Podd: Top Traders Unplugged

OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

20 november 2024 | 58 min

In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut

03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models

08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?

09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system

11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders

15:35 - An example of how they handle flow

18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?

21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets

23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading

29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield

31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?

36:59 - Proactive and reactive management

38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?

40:42 - How they implement reactive management

41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades

46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?

48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning

53:38 - A work in progress

54:46 - Working with a moving target

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

16 november 2024 | 68 min

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:43 - Industry performance update

10:17 - New times for bonds

14:37 - The issue is always in the details

19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?

22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing

26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto

29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?

30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?

34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage

38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?

43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment

45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics

48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt

50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?

55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market

58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens

01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

13 november 2024 | 55 min

Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder

03:20 - How did she approach her research?

07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?

11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time

16:25 - How the role of the Fed has evolved historically

22:35 - How gold has impacted the

24:17 - Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?

29:16 - Is 2% inflation the wrong target?

35:27 - Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making

40:29 - How does Binder measure inflation expectations?

47:10 - Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?

49:57 - Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

8 november 2024 | 63 min

Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?

06:26 - An analysis of the election

11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome

14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome

18:11 - A global macro perspective

28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?

31:39 - Industry performance update

37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?

48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market

53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction

57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word

59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaser

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

6 november 2024 | 62 min

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Stephen on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran

05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?

10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work

15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer

17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon

21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?

24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations

27:26 - The state of the labour market

32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?

34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?

37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?

40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome

45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy

48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?

50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?

53:49 - The outlook for fixed income

56:07 - Geopolitical concerns

57:37 - Advice for other investors

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

2 november 2024 | 65 min

In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:30 - Industry performance update

04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months

11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event

16:49 - Picking the right managers

19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality

26:53 - Different products for different market segments

33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?

43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds

46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?

53:49 - Tell me what you love

57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman

30 oktober 2024 | 59 min

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman

04:28 - The state of the economy

04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

09:40 - The outlook for inflation

12:34 - A move in the right direction?

14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?

17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data

21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?

22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?

23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?

26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits

28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?

31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?

34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?

36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?

37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?

39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?

40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?

43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?

45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy

49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?

51:06 - China's influence on the global economy

54:05 - The outlook of economical growth

55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?

57:12 - Advice for other investors

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver

25 oktober 2024 | 82 min

Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?

09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked

10:37 - An economic Kayfabe

13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?

18:44 - Industry performance update

20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?

25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?

26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?

30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?

34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?

36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?

41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?

43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.

45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?

47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?

59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies

01:13:30 - A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?

01:20:00 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino

23 oktober 2024 | 76 min

In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:30 - Introduction

03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis

06:34 - Can trading be taught?

08:50 - The story behind the trading rules

12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?

13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?

22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading

27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading

32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?

34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?

40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting

45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems

49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?

53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks

56:28 - Their view on replication strategies

01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems

01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?

01:08:47 - The future of trend following

01:11:11 - Criticise ideas, not people

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski

19 oktober 2024 | 62 min

Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?

06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes

07:47 - Industry performance update

09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?

13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions

18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?

24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?

29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?

33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year

36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?

39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game

42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!

43:35 - The outlook for trend following

46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments

52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?

55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?

01:00:40 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

16 oktober 2024 | 62 min

Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave

03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?

09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?

13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy

19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity

24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?

28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?

36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?

40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces

43:09 - The state of the European economy

47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart

49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?

54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts

56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed

59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?

01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan

12 oktober 2024 | 68 min

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida

03:39 - A rough time for trend following

08:39 - Industry performance update

12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs

23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following

32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy

40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following

01:06:22 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden

9 oktober 2024 | 58 min

Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden

06:06 - A whole year without cash

08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?

12:40 - The implications of a cashless society

23:53 - A big hurdle

26:04 - Building a better mouse trap

28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation

31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?

38:11 - The dark side of the Fed Coin

41:36 - How the borrowing process works in banks

44:55 - How would the Fed control credits?

51:56 - Is Holden working with the Australian government?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas

5 oktober 2024 | 67 min

Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?

07:37 - Industry performance update

09:02 - Reflecting on August and September

12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade

17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?

21:32 - Finding the right trading speed

24:15 - Out-performing is a long game

27:47 - Its time to move direction

29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?

33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time

39:24 - Baltas' thoughts on correlation forecasting

42:26 - Pairing risk parity and trend following

48:25 - A dangerous game

51:35 - How much should you allocate to trend following?

01:01:06 - Is the benchmark changing?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski

2 oktober 2024 | 63 min

Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Amy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski

08:02 - How they think about manager selection

09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?

11:40 - How they assess their investment objective

13:07 - How they manage risk

14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them

15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio

17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have evolved

19:13 - Is there a place for multi-manager pods?

20:47 - A war for talent

22:34 - How they approach internal vs external management

26:34 - How is their team set up?

28:48 - What are they looking for when assessing managers?

30:54 - Making allocation to emerging managers

33:10 - What characterize their managers?

34:48 - Assessing the scalability of a strategy

37:29 - What makes a good allocator

39:23 - Advice for independant hedge funds

41:40 - What types of early stage managers do they look out for?

42:55 - How they approach their portfolio construction

45:25 - How they manage fund constraints

46:48 - What is their typical ticket size?

47:31 - Reaching the right level of transparency

49:46 - Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager

51:14 - Managing drawdowns

52:56 - Their decision-making process

55:58 - How they approach commodities

57:33 - Advice for other managers

01:00:18 - Advice for people coming into the industry

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan

28 september 2024 | 64 min

In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:17 - Industry performance update

05:36 - Seasonality in markets

17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?

21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets

25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?

35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?

39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?

46:19 - A global conflict perspective

50:40 - How the election might impact commodities

52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation

53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over

57:13 - Dangerous periods ahead?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron

25 september 2024 | 65 min

In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Kevin on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published

06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis

09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?

17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?

23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?

30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated

32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes

34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?

37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?

45:09 - How could you make money from a carry unwind?

49:13 - Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?

53:47 - A new way of treating the S&P 500

56:33 - How the carry regime impacts the economy

59:15 - The impact of geopolitics on carry

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

21 september 2024 | 71 min

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:18 - Industry performance update

09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?

16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine

18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech

23:39 - The KuU framework

29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts

38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers

47:05 - Working with the 3 C's

57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"

01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

18 september 2024 | 79 min

This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Catching up

05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?

12:58 - The state of the metal sector

22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading

28:41 - Getting the timing right

42:51 - It's all about volatility

44:38 - Playing the long game

47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?

52:40 - A carry trade bubble

54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?

01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?

01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast

01:08:40 - An over-demand of assets in China?

01:12:54 - Thoughts on the recent decline in oil

01:15:44 - What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne

14 september 2024 | 65 min

In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe

08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation

14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds

19:58 - The big macro picture

27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?

29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)

34:11 - The carry unwind

41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?

44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?

48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio

56:52 - A historical perspective on volatility

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

11 september 2024 | 59 min

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson

03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?

05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk

09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?

11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm

15:15 - The new area of tightness

18:27 - It is all about labour cost

23:46 - The deflationary power of technology

26:46 - The outlook of the labour market

32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness

39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?

43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises

46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt

52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver

7 september 2024 | 74 min

Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?

10:45 - Industry performance update

14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?

21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility

24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital

31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?

39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs

48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF

53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA index?

59:29 - The best way to think about indices

01:07:41 - Turning a backtest into an index

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Just Buy the Index!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell

4 september 2024 | 63 min

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell

03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets

06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities

09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?

12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective

18:19 - Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?

23:08 - Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?

32:44 - Is a debt crisis in sight?

39:48 - Howell's advice for allocating assets

42:45 - What has caused the reversal of the Yen?

48:02 - How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity

49:44 - Why are the G10 currencies so stable?

51:18 - A risk point on the radar

52:23 - The implications of the shift towards private credit financing

55:02 - A favorable environment for risk assets?

59:15 - Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?

01:00:11 - The outlook of the liquidity cycle

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer

1 september 2024 | 61 min

As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:17 - Industry performance update

08:07 - Just another August?

12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?

14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?

25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation

31:56 - Staying in sync

35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies

43:42 - A world premiere!

51:05 - An index madness

53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things

56:02 - How the new index works

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

28 augusti 2024 | 62 min

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?

07:29 - Signs of weakness?

09:31 - The key indicators of weakness

12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?

15:26 - Assessing the savings rate

17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy

20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?

22:00 - Challenges in the banking system

24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?

27:11 - Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued

29:26 - Are AI companies in trouble?

35:51 - The long term economic impacts of AI

37:46 - Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?

40:17 - Berezin's outlook for Fed policy

42:47 - Rate cuts = recession?

45:42 - The state and outlook of the U.S housing market

47:25 - An unsustainable budget outlook

50:44 - Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?

52:19 - An upside for the yen

53:53 - A collective cutting of rates

55:06 - Has globalization run its course?

56:40 - The structural outlook for commodities

58:51 - What should you focus on?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan

24 augusti 2024 | 63 min

Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?

11:48 - Industry performance update

18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting

33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data

36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement

48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement

52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills

21 augusti 2024 | 61 min

In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills

09:05 - What causes revolutions?

12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector

22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?

29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?

37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director

44:13 - The future of battery technology

48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?

52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will challenge the economy

56:16 - Is the economy stronger than we think?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski

17 augusti 2024 | 59 min

Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?

05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?

08:57 - Industry performance update

17:19 - Connecting the dots

23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?

27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?

30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle

35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed

42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry

47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?

55:34 - Sticking to the process

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson

14 augusti 2024 | 65 min

Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow John on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson

05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?

08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment

11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?

13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations

18:13 - More art than science

19:15 - Define your objectives clearly

20:51 - A multi-strat dominance - pros and cons

25:14 - Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies

28:32 - How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio

30:48 - How Jackson approaches return expectations

33:13 - Typical number of managers

34:00 - The role of hedge funds

35:44 - Their process of selecting managers

38:56 - What makes an opportunity compelling to them?

43:28 - How they trade in the systematic space

45:10 - Quant managers - are they any different?

47:08 - AI and machine learning in the quant space

49:25 - How important is transparency?

50:54 - Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster

54:07 - Identifying talents in the manager space

56:18 - How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?

57:52 - The pros and cons of committees

01:00:21 - Getting through the committee

01:02:12 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas

10 augusti 2024 | 65 min

Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:49 - Industry performance update

05:37 - An eventful week

11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context

18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?

26:40 - How trend following performs according to data

29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?

34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?

45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?

50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?

54:58 - The evolution of risk management

01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlines

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran

7 augusti 2024 | 65 min

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Aswath on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran

03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?

04:47 - How AI will impact the economy

10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks

14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other

17:58 - A sticky market

22:40 - How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?

31:07 - Are value investor becoming obsolete?

35:49 - What is the equity risk premium?

40:28 - How much equity risk premium is enough?

45:08 - Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets

50:01 - Inflation and its impact on stocks

51:51 - Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone

53:08 - The link between GDP and earnings

54:31 - The importance of investing globally

57:35 - Can assets with no cash flows be valued?

58:27 - Managing the risk

01:01:56 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan

3 augusti 2024 | 68 min

Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:38 - A surprise question for Cem

06:26 - Industry performance update

08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?

14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use

16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?

20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?

24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?

34:30 - An unfathomable situation

38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves

47:14 - More conflict incoming?

50:37 - What causes stress in the financial systems?

01:01:50 - The wobble is happening

01:05:51 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder

31 juli 2024 | 58 min

In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder

03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?

05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production

09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production

17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?

23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium

25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries

31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible?

34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining

39:19 - A part of the people

41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.

43:46 - Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?

47:25 - The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry

52:00 - How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski

27 juli 2024 | 66 min

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?

03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:20 - Bills = money?

09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?

13:38 - Industry performance update

16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??

26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"

31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity

35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?

40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio

48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk

53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading

01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan

24 juli 2024 | 67 min

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy

10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade

18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?

27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation

34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right

46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election

51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?

55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?

01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne

19 juli 2024 | 63 min

Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work

09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high

09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing

11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election

19:50 - An unsustainable path

24:37 - Industry performance update

27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?

34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator

38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"

48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation

01:00:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK SI305: Building a Hedge Fund Allocation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

17 juli 2024 | 63 min

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen

05:45 - Was it all about luck?

07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?

12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?

13:56 - The political pressure on central banks

16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting

23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?

29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?

35:16 - The lags of monetary policy

39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism

48:15 - Posen's view on the economy

51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?

53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?

01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson

13 juli 2024 | 67 min

Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Graham on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson

03:40 - How Graham came across trend following

04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far

08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?

09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets

11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers

14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance

20:45 - Industry performance update

22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies

26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following

31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested in trend following?

34:16 - Why ESG means different things to different strategies

38:05 - How much should investors allocate to trend following?

41:05 - How to change people's minds about trend following

43:59 - Changing the narrative in the trend following industry

47:28 - Man AHL's general approach to research

55:15 - Graham's perspective on AI in the trend following industry

01:00:20 - A new approach to 60/40

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox

10 juli 2024 | 49 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Cole on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management

08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy

10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?

15:41 - Understanding your investor base

18:07 - Understanding their correlation

19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks

24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?

27:52 - How they approach dividends

29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?

30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?

32:36 - How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side

33:12 - Dilution vs. concentration

37:15 - The impact of volatility drag

39:43 - Improving the experience of investing

42:01 - A compliment or full portfolio strategy?

45:57 - What are the most important lessons they have learned?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

6 juli 2024 | 61 min

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:59 - Industry performance update

06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply

09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade

11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?

13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?

19:57 - When does it all end?

24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?

27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?

33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?

35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective

42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing perspective

45:36 - How will a win for Trump impact the economy?

47:56 - Looking outside of the U.S.

53:06 - Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?

54:52 - Good times ahead for gold?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

3 juli 2024 | 57 min

Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Claudia on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm

04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule

08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?

12:37 - Putting the data together

18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?

23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?

29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?

35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate

40:42 - The state of physical policy

45:32 - The growth picture from a long term perspective

50:32 - The positive sides of inflation

53:17 - Book recommendations and advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas

29 juni 2024 | 68 min

This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:00 - Industry performance update

05:32 - Reversions incoming?

07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm

14:20 - Getting the speed right

17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?

24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica

38:16 - Capping the beta

45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs

50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding

26 juni 2024 | 77 min

Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:49 - Introduction to General Robert Spalding

03:38 - What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?

08:44 - Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?

10:33 - A visionary perspective

15:37 - TikTok - The ultimate weapon?

21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?

30:49 - How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?

42:28 - Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan

54:29 - How hot can a cold war get?

58:31 - Is there no way back?

01:00:51 - The vulnerability of infrastructure and data

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver

22 juni 2024 | 66 min

Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:26 - A quick talk on football (soccer)

02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?

09:37 - Industry performance update

12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?

26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one

33:39 - A discussion on elections

38:36 - The U.S election - a perfect storm?

44:41 - Should you be cautious about the AI hype?

57:04 - Finding the right level of fees that investors should pay?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN

19 juni 2024 | 51 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein

05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?

14:18 - The perfect match?

15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?

16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?

19:32 - The dangers of overoptimization

23:00 - What are their definition of risk?

27:20 - Are more markets better?

33:21 - Their research process

37:18 - What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?

39:01 - How they use synthetic markets in their trading

41:20 - Their considerations about cash equities

43:30 - Why are they trading the VIX index?

46:36 - What is the outlook for trend following?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan

15 juni 2024 | 57 min

Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:03 - Industry performance update

07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?

11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system

14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes

18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies

41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?

51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"

Resources discussed in this Episode:

SI300: Optimal Trend Following Rules Paper

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg

12 juni 2024 | 57 min

In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg

06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation

09:21 - It takes two to tango?

11:09 - The importance of listening

13:42 - The magic of understanding each other

15:05 - What is stopping us from having deep connections?

18:40 - How to ask the right questions

23:18 - Advice for having meaningful conversations

28:02 - The business value of deep connections

31:27 - The importance of non-verbal communication

36:28 - How to match the mood of other people

38:48 - The role of identities in communication

42:23 - What does Duhigg means with "identity threat"?

47:48 - How does it apply online?

51:11 - Communication vs. manipulation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer

8 juni 2024 | 70 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?

09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?

19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?

21:35 - Industry performance update

23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?

32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie

40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world

43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?

49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew

56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?

01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott

5 juni 2024 | 64 min

Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Bob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?

04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success

07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework

10:46 - The outlook for interest rates

15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?

20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation

25:48 - The role of demographics

30:04 - A collective memory

32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio

36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification

42:22 - How to get access to alternative markets

46:24 - What drove Elliott intro replication?

51:45 - Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way

57:15 - The state of the global exchange rate markets

01:00:44 - Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski

1 juni 2024 | 60 min

Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:56 - Industry performance update

07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space

13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?

17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?

21:43 - Use cases for ETFs

25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?

28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?

32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?

34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space

40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products

43:30 - Should you consider fees when building ETF models?

47:32 - How to choose the right replicator

51:06 - How AI might affect the trend following industry

56:55 - A red card to AI?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle

29 maj 2024 | 68 min

Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on X

Follow Gary on X

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle

05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism

12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?

20:06 - What will drive the new political order?

29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed

36:19 - Do banks have too much power?

43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?

47:24 - The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism

53:34 - The challenges of the technological evolution

01:02:16 - Thoughts on how the election might end up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne

25 maj 2024 | 63 min

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart?

09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?

11:52 - What is neoliberalism?

12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape

19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose?

22:42 - Industry performance update

25:39 - What is going on with quant macro?

32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?

34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?

37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey?

39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?

47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay

49:46 - How multi-strategy funds achieve smooth return streams

01:00:09 - Multi-strat managers - contact us!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

22 maj 2024 | 70 min

In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.

Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels

06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity?

12:11 - What is the chance that productivity could increase?

17:36 - When can we expect productivity to increase?

19:51 - Will AI "steal" our jobs?

24:43 - How you can navigate in the AI trends as an investor

32:17 - Is it even possible for "normal" investors to benefit from AI?

35:26 - Is the energy transition a good investment?

40:51 - A new commodity or metal super cycle?

45:10 - Exploiting the commodity trends

48:12 - Is natural gas a good transition fuel?

52:01 - Why is Philippe so positive on gold?

56:48 - What are their inflation expectations?

01:02:19 - Challenging years ahead?

01:08:00 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

18 maj 2024 | 64 min

Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?

12:17 - Discussing the data

18:30 - Industry performance update

21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?

25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism

29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager

36:31 - The fallacy of consensus

40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower

43:14 - Is price truth?

47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?

54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following

57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin

15 maj 2024 | 66 min

Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin

06:31 - A noticeable shift?

08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?

13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator

18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?

24:24 - Balancing competing forces

30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios

33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?

40:00 - The dangers of pessimism

44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies

48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers

51:15 - Their manager selection process

55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?

58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing

01:02:40 - Advice for other allocators

01:05:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas

11 maj 2024 | 61 min

Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?

12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?

15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!

16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?

27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?

35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?

39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?

46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times

57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?

59:09 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows

8 maj 2024 | 68 min

In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Tad on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows

12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors

15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?

19:52 - Why not the traditional route?

23:14 - How are they allocated?

27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio

35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?

40:18 - Micro or macro?

45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets

47:04 - Why are they staying away from hedge funds?

49:32 - Why are they using trend following?

52:24 - Their thoughts on crypto

56:29 - Generating ideas and finding priorities

01:01:29 - Advice for other investors

01:07:05 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan

4 maj 2024 | 56 min

Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?

06:53 - A recap of April

10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following

14:30 - The interesting commodities

18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?

20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022

22:51 - How commodity storage functions

29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence

32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works

35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation

42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?

47:06 - Manual or systematized?

48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities

53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?

54:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

1 maj 2024 | 65 min

In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework

07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation

12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?

21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?

27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?

32:16 - How election periods affect the economy

40:22 - A wall of worry

43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility

48:03 - A push-pull effect

51:41 - Is trend following the solution?

54:39 - The optimal portfolio in 2024

01:01:04 - A time of opportunity?

01:03:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan

27 april 2024 | 59 min

Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?

03:11 - Industry performance update

05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?

12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro

18:09 - Important market development recently?

31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios

35:48 - The structure of markets

42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?

48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative

53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump

56:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic

24 april 2024 | 67 min

Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Marko on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Marko's current macro framework

07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world

14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?

23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane

31:48 - The election - a macro black hole

36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective

44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?

49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?

56:15 - Creating strong relationships

01:02:50 - Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?

01:05:30 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver

20 april 2024 | 62 min

Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:15 - Industry performance update

09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?

13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?

20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?

26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?

27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy

32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation

41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation

46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa

57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence

59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer

17 april 2024 | 58 min

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer

04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?

07:19 - What drives the cycles?

09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles

12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?

14:39 - Interpreting the signals

17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?

21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?

26:54 - Are companies losing their margins?

29:17 - The potential of AI

31:54 - Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?

35:48 - Where will the investment in AI come from?

40:00 - Going full cycle

41:37 - The engines of growth

43:43 - Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?

48:13 - The role of central banks

51:22 - Getting out of a period of high debt

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan

13 april 2024 | 70 min

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?

08:33 - Industry performance update

16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?

24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?

27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?

31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?

37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?

42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach

46:44 - What about the fees?

50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?

58:45 - The impact of crises

01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter

01:08:26 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd

10 april 2024 | 71 min

Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Todd on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital

05:43 - A global macro perspective

09:45 - How has the industry evolved?

13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?

17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?

20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds

25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies

29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors

33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?

39:11 - How are allocations funded now?

42:28 - CTAs - competitors or a different allocation?

44:44 - Does capping the beta make sense?

49:21 - Are investors becoming too difficult?

52:49 - Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence

58:13 - Has trend following changed because of AI?

01:02:53 - Excitement and concerns for 2024

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK TTU146: Aspect Capital Insights

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer

6 april 2024 | 75 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:38 - Industry performance update

06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?

11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?

13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following

16:58 - Industry performance update continued

18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?

22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?

30:51 - A period of normalcy

34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative

42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?

46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?

52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)

57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation

01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation

01:07:11 - Different allocations for different situations?

01:11:10 - Too old for unrealistic expectations

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Man Institute

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec

3 april 2024 | 57 min

Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec

07:06 - A new initiative

10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?

12:40 - What goes into which bucket?

14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?

16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio

18:38 - How they approach trend following

21:58 - Why do they use leverage?

23:32 - What do they expect from their portfolio?

25:12 - Managing liabilities

27:58 - Public equities - where do they stand?

30:59 - Investing in niche strategies

34:11 - How they evaluate managers

36:21 - Open to early stage manager risk?

41:42 - What makes a manager stand out?

44:56 - When should you remove a manager?

46:47 - What is their governance process?

50:36 - How they make decisions as a team

52:20 - Advice for new investors

55:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski

30 mars 2024 | 67 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman

03:54 - Things are changing

09:54 - Industry performance update

13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing

16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa

21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect

24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?

28:31 - Less markets = better performance?

30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market

39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index

45:09 - A euphoric environment

49:47 - What makes trend following unique?

54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following

59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets

01:03:15 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser

27 mars 2024 | 59 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.

Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Tony on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser

04:07 - An interesting journey

16:50 - A difficult space for alpha

20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?

28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?

33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?

45:28 - A shock to the system

49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?

57:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne

23 mars 2024 | 60 min

Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?

05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?

14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?

20:41 - Industry performance update

24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook

32:29 - Equities are here for the long term

37:57 - All in on equities?

44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong

46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?

50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?

53:28 - Choosing the right strategy

58:00 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion

20 mars 2024 | 46 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn

Follow Pedro on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro

06:18 - What is their edge?

07:57 - What commodities are they trading?

08:46 - Why they don't trade cocoa

11:09 - Acquiring information through networking

13:40 - Why and how do they trade commodity equities

17:15 - What do they consider long-term?

19:38 - Why isn't copper sky rocketing?

22:01 - Their approach to options

22:50 - How they incorporate trend following in their trading

25:24 - Global macro perspectives

27:28 - No hard landing?

28:35 - Is the coal market dying?

31:14 - The outlook of EUAs

35:03 - Do they formulate a price target in their models?

37:08 - A disconnect in the green transition

38:58 - Natural gas market integrating with LNG

40:55 - Their view on the grain markets

43:34 - A quick touch on other markets

44:20 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski

16 mars 2024 | 59 min

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?

06:24 - Industry performance update

07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?

11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?

12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator

15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction

20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?

21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio

24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?

25:25 - The importance of skewness

31:06 - Mind the timeframe

34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)

38:15 - No pain, no gain...

43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)

47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption

50:48 - Excitement and worries about 2024

57:05 - What is up for next episode?

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland

13 mars 2024 | 62 min

Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Tor on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland

06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?

09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?

11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm

14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets

17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?

20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?

22:55 - Translating trends into trades

24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?

26:55 - A slow transition

31:14 - The temperature of the global economy

35:21 - Where will we see signs of recession?

39:13 - Is disinflation a major trend?

41:14 - How extreme can it get?

42:42 - How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??

45:13 - How the defense spending will impact markets

47:07 - Taking advantage of the spikes in markets

51:06 - How volatility sellers affect markets

52:56 - Additional observations in the commodity markets

55:18 - Putting it all together

56:52 - Why has gold miners been so slow?

58:27 - Private capital taking over?

59:20 - Advice for other investors

01:00:30 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver

9 mars 2024 | 72 min

This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:31 - Industry performance update

13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?

23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?

26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?

32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?

43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing

50:37 - A win for trend following

59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?

01:01:53 - The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation

01:09:57 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie

6 mars 2024 | 59 min

In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie

09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?

10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?

16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?

19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?

21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?

23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?

26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs

30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?

34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable

37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?

40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?

43:16 - Managing the plastic waste

47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste

49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist

56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan

2 mars 2024 | 68 min

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:13 - Industry performance update

08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?

11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets

18:08 - Is the VIX broken?

24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections

30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?

32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's

39:15 - What is going on with flows?

47:55 - The rise of meme stocks

52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar

59:59 - A wild ride for Japan

01:05:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen

28 februari 2024 | 65 min

Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm

06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?

09:16 - Their investment philosophy

14:33 - A skepticism about equities?

17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?

21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?

25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets

28:20 - Where lies the most risk?

30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space

33:21 - Building a strong defense

38:29 - Why don't more people invest?

40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro

45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection

49:29 - How important is performance?

51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process

56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers

59:55 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas

24 februari 2024 | 67 min

Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?

03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown

05:35 - Industry performance update

07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?

14:24 - The state of the industry

18:17 - Is trend following flopping?

27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios

36:15 - Pick your battles

49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?

53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?

01:04:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot

21 februari 2024 | 67 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn

Follow Bowmoor Capital.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot

05:19 - How did they get into investing?

09:43 - Why trend following?

13:55 - Solving the market puzzle

15:36 - How they designed their strategy?

18:46 - The reason for their market selection

24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?

31:13 - How did they design their system?

39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets

42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?

50:13 - Controlling the heat

55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?

57:26 - How do they manage the heat?

01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing

01:05:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan

18 februari 2024 | 72 min

Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?

07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy

08:33 - Industry performance update

11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?

17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks

36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance

44:42 - Is bigger always better?

52:43 - The importance of system diversification

01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters

01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market

01:09:41 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff

14 februari 2024 | 63 min

Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Kiril's work on 13D.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff

05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?

11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?

14:30 - Is China still investable?

17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis

18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective

23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?

25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?

27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy

29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China

33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years

35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?

39:13 - A move away from the dollar

44:50 - Understanding the gold market

49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?

51:30 - India - the next China?

53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?

55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls

57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas

59:24 - Advice for other investors

02:02:03 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer

11 februari 2024 | 69 min

Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:53 - A dark time

04:24 - Industry performance update

10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)

21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?

33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important

35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space

38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?

43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?

53:22 - An update on the ETF space

56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds

58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse

01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?

01:06:32 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald

7 februari 2024 | 62 min

Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Frances on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald

06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?

13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?

20:43 - Where are the weak spots?

23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?

27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy

39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?

51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?

53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?

59:35 - Advice for the other investors

01:01:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

3 februari 2024 | 57 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?

02:27 - Industry performance update

06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat

12:14 - The drivers of price

17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period

22:48 - Managers have different personalities

29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?

32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis

39:32 - More markets = better returns?

44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms

49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?

54:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson

31 januari 2024 | 63 min

In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson

10:27 - The importance of psychological safety

15:04 - The different types of failure

18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?

22:54 - The idea of reframing

25:04 - Practicing reframing

27:06 - Has the way students work changed?

30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset

32:40 - Integrating feedback the right way

36:16 - The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method

41:02 - The key aspect of failing well

44:48 - How can we cultivate intelligent failure?

50:35 - Conceptualizing excellence in a new way

53:33 - Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property

56:33 - A philosophical perspective

01:00:36 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne

27 januari 2024 | 65 min

As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:26 - The importance of liquidity

06:39 - The global macro picture

11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?

16:10 - What about China?

21:24 - Industry performance update

24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?

32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds

37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns

43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?

55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?

57:28 - The outlook of the next decade

01:02:32 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark

24 januari 2024 | 61 min

Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Casey on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark

07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?

10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?

12:04 - Who are their clients?

12:45 - How do they build their strategies?

14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI

16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?

17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers

21:49 - Having the right benchmark

24:34 - What makes a good investment process?

26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?

30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind

34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?

36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?

41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape

50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?

54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski

20 januari 2024 | 59 min

In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - A funny story from Katy

02:34 - An important shout-out

03:42 - A rare event in Denmark

06:55 - Industry performance update

08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far

09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following

13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies

24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?

28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?

32:53 - Looking back at 2023

37:48 - An unusual year

43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income

47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?

51:11 - What does your position mean?

54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?

56:10 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK 279: From Bears to Bulls?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

17 januari 2024 | 82 min

Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dave on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation

07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?

14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity

24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?

31:35 - A system under pressure

38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?

42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?

53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?

01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin

01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver

13 januari 2024 | 71 min

Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?

10:14 - Industry performance update

11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?

19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system

29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program

37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?

41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies

45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!

52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin

01:04:31 - Looking into 2024

01:08:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson

10 januari 2024 | 47 min

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Scott on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson

08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?

13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?

20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?

22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?

24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?

26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading

30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach

31:26 - A need for long-term?

33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?

34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?

35:30 - Their core research philosophy

37:53 - The key barriers to entry

39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?

41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?

43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space

45:36 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan

6 januari 2024 | 66 min

Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?

11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?

16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?

24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation

27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?

32:19 - Under the hood of inflation

34:23 - What is normal?

39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world

46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?

49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective

53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball

59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge

01:03:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast

3 januari 2024 | 65 min

In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast

04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse

07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?

09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy

13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?

16:32 - Could we have another 2022?

18:56 - Having metrics for success

26:50 - Managing cash flow

31:43 - Shooting for a higher return

39:33 - Dealing with bumps on the road

43:48 - Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry

46:29 - Working as a Europe based FX investor

51:10 - Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point

55:13 - How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation

59:46 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2

30 december 2023 | 73 min

In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable world

09:50 - What is a considered as a good backtest?

21:09 - How much change is too much change?

28:50 - Our most important lesson in 2023

36:11 - What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?

46:01 - Geopolitics and looking into 2024

55:42 - Should we go all out diversification?

01:05:14 - Outrageous predictions for 2024

01:10:32 - Happy New Year!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters

27 december 2023 | 59 min

Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters

05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?

06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro

11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve

15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?

19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot

22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias

24:11 - The yield is destiny

27:28 - What range are we operating in?

28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?

33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization

35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers

38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy

42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio

44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets

46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function

49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?

51:29 - The possibilities of recession

56:19 - Advice for other investors

57:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1

22 december 2023 | 64 min

Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor

03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024

13:06 - Let's talk about volatility

19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective

25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns

40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?

50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves

01:02:00 - End of part 1

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland

20 december 2023 | 46 min

In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book

04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started

09:14 - How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats

11:03 - The logic behind the "baseball cards" concept

13:03 - How Dalio interpreted and rigged the outcome of the baseball cards

14:52 - How well known was Dalio's "rigged" rankings?

16:06 - How did Dalio's "trial" methods work?

21:03 - What can we learn from Ray Dalio's principles?

23:12 - How the MC Cycle functioned

27:55 - What is Dalio's core skill?

29:46 - Did Dalio believe in his own principles?

33:03 - Why Copeland is comfortable with his narrative about Dalio?

38:00 - Why don't we see a bigger footprint from Bridgewater in the markets?

40:57 - Did Bridgewater investors not notice?

44:30 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas

16 december 2023 | 66 min

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?

05:09 - Industry performance update

06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?

17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?

25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?

33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends

42:19 - Know when to be long and short

45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation

52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough

57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio

01:03:57 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin

13 december 2023 | 65 min

AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Klee on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin

07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment

23:53 - The retro causality experiment

26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis

50:16 - What is going on with AI?

59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?

01:02:10 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan

9 december 2023 | 68 min

How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:08 - Industry performance update

08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?

13:36 - Trading with different models

15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?

18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)

20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS

25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets

30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets

33:59 - Self organization

36:33 - Adaption and evolution

40:10 - Feedback loops

43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?

49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics

01:01:14 - Summing it all up

01:04:48 - What's next?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly

6 december 2023 | 63 min

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow David on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly

05:44 - What has become of the recession?

08:38 - Are we missing an accident?

11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?

13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?

14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?

17:15 - What happened to the bond market?

19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?

21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade

23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.

27:29 - A new equilibrium

30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale

33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment

35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?

39:04 - The magnificent seven

40:50 - A political mess

44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?

47:55 - Managing the labour shortage

50:13 - An all-time high misery

51:36 - A discontent with the economy

53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape

56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?

57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?

59:07 - Advice for investors

01:01:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer

2 december 2023 | 75 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke".

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:04 - Industry performance update

08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?

13:19 - A turn away from trend?

18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication

27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach

33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading

41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?

48:17 - The great underestimated risk

51:30 - What drives asset flows?

01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?

01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM

01:11:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia

29 november 2023 | 61 min

Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Anant on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia

06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR

08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?

10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?

14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?

17:07 - An example of one of their trades

21:17 - Staying away from the physical side

23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades

27:18 - Managing the cost of trades

29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19 period?

34:37 - How many markets are they trading?

36:49 - The process of trading copper

38:43 - How do you obtain transportation costs?

40:47 - Achieving the optimal trading efficiency

43:37 - A multi-legged trading strategy

47:34 - Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets

50:50 - Putting it all together

54:39 - Building for negative tail events

57:26 - What kind of exposure do they have?

59:17 - Key takeaways

59:58 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

25 november 2023 | 69 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?

02:20 - Industry performance update

04:51 - What is going on in the markets?

09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs

11:45 - Confusion in the markets

14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?

20:24 - Mixed signals

22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?

25:33 - Modeling with personality

32:25 - Losers create diversification

36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten

38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth

47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?

50:34 - Does new = better?

56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right

59:31 - Don't overstep your capacity

01:01:29 - Minimizing slippage

01:04:23 - What is a reasonable level of slippage

01:06:48 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins

22 november 2023 | 65 min

Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dario on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins

07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?

12:27 - Where are we now?

17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?

23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?

26:37 - A sticky inflation

28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?

32:52 - A concern for real-estate?

38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?

46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?

51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?

59:11 - The outlook for asset allocation and currencies

01:03:42 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne

18 november 2023 | 66 min

Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?

09:44 - Industry performance update

15:33 - A new war in sight?

21:17 - News about the US savings rate

23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?

30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies

41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio

50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation

58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power

01:03:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman

15 november 2023 | 56 min

Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Maia on LinkedIn

Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem

08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?

11:35 - What is driving carry trading?

15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?

17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification

20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?

22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?

24:40 - What is their core client base?

28:38 - How are they giving their clients an edge?

30:25 - Concerns about the commodity space

32:30 - How they analyze and validate their work

36:23 - A long term strategy

40:01 - How have they evolved over time?

43:20 - A changing landscape?

46:54 - A move towards machine learning and AI

48:59 - Learning from other asset classes

51:36 - An increased interest in non-standard commodity markets

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

12 november 2023 | 57 min

Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?

04:24 - A precursor for the conversation

05:21 - Industry performance update

07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective

11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"

16:06 - The results of the paper

21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference

24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted

26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?

33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?

35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?

37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change

42:52 - Different people, different perspectives

46:39 - Doing what happens next

48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data

54:54 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni

8 november 2023 | 56 min

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Edward on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini

07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?

11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?

14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?

19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?

25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis

29:08 - Will AI save us?

32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth

36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?

41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?

44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?

45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?

47:50 - The outlook for equities

52:14 - The U.S vs the rest

53:32 - Advice for new investors

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan

4 november 2023 | 65 min

Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:08 - What has been on Cem's radar recently?

03:15 - Industry performance update

05:25 - Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?

12:20 - Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?

15:52 - What is new in the macro space?

23:16 - Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?

27:43 - Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?

32:17 - Hidden dangers?

36:12 - Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation

40:28 - What current Flows are telling us

45:48 - Cem's takeaways from the CBOE RMC Conference

01:02:33 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm

1 november 2023 | 61 min

You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.

Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Mauritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to the new series

03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management

09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market

16:26 - What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?

19:55 - Entering and exiting trades

23:37 - How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades

30:53 - How PolarStar uses data

33:39 - Different kinds of maize (corn)

35:07 - How you size a spread within a portfolio

39:39 - The role and importance of storage

45:14 - Adjusting for seasonality

47:06 - Looking back on the last 2 years

49:47 - Why did traders not want European wheat?

55:46 - What happened to the wheat market?

56:58 - How tough is the commodity space?

59:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan

28 oktober 2023 | 86 min

In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?

07:53 - The investment landscape is changing

09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed

13:17 - Industry performance update

16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?

19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches

26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?

31:12 - The importance of correlation

40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"

48:00 - The use of continuous signals

53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?

59:13 - Discussing sample size

01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias

01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures

01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion

01:08:03 - Single asset level risk vs portfolio level risk

01:08:59 - Releasing the risk steam

01:10:37 - Using simple models

01:13:46 - Trend following - not so black and white?

01:22:45 - Thanks for hanging in there

01:24:11 - What's up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith

25 oktober 2023 | 59 min

Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Matt on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith

07:51 - The resilience of the economy

11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process

16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks

21:57 - The outlook for inflation

30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation

40:27 - What we can learn from history

46:19 - The process of finding insights from history

51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression

54:57 - Advice for other investors

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver

21 oktober 2023 | 62 min

Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:00 - Update on recent events?

09:13 - Industry performance update

09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?

12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia

17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities

21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?

35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?

40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following

42:15 - Trading with different account sizes

45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy

51:45 - Using boot strapping

52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy: What's your take on the AHL trend ETF?

59:20 - Q4.2, Tommy: Which scenarios do you expect equities and trend to be highly correlated?

01:01:12 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock

18 oktober 2023 | 60 min

There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Buy Larry's books here.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:27 - Introduction to Larry Hancock

05:34 - How classified programs work in the U.S

13:23 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?

17:09 - UAP activity around nuclear technology

22:33 - What are "they" interested in?

24:03 - The physics of UAPs

29:35 - Are UAP crashes real?

34:19 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act

38:50 - Are UAP encounters increasing?

46:53 - What are we dealing with?

52:09 - Are we getting closer or further from disclosure?

57:19 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas

14 oktober 2023 | 64 min

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?

04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies

09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?

17:28 - Adding carry to trend

22:52 - How to use utility functions

25:08 - Defining the variables

28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy

36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies

40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks

47:48 - Skewness in commodities

54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski

11 oktober 2023 | 64 min

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Troy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski

11:36 - A top-down macro perspective

19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio

26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?

30:47 - Analyzing the alt space

35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate

40:00 - An overweight of privates?

44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?

46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space

52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio

55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?

57:15 - Troy's perspective on AI tools

01:00:25 - Advice for other investors

01:02:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne

7 oktober 2023 | 62 min

Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?

06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?

10:45 - Who is to blame?

15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures

20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?

21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy

25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time

30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry

37:01 - A case of market segmentation?

40:00 - Are ETFs the future?

46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe

52:24 - A discussion on fees

54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?

58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

4 oktober 2023 | 65 min

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann

04:05 - The global macro perspective

08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds

12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues

21:35 - Is this inflation different?

28:15 - The lag of structural effects

32:04 - The age of abundance

36:45 - Time to shift back to active management

43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy

52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us

01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?

01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear

01:03:21 - Final thoughts

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski

30 september 2023 | 66 min

Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?

07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees

19:13 - Industry performance update

22:28 - How is the industry holding up?

25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space

28:55 - Performance numbers

30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same

41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable

46:42 - How psychology impacts markets

53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower

59:49 - A chronological snobbery?

01:04:03 - Important announcement

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson

27 september 2023 | 62 min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Helen on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson

06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?

10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency

17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?

21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy

25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?

29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?

34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?

37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?

42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?

44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?

48:35 - A challenged dollar?

53:16 - Is this time different?

57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne

23 september 2023 | 63 min

Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?

04:55 - Industry performance update

08:16 - Living with high public debt

20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt

24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved

32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?

37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?

40:36 - Where returns may go from here?

48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?

51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event

59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes

01:00:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu

20 september 2023 | 59 min

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation

37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis

58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds

01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams

01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’

01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas

16 september 2023 | 59 min

Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes

10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following

19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)

23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation

27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers

35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space

38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?

41:40 - Paper from Transtrend

47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio

52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper)

57:08 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater

13 september 2023 | 73 min

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?

04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability

06:19 - Being in the present

07:57 - Understanding the confidence map

12:08 - How to become confident

13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience

17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant

17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience

21:23 - Map it out

22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?

28:05 - The generational shift

30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?

36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?

42:57 - When does panic occur?

44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well?

48:34 - Thoughts on the current political situation

56:51 - Addressing major societal problems

02:03:56 - The challenges of fake news and media

02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer

9 september 2023 | 77 min

Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:20 - What has happened recently?

05:51 - Industry performance update?

07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?

13:55 - How did they test it?

17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?

25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?

29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?

32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?

41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?

47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years

54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy

56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land

01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?

01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry

01:14:21 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel

6 september 2023 | 59 min

In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nelson on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel

08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory

12:29 - A look around the globe

17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt

21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?

25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system

30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?

34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios

39:26 - Advice for investing in South America

48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)

56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski

2 september 2023 | 61 min

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:43 - Industry performance update

06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems

13:54 - Taking the bonds out?

16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters

19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?

23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy

26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?

32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?

36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?

37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?

40:32 - Are there different types of crises?

45:55 - A global macro perspective

51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?

55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable inflation

59:11 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

30 augusti 2023 | 57 min

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?

06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?

11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?

16:44 - The outlook for inflation

19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?

26:07 - Rates going back to zero?

28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth

31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production

32:57 - China - a deflationary force

38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?

39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?

42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?

42:54 - The situation in Europe

45:20 - Back to the 2010s?

46:36 - A global increase in spending?

47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective

51:00 - The Japanese economy

52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets

54:45 - Advice for other traders

55:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan

26 augusti 2023 | 86 min

Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?

08:04 - Industry perfomance update

14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?

20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum

30:30 - Different implementations, same results

45:47 - The role of correlation

50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems

01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio

01:21:04 - Know your manager well

01:24:19 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe

23 augusti 2023 | 82 min

Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe

03:43 - What characterise each turning?

17:53 - A generation cliff

25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 2008

27:55 - Cycles are non linear

30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst

35:56 - A polarised and divided world

41:29 - Can conflict bring us together?

48:30 - The outlook for war and conflict

52:12 - A millennial revolution

58:18 - Will boomers give up?

01:07:48 - How will society change?

01:19:57 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan

19 augusti 2023 | 68 min

Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?

03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns

08:27 - Industry performance update

09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?

17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?

20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning

33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?

39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro

50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?

52:07 - Major moves in markets

01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?

01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water

01:06:07 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin

16 augusti 2023 | 61 min

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin

05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy

10:14 - Where is inflation heading?

16:24 - A wrong prediction?

20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?

24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?

27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?

31:32 - Challenges in the credit space

33:33 - The implications of high valuations

36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system

40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.

44:43 - The outlook for currencies

47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China

49:43 - How is Asia holding up?

52:08 - Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?

56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade

58:23 - Advice for new investors

59:37 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski

12 augusti 2023 | 63 min

Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?

05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?

08:36 - Industry performance update

10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?

17:04 - The benefit of cash

21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?

26:18 - The dispersion within markets

32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research

39:23 - Stay open minded

43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs

56:53 - The road to robust models

01:00:37 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills

9 augusti 2023 | 60 min

Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book

10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?

15:46 - The Cloud Revolution

21:44 - Collecting data with AI

28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?

36:05 - Designing material with AI

40:08 - Getting more out of technology

48:43 - Working with robots

52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care

57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne

5 augusti 2023 | 71 min

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?

03:54 - The big macro picture

12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming

17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?

21:13 - A fear of Japanification

26:28 - Industry performance update

28:39 - A period of dispersion

33:36 - Calculating the return expectations

41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following

47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments

55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook

01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification

01:08:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober

2 augusti 2023 | 63 min

Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober

07:13 - Constructing a new reality

11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism

17:55 - Understanding consciousness

23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind

27:14 - The shared death experiences

28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?

31:50 - The role of psychic abilities

38:42 - The road to studying UFOs

44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new

49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case

52:33 - Where is this all going?

56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?

01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital

31 juli 2023 | 70 min

Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.

Episode Timestamps:

02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital

07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings

12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy

17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering

22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program

26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters

32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?

39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process

44:41 - The challenges of working with clients

48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?

54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?

57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"?

01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements

01:06:42 - Excitements for the future

01:08:23 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas

29 juli 2023 | 63 min

Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

06:28 - Industry performance update

07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning

17:54 - Is one better than the other?

22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning

29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?

43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend

50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?

01:00:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook

26 juli 2023 | 67 min

Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook

05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy

09:06 - The outlook for real estate

12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI

16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?

18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term

21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment

25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power

28:14 - Opportunities in markets

30:50 - Investing in sports teams

38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry

45:40 - Bad actors in the industry

49:44 - 50 shades of risk

54:25 - Finding the right people to work with

57:40 - Lessons learned

59:17 - Finding the next big thing

01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins

01:04:30 - Advice for new investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker

22 juli 2023 | 74 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?

04:38 - Industry performance update

05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing

10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?

13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?

16:35 - The best approach to trading markets

23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks

27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading

30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?

33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?

40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?

44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?

46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees

52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees

54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?

01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs

01:12:24 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan

19 juli 2023 | 80 min

When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Paul on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan

13:58 - The current state of Syria

18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts

24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?

27:13 - The challenges that China is facing

29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?

32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?

35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference

44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics

50:57 - The risk of complex technology

56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders?

01:03:07 - Expanding our intuition

01:07:58 - Hopes for the future and book recommendations

01:16:32 - Thanks for listening

01:17:01 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver

15 juli 2023 | 67 min

Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Update of the week

07:50 - Industry performance update

10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?

18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?

28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?

34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems

40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!

45:12 - Trading safely

52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space

57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew

01:05:04 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King

12 juli 2023 | 75 min

HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book

09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money

13:21 - Can it be deflationary?

17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect

30:29 - The unfairness of inflation

37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?

46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias

51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?

52:49 - A collapse in money supply?

55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?

58:31 - The current state of supply conditions

01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation

01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan

8 juli 2023 | 63 min

Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - An update on the Australian economy

02:50 - A global macro perspective

05:38 - Industry performance update

08:39 - A bias towards long term models?

20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect

25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole

26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets

39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems

54:05 - The stability of markets

57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets

01:00:32 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

5 juli 2023 | 63 min

Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter .

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave

05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?

10:40 - When is the recession coming?

13:13 - The outlook for inflation

18:36 - The problem with designification

21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy

27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?

31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China

36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets

40:20 - The structural growth in China

43:28 - Middle East joining forces

46:53 - Dealing with the debt

50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market

54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?

59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations

01:02:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan

1 juli 2023 | 60 min

Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:45 - The global macro perspective

03:07 - Industry performance update

04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year

09:14 - A deep dive into markets

24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup

39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?

45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ

48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays

53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?

56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays

58:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner

28 juni 2023 | 76 min

There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Izabella on Twitter.

Follow The Blind Spot.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?

09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?

15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?

19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon

26:20 - Classified information, lacking coverage and the Havana Syndrome

32:03 - A potential for geopolitical conflict

39:13 - The biggest underpriced risk in global markets

44:43 - Conspiracy theories and the weird factor

51:55 - Mass fragmentation and loss of trust in media

01:00:32 - What is happening at the South Pole?

01:06:56 - Inspiration and book recommendations

01:12:00 - Thanks for listening

01:12:39 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski

24 juni 2023 | 65 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What happened this week?

03:48 - Industry performance update

05:21 - Article on momentum gap

16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right

23:25 - What did not happen this year?

32:02 - AI and trend following

35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning

42:59 - Failure of models

52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models

56:28 - Being macro aware

01:00:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson

21 juni 2023 | 78 min

2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity

08:50 - The tipping point

20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon

29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now?

37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

42:25 - Evolving into a new human species

50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology

55:30 - The Global Event Rating Algorithm

58:33 - An acclimation process

01:08:56 - How did Jay get into the UFO subject?

01:14:17 - Final thoughts?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne

17 juni 2023 | 65 min

Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:58 - The big macro picture

13:25 - Industry performance update

16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?

28:00 - Using AI in trend following

32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds

39:36 - Being aware of your own biases

44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns

48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns

53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?

57:28 - The evolution of risk management

01:03:24 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao

14 juni 2023 | 60 min

As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Michael on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - The big macro picture

14:09 - The debt problem in China

20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict

24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand

31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?

38:41 - A complicated dynamic

41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?

45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk

48:53 - A structural problem

51:59 - Reimagining safe assets

58:27 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas

10 juni 2023 | 70 min

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:10 - What happened this week?

03:24 - Industry performance update

05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution

10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds

16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification

22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?

25:22 - The role of lookback

29:07 - Paper on economic trend

36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend

45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following

54:16 - Capping equity exposure

56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?

01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?

01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes

01:07:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz

7 juni 2023 | 63 min

Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Mika on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz

09:25 - Working with econophysics

10:52 - Finding the perfect size

12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing

13:19 - The macro perspective

16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve

18:46 - A changing environment

21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations

23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures

29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage

31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?

33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?

35:31 - How does cross margining work today?

36:51 - What happens with a large client trade?

38:59 - Dealing with regulations

42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?

45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits?

48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects?

50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated?

54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited?

57:06 - A confused market

59:19 - The outlook for the term premia

01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering

3 juni 2023 | 85 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - The macro perspective

03:56 - Industry performance update

06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF

09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?

17:40 - Tim's experience with indices

20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket

22:36 - A discussion on alpha

30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams

37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies

44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?

51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?

55:47 - Getting the timing right

01:00:49 - A terrible product?

01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?

01:08:07 - What is alpha?

01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?

01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right

01:13:21 - Question from Oliver

01:15:59 - Teasing the next debate

01:22:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone

31 maj 2023 | 72 min

Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Clint on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone

07:07 - Their approach to investment

12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?

