — Spotify, Daniel Ek as a Founder
(1:30:02) — Mercado Libre, Developed Markets vs Developing Markets
(1:41:00) — Take Aways and Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "Investing is Just Answering a Series of Questions: Explaining the Reverse DCF"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/investing-is-just-answering-a-series
Recomended Article Podcast on Hurdle Rates: (Spotify, Apple)
Or read it here: How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro and Updates
(1:27) –Memo Reading Starts
(19:19) – Check out this Memo on Hurdle Rates and the "Right" Discount Rate
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this company episode on CoStar Group, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Founder Andy Florance's entrance into the real estate data space from his Princeton dorm room to becoming the dominant real estate data and analytics provider. Florance not only beat out competition in the commerical data space, but succesfully entered several new markets including taking a fledging apartments listing platform and driving it to the #1 spot. Today CoStar is looking to do it again with Homes.com, while still aggresviely expanding their growing array of internet real estate businesses. Learn the inner workings of the real estate data and markeplace business, as well as how a company succesfully expanded far beyond their original core product and continues to find new markets to fight after. We hope you enjoy!
Company Description: Real estate data & analytics provider and operator of real estate marketplace.
Purchase the full CoStar Group Report here.
More details on our CoStar Group Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of our Reports here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
Section 1: History and Background
(0:00) — Intro
(2:45) — High Level CoStar Overview
(6:15) — Founding History Starts
(16:52) — IPOing
(26:54) — 2008 Financial Crisis
(35:40) — Lawsuits and LoopNet
(49:44) — Apartments.com acquisition
(59:46) — Xcelligent Lawsuit and the Last of the Direct Competitors
(1:04:56) — Closing Out History and S&P 500 Addition
*
Section 2: The Business
(1:07:35) — Business Section Overview
(1:21:30) — Multifamily and Apartments.com Business
(1:29:00) — Residential Overview
(1:30:43) — Loopnet Overview
(1:34:07) — Other Businesses/ Wrapping Up Business Section
*
Section 3: TAM and Industry
(1:43:13) — TAM Overview
(1:50:29) — How the Residential Industry Works
(2:01:15) — Multifamily Industry
*
Section 4: Competition
(2:08:53) — CoStar Competitors
(2:15:35) — Why Does CoStar Win
(2:23:48) — Why LoopNet Wins
(2:25:30) — Zillow and Apartments.com Competition
(2:34:03) — Homes.com vs Zillow
*
Section 5: Growth Opportunites, Capital Allocation, and Valuation
(2:40:45) — International
(2:46:38) — ROIC, Free Cash Flow,
(2:54:06) — Dilution and Capital Allocation
(3:00:33) — Valuation
(3:05:45) — Risks
(3:10:50) — Bull / Bear Summary
(3:15:50) — Conclusion
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Purchase the full CoStar Group Report here.
More details on our CoStar Group Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
*~*
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Costar Group. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CoStar Group. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about a recent memo, What You Don't Know About Sell-side Price Targets
We cover several factors that influence a sell-side analysts' recommendations and explain that price targets don't mean what you think they do.
We hope you enjoy!
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:19) Memo Overview
(4:51) What Does the Sell-side Do?
(10:12) Tech Bubble Era Sell-Side Analyst
(15:14) What is a Price Target and Why it Doesn't Make Sense
(20:19) Biggest Unknown Factor that Influences Price Targets
(26:12) Carrer Risk and Other Recommendation Factors
(30:25) Why Sell-side likes to Stay in Consensus
(34:44) What could be different about Sell-side research
(30:09) Closing Thoughts
(40:20) Concluding Comments
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Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. All views expressed on this podcast do not represent the views of the companies podcast contributors may have worked for. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our latest Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "What You Don't Know About Sell-side analyst Price Targets"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/what-you-dont-know-about-sell-side
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:19) –Memo Reading Starts
(20:38) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about 2Q24 earnings for Floor & Decor ($FND) and Evolution ($EVO). For both companies we have longer, in-depth podcast episodes which you can listen to below. These are evergreen and give a lot of more details on each companies' history, business, industry, and competitve dynamics.