15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations

18:32 - Building a model and strategy

23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio

30:52 - Getting the correlation right

34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns

39:04 - Building a multi-asset strategy

41:11 - Getting the speed right

44:39 - Stone's approach to trend following

46:34 - Evaluating managers vs. security analysis

49:05 - The search for capacity constraints

52:02 - The challenge of picking managers

53:41 - Working with real businesses

57:52 - What is a good investment process?

01:03:01 - Generalists vs. specialists

01:06:50 - Advice for new allocators

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI245: Which CTA Should You Buy ft. Rob Carver

27 maj 2023 | 65 min

Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - Update from Rob

07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"

12:41 - Industry performance update

15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction

20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?

27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?

32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals

37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?

42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?

49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?

56:08 - You need to know what you don't know

58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling

01:03:09 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg

24 maj 2023 | 66 min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg

08:00 - Rosenberg's research process

11:56 - The importance of historical awareness

25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve

31:16 - Getting the timing right

43:54 - The longer term trajectory

52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels

57:12 - A shift in the political landscape

01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro

01:05:02 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors

22 maj 2023 | 68 min

Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.

Episode Timestamps:

02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors

07:30 - Their investment philosophy

10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?

12:33 - The key to succes

14:06 - Their approach to open equity

17:22 - Staying true to trend following

20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile

23:15 - An evolving system

28:19 - Slow or fast?

30:44 - Being aware of volatility

32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum

37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"

40:05 - An adaptive process

43:58 - How they reach their goals

45:46 - Pros and cons of adding more markets

50:11 - How they manage risk

57:23 - How have markets changed over time?

01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements

01:03:53 - What is he excited for this year?

01:06:30 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan

20 maj 2023 | 58 min

Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Changes in the podcast format

01:30 - Review of the week

05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems

12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection

28:37 - The optimal process and results

30:58 - Diversification in manager selection

33:51 - Hunting the trends

46:29 - The Knowledge Project

55:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg

17 maj 2023 | 79 min

If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?

06:03 - Making sense of the oil market

10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market

16:38 - The situation with natural gas

25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?

32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?

46:51 - The outlook for gold

52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles

01:00:45 - The state of metals

01:04:18 - A metal crisis?

01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths

01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths

01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold

01:16:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan

13 maj 2023 | 67 min

Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - What happened this week?

06:56 - Industry performance update

08:38 - An interesting inflection point

16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms

21:25 - Why are people short today?

25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?

30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?

36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings

39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing

44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May

49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?

52:22 - The debt problem

01:01:09 - A society in decline

01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold

01:05:42 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL17: The Dangers to Democracy ft. Martin Wolf

10 maj 2023 | 54 min

This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf

07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?

14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy

18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?

23:15 - A changed view after the election?

27:29 - Making process in a divided country

35:00 - A sign of desperation

36:58 - Success takes small steps?

44:35 - The importance of local democracies

50:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

6 maj 2023 | 68 min

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?

10:59 - Industry performance update

14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?

19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour

25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness

30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets

34:31 - It takes two to crisis

39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?

41:56 - Is price all we need?

50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?

56:39 - Words of estimative probability

01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is

01:02:58 - Skew in trend following

01:05:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello

3 maj 2023 | 80 min

If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - The big macro picture

04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective

14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?

18:23 - A sticky situation

21:53 - A wealth of trades?

26:58 - A secular reality

29:17 - The banking situation

35:16 - A build-up effect

38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?

41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects

46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan

54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage

01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities

01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?

01:17:57 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI241: Trend Following...The Perfect Risk Mitigation Strategy ft. Alan Dunne

28 april 2023 | 67 min

Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:32 - Broad macro observations

10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles

14:44 - Looking towards China

18:53 - Trend following update

24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?

29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs

31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster

36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies

45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds

50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?

01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?

01:04:51 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan

26 april 2023 | 63 min

Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 - The big picture macro view

08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls

12:54 - The lag effect

20:31 - The impact of change in demographics

29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?

38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?

46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?

49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?

52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?

54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility

57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility

01:01:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

23 april 2023 | 71 min

Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Looking back on the week

13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series

19:23 - The impact of the SVB event

23:02 - Industry performance update

24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends

35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following

40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?

43:28 - Defending trend following

54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts

57:06 - The trend following narrative

01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital

01:09:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach

19 april 2023 | 61 min

Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach

07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent?

12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative

17:07 - A dangerous narrative

22:02 - A political backstep?

28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure

29:58 - The false narratives of China

40:47 - The fear of containment

45:27 - Potential ways forward

49:15 - The bilateral investment treaty

55:54 - How has Stephen's ideas been received?

57:56 - Thanks for listening

59:13 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management

17 april 2023 | 64 min

Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Metori Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management

04:08 - Their investment philosophy

09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe

18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program

21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations

24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe

27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters

30:18 - Their view on replication

32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers

35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets

39:30 - The risk of alternative markets

41:29 - Looking beyond China

42:18 - Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets

45:20 - Overcoming investors' trend following barriers

49:39 - The role of trend in a multi-asset portfolio

53:47 - Are risk mitigation strategies going out of fashion?

55:49 - Too much money in trend following?

58:57 - Trend following disagreements

01:00:56 - Expectations for 2023

01:02:55 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer

16 april 2023 | 65 min

Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 - What happened this week?

11:46 - Industry performance update

13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?

16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?

23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise

32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?

40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager

47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?

53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis

01:03:12 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule

12 april 2023 | 82 min

Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Rick on Linkedin.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule

04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets

16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy

28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets

30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon?

38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs?

44:26 - The pushback by the lower class

49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless?

56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand?

01:00:40 - Finding convex ways to invest in gold

01:06:49 - Too much hype in the narrative?

01:11:57 - Being a contrarian

01:14:15 - Learn more about Rick and his work

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management

10 april 2023 | 69 min

Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management

03:46 - Their investment philosophy

10:00 - A period of challenges

13:26 - Believing in change

15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?

23:02 - Looking back in time

30:42 - The role of short-term trading

38:56 - What drives short-term trading?

42:47 - Being smart with execution

46:09 - Dealing with the downsides

53:53 - Studying the markets

55:49 - The dangers of machine learning

58:41 - Capacity and liquidity in short-term strategies

01:05:33 - Short-term trading disagreements

01:08:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

8 april 2023 | 73 min

Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:40 - What happened since last time?

09:42 - Industry performance update

10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?

13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?

20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?

25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced

30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation

38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction

43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging

56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow

01:09:50 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen

5 april 2023 | 63 min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Barry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen

08:17 - A potential misuse of history

11:26 - A lesson forgotten?

14:25 - Are things starting to break?

16:49 - A lesson learned

18:44 - Should we be concerned?

22:19 - Are crises inevitable?

24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?

30:10 - The need for safe assets

36:02 - The state of the Euro

39:39 - Making alliances

43:17 - A change in approach

45:18 - The "right" amount of debt

49:21 - A systemic problem

51:25 - Dealing with the debt burden

54:09 - Secular stagnation

55:48 - UK guilt yield levels

57:10 - Concerns for private sector debt

58:24 - Debt in the emerging world

01:00:45 - How and where to learn more?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court

3 april 2023 | 73 min

Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Florin Court.

Episode Timestamps:

02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach

03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture

07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?

15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk

18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times

22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha

29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets

33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets

36:41 - From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Alternative Markets

40:10 - Working with Trend Following: Tips and Best Practices

47:33 - Managing Risk: An Inside Look at Florin Court's Process

52:06 - The Importance of Macro Awareness in Trend Following

56:02 - ESGs and Investing: A New Frontier?

58:12 - Living the Abu Dhabi Lifestyle

01:01:26 - Factors Impacting Performance: A Closer Look

01:04:54 - The Art of Navigating Different Opinions

01:08:15 - Concerns & Opportunities in 2023: What to Watch Out For

01:11:13 - Thank You for Listening: Closing Remarks

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan

2 april 2023 | 75 min

Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:16 - What happened this week?

08:34 - Unusual moves

15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness

20:44 - Industry performance update

22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events

27:17 - Keeping things simple

30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio

34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager

38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio

49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation

55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?

01:02:39 - The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator

01:12:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar

29 mars 2023 | 60 min

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book

11:42 - What will the new world bring?

17:01 - The problems with Big Food

21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?

28:08 - A realistic solution?

31:14 - A passion for manufacturing

37:22 - The pendulum is swinging

38:47 - An era of Hyper Localization

42:05 - The power of Additive Manufacturing

45:20 - The role of Data & the Story of Audrey Tang

55:15 - The 100 homes project

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica

27 mars 2023 | 81 min

Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Quantica Capital.

Episode Timestamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital

05:04 - Their investment philosophy

12:31 - What makes them unique?

17:09 - Reacting to trends

19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?

23:33 - Looking Sharpe

30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"

35:12 - Dealing with shocks

39:02 - The measurement methodologies

43:14 - The role of correlation

46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls

53:09 - Important discoveries

55:26 - Making adjustments in a larger portfolio

59:11 - The time scale perspective

01:05:07 - The pros and cons of CTA replication

01:10:42 - Setting return expectations

01:14:14 - Trend following disagreements

01:15:45 - Expectations for 2023

01:19:22 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan

25 mars 2023 | 65 min

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes

06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell

09:38 - The geopolitical perspective

12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx

18:03 - Weekly update

20:24 - The volatility winter

27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space

30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?

36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall?

44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks

48:09 - What are the signs to look for?

50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect economic policies

54:11 - The U.S debt ceiling

58:36 - Gamma vs Vega

01:03:01 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody

22 mars 2023 | 65 min

This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody

10:19 - The development path of East Asia

14:41 - The path that India did not take

19:32 - The path they did take

23:37 - Different versions of India

30:37 - What is Hindutva?

34:09 - The Guljurat model of development

39:34 - A corrupted government

46:17 - Finding the accurate data

51:45 - Press freedom in India

54:37 - India - the new China?

56:53 - Building a better India

01:02:23 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton

20 mars 2023 | 74 min

Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Winton Group.

Episode Timestamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Winton

05:05 - Their investment philosophy

09:25 - Where does opportunities arise?

10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?

13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha

20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative

22:41 - What about the non-trend?

25:22 - Need for speed?

27:49 - Their research process

31:19 - Accessing big events in markets

35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning

38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters

42:23 - The risks of CTA replication

44:57 - More markets = better?

50:09 - Staying balanced

52:23 - The strategies in a broader perspective

54:18 - Working with clients

55:22 - Their approach to risk manangement

01:00:18 - The worst possible scenario

01:01:24 - Preparing for the worst?

01:02:37 - Question about capping the ability to go long stocks

01:03:59 - How many trend followers do you need?

01:05:14 - Setting return expectations

01:07:33 - Trend following disagreements

01:11:05 - Expectations for 2023

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski

19 mars 2023 | 76 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:00 - What really happened this week?

19:19 - Industry performance update

25:21 - A tough week for trend

36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror

46:25 - SVB and trend following

52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world

59:20 - A changing world

01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series

01:13:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston

15 mars 2023 | 75 min

Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Rory on Twitter

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - SPR - What and why?

06:27 - Why crude and not refined products?

09:34 - How is the SPR used?

13:54 - Trading oil

19:54 - The goal of the SPR market

23:04 - How inventory drives oil price

28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking

29:43 - Theory vs. practice

33:28 - The mega energy companies

36:00 - Distortion in oil markets

41:20 - Can volatility be profitable?

47:35 - No specs = steeper or flatter?

50:11 - Advice on using the data

52:37 - Understanding signals in the oil market

59:17 - Dollar Wrecking Barrell

01:01:44 - Oil vs. gold and gas

01:09:07 - What makes money in high vol regimes?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU138: Need for Speed in Trendfollowing ft. Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager at PIMCO

13 mars 2023 | 63 min

Today, we are joined by Matt Dorsten, Portfolio Manager within the Quantitative Strategies group at PIMCO, for a conversation how they manage 60 billion dollars through different quant strategies, of which app. $5bn is in Trend Following. We discuss their process of constructing portfolios using a defensive approach and how they manage to simultaneously maintain a high Sharpe, keep a balance between long and short trades and how they use tail "hedging" in their design of the strategy. We also discuss why they believe having a broad universe of markets is key and why they see a big potential in exotic markets, why they believe it is better to trade faster as a trend follower when markets are liquid enough, their process of measuring the expected returns and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about PIMCO

Episode Timestamps:

02:28 - Introduction to PIMCO

05:11 - Their investment philosophy

11:11 - Too concerned about the Sharpe?

14:53 - A different Speed of trend following

18:13 - Building a defence against equity drawdowns

22:32 - Balancing the opposing forces

25:45 - A different approach to volatility correlation?

27:06 - Using machine learning

28:04 - The role of bonds

31:34 - The larger portfolio perspective

33:07 - Their research process

36:53 - Number of markets

39:01 - Their view on CTA replication

42:10 - Need for speed?

44:28 - Different models for different markets?

45:50 - Hitting the gas?

48:02 - Cap the equities?

49:14 - Adding non-priced based signals

50:31 - How many strategies do you actually need?

51:17 - What is second best Tail Hedge?

52:15 - Framing the expected outcomes

54:04 - Their sense on liquidity

55:38 - Trend following disagreements

57:05 - Expectations for 2023

59:49 - Running trend following in a bond shop

01:01:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI234: Trend Followers are minnows, not whales ft. Rob Carver

11 mars 2023 | 69 min

Today, I'm joined by Rob Carver for the weekly trend following conversation, where we reflect on the takeaways from the CTA series and the performance of the year so far. We discuss parameter and markets selection through research and testing and why Rob dislikes stops in moving average systems, what happens if a brokerage firm fails. We also discuss why you have to be cautious when using dynamic position sizing and Rob’s advice for using backtesting, how articles from big financial media often creates a false or skewed narrative in the way they present data and information, why adding a lot of instruments to your portfolio is not as good an idea as it might seem. And finally we discuss Rob's latest article in the Financial Times and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA series

04:57 - Performance update

09:59 - Q1, Gene: Question about underfitting and overfitting

16:47 - Q2, James: What types of stops are commonly used in moving average systems?

18:49 - Q3, Chris: How far back do you go in backtesting?

22:20 - Q4.1, Kyle: What happens if an FCM goes belly up?

26:37 - Q4.2, Kyle: Questions regarding "Following the Trend" by Andreas Clenow

39:22 - Applying a commission rate for your backtest

44:22 - Q5.1, Matthijs: The optimal moment to roll a contract?

46:14 - Q5.2, Matthijs: View on adding a defensive strategy to a multi-strat CTA?

47:52 - Q5.3, Matthijs: Why limit trend following to a small part of your portfolio

49:35 - Rob's article in FT

58:27 - Investor survey from BNP with predictions for 2023

01:00:49 - Diversification across instruments

01:06:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM36: Galactic Macro, UFOs & Balloon Encounters ft. David Dorr

8 mars 2023 | 83 min

What are some of the key takeaways when you marry global financial markets with potentially extraterrestrial influences? Global Macro investor David Dorr, has taken on that conversation. As government and national security services have begun to declassify information around UFOs, David is exploring the edge of what people are starting to talk about but financial markets haven’t yet embraced. Energy, defense, travel, technology, are points of influence in this conversation. Then there’s what Lockheed Martin may be sitting on that could be a real game changer. David has been following this line of research for quite awhile and feels that things are just now starting to break loose. David Dorr is the Managing Principal at Dorr Asset Management SEZC and has more than 25 years experience in trading, global macroeconomics, risk management and trading technology.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 - Introduction to David

05:43 - A touchy subject

12:48 - The Tic Tac incident

19:37 - The Navy ships incident

24:17 - What is Area 51?

27:03 - What happened in Mosul, Iraq?

28:29 - The New York Times article

30:41 - Who is Bob Lazar and why is he important?

34:40 - Connections in the UFO network

38:40 - Alfred O'Donnell & EE&G

41:50 - Are they saving us from ourselves?

43:20 - From rockstar to UFO researcher

48:47 - The importance of Jay Stratton

51:58 - Whistleblower protection laws

55:04 - The Wilson Davis memo

57:18 - What about other parts of the world?

01:02:11 - What's up with the balloons

01:04:25 - Why is this happening now?

01:09:35 - The best piece of evidence?

01:11:57 - What are being impacted?

01:16:58 - What keeps David up at night?

01:19:03 - Why not?

01:21:10 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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TTU137: A new approach to Entering Trends ft. David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners

6 mars 2023 | 70 min

Today, we are joined by David Gorton, CIO at DG Partners, for a conversation on how they use trend following to achieve a multi-billion dollar portfolio. We discuss how to become a better trend follower by understanding the weaknesses of the strategy and their approach to produce positive alpha, the challenge of timing trend following and how they focus on the conceptual trend without giving up the skew and how the "dark" 10-year period has affected their approach to volatility. We also discuss how they manage risk in an uncertain environment and the state of liquidity, whether trend following has a limit in terms of capacity and much more.

DG Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and only provides services to professional clients as defined under the FCA rules.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about DG Partners.

Episode Timestamps:

02:08 - Introduction to DG Partners

03:38 - Their road to trend following

12:13 - The weaknesses of trend following

16:00 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

19:10 - The dual mandate

22:51 - The trend following narrative

27:19 - Capturing the meat of trend following

30:24 - Need for speed?

38:13 - How many markets do they trade?

40:16 - Rethinking volatility?

43:01 - Their execution process

44:00 - Their view on CTA replication

47:39 - Risk management

51:36 - The state of liquidity

59:36 - The absence of pain

01:00:40 - Trend following in a broader portfolio

01:02:58 - Capacity in trend following

01:05:26 - Trend following disagreements

01:06:50 - Expectations for 2023

01:08:17 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI233: The Market Impact of CTAs & Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne

4 mars 2023 | 65 min

Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the broader perspective of the markets and the economy. We discuss how the unpredictablity of inflation and interest rates affect all parts of the economy and the transition from globalization to deglobalization, the size of the CTA and trend following industry and how articles on media like Bloomberg often creates a unrealistic narrative about CTAs through colorful headlines. We also discuss Why you should add trend following to your portfolio and How trend following is done, what we have learned from our recent conversations with the best CTA managers in the world and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:59 - Broad Macro observations

12:41 - How the economy responds to interest rates

17:03 - Moving in a new direction

20:54 - Reflecting on the month of February 2023

22:44 - Industry performance update

24:29 - Bloomberg article on CTAs impact on equity markets

31:41 - Colorful headlines

34:07 - Findings from Quantica paper on CTAs market footprint

43:45 - Why trend following & How to do it?

50:47 - Takeaways from the CTA series

01:02:51 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU136: Trend Following... C'est la vie ft. Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management

3 mars 2023 | 70 min

Today, we are joined by Philip Seager, Head of Absolute Return at Capital Fund Management (CFM), for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their investment strategy. We discuss their research on how trend following has performed historically and how they use the data in their trading and the role trend following play in their portfolio construction. We also discuss the right way of doing research when it comes to quant based strategies and how they differentiate themselves from other trend followers, how they keep risk stable and forecast gaps in markets, how you should use trend following in a multi-asset portfolio and how they estimate capacity, the risk of investing in a replicator strategy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Capital Fund Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Capital Fund Management

05:32 - Their investment philosophy

12:27 - Periods of under-performance

19:13 - Trend following - a small piece?

24:58 - Do Trend Followers have a dual mandate?

31:32 - Their research process

36:22 - Enhancing a trend program

37:46 - Using machine learning

40:47 - Different types of trend followers

46:56 - Controlling the risk

51:20 - Dealing with drawdowns

54:44 - Achieving convexity

57:03 - Looking in hindsight

00:58:26 - Addressing rebalancing, capacity and fees

01:05:38 - Trend following disagreements

01:08:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM35: The Drivers of the Commodity Markets ft. Nicky Ferguson

1 mars 2023 | 56 min

Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nicky on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science

09:42 - The major players in the energy markets

12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial

18:43 - Forecasting the flow

25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?

27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets

30:22 - Risk considerations

32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action

34:28 - Measuring demand

36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research

39:46 - Oil on water supply vs land supply

41:33 - The impact of the dollar changes

45:33 - Measuring expectations

48:00 - The state and future of Ferguson's business

53:49 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU135: Moving Beyond Pure Price Trends ft. Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management

27 februari 2023 | 81 min

Today, we are joined by Yao Hua Ooi, Principal at AQR Capital Management, for a conversation on how they use systematic tools like trend following, to take advantage of inefficiencies in markets. We discuss the pros and cons of risk premia strategies and how they manage to improve the Sharpe ratio while making sure the "dual" mandate is fulfilled, how they have moved beyond pure price trends as part of the evolution of their trend programs. We also discuss the process of building a trend following strategy and why they prefer to build models rather than mimic a strategy through linear regression, their approach to adding alternative markets to their portfolio, why they are always concerned about capacity and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about AQR Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:50 - Introduction to AQR

04:12 - Their investment philosophy

08:47 - Risk premia strategies

11:55 - A historical perspective

13:55 - Too focused on Sharpe?

22:24 - Changing the narrative

30:41 - Being unconventional

35:13 - Getting comfortable with the data

39:22 - The future for economical trend following

42:55 - Their research process

47:05 - The managed futures space

48:39 - Pricing trend following

55:00 - The need for daily liquidity

57:32 - The portfolio construction process

01:00:12 - The pros and cons of replication

01:04:25 - Applying risk management

01:05:40 - Adding new markets

01:09:19 - The role of trend following

01:13:08 - Reaching the limit

01:16:05 - Trend following disagreements

01:17:52 - Expectations for 2023

01:19:47 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI232: Trend Following the Trend Followers ft. Nick Baltas

26 februari 2023 | 69 min

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show following a head scratching period for inflation and interest rates the past few weeks. We discuss the state of the environment for trend following and the best way to select a portfolio of markets to trade, the pros and cons of "trend following the trend followers". We also reflect on Katy Kaminski’s take on Crisis Alpha and discuss the evolution of trend following and how it changes the way strategies are designed, why being too concerned about the Sharpe may impact your performance in unexpected ways and why it is important to be aware of your own biases and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - Market recap

04:21 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA Series

09:10 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

13:17 - Industry performance update

15:53 - Q1, Adam: Regarding applying systems to markets

23:41 - Q2, Tim: Thought on trend following the trend followers?

30:39 - Q3, Tim: Nick's thoughts on tracking the AUM?

37:19 - Crisis alpha - lost in translation?

49:43 - How trend following has evolved

53:44 - Are we too concerned about the Sharpe?

58:55 - Changing the narrative

01:05:02 - Trend following disagreements

01:07:29 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU134: Crisis Alpha Revisited ft. Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group

24 februari 2023 | 72 min

Today, we are joined by Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex Group, for a conversation on how they approach managed futures and trend following in their programs. We discuss how they work together with their clients to find the right solution for them and why it is important to understand the true meaning of Crisis Alpha, why commodities play a crucial role in times of crises and the key components of managing major disrupting events like COVID19. We also discuss why you might want an equity aware strategy, how they use machine learning to be more precise and prepared for moves in markets, how macro uncertainty impacts managed futures and trend following and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about AlphaSimplex Group.

Episode Timestamps:

02:01 - Introduction to AlphaSimplex Group

03:03 - Their Investment Philosophy

08:02 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

13:42 - How do you customize pure trend?

16:10 - Crisis Alpha - the true meaning explained

22:24 - The role of commodities in crises

26:22 - A need for speed?

32:20 - Capping the equity beta

39:36 - Their approach to CTA replication

44:59 - Machine learning as a research tool

48:30 - Simple vs. sophisticated

50:02 - CTA style factors

56:16 - All about bonds?

59:00 - An uncertain world

01:02:38 - The signs of change

01:06:23 - Trend following disagreements

01:09:03 - Expectations for 2023

01:10:52 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU133: How to deliver Convexity ft. Nigol Koulajian & Mike Harris of Quest Partners

20 februari 2023 | 76 min

Today, we are joined by Nigol Koulajian and Mike Harris from Quest Partners, for a conversation on how they use a research driven, quantitative and systematic trading approach to generate alpha. We discuss how they generate convexity and why they have chosen to focus on short-term time frames, why they believe some investors have become too focused on Sharpe and how they use trend following and crowding in their process. We also discuss how they use an adaptive learning technique to understand markets whilst being aware of the dangers of machine learning, the power and importance of data and the potential risks of replicating managers, why liquidity is dynamic and very unpredictable and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Quest Partners.

Episode Timestamps:

02:08 - Introduction to Quest Partners

03:34 - Their investment philosophy

07:35 - A structural change in markets

15:04 - Too focused on Sharpe?

20:55 - Creating momentum

24:18 - A move toward multi-strat?

37:35 - Managing the crowd

39:13 - The persistency of market environments

41:45 - A type of machine learning?

44:12 - The source of opportunities

48:34 - The "D" word

53:30 - Thoughts on CTA replication

01:00:12 - Being a short term manager

01:02:30 - Liquidity issues and changes in markets

01:09:15 - Trend following disagreements

01:12:46 - Expectations for 2023

01:14:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI231: The Perfect Fit for Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan

19 februari 2023 | 78 min

Richard Brennan joins us to reflect on the learnings so far from the new CTA series. We also discuss how to set your stop loss when entering a new position and why you should not allow your trend models to go "backwards", how to fit your model to price data and why it is important to understand the signal to noise ratio in your trading to avoid overfitting. Additionally, we discuss how random entries can work for your models, but why they are not truely random and the challenge of separating luck from real signal, why it is preferable to have an under-fit model as opposed to an over-fit model when developing a trend following system and how to reduce your chances of having an overfit solution. We round off our conversation discussing why trend following is not as easy as it might seem and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:17 - Reflecting on the CTA Series

09:55 - What happened this week?

12:42 - Q1, Jordan: Regarding setting stop loss when entering a position

15:39 - Q2, Mark: Entry lookback vs exit lookback?

19:23 - Signal to noise masterclass

36:03 - The Tom Basso experiment

46:34 - The challenges of creating models

52:40 - Avoiding overfit - Don't pick the "best" parameters

57:23 - Avoiding overfit - Apply the Golden Rules

01:00:19 - Using visual mapping

01:03:50 - Avoiding overfit - trade multiple markets

01:07:34 - Trend Following is not easy

01:14:04 - The January trend report

01:15:46 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU132: Trend Following Evolution ft. Ed Tricker, CIO of Quant Strategies at Graham Capital Management

17 februari 2023 | 76 min

Today, we are joined by Dr. Edward Tricker, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Strategies at Graham Capital Management, joined Top Traders Unplugged for a discussion on Graham's approach to quantitative macro investing. The discussion touches on a variety of interesting topics including the evolution of trend-following, diversification, portfolio optimization, and "crisis alpha." Dr. Tricker also discusses how Graham partners with investors to help them solve for their specific portfolio needs, as well as why collaboration is critical in his team’s research process and the firm's risk management philosophy.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Graham Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:16 - Introduction to Graham Capital Management

04:00 - Their investment philosophy

09:35 - The art of modelling

12:33 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

17:14 - Working together with clients

20:17 - The "real" objective

23:22 - Commodities - A saver in crises?

27:32 - What strategies to add in a 60/40?

32:54 - Their research process

37:28 - Evaluating managers and strategies

40:20 - Regime shifts and changes in markets

44:11 - Recalibrating parameter selection

48:34 - Their approach to look-back and signal generation

54:01 - Static vs. dynamic position sizing

59:03 - Liquidity in markets

01:02:17 - Reacting to changes in markets

01:06:34 - Discretionary interventions in markets

01:10:14 - Trend following disagreements

01:11:35 - Expectations for 2023

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM34: When Geopolitics meets Global Macro ft. Jacob Shapiro & Roger Hirst

15 februari 2023 | 74 min

Today we are joined by Jacob Shapiro and Roger Hirst. Jacob is the Geopolitics Editor at financial media company Lykeion, co-author of a monthly research publication focused on the converging worlds of Geopolitics and Macro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, and Founder and Chief Strategist of the business and political risk consulting firm Perch Perspectives. Roger is the Macro Editor at financial media company Lykeion and the Managing Editor of Real Vision Creative Studios. Together they provide a powerhouse of insights into the machinations of geopolitics and macroeconomics. Key in this conversation are Jacob’s and Roger’s insights into China and whether China has the capacity to influence global growth going forward. In our conversation we explore the possibility and probability of deglobalization and what that might mean. In addition Roger and Jacob turn the spotlight on Latin America and the potential it holds given the current geopolitical and macroeconomic constraints the world is facing. Join us in this deep dive into what lies behind and beneath these pressing issues.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Roger on Twitter.

Follow Jacob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to Shapiro & Hirst

09:22 - Where lies the uncertainty?

11:01 - The ultimate impact on markets

15:32 - Reflecting on Peter Zeihan's work

25:17 - Can we rely on Chinese data?

34:34 - The problems with Chinese real-estate

36:56 - Xi Jinpings geopolitical ambitions

40:35 - Can China still influence global growth?

46:51 - The relationship between Russia and China

48:50 - Are we heading towards deglobalization?

54:19 - A disruption in global commodities

01:04:49 - A bad outlook for equities?

01:07:57 - Are we forgetting Latin America?

01:10:08 - A shift in equities?

01:12:18 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU131: How CTAs manage their Cash ft. Mike Kastner, Principle & Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management

13 februari 2023 | 48 min

Today, we are joined by Mike Kastner, Principle and Co-Founder at Halyard Asset Management, for a conversation on how they use fixed income instruments to manage the cash of many CTA portfolios. We discuss how managers have evolved in terms of the way they manage cash, how Halyard Asset Management construct a portfolio from a liquidity point of view and the current state of liquidity, how they approach credit rating and why they avoid buying paper from certain banks. We also unpack what they think the sweet spot for foreign exchange hedging is and how they approach risk management, why Kastner does not believe we are approaching a recession and that there is a likely chance of a significant fall in the long bond price, as well as what Kastner believes will happen in the housing market and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Read more about Halyard Asset Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:40 - Introduction to Halyard Asset Management

04:12 - History of Cash Management

07:16 - What happened with money market funds?

09:34 - Has the Cash Management space changed?

11:02 - Cash Management philosophy

12:23 - A liquid portfolio

17:39 - Drawing the safety line

19:25 - Considering ESGs

21:11 - Managing cash in different currencies

22:41 - Balancing the mandates

23:52 - Managing risk

25:44 - Thinking about expected returns

27:05 - The evolution of fees

29:40 - Lessons learned

31:27 - How does Kastner see the world?

33:22 - Where are we heading?

37:00 - The global perspective

39:05 - The debt issue

41:30 - Why Cash Management is not Easy

43:00 - Expectations for 2023

45:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI130: Trend Following in the Age of Disconnect ft. Mark Rzepczynski

12 februari 2023 | 79 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us at the end of another Fed driven week. We discuss the pros and cons of being a long term trend follower compared to a short term trend follower in terms of performance and Sharpe Ratio, and why you would want to apply the same rules to long and short sided trades, how to understand long and short term volatility, the advantages of being a systematic manager and the limits to how much AUM a manager can handle, how Rzepczynski will be focusing on change point detection in his next endevour and why it is important as a trend follower to think in terms of radical uncertainty or disequilibriums and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:20 - What happened this week?

11:01 - Individual Sharpe vs. portfolio Sharpe

18:59 - Industry performance update

19:56 - Q1, Pete: Same rules for longs and shorts - why?

32:25 - Q1 Follow-up: Change position right away or wait for first new trade entry?

36:09 - Q2, Callum: Question regarding TTU series with Ryan O'Grady

40:57 - Q3, Tim: Questions regarding link between Performance and AUM

50:21 - The problem with flat fees

55:06 - The idea of change point detection

01:00:18 - The age of disconnect

01:11:01 - The impact of disruptors

01:17:04 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU130: Trend Following Solutions ft. Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital

10 februari 2023 | 66 min

Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time to do its work. We continue with topics such as how trend following as a strategy has evolved over time and how they feel about the newest CTA replication products, their reasoning for being cautious about using machine learning and, why they chose not to dwell too much on fees, how they guide their clients when it comes to return expectations and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Aspect Capital

Episode Timestamps:

02:57 - Introduction to Aspect Capital

06:54 - Their Investment Philosophy

09:56 - Why does trend strategies work?

13:12 - A less uncertain period

15:44 - Too concerned about the sharpe?

20:38 - Which trends are most popular?

23:01 - Costumization - is there a limit?

28:58 - Staying diversified and improving models

34:33 - The research process

37:29 - A change in models?

40:15 - CTA Replication - good or bad idea?

46:01 - Their perspective on machine learning

49:33 - The risks of trend following

51:45 - Manipulated markets

53:04 - Their perspective on capacity and fees

56:26 - Setting expectations

59:05 - Simple vs. sophisticated

01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements

01:01:34 - Last words

01:04:01 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM33: Drilling into the Oil Market ft. Rory Johnston

8 februari 2023 | 67 min

Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his reflections on diverse market responses to geopolitical events around the world. Is there going to be a big energy demand from China going forward? What is it going to take to stabilize oil prices? How does inflation factor in? Join us on this fascinating exploration of the role oil plays, and the variables that can change the trajectory of the energy market.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Rory on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - Introduction to Rory Johnston and Commodity Context

07:15 - Are people over-fixated on data?

09:04 - Is Geopolitical analysis useless?

16:43 - Making assumptions

19:38 - The challenges with data

28:36 - Indicators of volatility

32:26 - Quantifying the fundamental value

37:02 - Having an edge in oil

45:27 - Understanding the CRT Report

49:17 - Oil price - a play on the dollar?

52:27 - An indicator for the state of the world

57:06 - How are oil and natural gas related?

01:00:58 - Fertilizer's impact on natural gas

01:02:43 - The research perspective

01:04:32 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU129: Trend Following Nordic Style ft. Svante Bergström, CEO & Founding Partner of LYNX Asset Management

6 februari 2023 | 67 min

Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models and machine learning to profit in 2022, their process of finding new models and replacing the ones that do not work and why they are sceptical about the returns from CTA replication. We also discuss the number of markets they prefer to trade, how they manage risk and what you should pay attention to when evaluating managers, their approach to capacity and fees and their process of finding new talent in the industry, how they implement ESGs in their work and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about LYNX

Episode Timestamps:

02:18 - Introduction to LYNX

04:11 - How did they settle on trend following?

09:08 - A painful ride?

11:09 - Too focused on sharpe?

14:04 - What stood out in 2022?

16:17 - The dual mandate

18:10 - The benefits of diversifying strategies

20:08 - Why machine learning?

24:31 - The flipside of diversifying strategies

28:32 - The process of replacing models

31:36 - Their view on CTA replication

35:54 - Execution within LYNX

38:15 - The right number of markets

41:10 - How they manage risk

46:02 - What makes a good manager?

51:11 - The issue with capacity

54:29 - Finding and hiring new talent

59:41 - Is Liquidity on a downfall?

01:01:51 - Managing cash

01:02:48 - Trend following disagreements

01:04:04 - Expectations for 2023

01:05:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI229: Managed Futures - The Ultimate Diversification Tool? ft. Andrew Beer

5 februari 2023 | 68 min

Today, Andrew Beer returns to the podcast for a conversation on Trend Following & Managed Futures more broadly, where we reflect on what happened in the first month of 2023 and the outlook for rest of the year. We also discuss why many investors started to panic in the last half of 2022 and why Managed Futures is such a powerful "companion" strategy, the recent change of sentiment to stocks and bonds and why we should sometimes just trust the evidence. We round things off with a deep dive into various ways to achieve optimal diversification and the value of trend following, why it is important to be tactical and put aside the idea of buying the dip, how narrative plays such a big role in the trend following space and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 - Reflecting on the month of January

06:36 - Performance of trend following this year so far

14:43 - Industry performance update

15:43 - Managed futures - the ultimate diversifier?

21:24 - Will stocks and bonds continue to move in tandem?

25:46 - Predictable diversification benefits

29:28 - The advantages of managers

41:40 - Why should managed futures work?

48:18 - Buy the dip?

54:31 - Sticking to the data

01:01:13 - Gunslingers in the ETF space

01:05:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU128: Trend Following for Life ft. Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management

3 februari 2023 | 69 min

Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and where they see the weaknesses of trend following strategies, why they choose to look at the overall portfolio when managing the risk and why they think portfolio replication can be problematic. We also discuss how they manage risk and why they prefer to reside in the medium to long term when it comes to trend following, how they approach capacity and fees and why they choose to trade using a human touch rather than automated execution, what returns are achievable from trend following and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about DUNN Capital Management

Episode Timestamps:

02:31 - Introduction to DUNN Capital Management

05:02 - Why Trend Following?

07:35 - What differentiates DUNN Capital Management?

12:06 - Hitting the right balance

14:34 - Reflecting on the performance in 2022

18:43 - The speed of systems

22:28 - Their research process

25:36 - Trading futures and determining trends

28:08 - Weaknesses of trend following

29:12 - From individual markets to portfolios

31:23 - What is the right number of markets?

34:24 - The risk of CTA replication

35:57 - Dynamic vs. static position sizing

39:38 - Primary focus when managing risk

41:29 - What is the right lookback period?

43:10 - Their approach to capacity and fees

47:15 - Is the HQ Location an issue?

48:53 - Monitoring trades

53:09 - The role of trend in larger portfolios

59:02 - The cash management process

01:03:44 - Questions to ask a manager as an allocator

01:05:55 - Expectations for 2023

01:07:46 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL13: A Biography of the Dollar ft. Perry Mehrling

1 februari 2023 | 70 min

Today, Perry Mehrling, Economist and internationally recognized expert on our monetary system, joins us to talk about his new book: “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System”. Perry’s book is a “biography of the dollar” told through the life “Charlie” Kindleberger, an economist who helped craft the Marshall Plan and spent his life studying and writing about the best way to organize international money. We discuss why Charlie thought the world needs a “key currency” and how the Fed - reluctantly and slowly - grew to support the dollar as it took on that role. Perry explains why the dollar system has proved so resilient. We finish the talk with an examination of two of the Fed’s most important tools - QE and swap lines and discuss why one supports the system while the other might undermine it.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Perry on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:27 - Introduction to Perry Mehrling and Charles Kindleberger

10:03 - What is the Sterling System?

15:01 - Establishing a central bank

23:35 - The impact of World War 2

31:32 - What does it take to be a key currency country?

48:53 - Fed - From lender to dealer

54:49 - Are swap lines structured the right way?

01:01:14 - War in Ukraine - what would Charlie have thought?

01:04:25 - Book recommendations

01:07:43 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU127: Trend Following L.A. Style ft. Ryan O' Grady, Co-Founder & CEO at ROW Asset Management

30 januari 2023 | 74 min

Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We also discuss what the pros and cons of replication are and how their work sets them apart from other trend followers, how they manage risk and mitigate drawdowns, how they succeed to run a multi asset portfolio and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Row Asset Management

Episode Timestamps:

02:23 - Introduction to ROW Asset Management

05:18 - Their investment philosophy and objective

11:43 - Should we worry about our sharpe?

16:31 - What to expect from pure trend

20:04 - Their research process

24:00 - Making changes to the system

26:40 - Their thoughts on machine learning

28:53 - New areas for research

30:52 - How many markets should you trade?

35:18 - Their thoughts on replication

38:49 - The risk of replication

42:02 - Managing drawdowns

45:16 - How they use trend following

46:46 - Managing risk in their portfolio

50:21 - Talking fees and capacity

01:00:17 - Running a multi asset portfolio

01:05:24 - Disagreements in trend following

01:07:54 - Expectations for 2023

01:11:53 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI228: Are Markets Priced for Perfection? ft. Alan Dunne

29 januari 2023 | 61 min

Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current macro environment and how it impact markets. We discuss how the apparent positivity in the markets might get derailed by the lack of cooperation from policy makers and how a lurking uncertainty is threatening the calmness of the markets, the performance of the CTA industry, which markets are the best to trade and how the speed of your trend system affects the outcome, how CTAs capitalize on people’s behavioural biases and what the conversations in the new TTU mini series have taught us so far. We also discuss the advantages of being a multi manager and whether managers should give the investors multiple choices or do the choosing themselves and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - The current macro picture

15:56 - Trend following update

18:04 - Current markets and asset allocation

28:07 - Papers on the CTA industry

38:15 - Fast vs. slow trend systems

42:32 - Reflecting on the TTU CTA mini series

49:12 - The multi-manager perspective

56:42 - Feedback on the TTU CTA Mini series

59:07 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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TTU126: Trend Following + Something ft. Kevin Cole, CEO & CIO at Campbell & Co.

27 januari 2023 | 74 min

Today, we are joined by Kevin Cole, CEO and CIO at Campbell & Co, for a conversation on their approach to using trend following in their trading, with a focus on absolute return. We discuss their investment philosophy and the evolution of their expanded trading strategy, how they moved beyond pure trend using equities and how they use a multi-strat approach to stay diversified. We also discuss how they feel about being replicated and how they use their research process to keep an edge over their competitors, how they capture the underlying momentum factors of trend and how they implement ESG in their trading strategy. Lastly, we discuss how they approach risk management and position sizing, their view on capacity and fees in the industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Campbell

Episode Timestamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Campbell & Co

03:53 - Their investment philosophy

06:07 - The objectives of their work

08:37 - Moving beyond trend following

12:27 - Their approach to trading equities

15:11 - Staying diversified

19:59 - Using constraints

21:54 - Thoughts on replication

26:45 - What is a good research process?

31:46 - Balancing the adaptability

36:23 - Trading more markets = better?

41:47 - Dealing with ESGs

47:02 - Their risk management process

51:46 - Being discrete

56:19 - Static or dynamic position size?

59:35 - Capacity in the industry

01:04:27 - Advice on return expectations

01:07:11 - Vanilla vs. sophisticated trend follower

01:09:29 - Managing cash

01:11:07 - What do you disagree with the most?

01:12:07 - Expectations for 2023

01:12:57 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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IL12: How to Invest ft. David Rubenstein

25 januari 2023 | 58 min

Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part of society. We also discuss how great results require great risk and how becoming a successful investor requires a balance between luck, skill and risk, how to evaluate successful firms like Carlyle Group and the role philanthropists play in society, the economic inequality in America and why taxing the wealth is not a way to solve it, why Rubenstein believes ESGs are here to stay and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow David on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Introduction to David Rubinstein

07:02 - From lawyer to investor

11:48 - What inspired the book?

16:32 - Is capitalism going out of fashion?

18:43 - The path to becoming an investor

25:11 - Diversification vs concentration

30:07 - The bigger the better?

35:38 - Reasons to be cautious?

37:25 - Can you rely on philanthropists?

44:58 - Charity - a problem solver?

51:44 - Rubensteins approach to reading

54:49 - Baseball jargon

55:43 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU125: Trend Following vs Short Term ft. Michael Pomada, President & CEO at Crabel Capital Management

23 januari 2023 | 82 min

Today, we are joined by President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, Michael Pomada, for a talk on their approach to trend following as well as short-term strategies. We discuss the trading philosophy behind Crabel Capital Management and why they choose to primarily be long vol, what role the Sharpe Ratio plays in their trading strategy and how they use data in their research process to understand markets, how being de-siloed helped them to make 2022 their best year in terms of research and how they create the most optimal work environment and culture for their team. How they utilize machine learning in their work and why they spend tens of millions of dollars on execution infra-structure, why they believe replication is like drugs and medication and why ESGs are important for them as a firm, how they manage drawdown control and mitigate risk. Lastly, we discuss why Pomada has found peace with fees going down and why being innovative is key in maintaining a solid income, why they are not concern about competition in the industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Crabel Capital Management

Episode Timestamps:

02:20 - Introduction to Crabel Capital Management

03:41 - The philosophy behind their work

08:46 - Their trading objectives

11:21 - Too concerned about the sharpe?

14:28 - Better alternatives to sharpe?

16:43 - Unearthing the anomalies

22:49 - Creating the perfect environment

26:34 - Machine Learning - a magical unicorn?

31:17 - Getting the execution right

35:01 - The feeling of being replicated

39:28 - Their approach to trading markets

42:55 - The ESGs?

47:43 - Managing risk

58:42 - Are fees on the rise?

01:03:44 - Getting the execution right

01:07:22 - The role of their product

01:10:51 - Which bucket do they belong to?

01:12:18 - Crazy times for liquidity

01:16:24 - Being controversial

01:20:14 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard Brennan

21 januari 2023 | 85 min

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why everything ultimately moves towards an equilibrium condition where everything stops and how it can be corrected through math, the importance of understanding how a system operates before applying math and that everything is process driven, how Richard thinks of risk in an uncertain world and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:34 - Thoughts on new mini series

09:46 - Battleship still floating?

11:56 - Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting

18:12 - Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process

31:27 - Uncertainty rather than certainty

49:38 - Why not focus on other trends?

56:44 - Outliers - features of liquid markets?

01:03:28 - Everything is a process

01:12:21 - Managing risk in an uncertain world

01:21:24 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU124: Trend Following with a Twist ft. Harold de Boer, Managing Director at Transtrend

20 januari 2023 | 74 min

Today, we are joined by Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend, for a conversation on their unique approach to trend following. We discuss the investment philosophy at Transtrend and what makes them stand out against other investors, why markets trend and what history can teach us about trend following, how the war in Ukraine impacts markets and how Transtrend stays diversified. We also discuss why Transtrend has not deviated from trend and the importance of differentiating yourself, why de Boer believes computers have been become a disadvantage and why de Boer does not think trading more markets is always better. Lastly, we discuss Transtrend’s approach to pricing their work and why they think ESG’s have become a “strange thing”, what de Boer is most excited for in 2023 and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Transtrend

Episode Timestamps:

02:27 - Introduction to Transtrend

03:47 - The investment philosophy

17:55 - Being unconventional

21:27 - Pure trend following vs. Trend following plus

29:25 - What is the investment objective?

32:53 - Developing and evaluating systems

37:34 - Human + computer = better than computer?

40:34 - Weaknesses of CTA replication strategies

47:17 - Is trading more markets better?

51:54 - Managing risk and liquidity concerns

56:06 - Diversification strategies and fees

01:00:37 - The challenges of ESGs

01:05:43 - Taking the asset allocator perspective

01:08:49 - Is equity exposure better?

01:10:31 - What do you disagree with the most?

01:11:08 - Expectations for 2023

01:12:12 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM32: Commodity Super Cycle in Full Force ft. Jeff Currie

18 januari 2023 | 63 min

In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC has risen to power again and what drives the oil prices, why we might run out of metals in the near future, why boycotting Russian oil is a climate paradox and what might be the solution to the energy crisis, how the underinvestment in carbon creates a ripple effect in multiple other sectors, why Currie believes renewable energy might not be the right solution to the energy crisis, how to profit from the commodity super cycle and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:35 - Introduction to Jeff Currie

04:18 - A new kind of inflation?

08:41 - Policy and what drives inflation

15:41 - The outlook for the demand side

22:45 - Short term position and the commodity space

28:11: - Disruptions in infrastructure

31:17 - The rise of OPEC

33:32 - Status on the strategic oil reserve

34:20 - Volatility in oil

39:45 - Are we running out of metal?

44:12 - The situation with gas

48:15 - What is the solution?

50:12 - Problems with agriculture

53:54 - Dealing with global warming

59:44 - Profiting from the commodity super cycle

01:01:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU123: Trend Following Master Class ft. Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL

16 januari 2023 | 67 min

In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining "crisis alpha". We also discuss Korgaonkar’s view on CTA replication and their process of improving their trend following system and models, why having a good execution system is important for enabling different sources of alpha and why they use dynamic position sizing to maximize their returns, how they overcome periods of drawdowns and how you price your work as a CTA, how much you should allocate to trend and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Man AHL

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:22 - Introduction to Man AHL

03:45 - Their trading strategy

06:18 - Why does trend following work?

10:11 - A unique type of trend following?

15:46 - A trade-off in the objectives

19:14 - The effect of adding carry

21:13 - Picking from the strategy menu?

22:46 - Too much focus on Sharpe?

24:33 - Replication - yay or nay?

29:54 - Have the models become outdated?

35:55 - The importance of execution

39:06 - Dynamic vs static position sizing

44:24 - Overcoming drawdowns

48:42 - Discussion on capacity and fees

52:18 - How to think about expected returns

57:09 - Can you trend follow trend following?

58:50 - Managing the cash

01:00:21 - Disagreements in trend following

01:02:03 - Questions to ask as an allocator

01:03:49 - Expectations for 2023

01:05:51 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI226: Trend Following - the Do's & the Dont's ft. Rob Carver

15 januari 2023 | 67 min

Today, Rob Carver returns to the show for the first weekly trend following conversation in 2023, where we discuss the unusual situation with the vol market and how to use stops and moving average crossovers when entering and exiting trades, what it takes to run a trend following portfolio in 2023 and why it is not for everyone, how Kurtosis and skew is used in managed futures, Rob's process of picking parameters and why using a mixture parameter speed is the most optimal approach. We also discuss the U.S. debt ceiling and why it can become a potential problem, speed in trend following and why you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, how much math you need to work in the financial markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - What happened since we last spoke?

09:58 - Industry performance update

12:49 - A1, Andrew: Use stop or wait for crossover?

18:41 - Q2, Joseph: Is running your own trend following portfolio reasonable in 2023?

22:58 - Q3, Bart: The importance of Kurtosis

26:53 - Q4, Ross: How to pick parameters?

41:22 - Defending optimization

43:32 - The U.S Debt ceiling

48:05 - The need for speed in trend following

56:16 - Optimal trend following with transaction cost

59:05 - How much Math is needed to be a Trend Follower?

01:04:12 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL11: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise ft. Susan Shirk

11 januari 2023 | 63 min

Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics, joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an over compliance and bandwagoning. We also discuss how China’s strict Covid19 policies has led to nationwide protests and major frustration in the population, how China derailed from its peaceful rise, how they may be able to get back on track and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Susan on Twitter & read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:31 - Introduction to Susan and her work

08:07 - What is the 21st Century China Center?

10:37 - Why did Susan write the book?

16:27 - How did the overreach begin?

24:58 - Purging a corrupt system

31:36 - Examples of derailed politics

37:25 - Dealing with Covid19 protests

45:02 - From peaceful to totalitarian

48:18 - Getting back to a peaceful rise

55:34 - Fear of going to back to China?

01:00:14 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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TTU122: New Amazing CTA & Managed Futures Series

7 januari 2023 | 37 min

Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will also take a look into 2023 and discuss our expectations for the year and what we are most excited for in the mini series.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:52 - Setting the stage

03:53 - The idea behind the miniseries

07:48 - What we hope to achieve

11:13 - What are our expectations?

14:43 - The topics that we will discuss

29:25 - When will they be published?

30:34 - What are we most excited for?

35:58 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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ALO13: Building Resilient Portfolios with Alternatives ft. Dylan Grice

4 januari 2023 | 68 min

Today, we are joined by Dylan Grice, Co-Founder at Calderwood Capital, for a conversation on how he thinks about portfolio construction through focusing on alternative and niche investments. We discuss how Dylan and his team work and why they shy away from trying to predict the future, how they analyse the current economic situation and why he thinks what happens to inflation and interest rates the next few years is insignificant. We also discuss how they manage the risk of the strategies they are working with and how they build a solid return profile, approach manager selection, how you can avoid being seduced by managers through narratives and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Dylan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:17 - Introduction to Dylan Grice

08:37 - How does Calderwood Capital work?

20:47 - Macro, micro or mixing both?

25:54 - Signs of stress in the markets?

32:37 - Grice’s perspective on inflation and interest rates

36:19 - How do they construct their portfolios?

43:32 - The art of managing risk

48:45 - Building an all weather return profile

54:28 - Assessing the managers

01:01:26 - When things go wrong

01:03:16 - Advice for people working in similar fields

01:05:52 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI225: 2023...Another Great Year for Trend Following? (TTU Group Part 2)

30 december 2022 | 67 min

Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquidity is about to break, the outlook for 2023 and what the year might hold for trend followers and the economy, why you should expect the unexpected and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:19 - Diversification in trend following

17:48 - The impact of fluctuating interest rates

30:58 - Using AI in trading

41:46 - A discussion on liquidity

53:54 - A glimpse into 2023

01:05:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1)

24 december 2022 | 73 min

Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have to be open to imagine the unimaginable, what the future might hold for the Crypto space and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:14 - Q1, Zach: Have we seen the end of the carry regime? And what are the indicators?

14:16 - The perfect year for trend following?

25:52 - The wrong kind of volatility?

31:04 - Trend vs. Tail Hedge

43:04 - What is happening with volatility?

50:38 - What did we learn from the year 2022?

01:00:40 - The future of Crypto

01:11:37 - Coming up next week

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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GM31: The Art of Volatility Investing ft. Dave Dredge

21 december 2022 | 80 min

Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses asymmetry to stay prepared for the future and the pointlessness of forecasting, how constructing an investment portfolio is like a football match and how Dave’s racing car analogy can help you become a better investor, cheap vs. expensive volatility and the importance of convexity, what the future might hold for volatility and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dave on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:00 - About Dave and his work

06:04 - Are big pension funds failing?

11:21 - A fragile world

19:54 - How Dave thinks about liquidity

25:20 - What does cheap actually mean?

34:23 - What might be next for volatility

41:43 - The next Korean ship builder?

46:19 - Is forecasting pointless?

51:00 - Improve your convexity = improve your life

59:37 - What is cheap today?

01:13:14 - Time for some outrageous predictions

01:18:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI223: 2022 an unusual year for Volatility ft. Cem Karsan

17 december 2022 | 62 min

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to reflect on a week with heavy Fed action and some of the myths surrounding the Fed. We discuss how the behaviour of the Fed impacts inflation and the importance of understanding seasonality, why the discussion between recession and no recession makes little sense and the what direction the markets are heading. We also discuss Cem’s approach to trading the current volatility compression and why 44% of the S&P options volume is in 0 DTE, the key takeaways from the year that has passed and the most surprising events of the year, how the world has changed over the years and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:57 - What happened this week?

11:34 - An interesting period for equities

22:33 - Industry performance update

24:39 - Does recession or no-recession even matter?

33:44 - How and when to short the S&P

39:10 - The Oil Put...

45:08 - Why has Gold disappointed?

47:47 - The rise of the 0DTE options

53:00 - Takeaways from 2022

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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IL10: Chip War (FT's Best Business Book 2022) ft. Chris Miller

14 december 2022 | 56 min

Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” - which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award. We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that dominate the industry, the problems that the monopolistic situation causes but also the opportunities that it has created for technology. We also discuss the concerns that the technology has created in terms of espionage and digital warfare, why a deep integration between telecom systems might be a solution to the potential conflicts that the technology can cause, what might be able to disrupt the industry and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Chris on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:37 - Introduction to Chris and his work

06:17 - About his research process

09:50 - Why are semiconductor chips so important?

14:39 - How did we end here?

18:24 - About ASML and their role

26:02 - How and why was TSMC founded?

37:44 - The battle between China and U.S.

47:47 - A potential for conflict

51:20 - Disruption ahead?

54:16 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI222: Trend Following vs Tail Hedging to Protect Your Portfolio ft. Rob Carver

10 december 2022 | 67 min

Today, Rob Carver joins us for conversation on Trend Following with something for the both the individual everyday investor and the trend following nerds. We also catch up on this week's events which included news of the biggest one-week outflow of US Equity Mutual & ETF funds since April 2021 and the news that Blackstone will be limiting investor redemption's in one of their Real Estate funds. We discuss how Rob uses dynamic market selection to diversify his portfolio and how he plans out his trading year when it comes to deep dive analysis, how he implements and tests his continuous trend systems and if he believes in using tail protection strategies to manage risk. We also discuss how Rob implement his carry strategy, portfolio optimization and momentum factor investing, what the special Year-End Group episodes will bring and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:39 - What happened this week?

20:22 - Industry performance update

22:25 - Q1, Elie: Can you run a continous system without daily vol targeting? Can you calculate signal scaling with in-sample data? More info on the mean reversion system with a high sharpe?

34:42 - Q2, Matthijs: How does Rob think about protecting/diversifying his portfolio with tail protection strategies?

42:54 - Q3, Richard: Has Rob considered conditioning his carry forecasts based on asset class? Should I account for using the spread of nearest contract to nearest plus when calculating the raw carry forecast?

49:44 - AQR Paper on Portfolio Optimization

54:26 - Article from Alpha Architect on momentum...30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper

01:00:56 - What is coming up in the special Year-End Group Episodes?

01:05:43 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM30: The Era of Weather Volatility ft. Shawn Hackett

7 december 2022 | 71 min

Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting crop yields. We also discuss why Hackett view the value of commodities the same way he view the value of stocks and why being aware of where we are in the climate and economic cycles is critical, why long term planning is a key factor in managing risk, how to approach agriculture and commodities in general in your investment strategy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Shawn on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:07 - The state of agriculture

10:10 - How Sunspots are affecting the earth?

15:22 - What drives the climate?

19:00 - Why are the winds over the Pacific so significant?

21:18 - The World is moving into a new phase

27:39 - Predicting the weather?

36:10 - Positioning risk and classification

44:56 - The impact of currencies

49:08 - Weather Volatility - good or bad?

50:41 - Assisting the farmers

55:15 - Investing in agriculture

01:01:36 - Great summary from Hackett

01:08:33 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI221: Will 2023 be another Trend Following Year? ft. Alan Dunne

3 december 2022 | 71 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to reflect on the month of November and take a peek into 2023. We discuss the equity rally and what it means for the economy, both currently and historically, the cycle of bear markets and why the current period has been unusual. We also discuss the role of diversified managed futures, why short term traders are interesting in that context and how it compares to trend following, the expectations for 2023 and what environment we are heading into, the issues with public and private pension funds and what the future might hold, why having an active and adaptive strategy is becoming ever so more crucial and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:53 - Highlights from the week

10:30 - Industry performance update

17:41 - The equity (bear market) rally

31:25 - The impact of the inflation target

38:49 - Why are short term traders interesting?

49:24 - Looking into the crystal ball

01:00:53 - The end of an era

01:04:53 - How often do you need to rebalance?

01:07:55 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

ALO12: How to Invest like a Private Bank ft. Shannon Saccocia

30 november 2022 | 69 min

Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of going back to a low growth environment. We also discuss why managed futures is now worth considering, what defines a good team of managers and how to deal with behavioural bias in manager selection, where the IRA industry is heading and how it affects clients, advice to aspiring CIOs and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Shannon on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:15 - Introduction to Shannon and her work

10:37 - A change in behaviour?

19:12 - Moving beyond the three buckets

26:20 - A rough year

33:01 - Staying diversified

40:03 - Are Managed Futures becoming viable for Private Banks...again?

44:05 - Manager selection vs. asset allocation

50:26 - Dealing with behavioural bias

57:06 - Discussing the IRA industry

01:03:33 - Advice to aspiring CIOs

01:06:56 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI220: Is It Too Late for Trend Following? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

27 november 2022 | 69 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, following the release of the minutes from the FED’s Open Market Committee in a week of thin liquidity. We discuss whether trend followers can make money going forward after a great year and if it is "too late" to allocate to trend following, the historical perspective of trend following and what we can expect going forward based on the latest analysis from AQR, and how the fast flow of information impacts trend following. We also discuss the importance of knowing when to quit and embezzlement in the crypto space, why trust is a key factor of trend following and why you should find out where liquidity is coming from. We finish discussing why it is important to be aware of how markets move through cycles, what it means if we are heading into a more deglobalized world and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:21 - What happened this week?

06:24 - Industry performance update

09:19 - Is it too late for trend following?

24:47 - The impact of fast information

30:59 - The human element of policy

38:36 - Quit vs. Grit

42:16 - Diving into the crypto world

50:50 - Mind your liquidity

56:17 - Periods, ages and regimes

59:40 - The end of Globalization & what this means?

01:03:12 - Being a data detective

01:06:01 - Final thoughts

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM29: What if the World isn't Ending? ft. Marko Papic

23 november 2022 | 79 min

Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the importance of understanding your biases and weaknesses. We also discuss political analysis and how Papic uses Bayesian analysis, why he believes tech is going to underperform massively and why flirting with another power can produce policy results, why Papic is hedging against the dollar, why he believes the war in Ukraine will enter stasis and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Marko on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:56 - Introduction to Marco Papic

10:35 - Is geopolitical analysis even valid?

14:23 - Go to the insiders if you want geopolitical analysis?

21:04 - How can geopolitical analysis be exploited like investment constraints?

25:42 - What actually causes recessions?

32:33 - Using constraints based analysis

37:15 - What is the median voter theory?

40:33 - Are median voters controlled by media?

45:24 - The role of Bayesian analysis

53:02 - Papic’s take on spread trades

59:13 - Is the dollar overvalued?

01:03:46 - Predicting an invasion

01:09:20 - A strengthening of the Baltic states

01:17:08 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI219: The Impact of Secular Inflation ft. Cem Karsan

19 november 2022 | 70 min

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Volatility & Trend Following, where we discuss the inverted yield curve and how to protect yourself against secular inflation, how Cem foresee the coming period in terms of Opex, Delta hedging, Vanna etc. and the potential bottom of the markets. We also discuss the importance of the outcome of the U.S election and positive CPI numbers and how it affects volatility, why short term volatility might increase and longer term might compress and how it has changed the way Cem trade. Finally we dive into how the ultra low skew has created a dangerous situation for the economy and when the situation might turn back to normal, how inflation affects risk premia and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:52 - What happened this week?

07:22 - Q1, Dave: What’s up with the inverted yield curve?

11:24 - Q2, Eron Musk: Cem’s opinion on hedge fund redemption dynamics?

14:21 - Q3, John: Cem’s forecast for the next 4 weeks (Dec. opex)?

16:25 - Q4, JZone: Crude put vs recession? Is the 20d sma and standard deviation all that matter for TF? Probability of right tail risk that China plays ball? National interests vs. economic prosperity

18:12 - Q5, The Slaughter79: Forecast for Opex-deltahedging-gamma-vanna-charm stuff?

18:39 - Q6, Spek: What’s the SP500 potential bottom?

22:47 - The U.S election and positive CPI numbers

30:11 - Asset classes in secular inflation

38:15 - Change in volatility = change in trading strategy?

46:51 - The impact of low skew

57:30 - When are we coming back to normal?

01:02:05 - Liquidity and volatility in relation to bonds

01:08:35 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM28: Draught, Deflation, Default & Global Depression ft. Simon Hunt

16 november 2022 | 48 min

Today, we are joined by Simon Hunt, who has decades of experience in the copper industry, for a conversation on the state of the global macro environment, both currently and in the years to come. We discuss climate change and the extreme implications it will have on our lives, how the current state of war will impact the economy and how we are on a path to very high inflation and interest rates. We also discuss why Hunt do not believe we are in a commodity super cycle and how he predicts the commodity market will perform the coming years, what keeps Hunt up at night and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Simon.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:58 - Introduction to Simon Hunt

06:30 - The process of Hunt’s work

13:12 - Hunt’s global macro view

20:52 - Are we approaching a 3rd World War?

27:56 - What will happen to interest rates?

29:43 - What about equities?

33:22 - Is it all about to crash?

34:33 - A commodity super cycle?

41:13 - The relationship between the different currencies

43:21 - How Hunt currently invest

45:12 - What keeps Hunt up at night?

46:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI218: Trend Following to the Rescue ft. Richard Brennan

12 november 2022 | 82 min

Richard Brennan joins us for a very important conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the FTX crypto collapse and CPI melt-up. We discuss how the outlook of inflation is changing and how it impacts trends, how the concept of "pants size" relates to different lookback periods as well as stops and the importance of position sizing, the difference between different position sizing schemes and how to best utilize them. We also discuss the trading opportunities that the uncertainty of the current environment brings and how trend following is part of it, what drive trends and why trend following is an essential tool in diversifying your portfolio, how uncertainty in the markets causes a shift in trader behaviour and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:26 - What happened this week?

11:32 - Industry performance update

15:41 - Q1, Daniel: Tight or loose pants for different lookback periods

22:52 - Q2, Henrik: Trade-offs between different position sizing schemes

34:51 - Trading opportunities that uncertainty brings

48:02 - Why is trend following so great in times of uncertainty?

01:17:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU121: Trend Following... from Optional to Essential ft. Nick Baltas

9 november 2022 | 73 min

Today, Niels and Rob are joined by Nick Baltas, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on systematic investment strategies. We discuss the difference between a number of systematic trading strategies and the pros and cons of each, how crowding impacts systematic investing and how the narrative created by media affects the systematic investment space, the capacity constraints for CTAs and the impact of costs. We also discuss how big an impact the trend following community has on the markets and the strength and weaknesses of different alternative markets, selective hedging and how skew can be used as a predictor of future returns. Lastly, we discuss the challenging environment of 2022 and why Trend is performing so well this year, why Trend Following is becoming an essential part of every portfolio and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:16 - Introduction to Nick Baltas

05:59 - Baltas’ findings from comparing different systematic trading strategies

12:10 - Is the CTA industry too small to have an impact?

16:44 - Blame it on the trend following people

21:42 - Baltas’ research on capacity

30:03 - The impact of trend

37:54 - Pros and cons between different alternative markets

46:10 - Using skew in your strategy

52:57 - Nick's article in Financial Times

01:05:47 - Is Trend Following becoming Essential for all investors?

01:11:55 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Why Blame Risk-Parity & CTAs

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI217: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Allocation ft. Rob Carver

6 november 2022 | 69 min

Today, Rob Carver joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we also address this week's press conference held by Chairman Powell. We discuss the most optimal time period for trend following and how trend following differ from short-term trading. Then we explain the challenges in the UCITS space and how regulation affects these products, and why it is important to correctly distinguish asset classes and trading strategies from each other. We also discuss Rob’s approach to building mean reversion systems, the importance of analyzing trading costs and if it is worth learning how to trade futures, if you have a small account. Lastly, we discuss hedge fund replication and how Rob approaches it, and how to decide, how much you should allocate to Trend Following and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:58 - The biggest takeaways from the week?

11:36 - Industry performance update

13:27 - Status on Rob’s book

14:38 - Q1, Simon: What is the shortest term that Rob has looked at in trend following / momentum?

25:26 - Q2, Matthew: Relationship between UCITS funds's lower vol and Trend Following allocation? & Advice for small investors

32:20 - Comment, Mark: Confusing asset classes and trading strategies

39:22 - Q3, Toby: About building mean reversing systems

40:58 - Q4, Zach: How to approach holding periods and rolling costs?

43:22 - Q5, Anis: Cash equities vs. futures for trend following?

46.29 - Rob’s take on hedge fund replication

01:00:18 - Trend Following - How much is enough?

01:06:42 - Announcement

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM27: Central Banks were Warned about their Failed Policies ft. William White

2 november 2022 | 87 min

Today, we are joined by William White, Economist, Policy Advisor and Policy Maker who worked at the OECD, BIS & Bank of Canada, for a conversation on monetary policy and how it can negatively impact the economy. We discuss the unintended consequences of ultra-easy monetary policies, what has caused the current rebound in inflation and why we have gone from price stability to specific inflation rate targeting. We also discuss how Central Banks have handled inflation and supply shocks, both historically and recently, through monetary policies, how the current debt problem poses a threat to the economy and how it might be solved, the psychological perspective behind economical theory and why the financial conditions might have been too easy, financial and physical dominance and why they are not good for a non inflationary future. Lastly, we discuss the crisis from a European perspective, why the Dollar might not be stable in a future crisis and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow William White.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:12 - Introduction to William White

04:38 - Discussing White’s paper about monetary policies

10:32 - What has driven the inflation to this point?

23:05 - Inflation targeting - a great succes?

33:18 - Are we seeing the right policy?

40:33 - The debt problem

52:24 - Has central bank credibility been undermined?

58:18 - Seduced by their own billions

01:03:33 - A weaponization of the dollar

01:10:12 - What about Europe?

01:19:03 - White’s recommendations for aspiring economists

01:24:39 - Key takeaways from Niels

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: William White website

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI216: A New Era for Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne

29 oktober 2022 | 58 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful week, with Elon Musk taking over Twitter, the META stock taking a big hit and much more. We discuss how to approach asset allocation when adding trend following to your portfolio, how to find the optimal allocation and why Trend Following is often the most consistent part of the portfolio. We also discuss why it is important to think about forward looking risks and the idea that we are moving into a new era and regime, the unpredictability of the current inflation and why the rule-based strategies will have the upper hand as well as reflecting on next week’s episode with William White and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:58 - Summary of the week

07:51 - Industry performance update

15:38 - The optimal allocation

24:42 - Trend Following is the most consistent part of the Portfolio?

37:22 - Are we moving into a new era?

47:37 - Reflecting on the upcoming conversation with William White

52:29 - Unforeseen consequences of QE

55:40 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM26: Out with the FED Put & In with the OIL Put ft. Adam Rozencwajg

26 oktober 2022 | 52 min

Today, we have the pleasure of having Adam Rozencwajg back for another conversation on the global energy crisis, this time primarily focusing on the demand side of the crisis. We discuss oil reserves, OPEC and how disruptions in supplies impact the energy sector, why we are seeing a spike in demand for oil and how investors are changing their trading behaviour to adapt to the crisis, the impact of the rise of the emerging market middle class and the challenges of structural inflation. We also address how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the energy crisis and how some conspiracy theorists believe that all this conflict is tied together, how the energy crisis affects the American Mid-Term Election and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:06 - The highlights of the previous conversation on energy supply

13:02 - Adam’s perspective on the demand side

21:57 - Blame it on the inflation?

29:11 - The opportunities of a divided world

36:50 - Has demand actually decreased?

42:40 - What can go wrong in regards to the election?

51:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI215: Trend Following vs Volatility to Protect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

22 oktober 2022 | 63 min

Today, Cem Karsan joins us for our weekly conversation on Trend Following as well as Volatility, following yet another fast paced and eventful week. We discuss the challenges of being long volatility in the current environment and how under-performing equity stock market volatility is the new normal, the increased popularity of volatility strategies post 2018 and 2020 and different ways of knowing how the strategies may behave in an inflationary environment. We also discuss concerning liquidity conditions and what has caused the current situation, what investors should prioritize, in terms of allocation, to protect their portfolio, how the increase in strength of the U.S. Dollar affects the markets, how investors and pension funds act when inflation is sky rocketing and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:28 - What happened this week?

08:37 - Industry performance update

10:30 - Discussing an article from EQD

18:49 - Going into unknown territory

23:55 - Is liquidity becoming a problem?

35:26 - Volatility strategies vs. Trend Following

43:15 - The strength of the U.S. Dollar

51:26 - Alternative markets... could liquidity be drying out?

56:35 - What happens when inflation is so high?

01:01:48 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL09: The Money Revolution...Rethinking Economic Growth ft. Richard Duncan

19 oktober 2022 | 70 min

Richard Duncan, Economist and best-selling Author, joins us for a conversation on new ways of thinking about economic growth and prosperity. We discuss the historical aspects of growth and how credit creation and consumption generate economic growth, how foreign central banks create credit and how it has created an economic bubble in the American economy, how the U.S. economy has become addicted to credit growth and how the combination of a negative wealth effect and credit contraction poses a threat to the economy. We also the discuss the importance of the CHIPS and Science Act, how China could become the new superpower of the world and what the U.S. can do to prevent it, what a multi trillion dollar investment could mean for the American economy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Richard on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:29 - Introduction to Richard Duncan and his book

15:35 - Credit creation and consumption - a long term growth strategy?

22:54 - The problems with foreign central bank credit

31:45 - Reflecting on Alan Greenspan’s response

34:02 - Addicted to credit growth?

36:23 - How will the next 6-12 months look?

46:16 - Why is the CHIPS and Science Act so important?

56:21 - Should the FED stop pay interest on reserves?

01:03:22 - Is Duncan’s model of the economy being acknowledged?

01:07:14 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI214: Trend Following & CTA Replication ft. Andrew Beer

16 oktober 2022 | 110 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, Managing Member at Dynamic Beta Investments LLC, for a conversation on managed futures replication, ETFs and how they have found a way to get these essential strategies into more investor portfolios. We discuss how they do they have constructed the replication strategies and how Andrew have been able to gain enormous traction among advisers. We also touch on why Andrew does not include crypto and how the price of ETF is established. We take lots of questions and round our conversation off by discussing why managed futures have become an essential part of a portfolio and why Andrew believe that the demand for the strategy will continue to be strong for years to come and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:57 - This week in Trend Following?

06:38 - Industry performance update

08:34 - A bit of background to Andrew and his work

15:12 - The mechanics of their replication strategy

20:20 - Getting correlation right...is that enough?

34:25 - What about flat periods?

41:19 - What is the hardest part of what you do?

44:29 - Q1, Brian: Is there any tax advantages to your product?

46:01 - Q2, Jerry: What does your investor base look like?

53:19 - Are cryptocurrencies part of your universe?

57:16 - Q3, Jerry: How is the price of the ETF made up?

59:24 - Q4, Mike: Will capacity become an issue at a certain level of AUM like it does for traditional CTA strategies?

01:04:17 - Q5: Thoughts on CTAs being an essential part of a portfolio?

01:20:39 - Crisis Alpha

01:30:00 - Bringing value to investors

01:32:09 - Can you replicate a single manager?

01:44:14 - Will the current inflows mean that the CTA industry will reach capacity?

01:48:22 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL08: Why The Best Quitters Win ft. Annie Duke

11 oktober 2022 | 66 min

Today, Annie Duke, Author and former professional poker player, joins us for a conversation on learning under certainty and making better decisions in an uncertain world, based on her book, “Quit: The Power of Knowing When To Walk Away”. We discuss when is the right time to quit and what an expedition at Mount Everest can teach us about quitting, why there are no benefits of “learning the lesson the hard way” and why we tend to quit when it is too late, the importance of having kill criteria and splitting the decision. We also discuss why Duke recommends to keep your approach systematic and why setting goals is not always beneficial, the importance of finding a quitting coach and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Annie on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:24 - Introduction to Annie Duke and her book

07:14 - Key takeaways from her book

10:03 - Quitting at the right time

18:08 - Work smarter, not harder

23:04 - Are we overestimating ourselves?

29:57 - Setting rules and making decisions

35:27 - The benefits of splitting the decision

42:04 - Keep it systematic

49:10 - Pros and cons of setting goals

54:32 - What role does age play?

01:03:38 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI213: Trend Following Records are being set in 2022? ft. Richard Brennan

8 oktober 2022 | 74 min

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we reflect on what might be the strongest year for Trend Following on record. We discuss the robustness of Trend Following and how it allows investors to survive in times of uncertainty, how to handle stop-loss when calculating ATR and advice for entering and exiting trades. We also discuss trend identification and why you should avoid prescriptive visual methods, what we can learn from the human hearing when identifying trends and the importance of systematizing your decisions. We finish talking about how to extract and capture trends from your data and why it is important to make your system adaptable to change, why short term look-back periods might not be profitable, why nearly all traders and investors are trend followers and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:15 - What happened this week?

07:22 - Strongest year for Trend Following on record

14:37 - Industry performance update

18:12 - Q1, Josh: Tips for using ATR-based stop loss

29:18 - Methods for identifying trends

47:39 - Fishing for trends

53:37 - Short term vs. long term look-back periods

57:47 - Are all investors trend followers?

01:09:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM25: A realtime account of going through "hell" in the markets ft. Michael Gayed

5 oktober 2022 | 60 min

Today, we are joined by Michael Gayed, award winning Author and Portfolio Manager, for a real time account of what it's like to go through a challenging time in the markets. We discuss how Michael reinvented himself in 2009 and what he learned from the Great Recession, why Michael believes that Trend Following is not a long-vol strategy and how Gayed uses Lumber vs Gold as a market, Risk-on Risk-off indicator and how he uses treasuries as a tool to look forward in time. We also dig into why Gayed believe that higher rates is indicative of an increasing economic activity, why your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself, how buying used items can be a way to fight inflation and why the best investment opportunities happens on dislocations, the reason working harder does not necessarily generate better results and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:58 - Introduction to Michael Gayed

06:05 - What Michael learned from the Great Recession?

13:37 - Using the S&P instead of realized volatility

17:21 - Treasuries - A safe asset?

23:22 - A mixed picture in terms of risk

26:39 - Why Lumber instead of Copper?

30:13 - Is the (inversion of the) yield curve still valid?

31:53 - What about the asset class cycle?

34:34 - Higher rates = increased economic activity?

37:27 - Being persistent is key

39:34 - Will yields come in very sharply?

42:02 - The problem of the inflation narrative

45:31 - Allocating to ETFs and funds

48:48 - The sad side to the business

58:26 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI212: Trend Following in a Soft, Hard or No Landing ft. Alan Dunne

1 oktober 2022 | 58 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for our weekly dose of Trend Following where we reflect on an eventful month of September and a good year for trend, so far. We discuss what causes trends and why we are starting to see bigger moves in markets in recent years, whether the economy will have a Soft, Hard or No landing and what impact it will have on market performance, why we might still be in a commodity super cycle and why commodities are linked to volume unlike financial assets. We also discuss what Alan has learned from his recent road trip, the unintended consequences of a Liability Driven Investment Strategy in the pension fund system, why what we saw this week in the UK may be the start of a "death" cycle according to one pension fund consultant and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:52 - Summary of the week

08:34 - Industry performance update

09:54 - Reflecting on the month of September

14:38 - Why do we see trends in markets?

24:12 - Soft, Hard or No landing?

31:45 - Are we still in a commodity super cycle?

40:39 - Key takeaways from Alan’s road trip

48:46 - Article from Wall Street Journal on the UK Pension Fund debacle

56:27 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM24: The Real Cause of the Global Energy Crisis (Part 1) ft. Adam Rozencwajg

28 september 2022 | 67 min

Today, we welcome back Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, to help us understand the global energy crisis and how we ended up in this situation. We discuss the outlook of the coming months and why we are in the beginning of a commodity super cycle, how the supply and demand side of the economy functions and what role the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plays in a global energy crisis. We also discuss the different types of energy commodities, how convergence will affect the energy market and how to take advantage of it, the history of energy and the importance of ensuring a continuous abundance of efficient energy, how nuclear power can be a viable solution to the energy crisis and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:01 - Heading into the winter

10:42 - Flood the market with oil...a good idea?

14:50 - Understanding the supply side

29:30 - Venezuela - A hot spot?

33:21 - Is the SPR in trouble?

40:12 - The role of the different energy commodities

42:51 - Why convergence and how to take advantage of it

51:56 - The end of energy abundance

59:57 - Is nuclear the future?

01:05:18 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI211: A Trend Following Renaissance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

25 september 2022 | 66 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins after an intense week for central banks and global markets. We discuss how the current situation affects us as Trend Followers and the potential systemic risks in the futures exchange community in case of a global financial reset event and how we can use what we learned during the pandemic to tackle the issues of liquidity. We also discuss the difference between CTAs and Trend Followers and why the big investment banks should support their trend following clients...instead of trying to front-run our signals. We debate the global fixed income markets and how central banks create the foundation of a global recession, how what we are experiencing now in terms for trendiness in the markets may just be the beginning, why people who have a need for closure don’t do well with uncertainty and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:23 - Key events from this week?

11:15 - Industry performance update

16:25 - Q1, Matthew: The potential risks for trend funds in a global reset event?

25:18 - Research paper from UBS about CTAs and quant strategies

39:55 - Digging into the global fixed income markets

44:44 - Strong US Dollar and intervention in the Yen market

49:29 - Is the panic yet to come?

55:02 - Closure and dealing with uncertainty

01:03:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM23: The Wars of Capital ft. Michael Howell

21 september 2022 | 70 min

Today, we are joined by Michael Howell, Author and Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, for a conversation on how liquidity drives financial markets, based on his book, “Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity”. We address term premia and the impact it has on the economy, the off-shore market, how Central Banks have become the dominant players over the last decade and the capital war between China and the U.S. We also discuss what might happen if the global economy becomes divided into two worlds, where one is financed by the U.S. dollar and the other financed by the Chinese Yuan and the increasing networking risk and risk of crises within the financial system, the different types of liquidity and the recipe for creating a strong dollar and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Michael on Linkedin and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:51 - Introduction to Michael Howell and his work

07:38 - How much debt is there globally?

14:08 - Why is longer-term treasuries desirable?

16:08 - The off-shore market

19:56 - The capital war between China and the U.S.

41:37 - Is the financial system more fragile than we think?

50:10 - What if the 10-year bond yield blows out rapidly?

53:59 - What has happened with the offshore short-term market?

59:55 - The currency space and relative liquidity

01:02:31 - Comments on the current regime

01:08:18 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI210: Trend Following Q & A ft. Rob Carver

17 september 2022 | 83 min

Rob Carver returns after his extended holiday and kicks off by taking a nostalgic look back to 1985 as the British Pounds this week hit the lowest level since that year, to reflect on how markets tend to go in cycles. We also address dynamic optimisation, whether it contributes to make more markets "tradable" and the use of "non-tradable" markets, how Rob uses correlation and clustering for his classification approach and his strategy allocating to Trend Following. Additionally, we discuss techniques for Trend Following on single stocks and determining distances in a continuous MA crossover system, strategies to increase the capacity of a Trend Following program and running multiple different systems together, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Key takeaways from the week?

15:35 - What does the future hold for interest rates and inflation?

22:52 - Industry performance update

25:52 - Q1, Joakim: Does dynamic optimisation in itself make more markets tradable?

32:21 - Q1, Follow-up: About adding "non-tradable" markets

35:39 - Q2, Kristen: Futures markets and Rob’s classification approach

43:15 - Q3, Kristoffer: How to treat CTAs? And deciding between allocating to investment-grade corporate bonds or high yield bonds

49:46 - Q4, Elie: Book recommendations for relevant statistical concepts + why not build a trend following portfolio of single stocks which are optimized for low correlation?

57:15 - Q4, Follow-up: About determining distance in a continuous MA crossover system

01:02:11: - Q5, Douggie: What is the capacity of a strategy?

01:09:04 - Q6, Adam: About running multiple different systems together and splitting risk

01:13:17 - Q7, Michael: What’s behind Rob’s low trailing vol?

01:14:16 - Q8, “Toby” (Rob): Can you (Rob) explain your new book?

01:21:39 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL07: Equality Across the Globe can be Achieved ft. Oded Galor

14 september 2022 | 68 min

Today, we are joined by Oded Galor, Professor of Economics at Brown University, for a conversation on how we can explore and uncover new ways of thinking about the economy, based on his book “The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality”. We discuss inequality from a historical aspect and the roots of human behaviour, the Malthusian trap and how the industrial evolution has impacted humanity and how geography, culture and diversity is a key factor in achieving equality. We also address the costs and benefits of diversity within a society and how we need diversity to generate more growth and complex solutions, why China will be left behind due to a lack of cultural fluidity, the process of measuring diversity, how we can improve going forward and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Oded on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:00 - Introduction to Oded Galor

07:29 - Fundamental insights from Galor’s book

09:49 - From Stagnation to Growth

21:22 - Education and the labour force

30:24 - The impact of longer-term structural forces

40:38 - Can new cultures emerge?

43:31 - How does diversity impact a society?

50:08 - Is China falling behind?

52:09 - How diversity should be measured?

59:11 - Galor’s advice for moving forward

01:06:00 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI209: Trend Following...The Best Way to Surf the Markets ft. Richard Brennan

11 september 2022 | 67 min

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, where we discuss why the crisis we experience at the moment might be worse than previous crises, such as what was experienced in the 1970’s. We also discuss the turtle trading method and how ATR can be used for entering and exiting trades, how Richard adjusts his trailing stop according to the price and level of volatility and why simplicity is the most robust solution to deal with complex markets. Additionally, we address how Trend Following can be used as a diversification tool for your portfolio, the principle of return stacking and how it is used in Trend Following, why more people are turning away from the 60/40 portfolio and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:26 - The stark warning from Niall Ferguson

07:01 - What happened this week?

10:35 - Industry performance update

12:47 - Q1, Irwin: Turtle trading and the use of ATR for position sizing

23:19 - The relationship between trailing stop and volatility

32:45 - Simplicity and sticking to your model

39:32 - Is the 60/40 portfolio outdated?

53:31 - The principle of return stacking

01:04:52 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

ALO11: From Ballet Dancer to CIO ft. Cameron Dawson

7 september 2022 | 75 min

Today, we are joined by Cameron Dawson, CIO at NewEdge Wealth, who has a really unique background. We address how she allocate and construct her portfolios in a highly unstable and inflationary environment and why she prefesr to play on the smaller side of funds. We also discuss the importance of valuations and how it can help forecast long term returns and how she analyzes earnings and liquidity to understand and navigate an uncertain macro environment, the outlook for inflation and how the Fed might act to combat the economic instability as well as their process of recruiting external managers. Lastly, we discuss how narratives impact the markets and the importance of knowing the source of your returns, how to approach long-term investment to avoid buying at the top and selling at the bottom, as well as some sound advice for aspiring CIOs and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cameron on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:10 - Introduction to Cameron and her work at NewEdge Wealth

08:01 - Navigating in a tough environment

14:31 - Their approach to asset allocation

21:31 - The historical perspective

29:56 - Getting comfort in an uncertain macro environment

41:20 - Is high inflation here to stay?

48:33 - What it will take for the Fed to call victory?

53:18 - Bottom-Up or Top-Down?

01:00:39 - Dealing with individual investors

01:06:36 - Advice for aspiring CIOs

01:12:53 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI208: Trend Following in Today's Economy ft. Alan Dunne

4 september 2022 | 66 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following where we reflect on the ongoing instability in the markets and look back on the month of August. We also discuss behavioural biases and why we may need to distinguish between managed futures and trend following, an article by Quantica on the benefits of trend following and how it can without a doubt improve your portfolio. Lastly, we reflect on the annual event at Jackson Hole and the BIS talking about the challenges ahead, the 2% inflation target and how it can impact the economy if changed, the Volcker tightening cycle and the importance of narratives as well as an update on Jeremy Grantham’s super bubble hypothesis and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:01 - Summary of the week

09:44 - Industry performance update

11:46 - Reflecting on the month of August

16:13 - Alan’s perspective on the Cliff Asness article

28:01 - The undisputed benefits of Trend Following

38:00 - Key takeaways from Jackson Hole

46:00 - Comment from BIS

49:45 - Are we leaving the 2% inflation target?

53:54 - Lessons from the Volcker tightening cycle

01:00:20 - Latest piece from Jeremy Grantham

01:04:23 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO10: How to Manage $50bn ft. Jason Morrow

31 augusti 2022 | 68 min

Today, we are joined by Jason Morrow, Deputy CIO at Utah Retirement Systems, for a conversation on how portfolio management is carried out at a large pension fund. We discuss how Morrow approaches the objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio and the realized volatility over time, how they manage the challenges of an inflationary environment and balance their portfolio to mitigate risk, how they find the right mix of public and private equities and their approach to absolute return strategies. We also address the process of assembling a team of managers and evaluating quant strategies, how to mitigate behavioural biases when selecting manager, cultivating talent as a CIO and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jason on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:35 - Introduction to Jason Morrow

08:02 - Investment objective and constraints of URS’s portfolio

13:21 - How does inflation affect URS's portfolio?

20:27 - Building and balancing the portfolio

24:29 - Public vs. private equities

31:22 - Using multiple asset allocating strategies

38:06 - Their approach to selecting managers

41:15 - Evaluating quant strategies

45:51 - Behavioural biases in manager selection

50:27 - Return expectations setting for alts

55:42 - Mastering the role as a CIO

01:01:13 - Book recommendations and key advice for listeners

01:05:53 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI207: Trend Following: The Perfect Portfolio? ft. Jerry Parker

27 augusti 2022 | 76 min

Jerry Parker joins me for a raw conversation on Trend Following, the day after Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole on fighting inflation and achieving economic stability. We also discuss the pros and cons of CTA/Managed futures replication strategies and the importance of investing in your own fund as a manager, the evolution of Trend Following and why Trend Following might be the Perfect Portfolio. We touch on different ways of diversifying your portfolio and why correlation is not always reliable friend. Lastly, we discuss an article by Morgan Housel on why it is important to identify the core principles (in our case of Trend Following) and how incentives are the strongest force in the world, the importance of having confidence whilst being humble and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:51 - Summary of the week

08:35 - Industry performance update

12:21 - Discussion about CTA/Managed futures replication strategies

26:19 - Aligning incentives as a manager

33:28 - Aspect article in Hedge Fund Journal

46:47 - Article by Cliff Asness on Pure Trend Following

51:33 - Crisis alpha vs the Perfect Portfolio

01:03:40 - Article by Morgan Housel on following Core Principles

01:11:15 - Confidence vs. Ability

01:14:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM22: Investing through a Fourth Turning ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen & Cem Karsan

24 augusti 2022 | 75 min

Today, Cem Karsan and I reflect on previous conversations with guests on the Global Macro series and how they have developed us as investors. We also discuss the historical framework of the Fed and their role and power in the economy, how 40 years of monetary policy and technological revolution have caused historic inequality and how recessions have been handled throughout history. Additionally, we address the consequences of ultra low interest rates and high inflation and why we might see a loss of credibility in the Fed going forward, the importance of finding an edge in your investment strategy. Lastly, we discuss the strength of the dollar, how investors should position themselves in the wake of a Fourth Turning and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:54 - Looking back on previous GM guests and how they impacted our thinking

09:17 - Thoughts on the Fed and a historical perspective

21:11 - How much power and control does the Fed actually have?

31:02 - Low interest rates... a bubble maker?

40:03 - The inverted yield curve...a sign?

49:26 - Using volatility as a guide for equity markets

59:14 - What happens to the dollar?

01:04:13 - What should investors be considering at this point?

01:12:24 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI206: Trend Following is a Lazy Man's Strategy ft. Mark Rzepczynski

20 augusti 2022 | 71 min

This week, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for our weekly update on Trend Following, at the end of yet another busy week for inflation watchers. Based on an article by Cliff Asness at AQR, we discuss why you want to own managed futures and why you want to avoid getting "carried away" as a Trend Follower, the dual mandate and the difference between strategy and running a business, innovation in Trend Following and why macro trends do not always translate to price trends. We also discuss how high inflation affects Trend Following and the importance of divergence, why turning points kill the real issue beyond inflation and using the 70 percent rule to make trading decisions, the difference between trend following and momentum and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:22 - What happened this week?

13:36 - Industry performance update

16:07 - AQR latest article on managed futures

27:56 - The dual mandate and volatility "targeting"

37:55 - The private equity issue and innovation in Trend Following

43:48 - FT Article from Goldman Sachs about inflation and divergence

49:25 - How turning points impact your overall TF returns

53:17 - The 70 percent rule...and why it works for Trend Followers

56:03 - Hedgehogs vs. Foxes and drought in market liquidity

01:02:30 - Trend following vs. Momentum...can you tell the difference

01:03:55 - “Entrepreneurs of errors”

01:06:01 - Supply, Command and End-user of commodities

01:09:02 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM21: The Inflation Regime and the Big Macro Picture ft. Darius Dale

17 augusti 2022 | 72 min

Today, Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42macro, joins us for a conversation on Global Macro from a broad perspective. We discuss the outlook for inflation and the implication it has on the markets going forward, the path to a more elevated inflation level and how we may get there, what we can learn from the past about inflation and advice for trading in an inflationary regime. Additionally, Darius explains how he and 42macro consider external factors, such as demographics and structural changes when trading and analyzing the markets and he describes the financial and political impact of approaching a new Fourth Turning. Lastly, we discuss portfolio construction and risk management frameworks, why it is important to be humble and honest about the uncertainty and unpredictability of the current state of the markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Darius on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

0:00 - Intro

03:15 - Who is Darius Dale?

06:48 - Darius's strategic perspective

10:38 - What will happen to the inflation going forward?

20:28 - Looking at the next 6-12 months

26:18 - What about the longer term?

31:39 - The historical perspective

39:33 - What Darius is telling investors right now

48:22 - Dealing with external factors

58:36 - Factor correlation and clustering

01:02:07 - Are portfolio construction models outdated?

01:10:30 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: 42 Macro

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI205: Trend Following...What Really Matters ft. Richard Brennan

14 augusti 2022 | 68 min

Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss what really matters within Trend Following, as well as an update on the reaction to the latest CPI data. We also address questions from listeners regarding how to achieve a robust portfolio by avoiding recency bias and using a slow adaptive process, how sample size is most optimally used in Trend Following and the advantages of using a simplistic approach in your trading system. Lastly, we discuss the concept of warehousing risk and how it should be taking into account as part of the risk management. We analyse an article by Morgan Housel about long tails and how it drives every system with exceptional performance, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:36 - Review of the market action post CPI data?

07:27 - Industry performance update

11:35 - Q1, Gareth: Emphasising recent performance vs. over optimisation

21:13 - Q2, Antonio: Why not use a smaller sample size?

41:45 - What does warehousing risk mean?

50:52 - Tails, you win - Analysis of Morgan Housel article

56:50 - Top 3 things that matter the most in Trend Following

01:05:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL06: The History of Interest & the Next Devastating Crisis ft. Edward Chancellor

10 augusti 2022 | 76 min

Edward Chancellor, Author, Journalist and unrivaled Financial Historian, joins us today to discuss the history of Interest, based on his new book, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest". We address why it is crucial to pay attention to the historical perspectives of the economy, the allocation of capital and interest and why low interest rates have a feedback effect on the economy, the zombie corporate phenomenon and the impact it has on the economy. We also discuss the longer term consequences of low interest rates and whether bubbles can be beneficial, globalization and how interest rates impacts the fragility of global supply chains, the role of Central Banks and how they affect price stabilization by preventing creative destruction. Lastly, we discuss how the Fed policy of “cleaning up afterwards” creates unintended problems, how a zero interest policy can pose a threat to capitalism and much more.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Edward on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:19 - Introduction to Edward

04:19 - The process of writing his latest book

14:15 - Are we forgetting the economic history?

19:34 - How Edward approaches his study of Interest

25:43 - The impact of interest rates

35:22 - The notion of zombie companies

46:04 - Can bubbles be beneficial?

52:01 - How interest rate affects global supply chains

57:27 - Central banks and price stabilization

01:04:54 - Should Central Banks prevent bubbles?

01:08:39 - Is a zero-interest policy a threat to capitalism?

01:14:14 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI204: Trend Following & A Cocktail of Macro Factors ft. Alan Dunne

6 augusti 2022 | 68 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss the ongoing instability in the markets and rising inflation, and why we, as investors, should keep an open mind for what is to come. We address the pros and cons of replication strategies, the performance of the past months and why we are beginning to see a shift in the markets. We review some recent articles, including an interview with Edward Chancellor, who is current with a new book, The Price of Time. Topics we cover include the impact of low interest rates, how we are in a war economy and how we are seeing a shift in the aggregate supply curve, expectations and predictions for inflation in the coming time and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:02 - What happened this week?

14:20 - Trend Following update of the week

16:55 - Replicating vs. hiring managers

22:30 - Reflecting on the past months market reversals

40:36 - Why is Trend Following performing well at the moment?

48:06 - Discussing Edward Chancellor’s interview

53:06 - Zoltan Pozsar’s article on war and interest rates

58:56 - Bridgewater article on inflation and conversation with Bilal Hafeez

01:06:45 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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AL09: FED Funds may hit 8% ft. Bilal Hafeez

2 augusti 2022 | 69 min

Bilal Hafeez, Founder, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, joins us today to discuss the current state of the markets and how we are possibly heading into a new regime and why FED Funds may hit 8%. We address the economic outlook of the near future and how the FED will deal with the challenges of inflation and increasing interest rates, how technology has taken over parts of the labour force and how Covid-19 has changed the way people and companies work, how demographics impacts inflation and the growth problems that China currently experiences. We also discuss how the future for asset allocation looks and how the sanctions against Russia impacts the economy around the world. Lastly, Bilal explains his process and approach to making research and recommends books that have been influential to him.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Bilal on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:03 - Introduction to Bilal Hafeez

07:51 - How does the community respond to the current environment?

10:43 - FED Funds & the economic outlook of the next 6-12 months

23:17 - An inflation story

29:39 - Demographics - is it inflationary or dis-inflationary?

35:20 - What is next for asset allocation

44:03 - Should we worry about the sanctions against Russia?

51:58 - Lessons learned from previous crises

55:16 - Bilal’s research process and approach

01:02:36 - Book recommendations

01:06:01 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI203: A new way of doing Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker

30 juli 2022 | 84 min

Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker where we dive into some of the highlights from the challenging month of July and how the industry has handled the current high level of volatility and trend reversals, why Trend Following continues to work but how narratives can create vicious reversals in the markets. We also discuss questions from listeners regarding Jerry’s strategies for entering and exiting trades, advice for backtesting using continuous futures contracts, how to handle stop losses and including equities in your allocation strategy. Lastly, Jerry describes why he is in favour of accidental diversification and why he is always on the hunt for outliers, why adding more markets has no impact on the robustness of a system and why he prefers to be a “slow tractor”. We finish off discussing how some firms claim that they can replicate the returns of Hedge Funds and CTAs without charging much for it and Jerry reveals a profound change to how he wants to extract trends from markets...even if it means that he will more correlated to Equities.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:02 - Market overview

03:52 - Major events of the month

16:00 - The importance of narratives

19:16 - How Jerry handles equities

22:39 - Q1, Michael: How does Jerry enter a new trade after he exited his first?

25:55 - Q2, Caleb: Backtesting using continuous futures contracts

30:02 - Q3, Adam: How to use stop losses and equities inclusion

36:09 - Jerry's big reveal: "CTAs focus too much on diversification and correlation..."

45:42 - Tweet 1: Improving equity risk concentration

50:53 - Tweet 2: Diversification - a free lunch

53:01 - Tweet 3: Predictable vs. unpredictable inflation

56:55 - Tweet 4: Tractors picking out sports cars from ditches

58:57 - Tweet 5: Doing what you want is what people actually want

01:02:09 - Tweet 6: Non normal world is uncapped

01:05:01 - Replicating CTA performance at little cost...Andrew Beer style

01:21:05 - Industry performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

IL05: The Road to Economic Stability ft. Andrew Smithers

27 juli 2022 | 67 min

Today, we are joined by Andrew Smithers, Author, Economist and Founder of Smithers & Co, to discuss how we can achieve economic stability, based on his book, “The Economics of the Stock Market”. We address the Q Ratio and why it is important for economic stability, how to use the idea of hindsight value to predict markets and how monetary policy has contributed to economic instability, the incentives for a company’s management and how to balance the level of leverage. Lastly, we discuss reasons why policy makers should be focusing on Q, what Andrew has planned for the future and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Andrew on Smithers & Co & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:15 - Introduction to Andrew

03:28 - Key messages from his book

06:42 - How is the Q Ratio constructed?

14:34 - The idea of hindsight value

23:31 - How Quantitative Easing caused instability?

26:49 - How remuneration policies have led to an increased Q value

31:14 - The incentives for management

42:30 - Should policy makers focus more on Q?

53:10 - The economic consequences of Alan Greenspan

56:21 - Andrew’s plans going forward

01:04:42 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI202: Trend Following in a Binary World ft. Mark Rzepczynski

24 juli 2022 | 67 min

Mark Rzepczynsky joins us today for a weekly talk on Trend Following, where we discuss how we are beginning to see stagflation and recession around the world, how to manage systemic risk as a trend follower, how to construct your portfolio using Trend Following funds and why it’s preferred to let Trend Following funds replace bonds and commodities, whilst leaving equities in your portfolio. Additionally, we discuss how a global macro binary world allows for Trend Following to work and why Mark believe in “let prices speak for themselves”. We round things off discussing how the Fed uses the “Powell Call” rather than the "Greenspan Put" to determine how they should react to the markets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:43 - Recap of the major events from this week?

09:43 - Industry performance update

12:40 - Q1, Alp: How to manage Systemic Risks

32:40 - Q2, Algernond: Portfolio construction using Trend Following funds

41:05 - A global macro binary world and its impact on trend following

53:13 - Revival of accepting price action when it comes to investment process

01:01:18 - Moving beyond the Greenspan Put

01:04:39 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL04: Inflation & The Great Demographic Reversal ft. Manoj Pradhan

20 juli 2022 | 60 min

Manoj Pradhan, Author and Founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the structural forces that will drive markets in the future, based on his book, “The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. We cover demographics and how it has impacted inflation and interest rates, the idea of using robots and automation to make society more efficient and productive, how ageing is a major contributor to a country’s debt and how inflation can be used as a tool to deal with rising debt, monetization of debt through bonds and how it can be deflationary in some cases. Lastly, we discuss why Manoj believes inequality is going to decrease, due to an imbalance in the labour force, how this shift in equality impacts the economy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Manoj on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:13 - Introduction to Manoj and his book

07:59 - How demography has impacted inflation and interest rates?

15:05 - Can the global labour force be increased?

22:31 - Using automation to increase efficiency

33:49 - Did we interpret the yield curve wrong?

43:34 - The monetization of debt

50:13 - Is equality going to wane?

57:56 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI201: Trend Followers Positioned for Recession ft. Richard Brennan

16 juli 2022 | 84 min

Today, Richard Brennan tackle lots of great questions from listeners as to why Trend Following works, why trends occur in markets and why it is best to exploit them using a systematic approach, the idea of doing Trend Following on Trend Following using the TTU trend barometer. We also discuss different ways of looking at leverage in your portfolio, pros and cons of using stops and different approaches to applying volatility targeting. Lastly, we discuss why it can be beneficial to trade more than one Trend Following system, the issues that can occur when using the same system for a diversified composite, how to avoid the anxiety associated with building drawdowns and finally we address recent statements made that CTAs may be not be well positioned should we enter into a recession.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:03 - Update on recent market and economic news?

08:36 - Industry Performance update

10:28 - Q1, Bruno: Why does Trend Following work?

22:57 - Q2, Elie: Doing Trend Following on Trend Following

29:50 - Q3, Adam: How to calculate leverage for a CTA?

35:43 - Q4, Mark: Complicating your system with stops & views on volatility targeting

54:51 - Trading an ensemble of systems vs. a single system

58:44 - Using the same systems for a diversified portfolio

01:06:12 - Dealing with the psychological challenges of drawdowns

01:13:22 - Comments on whether Vol or TF strategies may be best for a comming Recession

01:22:01 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL03: Finding Optimism in Times of Crises ft. Larry Siegel

13 juli 2022 | 64 min

Today, Larry Siegel, Author and Director of Research at CFA Research Foundation, joins us to discuss his book, “Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance” and how demographic trends impact inflation. Additionally, we discuss the benefits of population growth, the importance of having a free society and how authoritarianism and fascism impairs a population, the history of economic growth and how it has enabled better and cheaper sources of energy, nuclear power and how it can be a solution to the global energy crisis. Lastly, we discuss why global warming is not as severe and urgent of a problem as many believe, due to technological advancements and great progress in recent years.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Larry on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:12 - An introduction to Larry and his book

11:46 - Key takeaways from Larry’s study of demographic trends

18:48 - Population and economic growth around the world

27:49 - The importance of freedom

31:53 - Economic growth = better and cheaper sources of energy?

38:30 - Nuclear power - a tail risk?

48:31 - The potential of genetic engineering in agriculture and medicine

54:07 - Is the climate emergency not an emergency?