Listen to the Floor & Decor Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify
Listen to the Evolution Company Podcast Episode here: Apple, Spotify
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here. You can also buy indiviudal reports here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
Evolution Update
(1:09) Evolution Discussion Starts
(5:24) Biggest Payout Ever
(10:16) Capital Allocation, Galaxy Gaming Acquistion
(19:02) Georgia Strike
(24:32) Unregulated Markets and KYC
(27:43) Wrapping Up Evolution Commentary
Floor & Decor Update
(29:52) Floor & Decor Overview
(30:23) LL Flooring Background and Bankruptcy
(33:10) Macro Impacts
(37:14) Inventory Levels, Gross Margins
(40:04) The "Philosophical" Question on Growth and when to Get Concerned
(48:03) Spartan Acquistion and Pro Business
(51:15) Cash Balances, Bad Guidance, Peers Struggling, Closing Comments
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Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read an excerpt from our extensive research report of Coupang! If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/coupang-business-history
Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the Coupang Single Report Here
The Synopsis Coupang Company Podcast Episode: Apple, Spotify
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts
(15:32) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this Company episode of The Synopsis we cover Porsche AG. Porsche is a brand that has tried to become "luxury at scale" with over 300k units produced annually versus undisputed luxury car brands who produce closer to ~10k. While their strategy might have diluted their brand, they still enjoy superior positioning compared to most premium car manufacturs like BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
Listen to this episiode to learn not just about Porsche's history and business model, but also about the car industry and different car manufacturer's strategies.
Access the Free Portion of our Porsche AG Exploratory Report Here
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
Memos Referenced in the Episode: Value Capture Index Introduction
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:17) Why Research Porsche?
(3:22) Porsche History
(15:14) Crises in Porsche's History
(18:23) Corporate Structure
(24:32) - The Automotive Industry
(29:39) - Industry Production Figures and Company Financial Profiles
(32:21) Value Capture Index and Competitior Business Models
(45:08) ROIC and Earnings Improvements
(51:02) Risks and Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. At the time of recording no contributor had a position in Porsche AG. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on also did not currently have a position in Porsche AG. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about a recent memo, What is a Great Business?
Other Memos Mentioned: The Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences: The Other Side of the Consumer Value Prop
For full access to all of our in-depth research reports, become a Speedwell Member here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:53) Observing versus Creating a Great business
(6:07) Great Businesses through the lens of The Consumer's Hierarchy of Preferences
(8:27) Pressure Cooker Metaphor
(15:15) Is Reinvestment Runway a Criteria?
(23:03) Moats and Copart
(27:30) CHOP and Disruptions
(30:44) Nintendo
(34:35) Where does the Surplus Lie?
(41:13) Walker & Dunlop
(45:54) Conclusion
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Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk Constellation Software and RH!
Listen to our full company-specific episodes on Constellation Software and RH in our feed if you haven't already!
*Note* After this recording we switched how we record our podcasts, so you should enjoy better sound quality in the future!
Memo Mentioned: The Investment Matching Principle
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:40) Constellation Software Update
(33:09) RH Update
(52:42) Conclusion
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "What is a Great Business?"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/what-is-a-great-company
Check out Speedwell's Interview with Best Anchor Stocks (Spotify, YouTube)
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:01) –Memo Reading Starts
(18:37) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this wide spanning interview episode we talk with Best Anchor Stocks' Leandro on investment philosophy, quality businesses, Nintendo, Deere, Copart, Hermes, and much more!
Find out more about Best Anchor Stocks here, follow Leandro on Twitter @Invesquotes and Best Anchor Stocks Podcast can be found here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:16) What Characterizes a Good Business?
(6:15) Multiples, Implied Valuation, Reverse DCF
(26:00) Great Companies and Valuation, Copart, Constellation Software
(35:32) Nintendo and Deere, Transitioning Business Models
(49:01) Hermes, Durability, Ferrari, Rolex, and Luxury
(1:15:12) A Good Business versus a Good Investment
(1:18:05) Book Recommendations
(1:22:58) Conculsion
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk Floor & Decor, Copart, and their 1Q24 results.
Check out our full company episodes on Floor & Decor and Copart below if you haven't already!
Floor & Decor Company Episode: Apple Spotify
Copart Company Episode: Apple Spotify
(Note Copart's latest quarter is fiscal 2Q, but ends Feb. 27)
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:47) Floor & Decor Update
(17:58) Copart Update
(39:06) Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about Grab, WeChat, Meituan, X, and all things about SuperApps. Our conversation builds off of a recent memo on SuperApps, which you can read here: WeChat, Meituan, and Grab: What is a SuperApp and Why You Will Fail Building One
**Please note we had issues with the orginal sound recording and had to use AI tools to adjust the sound volume, however it adversely impacted the sound quality. We apologize for this and will try to avoid this happening in the future.**
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:51) SuperApps Intro, Cross Selling, Sea Limited's Free Fire
(8:54) What a SuperApp Aims to Do
(13:59) WeChat History and What Was Different About It
(20:41) Why no Mini-programs or SuperApps in the U.S.?
(23:28) Meituan's and Grab's SuperApp; Twitter/X's Ambitions
(41:03) The Physical World's "SuperApps", Sears, E-Commerce Grocery
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about Meta, Evolution, and their 1Q24 results. Check out our full company episodes on Meta and Evolution below if you haven't already!
Meta Company Episode: Apple, Spotify
Evolution Company Episode: Apple, Spotify
A written update on Meta's 1Q24 results can be found here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:06) Evolution Business Update
(16:06) Meta Business Update
(48:37) Conclusion
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is a business update on Meta.
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/meta-1q24-business-update
Purchase our Meta Research Report here.
Become a full Speedwell Member and gain access to the updated reverse DCF and Meta Report here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:04) –Memo Reading Starts
(17:17) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about RH and provide an update with their business. Check out our full company episode on RH if you haven't already! (Links below)
RH Company Episode: Apple, Spotify
A Written Update on RH from 1H23 can be found here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:01) Announcement
(2:05) RH Business Update
(30:44) Conclusion
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "The Investment Matching Principle: How the Risk/ Return Profile Connects to Diversification"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/wechat-meituan-and-grab-superapp
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:07) –Memo Reading Starts
(14:43) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about two Speedwell Memos. The first memo is titled "Priced to Outperform Perfection: The Home Depot Circa 1999" and covers how to think about valuation and what is priced into a stock.
The second memo is If the Model Doesn't Work, Don't Fix It: A Look at Traditional Apparel Retailers, Zara, and Shein and covers the business operations of three different retail models.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:45) First Memo on What was Priced into Home Depot's Valuation circa 1999
(22:07) Second Memo on Traditional Retailers, Zara, and Shein
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is an exceprt from our Evolution Research Report.
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/evolution-business-history
Become a Speedwell Member or Purchase the Evolution Single Report Here
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:18) –Memo Reading Starts
(13:40) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "The Investment Matching Principle: How the Risk/ Return Profile Connects to Diversification"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-investment-matching-principle
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:07) –Memo Reading Starts
(13:05) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this company episode on Coupang, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Founder Bom Kim's early foray into commerce with a Groupon-like business to an epic restructuring of the company just weeks away from IPOing that left them on the path to become the leading South Korean ecommerce business. Learn about how the South Korean competitve enviroment developed differently, as well as how Coupang managed to dominant after a capital-intensive pivot. We hope you enjoy!
Company Description: Dominant South Korean ecommerce provider with fully integrated logistics operation.
Purchase the full Coupang Report here.
More details on our Coupang Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Show Notes
Section 1: History and Background
(0:00) Intro
(1:55) Coupang Business Overview
(2:56) Start History
(6:13) Groupon Business Model, Differing Value Props
(17:10) Pulling the IPO and Pivoting
(30:32) - Second Attempt at an IPO
*~*
Section 2: TAM and Competition
(31:44) TAM and Korean Retail Market Overview
(39:13) Market Share and GMV Estimates
(42:52) Competition, Consumer Preferences Served
(47:47) Flywheel
(56:37) Coupang Fresh Grocery
(59:30) Spend per Buyer
(1:01:18) Competitive Enviroment, Naver
*~*
Section 3: International and Other Bets
(1:27:17) Other Bets
(1:28:31) Coupang Play
(1:31:56) Coupang Eats
(1:39:10) Coupang Pay
(1:42:25) International, Japan, Taiwan
(1:48:42) Farfetch
*~*
Section 4: Financials, Valuation, Risks
(1:53:04) Financial Metrics
(2:00:00) Coupang Steady State Margins
(2:04:03) Reverse DCF
(2:06:20) Bear Case, Bull Case, Risks
(2:13:58) Conclusion
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Purchase the full Coupang Report here.
More details on our Coupang Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
Articles Mentioned
Speedwell’s Memo: Metaphor Malware: The Clumsy Thinking That Is Crippling Your Business Understanding
*~*
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Coupang. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Coupang. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "Balancing Risk and Return: The Simple Statistics of Investing"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/balancing-risk-and-return-the-simple
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:33) –Memo Reading Starts
(9:23) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "Metaphor Malware: The Clumsy Thinking that is Crippling your Business Understanding"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/metaphor-malware-the-clumsy-thinking
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts
(10:00) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
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Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about a memo of ours on what the cost of equity is, and how investors can practicially contextualize the question. The memo we draw on in this episode is called "How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity" and can be found here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:45) How Much Money Should I Make for Risking my Capital?