01:01:40 - Takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI200: Stacking Returns into a Tightning Cycle ft. Alan Dunne

10 juli 2022 | 67 min

Today, Alan Dunne and I discuss the use of return stacking in asset management when building a diversified portfolio and the risk implications, adding CPPI on top of Trend Following and using options to achieve a constant cash flow. We also discuss the increasing inflation and rising uncertainty in the economy, the relationship between inflation and unemployment and how we are in the middle of a different Fed tightening cycle, as well as ways to build a portfolio in a difficult asset environment and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:58 - Summary of the week

07:49 - Industry performance update

10:50 - Q1, Matthijs: Using return stacking in portfolio construction

26:38 - Q2, Adding CPPI on top of Trend Following & using options

38:12 - Increasing uncertainty in the economy

56:13 - Building portfolios for different regimes

01:05:46 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: The Return of the Philips Curve

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL02: Cold War & US Relations with China ft. James A. Fok

6 juli 2022 | 65 min

James A. Fok, Financial Markets Professional and author of the book, “Financial Cold War”, joins us today for a discussion on how the Great Leap Forward has had an impact on China as a society and why they start to experience a virtual societal collapse, the financial relationship between China and the U.S and how financial warfare between the two countries can create a global crisis. We also discuss the idea of financial mutually assured destruction and how the Western society can become more financially independent from China and vice versa, the notion of having a neutral reserve currency to create a more balanced financial relationship and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow James on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:58 - Who is James A. Fok & why did he write his book

07:30 - A virtual societal collapse in China

19:02 - An emerging scepticism?

25:03 - The balance payment deficit of the U.S

40:10 - Deepening the interdependencies between China and the U.S

50:14 - A fragmented financial relationship

56:59 - The possibility of a neutral reserve currency

01:02:50 - Takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI199: Achieving Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage ft. Rob Carver

3 juli 2022 | 80 min

Rob Carver joins us to discuss the eventful month of June and take questions from listeners regarding moving average crossover systems including what the best exit rules are for these systems, and why it might not be a good idea to enter all existing positions for new accounts. We also debate the sustainability of short-term Trend Following and intraday trading, and how much of the profit from TF Systems can be expected to come from Long sided trades as well as ways of investing into UCITS funds with pension money without paying too high fees. Finally, Rob shares some very important aspects on the relationship between optimal leverage and CAGR and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

05:53 - Performance update from Rob and Niels

15:23 - Q1, Andrew: How best to use Moving Average Crossover Systems

20:40 - Q2, Greg: The downside of entering all existing positions for new accounts

24:13 - Q3, Algernond: Getting into UCITS funds at a reasonable price

28:04 - Q4, Michael: Has Rob considered refocussing on short-term trading?

44:20 - Q5, Anders: How much profit comes from long-sided trades & why?

55:08 - Understanding the relationship between CAGR & Leverage

01:17:58 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Highest CAGR through Optimal Leverage

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

IL01: Turning Water Into Wine with Diversification ft. Antti Ilmanen

29 juni 2022 | 67 min

In today’s episode, Antti Ilmanen, author and Global co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management, joins us to discuss key learnings from his new book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”. We break down why commodities are crucial for generating returns in periods of high inflation and how to manage risk through diversification. We also discuss portfolio construction and whether bonds are still valuable in a diversified portfolio, market timing and how to balance emerging markets and developed markets in your investment strategy, why a diversified blend of risk premia is advantageous and finish off highlighting potential pitfalls of using long-term data and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Antti on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:36 - About Antti’s book, “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”

15:22 - The importance of commodities, especially during inflationary times

21:36 - What’s up with bonds?

30:06 - Emerging markets vs. high beta

38:40 - Alternative risk premia...both Alpha & Beta like

47:00 - The idea of valuation spreads and crowding concerns

52:04 - The defensive bucket...getting rid of the junk

01:02:16 - Summary by Kevin and Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI198: Trend Following wearing Loose Pants ft. Jerry Parker

26 juni 2022 | 81 min

Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how recessions affect current trends and returns for Trend Followers, how to use ATR to determine the initial stop and when to switch to using a trailing stop for your position. We also discuss if it's possible to achieve comparable performance when investing through a public or private fund. Finally we turn to a few imporant topics like how “alts” or "alternatives" mean different things to different people, the Commodity Super Cycle and how it can create a false narrative, how Trend Following adapts to market regimes and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:57 - Market overview

09:42 - Q1, Andre: What to expect after a good run in Trend Following returns

13:51 - Q2, Ryan: How to use Average True Range (ATR)

27:05 - Q3, David: Performance in public mutual funds vs. offshore funds

32:07 - Q4, Paul: When to switch from Initial to Trailing stop and sizing your position

39:56 - Q5, Victor: How did Jerry manage to give back 200 ATRs in TESLA?

47:17 - Q6, Victor: How to Allocate your Risk Budget to avoid running out of cash?

53:41 - The different meatnings of “Alts” when it comes to investing

01:02:04 - Commodity Super Cycles - a false narrative?

01:09:51 - How Trend Following adapts to ever chaning market regimes

01:13:02 - What to expect from Trend Following in the long run

01:18:37 - Industry performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM20: Bitcoin & The Great Power Shift ft. Nathaniel Whittemore

22 juni 2022 | 87 min

Nathaniel Whittemore, aka NLW, creator and host on The Breakdown podcast, joins us in today’s episode to discuss the big power shifts and social changes that are taking place in the world right now, the limits of Central Banks to handle inflation, the future of Crypto and how it impacts the social dynamics of society. We also discuss the dark sides of Bitcoin, regulation of the Crypto space and its potential pitfalls and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nathaniel on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:05 - How Nathaniel ended up creating The Breakdown

05:30 - Big power shifts taking place right now

08:22 - Is the FED losing control?

18:38 - The future of Crypto

38:19 - The dark sides of Bitcoin

01:02:23 - A Bitcoin liquidation...could it happen?

01:07:13 - Regulating crypto...the pros and the cons

01:25:04 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI197: Why Trend Following Works...Especially Now ft. Mark Rzepczynski

19 juni 2022 | 75 min

In today’s episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss a listener question regarding different ways of adding capital and adjusting position size. We also take a deep dive into the latest research paper from Aspect Capital, which discuss the Great Repricing of Risk and why Trend Following strategies are advantageous in times of crises, dislocation of markets and how shocks in markets affect behaviour and performance. We also talk about the difference between unpredictable and predicable inflation and what this mean for investors, how people may start to lose confidence in the Central Banks and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:33 - Weekly overview

13:24 - Q1, Kyle: How to adjust position size, when adding capital

25:12 - The Great Repricing of Risk...and what this mean for you as an investor

35:25 - The different effects of large market shocks vs. many mini shocks

44:33 - What the future holds and if it will resemble the 1940s or the 1970s

51:44 - Losing confidence in Central Banks...the Micro and Macro impact

01:02:32 - Long term vs short term strategies...which will perform best in a volatile world?

01:11:50 - Industry performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM19: Brace Yourself for Dramatic Market Moves ft. Peter Atwater

15 juni 2022 | 78 min

In today’s episode, Peter Atwater, author and adjunct professor of Economics at William & Mary, joins us to discuss socionomics and why media is a great mirror of mood, how confidence in Central Banks relates to the level of interest rates, “stacked vulnerability” and how it runs the potential of creating exhaustion, inequality and the battle between the top and the bottom of society. We also discuss how the current inflation creates false expectations and why we might see a violent move in market prices, how deglobalization is a consequence of a change in social mood, ways to implement a more confidence driven decision making investment strategy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:05 - Peter’s background

05:36 - Why socionomics is important to understand and follow

14:27 - How to determine the Confidence in Central Banks

17:26 - Accumulated exhaustion, what this means

25:35 - Crypto - a betrayal?

37:55 - Expected and Un-Expected Inflation - a sign of Scarcity

46:01 - A potential massive market Cycle Top?

51:33 - Heading towards deglobalization

01:02:54 - Global Fragmentation

01:12:24 - Confident decision making

01:16:21 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI196: Where Next for Trend Following? ft. Rob Carver

12 juni 2022 | 73 min

Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss recent events in the world of Trend Following and takes questions from listeners regarding what it takes to do Trend Following full-time and how much capital is needed to do so. We also discuss potential benefits of adding a mean reversion system on a short term time frame and exploring trend following in spreads, what Rob thinks of trading alternative markets, how to mitigate the pain from false breakouts and how to select a universe of stocks to apply your existing rules. Finally, we break down the latest research paper from AHL dealing with the outlook of Trend Following, how Trend Following perform in crisis periods, in periods of rising interest rates and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:14 - Market recap

05:51 - What has caught Rob’s attention recently?

13:35 - Q1, Ben: Going Full-Time a a Trend Follow - How much capital do I need?

22:16 - Q2, Gambit: Should I add a Mean Reversion & Spread Trading model?

31:47 - Q3, Younggotti: Alternative assets and markets - do they help?

36:44 - Q4, FluffyDunny: How to best avoid False Breakouts

39:36 - Q5, Mendel: How to select your universe of stocks to trade

44:37 - AHL Paper: Gaining Momentum - Where Next for Trend Following?

01:07:22 - Bloomberg article

01:10:00 - Industry performance update

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK Gaining Momentum: Where Next for Trend-Following?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM18: Boomers, Tax & Deflation ft. Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen

8 juni 2022 | 71 min

In today’s episode, the dynamic duo Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf and Andreas Steno Larsen, join us to discuss all things Macro...from Central Banks and the reasons for the rising inflation, populism and how monetary policy has created inequality. We also get around demographics and how the shrinking labour force poses a threat to the economy, ESG and the impact it has on inflation, how a generational shift in politics can cause a taxation of the boomers, the 4th Turning and key mistakes to avoid as an investor and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Andreas on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:15 - Setting the stage for our conversation

07:26 - Current Macro outlook...and how its evolved in recent months

13:47 - Populism & potential for Deflation

28:51 - Demographics & Labour force

53:05 - Central Bank policies

01:03:58 - Key mistakes to avoid

01:10:09 - Wrapping up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI195: Trend Following 101 ft. Richard Brennan

5 juni 2022 | 83 min

Richard Brennan joins us in today’s episode, to discuss all things Trend Following and we take lots of questions from listeners regarding methods for calculating initial stops and trailing stops, how to define and classify Trend Following, programming languages and how CTAs follow their system rules during drawdowns. We also talk about how big the Trend Following industry really is, back testing, risk management and allocating funds to a professional manager and how the TTU Trend Following Index compares to other indices plus much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:24 - Weekly highlights

09:24 - Q1, John: Risk Management & Calculating stops

13:31 - Q2, Abe: Outliers, esoteric products - do we need them?

20:53 - Q3, Zach: How to keep following your rules in difficult times?

31:41 - Q4, Troy: How big is the Funds Management industry?

35:54 - Q5, Adam: Allocating to external TF funds, using Filters & much more

01:05:47 - The Unique side of the TTU Trend Following Index

01:19:03 - Industry Performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM17: Elon Musk...From Showman to Charlatan ft. Grant Williams

1 juni 2022 | 80 min

Today, Grant Williams, creator of The Grant Williams Podcast, joins us to discuss the direction that the world is heading from a global macro perspective, the role of the Federal Reserve and how it has corrupted the price of money. We also touch on how the loss of faith in institutions is a key feature of the Fourth Turning, how inflation impacts inequality and how confidence in the Federal Reserve correlates with the level of interest rates, crypto currencies and the underlying problems of the technology, Central Banking 2.0 and what happens if a Central Bank buys all the bonds in a market, real estate and the potential dangers of the housing sector, the commodity super cycle and how it causes rising interest rates, and the fate and fortune of Elon Musk plus much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Grant on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:19 - Grant’s background

05:54 - The big global macro picture

16:08 - The role of the Federal Reserve today

25:16 - Inflation...the great equalizer or not

36:09 - Crypto and not so stable coins

44:06 - Central Banking 2.0

58:43 - The danger signs in Real Estate

01:06:58 - The commodity super cycle

01:13:41 - Elon Musk...from Showman to Charlatan

01:19:04 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Things That Make You Go Hmmm... by Grant Williams

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI194: Trend Following & Manager Selection ft. Alan Dunne

29 maj 2022 | 72 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss manager selection and how to overcome behavioural biases, based on his paper, “Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle”, narratives and dealing with randomness in Trend Following, the end of the 60/40 portfolio and moving from public to private equity, trend following performance and quantitative investment strategies, trend following in an ever changing world and the expectation of going back to “normal”, the challenges of globalization and demographics and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:14 - Summary of the week

11:47 - The Challenges of Manager selection

18:22 - The Influeence of Randomness

25:57 - Alan's own Vulnerability

28:16 - The 5 Step Solution

30:03 - When the honest answer is what investors want to hear

46:42 - The evolution of the 60/40 portfolio - Barrons article

55:51 - Trend following in the Press

01:02:53 - Will we ever go back to "normal"

01:06:11 - The Great Demographic Twist

01:09:00 - Performance Update

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM16: Central Banking in a De-Globalized World ft. Joseph Wang

25 maj 2022 | 71 min

Joseph Wang, former senior FED trader & known as the “Fed Guy”, joins us to discuss the credibility of the FOMC and what drives the neutral rate, Central Bank policies and the consequences of increased divergence, monetary policies and reducing liquidity to address the problems of inflation, de-globalization and how labour is no longer connected to corporate wellness, how the FED and other Central Banks have focused on the wrong things for the last few decades, exorbitant privilege and whether the FED is starting to lose control, safe assets and ways to preserve capital, cryptocurrencies, strength of the Dollar and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Joseph on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:13 - Joseph’s background

06:34 - Shocking FED Announcement

10:52 - Central Bank policies

14:11 - Monetary policies and liquidity

30:40 - Fed paper suggesting they don't know where Inflation comes from

40:03 - The wider consequences

45:45 - FED losing control?

53:55 - Safe assets and crypto

01:05:01 - What keeps Joseph up at night?

01:09:52 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI193: Nothing But Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker

22 maj 2022 | 85 min

Trend Following legend Jerry Parker joins me today, where we answer questions regarding the effectiveness and risks of Richard Dennis’ “Pyramiding” methodology, how single stocks have performed differently than the indices recently, how to most optimally apply breakout systems, how to react to a drastic fall in a market like we saw in LUNA and the difference between performance of short and long trades in non-volatility targeted systems, how to avoid harmful research pursuits and popular ideas that just don’t work, different ways that ownership of a CTA passes on to a new owner, designing systems that gives you a high degree of consistency and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

06:32 - What has caught Jerry’s attention?

13:34 - Q1, Sascha: The Richard Dennis “Pyramiding” methodology

18:35 - Q2, Jeff: Jerry’s current positioning in single stocks

23:10 - Q3, Louis: Parameter selection for different breakout systems

32:16 - Q4, Adam & Scott: How to deal with a drastic fall in a market like LUNA

41:49 - Q5, Carl: What doesn’t work in Trend Following?

48:34 - Q6, Brian: How to pass on ownership of a CTA Business

53:34 - Designing consistent Trend Following systems

01:09:17 - Trend, trends and no diversification

01:22:36 - Performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM15: The New World Order & Space Race ft. Pippa Malmgren

18 maj 2022 | 81 min

Pippa Malmgren, former White House Adviser, technology entrepreneur and economist, joins us in today’s episode to discuss warfare in space and the space race between the super powers and the push to declassify UFO related information, how Pippa stays optimistic in a world of conflict and how the instability threatens Western democracy. We also discuss what we now know about COVID & the Vaccines and how this relates to the FED, how money printing has created a situation of both artificial calm and social unrest, whether China plans to invade Taiwan and what China has learned from the invasion of Ukraine, how the demographics of China and Russia can inhibit their power of action, how the lack of nuance contaminates the public debate and divides the population, the future of democracy and decline of autocracy, innovation and the jobs of tomorrow and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Pippa on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

05:26 - Out-sourcing & Off balance sheet government activities

08:05 - Space warfare

15:00 - Optimism in an unstable world

20:00 - The Future of Western democracy

25:10 - Money printing and its consequences

27:55 - The Baltics and separating Germany from the Alliance

33:52 - The prospects of China invading Taiwan

46:40 - What we now know about COVID & the Risk of the FED making a huge mistake

57:16 - Democracy in decline?

01:11:14 - The jobs of tomorrow

01:19:10 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Pippa's Substack

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI192: Knowing What You Don't Know ft. Mark Rzepczinsky

15 maj 2022 | 71 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us in today’s episode to discuss inflation and how it threatens the economy, the power and paranoia of Trend Following and how you make the most money as a Trend Follower, what history tells us about common risks and diversification, portfolio construction and whether having more markets gives you better returns, the timing of Trend Following and why you need to have it as a core allocation, how to build the optimal portfolio and why bonds currently may not warrent an allocation, Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi and how the FED being behind the curve affects Trend Following, why bond vigilantes are back and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:15 - Inflation

09:09 - Trend Following update

13:00 - Trends trends trends

28:49 - Portfolio construction

42:50 - Timing of Trend Following

49:12 - The Optimal Portfolio

55:12 - Sci-Fi vs. Fin-Fi

01:04:16 - China and future growth

01:06:07 - Overview of performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM14: The Dark Side of Renewable Energy ft. Adam Rozencwajg

11 maj 2022 | 77 min

Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins us in today’s episode to discuss ESG policies, the emerging energy crisis, and the new battle between the Climate-Green and the Nature-Green. We also dive into how the energy sector has evolved over time and the dark sides of renewable energy, why Moore’s Law does not apply to wind and solar energy, how cheap energy leads to distortion and malinvestment of energy, how the argument of human extinction skews the energy debate, nuclear energy and how it might be a solution to the climate crisis, how de-globalization has made the energy sector more vulnerable and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

05:12 - Adam’s background & the history of Energy

13:58 - The Dark side of Renewable energy

29:11 - Moore’s Law

36:54 - Malinvestment and creative destruction

44:33 - The renewable energy debate

52:34 - Nuclear energy

01:04:54 - De-globalization and its consequences

01:09:42 - Link between energy prices and GDP

01:13:00 - Rounding off

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Link: History of Energy G&R Video

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI191: The Flash Crash & Central Banks Screwing Up ft. Richard Brennan

7 maj 2022 | 71 min

Today, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss the fragility of the market and what happens if the Central Bank screws up, the current regime and how it benefits Trend Following, volatility targeting and how trending towards equilibrium differs from trending towards transition, how Trend Following has developed over the years, why he always invest in liquid markets, system diversification and how it allows you to expand your market diversification, the weak edge of Trend Following and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:32 - Weekly highlights

13:35 - Volatility targeting and continuous systems

38:30 - Researching structural reasons for success

43:30 - System Diversification vs Market Diversification

56:26 - The weak edge of Trend Following

01:07:30 - Performance overview

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM13: The Decline of the Dollar & Prepping for the Worst ft. Izabella Kaminska

4 maj 2022 | 92 min

Today, Cem and I are joined by Izabella Kaminska, former Editor of Financial Times Alphaville and Founder of The Blind Spot, to discuss the war of information and mis-information, the aftermath of Covid 19, how the media contributes to a segmentation of society, the group-think phenomenon, how shifts in culture has an impact on economics and how the war between Russia and Ukraine affects the global economy. We also discuss the power balance between the Western and the Russian economy, the dollar standard and the factors that contribute to undermine the dollar, isolationism and what de-globalization will look like, the energy crisis and how ESG is becoming increasingly important and perhaps leading to the rise of nuclear technology and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Izabella on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:45 - About Izabella and her journey

06:27 - Autocracy vs. Democracy

15:50 - Covid19...the aftermath

22:00 - Media Segmentation Theory

31:34 - 2022 Economics

49:50 - Western vs. Russian economy

56:31 - Shift in commodities

01:07:25 - Deglobalization

01:18:55 - Nuclear technology

01:24:41 - Prepping for the worst

01:28:34 - Rounding off

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI190: Overthinking the Systematic Investment Game ft. Rob Carver

1 maj 2022 | 81 min

Today, Rob Carver joins us to discuss what happened in the Trend Following world the past few weeks and takes questions from listeners regarding long/short portfolios and how to choose the right criteria for stock selection, positive and negative skew strategies and why mixing them together can be beneficial, interest rates and what to do with uninvested cash in your trading account, the substance and value of big research teams and whether they are “overthinking” the systematic investment game, asset classes and allocating risk, important differences between a moving average crossover strategy and a breakout strategy and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:21 - Market recap

04:55 - Update from Rob

14:50 - Q1, Adrian: “Good” criterias for stock selection?

22:32 - Q2, Emre: Arguments for mixing positive/negative skew strategies?

28:12 - Q3, Blink18: What to do with uninvested cash?

33:45 - Q4, Harry Hindsight: What do big research teams really do?

42:38 - Q5, Richard: Should the class level of an instrument be a criteria for inclusion?

48:34 - Q6, Adam: Difference between moving average crossover and breakout strategy?

54:14 - Q7, James: Common methodologies for position size?

57:34 - The Financial plumbing

01:05:20 - Fixed income markets are not all the same

01:11:20 - War Stories

01:17:25 - Performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM12: WW3 is just the beginning ft. Peter Zeihan

27 april 2022 | 79 min

In this episode, Niels and Cem are joined by Peter Zeihan, author and Geopolitical strategist, to discuss the New World Order and World War III, how the Globalization has become a new battleground rather than a barrier to conflict, the role of technology in modern warfare, how the US were able to read Putin's emails and the impact of war on a national and global scale, the military and political power of China, America and Russia and the relationship between them and the rest of the world, how democracy is affected by the “age of emergency”, the financial aspects of war and crises, crypto as a potential economic asset and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:15 - How we got to the brink of WW3?

09:42 - The role of technology

18:32 - The relationship with China

28:25 - Submarines and the war in Ukraine

40:38 - Age of emergency and the threat to Democracy

47:58 - Autocracy and technology

54:34 - The financial perspective

59:39 - The role of Crypto

01:02:39 - Climate change

01:06:56 - What Investors should do

01:10:42 - The role and future of Governments

01:17:11 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: The End of the World is Just the Beginning

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI189: A New Era for Currencies ft. Alan Dunne

24 april 2022 | 72 min

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss currency markets and how we might see a new era of volatility in these markets moving forward, de-dollarization and the future prospects of the U.S dollar, recent performance of Trend Following and how it compares historically, insights from Alfred Winslow Jones as featured in the book, “More Money Than God”, portfolio construction techniques for managing risk, the importance of having a plan, long-only commodities vs. a long/short approach and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:16 - Market recap

09:02 - New opportunities in Currency markets

23:57 - Putting Trend Following performance in perspective

33:13 - Insights from “More Money Than God”

40:04 - Fixed income vs. equities...where to hedge against inflation

50:52 - Insights from recent conversations with CIOs

58:49 - Commodities...Long Only or Long/Short

01:09:20 - Overview of performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM11: The Billionaires Protocol ft. Dr. Ben Hunt

20 april 2022 | 71 min

Today, Niels and Cem are joined by Dr. Ben Hunt, Creator of Epsilon Theory, to discuss how he uses game theory, history and behavioral analysis to understand Narrative and how it is used as a weapon to influence human behaviour, how technology has made us more susceptible to "nudging", how Narrative is used to create more competition, division and inequality, how important it is to recognize “the water in which we swim”, the power of Narrative and control of the media, and how to fight back against autocracy in pursuit of happiness, the Billionaires Protocol and much more!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Ben on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:02 - Ben’s background

06:03 - When did Narrative start to become dominant?

16:43 - The nudging competetive state

40:43 - The power of Narrative and “control” of the media

49:24 - How do we fight back?

54:08 - Crypto - a liberation tool?

01:03:28 - Lack of imagination

01:08:28 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Epsilon Theory

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI188: Trading with Style ft. Jerry Parker

16 april 2022 | 70 min

Jerry Parker joins us in today’s episode, to discuss pros and cons of adding different trading styles to your strategy and how to react when bad periods occur, using borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach, expected returns of equities, finding the best investment strategy, achieving a high level of consistency in your Trend Following returns, using AI and Machine Learning to predict the future, Divergent Regimes and how they may last a lot longer this time, the geometry of classic Trend Following, what it takes to succeed and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

If it helps adding different styles to your trading strategy
If you should use borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach
How to find the best investment strategy
How to achieve a high level of consistency in your returns
The use of AI and Machine Learning...does it improve your returns
Divergent Regimes and the end of Carry
The geometry of classic Trend Following
What it takes to succeed

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

05:02 - What’s been on Jerry’s radar?

07:30 - Q1, Isaiah - Add trading styles or stick with the “Trend Following + nothing”?

19:31 - Q2, Nick - About leverage and using borrowed money

25:40 - Jerry's Tweets

38:30 - Consistency in returns & how to achieve this

43:15 - AI and Machine Learning

49:27 - Divergent Regimes

56:51 - Geometry of trend following

01:01:04 - Inertia of success

01:04:45 - Deep Roots article by Morgan Housel

01:06:27 - Performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO08: Investing like the Rothschild's ft. Hugo Capel Cure

13 april 2022 | 61 min

Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Hugo Capel Cure, Managing Director of Rothschild & Co, to discuss how they build strong portfolios for their clients, how rising inflation can affect the markets in a surprising way, how they use CTAs and Trend Followers to mitigate risk, the challenges of staying invested, being a stock and fund picker at the same time, how manager selection is like a dating process and how they differentiate between process and outcome, how they make good decisions as a team, how to act in times of crises, the people who inspired Hugo to become a better investor and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How to build strong Multi-Asset portfolios for your clients
How using CTAs and Trend Followers can help mitigate risk
How manager selection is like a dating process
How to make good decisions as a team
How to be well prepared for the next crises

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Hugo on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:18 - Introduction to Hugo’s work and investing strategy

18:32 - From correlation focused to trading oriented strategies

24:50 - Being allocated to trend followers

28:35 - Challenges of staying invested

30:23 - Being a chef and a critic

39:41 - Making decisions and having a plan

53:09 - People who have inspired Hugo

59:31 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI187: Why Commodities & Why Now ft. Tim Pickering

9 april 2022 | 70 min

In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio
How to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes
How ESG and commodities trading is closely related
Whether to embrace Chinese commodity markets
Why the war in Ukraine is so important for commodities
Strategies for protecting yourself against inflation

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Tim on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:40 - What has caught Tim and Niels’ attention recently?

06:33 - What has happened since last Niels and Tim spoke in 2014?

11:45 - Has Tim made any major research discoveries since last time?

19:31 - Why commodities and why now?

30:50 - How much room for liquidity is there in the markets?

37:32 - Tim’s thoughts on the LME

44:31 - Thoughts on commodity exposure and futures

51:51 - Why is Ukraine so important for commodities?

01:00:16 - Risk mitigation strategies at big pension plans

01:07:08 - Update on performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO07: CIOs on the Edge of Finance ft. Katherine Molnar & Andrew Spellar

6 april 2022 | 70 min

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies, running portfolios using a risk parity framework, moving into digital assets, manager selection and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How asset allocation is handled in a successful public pension fund like Fairfax County Retirement System
How they manage risk and create balance in their portfolios
How instability in the markets has shaped their strategy
How they look at return expectations
The (brave) move into digital assets
Manager selection
Skills and challenges of being a CIO

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katherine on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:05 - Overview of Fairfax County’s asset allocation strategy

14:27 - How has the current market affected their strategy?

19:35 - The growth of risk mitigation strategies

28:42 - Setting return expectations

37:02 - What scenario keeps Molnar and Spellar awake at night?

39:38 - Digital assets in a public pension plan

51:05 - Manager selection...the insight scoop

58:00 - Skills and challenges of being a CIO

01:04:30 - Advice on becoming a better allocator

01:08:08 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI186: Crisis Alpha & My Trend Following Thesis ft. Richard Brennan

3 april 2022 | 85 min

Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode for sure!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Interest Rates and the current Bear Market in Bonds
Our slighltly different definitions of the term "Crisis Alpha"
The concern's Rich has for the World, and what that means for Trend Following
The impact on Trend Following of a De-Globalization of the World
The difference between initial and trailling stops, and when to use them
What software to use to backtest your systems
Whether dynamically adjusting your position size during a trade is better or worse than keeping it static

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:09 – Weekly recap from Niels

05:22 - Update on Rich's Battleship

15:35 - Crisis Alpha...yes but much more

21:40 - My Trend Following Thesis

37:24 - Q1, Andrew: Could you all define the use of a trailing vs initial stop in systems you use?

52:25 - Q2, Nicolas: Do you know any affordable back testing systems, other than Excel?

56:45 – Q3, Brian: If you Vol adjust your positions...when, if ever, do you re-establish your full position if volatility collapses?

01:21:26 – Industry Performance Update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO06: Betting against Buffett ft. Ted Seides

30 mars 2022 | 63 min

Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decision making processes and governance, crypto currencies and digital assets and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The philosophy of David Swensen and the Yale Model
How the role of hedge funds has changed over the years
The bet Seides made with Warren Buffett
Asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome
What Seides has learned from doing his podcast
The importance of leadership and time management
The difficulty of making a good decision in the heat of the moment
The future of crypto currencies and digital assets

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Ted on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:23 - Ted’s background

07:35 - How Seides deviates from Swensen in his approach

10:36 - The Yale Model and the end of 60/40

15:55 - Is it more difficult to be a hedgefond allocator now?

23:03 - Asset allocation vs. manager selection

31:35 - What has Seides learned from doing his podcast?

39:58 - Learning by doing vs. learning from courses etc.

41:22 - What has Seides learned from interviewing CIOs and Allocators?

43:35 - What constitutes good and bad governance?

49:14 - Ted’s perspective on crypto currencies and digital assets

51:55 - Macro trends in the coming years

53:39 - Reflection on the success of Ted’s podcast

57:47 - How Ted’s role has evolved

01:01:21 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Link: David F. Swensen

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI185: Trend Following in a De-Globalised World

26 mars 2022 | 78 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Different strategies for rebalancing your portfolio
How de-globalisation can impact Trend Following
The recent events in Nickel trading at the LME
How divergence might cause disruption in markets,
How the Japanese philosophy, Kaizen, can be applied to trend following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - Market recap

04:41 - What has caught Mark’s attention recently?

13:46 - Overview of the week

18:28 - Q1, Brett: Any thoughts on rebalancing based on trending performance?

30:45 - Trend Following, globalization and the Dark Ages

47:15 - What happened at LME?

59:18 - Fidelity, Edward Johnson and the Kaizen philosophy

01:14:29 - Update on performance

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Link: Edward ‘Ned’ Johnson, Former Fidelity CEO, Dies - WSJ

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin Coldiron

23 mars 2022 | 67 min

In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, we discuss:

The increasing popularity of carry trading and its role in the global economy
The risk and volatility of carry trading, and how it can play a role in financial bubbles
How carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies
The role of liquidity within the carry world
The future of carry

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on Twitter

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:25 - Introduction to Kevin

05:53 - Background on the co-authors of Kevin’s book

09:43 - Definition of carry trading with examples

13:56 - Volatility vs. risk

23:11 - The role of Volatility in investing

28:27 - Carry trade suppressing volatility

35:55 - Does carry trades play a role in financial bubbles?

41:01 - The current carry regime?

43:38 - Carry in macroeconomics

52:48 - What comes after the carry regime?

01:05:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI184: To Trend Follow or Not To Trend Follow ft. Alan Dunne

20 mars 2022 | 70 min

In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Trend following and its strengths, weaknesses, relevance and future
Dealing with volatility as a trend follower
Finding investment strategies that fits your personality
What causes trends in markets
Risk mitigation strategies

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:45 - Market recap

04:32 - Overview of the week

11:35 - Q1, ABE: What are your opinion on roll-harvesting strategies?

21:06 - What causes trends in markets?

43:05 - Is it too late to invest in trend following?

50:22 - Risk mitigation and investor perception of Trend Following

58:42 - Key insights from the Allocator series so far

01:06:51 - Update on performance

Resources discussed in this Episode:

Hedge funds pull in another USD11.29bn in January

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL11: The Anatomy of a Trade ft. Alex Gurevich

16 mars 2022 | 62 min

In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How different types of bonds are valuated
The pattern in how many times the FED tends to move rates, once they begin
Why Rate cycles are getting shorter (in time)
Why Alex believes that the FED should not raise rates before reducing their balance sheet
Alex playbook for the Ukrainian crisis: Oil could collapse to $40 and Rates could go back to zero
How your performance can end up defining who you are (if you are not careful)
The synchronisation of the central banks and how the future might look for the global financial market

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Alex on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:42 - Introduction to Alex and his background

07:20 - How Alex think about bonds

16:37 - Have bonds become more important since 2008?

18:15 - Making decisions as a trader, and handling victories and defeats

28:01 - Why did Alex go into dividend futures during Covid crisis?

33:41 - What Alex would have done if the FED had not stepped in during the Covid crisis

35:40 - How manager can feel that their performance defines who they are

41:27 - The synchronization of central banks and the affect on rates

48:59 - What’s going to happen with the FED going forward?

54:05 - Rounding off and overview of Alex’s books

59:38 - Thank you for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI183: Nickel Short Squeeze & Trend Following in an Unstable World ft. Jerry Parker

12 mars 2022 | 84 min

Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and rounding off our conversation with interesting and somewhat provocative tweets from Jerry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Trend following and volatility in relation to the current situation in Ukraine
The recent short squeeze in nickel trading and the reaction from the LME
Tips and tricks to grow as a trend follower
How to develop a good trend following system
How to manage trailing stops
How Jerry managed his short Russian stock position
What Jerry will focus on as he stops doing Trend Following Research

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:40 - Summary of the week

08:03 - What happened this week with nickel trading

14:53 - Q1, Josh: Any tips and tricks for Trend Following investing and ETFs?

31:57 - Q2, William: How do you react following a missed breakout?

37:11 - Q3, ABE: Is it wise to avoid Index-based products and how to trade CTA Index Futures? How do CTAs as an industry, become part of the financial zeitgeist going forward?

45:36 - Q4, FunnyMoney: Are trading stops intra-day or managed at the next day open?

49:25 - What happens if you stop doing trend following research

57:00 - Tweets from Jerry

01:20:43 - Performance overview

01:21:49 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO05: Better than Alpha ft. Chris Schelling

9 mars 2022 | 69 min

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the risk of manager selection.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How are assets managed in the private space vs institutional space
Biases in asset allocation and how to overcome them.
Using Alpha, Beta and other investment strategies
Due diligence and things to avoid in the process
The risks of manager selection and what it takes to be a good manager.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chris Schelling on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:23 - About Chris’s background and his role at Venturi

12:45 - Disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard

17:54 - How the industry has evolved over the years

21:56 - Is private equity less risky?

23:43 - Is liquidity being more or less valued as it should be?

27:39 - Alpha, Beta and mapping strategies into categories

32:37 - Dispersion and persistence of returns

36:30 - How to set objectives and make decisions

40:14 - Overcoming biases

44:20 - Dealing with randomness

47:33 - Important skills managers need to have

54:29 - Timeframe for analysing a manager’s performance

57:46 - Things to avoid in the due diligence process

01:00:14 - Risks within manager selection

01:03:00 - How much experience do you need?

01:05:09 - Advice for working with asset allocation and manager selection

01:06:12 - Book recommendations

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI182: Trend Following in Times of Crises ft. Rob Carver

5 mars 2022 | 85 min

Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing assets and portfolios and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How the aweful situation in Ukraine affects trend following and volatility
Rebalancing strategies within your portfolio
The advantage of systematizing your trading
When I sat down with the founds of AHL at Abbey Road Studios

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:15 - Update on markets

05:50 - What has caught attention and review on performance

27:08 - Status on Rob’s book

29:27 - Q1, Harry: What might next frontier be that seems silly today, but common sense later? Who's the next David Harding?

34:04 - Q2, Ravi: What are the implications to the markets and the wider global economy?

39:00 - Q3, Zoran: How do you navigate through such events (war in Ukraine) as a systematic investor?

46:00 - Q4, Richard: If trend following ever became overcrowded, could you identify it and would you take any action?

51:55 - Q5, Y: Should traders rely on the experience of past wars/conflicts or is this time different?

55:31 - Q6, Emre: Any advice on rebalancing my assets and portfolio?

01:02:35 - Q7, Gene: How do you and your guests reason about the timing of your trades?

01:08:03 - Q8, Akul: Why not dynamically change the allocations to different speeds of momentum?

01:14:32 - Q9, Zach: Is there a way to add trend following volatility instruments?

01:18:53 - Q10, Carl: How to rebalance between multiple strategies?

01:22:12 - Thank you for listening, and whats coming up next

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO04: Insights from the Queens Bank CIO ft. Alan Higgins

2 mars 2022 | 63 min

On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book recommendations on asset allocation and investing.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade
The surprise of markets ability to trend
The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough
Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson
Why this time feels different
Lessons from the 1987 Crash

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Alan Higgins on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:05 - Alan’s background and current role

04:44 - Risk premium and fixed income

24:33 - Setbacks and drawdowns

26:45 - Inflation

35:06 - Interest rates, bonds and dividends

43:22 - Asset allocation and portfolio construction

46:18 - Alan’s role at Eighteen48 Partners

48:33 - David Swensen and the Yale Approach

50:15 - Risks of private equity strategies

52:16 - Good vs. bad investment processes

55:00 - Managing investment teams

56:52 - Book recommendations

01:01:06 - Summary by Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI181: The Power of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan

27 februari 2022 | 84 min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why now might be the best time to be invested in Trend Following strategies
How systematic investing can be applied to the ESG space
The cause of longer-term price trends
The Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report
The best lookback period for Trend Following models
The need to diversify away from the ‘buy the dip’ mentality

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:49 – Macro recap from Niels

06:40 – Weekly review of performance

16:35 – Thoughts on Niels, Rich & Jerrys’ LinkedIn conversation with Harold De Boer of Transtrend

23:16 – Q1; Frank : How do you see Trend Following strategies fitting into the ESG space?

31:43 – Why we developed the Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report

51:55 – Q2; Steve : What else causes a long price trend if endogenous shocks are the initial cause?

01:09:39 – Shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term Trend Following

01:15:11 – The power of Trend Following during this period of heightened uncertainty

01:20:14 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO03: Lessons from a $25 billion CIO ft. Elizabeth Burton

23 februari 2022 | 64 min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulties in the manager selection process, and how to simplify complex ideas in order to communicate more efficiently.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The outlook for inflation
Achieving high performance consistently
How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly
Mean variance optimisation
Whether this time is different
Selecting the right manager
Simplifying complexity for better understanding

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:30 - Elizabeth’s background and history in the investment world

04:55 - Elizabeth’s perspective on today’s markets

06:52 - Managing a public fund versus a private fund

08:14 - Performing above expectations

09:38 - The current outlook for inflation

11:31 - How to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation

13:57 - Fixed income versus real assets

14:51 - Categorising asset classes effectively

19:56 - The limits of mean variance optimisation

21:59 - Using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making

24:09 - Whether this time really is different

25:25 - Difficulties in the manager selection process

28:35 - Choosing between macro and systematic investors

30:08 - The pitfalls of investing with macro traders

32:40 - Investing in a manager who includes crypto in their portfolio

34:34 - Allocating between systematic and discretionary managers

36:45 - How to screen for a good money manager

40:44 - How to respond when a manager is underperforming

43:48 - Process over outcome

47:04 - Working with consultants

52:27 - Lessons from a leadership coach

57:00 - Simplifying complex ideas for better communication

01:00:28 -Advice for aspiring allocators

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI180: Data Versus Stories & The "Moscow Rules" ft. Mark Rzepczynski

20 februari 2022 | 77 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How Trend Following differs to momentum
Avoiding the need to make predictions
The Federal Reserve and its effects on Trend Following strategies
ARKK’s media scrutiny following recent poor performance
The similarities between Trend Following and options
How to calculate ‘risk-to-stop’
Qualifying new investors before accepting them as clients
The “Moscow Rules"

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02 – Macro recap from Niels

04:39 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Q1 Zack: How should I calculate the risk-to-stop metric?

28:42 – Q2 Peregrine: Vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk

42:09 – Q3 Graham: Can you detail some of the definitions of a breakout?

47:24 – Trend Following versus Momentum

01:00:58 – Molecules of prices

01:08:31 – Data versus stories and when to apply the ‘Moscow Rules’

01:15:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:52 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO02: Properly Diversifying a $1.6Trillion Portfolio ft. Sebastien Page

16 februari 2022 | 76 min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of treasury bonds, lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams, achieving a state of ‘flow’, and how to simplify complex financial topics.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Ever-changing market correlations
Strategic asset allocation
Responding to interest rate changes
Achieving utility maximisation
Mean variance analysis
Portfolio diversification
Treasury bonds
High performance teams
Simplifying complexity

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn & read his book.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

09:39 - Current view on the markets

13:37 - How to position portfolios for the year ahead and beyond

18:41 - The current outlook for equities and the sectors within

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

27:04 - Approaches to strategic asset allocation

33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation

37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis

41:49 - Using scenario analysis

47:41 - Distributions during different market regimes

55:12 - How to properly diversify a portfolio

58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds

01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams

01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’

01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI179: A New Golden Era for Trend Followers ft. Alan Dunne

12 februari 2022 | 65 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series, and why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How central bank signalling affects risk appetite around the world
How Trend Following might perform in a rising interest rate environment
Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio
How managed futures can help investor throughout ever-changing markets
The viability of the 60 /40 portfolio going forward
Why a new golden era for Trend Following might be emerging

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:36 - Macro recap from Niels

05:29 - Weekly review of returns

09:55 - How the change of tone from central banks affects the markets

18:29 - Trend Following in rising interest rate environment

25:19 - Including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio

36:12 - The future of the 60 / 40 portfolio

46:53 - Some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s Allocator Series

52:43 - Why we might be entering a great period for Trend Following

01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

ALO01: Adapting to Market Cycles ft. Phil Huber

9 februari 2022 | 66 min

Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator, and how to manage difficult conversations with clients.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Better education around capital allocation
Allocating capital throughout various market cycles
How to define an ‘alternative investment’
How actively we should manage a portfolio
Traditional versus alternative investments
The difficulties in the manager selection process
Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator
Difficult conversations with clients
Advice for aspiring capital allocators

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Phil on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:44 - How 2022 has been for allocators so far

03:13 - Phil Huber’s journey into investing

05:46 - Why Phil wrote a book on capital allocation

09:00 - The typical clients, and types of portfolios that Phil deals with

12:07 - The 60 / 40 portfolio and how it became so popular

18:49 - Adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles

22:37 - Defining ‘alternative investments’

30:27 - Choosing which strategies to invest in, and when to choose these strategies

37:45 - The extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed

39:36 - Traditional versus alternative investments

40:04 - The challenges of manager selection

49:51 - Cultivating a behavioural edge as an allocator

53:09 - The importance of courage

54:55 - Managing difficult conversations with clients

01:01:68 -Advice for aspiring asset allocators

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI178: Value Investing vs Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker

6 februari 2022 | 77 min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Letting winners run and cutting losses early
Using 1 entry signal and 1 exit signal per trade versus multiple signals
Redefining what are typically known as ‘safe assets’
Howard Marks’ opinion on following price
Achieving effective risk parity within a portfolio
How endogenous outliers are hard to predict

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:44 – Macro recap from Niels

05:24 – Weekly review of performance

11:51 – Jerry & Rich’s thoughts on Howard Mark’s opinion of Trend Following

24:46 – Why exit rules might be harder to create than entry rules

43:45 – Risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio

51:03 – The unpredictability of endogenous outliers

01:10:08 – The old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’

01:13:54 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:01 A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL10: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan

2 februari 2022 | 83 min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How market behaviour is often intertwined
Why Cem chose to manage outside capital
The thinking behind institutional market moves
How the global pandemic affected markets
Dealer flows
Feedback loops
Delta hedging

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:17 - Cem’s background, and current work

19:18 - The decision to manage outside money

24:06 - The trades that institutions like to make

30:22 - Feedback loops within markets

34:17 - The dynamic between futures and options

51:15 - Using Econophysics to find hedging methods

53:40 - Building various volatility models and research using toy models

57:05 - Approaches to Delta hedging

01:00:11 -Changes to qualitative features of overnight indices

01:03:12 -Investment products on the VIX and effects on the S&P 500

01:10:09 -The feedback loop between inflation, deflation and central bank rate policies

01:20:01 -Whether or not there is an asymmetry between deflation and inflation risk

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI177: The Value of Price ft. Mark Rzepczynski

31 januari 2022 | 77 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Central bank policies and their effects on Trend Following performance
The benefits of having multiple entries and exits across different timeframes
Howard Marks’ recent thoughts on trading price action only
The status of the commodity markets
Hedges against inflation
Creating the perfect portfolio using Trend Following
Trend Following versus ‘trend chasing’

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:05 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:36 – Macro recap from Niels

06:22 – Weekly review of performance

15:10 – Q1; Zack : Has there been any research into how systematic investing improves ones performance over discretionary investing?

41:24 – Making predictions on commodities and inflation

50:27 – How Fed policy affects the Trend Following environment

01:04:18 – The re-emergence of longer-term terms

01:13:43 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL09: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell

26 januari 2022 | 65 min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How quantum physics relates to financial markets
The mechanics behind price impacts
David’s new book, coming out soon
The magical characteristics of money
The power and unpredictability of sentiment
Weather and how it relates to financial markets
Central bank money creation and how effective it can be
Cognitive interference

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:54 - Can you give us some conclusions from the research you’ve done on weather forecasting?

04:33 - Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?

07:12 - Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?

12:46 - Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?

17:41 - Can you explain how quantum physics relates to financial markets?

23:15 - Can you give a couple of examples of cognitive interference?

28:00 - Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?

42:28 - Can you talk about your new book, and what the title means?

45:24 -Does Modern Monetary Theory relate to the quantum physics analogy of something being created from nothing?

52:30 - Do you believe that money creation by central banks is unsustainable?

57:28 - Would you say that your work implies that minor tweaks to the framework are inadequate when it comes to the economy and investing?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI176: The Origin of Outliers ft. Richard Brennan

23 januari 2022 | 89 min

Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Spotting patterns among previous outliers
Simplicity over complexity
How little the news really moves markets
Professional Trend Following versus 'Trend Trading'
The ability of Trend Following models to automatically reduce open risk during drawdowns

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:19 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:41 – Macro recap from Niels

04:13 – Weekly review of performance

11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?

17:22 – Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?

21:24 – Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?

24:14 – Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?

29:07 – Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management?

32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’

38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers

01:01:53 – Efficient market hypothesis versus adaptive market hypothesis

01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?

01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL08: Adaptation To Change ft. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

19 januari 2022 | 62 min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating yourself as a Trend Follower, and the connection between volatility strategies and high frequency data.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The extent to which news drives price action
How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations
Jean-Philippe's journey into finance
The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal
Dimensional analysis
The inelastic market hypothesis
Standing out in the Systematic Investor space
Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:38 - What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?

05:04 - Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?

15:24 - How timely do you consider the Bloomberg feed to be? Is it quick enough?

19:18 - How do we stitch together the two ideas of micro market data

28:20 - Do you the believe in the research that is carried out using dimensional analysis?

32:58 - Do you think that the inelastic market hypothesis was driven by flows into passive vehicles?

37:13 - Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?

40:13 - Can you tell us about your journey so far with CFM?

50:21 - Do you still do Trend Following, and if so, how do you do it different from a standard Trend Follower?

52:08 - If you kill the beta in a Trend Following program, do you lose the convexity?

52:38 - What’s the relation between volatility and higher-frequency momentum systems, in your view?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI175: A Winning Approach to Risk ft. Rob Carver

16 januari 2022 | 86 min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The perception of Trend Following among various types of investors
How many positions to trade at once
The ‘riskiness’ of various investment strategies
Combining Trend Following and Volatility strategies
Risk-per-futures contract
How much cash to keep on the sidelines and what to do with it
Pyramiding positions
CFD trading and navigating commissions
Measuring correlations effectively

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:24 - A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

04:47 - Macro recap from Niels

08:17 - Weekly review of returns

11:01 - How has your new approach been working out, Rob?

19:33 - Q1; John: How should I approach risk-per-contract?

27:41 - Q2; Patrick: What is your opinion on using a fixed percentage of free-cash balance?

34:30 - Q3; Frederick: How do professional Trend Followers pyramid into a position?

46:24 - Q4; Michael: Which full-size contract would you say is a ‘must-have’?

01:01:19 - Q5; Rene: When it comes to trading CFDs, how can I deal with changing transaction fee percentages?

01:09:55 - Q6; Michael: Do you have any advice for a 34-year old who wants to enter the managed futures industry? Has Rob ever considered starting his own fund?

01:15:52 - Q7; James: How far back should we look when measuring correlations?

01:23:27 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL07: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge

12 januari 2022 | 67 min

Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio
Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’
The importance of compounding
Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio
Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies
Value investing in the volatility space
Methods for taking profits
Sizing portfolio allocations

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Dave on LinkedIn.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:01 - How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?

04:55 - How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method

07:53 - Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?

08:56 - What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?

10:15 - Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?

15:46 - How do you source good ideas, and has living in Singapore given you an edge for this?

27:12 - Can you talk about the Taliban’s use of the ‘Sandpile Theory’?

33:13 - Are there more opportunities for you globally now, then there used to be?

40:51 - What are your mechanisms for taking profits?

47:19 - What’s your view on paying for convexity in your positions?

51:13 - Do you engage in skew trades?

52:41 - How do you think about low-vol?

55:49 - How do you size allocations to your long-vol strategy?

01:01:49 - Closing thoughts from Dave?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI174: The Future of Trend Following ft. Alan Dunne

10 januari 2022 | 67 min

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss what the future could look like without central bank liquidity being pumped into the markets, macro versus quantitative trading approaches, how to avoid crowded strategies, some post analysis of a trend following research paper, whether CTAs are being gamed by other participants, analysing the various methods of price trend measurements, what may have caused a more difficult trading environment for Trend Following strategies in the 2010s, and the economic factors that lead to great periods for Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

What markets could look like without Federal Reserve liquidity injections
Macro versus quantitative approaches
Avoiding crowded strategies
What it was like to trade through 2018
How market participants may try to game Trend Followers
Measuring the strength of price trends
Reviewing the performance of Trend Following during the 2010s
Which economic factors could drive strong Trend Following performance

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

00:58 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes

02:34 - Macro recap from Niels

05:02 - Weekly review of returns

12:22 - Q1: Brett; How do you define a drawdown?

13:48 - Alan, what is your background and path to the CTA industry?

19:32 - Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged ‘Allocator’ series

20:49 - What inspired you to write your highly-regarded paper on Trend Following?

01:04:08 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL06: Finding True Value in the World of Volatility ft. Benn Eifert

5 januari 2022 | 69 min

On today’s episode, Hari Krishnan is joined today by Benn Eifert, to discuss running a volatility fund, the benefits that Benn gets from using Twitter, how to effectively serve clients as a volatility trader, the drawbacks of hedging via ETFs, monitoring market flows, the popularity of short-dated options, implied volatility versus realised volatility, how correlations change over time, balancing family-life with managing a fund, and the new normalisation of working from home.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

A behind the scenes look at running a volatility fund
How to use Twitter as an investor
Bringing value to clients as a volatility trader
Hedging via ETFs
Market flows
Options
Implied volatility
Finding a good work & life balance

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Benn on Twitter.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:20 - How did you end up running a Volatility fund?

06:39 - Why did you join a Vol fund instead of a Global Macro fund?

09:30 - What do you gain from being on Twitter?

11:50 - Explain some of the methods behind how you serve your clients

16:19 - What are some of the weaknesses of hedging via ETF products?

19:44 - Do you find a lot of value in monitoring the flows into various markets?

23:34 - Why is it people are so eager to sell shorter-dated options?

26:17 - How do you counter the argument that it’s a good idea to write calls against short positions?

30:05 - What are some of the issues with looking at implied volatility versus realised volatility?

33:13 - What challenges do you face as a Volatility pro, when it comes to the extreme moves up and down?

37:37 - What do you do when you expect large volatility but the direction is unknown?

40:30 - How would you react if you knew that there was a huge amount of open interest, 5% down in the S&P, with a few weeks to go?

42:52 - Do you have any thoughts on the recent dislocation between the VIX and the S&P 500?

46:04 - What are the changes in dispersion dynamics and implied correlations that you’ve noticed over the years?

55:03 - Is it fair to say that if you’re long enough Volatility, and there’s a large enough systemic shock, then you’re going to make money?