(1:32) The Munchausen Trilemma
(3:48) Relative vs Absolute Investors
(11:38) How "Absolute Investor" is a Misnomer
(15:25) The Punch Card Idea and How it Relates to the Cost of Equity
(26:24) Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks memo is "If the Model Doesn't Work, Don't Fix It: A Look at Traditonal Apparel Retailers, Zara, and Shein"
Memo Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/if-the-model-doesnt-work-dont-fix
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:05) –Memo Reading Starts
(12:43) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
Article Link: Speedwell Memos - Constellation Software Business History
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:13) – Article Reading Starts
(9:25) – Closing Comments
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Purchase Constellation Research Report
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of Speedwell’s Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Speedwell's free newsletter can be found here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Constellation Software. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Constellation Software. This may change without notice.Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this company episode on Constellation Software, Speedwell Research draws on their extensive research report to cover everything from Mark Leonard's early insight into the quality of Vertical Market Software Businesses to their unique operating structure. Investors can learn not only about the software business, but also about how Constellation Software has created a conglomerate of hundreds of companies through an impressive multi-decade acquistion spree, all while keeping capital allocation discipline. We hope you enjoy!
Company Description: A decentralized and acquisitive conglomerate of Vertical Market Software Companies based out of Canada.
Purchase the full Constellation Software Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
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Show Notes
Section 1: History and Background
(0:00) Intro
(0:58) Constellation Software High-Level Business Description
(5:01) Mark Leonard History and Constellation Software Background
(10:31) Constellation Software IPO
*~*
Section 2: Vertical Market Software
(13:25) What is VMS and Competitive Advantages
(20:37) Financial Model Benefits
*~*
Section 3: Corporate Structure and Revenue Segments
(23:32) Six Groups
(33:54) Revenue Segments and Context
(38:41) How SaaS Changes Things
(44:29) Constellation Software Competitive Advantages
*~*
Section 4: Topicus and Lumine
(52:05) Topicus
(1:06:46) Lumine
*~*
Section 5: Capital Allocation, Valuation & Risks.
(1:08:37) Capital Deployment and Hurdle Rates
(1:17:29) ROIC
(1:20:00) Risks
(1:23:06) Bull/ Bear Case
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Purchase the full Constellation Software Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
Articles Mentioned
Speedwell’s Memo: From Private to Public Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors’ Expectations
*~*
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Constellation Software. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Constellation Software. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is If You Don't Know What Game You're Playing, You Already Lost
Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/if-you-dont-know-what-game-youre
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:17) –Memo Reading Starts
(13:14) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about a recent memo on how investors can influence businesses and what is difference between being a public versus private company. The memo we draw on is called "From Private to Public Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors' Expectations" and can be found here.
We recently found out we have a *duplicate Spotify feed* and will be *removing* it this week. Please follow this correct Spotify feed just called "The Synopsis" to keep getting our content!
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:21) Two Extremes of Investing
(6:49) Reflexivity, Difference Between Analyst and Operator
(19:36) Risk Embedded in Assumptions were Too High, Illustration
(23:57) The Role of Narrative
(28:24) Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
*-*-*-
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
*Important* If you listen on Spotify, make sure you follow us on this Spotify feed. We just became aware there was a duplicate feed, which we are disconnecting next week.
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is From Public to Private Markets: The Detrimental Impact of Investors' Expectations
Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/from-private-to-public-markets-the
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:20) –Memo Reading Starts
(20:52) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On our very first interview we talk with Mostly Borrowed Ideas in a wide spanning interview on Meta, Google, Microsoft, and investment decision quality. Mostly Borrowed Ideas writes a deep-dive on a publically traded company every month. You can find more out about him and his writings here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(2:37) Meta, Risks, Tiktok, ATT, Metaverse
(26:22) Google, Sundar Pichai, Capital Allocation
(33:52) Google Risks
(46:59) What is a Great Business?
(59:19) Owners versus Managers
(1:08:45) Investment Process Improved through Writing
(1:18:57) Conclusion
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Find out more about MBI at https://www.mbi-deepdives.com
Buy Speedwell Meta Single Research Report
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Mentioned Links
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
On this episode we talk about how investment risks could impact an investment thesis through the lens of Etsy and Meta. We provide a short "timeless" update on both companies as well.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Important Announcement
(0:41) Intro
(3:33) Etsy Value Prop, Issues, and Temu Read-through
(16:41) Meta Risks and The One Thing Investors Needed To Be Sure Of
(26:33) How to Gain Clarity with Meta Circa 2022
(34:20) Conclusion
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Buy Meta Single Research Report
Buy Etsy Single Research Report
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to *all* of our in-depth research reports and more!
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter and weekly memos here
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Mentioned Links
The Synopsis Meta Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify)
The Synopsis Etsy Company Podcast (Apple, Spotify)
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Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Contributors to the podcast may own securities discusessed. Furthermore, accounts contributors advise on may also have positions in companies discussed. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/etsy-business-history
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Important Announcement
(0:45) – Intro
(1:36) – Article Reading Starts
(30:31) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all of Speedwell’s Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Speedwell's free newsletter can be found here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
Charlie Munger talks about the Latticework of Mental Models and how having exposure to many different disciplines helps gain insight into problems. Key to connecting different disciplines though, is the metaphor.