56:48 - Do you have anything to say about the 10-year note futures options surface? Are there persistent distortions there?

59:25 - If you see a distortion in the skew, how do you approach it?

01:02:56 - Balancing family life and managing a fund

01:05:12 - The recent legitimisation of working from home

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI173: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part Two ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich

2 januari 2022 | 93 min

Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The reasons for trading different markets
Why Trend Following firms should trade single stocks
The optimum amount of systems to run at the same time
Diversification across markets versus across systems
Skewness
How to define outliers

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:20 - Would you rather trade 100 markets with 1 system, using 10 different timeframes? or would you rather trade 50 markets, using 3 different systems, using 5 different timeframes?

08:33 - How much ‘positive skew’ do we need?

27:04 - Diversification as a means of risk control, versus as a method of finding outliers

36:14 - Defining outliers and some thoughts on the number of expected outliers per year

45:03 - Can be momentum traders be placed in the same category as Trend Followers?

48:13 - Should we care that bubbles exist, or just enjoy the profitable trends? Have the markets gotten any smarter over the years?

52:52 - How Trend Following and Systematic Investing narratives & terms have changed over the years

01:12:55 - A review of our best and worst markets to trade during 2021

01:16:10 - The lessons we learned from 2021, the biggest surprises, and our most regrettable decision from the year

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William Green

29 december 2021 | 103 min

What if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what it takes to be a truly successful investor, the benefits of deferred gratification, why being humble can lead to solid long-term returns, and the beauty of combining ‘man and machine’ to create a profitable, systematic approach to the markets.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The connection between philosophy and investing
Richard’s new book, ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’
The secrets behind the successful business model of Costco and Amazon
The benefits of deferred gratification
Why Ray Dalio likes to combine ‘man & machine’ and use systematic approaches
Why being humble can lead to great long-term returns
How to invest for the long-term, in a short-term world
The ingredients that made some of the most famous investors of all-time so reputable

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow William on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI172: ‘Trend Following + Nothing’ Part One ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich

25 december 2021 | 88 min

We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Some of the reasons for being a systematic investor
The case for Trend Following as the only strategy in your portfolio
Tips for effective diversification
Why you should be Hunting Outliers
How Trend Following performance might look like in the future
If and when you should override your trading rules
Staying ready for unexpected shocks in the markets
Gauging the effectiveness of adjustments to a system

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:42 - ‘Has classical Trend Following returned to peak performance’?

05:16 - How do you see the longer-term performance of Trend Following heading?

08:02 - Why not Trend Following as the main, or perhaps only, component of a portfolio?

28:01 - When should you manually override your trading system?

46:56 - How to setup a system to deal with unexpected volatility

01:03:49 - How to know if your research changes are actually improvements

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin Wigglesworth

22 december 2021 | 98 min

Passive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital. How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times Global Finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the financial crisis of 2008 affected investors' relationship to the markets, the innovators behind the rise of passive investing, Tesla’s entry into the S&P 500, and Robin’s thoughts on Trend Following strategies.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How journalism and financial media has changed in the last 15 years
Why the rise of passive investing plays such an important part of the history of finance
The big players behind the rise of passive investing
The first index fund
The rise of BlackRock
The merits of passive and active investing
How investors might react to a prolonged bear market
The benefits of quantitative investing strategies
Why systematic investing is often criticised so heavily
Some of Robins’ thoughts on Trend Following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Robin on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI171: Machine Learning - Pros & Cons ft. Hari Krishnan

20 december 2021 | 70 min

Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilizes machine learning investment techniques, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how to select signals for a smaller trading account.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The reasons for and against machine learning trading strategies
If any funds have successfully implemented machine learning
What defines machine learning
The history behind machine learning-based trading styles
How to manage smaller trading accounts, when it comes to signal selection
How to time the entry into trend following funds

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:25 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes

02:38 - Macro recap from Niels

04:52 - Weekly review of returns

09:58 - Q1; Daniel: How do I choose which signals to take when too many arise for a small account?

15:21 - Q2; Mervin: Do you have any advice for finding low-risk entry points into new TF funds?

25:31 - The history of machine learning and how to define it properly

44:24 - How can machine learning be profitable during rare market moves when the data sample size for these moves is so small?

48:41 - Which specific areas of Trend Following are more suited to Trend Following? How risky is it to blindly follow a machine learning strategy?

54:20 - Do you classify machine learning as a form of artificial intelligence?

55:55 - Have you come across any machine learning funds that have done well for a reasonably long period of time?

01:00:48 - Tell us about the recent experiment that Man Group carried out using Machine Learning to select a perfect (and sustainable) Christmas dinner?

01:04:44 - Announcement of future special Top Traders Unplugged episodes hosted by Hari Krishnan, as well as special episodes of the Systematic Investor featuring all the usual co-hosts over Christmas

01:06:18 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI170: 'Don’t Try This At Home' ft. Rob Carver

12 december 2021 | 83 min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How to effectively approach position-sizing
Some methods for investing in Trend Following CTAs
If 'buying the dip' in the S&P 500 is a good strategy
Portfolio optimisation
Trading lesser-known markets

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:12 - A big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:23 - Macro recap from Niels

04:24 - Weekly review of returns

09:12 - How do you approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade?

18:42 - Check out my new blog post: How to Invest with the Best

20:01 - Q1 & Q2; Abbey: Should I switch to a mean-reversion strategy when my Trend Following strategy is in a downtrend? Is buying the dip in Trend Following funds an accepted investment strategy, and can I also do this with the S&P 500?

32:28 - Rob, what was it like meeting Campbell Harvey for the first time?

42:08 - Static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts

01:09:41 - How does your backtest look before and after using the methodologies just described?

01:13:06 - What are some of the more obscure markets you can now trade with this newer approach, Rob?

01:20:11 - Benchmark performance update

01:21:09 - This week, we record the first of our 2-part end of year special, featuring all of my regular co-hosts on the Systematic Investor Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU117: Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob Carver

9 december 2021 | 78 min

How should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How to manage a portfolio through a crisis
The motivation behind writing his new book
Various methods of portfolio protection
Diversification within Trend Following systems
Volatility targeting and why it can be a powerful tool
The journey of volatility going from a measure to an input
Drawdowns as an important metric to monitor
Timing portfolio rebalances effectively
The 60 / 40 portfolio, diversification, and inflation

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Cam on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI169: Buying the Dip ft. Richard Brennan

5 december 2021 | 70 min

Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why volatility might not always mean that a model is risky
The best way to measure true risk
How to 'buy the dip'
What Richard thinks about risk
The relationship between volatility and risk
Convergent versus divergent trading

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:58 – Announcement of very special Systematic Investor episodes over Christmas featuring Niels, Jerry, Moritz, Rob & Rich together for the first time

02:23 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:57 – Macro recap from Niels

06:04 – Weekly review of performance

16:19 – Drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in the Trend Following strategies

23:10 – Check out our upcoming midweek-episode with guests Cam Harvey and Rob Carver

24:25 – How Richard thinks about ‘risk’

43:41 – The relationship between volatility and risk

59:20 – Convergence versus divergence

01:06:51 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU116: In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Steve Foerster

1 december 2021 | 67 min

If we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like? Well Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on how close Trend Following is to 'the Perfect Portfolio'.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Steve's journey to becoming a Professor of Finance and how he ended up co-authoring a book with Professor Andrew Lo
Some of the concepts from the legendary financial experts they interviewed for the book
How closely linked the academic world of finance really is
About some of the most important findings in investment research over the decades
About the "untold" story of an early 20th-century mathematician, Louis Bachelier
Harry Markowitz' story
What Eugene Fama's Perfect Portfolio looks like
About William Sharpe and his now famous 'Sharpe Ratio'
How the phrase 'beta' came about
How computers enabled researchers to access deeper insights into the world of investing
About the debate between active and passive investing
Whether volatility should still be considered as a measure of risk
About the progression of volatility data into today's investment models
About the story of Eugene Fama
How Steve views the question of 'what is the perfect portfolio?'
Whether Steve considers Trend Following investing as, essentially, a perfect portfolio

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI168: The Trading Secrets of Trend Followers ft. Mark Rzepczynski

28 november 2021 | 74 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest returns over time.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Overcoming the uncertainty in markets
When to override your system, if ever
Balancing between difference asset classes
The need to trade non-correlated assets
Why longer-term systems achieve higher win percentages

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:03 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:26 – Macro recap from Niels

03:50 – Weekly review of performance

09:12 – Q1; Glen: Can you give me some feedback on my equities Trend Following system?

18:00 – Discussion on Central bank tapering

42:15 – Clearing up some of the current discourse around inflation

55:19 – Discussion on overriding models

01:07:52 – Discussion on overriding models

01:11:46 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL05: Maintaining Liquidity & Cash Efficiency ft. Zed Francis

24 november 2021 | 69 min

Jason Buck is joined today by Zed Francis to discuss the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, achieving a negative a correlation to equities during market downturns, what Zed calls the ‘3 trading levers’, profiting from institutional volatility players, problems with some long-volatility strategies, when a discretionary approach is needed, how to adjust a portfolio if volatility is persisting, some thoughts on the VIX ETF, helping clients to achieve capital efficient accounts, maintaining liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff, and the deeper insight into the global macro landscape that being a volatility expert gives you.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The benefits of volatility strategies to a portfolio
How to profit from large stock market selloffs
Some of Zed Francis’s unique approaches to volatility trading
Profiting from institutional volatility traders
When to apply a discretionary approach
The VIX ETF
Helping clients to be cash efficient in their portfolios
The need for liquidity during large market moves

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:41 - Why should somebody add volatility or tail-risk strategies into their portfolio?

03:10 - Seeking a negative correlation to equities

06:16 - Can you explain what you call your ‘3 trading levers’?

08:11 - Can you breakdown your approach to combining ‘long gamma’ and ‘short Vega’?

13:40 - Do you aim to profit off institutional volatility sellers?

15:16 - Tell us about the short-vega side of your approach?

28:34 - The problems with some common long-volatility strategies?

36:24 - How do you think about the ratio between your long-gamma trades and your short-Vega trades?

38:02 - Do you want to explain your ‘Price is Right’ gameshow anology for long gamma strategies?

40:57 - Do you think that a discretionary approach is always needed at times?

50:27 - How do you adjust if volatility persists longer-term?

55:36 - What are your thoughts on the VIX?

57:50 - How to help clients to achieve capital efficient accounts?

59:37 - How do you maintain capital efficient overlays and also maintain liquidity for rebalancing during a selloff?

1:04:18 - Does being a volatility expert give you a deeper insight into the global macro landscape?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI167: The Road to Profits is Bumpy ft. Jerry Parker

22 november 2021 | 64 min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a broad universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns, but hidden risks, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

A systematic approach to trading single stocks
Why you should trade a broad universe of assets
Why the best thing to do is often the hardest thing to do as investors
Why volatility is our friend, especially when it's directional
How to manage dividends as a Trend Following trader
The best methods of diversification

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:41 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes

02:03 - Macro recap from Niels

03:10 - Weekly review of returns

06:44 - Q1; Robert: How does Jerry select his single stocks to trade?

16:27 - Q2; Brian: What does Jerry do with the dividends from the singles stocks he trades?

20:20 - Discussion on recent New York Times article, ‘The Risk-Return Trade-Off Is Phony’

31:34 - Trend Following and asset selection

37:40 - Why the right thing to do is often the hardest thing to do

45:36 - The need for asymmetry rather than low-volatility

48:48 - Diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying TF look-back periods

57:57 - How Trend Following thrives during inflationary environments

01:01:10 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL04: Profiting from Short-Term Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta

18 november 2021 | 75 min

Special guest, Bastian Bolesta, joins Jason Buck today to discuss why volatility strategies should be added to our portfolios, how to keep improving as a trader while not over-optimising your systems, how recent large equity selloffs have affected Bastian’s approach to the markets, the average duration of his long volatility trades, how to weight recent data versus long-term data, trading VIX contracts intra-day, shorter-term Trend Following, momentum trading, mean-reversion strategies, and the cash efficiency of intraday models.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why we should be invested in volatility strategies
Improving over time but not over-tinkering
How much markets may have changed in recent years
The average duration of volatility trades
Recent data versus long-term data
Shorter-term Trend Following
The benefits of cash-efficiency within intraday models

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:09 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?

04:09 - How do you overcome the problem of getting better but not wanting to tinker too much?

11:03 - How has recent market behaviour affected your approach to volatility trading?

22:05 - What is the average duration of your long volatility trades?

28:02 - How do you weight recent data versus long-term data?

31:07 - How do you look at trading intra-day VIX contracts?

37:39 - What gave you the confidence to be able to execute short-term Trend Following?

48:58 - How do you approach momentum trading?

56:16 - Why do you take some of the long-sided trades during equity selloffs?

01:01:38 - Tell us about the mean-reverting products you deal with?

01:07:52 - Talk to us about the cash efficiency of intraday strategies

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI166: Riding the Waves of Volatility ft. Hari Krishnan

14 november 2021 | 68 min

We’re joined by Hari Krishnan today, to discuss the ways in which Volatility strategies can complement Trend Following as a source of portfolio protection, how to manage expectations of investors, some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020, how to best protect yourself from large market selloffs, how to allocate between Trend Following and Volatility across different timeframes, and the possible effects of sustained inflation may have on volatility strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Complementing Trend Following portfolios with Volatility strategies
Maintaining composure during different market environments
The sharp selloffs of 2018 and 2020
Sound approaches for re-allocating money at appropriate times
The resilience of Trend Following
Volatility strategies during long periods of sustained inflation

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:28 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes

02:38 - Macro recap from Niels

05:11 - Weekly review of returns

11:09 - The ways in which Volatility strategies complement a Trend Following portfolio

21:33 - Managing investors’ expectations

27:57 - Some experiences and thoughts from the large volatility events of 2018 and 2020

29:44 - Look out for Hari’s new book

30:34 - How to protect yourself from large market selloffs

42:17 - How to allocate between different strategies across different timeframes

44:35 - The relative strength of Trend Following during flash crashes

54:55 - How the landscape and returns dispersion for volatility strategies looks like in 2021

58:06 - The possible effects of sustained inflation on volatility strategies

01:05:28 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL03: The Evolution of the VIX ft. Stefan Wintner

10 november 2021 | 75 min

In today’s episode, Jason Buck is joined by Stefan Wintner of DUNN Capital, to discuss volatility as an asset class, the evolution of the VIX from its inception until now, some of the mechanics behind the VIX, the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500, some thoughts on ‘volatility relative-value’ trading, the reliability of the VVIX, building and running models during different market environments, thoughts on kurtosis and skew, and volatility as a necessary component for a large Trend Following firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Volatility as an asset class of its own
The journey of the VIX from its early days until now
Analysing the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500
What’s known as volatility relative-value trading
The usefulness of the VVIX
Operating models during different market and economic environments
Kurtosis and skew
The need for Volatility strategies as part of a diversified investment portfolio

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:05 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?

04:48 - Do you consider Volatility to be an asset class of its own?

05:58 - What was it like during the early days of the VIX market?

08:28 - What is the VIX, and what is the calculation that goes into the VIX?

14:07 - Tell us a little bit about the relationship between the VIX and S&P 500

19:37 - How does volatility risk premium relate to other datasets you use?

25:03 - What is ‘volatility relative-value’ trading?

27:37 - How do you think about the ratio that you combine between the S&P 500 & the VIX?

30:31 - Is it true that if you see a spike in the VIX, you’ll look to take advantage via the front-month volatility in that spike?

33:29 - Do you think VVIX is a good measure for the volatility of volatility?

35:09 - How do you use options in a creative way in your portfolio?

37:22 - How do you identify and think about possible mispricings in the market?

40:40 - Do you try to track both the normal price and OTC prices?

42:00 - How do you approach building & running volatility models during different market environments?

47:22 - Describe what volatility traders experienced during the ‘volmaggedon’ of February 2018

55:06 - How did you trade through the ‘known risks’ 2020 election?

59:15 - How much can you rely on market history as a predictor for the future?

01:02:49 - Is it true you’re likely to experience long periods of flat to negative performance while waiting for those huge, profitable moves in volatility?

01:06:09 - How do you think about kurtosis and skew, and how they relate to other strategies?

01:08:56 - Do you view what you do as a necessary component of a large Trend Following firm?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI165: Responsible Investing as a Trend Follower ft. Rob Carver

7 november 2021 | 86 min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The new credibility of cryptocurrencies
Scaling into positions using various methods
ESG investing as a Trend Following investor
How to select the optimum markets to trade
Trading single stocks
Embracing creativity as a systematic investor

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:14 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes

03:12 - Macro recap from Niels

06:45 - Weekly review of returns

15:04 - Niels: Has your opinion of cryptocurrencies changed since the launch of the new Bitcoin futures ETF was announced?

20:04 - Q1; Adam: What is your advice for scaling into positions?

28:18 - Q2; Brendan: Do Bitcoin cash-settled futures create a synthetic Bitcoin supply?

36:08 - How should futures traders approach climate change?

49:03 - Choosing which markets to trade

01:04:05 - Q3 & Q4; Michael: What are the benefits and drawbacks to trading single stocks? How do you come up with new ideas?

01:16:45 - Factor investing and thoughts on longer-term momentum strategies

01:21:46 - Benchmark performance update

01:23:02 - Next week, special guest Hari Krishnan joins us on the show

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL02: Past, Present, & Future Volatility ft. Noel Smith

2 november 2021 | 74 min

Today Jason Buck is joined by Noel Smith in the second of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of ensemble investing, the predictability of market volatility, how certain market environments fool investors into thinking they are better than they really are, allocating between different strategies during different market environments, why nothing beats having ‘skin in the game’, balancing judgement calls versus algorithmic calls, pairs-trading VIX & bonds, determining when an asset is cheap or overpriced, and some thoughts on what might happen if markets enter a ‘stagflationary’ environment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Ensemble investing and its benefits
Whether market volatility can be predicted ahead of time
The ways in which the markets can catch investors off-guard
‘Dialling’ into and out of strategies
How Noel’s experience in prop trading and pit trading has helped him today
Finding the balance between judgement calls and algorithmic signals
Noel’s VIX and bonds pairs trade
Assessing the current real value of an asset
How to approach investing during a ‘stagflationary’ environment

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

Follow Noel on Twitter, LinkedIn, and via his website.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:06 - Why should somebody add volatility strategies into their portfolio?

03:20 - Do you think that volatility is quite predictable around benign market periods?

04:12 - How do you apply your prop trading background to volatility strategies in general?

05:13 - Did the days of pit trading leaving a big impression on you?

06:28 - Why use ensembles?

07:33 - How do you allocate between strategies during different macro environments?

09:37 - How do you balance judgement calls versus algorithmic calls?

11:38 - How do you think about the timing of adding and removing volatility protection?

15:01 - Where did you come with the idea to pairs trade VIX and bonds?

19:28 - Is there a volatility risk premium?

21:14 - Tell us a little more about your ‘vol-arb’ strategy?

26:28 - How are you determining if something is cheap or overpriced?

27:53 - Do you put more weight on liquidity flow data as opposed to other fundamental data?

30:32 - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?

34:30 - Can you describe your ‘dispersion’ strategy and elaborate on dispersion trades for those who haven’t heard them?

39:33 - How do you think about past, present and future volatility?

41:46 - How do you approach correlations across different timeframes?

43:24 - Dispersion trades seem to go in and out of fashion, do you feel that your strategies run dispersion trades when they’re popular only?

46:38 - Do you dial into and out of strategies rather than switching allocations?

48:11 - Tell us more about the ‘bond vol-arb’ strategy

51:01 - Tell us more about the ‘macro-bats’ strategy

57:42 - What do you think will happen if markets enter a stagflationary environment?

01:03:39 - How would you combine your ensemble investments into a wider portfolio?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI164: Compounding - The 8th Wonder of the World ft. Richard Brennan

31 oktober 2021 | 66 min

This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How to stay on the right side of the effects of compounding
How many strategies can be limited by the make-up of their previous versions
The profitable & negative correlation of Trend Following to equities when stocks are falling
The need to zoom-out when judging performance
The terms 'ergodicity' and 'path dependency'

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:37 – A Thank you to Shane, our website developer, for his great work in creating the new Top Traders Unplugged website. We hope you all enjoy the new user interface

02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

03:02 – Macro recap from Niels

04:34 – Weekly review of performance

12:04 – Making money to make money, and some insights on the compounding returns

40:50 – How to judge different strategies accurately

44:04 – Explaining the term ‘ergodicity’

52:17 – The diversifying features of Trend Following and their negative correlation to stocks during market downturns

01:01:24 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

VOL01: The New Nature of Stock Market Movements ft. Hari Krishnan

26 oktober 2021 | 72 min

Today Jason Buck is joined by Hari Krishnan in the first of our series on Volatility. Topics discussed include: the benefits of adding volatility strategies to your portfolio, why it can pay to avoid hedging when the crowd is already doing so, explaining the 'Put slingshot', how markets are different today from decades ago, protection against tail-risk, the psychology behind large markets sell-offs, and some thoughts on the effects of leverage on the markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The benefits of tail-risk hedges / adding volatility hedges to your portfolio
The importance of avoiding group think (in hedging)
Some thoughts on what is known as the ‘Put slingshot’
The new nature of stock market movements
The repricing of risk during fast downturns
Tail-risk protection versus Trend Following
How tail-risk protection can complement an existing allocation to Trend Following
Some of the psychology and mechanisms behind large and sharp market moves
How positioning and leverage end up creating challenging markets to trade in

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:59 - Why should somebody include volatility or tail risk into their portfolio?

04:35 - Do you think rolling option puts is a good hedging strategy?

07:47 - The tradeoffs between near-term and long-term option pricing

09:03 - Can you explain the differences between ‘Gamma’ and ‘Vega’ options profiles?

10:15 - What are your thoughts on rolling options?

15:05 - How do you think about the timing of adding and removing volatility protection?

18:27 - In your book you mention the ‘Sombrero Trade’, can you describe what this is?

21:54 - How risk becomes repriced during sharp selloffs

25:04 - Does tail-risk protection help long-term Trend Followers?

25:04 - Are you looking out for inflection points such as in March 2020, where everybody ran for the exits at the same time?

43:15 - What are your thoughts on the huge amounts of passive inflows to the markets and the inelasticity it creates?

49:08 - What about the those who say the Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed put’) is the ultimate protection and therefore no other protection is needed?

54:10 - How do you think about those funds who use ‘vol targeting’?

01:01:12 - How do you think about ETFs when it comes to ‘whales’ positioning?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI163: The Importance of Investment Narratives ft. Mark Rzepczynski

23 oktober 2021 | 79 min

This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The future of Bitcoin
How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients
Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers
Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades
The private equity world compared with systematic investing

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:49 – Macro recap from Niels

04:52 – Weekly review of performance

12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter

52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry

55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves easier to good narratives

01:06:55 – Some thoughts on the likelihood of upcoming stagflation

01:13:01 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:28 – Announcement of new and updated version of the Top Traders Unplugged website which is on the way, as well as a new series on the topic of volatility, hosted by recent guest, Jason Buck

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI162: Discussing The New Bitcoin Futures ETF ft. Moritz Seibert

17 oktober 2021 | 78 min

We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam
The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF
How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains
Our best performing assets of the year so far
How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison
Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts

02:59 - Macro recap from Niels

05:51 - Weekly review of returns

11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you?

12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets?

24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false?

29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or false?

33:21 - Niels: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities, true or false?

34:32 - Niels: Volume and open interest are as important as price action, true or false?

36:16 - Niels: A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses, true or false?

37:14 - Niels: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate a trade, true or false?

38:48 - Niels: It’s better to be an expert in one market, rather than try to trade ten or more markets, true or false?

40:10 - Niels: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life, true or false?

40:56 - Niels: A gap-up is a good place to initiate, if an uptrend has started, true or false?

42:07 - Niels: All speculators die broke, true or false?

43:05 - Thoughts on the new Pro Shares Bitcoin ETF launching soon

45:58 - Niels: How did your model react to the recent crypto fall in prices, and do you think crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term trend following strategies?

45:58 - Niels: How do you think the average crypto expert views the global macro landscape?

55:58 - The drive towards ESG investing and its knock-on effects to current supply chains

01:15:12 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft. Jerry Parker

9 oktober 2021 | 62 min

Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Favouring long or short positions
How you can go broke taking small profits
Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’
The importance of down-time and vacations
Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd
System diversification
Why you should trade small
The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today
Avoiding trades due to gaps in price

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:19 - I share a hugely important story to my family, as we mark the 10-year anniversary of my son's Sudden Cardiac Arrest and our KidsHeart charity welcomes your support. For further information, contact us via: [email protected]

08:17 - Weekly review of returns

12:00 - Jerry retakes the Original Entrance Exam for the Turtle Program:

13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false?

14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false?

14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false?

16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false?

16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?

16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?

17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false?

17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false?

17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false?

19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false?

20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue after a substantial uptrend. True or false?

21:02 - Question 12: The majority of traders are always wrong. True or false?

21:29 - Question 13: Trading bigger is an overall handicap on one’s trading performance. True or false?

21:57 - Question 14: Larger traders can muscle markets to their advantage. True or false?

22:15 - Question 15: Vacations are important for traders to keep the proper perspective. True or false?

23:16 - Question 16: Under-trading is almost never a problem. True or false?

23:47 - Question 17: Ideally, average profits should be about 3 or 4 times average losers . True or false?

24:07 - Question 18: Traders should be willing to let winners turn into losses . True or false?

24:45 - Question 19: A very high percentage of trades should be profits. True or false?

25:02 - Question 20: A trader should like to take losses. True or false?

25:53 - Question 21: It is especially relevant when the market is higher than it’s been in 4 and 13 weeks. True or false?

26:19 - Question 22: Needing and wanting money are good motivators for good trading. True or false?

26:36 - Question 23: Ones natural inclinations are good guides to decision making in trading. True or false?

28:01 - Question 24: Luck is an ingredient for successful trading in the long run. True or false?

28:46 - Question 25: When you’re Long, limit up is a good place to take a profit. True or false?

29:16 - Question 26: It takes money to make money. True or false?

30:21 - Question 27: It’s good to follow hunches in trading. True or false?

30:32 - Question 28: There are players in each market one should not trade against. True or false?

30:49 - Question 29: All speculators die broke. True or false?

31:51 - Question 30: The market can be understood better through social psychology rather than economics. True or false?

32:36 - Question 31: Taking a loss should be a difficult decision for traders. True or false?

32:55 - Question 32: After a big profit the next Trend Following trade is likely to be a loss. True or false?

33:32 - Question 33: Trends are not likely to persist. True or false?

34:55 - Question 34: Almost all information about a commodity is at least a little useful in helping to make decisions. True or false?

35:39 - Question 35: It’s better to be an expert in one market rather than try to trade 10 or more markets. True or false?

36:20 - Question 36: In a winning streak, total risk should rise dramatically. True or false?

36:57 - Question 37: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities. True or false?

38:04 - Question 38: It’s important to know how much you are ahead or behind during a trading session. True or false?

38:33 - Question 39: A losing month is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false?

38:47 - Question 40: A losing week is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false?

38:55 - Question 41: The big money in trading is made when one can get long at the lows after a big downtrend. True or false?

39:10 - Question 42: It’s good to average down when buying. True or false?

39:28 - Question 43: After a long trend, the market requires more consolidation before a new trend starts. True or false?

40:43 - Question 44: It’s important to know what to do if trading commodities doesn’t succeed. True or false?

41:44 - Question 45: It’s not helpful to watch every quote in the market one trades. True or false?

42:32 - Question 46: It’s a good idea to put on or take a position all at once. True or false?

42:49 - Question 47: Diversification in commodities is always better than being in one or two markets. True or false?

43:07 - Question 48: If today’s profit or loss makes a significant difference to your net worth you’re over-trading. True or false?

43:40 - Question 49: A trader learns more from his losses than from his profits. True or false?

44:32 - Question 50: Except for commission and brokerage fees, execution costs for entering orders are minimal over the course of a year. True or false?

45:03 - Question 51: It’s easier to trade well than to trade poorly. True or false?

45:25 - Question 52: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life. True or false?

46:10 - Question 53: Uptrends end when everyone gets bearish. True or false?

46:25 - Question 54: The more bullish news you hear, the less likely a market is break out to the upside. True or false?

47:11 - Question 55: For an off-floor trader, a long-term trade ought to last 3 or 4 weeks or less. True or false?

47:40 - Question 56: Others opinions of the markets are good to follow. True or false?

47:49 - Question 57: Volume and open interest are as important as price action. True or false?

48:39 - Question 58: Daily strength and weakness is a good guide for liquidating long term positions with big profits. True or false?

49:28 - Question 59: Off-floor traders should spread different markets of different market groups. True or false?

49:48 - Question 60: The more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue in the beginning of a trend. True or false?

50:11 - Question 61: Off-floor traders should not spread the same delivery month across different commodities. True or false?

50:20 - Question 62: Buying dips and selling rallies is a good strategy. True or false?

51:24 - Question 63: It’s important to take a profit most of the time. True or false?

52:04 - Niels: What one or two questions would you add to this test today?

55:53 - Jerry’s score results

55:57 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft. Rob Carver

3 oktober 2021 | 64 min

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
Adding parameters to a system

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes

03:03 - Macro recap from Niels

05:43 - Weekly review of returns

12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks

21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system

26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?

34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?

38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)

46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage

55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022

59:36 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft. Richard Brennan

25 september 2021 | 68 min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
How investment terms can often create communication barriers
Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends:

https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

02:25 – Macro recap from Niels

04:10 – Weekly review of performance

11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager

19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’

42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ & ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on

56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’

01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio

01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft. Mark Rzepczynski

18 september 2021 | 91 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.

You can find Mark’s latest writings here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
How to spot future star performers in advance
Unconventional approaches to market correlations
The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
Why investors tend to copy their peers
Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen

04:28 – Macro recap from Niels

06:15 – Weekly review of performance

11:21 – Q1, Q2 & Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?

27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon

57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process

01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft. Jerry Parker

12 september 2021 | 66 min

Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The case for longer-term strategies
Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
How to prevent cyber attacks
Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

02:26 - Macro recap from Niels

04:43 - Weekly review of returns

15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting

23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them

32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks

37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging?

41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules

44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise

47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon

49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic

56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification

01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft. Moritz Seibert

5 september 2021 | 65 min

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
Some good measures for monitoring risk
Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
How to approach negative interest rates with your broker

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts

03:21 - Macro recap from Niels

05:38 - Weekly review of returns

18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests

26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?

41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?

45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?

47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?

51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?

57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets

01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI155: How to Create the Perfect Backtest ft. Richard Brennan

28 augusti 2021 | 89 min

This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following
Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live
The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers
Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop
What information to look for in a backtest
How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?)

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

03:47 – Macro recap from Niels

05:57 – Weekly review of performance

10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers

13:34 – Q1; Louis: Do you recommend starting a new model with lower leverage, so that it has time to adjust to the markets?

20:02 – Q2; Aaron: If you had to choose a different strategy to complement your main Trend Following strategy, which one would you choose, and why?

25:03 – Q3; Graham: How much margin do you use on different instruments? What total portfolio risk-to-stop do you recommend?

35:23 – ‘The good, the bad, and the ugly’ of backtesting

52:50 – How to make a backtest as objective and robust as possible

01:25:49 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI154: Defining 'Outliers' from a Trend Follower's Perspective ft. Richard Brennan

21 augusti 2021 | 65 min

Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs
How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers'
The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system
Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification'
Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes
Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions
Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared'

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

02:31 – Macro recap from Niels

11:17 – Weekly review of performance

17:10 – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution?

22:32 – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers?

32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the terms ’non-linearity squared' and ‘pyramiding’

01:02:36 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI153: Being Aware of Known & Unknown Risks ft. Mark Rzepczynski

14 augusti 2021 | 71 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of
How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system
The true definitions of liquidity
Futures markets as the most liquid in the world
Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important
The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement
Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

02:57 – Macro recap from Niels

04:37 – Weekly review of performance

09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement

18:11 – The different types of liquidity

29:50 – How to measure a market’s true liquidity

01:01:37 – Integrating ESG into Trend Following

01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI152: Love Your Rules, But Not Your Positions ft. Jerry Parker

7 augusti 2021 | 76 min

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures
Thoughts on autocorrelation
The benefits of trading a wide range of markets
How over-optimisation can result in underperformance
Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental
Why your rules are more important than any one position
How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:11 - Macro recap from Niels

04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum

08:34 - Weekly review of returns

10:21 - Where does the edge in Trend Following really come from?

17:13 - Market selection and utilising auto-correlation

26:40 - Q1; Mark: What are some of the things about Systematic Trading that you can only learn from experience?

34:48 - Q2; Stacius: When do you know that a strategy is robust, without doing a backtest?

38:19 - Jerry’s favourite measurement of risk-to-reward

51:21 - ‘Loose pants fit everyone’

53:51 - Deciding whether to trade in the Chinese futures markets

55:56 - CTAs utilising ETFs

01:02:05 - The benefits of being an amazing ‘quitter’

01:05:29 - Trend Following performance during different interest-rate periods

01:07:22 - Winton’s positive recent positive comments on Trend Following

01:08:57 - Transtrend’s recent article on volatility and how it should affect your models

01:12:59 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert

31 juli 2021 | 61 min

Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How effective Backtests can be
Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
Ethereum futures
Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:44 - Macro recap from Niels

04:41 - Weekly review of returns

10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models

13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?

29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?

36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak?

44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI?

49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts

58:48 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI150: Extracting Edges from the Market ft. Richard Brennan

24 juli 2021 | 67 min

This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy
How to profit across multiple timeframes
How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods
Average win rate versus average loss rate
Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors
Trailing stops and risk management
How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

02:18 – Macro recap from Niels

04:23 – Weekly review of performance

10:24 – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules?

12:40 – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I manage risk from unrealised profits & losses?

23:35 – Extracting an edge from markets

42:22 – Analysing win/loss rates

52:00 – Stops and position sizing

56:42 – Benchmark performance update

57:45 – Some big announcements

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI149: Model Anxiety & Algorithm Aversion ft. Mark Rzepczynski

18 juli 2021 | 68 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategies
How to perceive momentum data
Why the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend Followers
Embracing simplicity
The need to avoid too many filters in your system
How much should be risked per trade

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

03:02 – Macro recap from Niels

04:48 – Weekly review of performance

11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?

24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?

28:52 – Q3; John: Is the 2% rule still a popular and good risk-per-trade today?

35:56 – Q4; Mark: Would you ever not take a trade because it seems so absurd logically?

40:11 – Q5; Frederick: Do you think people are underinvested in CTAs because they want to feel in more ‘in control’ than a systematic approach would allow them to?

45:34 – The calculus of business cycles

48:51 – Narrative ambiguity versus model clarity

50:53 – How to handle depreciating cash

54:04 – The power of weather shocks

58:01 – Do we need inflation futures?

59:58 – Curve play in bonds

01:02:11 – Hayek co-ordination problem and recovery

01:04:57 – Benchmark performance update

01:05:57 – Next week we have Richard Brennan joining us on the show, so send in your questions

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI148: The Importance of Capturing A Few Large Trends ft. Jerry Parker

11 juli 2021 | 69 min

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes

02:02 - Macro recap from Niels

12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?

31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?

40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?

47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns

50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance

58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors

01:01:04 - Diversification versus concentration

01:05:07 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI147: The Perfect Exit Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

4 juli 2021 | 65 min

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible
Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades
How to engage in related to your investment approach
Over complicating a trading strategy
Acceptable margin amounts
Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:28 - Macro recap from Niels

03:53 - Weekly review of returns

11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber

14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?

29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?

34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?

41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use?

42:30 - Q6, Q7 & Q8; Babek: Should you trade all markets using the same approach? How do you deal with downside risks once a large profitable uptrend is established? Should position size be increased if the number of open trades is less than the maximum?

01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI146: The Trend Following Mindset ft. Rob Carver

28 juni 2021 | 90 min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.

You can read some of Rob’s work here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Trend Following as a solution to rising inflation
The major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing money
Trend Following on ETFs
Predicting future returns using current risk exposure
Retail traders versus professional money managers

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI145: The 3 D's of Inflation ft. Mark Rzepczynski

20 juni 2021 | 78 min

Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fears
How price action incorporates all narratives
Trend Following on options
The extra costs of short-term trading
Single stocks versus index futures
If Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following system
Mark's '3 D's' of inflation

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes

02:32 – Macro recap from Niels

06:19 – Weekly review of performance

16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?

31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?

35:33 – Q3; Abishek: How does Technical Analysis relate to Trend Following?

39:43 – Predicting market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements

56:26 – How price moves change narratives and not the other way around

01:00:16 – The ‘Three D’s’ of inflation

01:05:33 – When is the best time to invest in Trend Following?

01:11:29 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: The Half Life of Facts by Samuel Arbesman and The Premonition by Michael Lewis

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI144: Why Single Stocks Should Matter to CTAs ft. Jerry Parker

13 juni 2021 | 82 min

Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:29 - Macro recap from Niels

08:01 - Weekly review of returns and the narrative change around Bitcoin

19:01 - Q1; Omar: What books do you recommend for Trend Following educational material?

27:52 - Q2; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?

35:40 - Q3; Mark: Could Chesapeake and Dunn Capital trade as an ETF to allow more people exposure to their strategies?

44:22 - Q4; Vinicius: What are your thoughts about Trend Following on single stocks?

50:08 - Q5; Antonio: Should we be less diversified and more concentrated with our trades?

01:03:39 - Why having rules isn’t enough to justify a robust trading system

01:15:24 - Thoughts on measuring skew

01:19:05 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI143: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin? ft. Eric Crittenden

7 juni 2021 | 86 min

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolio
The recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policy
Eric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crash
The varying speeds of Trend Following
Why low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't risky
Overcoming behavioural biases
Managed futures as a great benefit to investor's portfolios
The flight out of fixed income
Why crypto investors could benefit from Trend Following
Changing the narrative around Trend Following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:59 - Macro recap from Niels

03:22 - Weekly review of returns

10:41 - What could Trend Following bring to the crypto space?

16:36 - How can CTAs change the narrative around investing so that they are included in the picture at all times, instead of just when investors are panicking?

24:50 - Q1; Leonie: What goals can I set as an independent Trend Following trader?

30:13 - Q2, Q3 & Q4; James: How do you size positions across different speeds of systems? How much in percentage terms should a retail investor allocate to Trend Following strategies? Can you recommend a CTA comparison website?

33:16 - Q5; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?

36:30 - Trend Following reframed for better understanding

48:04 - Trend Following misunderstood

59:48 - Why Trend Following on only a single asset class often leads to failure

01:04:17 - Economic and social similarities between today and the 1960s

01:07:37 - The fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio

01:16:54 - How managed futures can help portfolios

01:23:16 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU115: Building a Bulletproof Portfolio with Jason Buck of Mutiny Fund

1 juni 2021 | 78 min

What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Jason got to where he is today
If the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changed
Why CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020
The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investing
The opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealth
Why a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomaly
Why the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realise
What a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks like
The history of long-volatility assets
The term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clients
How to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risks
Whether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approach
Why the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement tool
How much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managers
How to approach position sizing with black swan events in mind
Some of the common investor mistakes
How to choose between different Trend Following managers
How to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environments
If less-liquid assets can be safely incorporated into a portfolio
How to analyse backtests properly
If Jason uses Gold and Bitcoin in his long-volatility strategies
What keeps Jason up at night in terms of risks

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on Twitter

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI142: How Decentralised Is Bitcoin Really? ft. Rob Carver

30 maj 2021 | 89 min

Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

If Bitcoin is really as decentralised as it's reputed to be
Adjusting your system on an individual trade basis
What to do with your trading profits
Defending against inflation
Short-term Trend Following versus long-term Trend Following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:33 - Macro recap from Niels

04:02 - Weekly review of returns

12:15 - Rob’s decision to trade Bitcoin futures

21:28 - Why Bitcoin may not be so decentralised

38:05 - Q1; Dan: Do you think fitting by instrument makes sense for intraday Trend Following?

48:43 - Q2; John: Why does Rob only allocate part of his profits back into his portfolio?

57:19 - Q3; Peewee: If Rob could only trade 5 or 6 futures markets, which ones would he pick?

01:02:54 - Q4; Saed: Do you prefer keeping position size constant across all trades, or adjusting according to volatility?

01:06:38 - Financial Times article: ‘How to Defend Against Inflation’

01:13:47 - Check out the new episode from the Top Traders Unplugged series, coming out soon

01:14:22 - Article from FactorResearch: ‘Short vs Long-Term Trend Following’

01:20:26 - Benchmark performance update

01:21:27 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Mark Rzepcynski's blog post on commodity prices during inflationary periods, Nikhil Shamapant on the Hidden Forces Podcast & Josh Rogin on the Joe Rogan Podcast

01:26:54 - Next week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI141: Aligning 'Operation Tempo' with your Trading Personality ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

23 maj 2021 | 76 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

China's recent banning of Bitcoin trading and mining
The Federal Reserve's announcement of a possible new digital currency
Inflation and its effects on trading
The psychology around drawdowns
Price signals and how they can be distorted by inflation
Matching what Mark terms as 'Operation Tempo' with your personality

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:11 – Macro recap from Niels

05:49 – Weekly review of performance

11:00 – Further discussion on our recent talking point of discretionary versus systematic, including some comments from Top Traders Unplugged community member, Danny

13:38 – Q1; Fernando: Does it get easier with time and experience, to endure drawdowns?

22:40 – Some of the issues around inflation and how that might affect trading

44:30 – Momentum crashes and decision-clustering

57:35 – The importance of matching your personality to the timeframes you trade

01:04:10 – When is the best time to invest in Trend Following?

01:11:28 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:30 - Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring David Rosenberg

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker

16 maj 2021 | 72 min

Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Why you should prioritise price over any other form of data
How bad markets for the average investor is often lucrative for Trend Followers
How mainstream attention to market trends usually means they're about to end
Why money managers shouldn't always try to stand out too much
The increasing rarity of classical Trend Following CTAs
How to embrace the mentality of cutting losses

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:55 - Macro recap from Niels

06:07 - Weekly review of returns

13:34 - Stanley Druckenmiller’s recent interview criticising the Federal Reserve

16:17 - Q1 & Q2; Shibojet: What are your thoughts about a dynamic trading system that focuses more on what’s working over any given time-period, rather than a static trading system with rigid criteria? Why don’t Trend Followers trade cash equities?

39:32 - Q3; Aldo: Is it worth trading a small account using micro-futures? What are your thoughts on pyramiding into positions?

50:51 - Conquering the fear of losses

53:45 - How many markets should we trade?

01:06:58 - Benchmark performance update

01:07:56 - CBOE announce new Bond futures

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI139: How to Beat Unpredictable Markets ft. Moritz Seibert

9 maj 2021 | 64 min

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Berkshire Hathaways's recent annual general meeting
The likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
How to overcome the unpredictable nature of markets
Thoughts on De-Fi
Increasing sustainability requirements of the investment industry
The newer, smaller futures contracts being listed on the CME
Trend Following on cryptocurrencies

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:21 - Macro recap from Niels

02:49 - Weekly review of returns

11:02 - The Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting

26:24 - Why Lumber prices are on the rise

32:44 - New and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME

36:50 - Ethereum futures

45:46 - Continued outflows from Cathy Wood’s ARKK innovation ETF

46:42 - Q1; John: What is your methodology for selecting which contract month to trade, and when to roll?

52:46 - Q2; Brian: What topics, articles, blogs, podcasts or books do you recommend for somebody who wants to learn about cryptocurrencies as fast and easy as possible?

59:28 - Benchmark performance update

01:00:11 - Recommended listening or reading this week: 'Why the Price of Lumber Has Soared' on the Odd Lots Podcast and Michael Lewis on the Masters in Business Podcast and Tom Basso on Trend Following Radio

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI138: The 'Holy Trinity' of Security Selection ft. Rob Carver

3 maj 2021 | 73 min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Which stocks to select for a profitable Trend Following system
Rob's 'Holy Trinity' for selecting securities
The ripple effects of large funds who make large and risky bets
The most profitable holding periods in Trend Following systems
'Caveman-style' Trend Following
How to hedge against inflation
Trend Following's success in rising interest-rate environments
Tesla's recent earnings

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:36 - Macro recap from Niels

04:27 - Weekly review of returns

09:38 - Discussion on Tesla’s recent earnings

25:13 - Q1; Matt via the Top Traders Unplugged free voicemail service: How do you select single stocks as a Trend Follower?

35:02 - Q2; Alfred: Does backwardation lead to price rallies?

41:10 - The fund who are now nicknamed ‘Gamma Hammer’ for betting on tranquil markets

48:07 - Q3; Riccardo: What does Rob think about mean reversion strategies, and how they can be complimented with Trend Following? What are your thoughts on Systematic Macro strategies, and how do they compare with Trend Following?

57:16 - Q4; Michael: How long would it take to convert a system made in Microsoft Excel, to Python?

01:00:20 - Q5; James: What do you think about exiting winning trades in stages, rather than at once?

01:06:08 - Hedging against inflation

01:11:06 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI137: Can AI Trading Be Better Than Classical Methods? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

25 april 2021 | 81 min

Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

How a Trend Following approach allows safer access to risky markets
The differences between Systematic Trading based on macro data versus based on price-only
How a top trader should efficiently process new data
Modern AI-based Trend Following versus classical Trend Following
Whether the biggest hedge funds in the world fall victim of being too greedy for AUM
Why you should avoid 'timing the market'
The possible secrets of success behind Dunn Capital's near 50-year track record

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:00 – Macro recap from Niels

08:46 – Weekly review of performance

13:28 – Swedish systematic macro-fund, IPM, closes after losing $4billion during the pandemic

28:37 – New style Trend Following with machine learning versus classical Trend Following

53:54 – Some of the reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record

01:05:03 – Q1 Raymond: What are some good methods for market selection, other than liquidity?

01:08:35 – Q2; Dirk: Have you found significant differences between volatility-based position-sizing and a one-size-fits-all approach?

01:17:10 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI136: When Investments Become A Religion ft. Jerry Parker

18 april 2021 | 72 min

Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The perils of becoming 'religious' about our investments
Coinbase's recent stock market listing
Position sizing using historical volatility
Buy & Hold versus Trend Following over long-term look back periods
Mean Reversion trading versus Trend-based trading
The infamous Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:36 - Macro recap from Niels

04:37 - Weekly review of returns

09:37 - A question for Jerry, from Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?

24:44 - ‘Trend Strength’ signals, what they are, and if you should use them

26:52 - Whether Trend Followers do actually make market predictions

35:49 - A question for Jerry from Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?

40:27 - Meb Faber’s recent poll on how much should be allocated to Trend Following

48:31 - Q1; Danny: How do you find new positions to trade?

53:09 - Q2; Mathew: How do you define a longer-term timeframe?

01:00:44 - Performance recap

01:01:50 - Jerry asks Niels to discuss the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI135: WHY Trend Following is the Safest Investment Strategy ft. Moritz Seibert

11 april 2021 | 77 min

Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Over-leveraged hedge funds showing little regard for risk
What stage of the bull market in stocks we might be in
The rise in commodity prices
Trading in the Chinese commodity markets
The possible risks of trading in emerging markets
Crypto futures and how they differ from more traditional futures markets
Trend Following combined with other investment strategies for a complete portfolio
call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:19 - Macro recap from Niels

05:22 - Weekly review of returns

12:48 - Quant trading firms being ready to pounce on a possible upcoming commodity boom, especially in China

31:05 - The departure of some CTAs away from major exchanges, and the fund Archegos blowing up costing billions for major global banks

49:25 - Arbitraging bitcoin futures

01:00:45 - Q1; Jim: What are your thoughts on combining a Trend Following system with a mean-reversion system?

01:04:40 - Q2; John: Do you have any advice on which futures contract to trade and when to roll?

01:09:14 - Q3; Mark: If Trend Following philosophy assumes the future is unknown, why is normal to use historical price data?

01:14:45 - Performance recap

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI134: Sticking with Short Positions ft. Jerry Parker

4 april 2021 | 65 min

Jerry Parker is back on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The reasons for avoiding a long-only trading system
Knowing when 'good enough' is good enough
Why investors may be allocating to Trend Following in the wrong amounts
When volatility equates to risk
Approaches to multi-timeframe analysis

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:46 - Macro recap from Niels

04:34 - Weekly review of returns

46:37 - Q1; Marcus: What is Jerry’s approach to shorting stocks?

49:50 - Q2 & Q3; Nathaniel: Do you have any suggestions for reliable ‘predictors of return’? Do you recommend trading futures that are in backwardation?

57:16 - Q4; Nick: Are there advantages to trading markets that are unusually volatile?

01:00:07 - Performance recap

01:01:00 - Recommended listening or reading this week.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI133: Volatility Targeting ft. Rob Carver

29 mars 2021 | 81 min

Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The case for and against Volatility Targeting
Whether Bitcoin can offset any risks from a high-inflationary environment
Whether commodities can be suitable for long-term strategies
The credibility of NFTs as an asset class
Volume analysis as a trading signal
Volatility as a measure of risk

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:24 – Macro recap from Niels

04:17 – Weekly review of performance

31:32 – Q1; Dennis: How can a retail trader with limited capital access the commodity markets?

41:47 - Q2; Dennis: How would you deal with big intraday volatility such as in 2020?

51:02 - Q3; Cat: Is volume analysis overrated?

56:16 - Q4; Gustavo: Why should we be worried about volatility if it is going our way?

01:05:52 - Q5; Emra: How often should you recalibrate your system? Why do you recommend not locking in profits early, after unusually sharp portfolio increases?

01:16:08 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo

01:27:35 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

21 mars 2021 | 89 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
How correlations can increase volatility
The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making
The common perils of 'recency bias'
Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
The hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:14 – Macro recap from Niels

06:36 – Weekly review of performance

57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?

1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?

1:14:42 – Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually?

01:24:03 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo

01:25:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI131: Winning Big During An Inflationary Environment ft. Moritz Seibert

14 mars 2021 | 70 min

Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

Smart ways to manage cash during periods of high inflation
Staying humble during long winning periods
The GameStop short-squeeze
New volatility-based ETFs for Cryptocurrencies
Why analysing the outcome instead of the process may prove costly in the long run
Can we still call Gold a 'safe-haven' asset?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:33 - Macro recap from Niels

04:45 - Weekly review of performance

32:56 - Q1; Daniel: How much do you risk per trade?

48:32 - Q2; Karl: When using moving average crossovers, how do you get back into a trade you were quickly stopped out of?

53:25 - Q3; Mark: Why should I place short trades if my backtest says long trades are more profitable? Have you looked at synthetic data, going back over 200 years?

01:02:58 - Benchmark performance update

01:03:52 - Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Diego Parilla

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI130: Volatility-Targeting: The Big Debate ft. Jerry Parker & Rob Carver

7 mars 2021 | 83 min

We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

The level of active-management that should be involved in controlling open trade equity risk
The benefits and drawbacks of volatility-targeting
Modern Trend Following methods compared to classical Trend Following
The 2020 ‘Covid Crash’ and its possible long-term effects on systematic investing
How important are short positions in a rules-based portfolio?

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Macro recap from Niels

03:33 – Weekly review of performance

10:10 – Jerry Parker vs Rob Carver debate

53:13 – Q1; Michael: Why do you prefer breakouts & moving average cross-overs to other signals?

56:58 – Q2; Rene: Do have preferred methods for measuring trend strength?

01:05:14 – Q3, Q4, Q5 & Q6: Doogie; How can retail investors in the UK gain access to different CTA funds? Do you trade pair spreads? Why doesn’t Rob trade Bitcoin futures yet? Are Trend Following & Market Making returns correlated?

01:09:44 – Q7, Q8 & Q9: Gustavo; How do you manage to transition from an old system to a new system? With a non-binary system, how do you reduce multi-month futures contracts? Do you adjust moving average signals according to recent volatility?