This week, on The Synopsis, we talk about our two Piton Network business philosophy pieces. The Piton Network is our attempt to create a metaphor that furthers investors and analysts understanding of business and strategy.
Our first memo is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. You can read it here.
Our second memo is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating from Strength or Weakness. You can read it here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:00) What is a Piton
(4:21) Decision Clusters, Southwest
(11:03) Floor & Decor, Copy Cats, Lowes
(17:53) Amazon vs Wal-Mart delivery
(20:22) Jim McKelvey's Innovation Stack, Square vs Amazon
(24:37) Pulling Out Pitons, Netflix
(32:28) Ford vs Tesla, Complexity, Piton Network vs Value Network
(43:35) Value of Metaphor
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com
Mentioned Links:
Speedwell's First Consumer Hierarchy of Preferences Memo
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is Meta-Optimizations: Knowing When a Business is Operating From Strength or Weakness
Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/meta-optimizations-knowing-when-a
*Please note that this memo builds off a concept introduced early in The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space. If you want to listen to this memo first, click here for Apple and here for Spotify links.
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:21) –Memo Reading Starts
(29:58) – Closing Comments
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Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more.
Speedwell Research's main website can be found here.
Find Speedwell's free newsletter here.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish".
In this conversation we talk about Wish and what lessons we cannot draw from their lack of success. We also talk about our LTV and financial analaysis, as well as what Wish's value prop was compared to other competitors.
You can read the Full Memo here.
You can become a full Speedwell Research Member here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:11) Memo background
(4:09) Wish Pitch and Value Prop
(9:12) Putting Business Failure into Proper Context
(16:10) Growth vs Maintenece Marketing
(25:14) LTV Analysis and Buyer Churn
(30:42) What Happened to Wish
(32:26) Main Lessons
(37:36) Conclusion
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our in-depth research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Sign up for Speedwell's free newsletter: https://www.speedwellmemos.com
Mentioned Links:
Chinese Ecommerce GMV Accounting Piece: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/accounting-insights-alibaba-jd-and
Interview with Peter Szulczewski: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1LzKGJ0bNU
Follow Us:
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below. There are several charts and excels in this memo that may be helpful to look at for more comprehensive understanding.
This weeks article is The Future of Ecommerce That Wasn’t: An In-depth Look into What Went Wrong with Wish
Article Link: https://www.speedwellmemos.com/p/the-future-of-ecommerce-that-wasnt
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(1:04) - Housekeeping/ Upcoming
(1:38) –Memo Reading Starts
(29:46) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this podcast on Evolution, Speedwell Research draws on their 74-page report to cover everything from the company's inception experimenting with a single roulette wheel to a global business with 60%+ margins. Studying this extremely unique business will teach listeners about the importance of value chain positioning, using negotiating leverage, and how to maintain a very lucrative business in a highly competitive industry. Everyone says the house aways wins, but not in the online casino world where it is the supplier, and Evolution is the largest supplier. We hope you enjoy!
Company Description: B2B supplier in the online casino space specializing in the live casino vertical.
Purchase the full Evolution Report here.
Purchase a Speedwell Membership to gain access to all Reports here.
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Show Notes
Section 1: History and Background
(0:00) Intro
(2:20) Evolution High-Level Business Description
(5:01) Evolution History and Background
*~*
Section 2: TAM and Market Differences
(35:32) TAM Overview
(40:05) Grey and Black Markets
(44:38) Aggregators
(53:35) North America Regulation
*~*
Section 3: Business Model
(1:00:59) How they Make Money
(1:05:07) How Evolution Differentiates
*~*
Section 4: Competition
(1:17:55) Competition Overview
(1:22:33) Playtech
(1:31:42) Vertical Integration
(1:39:10) Pragmatic
*~*
Section 5: Capital Allocation, Valuation & Risks.
(1:47:30) Capital Allocation and ROIC
(1:51:35) Acquisitions and Slot Business
(1:59:37) Risks
(2:04:47) Valuation
(2:06:39) Bull/ Bear Case
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Purchase Speedwell's EVO Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/12/19/evolution/
Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Articles Mentioned
Speedwell’s Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in Evolution. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Evolution. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read a Speedwell Research memo from our backlog. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is 10 Lessons from Copart's 40 Years in Business: Learning from Willis Johnson and Jay Adair
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/10-lessons-from-coparts-40-years
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:55) – Memo Reading Starts
(20:30) – Closing Comments
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Purchase Speedwell's Copart Report Here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
This week on The Synopsis, we talk about a recent memo, "Google Shut the Door on Competition, AI Swung it Back Open".
We cover some old threats to Google's Search dominance and how AI catalyzes them. This show is in our Dialogue format, which you can expect more of in the coming future. We hope you enjoy!
You can read the Full Memo Here.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:51) Memo background
(3:10) Product Encroachment
(9:12) Two Way Google Historically Competed
(11:05) Form Function Changes
(15:03) AI Threats and How AI is Changing Things
(16:42) Facebook's Platform Shift
(24:40) AI risks to Sponsored Link Business
(28:06) Todd Combs, Charlie Munger, What Can Investors Assume?
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Buy Speedwell Research's Meta Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/
Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of this writing, one or more contributers to the podcast has a position in Google. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Google. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is Google Shut the Door on Competition, AI Swung it Back Open
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/google-shut-the-door-on-competition
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:44) - Housekeeping/ Upcoming
(1:51) –Memo Reading Starts
(28:16) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
At the time of this writing, one or more contributors to this report has a position in Google. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Google. This may change without notice. Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read a Speedwell Research memo from our backlog. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is Priced to Outperform Perfection: The Home Depot Circa 1999
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/priced-to-outperform-perfection-the
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:45) – Housekeeping
(1:33) – Memo Reading Starts
(14:40) – Closing Comments
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is The Risk Circle: Deciding What Risks Matter and When
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-risk-circle-deciding-what-risks
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:47) –Memo Reading Starts
(14:55) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is How Pies, Proofs, and Punch Cards Hold Key Insights into the Cost of Equity
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/how-pies-proofs-and-punch-cards-hold
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:46) –Memo Reading Starts
(19:56) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we read our weekly Speedwell Research memo. If you prefer to read instead of listen to the memo, you can find access to the article below.
This weeks article is Understanding Modularity: How Apple, Bloomberg, and Amazon Kept Strategic Coherency
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/understanding-modularity-how-apple
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:49) –Memo Reading Starts
(16:56) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this podcast on Floor & Decor, Speedwell Research covers everything from its founding as a single store in Atlanta, Georgia to becoming the leading hard surface flooring specialty chain retailer. We draw on Speedwell Research’s 57 page research report to teach not just about the flooring industry and Floor & Decor’s interlocking business model, but also about competitive dynamics and how to think about store level unit economics. We hope you enjoy!
(Please note that for the first few minutes of the recording, occasionally the sound quality declines. It improves thereafter.)
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:51) Background
(4:48) CEO Tom Taylor
(6:21) Industry
(15:26) Floor & Decor Model
(24:33) TAM Breakdown and Commercial Business
(28:35) Pro Business
(33:15) Competitive Landscape and Main Competition
(59:10) Four Wall Store Model, Mature Margins
(1:11:49) Long-Term Store Target
(1:24:45) What Can Go Wrong, Risks
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Purchase Speedwell's FND Report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/08/floor-decor-deep-dive/
Become a full Speedwell Research Member here: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Articles Mentioned
Speedwell’s Memo Introducing the Piton Idea: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that
Speedwell’s Memo on Home Depot’s Valuation in 1999: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/priced-to-outperform-perfection-the
Floor & Decor 2022 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2022-earnings-recap
Floor & Decor 2H23 Earnings Recap: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/floor-and-decor-2q2023
Business Breakdowns Floor & Decor Podcast: https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/29086328/cohen-floor-decor-raising-the-floor?tab=transcript
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in FND. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in FND. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
This weeks article is from the business history section of our Walker & Dunlop report.
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(2:02) –Article Reading Starts
(21:55) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Purchase Walker & Dunlop Single Report: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we introduce a new episode format called, “Articles”. As the name suggests, this episode will be a reading of a memo written by Speedwell Research. If you prefer to read instead of listening to the memos, you can find access to the article below. On this first Articles episode, we are reading our business philosophy piece introducing the concept of the Piton and the Piton Network.
This weeks article is The Piton Network: Decisions that Simultaneously Support and Limit the Future Decision Space.
Article Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-piton-network-decisions-that
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Show Notes
(0:00) – Intro
(0:47) –Memo Reading Starts
(18:30) – Closing Comments
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Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Gain access to Speedwell’s Extensive Research Reports, Models, Company Updates, and more by purchasing a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis we cover capital-light homebuilder, Dream Finders Homes. We dovetail into the homebuilding industry, the macro supply/ demand environment, as well as detail Dream Finders Homes business model and how it differs from peer NVR. This podcast is informed by Speedwell Research’s new short format reports, called “Exploratory Reports”. We released the first Exploratory Report on Dream Finders Homes for free (link below).
Dream Finders Homes Report Link: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/dream-finders-home-exploratory-report
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Show Notes
(0:00) - Intro, What is an Exploratory Research Piece?