01:15:39 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Anatomy of Bond ETF Arbitrage by the Bank of International Settlements, Pfizer's Abusive Vaccine Deals & Michael Goldstein on ‘Controlling The Bitcoin Rhetoric’

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI129: Correlation & Volatility…and is holding bonds “Stupid”? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

28 februari 2021 | 76 min

We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the GameStop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

If holding bonds "stupid"?
The problem of being an economic policy engineer
Why we have to make a distinguish between complicated and complex systems
The value of intuition - coup d'oeil and Clausewitz
Robot systematic versus human (discretionary) can you tell the difference? Is there a Turing test and " I Robot"
Correlation and volatility
The poor quality of forecasts - latest from currency markets
Due diligence and quality of managers.
Intraday trends – are they stable or unstable?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:46 – Macro recap from Niels

05:18 – Weekly review of performance

01:04:48 – Q1 & Q2; Plamen: Is there an official organisation that studies & publishes data about the CTA industry? Can you speak about the research process you follow and how you generate trade ideas?

01:10:49 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo

01:14:34 – Announcement: Special episode next week featuring both Jerry Parker & Rob Carver

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI128: Investing during Inflationary or Deflationary periods ft. Jerry Parker

22 februari 2021 | 78 min

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:28 – Macro recap from Niels

03:30 – Weekly review of performance

30:49 – Questions from Antonio: What was Bill & Richard’s performance like before they started the Turtle Trader program? What was Chesapeake’s performance like up until Salem Trading was taken under their wing? What has Trend Following performance been like in the 10 years before 2020? Did Richard Dennis want his Turtles to come up with new ideas? Why did famous Trend Followers stop Trend Following in the 1990s?

59:43 – Q1; Mohit: Can you ask Jerry what risk-per-trade he recommends?

01:02:36 – Q2; Peter: Has Jerry ever considered running a new ‘Turtle Trading’ experiment?

01:13:25 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:24 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Dr Andrew Huberman on the Lewis Howes Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI127: Bitcoin's rise to $50,000 & new Ethereum futures ft. Moritz Seibert

15 februari 2021 | 65 min

Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Macro recap from Niels

04:57 – Weekly review of performance

41:32 – Q1; Kevin: In a continuous Trend Following strategy with no stops, is there anyway to minimise the whipsaw action during a trend change?

47:10 – Q2; Simon: How do you measure the business risks that aren’t related to market performance?

49:59 – Q3; Danny: What are your thoughts on using an overall portfolio-based stop-loss

55:14 – Q4; Tsatios: To what extent is hedge fund performance a result of skills in accounting & tax laws, on top of performance in the markets?

01:00:56 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Jim Bianco & Jeremy Grantham on the Meb Faber show

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI126: GameStop & How to become a Systematic Investor ft. Rob Carver

7 februari 2021 | 98 min

Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:25 – Macro recap from Niels

04:27 – Weekly review of performance

42:32 – Q1; Michael: Should you use the US dollar to hedge against multiple long trades?

48:47 – Q2; Dennis: Can you discuss the pros & the cons of scaling in & out of positions?

59:22 – Q3 & Q4; Woody: Will continued central bank intervention prevent Trend Following profitability? Will the rise of passive over active investments pose a threat to medium to long-term Trend Followers, in terms of the increased volatility they might create?

01:15:39 – Q5; Daniel: When starting a new Trend Following system, should you enter all markets right away, or only enter the positions once new signals arrive?

01:21:14 – Q6; Red Eagle: How often do you see a trade that goes long in one pair, and short in another pair, and do you get excited at this? Alternatively, do you worry when both pairs are long or short?

01:25:50 – Q7; Cordura: Do you recommend Trend Following on indices only?

01:31:57 – Benchmark performance update

01:32:49 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Article in the Financial Times on Melvin Capital & the Gamestop frenzy, Hussman Funds recent market comments & Salem Abraham on the Meb Faber podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI125: Will the FED always prevent prolonged market crashes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

31 januari 2021 | 79 min

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, the increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:23 – Macro recap from Niels

05:24 – Weekly review of performance

01:04:34 – Q1; Jonah: Do you recommend adding to a position as the trend develops?

01:12:46 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:27 – Recommended listening or reading this week: The Resilience Engineering website & Danielle DiMartino Booth interviews Vikram Mansharamani on YouTube

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker

24 januari 2021 | 62 min

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:41 – Macro recap from Niels

03:54 – Weekly review of performance

52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?

57:55 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, Corey Hoffstein on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots Podcast & Jack Schwager on The Derivative Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI123: The benefits of NOT taking profits too early ft. Moritz Seibert

18 januari 2021 | 85 min

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:40 – Macro recap from Niels

05:06 – Weekly review of performance

53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?

59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?

01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?

01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?

01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update

01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art Berman & Danielle Dimartino-Booth on The Felder Report Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI122: Quant vs Discretionary Investing ft. Robert Carver

10 januari 2021 | 82 min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:07 – Macro recap from Niels

03:59 – Weekly review of performance

47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?

54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?

01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?

01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?

01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update

01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, The RInger Podcast: ‘Gamblers’ & Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales Podcast on the COVID Vaccine

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI121: How to Design a Profitable Trend Following System

6 januari 2021 | 36 min

In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Privacy Policy

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI120: Deep dive into my own Trend Following Model

2 januari 2021 | 37 min

In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

0:00 – Intro

1:37 – A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show

3:35 – 2020 Macro recap from Niels

6:51 – How to think about trading and system development

31:59 – Performance recap

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI119: Trading TESLA & Commodity Breakout ft. Jerry & Moritz

21 december 2020 | 82 min

Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:28 – Macro recap from Niels

04:13 – Weekly review of performance

12:34 – What is risk management?

57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?

01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?

01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update

01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast & Jack Schwager on the Systematic Investor Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI118: 2020 Trend Following Recap & safe-havens in 2021 ft. Mark & Moritz

13 december 2020 | 74 min

Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:17 – Macro recap from Niels

02:40 – Weekly review of performance

13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?

27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?

53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value

01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update

01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.

01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble Makers by Charlan Jeanne Nemeth & A Deflationary World with Jeff Boothe on the Investors Podcast Network

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI117: Why Stocks and Trend Following is a Perfect Match ft. Moritz Seibert

6 december 2020 | 73 min

Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:15 – Macro recap from Niels

05:14 – Weekly review of performance

52:51 – Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years? & What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?

01:03:18 – Benchmark performance update

01:06:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU114: 2021 Market Predictions ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology

2 december 2020 | 76 min

I first interviewed today’s guest back in 2015, where he predicted the Dow Jones Index would go to 32,000…a bold call back then. Mahendra Sharma is an astrological investor with an amazing track record of accurately predicting market fluctuations. He has spent his career studying astrological charts and conveying those findings, along with his understanding of human behavior, into a lucrative business giving advice on when to sell and when to hold various commodities, bonds, and currencies. His latest book on 2021 Financial Prophecies will be released in January.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Mahendra got into astrology
Why he relocated to Kenya as a young man
Why Mahendra pivoted to predicting the global markets
Why Mahendra stopped predicting big world events after 9/11
How he built his financial astrological charts and what he is looking for
How astrological charts are in some ways similar to other statistical based investment approaches
How human behavior fits into the astrological process
Mahendra’s prediction of Tesla from 2018
What are Mahendra’s predictions for 2021
What trend the European equities markets will follow
Why Mahendra sees an issue with the Euro as we approach 2024
The interesting correlation between the year 2021 and the Fibonacci sequence
Mahendra’s interesting prediction about Gold for the year 2052
Where Mahendra sees the $Dollar bottoming out
What commodities stand out to Mahendra
Mahendra’s prediction for a potential Bitcoin CRASH in early 2021
Why investors should be careful after 2024

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mahendra on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI116: How to manage emotions regardless of your performance ft. Moritz Seibert

29 november 2020 | 61 min

In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

0:00 – Intro

1:33 – Macro recap from Niels

3:17 – Weekly review of performance

8:13 – Q1, via voicemail, from Gene in New Zealand: Is it ok to ignore perceived anomalies & outdated occurrences in historical data?

20:49 – Q2; Veyana: If I get whipsawed out of a trade and it sets up again immediately after, should I take the trade again?

25:26 – Q3; Terrance: How do I control the leverage of my portfolio when utilising volatility parity?

32:00 – Q4; Sebastien: How do you separate your self-worth from your net worth?

39:49 – Benchmark performance update

41:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: The Vinklevoss Twins on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & Robert Breedlove on the Bitcoin Fundamentals Podcast (Investors Podcast Network)

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI115: Open trade Equity vs Realized Profits and Value vs Growth ft. Rob and Moritz

22 november 2020 | 88 min

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record. Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following? Do you recommend any hedging strategies?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:35 – Macro recap from Niels

04:59 – Weekly review of performance

27:16 – Q1; Mervin: What investment strategies would you recommending supplementing a Trend Following portfolio with?

37:36 – Q2 & Q3; Daniel: How do you think about open trade equity versus closed equity, in terms of drawdowns? Do you have any recommendations for hedging your Trend Following positions?

01:03:57 – Q4; Antonio: Which type of Moving Average (SMA, EMA, ALMA etc) is generally the most effective in Trend Following models?

01:22:48 – Benchmark performance update

01:23:48 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rauol Pal on the What Bitcoin Did Podcast & blog post on the Robot Wealth website regarding Tesla’s inclusion in the S&P 500 & William White talking to Jim Grant on Real Vision

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI114: The importance of Short Sellers and Pfizer CEO selling stocks ft. Moritz Seibert

16 november 2020 | 70 min

This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:02 – Macro recap from Niels

03:09 – Weekly review of performance

28:30 – Q1; James: Would your rules suit cash equities only?

38:54 – Q2; Anti: Shorter-term strategies seem to have done well in the last 5 years, should we be looking to trade these shorter timeframes, instead of the longer-term timeframes?

46:54 – Q3; Michael: What are your thoughts on trading in smaller markets such as butter, rough rice & oats?

01:00:18 – Benchmark performance update

01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Stephanie Kelton on the Macro Voices Podcast & Chris Cole on the Grant Williams Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU113: Why Farmland Investments is getting traction ft. Artem Milinchuk of FarmTogether

12 november 2020 | 66 min

Artem Milinchuk is the CEO and Founder of FarmTogether, a firm specializing in farmland investments. Artem was born in the waning days of the Soviet Union, and while growing up in Russia, saw the importance of access to fresh food for a society. Artem joins us today to talk about his investment journey and why he feels that having farmland as an asset class in your investment portfolio can be one of the smartest investment moves you can make.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the transition from the Soviet Union to Russia influenced Artem’s investment strategies
What exactly constitutes farmland as an asset class
How investing in farmland has changed over the past 40 years
How farmland investments help multigenerational families keep their farms
What is the main driver for investors to move into farmland
Why investors include farmland in their portfolios as an inflation-proof asset
How reliable is farmland investment data
What effect will climate change have on farmland investments
How secure are government farm subsidies
The effect 5G will have on farming and farmland investing
What are the risks to consider when investing in farmland
What is FarmTogether’s farmland investment process
How should an investor go about incorporating farmland into their portfolio
How much does an investor need in order to purchase a farm
What types of investors seek out farmland
What are the key questions potential investors should be asking before investing in farmland

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Farmtogether on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI113: The Unknown Market Wizards ft. Jack Schwager

9 november 2020 | 71 min

Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: what timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:27 – Macro recap from Niels

02:17 – Weekly review of performance

05:01 – Niels: Where do systematic traders tend to rank in your book, compared to discretionary traders? What is the minimum length of track record you looked at, to be considered for inclusion in your book?

10:50 – Moritz: To what extent did mean reversion traders feature in your book, versus momentum-orientated traders?

16:47 – Niels: How much do you think luck played a part in the results of the traders in your new book?

23:01 – Moritz: When you were interviewing the traders in your book, did you, at any time, get the feeling that there were tailwinds, outside of their control, that helped their strategies?

27:41 – Niels: Some of the traders in your book blew up their accounts a few times, so can they still be called ‘wizards’ of the market?

34:37 – Moritz: There seems to be opposing views on diversification in your book. What are your thoughts on this?

39:07 – Niels: How do you think about the slight contradiction of discretionary traders being unemotional and not falling in love with their opinions?

41:26 – Moritz: Do you think it’s possible to train random people to be great traders, as in the Turtle Traders, or do you need to be born with certain skills?

45:44 – Niels: Do you believe that earlier market wizards had a different set of skills today’s market wizards?

53:35 – Niels: How do we inform investors to avoid ‘straight-line’ equity returns and embrace inconsistency a little more?

59:10 – Moritz: To what extent can you separate long-term traders & short-term traders in the Unknown Market Wizards book ?

01:02:13 – Niels: Which statistics would you pay most attention to if you had to build a system?

01:06:13 – Niels: If you were an investor, and you had to find a manager, and you could only ask them one question, what would it be?

01:07:43 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI112: How and When to improve your trading system ft. Moritz Seibert

1 november 2020 | 73 min

In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property. Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations? Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:12 – Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆

02:30 – Macro recap from Niels

04:43 – Weekly review of performance

16:38 – Q1; Matt: How do I incorporate external money into my trading strategy, and, alternatively, should I avoid it?

34:17 – Q2; Brian: How do experienced CTAs trade limit-down or limit-up situations?

46:54 – Q3; Panagiotis: Do you see any other uses for machine learning in Trend Following strategies, other than Risk Parity?

01:00:05 – Q4; Craig: Should I stick with my profit targets, or let my winners run?

01:04:46 – Benchmark performance update

01:06:07 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks – Coming Into Focus podcast & Annie Duke on the Capital Allocator’s Podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI111: Trend Following pros and cons ft. Michael Covel

25 oktober 2020 | 68 min

Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:04 – Weekly review of performance

10:17 – Moritz: Do you have any new books in the making?

13:07 – Announcement of Jack Schwager joining us on the show in 2 week’s time

13:16 – Moritz: How is your personal trading going?

16:00 – Listener question; Saeed: Which market sectors have the longest trends?

28:50 – Moritz: Do you think Trend Following is over-crowded?

29:49 – Niels: Is Trend Following’s mediocre performance over the last 10 years a new normal or an anomaly?

30:38 – Niels: What are your thoughts on pure Trend Following versus multi-strategy?

33:27 – Niels: How have institutional investors’ attitudes to Trend Following changed over the past 20 years?

38:24 – Niels: What do you say to those who ask, ‘has quantitive easing killed Trend Following’?

41:32 – Niels: What about those who say, ‘fast moving markets have killed Trend Following’?

43:34 – Niels: What do you think about managers overriding their systems during high-volatility periods?

47:45 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI strategies?

54:10 – Niels: How do you feel about the Trend Following being labelled as ‘crisis alpha’?

01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:01:30 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Robert Rosenberg on Bloomberg’s Business Week podcast, Michael Green on The Investor’s Podcast & Naval Ravikant on the Tim Ferris podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU112: The Art of Investing ft. Scott Lynn of Masterworks

22 oktober 2020 | 58 min

Scott Lynn is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks. He began his career as a serial entrepreneur, starting tech companies focused on casual gaming, online advertising and financial technology. All along the way he collected art, and after seeing the data available in the last twenty years thanks to the Internet, Scott decided to pursue art as an investment. Art as an asset class has been around for hundreds of years, but only recently has been seen as a viable investment opportunity – made possible by Masterworks. Listen in on today’s episode to find out why art is becoming more popular as an asset class among investors, what the key macro drivers are for art, and how Masterworks is making art an accessible investment opportunity.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the art market is different today than it was twenty five years ago
How old art is as an asset class
How analyzing art is different from analyzing other asset classes
When did art as an asset class begin to be studied
How art returns are related to the growth of the top 1%
How art prices are driven by a decreasing supply of new works
How should an art collector think about risk
What is a bad environment for art investment
How Masterworks invests in art
What is a standard commission when buying a piece of art
What are the trends among art investors

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Scott on Twitter

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI110: US Election and how to trade Cryptos with rules ft. Moritz Seibert

19 oktober 2020 | 68 min

This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – Special thank you to our listeners

03:41 – Macro recap from Niels

07:50 – Weekly review of performance

25:53 – Q1; Adam: I’m running a crypto Trend Following strategy. How do I minimise the amount of profit lost at tops & bottoms of markets?

35:40 – Q2; Brendan: My employer is now interested in using my Trend Following system. Do I handover the code & backtests? If I decline, will they be able to sue me (I built the system using half of my own time, and half during my employer’s time)? Do you have any advice re: incentives?

43:38 – Q3; Dr. Doom: Do you have any thoughts on how an Actuary could turn into a Quant trader? What are your opinion on high frequency trading managers?

46:45 – Announcement of Michael Covel joining us on next week’s episode

51:37 – Q4; Thomas: Is Trend Following still suitable as an investment in a mutual fund format?

01:01:48 – Benchmark performance update

01:03:27 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Joel Greenblatt on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast & Felix Zulauf on the Grant Williams podcast

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI109: Investing like a legend ft. Perry Kaufman

12 oktober 2020 | 90 min

Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:25 – Weekly review of performance

06:08 – Niels: How does the content in your book, Trading Systems, inform your decisions when building a system, and what do they mean to you?

26:44 – Niels: How do you avoid overfitting your system to accommodate markets that may not perform well in the future?

29:28 – Niels: How do you avoid being over-correlated?

30:17 – Niels: How does your ranking system work when adding or removing markets from your trading universe?

44:19 – Niels: How do you feel about profit targets?

53:06 – Niels: Why do you believe Trend Following strategies will always be successful?

57:00 – Niels: Have you found in your research that long-sided trades tend work better than short trades, and if so, have any hypothesis as to why that is?

01:04:33 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on trading single stocks vs trading the indices?

01:09:54 – Niels question for Moritz: How have you incorporated yourself & Perry’s work on Volatility Targeting into your trading?

01:21:29 – Niels: Are there any new discoveries that you’ve found in recent years that enhance Trend Following strategies, or have we most likely found everything by now?

01:24:45 – Benchmark performance update

01:26:32 – Niels: Which book, that you didn’t write, would you recommend to our listeners?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI108: The case for and against the Kelly Criterion ft. Robert Carver

4 oktober 2020 | 82 min

Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:24 – Macro recap from Niels

04:40 – Weekly review of performance

31:11 – Q1 & Q2; Roberto: Can Rob & Moritz explain the framework behind building block ‘volatility-targeting in his book ‘Systematic Trading’? Why does Rob, in his book, disagree with trading leveraged ETFs?

01:03:50 – Q3; Chris: Am I correct in avoiding the mini-futures in Silver market due to low liquidity?

01:10:08 – Trend Following: short-term vs medium term vs long term

01:18:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI107: Best and Worst markets to trade and benefits of adding the S&P500 ft. Moritz Seibert

27 september 2020 | 73 min

In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance. Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following? How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following? Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:57 – Macro recap from Niels

04:32 – Weekly review of performance

32:46 – Q1; James: Why does Moritz seemingly switch his positioning in a market between long & short, some times, and not other times?

39:42 – Q2 & Q3; Eduardo: What are your thoughts on inflation, bonds & Trend Following on fixed income? How do commissions and charges affect a Trend Following strategy?

59:00 – Q4; Anti: Is Moritz’s system a ‘stop & reverse’ system?

01:01:02 – Q5 & Q6; Mikael K: Can you build a trend following trading system based on Options rather than Futures? Do you have any advice for trading CFD’s?

01:05:11 – Q7; Michael N: What is the optimal portfolio allocation to Trend Following?

01:09:57 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI106: Ray Dalio's underwhelming 2020 performance and the FED ft. Moritz Seibert

18 september 2020 | 58 min

Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager. Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached? Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:30 – Macro recap from Niels

04:36 – Weekly review of performance

31:24 – Q1; Daniel: How do you size new positions once your intended maximum portfolio risk is reached?

39:17 – Q2; Dave: Do you have any pointers on how effectively perform volatility targeting?

55:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI105: TESLA & How paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading ft. Moritz Seibert

13 september 2020 | 53 min

On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of Systematic Investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks. Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:24 – The importance of investing psychology (with reference to Morgan Housel’s new book: The Psychology of Money)

07:20 – Weekly review of performance

23:32 – Discussion on the perceived safety of bonds

33:05 – Q1; Mike: Do you recommend any platforms that allow you test your system?

40:34 – Q2; Carmich: Can you recommend any off-the-shelf Trend Following strategies for retail traders?

49:32 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM10: MMT, Global Warming and the Uniqueness of the 2020 Crisis ft. Steve Keen

9 september 2020 | 64 min

We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

COVID crisis as a demand and supply shock
Deflation
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
Fiat and Gesselian currencies
Central bank digital currencies
The Euro
Climate Change
Government Debt and Deficits

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Steve on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI104: Inconvenient truths about Trend Following ft. Roberto Osorio

7 september 2020 | 60 min

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osorio, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:07 – Macro recap from Niels

08:49 – Weekly review of performance

09:26 – Interview with Roberto Osorio

12:03 – Niels: Can you help settle the debate of how many markets are optimal to trade?

19:00 – Niels: What are your thoughts on Volatility-targeting?

30:41 – Niels: How do you recognise model decay?

36:23 – Niels: What do you think is the best look-back period for Trend Following models?

44:40 – Niels: What is your view on the most effective ‘type’ of Trend Following model?

50:43 – Niels: What makes DUNN Capital so unique?

55:52 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI103: FED's Powell, Dave Portnoy and the potential Bond market bubble ft. Robert Carver

31 augusti 2020 | 86 min

Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies. Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation? Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:01 – Macro recap from Niels

22:22 – Weekly review of performance

42:34 – Q1; Mike: Do you know of any Trend Followers who use the Black-Litterman model in their work?

55:31 – Q2; Michael: Should you combine the weight of more than 1 entry signal, for added effectiveness?

01:02:30 – Q3; from Twitter, for Rob: Do you have any update on using forecast-strength in a trading system?

01:09:02 – Q4; from Twitter: Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?

01:22:28 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM09: Mistakes from the past to guide us forward ft. Lyn Alden

26 augusti 2020 | 62 min

We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

Long run debt cycles
Deleveraging and inflation in the 1920’s and 1940’s
The 2008 Great Financial Crisis
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
Debt and demographics
QE and inflation
Geopolitics and the possibility of war
Portfolio inflation hedging
Bitcoin
Debt jubilees
Pension fund investing in a low yield world

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Lyn on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI102: TESLA and the famous Tech Bubble ft. Moritz Seibert

23 augusti 2020 | 54 min

This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies, Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems. Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working? How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:12 – Macro recap from Niels

17:53 – Weekly review of performance

22:52 – Discussion on how to safely own gold, and the German government’s move to tax investors on their Gold ETF holdings

31:56 – Q1 & Q2; Zaro: At what point do you decide that your model isn’t working? How do you account for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?

51:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM08: Watch out for The Bond Market Vigilantes ft. Jim Bianco

21 augusti 2020 | 66 min

In today’s episode we are joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.

Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

The uniqueness of the 2020 financial crisis
How the Federal Reserve has been aggressively manipulating the bond markets
The Wealth Effect’ vs free markets
The current retail stock market ‘mania’
The only group who can bring bond markets down: The Bond Market Vigilantes
The scale and risk of the Federal Reserve’s borrowing and money printing
Implications of the recent, wild price swings in Oil
How the Corona Virus may have accelerated trends that were already beginning to occur
How the future may be bright, but the journey to get there may prove to be difficult
Jim’s thoughts on how to be positioned for the times ahead

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Jim on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

GM07: The father of the Yield-Curve indicator ft. Campbell Harvey

19 augusti 2020 | 69 min

In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.

Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S., he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

The ‘Great Compression’ rather than another Great Depression
How the Yield Curve indicator was signalling a mild recession even before the Corona crisis
Why politician’s would rather have inflation than raise taxes
How 50% of all companies in the S&P 500 were completely unaware of the risk of pandemics
Why Bitcoin failed as a hedge in its first ever recession
Why the US Dollar’s days as a world reserve currency are numbered
Why central banks may now feel incentivised to create their own digital currencies
Technology and how it’s going to unleash opportunities to transact value & human capital on a scale never seen before
Cam’s somewhat rare, positive outlook for the future
Why peer to peer transactions and lending will be the way forward

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Campbell on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI101: Howard Mark’s comments on managing risk and market cycles ft. Moritz Seibert

17 augusti 2020 | 60 min

In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea. Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:15 – Macro recap from Niels

04:10 – Weekly review of performance

11:25 – Howard Marks quotes on risk management and market cycles

29:11 – Patience for your system vs for an individual position

34:36 – Q1; Rene: How do you avoid losing a big profit during a parabolic move?

40:10 – Q2 & Q3; Peregrin: Do you have any evidence of systems working better when its positions match our opinion of the macro ‘story’? Does Trend Following system alert its manager to crowd opinions they might otherwise be unaware of?

48:48 – Q4; Maurigus: Is CAGR a good measure of performance?

57:06 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI100: How to filter your trades and staying unemotional ft. Jerry Parker

9 augusti 2020 | 66 min

In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system, Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction

03:13 – Macro recap from Niels

08:16 – Weekly review of performance

13:54 – The benefits of keeping it simple

17:20 – Why you should take every trade & follow your rules

26:16 – Jerry’s incredible story from his journey with Richard Dennis’s ‘Trading Turtles’

27:30 – Some more thoughts on Volatility Targeting

48:19 – The best performing sectors historically among Trend Followers

50:24 – The deep history of Trend Following investors

51:31 – Cliff Asness quotes from the Flirting With Models podcast

01:00:41 – Performance recap

01:31:00 – Some personal highlights, on our 100th episode

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM06: The hidden danger of Passive Investing ft. Michael Green

4 augusti 2020 | 61 min

In today’s episode, we are joined by Michael Green. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

Passive investing
ETFs and target date funds
Intergenerational inequality
Real interest rates over history
Mean reversion and momentum
Negative interest rates
Leverage: recourse vs no recourse (limited liability)
MMT
Yield enhancement strategies

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Michael on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI99: Trend Following on ETFs and how to safely invest more aggressively in stocks ft. Moritz Seibert

3 augusti 2020 | 54 min

In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns. We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity? Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:44 – Macro recap from Niels

03:00 – Weekly review of returns

04:25 – The importance of non-correlated strategies such as Trend Following or Volatility-based

15:17 – Q’s 1, 2 & 3; Bruno: What is your chosen measure of liquidity, and how liquid does a market have to be, to be included in your portfolios? How do you size positions, with co-movements in mind? Are you always trading the front-month contract?

26:37 – Q4; Walter: How do you test your system’s code?

33:14 – Q’s 5 & 6; Zack: Does Trend Following on ETFs work? What are the optimal time periods when analysing market correlation data?

45:01 – Q7: Michael: Do you place your trades at the close, open, or other times?

50:23 – Performance recap

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM05: FEDs reaction to the Global Pandemic ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth

28 juli 2020 | 61 min

Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and it’s likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks and when we first learned about COVID in the autumn of 2019 (one for conspiracy theorists!).

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

COVID-19
QE and the transmission mechanism
China
US bond market
Monetary policy rules and the choice of inflation measure
Democracy: Revolution or direct democracy?
China-US trade
Inequality
Negative interest rates
Bitcoin and ‘Fedcoin’

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Danielle on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI98: The secret to John. W. Henry's (owner of Liverpool FC and Boston Red Sox) success ft. Mark Rzepczynski

26 juli 2020 | 84 min

Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:14 – Macro recap from Niels

02:53 – Weekly review of performance

05:55 – Niels: Can you tell us about your journey to where you are today?

10:24 – Niels: Do you think John Henry’s success in sports can be partly down to his previous Trend Following methodologies?

12:18 – Niels: How do think we as humans overcome our behavioural biases in investing?

14:32 – Moritz: To what extent do systematic CTAs need laser-like focus, compared to others?

17:57 – Moritz: How did the day-to-day business of John W. Henry run?

21:00 – Niels: What led to John W. Henry eventually dissolving his firm, and what have leading CTAs today, who have been around since then, done right to still be successful?

29:02 – Moritz: How many markets in a trading system are too many?

42:06 – Niels to Moritz: How do you really benefit from correlation-based position sizing?

49:35 – Mark to hosts: How do you utilise momentum ranking in your portfolios?

55:45 – Niels: Where do you think returns dispersion among CTAs stems is stemming from?

57:21 – Moritz: What can be done better, in terms of selling a strategy to potential clients?

01:10:16 – Niels: How do you get so many ideas for content for your blog?1:12:32 – Niels: Do you have specific times of the day to do your writing?1:13:55 – Moritz: Why is the concept of convexity so popular nowadays?

01:18:06 – Niels: What is the best downside protection, in your opinion?

01:23:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM04: Global Macro from a High Level ft. Larry McDonald

24 juli 2020 | 61 min

Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

Risk Indicators
Unemployment
Modern Monetary Theory
US Dollar
Inequality
Inflation
Gold and Silver
2020 Election
Tesla
Warren Buffet
Fed balance sheet

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Larry on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM03: The Dollar losing its Reserve Currency Status ft. Erik Townsend

22 juli 2020 | 64 min

Todays’ guest is Erik Townsend, host of the Macro voices podcast. Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”!

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode

MMT
Inflation outlook & inflation hedging
QE
China & Russia
Civil unrest & revolution
Digital global reserve currency
Coronavirus

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Erik on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI97: Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase ft. Robert Carver

21 juli 2020 | 39 min

Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:45 – Check out the first 2 recent episodes of our Global Macro series

01:58 – Macro recap from Niels

03:18 – Weekly review of performance

11:44 – Thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase of the Dominion Energy’s natural gas pipelines & current Apple position

14:59 – Discussion on Mark Zepczynski’s article on being over-diversified

31:05 – Thoughts on AQR article regarding Tail Risk hedging

34:48 – Benchmark performance update

35:41 – Check out Rob Carver’s recent article on his blog

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM02: The failure of the Dollar ft. Preston Pysh

17 juli 2020 | 64 min

Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of a US/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode

Value Investing
The correct discounting of future cash flows
Demographic changes
The debt cycle
QE
Berkshire Hathaway
The fundamental case for huge returns on Bitcoin
Yield curve control
The failure of the dollar
The connection between Bonds & Bitcoin prices
Why countries should be doing their best to accumulate Bitcoin

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Preston on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

GM01: The COVID-19 Fallout ft. Julian Brigden

14 juli 2020 | 66 min

Our guest in todays episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

The consistency of the US dollar cycle
The COVID related March funding squeeze
Why Risk Parity strategies might be a bad idea going forward
The many visible signs of ‘the Fourth Turning’ and why global markets are at an inflection point
Unemployment
Why recent Federal Reserve liquidity injections into the market may not have been part of Quantitative Easing (QE), which could still be yet to come
Yield curve control
The independence of the Fed
Why Bitcoin may be a dangerous long-term investment
Financial repression
Why government bond yields may struggle to rise again
The history of global pandemics
How market cycles tend to repeat themselves
The importance of central bank policies when trying to gauge markets

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Julian on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI96: How RobinHood really makes its profits ft. Moritz Seibert

13 juli 2020 | 47 min

On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:21 – Global macro review

02:42 – Weekly review of performance

05:15 – How lofty expectations are driving stock market prices

08:25 – What bond markets are telling us about the long prospects for equities

13:13 – Why we may be heading for an inflationary environment

19:05 – How CTA positioning is beginning to swing to the long side of equities

21:20 – Article on downside protection by Mark Zepczynski

28:29 – Article on high CTA returns dispersion by Mark Zepczynski

30:23 – Unveiling of guests, & more info, about our upcoming mini-series

44:47 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO117: Judging A “Book” By Its Cover

10 juli 2020 | 8 min

BO116: Are US Treasuries Still Safe?

9 juli 2020 | 12 min

BO115: Trend or Value Investing...why not Both?

8 juli 2020 | 7 min

BO114: Why Too few Invest with CTAs

8 juli 2020 | 6 min

BO113: Asset Allocation Using Correlations

6 juli 2020 | 5 min

SI95: Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your system and how to size your positions ft. Moritz Seibert

6 juli 2020 | 50 min

This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon’s quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward. Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well? Can I diversify using stock sectors only? What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Global macro review

04:04 – Weekly review of performance

07:41 – The inaccuracies of typical CTA replicator models

22:28 – Jim Simons quotes on overriding trading models

24:34 – Question One; Will: So far, my trading system is successful, and I am looking to expand it. Should I expand it to include an additional look-back period, market(s), or trading strategy? Could you recommend any reliable data sources?

31:57 – Question Two; Abishek: Can I diversify using different stock sectors only?

35:28 – Question Three; Noah: What are your views on Volatility Targeting?

47:57 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO112: Combining Fundamental & Systematic Investing. Does it work?

3 juli 2020 | 11 min

BO111: Educating Financial Advisors About Systematic Investing

2 juli 2020 | 9 min

BO110: Change vs Inconsistency

1 juli 2020 | 5 min

BO109: Leverage & Volatility

30 juni 2020 | 3 min

BO108: The Case For Being Longer-Term & Systematic

29 juni 2020 | 8 min

SI94: Markets to avoid in Systematic Investing and David Harding interview ft. Moritz Seibert

29 juni 2020 | 44 min

In today’s episode, we discuss David Harding’s interview from 2013 with the SEC Historical Society, possible mistakes to avoid in Systematic Investing, if there are any differences between market confidence and the strength of a Trend, thoughts on Excel vs Python, and the importance of preserving capital during bad periods. We also answer your questions, including: Does the rise of Volatility trading have any effect on the effectiveness of Trend Following strategies? How is trend strength calculated?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:27 – Weekly review of performance

07:38 – David Harding interview with the SEC

14:44 – Richard Dennis quotes

15:57 – Hedge Nordic magazine article featuring Niels & Rob Carver

18:44 – Question One; Brian: Does the rise of Volatility Trading affect Trend Following strategies?

33:48 – Question Two; Brian: How is Trend Strength calculated?

41:37 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO107: Roughly Right or Precisely Wrong

27 juni 2020 | 3 min

BO106: The Perfect Portfolio

25 juni 2020 | 9 min

BO105: How to Trade Fixed Income

24 juni 2020 | 7 min

BO104: What (really) Defines A Trend Following Trader?

23 juni 2020 | 8 min

SI93: Howard Mark’s latest memo, TESLA and Wirecard ft. Moritz Seibert

22 juni 2020 | 56 min

This week, we discuss the possible effects of recent bans on short selling, Howard Mark’s latest memo on the recent rally in asset prices, the Wirecard debacle of losing $1.9billion, Tesla’s ascension to having the largest market cap of all car manufacturers in the world, the benefits of Trend Following in a diversified portfolio, the power of non-correlated strategies combined, and the secret sauce of Trend Following. Questions we answer include: How do Central Bank policies affect Trend Following strategies? Are some markets more prone to trends than others?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:40 – Howard Marks memo on the recent rally in asset prices (The Anatomy of A Rally)

03:41 – Weekly review of performance

07:31 – The banning of short-selling

13:49 – Tesla trading above $1000 for the 1st time

19:43 – Question One; Thomas: How do central bank policies affect Trend Following?

36:45 – Question Two; Stratesdown: How many strategies should I run on each market?

47:21 – Question Three; Brian: Are some markets more prone to trends than others?

51:35 – Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged mini-series

53:11 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO103: Trend Following Explained in Less Than 15 Words

22 juni 2020 | 2 min

BO102: Treating Markets Differently...True or False?

19 juni 2020 | 10 min

BO101: Ignoring Short-Term Performance...even if it's Hard to do

17 juni 2020 | 3 min

BO100: Embracing Both Longs & Shorts

17 juni 2020 | 2 min

BO99: Which Month of Futures Contracts should You Trade?

16 juni 2020 | 3 min

BO98: The Cutoff Point For Equity Drawdowns...When Enough is Enough

15 juni 2020 | 4 min

SI92: How to add robustness to your trading and choosing the right time horizon ft. Robert Carver

15 juni 2020 | 70 min

Robert Carver joins us back on the show to discuss why simulating ‘noisy’ data in your backtest can add to robustness, how similar strategies can still result in widely varying returns, how to choose the right look-back period, trading continuous vs binary systems, and how much automation should be used when running a system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:06 – Global Macro Discussion

04:24 – Macro recap from Niels

06:02 – Weekly review of performance

13:57 – Choosing the right look-back period/time-frame

24:54 – Adding noise to your backtest

30:54 – Using capital more efficiently

42:06 – Binary vs continuous systems

57:32 – How automated should your system be?

01:06:36 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO97: The Most Influential Look-back Period and How to Find it

12 juni 2020 | 5 min

BO96: Correlations Among Sectors & Asset Classes

10 juni 2020 | 11 min

BO95: Fully Systematic or Manual Overrides?

9 juni 2020 | 15 min

BO94: Dollar Cost Averaging Strategies..do the (really) work?

8 juni 2020 | 1 min

SI91: Disconnect between stock market prices and their expected returns ft. Moritz Seibert

7 juni 2020 | 44 min

Today we discuss the disconnect between stock market prices & their expected returns based on economic data, why current p&l may not reflect the quality of your positions, and the potential role of central banks in the future. Questions we answer include: How do you reduce futures rollover costs? How often should a Trend Follower look at their portfolio?

Documentaries mentioned: The Fourth Turning Explained and Prince of the Yen

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – Macro recap from Niels

03:18 – Weekly review of performance

09:07 – Global macro discussion

29:11 – Abhishek: Question 1: How do you reduce the problem of futures rollover costs?

32:37 – Tim: Question 2: How often should you look at your portolio?

35:00 – Karl: Question 3: How many positions should I have open at 0.5% equity risk per trade?

40:38 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO93: Increasingly Short-Term Expectations

5 juni 2020 | 3 min

BO92: Volatility: The New Player In Town

4 juni 2020 | 15 min

BO91: Is Trend Following Too Crowded?

3 juni 2020 | 9 min

BO90: Can AI Trading Models Really Work?

2 juni 2020 | 5 min

BO89: How To Approach Risk Management

1 juni 2020 | 8 min

SI90: How to make 3000% in a month and why CTAs are the perfect portfolio ft. Jerry Parker

1 juni 2020 | 82 min

Jerry Parker rejoins us today to discuss how single stocks behave differently to indexes, knowing when to ignore your backtests, multi-strategy CTAs vs trend following CTAs, how to make 3000% in a month, why CTAs should be considered the ‘perfect portfolio’ rather than ‘crisis alpha’, and how luck plays a part in past returns. Questions we answer include: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? What positions are you mainly in at the moment?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:51 – Macro recap from Niels

03:13 – Weekly review of performance

51:23 – Question 1; Brian: What are the main positions that you are in at the moment?

53:56 – Questions 2; Daniel: Does it matter how something has made a breakout?

57:50 – Questions 3, 4 & 5; James: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? Can Jerry share how his equity portfolio has faired during the Covid-19 crisis? How should you space apart chosen look-back periods?

01:18:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO88: When To Modify Your System...the $64,000 Question

28 maj 2020 | 5 min

BO87: Incorporating Correlations Into Your Strategy

27 maj 2020 | 6 min

BO86: Should You Trade All Markets the Same Way?

26 maj 2020 | 12 min

BO85: Investments that (really) Work During Market Turmoil

25 maj 2020 | 5 min

SI89: Trend Following EFTs and Asness vs Taleb ft. Rufus Rankin

24 maj 2020 | 58 min

We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees, how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in?

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:26 – Macro recap from Niels

04:06 – Weekly review of performance

07:20 – Niels: How what was your journey into this industry?

08:57 – Niels: How did you end up allocating capital to CTAs?

10:05 – Niels: Do you view Trend Following as a philosophy?

12:50 – Niels: What are your thoughts about truly diversified portfolios?

17:28 – Moritz; If we can’t forecast CTA returns, do you think we should allocate capital to as many CTAs as possible?

20:02 – Niels: What percent of a whole portfolio would you recommend to Trend Following, and what would investors be comfortable with?

19:02 – Moritz; Do you only allocate to Trend Following CTAs?

22:41 – Moritz; Do you consider yourselves to be a ‘fund of funds’?

23:11 – Moritz; How do you handle client pressure surrounding double-layering of fees?

24:17 – Niels: Who do you think drives the demand for flat-fees, rather than performance-based fees?

26:03 – Niels: What do you think of cheap Trend Following replication products versus full-cost, long-established, Trend Following funds?

30:16 – Moritz: Do you still think CTAs are worth their performance fees?

32:30 – Niels: How do you choose between different managers?

35:19 – Moritz: When do you stop adding CTAs to your portfolio, for diversification?

37:15 – Moritz: How do you gain exposure to your chosen CTAs?

38:44 – Niels: How has 2020 been for you so far?

40:09 – Niels: What are some of the things you learned from Q1 2020?

42:52 – Moritz: How has machine learning added value during Q1 2020?

44:41 – Question 1; Michael: Have you ever considered creating a Trend Following ETF?

48:49 – Niels: Would Trend Following ETFs be required to disclose the rules of the strategies?

44:41 – Questions 2&3; Brian: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in investor interest, post the 2020 market crash? What non-USA or EU markets are CTAs currently interested in?

53:31 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO84: How Many Markets Are Too Many?

22 maj 2020 | 12 min

BO83: What Does Diversification Really Mean?

21 maj 2020 | 9 min

BO82: Trend Following & the 2020 COVID Crash

20 maj 2020 | 11 min

BO81: Trend Following Terms Explained

19 maj 2020 | 5 min

BO80: How Big Is the Trend Following Space...Really?

18 maj 2020 | 4 min

SI88: The Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely ft. Robert Carver

17 maj 2020 | 72 min

Robert Carver joins us to discuss the huge outperformance year-to-date of systematic funds vs discretionary funds, negative prices & their effects on market participants, systematising volatility strategies, whether there is a Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely, Newfound Research’s article on Options Straddles & Trend Following, and where we currently see the strongest trends in our portfolios.

Article mentioned: Straddles & Trend Following by Newfound Research

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:32 – Macro recap from Niels

04:15 – Weekly review of performance

01:07:37 – Question 1; Brian: Where do you see the strongest trends in your portfolio?

01:08:34 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO79: When The Evidence Isn’t Enough

15 maj 2020 | 4 min

BO78: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator & Markets Today vs the 1920s

14 maj 2020 | 10 min

BO77: Expected Returns & Unexpected Drawdowns

13 maj 2020 | 4 min

BO76: The Biggest Behavioural Bias

12 maj 2020 | 1 min

BO75: Volatility vs Risk and why Investors keeps getting this mixed up!

11 maj 2020 | 3 min

SI87: Dealing with stress when you bring down a bank ft. Nick Leeson

10 maj 2020 | 87 min

We’re joined today by special guest Nick Leeson, who is famous for the collapse of Barings Bank, one the oldest banks in the world at the time, to discuss liquidity risk in the markets, dealing with stress in extraordinary situations, the benefits of asking yourself the difficult questions, problems when interpreting vast amounts of data, what Nick looks for when investing today, the importance of communicating your feelings, and lots more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:43 – Macro recap from Niels

03:16 – Weekly review of performance

05:18 – Niels: What key decisions have shaped your life so far?

07:59 – Niels: Can you describe the period between 1992 & 1995?

12:44 – Niels: What do you remember about the supposed ‘complex’ products that your were trading?

16:19 – Moritz: What was it like trading in Indonesia?

20:06 – Moritz: How did you end up being sent abroad to run a business for a bank?

26:34 – Moritz: What type of products did you trade at the SIMEX?

29:32 – Niels: What are things you look for in a person or organisation you would want to invest with?

34:57 – Niels: You advise large businesses, so what are the discussions you are currently having with your clients?

49:39 – Moritz:What was your thinking & process while attempting to recover huge losses?

55:41 – Niels: Do you talk with your clients about a market’s liquidity risk?

58:53 – Niels: How has electronic trading made markets more liquid or less liquid?

01:02:16 – Niels: Do you see similarities between today’s scandals, and the behavious of past financial scandals?

01:05:49 – Moritz: How do you trade today, and what do you think is important is for good trading?

01:11:23 – Niels: Describe how you’ve dealt with stress throughout extraordinary situations?

01:17:01 – Niels: What are the key things you try to teach your kids, based on your experiences?

01:18:57 – Benchmark performance update

01:19:57 – Moritz: Tell us about Bull And Bear Cap?

01:21:51 – Moritz: Are you continually asked about your history with Barings Bank?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO74: Patience & Persistence

8 maj 2020 | 3 min

BO73: Four C’s of Good Investing: Conviction

7 maj 2020 | 2 min

BO72: Four C’s of Good Investing: Courageousness

6 maj 2020 | 2 min

BO71: Four C’s of Good Investing: Clarity

5 maj 2020 | 5 min

BO70: Four C’s of Good Investing: Consistency

4 maj 2020 | 4 min

SI86: Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting ft. Moritz Seibert

3 maj 2020 | 59 min

Today, we discuss comments from Warren Buffett in the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, AQR Capital’s recent research finding pure Trend Following strategies to be a better hedge in bear markets than Options strategies, the oil market & the USO ETF, how commodities are great diversifiers which often outperform equities, how to think about market inefficiencies, and why it’s never too late to invest into Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:53 – Macro recap from Niels

07:24 – Weekly review of returns

40:38 – Alastair: Questions 1/2/3: How do you pick which month futures contract to trade? Is there any possible alpha in how you roll a futures contract? What is your overall reason for doing what you do in the markets?

52:22 – Top Tweet

53:49 – Performance recap

56:35 – Announcement of next week’s special guest, Nick Leeson

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO69: Process over Outcome

1 maj 2020 | 2 min

BO68: The Simple Secret to Overcome Emotions when Investing

30 april 2020 | 4 min

BO67: Why Investors are Naturally Risk Averse

29 april 2020 | 3 min

BO66: Why Investors (always) Fall for a Good Story

28 april 2020 | 6 min

BO65: The 4 Biases of Bad Investing Behaviour

27 april 2020 | 3 min

SI85: Similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020 ft. Nick Radge

25 april 2020 | 96 min

Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more. Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies? What trading books do you recommend?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Macro recap from Niels

04:04 – Weekly review of performance

05:42 – Niels: For some context, tell us about little about your journey in trading so far.

17:58 – Niels: How have you made Trend Following strategies work on stocks?

22:48 – Niels: Why have you chosen to only trade equities on the long-side?

34:21 – Niels: How do you operate your different types of trading systems? Do you always run them at the same time?

38:37 – Moritz: How do you help your clients today?

48:29 – Moritz: Do your clients ever have enough impact on the market to cause you to adapt your systems?

53:07 – Niels: Do you operate your US stocks portfolio the same as on Australian stocks?

58:47 – Niels: Are the Australian equity markets liquid?

01:00:53 – Niels: Why do you think the recent crash is similar to 1987?

01:16:30 – Question 1: Michael; How do you incorporate Risk Management into your system?

01:24:19 – Questions 2&3: Michael; How should I size positions for trades based on Moving Averages? Can you recommend any Trading books, especially related to Risk Management?

01:30:40 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO64: The Most CounterIntuitive Human Behaviour in Investing

24 april 2020 | 2 min

BO63: The Behavioural Gap

23 april 2020 | 7 min

BO62: How Simple Rules Cure Sick Portfolios

22 april 2020 | 3 min

BO61: Overrated Knowledge & the Neglect of Behavioural Finance

21 april 2020 | 3 min

BO60: Improving a Broken Model...can it be done?

20 april 2020 | 12 min

SI84: Is pyramiding a bad strategy? and how many markets to trade? ft. Robert Carver

19 april 2020 | 73 min

We’re joined today by Robert Carver to discuss why classical Trend Following strategies did well in the recent selloff, the risks in OTC trading, why it’s important to diversify across different managers, the varying recent returns of Renaissance Technologies and AHL, and how Robert Carver approaches volatility, scaling & portfolio construction during a crisis. Questions answered this week include: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Is pyramiding a bad strategy? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Macro recap from Niels

03:14 – Weekly review of performance

59:25 – Questions 1, 2 & 3; Gary: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes? Is pyramiding a bad strategy?

01:24:56 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO59: Howard Marks & the Definition of Buying Low

17 april 2020 | 7 min

BO58: The Balance between Innovation, Evolution and Stickability

16 april 2020 | 5 min

BO57: A.I. Strategies With Human Biases

15 april 2020 | 6 min

BO56: Sticking with Your System through the Good & the Bad Times

14 april 2020 | 10 min

SI83: Responsible Investing and how to cope with extreme volatility ft. Moritz Seibert

13 april 2020 | 57 min

In this episode, we discuss how Trend Following strategies are able to cope with the extra volatility around huge world events, Transtrend’s recent article on responsible investing and why that includes the ability to short a market, the current oil situation, and recent interview appearances by Ray Dalio and Danielle DiMartino Booth. Questions answered this week include: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper inflationary environment? Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 Crash?

Interviews mentioned: Danielle DiMartino Booth on Valuetainment and Ray Dalio on TED

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:55 – Macro recap from Niels

07:06 – Weekly review of performance

08:09 – Top Tweets

36:58 – Craig: Question 1: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper-inflationary environment?

46:31 – George: Question 2: Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 crash?

53:49 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO55: What Does It Take To Be A Successful Trader?

10 april 2020 | 3 min

BO54: Embracing Volatility

9 april 2020 | 9 min

BO53: Trend Trading vs Mean Reverting – What Should You Trade?

8 april 2020 | 3 min

BO52: Thoughts on Risk Management and Leverage

7 april 2020 | 3 min

BO51: Insights to a Unique System Design

6 april 2020 | 4 min

SI82: Is Machine Learning and AI just a marketing ploy? ft. Harold de Boer

5 april 2020 | 88 min

Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:18 – Macro recap from Niels

03:14 – Weekly review of performance

06:56 – Niels: What do you make of the huge returns dispersion of CTAs during the recent market crash?

14:14 – Niels: What causes managers to have similar results?

16:42 – Moritz: Is the adoption of Machine Learning & AI more than just a marketing ploy?

25:58 – Niels: How CTAs differentiate themselves from each other, in the eyes of investors?

28:57 – Niels: Why are investors usually least invested in Trend Following strategies around the time when they need it most?

30:00 – Moritz: What is the Transtrend story?

33:14 – Moritz: How do you use synthetic markets?

35:08 – Niels; Why have you decided to lower the amount of markets you trade?

38:36 – Niels; How do you avoid taking on too much counter party risk?

45:49 – Moritz: How do you approach market correlations?

49:53 – Moritz: As a liquidity provider, what happens when orders aren’t filled?

52:55 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns, as a liquidity provider?

55:43 – Niels: Who do you think market regulators need to take a look at?

59:01 – Moritz: Would you like it if markets were only open for a short amount of time per day?

01:02:26 – Moritz: Do you believe that trading commodities hurt the producers in any way?

01:12:06 – Niels: Have markets changed?

01:13:36 – Niels: How do CTAs avoid client redemptions during a crisis, purely because they’re the only liquids funds left?

01:16:25 – Niels: What do you think is important when it comes to robustness?

01:18:56 – Moritz: What’s your view on volatility targeting?

01:22:18 – Niels: What are your thoughts on the belief that Trend Following is overcrowded?

01:24:56 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO50: Why Trend Following (Still) Works

3 april 2020 | 4 min

BO49: Do markets drive Performance or is it Skill?

2 april 2020 | 5 min

BO48: Exploiting the Fractal Nature of Markets in a Systematic Way

1 april 2020 | 8 min

BO47: Our Worst Trade

31 mars 2020 | 7 min

BO46: When should You stay Out of a Market?

30 mars 2020 | 2 min

SI81: Why simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas ft. Moritz Seibert

28 mars 2020 | 77 min

Today, we discuss the benefits of focusing on highly liquid markets, why Trend Following strategies are usually less risky & volatile in any market environment, how simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas, whether there’s a place for discretion in trading systems, why a manager’s true aims may not be what you were are expecting, and how emotional intelligence disappears during times of stress. Questions we answer include: Should I have fewer positions, and risk more per trade? How do you deal with a market’s sudden loss of liquidity? How does open equity affect upcoming position sizes?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:21 – Macro recap from Niels

05:57 – Weekly review of performance

08:09 – Top Tweets

41:53 – Francois: Question 1: How did you handle the huge drop in Oil?