(2:37) - Macro Backdrop, Housing Supply/ Demand Factors
(10:51) - Homebuilding as a Business
(13:57) - Dream Finders Homes History and Background
(19:17) - ROIC, Financial Performance,
(22:36) - Capital-light Model vs Traditional
(27:14) - Original Capital-light Homebuilder, NVR and how NVR differs from DFH
(34:08) - Competitive Factors, How do Homebuilders Differentiate?
(37:18) - Risks and Concerns
(42:36) - Closing Thoughts
(44:33) - Conclusion
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Piece Introducing the The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Purchase a Speedwell Membership: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, no contributors to the podcast had a position in DFH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on did not have a position in DFH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this episode of The Synopsis, we cover everything from Etsy’s founding history and early strategic errors to how Josh Silverman quickly reaccelerated growth and improved profitability after several years of sagging performance. We dovetail into what makes the platform unique and how Etsy has been able to succeed where both eBay and Amazon failed. We draw on Speedwell’s 79 page report to teach not just about Etsy, but also help investors learn about how great CEOs run a business.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(0:54) Founding History
(3:01) Where the Name “Etsy” Comes From
(6:45) Issues with Founder Robert Kalin
(10:45) New CEO, The Chad Dickerson Era
(14:02) Foolish Endeavors
(19:48) Turning Around Etsy, Josh Silverman Appointed CEO
(25:29) Identifying Where Etsy Can Improve, Initiatives to Improve the Buyer Experience
(35:40) Etsy Advertising, A Fumble Recovered
(41:16) How Etsy Makes Money
(44:41) Covid Ecommerce Boom, 2021 Bull Market, Metric Distortions
(51:09) Changing Buyer Behavior, Improving Frequency
(59:21) International Opportunity
(1:03:03) Capital Allocation, Acquisitions
(1:12:07) ROIC
(1:14:22) Competition, Take-Rates
(1:26:56) Pre-Mortem
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Purchase Speedwell's full 79 page ETSY research report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/09/28/etsy-deep-dive/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in ETSY. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in ETSY. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
This week on The Synopsis, we introduce our Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences framework in a new episode format. The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences is a helpful idea for investors and entrepreneurs to better understand the market, their products, and competitors’ offerings. You can check out our original writing introducing the idea here.
This show is the first of our “Dialogue” format, which will be episodes focused on business frameworks or other investing ideas. We will return with a Deep Dive on a specific company next time. We hope you enjoy!
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro, New Show Concept
(1:37) Explaining the Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences
(7:26) Product Market Fit Through a Different Lens, Where the Jobs Framework Fits In
(11:34) Chipotle versus Taco Bell Example
(14:38) Etsy’s Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences
(16:43) Cash Flow Durability, Consumer Surplus as Churn Mitigation
(21:23) Brands, See’s Candy, Fulfilling Psychological Needs
(24:51) Real World Applications of the Framework, Chipotle Again, Retail Apparel Companies
(29:17) More Examples, Amazon, Fine Dishware, Temu, Shein, Depop, Facebook Marketplace
(32:50) Sustainability as a Potential Preference, Tesla, Patagonia, Allbirds
(36:15) Summarizing Key Aspects of the Framework and When to Implement
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Become a Speedwell Member here to gain access to all of our research reports: https://speedwellresearch.com/subscribe/
Our first Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2022/11/18/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-the-other-side-of-the-consumer-value-prop/
Our second Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preferences Piece: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/02/04/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-two-ends-of-the-strategy-spectrum/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback.
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this podcast on Copart, Speedwell Research covers everything from Founder Willis Johnson’s early business career to the industry dynamics, and how Copart became the global, salvage marketplace auction leader. Investors can learn a lot from Willis Johnson’s early business intuition and movement from the lowest wrung of the salvage vehicle value chain as a liquidator to ultimately a critical service provider for insurance companies. We draw on Speedwell’s 85 page report, released in May 2023, to teach not just about Copart’s business, strategy, and formidable competitive advantages, but also to parse out cultural factors that distinguish truly great companies. We hope you enjoy!
(Please note that about 1/3rd into the podcast, the sound quality periodically declines. It then improves towards the last 1/3rd of the podcast. We apologize for this and have identified the issue for future recordings.)
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(2:19) Willis Johnson Background History and Early Career
(9:19) BTS Auctions: The Beginnings of Copart
(14:12) Changing the Business Model to Align Incentives
(17:57) How Jay Adair was Introduced to Copart
(18:40) Copart’s Early Expansion
(24:09) Experimenting with Internet Auctions in the 90’s
(29:43) CAT Events and Copart's Ethics
(38:33) Industry Overview
(50:23) IAA History, IPO, Private Buyout, Merging with KAR, Spin-off, and Ritchie Bros Acquisition
(1:07:26) Copart vs IAA, Competitive and Cultural Differences, Market Share
(1:24:06) Financials
(1:27:12) Capital Allocation, Growth Assumptions
(1:30:58) ROIC and variations compared to IAA
(1:34:00) International, Details on How the German Market is Different, Barriers to International Growth
(1:45:27) Other Business Initiatives
(1:51:22) Growth Expectations and the Reverse DCF
(1:53:40) Risks, Autonomous Vehicles
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Purchase Speedwell's full ~22,000 word CPRT report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/05/22/copart-deep-dive/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in CPRT. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in CPRT. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this podcast on RH, Speedwell Research covers everything from Restoration Hardware’s beginnings as just a catalog in a personal living room to massive multi-story Galleries with restaurants that generate >$10mn. Investors can learn much from the early business failings, as well as the incredible turnaround and business transformation Gary Friedman led. We draw on Speedwell’s 86 page research report, released in March 2023, to teach you not just about RH, but also about novel customer acquisition strategies, the dangers of promotions, how to build a coherent consumer value prop, and show how changing a business’s strategy requires reworking every element of the company. Enjoy!
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(1:31) Early Founding History, Novel Customer Acquisition Strategy
(5:48) First IPO in 1998
(8:23) Restoration Hardware Model Starts to Break
(9:29) Gary Friedman Background and Takeover of Restoration Hardware
(14:43) Initial Business Changes Friedman Makes
(18:32) Second IPO in 2012, Starting to Envision a Luxury Retailer
(24:27) Ascent of Luxury Mountain, The Mega Gallery Strategy
(26:43) Solving a Key Business Shortcoming, The King Midas Problem, What Meituan has in Common with RH
(32:26) Source Book Strategy and When Mailing a 540 Page Catalog Makes Sense
(35:12) Growing Pain Period, Reworking Key Elements of the Business
(45:13) RH Membership and the Problems with Promotions
(52:07) What Job RH Does, The Consumer’s Hierarchy of Preference
(54:35) The Value Capture Index and How to Assess Retailer’s Pricing Strategies, Competition, Disadvantages of Ecommerce
(1:06:03) ROIC and Margins, Reverse DCF, Revenue Build
(1:14:50) RH Brand Extensions, Private Jets and Yacht, Guesthouse
(1:20:45) Acquisitions, Waterworks, Apple vs LVMH Model
(1:26:05) What Could the Business Look Like in 10 Years?
(1:27:46) Pre-Mortem
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Purchase Speedwell's full ~21,000 word RH report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/03/22/rh-deep-dive/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
Free Piece on The Value Capture Index: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/the-consumers-hierarchy-of-preferences-dc6
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a position in RH. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in RH. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
In this inaugural podcast, Speedwell Research goes into details on their ~170 page, January 2023 report on Meta Platforms ($META). We cover a list of questions including 1) how resilient are social networks and why did Friendster and MySpace disapear? 2) how does ad tech work and did Apple's policies permanently impair Meta? 3) what "job" does Facebook and Instagram do? 4) is the metaverse a dealbreaker for investors? 5) and much more.
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Show Notes
(0:00) Intro
(3:09) History: Six Degrees, Friendster, MySpace, and early Facebook
(28:32) Jobs to Be Done: What consumer needs does Facebook serve and the degradation of the network
(44:57) Meta's ability to spin up new apps, failed apps, Threads, how sticky are network effects, Tencent's QQ
(59:04) Monetization formula, advertising history, and primer on the digital ad ecosystem
(1:19:25) Apple Privacy Changes, ATT, IDFA, Return on Ad Spend, auction dynamics
(1:38:48) Can Meta recover from their data loss? Inverting the question with the reverse DCF to see implied growth.
(1:43:47) WhatsApp, IRR Math
(1:47:23) Metaverse Spend, Financial Returns, Strategy
(1:53:36) Year of Efficiency
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Purchase Speedwell's full ~47,000 word Meta report here: https://speedwellresearch.com/2023/01/17/meta-platforms-deep-dive/
Speedwell's free newsletter: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/
More on Speedwell: https://speedwellsnippets.substack.com/p/speedwell-research-process-and-philosophy
Twitter: @Speedwell_LLC
Threads: @speedwell_research
Email us at [email protected] for any questions, comments, or feedback
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Disclaimer
Nothing in this podcast is investment advice nor should be construed as such. At the time of publishing, one or more contributors to the podcast had a postion in Meta. Furthermore, accounts one or more contributors advise on may also have a position in Meta. This may change without notice. Please see our full disclaimers here: https://speedwellresearch.com/disclaimer/
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.