45:18 – Mike: Questions 2/3: How do you handle futures capacity constraints? A large trend will likely attract many Trend Followers, how does this affect your position sizing?

01:00:00 – James: Question 4: How do you deal with gap-downs in a market’s liquidity?

01:01:31 – Dave: Question 5: How does open trade equity affect future position sizing?

01:04:44 – Dante: Question 6: Should I use fewer positions & risk more per trade?

01:11:08 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO45: Should You Adjust Your Position Size During A Trade?

27 mars 2020 | 4 min

BO44: How much should I Allocate to Trend Following?

26 mars 2020 | 6 min

BO43: Are CTAs Causing Market Sell-Offs?

25 mars 2020 | 13 min

BO42: The value of Big Data & AI will be Tested during the Coronavirus Turmoil

24 mars 2020 | 8 min

BO41: How to Deal with Clients During Drawdowns

23 mars 2020 | 3 min

SI80: Why uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable ft. Eric Crittenden

23 mars 2020 | 95 min

This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much returns dispersion among CTAs today.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Macro recap from Niels

03:12 – Weekly review of performance

06:51 – Niels: How did you get to where you are today?

08:00 – Niels: What persuaded you to embrace Trend Following?

11:48 – Moritz: Do you believe Trend Following works because it’s difficult to do?

17:05 – Niels: What do you think it takes nowadays to be a successful investor?

21:38 – Niels: Do you think the speed of the current meltdown is surprising?

30:17 – Moritz: Is the Trend Following space overcrowded, and are its results decaying?

48:31 – Niels: What do you think of Trend Following on individual stocks?

52:42 – Niels: Are concerned about the stability of ETFs?

56:09 – Moritz: Do you have any concerns about the money passively allocated to ETFs?

58:30 – Moritz: Did you imply Trend Following on individual stocks isn’t worth it, after fees?

01:02:51 – Niels: Can you explain your ‘3 Narratives’, starting with ‘The Experiment’?

01:09:45 – Niels: Tell us about the next narrative, ‘The Crazy Gym’?

01:13:58 – Niels: What about the 3rd narrative, ‘Michelle & her 2 advisors’?

01:18:21 – Eric: Moritz, would you like to talk about recent trades in the energy sector?

01:29:50 – Benchmark performance update

01:31:56 – Niels: Eric is there anything else you would like to bring up in closing?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

BO40: Does Jerry Parker Trade Synthetic Instruments?

20 mars 2020 | 3 min

BO39: Can Market Timing using Technical Indicators be Profitable?

19 mars 2020 | 6 min

BO38: Systematic vs Discretionary Investing

18 mars 2020 | 8 min

BO37: Does Trend Following still work? Comments from David Harding, Cliff Asness & Stanley Druckenmiller

17 mars 2020 | 12 min

BO36: The Time It Takes To Stick With Your Rules

16 mars 2020 | 7 min

SI79: A historical volatile week put into perspective ft. Robert Carver

15 mars 2020 | 102 min

We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management. Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this? What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods? What are your thoughts on AI technology?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:09 – Macro recap from Niels

04:03 – Weekly review of performance

08:09 – Niels: How have you dealt with the recent volatility?

19:44 – Niels: What does diversification mean to you?

28:35 – Niels: How many markets can be considered too many for a diversified Trend Following system to trade?

41:10 – Moritz: What type of different strategies do you currently trade?

46:27 – Niels: What has helped you to do well during recently, especially during the recent market turmoil?

51:17 – Niels: Why have you chosen to trade different markets differently, rather than treating all markets the same?

01:03:18 – Seth; Question 1: How do you incorporate correlations into building a Trend Following program?

01:09:40 – Moritz; Question 2: What causes you modify your system over time, and how do you go about this?

01:14:37 – Niels: What, in your opinion, is a good risk management framework? What have you learnt from trading previous crisis periods?

01:22:09 – Niels: What are your thoughts on AI technology?

01:27:20 – Moritz: What are your thoughts on the possibility of Trend Following becoming too crowded?

01:36:12 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO35: A Month in the Life of a CTA

12 mars 2020 | 5 min

BO34: More Fiction in Excel than in Word

12 mars 2020 | 4 min

BO33: Howard Marks & Limiting Downside Potential

11 mars 2020 | 7 min

BO32: Trend Following: The Perfect Hedge, or the Perfect Portfolio?

10 mars 2020 | 10 min

BO31: Equity Indices – Who Wants To Be Average?

8 mars 2020 | 5 min

SI78: Tom Basso’s research on higher Trend Following returns as volatility increases

8 mars 2020 | 76 min

This week, we discuss the potential benefits of investing in more than one systematic fund, Tom Basso’s research finding that Trend Following returns increase as market volatility increases, the process behind Moritz’s discretionary trade last week, sizing positions according to volatility, the historic rally in government bonds, and the importance of good risk management. Questions we answer include: What software do you use to manage and monitor your portfolios? How much importance do you place on pyramiding into & out of positions? Have you found that some markets trend better than others?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:26 – Macro recap from Niels

03:00 – Weekly review of performance

29:11 – Top Tweets

50:16 – Dante; Question 1: What software do you use to monitor your portfolios?

52:15 – Andrew; Question 2: How much importance do you place on the effect of pyramiding into & out of positions?

59:28 – Mike; Question 3: Do you size positions based on volatility, and how does this affect correlations?

01:04:12 – James; Question 4: Do you believe particular markets ‘trend’ better than others?

01:11:44 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO30: Historical Data, Backtests, & Track Records

6 mars 2020 | 5 min

BO29: Trend Following vs Buy & Hold

5 mars 2020 | 6 min

BO28: Long Trades Vs. Short Trades

4 mars 2020 | 6 min

BO27: 2019 In Review – The Investor’s RetroSpective

3 mars 2020 | 13 min

SI77: Trading through the quickest 10% correction in stock market history

1 mars 2020 | 75 min

After the quickest 10% correction straight from an all-time-high in stock market history last week, we discuss how human emotions & behaviours played their part, the threat of the coronavirus and its effect on world economies, why a week is too short a time to judge if CTAs are providing ‘crisis alpha’, and why short-term systems should have performed really well during the selloff. Questions we cover include: How do you define ‘signal strength’? Do you use stop-losses, and if so, how? Can you apply Trend Following systems to micro futures contracts?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:20 – Macro recap from Niels

03:00 – Weekly review of performance

14:13 – Top Tweets

39:45 – Brian; Question 1: Have any of your guests mentioned the use of different rules for different markets?

44:25 – Jacob; Question 2: What are the criteria for deciding to change your rules?

51:29 – Adrian; Question 3: How do you define signal strength?

55:46 – Jonathan; Question 4: If you use stop-losses, how do you use them?

01:02:51 – Craig; Question 5: How regularly should you communicate with your clients?

01:08:20 – Russ; Question 6: Can I apply a trend following trading system to micro futures contracts?

01:11:22 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI76: Can trading too many markets prevent you from achieving above average returns?

23 februari 2020 | 62 min

In today’s episode, we discuss whether attempting to trade every market at the same time may hinder any conviction necessary for above-average returns, as well as debate the difference between a portfolio with plenty of trades across lots of different markets versus one with less positions among fewer markets. We also cover the Hedge Fund Journal’s recent interview with Harold De Boer of Transtrend, the amount of truly uncorrelated markets available to trade, how much discretion should be used during the design & implementation of a systematic trading strategy, and if the accusation is true that CTAs are the main catalyst behind price shocks.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:13 – Macro recap from Niels

02:33 – Weekly review of returns

06:52 – Top Tweets

47:36 – Michael; Question 1: Who inspired you into Trend Following trading?

59:16 – Performance recap

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI75: Morgan Housel on history being a bad guide for the future

16 februari 2020 | 60 min

On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:12 – Macro recap from Niels

02:59 – Weekly review of performance

05:23 – Top Tweets

34:12 – Michael; Question 1: Would avoiding all S&P500 stocks improve a Trend Following system?

36:57 – Chris; Question 2: Can you explain the term ‘Vol Targeting’?

43:40 – Adrian: Question 3: What recent client requests have you refused to accommodate, when it comes to altering either your strategies, or your business?

53:31 – Francois; Comment related to recent episodes where we discussed Trend Following on equities

57:24 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI74: Trading TESLA during its parabolic move

8 februari 2020 | 73 min

This week, we discuss how Jerry approached his Tesla trade during last week’s parabolic move up, the value of sleeping well at night in comparison to chasing maximum returns, whether Trend Following models can be successfully tilted toward ESG (Sustainable) Investments, thoughts on Negative & Positive Skew, the perceived drawbacks of CTA diversification when stocks are going up, and we also compare Trend Following on stocks, to a fully diversified, Trend Following system. Questions we answer this week include: What do you do next when you have a significant amount of new AUM? Do you have any tips or methods, whether psychologically or built into your models, for handling euphoric gains? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market, do you recommend when constructing a Trading Universe?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:08 – Macro recap from Niels

01:44 – Weekly review of performance

04:59 – Top Tweets

18:45 – Announcement of special guest Eric Crittenden, from Standpoint Asset Management, joining us on the show in a few weeks

26:21 – Jacob; Question 1: When you have a significant amount of new available equity, what do you do next?

32:57 – James; Question 2: How do you manage a position that makes a Parabolic move, such as Tesla?

41:18 – Matt: Question 3: What methods do you use to handle euphoric gains?

01:01:51 – Camron; Question 4: What is the best way to compile a Trading Universe? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market?

01:04:42 – Sam; Question 5: Are you aware of any Trend Following Traders who tilt towards ESG (Sustainable Investing)?

01:07:23 – Seth; In response to last week’s request to listeners, shares how he thinks TF should be best described as an important part of your portfolio

01:10:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI73: How too much experience can work against your investments

3 februari 2020 | 98 min

On today’s show, we discuss when having lots of experience can sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio. Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals? Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio? Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems? How do you define short, medium and long-term?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:11 – Macro recap from Niels

02:41 – Weekly review of performance

14:14 – Top Tweets

55:44 – Mike; Questions 1: Is Trend Following a Dynamic Call Replication strategy?

01:00:39 – Seth; Question 2: Do you use Trend Filters to confirm the entry signal?

01:04:10 – Michael; Question 3: Is the daily volatility of a 60/40 portfolio less than that of the ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio?

01:08:12 – Brian; Listener comment regarding the best way to explain why Trend Following should play a considerable part in all portfolios.

01:14:33 – Dave; Question 4: When using multiple lookback periods, should risk per trade always stay the same?

01:16:02 – Yohan; Question 5: Do you scale into a trade throughout the day, depending on market liquidity, or just enter the full trade upon getting the signal?

01:18:27 – Drew; Question 6: What does your day-to-day look like?

01:20:43 – Yohan; Question 7: Why not combine mean-reversion strategies with your Trend Following strategies?

01:25:49 – Paul; Question 8: Would testing markets that you don’t plan to trade, give added clarity to your backtests?

01:29:22 – Singh; Question 9: How do you define short, medium and long-term timeframes?

01:34:01 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI72: Crisis and how CTAs provide protection during stock market declines

26 januari 2020 | 78 min

Today, we discuss how CTAs provide Investors with protection during stock market declines, how the term Crisis Alpha may be linked to reduced allocations to CTAs, the psychology behind managers chasing performance, worthwhile allocation percentages to Trend Following, short-term vs long-term CTA strategies, Trend Following as the perfect portfolio, and Diversification as a way to reduce risk. Questions answered this week include: What are some of the pros and cons of CFD trading, and do you have any tips for building a portfolio of CFDs? Should instruments that rarely make money be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:25 – Macro recap from Niels

02:41 – Weekly review of performance

18:39 – Top Tweets

54:51 – Andy (via TTU VoiceMail); Questions 1/2: What are some pros & cons of CFD trading? Do you have any tips for building a CFD portfolio?

01:02:56 – James; Question 3: Should instruments that rarely ever make money, be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?

01:14:22 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI71: The "quant winter" and the reliability of fundamental analysis

20 januari 2020 | 90 min

This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as a reliable indicator for the future. Questions we cover include: Do you have to be a coder, or hire one, to be a successful Trend Follower? What do you do when you have more signals than available capital? When adding new securities to your Trading Universe, do you resize current positions to accommodate? Is a stock in motion, more likely to stay in motion?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:47 – Macro recap from Niels

04:19 – Weekly review of performance

18:39 – Top Tweets

55:34 – Keith; Questions 1/2: What is the name of Jerry’s bird? What do you do when you have more signals than capital available? When adding new markets to a system, do you resize existing trades to accommodate?

01:03:10 – Neil; Question 3: If a stock is moving or flat, is it likely to continue in the same form?

01:09:11 – Mike; Question 4: What are the differences between Trend Followers & Technical Analysts?

01:13:02 – Andrew; Question 5: Is long-only Trading on Forex recommended?

01:16:46 – George; Question 6: Do you have to be a coder (or hire one), to be a successful Trend Follower?

01:27:37 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI70: How to design and backtest your system ft. Andreas Clenow (Part 2)

14 januari 2020 | 29 min

Today we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:54 – Niels; Question One: How does one go about choosing parameters for their Trading models? Question Two: Do you stick with your model, or do you look to recalibrate it over time?

07:37 – Jerry; Question Two: Have you noticed that longer-term systems have always produced better results than shorter-term, even though we may think otherwise? How important are drawdowns when analysing performance?

13:48 – Moritz; Question One: Would you still go out and start a Trend Following fund today? If so, how would you go out and raise the initial AUM?

16:25 – Niels; Question Two: How should CTAs & Trend Followers present themselves? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label?

22:32 – Niels; Question Three: If you could invite 4 people to dinner, from past or present, who would you choose?

24:00 – Niels; Question Four: Anything you would like to share regarding your latest book?

26:23 – Brian; Question One: Do you think Options strategies distort Trends and the performance of Trend Following strategies?

27:08 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI69: Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence and how to overcome it

5 januari 2020 | 77 min

In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that can work during all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:09 – Macro recap from Niels

14:06 – Weekly review of performance

19:18 – Top tweets

49:01 – Question 1: Sam; Is it worth diversifying away from developed markets?

55:22 – Question 2: Edmund; Can you recommend any detailed backtesting software with the ability to test variable position sizes?

58:12 – Question 3: Drew; What causes you to make adjustments to your models?

01:06:14 – Question 4: Sebastian; Why is it so hard to be a successful Trend Follower, when it seems we as Humans innately like to follow trends anyway (ie. fashion, social media, tech)?

01:12:39 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:16 – Send your questions in for our upcoming special guest, Andreas Clenow

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI68: The surprising relationship between volatility and risk

29 december 2019 | 83 min

In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitments of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:55 – Macro recap from Niels

03:10 – Weekly review of performance

18:41 – Top tweets

43:29 – Question 1: Woody; Is Trend Following another form of predicting price moves?

01:00:18 – Question 2 William; Do you follow the weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report?

01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update

01:08:52 – End of year recap

01:19:32 – Top tweets (cont.)

01:20:59 – Thank you to our listeners in 2019

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI67: The psychology of predictions

23 december 2019 | 66 min

This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:37 – Macro recap from Niels

03:10 – Weekly review of performance

11:55 – Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)

50:48 – Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020

53:47 – Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?

57:50 – Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?

01:03:37 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI66: Why price is a better guide to higher returns than expert opinion

15 december 2019 | 59 min

In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinion, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:21 – Macro recap from Niels

02:57 – Weekly review of performance

06:12 – Top tweets

50:48 – Announcement of podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020

51:23 – Question 1: Drew; Should you enter a breakout trade based on an intra-day signal or end of day signal?

56:26 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI65: How doing less can ensure bigger and better returns over time

9 december 2019 | 69 min

This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades might be the essential part of a winning system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers. Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment? Should you adjust past data for volatility?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:21 – Macro recap from Niels

04:11 – Weekly review of performance

07:27 – Top tweets

51:16 – Questions 1: Dane; How far should your backtest go?

54:38 – Question 2: Neal; Do you have a minimum average daily volume when trading stocks?

56:24 – Questions 3/4: James; When using multiple entry signals, do you also use multiple exit signals? When setting up systems & doing testing, should you adjust past data for intended volatility-weighted position sizing? Can emerging managers within the hedge fund space still succeed, among pressure for low fees, the cost of running business, & the popularity of indexing?

01:05:18 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI64: The difference between Warehousing vs Recognising Risk

2 december 2019 | 76 min

This week, we discuss the differences between recognising risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into positions?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:11 – Origins of Black Friday

02:43 – Weekly review of performance

11:45 – Top tweets

40:52 – Questions 1/2: Michael; Can the number of trades a system signals, give insight as to how well optimized the system is? Is there a guideline for the number of trades a system should be signalling, for each chosen timeframe (such as Daily/Weekly)?

45:34 – Question 3: Richard; Comment- ‘No deterioration in the overall compound growth-rate of long-term Diversified Systematic Funds, post-2000.’

46:53 – Questions 4/5: Bing; Why don’t we risk more per trade? Is trader psychology the main reason for the importance placed on position sizing?

53:21 – Question 6: Jacob; Can you give examples of strategies that ‘warehouse’ risk?

56:41 – Question 7: Nathan; How do we define the parameters of a Trend?

01:01:37 – Question 8: Chad; Do you scale into a position, or go straight to the chosen max risk of equity per security?

01:05:51 – Questions 9/10: Chris; What should I do with surplus cash once my system reaches its maximum number of positions allowed to be traded simultaneously? Has the average margin requirements for Bitcoin changed?

01:11:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:24:44 – Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI63: Are stock pickers overrated?

24 november 2019 | 87 min

Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:57 – Macro recap from Niels

01:55 – Weekly review of performance

08:22 – Top tweets

46:30 – Questions 1/2: Derek; How do you adapt Trend Following models for a constrained universe of markets? How do you educate fundamental Traders about quant investing?

53:31 – Questions 3/4/5: Jonathan; Does having a 5000 sample size backtest apply to each market in each system? Do you use out-of-sample testing? Do you optimize using multiple time-periods?

01:00:37 – Questions 6/7: Indrius; How do you use ATR? Do you take less risk per market as you trade more positions?

01:04:22 – Question 8/9: Brian; How many other Trend Following managers should you invest in? How would you seek out other managers to invest in?

01:12:13 – Question 10: Maurici; Do you use the same stop-loss for every position?

01:19:15 – Question 11: Michael; Why incur personnel costs if all you need is a computer to run your systems?

01:23:37 – Benchmark performance update

01:24:44 – Final thoughts; Is it becoming harder to be a discretionary macro trader?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI62: The benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio

17 november 2019 | 76 min

In this week’s edition, we discuss the possible benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio, whether or not you need to have a ‘feel’ for the markets before constructing a model, the new all-time highs on the Dow, Trend Following as a viable solution to the end of the 60/40 portfolio, and the longer-term drawbacks of chasing performance from different fund managers. Questions we cover this week include: What really went wrong with LTCM? Should Trend Followers also employ Buy & Hold strategies? Is it ok to ‘leave money on the table’? How would you go about getting into the CTA industry?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Events review

04:00 – Weekly review of performance

17:10 – Top tweets

51:50 – Question 1: Carl; Is the stop price impacted by the cost of execution?

55:30 – Question 2: Saleh; Can you design a system that works in both trending markets and range bound markets?

01:01:55 – Question 3: Edrico; When adding new markets, do you consider correlations to existing markets in a system?

01:04:10 – Question 4: Glen; How would you break into the CTA industry?

01:13:35 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI61: Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies

10 november 2019 | 74 min

In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge. Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions? Do you only trade Breakouts or do you also use indicators? Does less volatility mean more robustness? Do you trade ETFs?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Live event review

02:45 – Weekly review of performance

10:40- Voicemail from Jim

13:20 – Top tweets

36:05 – Question 1: Matt; Do you use indicators beyond price action and new highs/lows?

42:00 – Questions 2/3: James; How do you calculate sample size? Does each lookback window need to be treated independently or should risk be managed in aggregate?

51:40 – Questions 4/5: Brian; Why are more volatile systems considered more robust? Does lower volatility lead to better compound returns?

01:06:40 – Question 6: Gaetano; Do you trade ETFs?

01:10:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:11:00- Ray Dalio discussion

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI60: The dangers of "Home" bias and the benefits of Diversification

3 november 2019 | 69 min

This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, DUNN’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 years in the business, why Trend Following strategies are more than just the ‘perfect hedge’, ways that Trend Following can be applied to life, and we touch Abbey Capital’s recent article regarding Trend Following performance over the current decade, compared to previous decades. Questions answered this week include: Should long and short entries be symmetrical? Should you limit position sizing in particular markets? What do you define as a small loss?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Macro recap from Niels

02:20- Weekly review of performance

09:00 – Top tweets

35:05 – Questions 1/2: David; Should a bearish strategy mirror a bullish strategy (i.e. 100 day hi/lo entry for both)? Should you expect bearish strategies to do as well as bullish strategies?

39:45 – Question 3: Walter; Do you have position size limits on individual contracts?

44:15 – Question 4: Neil; What is the definition of a “small loss”?

49:50 – Benchmark performance update

50:55 – Discussion of Abbey Capital white paper

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI59: The dangers of investing in "stories" but why we all do it

29 oktober 2019 | 55 min

On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, the importance of avoiding Outcome Bias, how cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer. Questions we answer this week include: Do you prefer simple or exponential Moving Averages? Should you use the closing price or the settlement price? Do you measure ATR from the closing price or settlement price? How would you best illustrate trend strength over particular periods of time?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Live event recap

06:00 – Macro recap from Niels

09:55 – Weekly review of returns

12:45 Niels describes his trend indicator

16:40 – Top tweets

34:55 – Questions 1/2: Scott; Do you prefer a specific type of moving average? Do you use settlement or last trade in your models?

38:50 – Question 3: Carl; Do you calculate ATR using the closing price (versus entry price)?

40:30 – Question 4: Nathan; How do you articulate the current volatility environment versus history?

50:00 – Benchmark performance update

51:40 – More live event comments

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI58: The consequences of Bank of America declaring the END of the 60/40 portfolio

19 oktober 2019 | 67 min

This week, we discuss Bank of America’s declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is the best investing advice you have ever received? Should Trend Following funds screen potential clients? How do you deal with positions that show no price movement for a period of time?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Macro recap from Niels

04:10 – Weekly review of performance

07:00 - Top tweets

38:00 – Question 1: Jacob; How do you do actual executions (order types, manual, etc.)?

40:50 – Question 2: Jacob; When you get a fill, how do you set your stop?

42:40 – Question 3: Jacob; What happens if a stop is hit on the day of entry?

45:40 - Question 4: Mannik; What sample size is sufficient for a backtest?

49:30 – Questions 5/6: Craig; Should TF investors be screened for patience? What personality traits are best for TF and the required patience?

57:40- Questions 7/8: Dimitri; How do you handle positions that haven’t moved in a long time? Does the potential for a large move increase the longer a price goes sideways?

01:03:20 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI57: Why investors confuse volatility & noise with risk & instability

13 oktober 2019 | 65 min

On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility? What really is a ‘fat tail’? Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments? Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:15 - Macro recap from Niels

08:15 - Top tweets

45:45 - Question 1: Gaetano; Is it reasonable to TF volatility/VIX futures?

50:00 - Debate: Can TF make money in a rising rate environment?

01:01:20 - Benchmark performance update

01:03:30 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI56: The risk of smooth and steady returns for risk avers investors

7 oktober 2019 | 78 min

This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach? How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy? What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - Request for podcast reviews

01:30 - Macro recap from Niels

04:00 - Weekly review of performance

11:10 - Top tweets

43:25 - Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull

44:20 - Question 1: Chris; What should an individual pay in fees (data, commissions, etc.)?

47:45 - Question 2: Chris; Do you follow front month or highest open interest contracts/continuous contracts or the month you are trading?

54:30 - Question 3: Jacob; Have you encountered extremely low frequency CTAs?

01:00:20 - Question 4: Jacob; What is your opinion on optimizing using ideas (vs data) first?

01:03:50 - Question 5: Jacob; How do you feel about TF meets value investing?

01:08:30 - Question 6: Adrian; What does discipline mean to you and how do you stay disciplined?

01:15:00 - Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU111: Alignment of Interest ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 2of2

2 oktober 2019 | 55 min

Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I continue our conversation with Alan Sheen, talking about how and why he designed Dalton Street Capital’s investment strategy the way he did, and how it has performed compared to the market average over the past three years. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Alan’s strategies are different from traditional managed futures, his managerial approach that enables employees to innovate, and what an investor should ask a potential manager when doing their due diligence.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Alan developed a hedging strategy based on volatility and liquidity
The connection between the Australian and US markets
Why Alan does not trade in US markets in his intra-day strategy
Why Dalton Street Capital focuses on Australiasian markets
Where Dalton Street Capital’s return profile comes from
Why Alan also trades in medium to long-term trend following
How Dalton Street Capital’s equity portfolio performs against the market average
Alan’s perspective on model decay
Why alignment of interest is important in an investment strategy
How Alan approaches market research
What questions should investors be asking themselves

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI55: Aligning your investments with the best odds and why the Sharpe needs salt

29 september 2019 | 74 min

In this week’s episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, DUNN Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers’, and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Reading of various podcast reviews

03:00 – Macro recap from Niels

06:20 – Weekly review of performance

10:15 – Discussion of Mercer Trend Following paper

18:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; Special Guest: Denise Shull

20:35 – Top tweets

36:10 – Questions 1/2/3: Eric; Do you hedge with OTM options? Can you use options to trade trends? Will HFT algos negatively impact TF systems?

41:40 – Question 4: Sam; Should stop distance (ATR multiple) adjust with the trend speed?

47:50 – Question 5: Noobe; Are there any contracts a new manager should avoid?

54:20 – Question 6: Clay; With minimal trading activity, what do TF do all day?

01:00:50 – Question 7: Giangitano; Should you have real stop orders in the market (vs stop alerts)?

01:09:20 – Benchmark performance update

01:10:15 – Closing thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU110: The Opportunity of Volatility ft. Alan Sheen of Dalton Street Capital – 1of2

25 september 2019 | 40 min

Today on Top Traders Unplugged, I’m speaking with Alan Sheen, Founder and CIO of Dalton Street Capital. Alan has an interesting background in science and engineering, and also spent time in the military, which allowed him to later thrive in rules-based investing. He’s also the first Australian manager to be on the podcast. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about Alan’s journey from the Australian military to starting his own investment firm, why investors should look at volatility not as risk but as an opportunity, and what an investor’s own personal car says about their investment strategies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What Alan’s childhood was like in Australia
Why Alan studied aeronautical engineering
How Alan equates gas-turbine engines with robust investing
How Alan’s experience in the military helps him as an investor
How Alan was influenced by Darwin’s “The Origin of the Species”
Quantitative investment’s prevalence in Australia in the early ’90s
The influence the VIX Index had on Alan’s career
How Alan’s hedging strategy turned into a managed futures strategy
Why Alan use an equity portfolio as collateral instead of cash
How volatility can be opportunity and a friend
How Berkshire Hathaway has benefited from a volatile market
The importance of an investment manager to personalize their hedge funds

-----

Links Mentioned:

Sensation Seeking and Hedge Funds

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI54: Why NOT losing money is more important than missing opportunities

22 september 2019 | 69 min

In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned in a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that ‘the best investments were the ones that were left alone’, what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Weekly recap from Niels

04:10 – Weekly review of performance

09:00 – Top tweets

39:00 – Question 1: Francois; How do you stay cool after a bad week trading?

48:30 – Question 2: Adrian; What is the optimal level of trading activity in a robust system?

52:20 – Question 3: James; Should CTAs offer the same program with different vol targets?

01:02:00 – Question 4: James; Is Jerry trading individual stocks or a basket of stocks?

01:05:45 – Benchmark Performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT27: Why Emotion overrides cognition...dramatically ft. Daniel Crosby – 2of2

18 september 2019 | 37 min

On today’s episode, Niels continues his conversation with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Niels and Daniel discuss how emotion affects investment decision-making, the problem with financial media, and what investors can do to correct their bad investment behavior.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The key points of dealing with emotion as an investor
Why rules are better than goals
Daniel’s Four “C”s of investing
The importance of rule-following for investment managers
What is the role of clarity in investing
Why an overabundance of data can be detrimental to decision-making
The role of courageousness in investments
Why process over outcome is important
Why volatility is not the same as risk

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Daniel on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI53: Why most successful Hedge Funds employ Systematic strategies

16 september 2019 | 71 min

In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Continuous Contracts. Questions answered this week include: Should you beware of high win percentages? Are large drawdowns a normal part of Trend Following? What are the largest up or down moves we’ve ever experienced?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:05 – Macro recap from Niels

05:50 – Weekly review of performance

14:55 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

15:20 – Top tweets

45:40 – Question 1: Sam; What are the biggest performance moves (up/down) in your career?

54:40 – Question 2: Sam; Why do some trade long-only (versus long-short)?

57:45- Questions 3/4: Bruno; What do you think about using cash versus futures to calculate trends/create systems? Is there a way to value a commodity?

01:04:40 – Benchmark performance update

01:05:50 – Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

MacroVoices: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen on Algorithmic Trading & Trend Following

13 september 2019 | 59 min

RT26: Overcoming behavioural biases ft. Daniel Crosby – 1of2

12 september 2019 | 32 min

On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Dr. Daniel Crosby, Chief Behavior Officer of Brinker Capital, and the host of The Standard Deviation Podcast. Dr. Crosby came to investment management through clinical psychology and therefore has a unique perspective on behavioral economics. The discussion ranges from how human behavior is evolutionarily ill-equipped for investment management, the importance of having rules for investing during turbulent times, and what investors can do to modify their behavior for success.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What makes Daniel’s background rare in investment management
How the eradication of Guinea Worm is relevant to investing behavior
Why the evolution of human behavior is antithetical to investing
How being a quantitative investor is beneficial to overcoming bad behavioral economics
The correlation between activity and success in the markets
What are the building blocks of behavioral finance
Why “I don’t know” is the most under-appreciated phrase in investing
The role of conservatism in behavioral economics

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Daniel on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI52: Working with legendary Paul Tudor Jones ft. Peter Borish

10 september 2019 | 82 min

In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his role at Quad Group, his experience working with Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having solid business partners during the best and worst of times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading coaches, and we also get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets. We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to change your models? How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent? Can the collapse of Passive Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:20- Weekly review of performance

05:30 – Voicemail from Jim

07:20 – Peter Borish journey

11:10 – Moritz: What sparked your interest in trading?

12:50 – Jerry: What are your opinions on me/CTAs and the evolution/future of the industry?

18:00 – Niels: Can you comment on Tony Robbins coaching Paul Tudor Jones?

22:20 – Niels: Do systematic traders need coaches?

29:40 – Moritz: How do you balance sticking to a system vs changing/evolving?

41:25 – Niels: How would you pitch TF nowadays to attract more investors?

47:10 – Jerry: How should systematic and discretionary be combined?

51:25 – Jerry: Do famous macro traders use trend but not talk about it?

57:25 – Niels: Do you think famous traders deep down are systematic?

59:10 – Niels: Please explain Quad Group and your role.

01:02:05 – Niels: How many managers do you evaluate and how many make the cut?

01:03:50 – Jerry: What’s your view on the future of hedge funds and CTAs?

01:04:50 – Jerry: What is your current macro view?

01:08:25 – Moritz: Is Quad’s trading systematic or discretionary?

01:09:50 – Niels: How do you give people a specific loss limit at Quad but also want them to follow systems that may perform worse than backtests/history?

01:14:40 – Jerry: How do you help a trader grow his AUM/business

01:17:00 – Niels: What questions do you ask potential managers?

01:18:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI51: Improving Diversification through multiple trading approaches

2 september 2019 | 73 min

In this week’s show, we discuss using multiple systems to further enhance diversification, the differences between a portfolio meeting expectations versus benchmarking it against an Index, Trend Following in-house versus using an experienced Systematic Investment manager, having the temperament to stay the course with your investments, and the effectiveness of trying to predict the next moves of CTAs. Questions answered this week include: Are interest rates lower than usual at the moment? Does the market ever display any meaningful sentiments from the crowds? Do we use any rules for liquidity? What questions would we consider before allocating to a Systematic Trading strategy? What’s the maximum loss of equity we would be willing to accept due to one return driver, such as the Swiss Franc in 2015, and do we ever have to ‘step-in’ and override our systems?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI50: Why great investing is counter-intuitive to Human Nature

25 augusti 2019 | 86 min

Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to Human Nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios. Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors? Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ actually true? How important is it to have access to vast amounts of data? How much capital is needed to operate a profitable & diversified Trend Following portfolio? What questions should Investors be asking Fund Managers? Do we use Volume as part of our strategies?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Macro recap from Niels

02:40 – Weekly review of performance

07:45 – Voicemail from Sam

10:15 – Top tweets

44:20 – Question 1: George; With small AUM, should traders/investors outsource TF?

01:04:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

01:05:00 – Questions 2/3: James; What are the most misunderstood parts of TF? What questions should investors be asking?

01:19:50 – Questions 4/5: James; Do you look at volume or just price? If correlations pick up, do you alter your system?

01:22:45 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI49: Morgan Housel's universal laws of investing and the importance of investor behaviour

19 augusti 2019 | 77 min

Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of Investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of Investing, the differences between Buy-and-Hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, as well as the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is Inter-Market Analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute? Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements? What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Macro recap from Niels

03:40 – Weekly review of performance

08:30 – Top tweets

59:30 – Question 1: Craig; If less TF market participants exist, shouldn’t trends be slower and more random on ST horizons?

01:12:45 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

01:13:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:15:00 – Challenge to Sam to record the first message

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI48: The state of the Bond market and do Institutions affect CTA performance

10 augusti 2019 | 73 min

This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Macro recap from Niels

03:25 – Weekly review of performance

12:20 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1, Sam: What is the benchmark TF Sharpe ratio?

43:00 – Question 2, Sam: Can there be too much diversification?

53:15 – Question 3, Walter: Please discuss how you deal with foreign currency denominated futures.

58:10 – Question 4, Walter: Since most stocks don’t beat the index or T-bills, shouldn’t shorting be easy (versus the conventional wisdom shorting is hard)?

01:03:00 – Questions 5 & 6, Jeff: What are the risks of using larger (vs smaller) ATR multiples for exits? What kind of exits does DUNN use?

01:08:40 – Benchmark performance update

01:09:40 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI47: Don't fall in Love with your positions

5 augusti 2019 | 81 min

This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison when gauging Trend Following performance? Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies? Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Request for podcast reviews

02:45 – Macro recap from Niels

06:45 – Weekly review of performance

08:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

09:50 – Top tweets

44:30 – Question 1: Sandeep; Please discuss market correlations.

49:40 – Questions 2/3: James; When adding new markets to a system, what are you looking for? How do you calculate trend strength?

01:00:30 – Question 4: Dante; What strategy should one use in high volatility periods?

01:04:30 – Question 5: Ali; How do you pick the markets in your system?

01:09:20 – Question 6: Ali; Will Jerry please discuss how he trades single stocks

01:13:00 – Question 7: Ali; Can you recommend a broker?

01:14:15 – Question 8: Ali; Please discuss margin to equity and position sizing

01:18:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO26: Behavioral Finance, Crisis Alpha & the Adaptive Market Hypothesis

31 juli 2019 | 15 min

When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors. Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering. Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful. So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI46: Are commodities more risky to trade than equities?

29 juli 2019 | 77 min

This week, we discuss whether commodities are more risky to trade than equities, if a stocks-only Trend Following strategy can be profitable in the long run, if a deep drawdown is worse than a long drawdown, and the importance of over-estimating any possible drawdowns implied by a backtest. Questions answered include: should all Trend Following funds be required to provide Crisis Alpha? Is there ever a good time to override your system and trade outside of the rules? Should you always execute trades from your signals immediately, or wait for an extra confirmation sometimes? Is there an edge to be gained from seeking the perfect entry into a long-term trade? How many positions should you have open at any one time? What can be considered a good amount of leverage?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Request for podcast reviews from listeners

02:15 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels

07:50 – Weekly review of performance

12:50 – Top tweets

58:50 – Questions 1/2/3: James; Why don’t you like the original Turtle system? What systems do you prefer? Regarding entries/exits, do you prefer executing intraday, on close, etc.?

01:06:20 – Question 4: James; What is the average leverage in your portfolio and how many positions do you hold at any one time?

01:12:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:14:00 – Discussion of Salem Abraham decision to revamp his business away from a classic CTA Trend Following shop

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO25: Un-Learning, Keeping an Open Mind & The Legacy of AHL

24 juli 2019 | 13 min

It has been said that: ‘The biggest room of all, is the room for improvement’, and one thing that is clear to see in the amazing careers of today’s guests, is the continued hunger for learning in the quest for an improved investment process. This has led to an unprecedented success for this trio. Today, I share the last key insights from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we don’t just discuss the importance of learning… but also how you must un-learn certain things in order to move forward. Lastly, we discuss what the three of them wish the legacy of AHL will be. So, sit back and relax and enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI45: Ray Dailo's paradigm shift and Gold as a safe-haven

21 juli 2019 | 78 min

In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters that keep you from entering a trade, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ trade recommendations from others, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, and the reasons for buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:30 – Macro recap from Niels

03:30 – Weekly review of performance

06:30 – Discussion of Ray Dalio article

10:00 – Jerry’s highlights for the week

12:15 – Discussion of paper on TF speeds

27:00 – Top tweets

58:30 – Questions 1/2: Harsh; Can you have different exits for longs and shorts? Can stop distance adjust dynamically based on profit?

01:06:00 – Question 3: Sebastian; Can you trade without pain/fear if you deeply believe in your approach?

01:14:15 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO24: The Importance of Asset Allocation & Patience

17 juli 2019 | 25 min

In 1987, 3 scientists, 1 from Cambridge and 2 from Oxford, were brought together by their shared passion for the markets and for computers. Little did they know, that over the next 3 decades, this passion would lead them to build 3 world-leading multi-billion dollar Systematic Investment businesses. Today, I would like to share another Golden Nugget with you, from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we focus on how markets and the importance of Asset Allocation have evolved since the beginning; a crucial insight into what has made them so successful. So enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI44: Should you buy the new 98-year Austrian Bond? and Volatility vs Risk targeting

15 juli 2019 | 80 min

On this week’s episode, we discuss the resurgence of ‘boutique’ funds, the new Austrian bond which promises a yield of 1.2% over 98 years, why having new markets to Trade can be good thing, and the differences between Volatility Targeting, versus adjusting overall risk exposure according to market conditions. Questions answered this week include, should you really trade a strategy that suits you? What is the ideal sample size when backtesting data, and should you pay attention to valuation when entering a Trending market?

(**Due to a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, his sound quality is not as good as usual. Our apologies for this.)

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

BO23: Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers...the AHL Trilogy

10 juli 2019 | 14 min

One of the great Investment books of all time is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, which is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous Financial Speculator of all time: Jesse Livermore. There is no doubt that even today, 100 years later, we can all learn from of the experiences of successful Investors.

In this Best of Top Traders Unplugged, which I have appropriately titled Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers, Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL, finally shed light on one of the best kept secrets of modern finance. I sat down with them in Abbey Road Studios in London, on the 30-year anniversary of when they founded AHL. The conversation turned out to be witty, inspiring, and far more entertaining than it had any right to be. So, enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI43: Cliff Asness on the difficulty on sticking to a strategy through volatile periods

8 juli 2019 | 61 min

In this episode, we discuss the recent article from AQR Capital’s Cliff Asness on the difficulty of sticking to a strategy through volatile periods, why we may never know if a particular system is broken, the differences between different Trading timeframes, and we give an update on the upcoming live event in New York in October. We also answer some questions such as: Is there a ‘Holy Grail’ of Stop Losses? What is a good way to backtest a Trading system? Is there a point where too much Diversification begins to negatively affect the return profile in a portfolio? What are the possible causes that would move a person to Trade a longer timeframe?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro/Macro recap from Niels

02:45 – Weekly review of performance

11:30 – Top tweets

20:30 – Question 1: James; Where can one find more information on stop losses/risk mgmt?

28:00 – Question 2: Brian; What software do you recommend for backtesting?

31:50 – Question 3: Paul; Discussion of the multiple facets of diversification

38:00 – Question 4: James; Can there be too much diversification?

51:15 – Question 5: Sam; What made Jerry decide to shift to longer-term trading?

55:20 – Benchmark performance update

56:30 – Live event update

Other resources discussed:

AQR Paper Reference: Quant Cassandra

Article Reference: Wes Gray- Trend Following A Decade of Underperformance & The Epitome of No Pain, No Gain

Basso Research: How This Random Entry Method Beat The Market

Book 1: Van Tharp’s Definitive Guide to Position Sizing Strategies

Book 2: Van Tharp’s Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI42: Are Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding right about Trend Following? ft. Salem Abraham

1 juli 2019 | 93 min

Today we’re joined on the show by Salem Abraham, a legendary Trend Follower, and President of Abraham Trading Company based in Canadian, Texas. We discuss if Bitcoin has any real value, how Jerry Parker influenced Salem early in his career (and how he was able to help Jerry), why we don’t need to understand the reasons for a price going up, how looking at your returns too often can affect your performance, if Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding are right about the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, and how being exposed to a variety of markets can reduce risk in a portfolio. Questions answered include: what is Salem’s preferred timeframe to trade in? Why is there such an increase in Return Dispersion among Trend Following funds today, compared to a while ago? What are Salem’s thoughts on High-Frequency Trading, Electronic Trading, and Arbitrage? Will Trend Following ever become too over-crowded?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:45 – Weekly review of Performance including Salem’s thoughts

15:35 – Salem describes his background and discussion ensues

47:00 – Top tweets

01:09:30 – Question: What do you think about the markets being made up of more computers (vs humans)?

01:30:15 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI41: Bitcoin's recent rally and benefits of trading single stocks

23 juni 2019 | 94 min

On today’s episode, we give our thoughts on the recent Bitcoin rally, the possible benefits of trading single stocks rather than indices, how spending less time looking at the markets can benefit your Trading, and we also offer some other suggestions for better Trading Discipline. Questions answered this week include: what are the main characteristics of a successful Trader? How often should you change your parameter combinations? How short-term did The Turtles trade, and how does that compare to Jerry’s Trading style today? What is the definition of long-term Trading, and should CTAs be more longer-term in their strategies?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein

16 juni 2019 | 100 min

This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED

05:35 – Weekly review of performance

08:50 - Corey's journey

22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When

35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken?

42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?

52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!

56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?

01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?

01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.

01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?

01:21:20 – Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10 years out…unlike most other things in life?

01:27:00 – Question: Do you think past performance is a guide?

01:29:15 – Question from Christian: Do you think more information in models adds value?

01:33:00 – Question from another Moritz: How do you invest personally?

01:36:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO22: You don’t need to be a Genius if you can Stick to a Plan

11 juni 2019 | 21 min

In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget. Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI39: How to trade the VIX and do Trend Followers have an edge?

9 juni 2019 | 72 min

Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:55 – Weekly review of performance

11:50 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

13:00 – Top tweets

45:00 – Discussion of Goldman Sachs paper on TF

52:20 – Discussion of Morningstar “bubble” portfolio article

56:10 – Discussion of Real Vision video on volatility

57:00 – Discussion of FT article on South Korea

01:00:00 – Question 1: Ryan; Can the VIX be traded as part of a TF strategy?

01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update

01:09:00 – Next week’s special guest is Corey Hoffstein

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO21: Trading for a Living

6 juni 2019 | 16 min

The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned, and usually the hard way. For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions. In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to. So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be ideal for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI38: Process over outcome and how sports relates to trading

2 juni 2019 | 93 min

This week, we discuss the importance of process over outcome, how sports can be related to Trading, and whether mistakes are to be avoided completely or something we should look forward to learning from. Questions answered this week include: is Ray Dalio’s suggestion of 15 uncorrelated return streams the ultimate way to diversify your portfolio? Are some markets more tradable for Trend Followers than others? Is market ‘noise’ making it harder for Trend Followers, or is the volatility a good thing? How do you deal with strategic retirement decisions as a Trend Follower? Is it in a Hedge Fund’s best interests to stay relatively small and private?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:30 – Weekly review of performance

10:15 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19

11:30 – Top tweets

40:30 – Question 1: Jack; When/how do you decide to change a losing TF system?

49:20 – Question 2: Werner; How do you decide not to add a specific market to a TF system?

57:15 – Question 3: Sam; Should investors decrease risk as they near retirement?, and if so…How?

01:24:30 – Discussion of noise vs volatility paper by Michele Cocchiglia & Stefan Martinek of Kelonia Capital Management: Deconstructing Noise – A closer look at the notion of noise, its definition and potential impact in today’s market environment.

01:29:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO20: How to start & grow a CTA business

28 maj 2019 | 19 min

I get a lot of questions about ideas to help build the best Trading Model, and I understand why many aspiring managers feel that this is critical to their future success. There is though, a lot of truth in the saying: “Most people overvalue ideas and underestimate execution”.

What I mean by that is, when you want to start and build a business such as a Hedge Fund or CTA, I’m not so sure that the real challenge lies within the design of your investment approach. Nowadays, I think that raising the initial funds from Seed or Early investors have actually become the biggest obstacle for new managers. This is something I have a long experience with, and this is why I wanted to focus on it, in today’s post. So I thought that Kim Bang, who spent many years at a big firm like Bloomberg before starting his own CTA firm, is the perfect person to talk about this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kim.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI37: Is "Buy and Hold" the perfect investment strategy? and should you "Equal Weight"?

25 maj 2019 | 66 min

Is ‘Buy & Hold’ the S&P500 index the perfect investment strategy? Should you apply Equal-Weighting across all of your Trading positions? Are long-term strategies the only way to avoid market noise? Also, we give our thoughts on why you should avoid ‘Fat-Tail Distributions’, Volatility versus Risk, how Trend Following strategies tend to ‘melt-up’ rather than crash down, and our upcoming Systematic Investor Series Live Event.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:55 – Weekly review of performance

06:30 – Live event update 10/26/19-10/27/19; 12 people

09:30 – Top tweets

52:20 – Question 1: Sam- Please discuss equal weighting positions.

01:00:30 – Benchmark performance update

01:01:50 – Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

BO19: The Evolution and Future of Trend Following

21 maj 2019 | 22 min

Regardless of the investment strategy that you apply to the markets, your strategy or approach needs to evolve over time. The way we did Trend Following back in the 1970s, 1980s & 1990s is not exactly the way we do it today, and I think this can be said about most, if not all strategies. Now with some strategies, the model decay is so rapid, that if you don’t adapt quickly you can lose your edge. I think short-term strategies are good examples of this. Trend Following, being a longer-term strategy is, in my opinion, a lot slower when it comes to Model Decay… so you need to have been around for a really long time in order to have witnessed this evolution.

So when I looked through my list of guests to pull a few golden nuggets from on this theme, I thought that Marty Lueck, the co-founder of AHL and Aspect Capital would be the perfect person for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Marty.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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SI36: Can you measure the quality of your strategy on your stress-level?

19 maj 2019 | 69 min

In today’s episode, we discuss whether or not Trend Following is more effective with Volatility Targeting, how cautious you should be of outlier events, how to use stress-levels as an indicator of how good your trading strategy is, and we give our thoughts on the concept of ‘Risk of Ruin’, in relation to the plight of Long-Term Capital management in the late 1990s. Questions this week include: Should you trade in a style that suits your personality? Can 10 years of financial data still be classified as ‘noise’? Should the fundamental causes of market movements affect how you trade? Should you reduce your position in a trade if it goes in your direction far quicker than expected? We also touch on Howard Mark’s comments regarding the skill of catching a ‘falling knife’.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI35: The journey from managing personal money to external clients

12 maj 2019 | 86 min

Today, we discuss how to go from managing personal money to third-party money, in this current regulatory environment. We clear up some confusion surrounding the VIX market, touch on stocks vs commodities & how they affect on Trend Following strategies differently, as well as how to avoid a single driver from overly correlating your portfolio. We also answer the questions: how do you define long-term versus short-term? Did Richard Dennis’s Turtles ever add to winning positions? Are CTAs underrepresented at investing conferences, and are investors losing out by only choosing the most common names?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

SI34: Can Central Banks and policies prevent trends in the future?

5 maj 2019 | 93 min

In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

08:45 – Top tweets

37:30 – Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility?

45:50 – Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models?

53:05 – Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance?

01:02:15 – Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness?

01:22:45 – Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)?

01:30:15 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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RT25: Alpha decay in Short-Term strategies ft. John Fidler, Jonathan Miles & Christopher Vogt – 2of2

2 maj 2019 | 31 min

On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri continues his conversation with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathan Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. Listen in as our guests talk about management fees and how they have changed over the past decade, the importance of constantly checking your assumptions, and what wisdom they would give to young up and coming investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why John and Jonathan don’t spend much time looking at short-term CTAs
How fee compression has changed management fees over the last decade
When our guests choose discretionary over systematic managers
The role of alternatives in a portfolio, and why Christopher doesn’t call them alternatives
Why Christopher urges people interested in the investment space to be cynical
Why in a world of complex models, John sees simplicity as a good thing
The most important decisions in Jonathan’s work, and why they aren’t necessarily financial decisions
Why many people’s view of model risk can hurt them and their investments
Why macro strategies will always remain strong

-----

Links Mentioned:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Connect with our guests:

Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust

Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank

Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO18: How to test a model over decades of Data

30 april 2019 | 34 min

I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years. So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following with Alex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website. We also discussed how they conducted their research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest. I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI33: The positive effect of embracing volatility ft. Wayne Himelsein

29 april 2019 | 112 min

This week, we invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles. Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes. He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio. We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an effect on the size of his positions.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT24: The Value of Liquidity ft. John Fidler, Christopher Vogt & Jonathan Miles – 1of2

24 april 2019 | 31 min

On today’s episode, guest host Ranjan Bhaduri speaks with John Fidler, Senior VP and Director of Alternative Investments at Commonwealth Bank and Trust, Christopher Vogt, Director of Equity Strategies at Margaret Cargill Philanthropies, and Jonathon Miles, Managing Director of Ascent Private Capital Management of U.S. Bank. With these experts on managed futures, we will discuss how managed futures is being incorporated into institutional portfolios, illiquid versus liquid investments, and what role alternative investments play in today’s investment landscape.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What managed future strategies John sees the more successful managers gravitating towards
Why diversification isn’t always the best idea, and what alternative strategies Jonathan recommends
The advantages and disadvantages of having illiquid versus liquid investments
The heuristic crutch of private equity
Why Christopher is wary to always choose emerging managers over more established ones
The importance of a strong operational due diligence in managing portfolios
How trend following will need to evolve amid machine learning and changing markets
How Jonathan’s risk premia strategies transformed how his firm looked at managed futures

-----

Links Mentioned:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about John Fidler and Commonwealth Bank and Trust

Learn more about Jonathan Miles and Ascent Private Capital Mgt of U.S. Bank

Learn more about Christopher Vogt and Margaret Cargill Philanthropies

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI32: How accurately can we predict future returns? and can trading with systems keep you happy?

22 april 2019 | 92 min

Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for? Can Systematic Trading keep you happy? How accurately can we predict future returns? We discuss whether Trend Following is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead. What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’? Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them? We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over-complicating a Trading System.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:00 – Weekly review of performance

05:55 – Top tweets

50:00 – Announcement: Next week’s guest Wayne Himelsein

50:50 – Question 1: George; What are the operational realities of running a TF business?

56:55 – Question 2+: Craig; Please discuss the research that didn’t become part of the system.

01:02:20 – Question 3+: Carl; Series of questions about stop loss mechanics (initial, ATR, trailing, etc.)

01:10:15 – Question 4+: Michael; What are your thoughts on variable count in robust systems? Do you tailor models to specific markets/sectors?

01:24:40 – Question 5: Uncle Mike; What works best for stops?

01:28:25 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

BO17: Track records vs Simulations... what’s Best?

15 april 2019 | 22 min

For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you’ll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing. This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington. We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model. So enjoy these unique insights from Scot.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI31: Should you be using a Stop-Loss? or Target a certain level of Volatility?

15 april 2019 | 87 min

Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:30 – Top tweets

01:12:00 – Questions 1&2: John; If a trade signal comes just before a roll date, do you move the roll forward to avoid trading twice? Do you ever try to “game” a roll to make a profit?

01:17:30 – Question 3: Michael; When the system designer and the executive are not the same person, how does the executive have confidence in the system/work of the system designer?

01:23:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO16: Crisis Alpha explained

10 april 2019 | 22 min

Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are ‘short volatility’ strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI30: Should you adjust your position size based on recent volatility?

7 april 2019 | 94 min

Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder

06:45 – Weekly review of performance

11:00 – Top tweets

32:20 – Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?

41:00 – Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?

46:30 – Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using ‘blue chip’ managed futures mutual funds?

01:07:30 – Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?

01:15:50 – Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?

01:19:30 – Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?

01:26:50 – Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade?

01:31:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO15: Why Trend Following is Not a Black Box

4 april 2019 | 14 min

Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a ‘Black Box’, as if something bad was going on. So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a ‘White Box’, or a ‘Transparent Box’, in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to a much larger degree… so I’m delighted to share this blog post with you, from a conversation I had with Scott Foster, where he also touched on the essential question: Why are there trends, and why ought there be trends in the future?

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder

31 mars 2019 | 77 min

In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences

08:00 – Jesse describes his process

12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?

19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing

25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing

28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing

30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing

34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes

36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails

Book reference: The Tao of Capital by Spitznagel

40:10 – Jerry asks Jesse’s thoughts on TF as a tool benefitting diversification

42:00 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on the market not broadly recognizing the evidence supporting Trend Following

47:20 – Jerry/Jesse/Niels discuss forecasting and TF

50:00 – Question from George: Why is knowing what’s happening fundamentally better than just responding to price (i.e. trend following)?

56:20 – Niels asks Jesse’s view on Tesla

01:00:20 – Moritz asks how Jesse spends a typical day

01:01:30 – Niels asks what Jesse is reading now

01:03:20 – Moritz asks about Jesse’s interests/hobbies

01:04:40 – Niels asks about following Buffett/Munger and shifts in markets today

01:08:45 – Niels asks if Jesse applies analog analysis to markets

01:11:50 – Niels asks Jesse’s recommendations on things to read/listen to to learn about investing

01:14:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT23: Populism and Market Risks ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 2of2

27 mars 2019 | 29 min

Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Chris Cole, the Founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. Our guests today go over the changing markets and why despite trend following’s recent underperformance, their clients still look to it as protection for their portfolio. They will also continue their discussion on the intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing, as well as the relationship between corporate debt and GDP and its long term trends.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the recent quantitative easing could be moving into quantitative tightening, and what that means for investors
The intersection of populism, politics, and quantitative easing
How opportunities in the markets are changing managers behavior
Why Matthew is happy with the current market environment
Which asset classes currently offer a cheap volatility
What the recent huge spikes in VIX meant for long vol and short vol traders
Who in the investing space is looking for the protection of hedging for their portfolio
Why trend following is still successful despite it’s recent difficulties in the market
The meaning of the recent change of Growth outperforming Value

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management

Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL

Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI28: Investing based on the "Evidence" and what are the Trend Commandments?

24 mars 2019 | 82 min

On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle ‘parabolic moves’ better.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:00 – Weekly review of performance

06:30 – Top tweets

34:40 – Question 1: Michael; Have any of you backtested 2009 trades onward with one size fits all position sizing?

47:15 – Question 2: Dave; What represents too much open risk as a percentage of AUM?

56:55 – Question 3: Brian; How does a Trend Following system trade a parabolic market?

01:06:15 – Question 4: George; What are the commandments of Trend Following you reference in earlier episodes?

01:10:00 – Question 5: George; Could Moritz discuss why he dislikes a simple Trend Following system on just the S&P 500 when Meb Faber’s research shows it is effective.

01:12:40 – Question 6: George; Is Jerry’s infrequent overall risk reduction built into his system?

01:15:10 – Question 7: George; Most Trend Followers use stops, why doesn’t DUNN?

01:19:10 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT22: Volatility Master Class ft. Chris Cole, Matthew Sargaison & Dan Stone – 1of2

20 mars 2019 | 31 min

On today’s episode guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Chris Cole, founder and CIO of Artemis Capital Management, Matthew Sargaison, co-CEO at AHL at Man Investments, and Dan Stone, co-founder of Ionic Capital. With these three world class volatility experts on the show, we’ll be going deep into the current state of volatility, the ramifications of United States quantitative easing, as well as the economic effects on the market of various social movements around the world.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How our guests got interested in the financial industry and data analytics
The state of the market now and where it is headed in the future
Why Dan sees the Quantitative Easing and its effect on market changes hurting long-term volatility
The hidden risks to the markets from the rise of populism
Dan’s “top five longball macro themes” and what we can learn from them
Where Matthew sees opportunities in volatility today
What it has been like as a long-vol trader for the last ten years, when you are up against the World’s Central Banks
Why you don’t have to put your “end-of-the-world” hat on…just yet

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Cole and Artemis Capital Management

Learn more about Matthew Sargaison and Man AHL

Learn more about Dan Stone and Ionic Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI27: Volatility vs Risk...What's the difference? and are CTAs useless?

16 mars 2019 | 68 min

Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool? What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:35 – Weekly review of performance

05:30 – Top tweets

24:30 – TF needs a better slogan than “crisis alpha” – listeners are welcome to write in.

39:20 – Question 1: Antonio; How should TF work with traditional 60/40 stock/bond investing (and more on the podcast)?

56:20 – Question 2: Kevin; When backtesting do you have a preferred definition of what was and was not a trend or do you apply discretion?

01:03:50 – Announcement: Guest Jesse Felder coming on the show in a few weeks

01:04:35 – Benchmark Performance update

Paper Reference 1 – https://www.ahl.com/strategic-rebalancing

Paper Reference 2 – https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/A-Century-of-Evidence-on-Trend-Following-Investing

Paper Reference 3 – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3050736

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI26: Is it more profitable to invest longer-term? and Druckenmiller on being greedy

10 mars 2019 | 83 min

Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:35 – Weekly review of performance

06:15 – Top tweets

29:35 – Question 1: Antonio; How do you determine if your Trend Following model is broken?

45:00 – Question 2: Seth; How does Jerry diversify his single stock portfolio?

47:20 – Question 3: Dave; Could you discuss specific details of your systems?

48:15 – Question 4/5/6: Carlos; How does Jerry trade single stock futures given liquidity? What is your opinion on using alternative data for position sizing/signal generation? What is your opinion on adjusting position sizes using momentum/pyramiding/etc.?

58:20 – Question 7: Walter; What exchange does Jerry use to trade single stock futures/where is the liquidity?

01:03:30 – Question 8: Brian; Do you use options strategies? If so would you discuss your strategies?

01:09:50 – Question 9: Glen; Please discuss your execution process once a system provides a signal.

01:15:00 – Question 10/11: Keith; If establishing a new system, do you put on all positions as of a specific date or sit in cash waiting for new entry signals? How do you adjust positions when new money comes in?

01:19:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO14: How ”slow” trading can be Profitable

5 mars 2019 | 13 min

Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking for new signals once a week. Nevertheless, this is exactly what Scot Billington and his partners have done.

When I spoke to Scot a while back, he shared some great stories and real-life experiences, that had led him and his partners to this realization, and ultimately, their unique way of implementing a Trend Following approach. I’m excited to share some of these key takeaways with you today.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI25: Where to start your Trend Following jouney?

3 mars 2019 | 98 min

Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:20 – Weekly review of performance

07:00 – Top tweets

32:30 – Question 1: Karl; Where would you start if you wanted to become a Trend Follower?

36:30 – Question 2/3: Paul; Considering return volatility and investor tolerance, how do you help investors determine their optimal allocation to Trend Following? Have your personal volatility preferences changed over time?

45:45 – Question 4: Antonio; If historical drawdowns have no bearing on the future (as the podcast has said), how do you know your system won’t blow up?

50:10 – Question 5: Antonio; How do you calculate future expected returns with a TF system?

55:20 – Question 6: Antonio; If you can’t estimate future returns, why bet TF will keep working in the future?

59:30 – Question 7: Antonio; Should recent performance of TF systems influence future return expectations?

01:03:10 – Question 8: Brian; How does a CTA choose a company to sell their products?

01:05:00 – Question 9/10: Samuel; Based on correlation, what level of diversification is enough? What will cause Jerry to adjust his risk?

01:09:00 – Question 11: Samuel; How often should positions be adjusted based on account equity?

01:15:15 – Question 12: Brian; Why do investors hold CTA returns to a higher standard (versus other hedge funds)?

01:18:50 – Question 13: Seth; What are the unique “sectors” that drive diversification in a TF system?

01:22:40 – Discussion of Bloomberg article on TF failing – suggested by Christian

01:35:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT21: What's next for Hedge Funds? ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 2of2

1 mars 2019 | 44 min

Today Niels continues his conversation with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. Listen in to learn when our guests use investment theory versus data, new standards for management fees, and what our guests look for in maintaining a reliable team for their investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

When to use investment theory versus data, and how you know when you have chosen correctly
How the guests review their managers and analyze their results
What organizations of different sizes can do to prepare for a crisis
How Steven sees the new fee structure for hedge funds, that TRS helped develop, as more reasonable than the standard 2&20
How a race to the bottom for management fees can remove much of the creative energy from the alternative manager space
What excites Trent about the BBB section of the investment grade bond market
What is new and upcoming in the hedge fund space
The reading that our guests never miss inside and outside of the investment space

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings

Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida

Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI24: Why Trend Following has "failed" to attract a lot of Assets ft. Meb Faber

24 februari 2019 | 94 min

Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:30 – Weekly review of performance

06:25 – Meb's backstory

10:15 – Jerry question: Why don’t CTAs have more AUM?

16:50 – Moritz question: When and why did you start your firm?

21:00 – Moritz question: Why do you think TF and value is a great blend?

28:00 – Niels question: Please talk about the perceived safety of US Treasuries (based on your research) and why you use a broader portfolio.

36:20 – Niels question: What needs to happen before Betterment (and others) embrace TF?

40:15 – Moritz question: Why did you set up an ETF vs a mutual fund or another vehicle?

50:00 – Jerry question: What needs to happen for mutual funds to be competitive with ETFs (tax wise)?

53:00 – Niels question: With ETFs do you have to disclose your trading methodology?

57:00 – Jerry question: What do you think of products designed for client desires/tolerances compared to optimally designed pure TF products?

01:02:30 – Jerry question: What is your opinion on active mgt = discretionary & index = systematic?

01:12:30 – Niels questions: What are your favorite factors? How is your competition going with Patrick O’Shaughnessy?

01:19:30 – Moritz question: Do you trade any vol products?

01:25:45 – Jerry question: Why isn’t there a distinction between the good (full trading systems) and bad (market timing indicators) parts of systems trading in articles?

01:30:45 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT20: The Looming Pension Crisis ft. Jake Barton, Trent Webster & Steven Wilson – 1of2

20 februari 2019 | 50 min

On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Jake Barton, the Senior Portfolio Manager at Promus Capital, Trent Webster, Senior Investment Officer of Strategic Investments at Florida State Board of Administration, and Steven Wilson, Senior Portfolio Manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas. As managers of the investment of pensions and alternative portfolios, our guests today get in depth on how they use trend following to improve their client’s capital, from interpersonal strategies in choosing a portfolio, how the funding status of a pension can affect a board’s strategy, and what guides them in making the choices they do for their holdings.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the guests got their start in investing
Trent’s philosophy for choosing his investments
What Jake looks for when working with managers
The core beliefs and principles that drive each of the guest’s decisions
How the funding level of the pension fund can change investment decisions
The varying degrees of differentiation and how it changes with the markets
Why our guests are firmly committed to trend following even after a few years of lower returns
Why convincing boards to invest in a hedge fund can be so difficult

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Jake Barton and Promus Holdings

Learn more about Trent Webster and State Board of Administration of Florida

Learn more about Steven Wilson and Teacher Retirement System of Texas

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI23: What is the value of the 200-Day Moving Average?

17 februari 2019 | 94 min

What is the value of the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies? Are drawdowns a necessary component of a robust strategy, and what is the optimum startup capital? These, and a lot more we discuss this week.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:45 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be on the show next week please send questions

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

06:40 – Top tweets

19:00 – Question 1: Alfred; What are some filters to increase the accuracy of breakouts?

25:25 – Question 2/3: Walter; Do you use volume as a signal in your systems? I’ve heard you mention more volatile systems are more robust, please explain why.

41:00 – Question 4: Paul; Please discuss big data, market predictions, and the relationship to TF.

47:40 – Question 5: Robert; Are Chesapeake’s single stock positions being traded via futures or cash equities?

50:00 – Question 6/7/8: Chris; Why don’t more TF use single stocks? Do you put on positions the day of the signal or wait until end of week (or similar)? How do you think about stop losses in a portfolio?

01:02:20 – Question 9: Matt; What needs to happen for investors to embrace TF like you all have?

01:09:30 – Question 10/11: Peter-Francois; How do you handle existing positions and inflows/outflows of capital? Do you adjust stop loss levels when new investors come in to existing positions?

01:14:30 – Question 12: Francois; What is your take on factor investing such as value and momentum?

01:26:30 – Question 13: Alex; How would you trade $20k vs $20mm?

01:31:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO13: The History of Trend Following

13 februari 2019 | 11 min

The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI22: Can intra-day trading be scaled to a big business?

10 februari 2019 | 93 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

-----

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:15 – Weekly review of performance

06:10 – Top tweets

28:45 – Book mention: The Systems Bible by John Gall

38:25 – Question 1: Craig; Should all markets be considered equal from a TF perspective?

44:00 – Question 2: Johannes; Can intraday trading be scaled into a big business?

51:00 – Question 3: Manuel; What are good rules for managing position sizes to keep risk at a reasonable level as winners inherently grow with Trend Following?

58:10 – Question 4/5: George; Why does TF seem to need so many return drivers for optimal diversification? How much could a TF strategy lose at once if all went wrong?

01:11:15 – Question 6: Francois; Are TF interested in the sine of the speed of the trend only and not the actual speed?

01:17:40 – Question 7/8: Samuel; How do you roll positions? What are your favorite resources to stay up to date on systematic investing (journals, podcasts, subscriptions, authors)?

01:30:20 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO12: Market Psychology & Universal Truths

4 februari 2019 | 11 min

A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI21: Why the biggest drawdown is always ahead of you or so they say

4 februari 2019 | 73 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:30 – Weekly review of performance

14:00 – Top tweets

26:55 – Question 1: Samuel; What is a good CTA trading cost hurdle rate?

34:10 Question 2: Samuel; Why do people say your biggest drawdown is always in front of you?

41:10 – Question 3: Michael; How much has your parameter set changed (and related questions)?

50:10 – Question 4: Francois; What do you know about Renaissance Technologies (Jim Simons)?

56:30 – Miami conference review+TF thoughts

01:10:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO11: Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication

30 januari 2019 | 17 min

A few years back, I had a great discussion with die-hard Trend Follower, Scot Billington. I would like to share some key moments with you, including how to perceive past track records, and also some of the differences between the long side and the short side.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI20: Crisis Alpha...To Love or Not To Love

28 januari 2019 | 67 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT19: Who actually learned from the last financial crisis? ft. Andrew Lo & Sol Waksman – 2of2

23 januari 2019 | 42 min

Today Niels Kaastrup-Larsen continues his conversation with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Listen in to learn the effects of politics in the financial markets and how trend following fits in, the state of cryptocurrency in the current market, and the advice our guests have for investors and their future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why relatively so few investors have added managed futures and trend following to their portfolio, despite all the evidence
The lessons different groups of people can still learn from the economic crisis of 2008
How political uncertainty affects where investors put their money
What Sol sees as the constant lesson we should be learning from these periodic economic events
Why investors have a hard time grasping the advantages of the liquidity that trend following brings to investments
The present and future impact of artificial intelligence on the finance industry
Why Andrew believes the centralization to one cryptocurrency is inevitable
The advice Andrew and Sol have for investors to prepare for the future

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management

Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI19: Can you apply Trend Following to Life?

20 januari 2019 | 62 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Weekly review of performance

23:00 – Top Tweets

43:40 – Question 1: Michael; Can we apply TF principles to things other than markets (real life)?

48:50 – Question 2: George; What is your competitive advantage?

57:55 – Announcement: Meb Faber will be joining the group in late February, send your questions

58:35 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT18: Are markets really Efficient? ft. Andrew Lo & Sol Waksman – 1of2

16 januari 2019 | 41 min

On today’s episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen speaks with Andrew Lo, the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Sol Waksman, the Founder and President of BarclayHedge, Ltd. Our guests today have many years of experience in the world of investing and have watched the finance industry as it has gone through its many changes. Listen in to learn the historical importance of separating the alpha from the beta, the increase of the volatility of volatility since 2007, and common misconceptions about diversification in a portfolio.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How our guests got their starts in finance
Why Andrew thinks that sometimes things need to be believed to be seen
Why separating the alpha from the beta has been revolutionary for the entire financial industry
How the narrative of finance and investing has changed over time in the futures industry
The increase in the volatility of volatility over the last decade and what that means for managed futures
How the abundance of passive investing tools has changed the investor’s experience during market changes
What investors are looking for in their tools and strategies
What alternative strategies are investors looking at now
The experiment Andrew does with his audiences he speaks to on their investment preferences
What investors need to understand about diversification and risk

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT Sloan School of Management

Learn more about Sol Waksman and BarclayHedge, Ltd

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI18: How to know if you are over-fitting your model parameters

13 januari 2019 | 66 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

02:25 – Weekly recap of performance

08:40 – Top tweets

24:05 – Question 1: CR Capital; Thoughts on Winton retreating from TF

30:55 – Question 2: Bill; Do you add to positions as the trend progresses

34:35 – Question 3: George; Why don’t you include short-term TF systems in a robust TF system

44:40 – Question 4: Nick; How would I know if I’m curve fitting my systems

53:10 – Question 5: Richard; Several questions about: historical data distributions; long-term trend following efficacy and related concerns

01:03:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI17: The philosophy of Trend Following

7 januari 2019 | 73 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:40 – Weekly review of performance

07:30 – Annual review

22:00 – Top Tweets/Related discussions (Good info on process/philosophy this week)

40:20 – Questions

41:00 – Question 1: George

45:00 – Question 2: George

50:00 – Question 3: Michael

01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI16: What Returns and Drawdowns can you expect from Trend Following

29 december 2018 | 73 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:55 – Weekly review of performance

13:00 – Top tweets

35:30 – Question 1: George; Is there a best system to trade trends?

49:20 – Question 2: George; Why have discretionary macro traders outperformed TF?

55:25 – Question 3/4: George; What is a safe expectation for systems in terms of CAGR to Drawdown? Do you think a “golden” period for TF like the 1970s will come back?

01:04:00 – Question 5: Liew: What price should my trailing stop reference (high, low, close, etc.)?

01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI15: Has too much Diversification hurt performance in recent years?

22 december 2018 | 90 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:50 – Weekly review of performance

05:50 – Top tweets

19:30 – Question 1: Michael; Are trend followers relaxed (in terms of personality) in general?

23:00 – Question 2: Michael; Why does TF not work on stocks work?

28:30 – Question 3: Michael; How do you measure single stock correlation?

33:05 – Question 4: Nick; Do you ever front run your systems?

35:00 – Question 5: David; Have you ever been through a market similar to this year (2018) and how did it turn out/what did you learn?

38:45 – Question 6: Can you give us a proven TF strategy (ex. Donchian)?

43:05 – Question 7/8: Timothy; Has too much diversification hurt TF in the last decade? Should TF focus on markets that are trending?

52:10 – Question 9: Anish; How do you identify relative strength and accordingly allocate capital between different asset classes?

59:55 – Question 10: Does the intensity of trends change over time?

01:04:30 – Question 11/12: Have the markets changed during your time as a trader and if so how? If a market has been trending is it more likely to continue trending than to reverse?

01:16:10 – Question 13: Nitesh; Is Short-term TF impossible now or does it need to be done differently from medium to long-term?

01:18:00 – Question 14: Dave; How do you select a universe of single stocks for TF?

01:21:20 – Question 15/16: Ted; What are the parameters you use around Nat Gas? With high volatility swings, how do stay in a position?

01:25:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO10: Systematic Global Macro…an Experts view

19 december 2018 | 15 min

A while back I had a very memorable time talking with Anders Lindell, discussing many trading related topics. There was one part in particular that I want to share where Anders shared his understanding on US institutions and how they deal with asset allocation and position sizing. If you would like to find out then read on!

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI14: How many markets should you include in your portfolio?

15 december 2018 | 49 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:30 – Weekly review of performance

11:50 – Top tweets and much more

45:50 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO09: From Discretionary Trading to a Systematic Approach

11 december 2018 | 11 min

At the very beginning of my podcasting career, I had a great conversation with Mike Dever covering many trading related topics, one of which were the different approaches to trading. And there was One segment I really liked in particular, and which I would like to share with you today. It was a segment where Mike shared his own systematic approach to trading and as you listen to it, we need to keep in mind that Mike was not always a systematic trader.

Listen to the full episode here. Part 1 & Part 2.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI13: The market impact of too much money following trends

9 december 2018 | 52 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT17: What makes Bitcoin "anti-fragile"? ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 2of2

5 december 2018 | 36 min

Today guest host Chris Solarz continues his conversation with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Listen in to learn more about the future of cryptocurrency technologies, the unprecedented strength of the blockchain in Bitcoin, and how the SEC and world economies are looking into cryptocurrencies.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How pick-and-shovel plays are faring in the crypto market
Why Roy is hesitant to make any judgments about the future of cryptocurrency technologies
What people are calling the “inconsistent trinity of crypto”
The future of scalability in crypto
Why the cost of trading crypto is not an issue to worry about
What makes the blockchain one of the most secure things ever created
What makes Bitcoin “anti-fragile”
Where the SEC stands now on regulation of Bitcoin
Why James worries about ICO’s and the security behind them
What makes Bitcoin such a unique trading commodity
Why James sees new all-time highs in Bitcoin in 2019

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital Management

Learn more about Tim McCourt and CME Group

Learn more about Roy Niederhoffer and R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI12: What causes drawdowns and how to deal with them

3 december 2018 | 60 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:45 – Weekly review of performance

14:55 – Top tweets

39:40 – Referenced paper: Stock market charts you never saw by McQuarrie

40:15 – Question 1: Patrick; Longer question on notional exposure relative to actual capital

47:05 – Question 2: Brian; What causes drawdowns in TF?

56:05 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT16: The birth of the first Futures on Crypto ft. James Koutolas, Tim McCourt & Roy Niederhoffer – 1of2

29 november 2018 | 35 min

On today’s episode, guest host Chris Solarz speaks with Tim McCourt, the Global Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME Group, James Koutolas, CEO of Typhon Capital Management, and Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management. Our guests today are at the forefront of cryptocurrency investment and their views give insight on where it is headed, from public acceptance to their integration in managed futures. Listen in to today’s episode to learn what makes cryptocurrency unique in human history, the long-term effects of investment, and the new developments that change how we invest them.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What makes Bitcoin so unique among the history of currencies
The differences between Ethereum and Bitcoin
What challenges CME faced in creating a futures on something virtual
How interest in cryptocurrency has changed over the last couple of years
Why the guests disagree about the public long-term interest in cryptocurrency
The historical precedent for the benefits of futures in the economy
How the various kinds of traders make their financial system work so well
The trading strategies around cryptocurrency and how it has evolved

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about James Koutolas and Typhon Capital Management

Learn more about Tim McCourt and CME Group

Learn more about Roy Niederhoffer and R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI11: Why hire a manager when you can DIY your Trend Following?

26 november 2018 | 76 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:30 – Weekly review of performance

26:50 – Top tweets

35:50 – Question 1: Brian; How do you onboard clients?

43:40 – Question 2: Mike; If you could only choose one word to describe the key benefit of TF what would it be/how would you describe TF in a minute or less?

50:10 – Question 3: George; Since TF rules are known, why hire a manager (vs build my own TF strategy)?

01:00:30 – Question 4: George; How should an investor select a specific TF manager?

01:05:20- Question 5: George; Why hire an active TF manager with higher fees vs hiring a lower fee TF “beta” manager?

01:09:30 – Question 6: Francois; Are there CTAs/HFs still using point and figure charts?

01:13:00 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU109: Risk Mitigation Whilst Trading Exotic Markets ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 2of2

21 november 2018 | 36 min

Moritz Seibert and I continue our conversation with Doug Greenig, talking about the many different ways risk can manifest in your firm, how best to minimize it, and why building a strong team is one of the most important elements in staying ahead in the trend following space. Listen in to learn the many benefits of getting into exotic markets, how to best manage your risk, and what all investors should be asking themselves to better their portfolio.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What makes the exotic market space so good to trade in right now
How Doug knows there is still a lot of room left for trading in the exotic market space
The difficulties Doug has had in attracting investors to investing in exotic markets
Why momentum should be your key signal when investing in exotic markets
The role cash equities play in Doug’s portfolio
Why Doug has reservations in trading VIX
The different varieties of risk and how to minimize them
The importance of focusing on model risk
Benefits of building and maintaining a good team
What questions investors should be asking themselves

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Follow Doug Greenig on LinkedIn

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI10: How to set your Stop-Loss and Size your Positions?

17 november 2018 | 62 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:45 – Weekly review of performance

09:15 – Top tweets

14:20 – Paper from Jim O’Shaughnessy from 1987

29:50 – Question 1: Andrew; How do you get the TF message across to advisors?

39:40 – Question 2: George; Please discuss position sizing.

39:40 – Question 3: George; Please discuss how far stops should be from entry (5%, etc.)

39:40 – Question 4: George; Do you think the future is a hybrid of TF and discretionary?

52:10 – Question 5; Francois; Long question about correlations

57:15 – Benchmark performance update

58:00 – Additional discussions of systems trading

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU108: Big Opportunities in Exotic Markets? ft. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital – 1of2

15 november 2018 | 40 min

Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Doug Greenig, the Founder, CEO, and CIO at Florin Court Capital. Doug’s early experiences in economics at Princeton and UC Berkeley helped kick off his career in finance, and his work at BARRA in Berkeley started his eventual dive into the CTA space. Trading in exotic markets has helped Doug and his firm capitalize on unique opportunities and fully utilize the systematic trading model. Listen in to today’s episode to learn how Doug got started in systematic trading and exotic markets, how he built his team at Florin Court, and how he has utilized exotic markets to their fullest potential.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Doug got started in finance
Why Doug got into the CTA space
How systematic trading intrigued Doug more than discretionary trading
The inspiration behind the name Florin Court Capital
Who influenced Doug in his financial career
What Doug learned from working with Fischer Black (co-inventor of the Black-Scholes model)
How Doug found such an experienced team in the early days of Florin Court Capital
The exotic markets that Doug is trading
What makes these exotic markets easier, or better to trade
Where to find the right balance of exotic versus traditional markets
What gives an asset more or less momentum, and why crypto is so special in this regard
How Doug selects his markets, and his long-term strategy for maintaining that collection
Why Florin Court Capital has stayed out of trading spot crypto
How to adapt the different markets to the standard models

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Doug Greenig on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI09: What really makes a Trend Follower a Trend Follower?

12 november 2018 | 52 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Weekly review of performance

08:50 – Top tweets

24:30 – Question 1: Brian; What makes a trend follower a trend follower (are there variations on TF)?

32:20 – Question 2: Seth; What is the best way to achieve diversification in the fixed income/rates sector?

38:45 – Discussion papers: Winton, Tim Price

49:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO08: How to really Define Risk

7 november 2018 | 8 min

During a conversation I had with expert Bill Dreiss, we discussed many topics, all with great value. One part in particular I found really interesting, and which I would like to share with you, was when I asked Bill how he defines risk. If you would like to l know what Bill said then keep listening!

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI08: How to tell if you system has stopped working?

5 november 2018 | 67 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Weekly recap of performance

20:15 – Top tweets

38:50 – Question 1: Kyle; What’s the preferred method of dynamically adjusting/rebalancing a portfolio?

49:30 – Question 2: Dave; Please describe ways to reduce risk in drawdowns

52:50 – Question 3: Dimitry; What time frames do you consider too long to be effective (ex. quarterly)

57:45- Question 4: Dimitry; At what point in drawdown (%) do you say something is wrong with the system?

01:01:30 – Question 5: Robert; Do you typically trade the front month contract or use proprietary methods to select contracts?

01:04:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO07: Cold Turtle Takeaways

31 oktober 2018 | 9 min

It’s not often you get to sit down with a Turtle, let alone the father of the Turtle Experiment, and when I do I find it fascinating learning about the different experiences and outcomes that emerged from what really can be boiled down to 2 to 3 weeks of training in how to use trading rules to make money in the markets. What was truly unique about the conversation I want to share a few key takeaways from today, is that Richard Dennis was joined by two of his Turtles, namely Jerry Parker and Brian Proctor, where they shared some of their personal impressions from their time together…things that has not really ever been discussed publicly. We even discussed their research in to “counter-trend” models…not something you would think the Turtles would spend time on…and of course just having Richard Dennis share his wisdom was huge.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI07: What is; alpha, smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha and convexity?

29 oktober 2018 | 64 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:15 – Weekly recap of performance

08:30 – Discussion of recent articles

21:30 – Top tweets

36:10 – Question 1: Mohit; Discuss moving averages as a TF device; position sizing; correlations

43:20 – Question 2; Paul; How many investors are out there who use TF but their AUM doesn’t show up in the official industry AUM #s

47:10 – Question 3: John; Asked about industry jargon and definitions: alpha; smart beta, implied vol, crisis alpha, convexity

51:30 – Question 4: Mohit; Is looking at correlations in the rearview mirror fallible?

52:50 – Question 5: Dave; What is the average time in trade of winners in a medium-term system?

57:10 – Question 6: What software do you use for backtesting/system management?

01:01:40 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU107: The Bright Future of Trend Following ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 2of2

25 oktober 2018 | 31 min

Moritz Seibert and I continue our conversation with Jean Jacques Duhot and further discuss his contrarian and multi-part model, how his management company has stayed lean, and how the due diligence of investors and managers has changed the trading space for the better. Listen in to learn the unique properties of Jean Jacques new equities program, what he sees in the future of trend following, and who has influenced him most.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Jean Jacques knows when to change his position in his “all-in” approach
Why Arctic Blue’s acquisition by H2O has been such a positive experience
How H2O is helping Arctic Blue stay lean and focused
What is unique about Arctic Blue’s new equities program
What Jean Jacques defines as risk in his model
What excites and scares Jean Jacques about about the future
The most useful information Jean Jacques has learned about trend following
Why Jean Jacques believes the due diligence of managers by investors is the best it’s been
What books Jean Jacques recommends for anybody in the trend following and investing space
Who influenced Jean Jacques in his journey into trend following

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jean Jacques on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO06: Identifying the best trading rules

24 oktober 2018 | 9 min

In any systematic trading strategy choosing the right combination of parameters for your model or approach is critical. So today, I wanted to share a valuable takeaway from a conversation with Bill Dreiss, where we discuss his thoughts, experience and approach to identifying parameter sets which I think you will find to be rather different to most managers. Bill and I discussed this as well as many other super interesting aspects of trading from his 40+ year career and I think these lessons will benefit you immensely.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI06: How to optimize your trading system

20 oktober 2018 | 59 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:15 – Weekly recap of performance

05:30 – Top tweets

34:30 – Question set 1: George; Please discuss system optimization/backtesting details

43:30 – Question set 2: George; How do you determine when a system is broken? Do you keep losing markets in a system?

49:50 – Question set 3: George; How do you avoid curve fitting? How do you choose best parameters?

55:55 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU106: The Value of Being a Contrarian Trader ft. Jean Jacques Duhot of Arctic Blue Capital – 1of2

19 oktober 2018 | 34 min

Today I’m joined by my co-host Moritz Seibert to speak with Jean Jacques Duhot, the Chief Investment Officer at Arctic Blue Capital. Jean Jacques’s observations of different discretionary trading teams has given him valuable insight into a variety of trading methods and has allowed him to develop a unique multi-part model that utilizes the role of a contrarian mindset to great success. Listen in to today’s episode to learn about the beginnings of Arctic Blue Capital, how Jean Jacques developed his multi-part model, and how he tested it using a specifically “agnostic” outlook.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Arctic Blue Capital got it’s start
What influenced Jean Jacques in how he developed his unique “contrarian” trend following system
How Jean Jacques shaped his multi-part trend-following model
Who the three different types of traders are in his model
Why Jean Jacques took a more “agnostic” outlook when he tested his model
The reason why using a relatively small portfolio of markets benefits Jean Jacques’s model
Why Jean Jacques prefers ETF over the futures markets
How VIX can act as a warning signal
Why going in full on a new signal works for Jean Jacques

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jean Jacques Duhot on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO05: The Problems with Smart Beta & the Holy Grail of Investing?

17 oktober 2018 | 11 min

Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his deep insights in many areas of trading. During our conversation, there were a few short segments that I particularly enjoyed and I would love to share them with you here. Below you can learn about Nigols take on the problems with Smart Beta, and also his explanation of Filtering being the Holy Grail. This interview was packed with insight and wisdom.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI05: The Systematic Investor Series – October 15th, 2018

15 oktober 2018 | 56 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Weekly recap of performance

09:10 – Top tweets

19:51 – Niels discusses his trend barometer: (http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/)

34:00 – Question 1: Raphael; What is the optimal portfolio allocation?

39:50 – Question 2: Dave; Please explain the trend barometer (link above)

40:50 – Question 3: Dave; Do you change position sizes as a trade progresses?

45:00 – Question 4: When would a TF system be flat (no position)?

47:00 – Question 5: Mohit; What is your worst trade ever?

53:40 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO04: Return Dispersion and how to successfully trade since 1974

10 oktober 2018 | 12 min

In today’s post, I would like to share with you some really great moments and unique takeaways from  a conversation I had with Marty Bergin, the president and owner of DUNN Capital Management, where Marty shares his views on Return Dispersion and how those experiences, together with extensive research, has enabled them to produce a more robust trend following process for their clients.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI04: Stanley Druckenmiller interview disected

8 oktober 2018 | 43 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Weekly recap of performance

05:15 – Top tweets (lengthy discussion of Druckenmiller interview)

35:00 – Question 1: Barry; Do you use synthetic instruments in your trading?

38:20 – Benchmark performance update

39:15 – Jerry on Trend + Fundamentals

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO03: How the Turtles got their Name… and are the Rules Relevant Today?

3 oktober 2018 | 11 min

Today I would like to share some really great and unique takeaways from a conversation I had with the one and only Richard Dennis, the father of the Turtle Project from back in the 1980’s as well as two of his turtles, namely Brian Proctor and Jerry Parker. In our conversation we put the record straight for the first time on a number of myths about the Turtle experiment including How the Turtles got their name, and if the original rules that were applied with great success 30+ years ago would still be relevant today, and also how long it took Jerry and Brian to make sense of them. So let’s get straight to it, starting off with the very beginning of The Turtle story.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI03: Should you trade Futures or ETFs?

30 september 2018 | 62 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Weekly recap of performance

27:50 – Top tweets

40:50 – Question 1: Craig; What are the greatest regulatory concerns at present?

49:00 – Question 2: Francois; How long did it take before you stopped modifying and religiously followed your system?

56:30 – Question 3: Francois; What are the pros and cons of futures vs ETFs?

59:30- Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO02: The secret to successfully using Machine Learning

26 september 2018 | 12 min

Today I would like to share with you some life lessons and learnings from expert Robert Sinnott, where he shares his in depth knowledge of the modern evolution of systematic trading, in the form of Machine learning, and how machine learning has effected and impacted their short term and long term strategies. If you would like to hear the full episode then you can listen by clicking here. I’m pretty sure you are going to learn something valuable from what Robert shared with me.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI02: Is the popularity of Short Volatility investing hurting Trend Followers?

22 september 2018 | 43 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

00:50 – Weekly review of performance

07:30 – Interesting news

20:20 – Top tweets

28:20 – Question 1: Brian; Discuss the impact of shorting volatility on CTAs

32:20 – Question 2: Brian; Will there be more TF mutual funds and ETFs?

36:00 – Question 3: Bruno; How should one implement proper technology for a CTA?

40:30 – Benchmark performance update

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

BO01: The Impact of Volatility Trading ft. Nigol Koulajian

18 september 2018 | 10 min

Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his wealth of experience including life lessons and even his take on the modern scientific trading systems that are used today. One of topics which I particularly liked, and would like to share with you here, was his view on the VIX and Volatility trading within the managed futures industry and also outside of the industry.

Listen to the full episode here.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

SI01: Who we are...and Why we are doing this series

17 september 2018 | 56 min

Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

01:00 – Who we are

04:10 – Why we are doing the podcast

09:00 – Topics people should expect and podcast structure

19:10 – Weekly review of performance

33:00 – Top tweets

39:45 – Benchmark performance update

40:30 – Question: Bruno; Why do some funds get to the billion mark and others don’t?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT15: Avoiding unrealistic expectations in Crypto ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 2of2

23 augusti 2018 | 46 min

Today Niels continues his conversation with Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.

Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how regulators are helping and sometimes hurting managers and clients, the importance of cyber security as a CTA, the way that cryptocurrencies have changed the way we trade, some of the best things that have happened to managed futures over the last twenty years, and how the market has been affected.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The dangers of over-regulation
What we can learn from blow-ups at the manager level and how to avoid them in the future
Why investors need to do their due diligence to avoid fraud
What the NFA considers in reviewing educational and promotional materials
How to ensure your promotional material is meeting NFA guidelines
Why pundits on news shows are allowed to make predictions on markets that may be just an educated guess
The importance of cyber security and how to you can protect yourself
What impact cryptocurrencies may have on futures markets
How regulators are working to help clients avoid unrealistic expectations in cryptocurrencies
The best things that have happened to managed futures in the last twenty years
What has changed regarding the Volcker rule in the past few years
How flat fee products are changing the industry
Why we need to worry about the “race to zero”

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures Association

Learn more about Arthur Bell and Bell Tower LLC

Learn more about JP Bruynes and Akin Gump

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT14: What it takes to set up a CTA business ft. Jennifer Sunu, Arthur Bell & JP Bruynes – 1of2

16 augusti 2018 | 44 min

On today’s episode Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Jennifer Sunu, who is the director of compliance at the NFA, Arthur Bell, CPA and managing member of Bell Tower LLC, and JP Bruynes, who is a partner at the law firm Akin Gump.

Listen in to today’s episode as we focus on how the managed futures industry is organized, how it has changed since the industry started, who the key players are and what role do they play, and how regulators keep an eye on all these players to ensure they play fairly.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What got our guests into managed futures
The basic structure of the managed futures industry
What role each of the key players have in managed futures
How the different regulatory bodies work together in the US
The different ways that hedge fund management has changed over the last twenty years
How the industry has evolved over the last forty years
Why our guests believe that investing in managed futures is a good idea
What it takes to set up a CTA today
The importance of understanding your edge as a CTA
What first steps a new CTA is going to take in working with regulators
What Jennifer recommends for younger CTA’
The questions new investors should be asking to find the best CTA for them

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Jennifer Sunu and the National Futures Association

Learn more about Arthur Bell and Bell Tower LLC

Learn more about JP Bruynes and Akin Gump

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU105: The Many Flavors of Trend Following ft. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen of DUNN Capital (Europe)

9 juli 2018 | 73 min

We’re changing things up on today’s episode of the podcast: we have with us Frank Conway from the Economic Rockstar Podcast interviewing Niels about trend following strategies, asset allocation, and more. Listen in to find out what changes need to be made in the trend following space, the importance and benefits of your asset allocation when it comes to your investments, and new publications that can take you farther in mastering trend following and managed futures.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Niels has worked hard to keep his explanation of trend following as simple as possible
Why at the end of the day, all investors are trend followers
What really sets one trend follower apart from another
How trend following techniques have evolved over time
What traits Niels sees in the company he works with as most important in their 40+ year success
The challenges and difficulties of trend following
Why trying to do it yourself in trend following can hurt rather than help
Why successfully executing a trend following strategy is not something that Niels believes everybody can or should do
Why despite their successes, many trend followers feel an embarrassment in showing their track records
How the right asset allocation can build safer and better performing portfolios
Why it’s important to have “skin in the game” as an investment manager
The importance of COI versus ROI
What Niels thinks of cryptocurrencies and how it relates to trend following
Why DUNN Capital trades the VIX and its importance in their portfolio
What inspired Niels to write his recent books on trend following and managed futures
The purpose behind Niels outreach, whether it’s podcasts, books, newsletters, or anything else
What Niels hopes people will get out of his books

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU104: The Passive & The Active Investor ft. Harold de Boer of Transtrend – 2of2

21 juni 2018 | 40 min

Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Harold de Boer, and discuss his philosophy behind pure trend and divergent trading, as well as why Harold believes Transtrend is unique in the managed future space. In this episode, we talk about the benefits of synthetic trading, Harold’s advice to a new rising star, and what he is looking forward to going forward.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Harold views pure trend and divergent trading within Transtrend
What pure trend means today in comparison to what it used to mean
What it means to Harold to serve his clients best through his trading
How trading synthetic markets helps to profit from trends
What Harold thinks is unique about Transtrend’s trading model
The research projects that inspire Harold right now
Why Harold believes it’s unrealistic to expect returns without volatility
The differences between the passive and active investor
What excites Harold about 2018
The things that scare Harold and keep him up at night
Why risk management should be done by anticipation, not by response

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on Twitter

Follow Harold de Boer on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU103: Trading In The Medium-Term Space ft. Harold de Boer of Transtrend – 1of2

15 juni 2018 | 39 min

Harold De Boer is a Managing Director, Member of Management Committee and Member of Board of Directors at Transtrend B.V. Growing up, Harold’s interest in statistics grew out of his work at his family’s dairy farm, and expanded into the world of trading and managed futures. Listen in to learn about Harold’s unique perspective on the industry, his marketing philosophy, and some of the most important lessons he’s learned during his successful career.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Harold got started with statistics at a young age
Why Harold’s first job as a mathematician was intended to be only temporary
How that first job transformed into Harold’s work at Transtrend
When the Turtles project was discovered by Transtrend in its early years
How being bought by a larger organization did not affect Transtrend’s operation
Some of Harold’s biggest lessons he has learned
How his time on a dairy farm informs Harold’s approach to trend following
What investors underestimate and don’t understand about managed futures
The only thing that actually drives the markets
How market dynamics changed as a result of the transition from floor trading to electronic trading
Why Harold believes that Transtrends program should be called “medium-term”
Why Harold believes positive alpha does not actually exist

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on Twitter

Follow Harold de Boer on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU102: What Institutions have Learnt about Investing ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 2of2

24 maj 2018 | 33 min

Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Nigol Koulajian, and discuss if his strategies of working with, around, and doing the opposite of what many investors are doing, has given him any advantages? In this episode, we talk about the risk of research and data affecting the market, why he distrusts in many institutional teachings of finance, and what he is looking forward to this year.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How savvy investors stay ahead of the curve
Why you need to isolate yourself from the hivemind of mainstream investors
Why those using smart beta have not succeeded recently
Nigol’s opinion on VIX’s impact in and outside the managed futures industry
How Nigol adapts to the changing industry
Why Nigol calls filtering the “holy grail” and how he uses it
The state of institutional and scientific learning of investing
How research into the markets affects their behavior
What opportunities 2018 brings for Nigol and other investors
Why Nigol believes CTA’s are still very useful for managed futures

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on Twitter

Follow Nigol Koulajian on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU101: Should You Trust The Short-Term Over The Long-Term? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2

18 maj 2018 | 37 min

Nigol Koulajian is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC, and has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years. Coming from Columbia business school, many of Nigol’s general practices seem counter-intuitive but have consistently yielded results. This interview will help get you deeper into the trading and management philosophy that has made Quest Partners such a successful firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Nigol got started with trading systems
How Quest Partners grew to where it is today
What Nigol has learned from his unique path into managed futures
Why clearly defining your process is value added to your product
Why Nigol is okay with always being in a state of failure
How developing nuance in his intuitive process has become Nigol’s greatest asset
What role meditation has played in Nigol’s career
What factors played into Quest’s success
Why Quest takes tail risk into account while normalizing returns
Why Nigol puts more trust in short-term over the long-term
Some of Nigol’s short-term trading strategies
What Nigol is studying right now
How writing white papers has helped Nigol’s relationships with his clients
Why focusing on your investors can be hurting your long-term growth
How Quest Partners has changed to fit the post-2010 financial climate
The problem with smart beta

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on Twitter

Follow Nigol on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU100: Being Transparent With Your Clients ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

19 april 2018 | 39 min

In our continued conversation with Robert Sinnott, Katy Kaminski and I dive into why AlphaSimplex has been so successful, why Robert values transparency in his firm so highly, and what he advises for new and rising-star investors. He goes deep into what he is excited about and afraid of with managed futures, and what he’s looking forward to accomplishing with AlphaSimplex in the future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why AlphaSimplex maintains a pure trend program
What problems in the trend following space Robert hopes to solve
The challenges that AlphaSimplex deals with on a regular basis
What factors have given AlphaSimplex its success
Why Robert holds transparency in such high regard
How the models Robert uses employ smart long-term and short-term assessment and why
When your size as a firm hurts your performance
What about managed futures makes Robert the most excited
The things about managed futures that keep Robert up at night
Why the models you are reading about are wrong
Robert’s advice for young and rising star investors
Why Robert believes the right question can often more important than the answer

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”
Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha”

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU99: The Good and Bad of Machine Learning ft. Robert Sinnott of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

14 april 2018 | 35 min

From the very beginning, Robert Sinnott has studied the movement of the markets and how to anticipate their changes. Robert earned both an A.B. and an A.M. in Statistics from Harvard University, where he focused on statistical machine learning, capital markets, and time series analysis.

In our conversation, my co-host Katy Kaminski and I talk with Robert about how he has used these skills to redesign AlphaSimplex’s performance analytics infrastructure and develop smarter machine learning processes, and how Robert employs this data with such success.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The history behind AlphaSimplex and how it began
How Robert got involved with AlphaSimplex
How the surrounding technology industry affects Robert’s work
What lessons Robert has learned from his time at AlphaSimplex
How Robert spends his time outside of his work
How adaptive markets shape the way Robert works
Why Robert utilizes machine learning and how it benefits AlphaSimplex
The dangers of relying too much on machine learning
What makes AlphaSimplex’s machine learning so easy to understand

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Joe Blitzstein’s “Introduction to Probability”
Find out more about my co-host Katy Kaminski’s “Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha”

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU98: Adapting to the Ever Changing Markets ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital – 2of2

2 mars 2018 | 38 min

Katy Kaminski and I continue our conversation with Marty Bergin, and discuss his philosophy behind DUNN Capital’s success, and why many investors don’t understand trend following strategies. In this episode, we will discuss what investors and trend followers should be focusing on, and what risks excessive regulation may lead to for the industry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How DUNN views it’s expansion into more markets
Why their NO management fee policy has helped DUNN throughout the years
How DUNN will adapt to the ever changing market environment
What investors have a hard time understanding about trend followers
Marty’s goal over the next ten years
What Marty fears most in his work at DUNN
The most important question investors should be asking themselves right now
Why Marty believes trend following strategies should be more widely available
Marty’s advice to young investors and aspiring trend followers

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about DUNN: www.dunncapital.com

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU97: Putting Your Clients First...Always ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital – 1of2

25 februari 2018 | 33 min

Our guest today is the President and Owner of DUNN Capital. Having a deep background in finance and business management, Marty oversees all mission-critical operations of the firm, including the firm’s research and development efforts as well as the construction and management of the firm’s managed futures portfolios.

In our conversation, my co-host Katy Kaminski and I discuss with Marty DUNN Capital’s client-first business model, why he believes that their Adaptive Risk Profile has been a game-changer since its introduction in 2013, and how DUNN Capital has evolved since he joined more than 20 years ago.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Bill Dunn started DUNN Capital
How Marty minimizes risk down to the base level
What lessons Marty has learned from his time at DUNN Capital
Why Marty believes being client-centric is key to DUNN Capital’s success
How research plays a larger role within DUNN Capital than most people think
How DUNN Capital has changed since Marty joined
How Marty views return dispersion
Why certain “diverse” stock choices are not very diverse
What makes DUNN’s Adaptive Risk Profile unique
The one thing that is missing from Marty’s trend following program

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT13: The legacy of AHL ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 3of3

1 september 2017 | 33 min

On this special episode, my guests are the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.

We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about how they developed their investing strategies, some of the most surprising decisions they ever made, and what kind of legacy they would like to leave behind.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What Mike, David & Marty had to un-learn in order to improve their strategies
Why David believes education can crush creativity
How some “new” optimization methods hurts investors
What David and Marty least like about their current strategies
What they plan on doing when they no longer run their firms
How David approaches succession planning
The most important investment principles the guests would leave for their children
Why only a small amount of investors still keep managed futures as a core allocation
The most important decisions they ever made
Which decisions had the most surprising results
If the media will ever understand what managed futures actually are
The legacy that AHL left in the world of investing

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs

Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group

Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT12: You don't have to be good...but you have to be useful ft. Adam, Harding & Lueck of AHL – 2of3

25 augusti 2017 | 43 min

On this special episode, I continue my conversation with the founders of AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.

We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about what AHL’s founders did after they created the company, what they’ve learned along the way about business and life, and how they view the current market climates.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The future of a science-driven trading approach
What David’s vision was when he started Winton Capital
The beginnings of Aspect Capital
Why Winton moved away from traditional trend following
The challenges that equities and managed futures present for investors
Why David chose to lower volatility of his strategy
Michael’s experience with deep value investing
When it’s time to ask “do you want to be happy or rich?”
What caused Michael to leave the industry
How they have evolve using different data sources and new markets
The danger of “hindsight bias”
What disadvantages machine learning have presented
Why Marty views asset allocation as part of a trend following model
How they see our current financial climate

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs

Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group

Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT11: AHL 30 Year Anniversary ft. Michael Adam, David Harding & Marty Lueck – 1of3

18 augusti 2017 | 44 min

I was thrilled to be joined by the founders of AHL, to celebrate their 30 year anniversay of founding AHL: Michael Adam who later co-founded Aspect Capital, David Harding also known as founder and CEO of Winton Capital and Marty Lueck also one of the co-founders of Aspect Capital.

We sat down in the famous Abbey Road Studios in London to talk about AHL’s beginnings, the revolutionary discoveries that AHL made, how MAN Group became the owner of AHL, as well as all the great things that Michael, David and Marty went on to create.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How AHL got it’s start
Why Michael’s father was instrumental in the beginning of AHL
What struck David when testing their early algorithms
Why their “empiricist” outlook gave them an early advantage
How technology’s limits pushed their ideas
The breakthroughs of AHL’s early research and how it still applies today
Why being a consultant gave AHL deep insight into trading the markets
The crucial role the early clients had in AHL’s development
The power of finding the right people to work with
Why Michael preferred working with “unformed” employees
How the original deal between MAN and MINT influenced AHL
What the larger financial community initially thought about AHL
How AHL brought in investors in those early days

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Michael Adam and Mike Marlin and The Melomaniacs

Learn more about David Harding and Winton Group

Learn more about Marty Lueck and Aspect Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT10: The challenge pension funds face with Risk Mitigation ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 2of2

14 juli 2017 | 35 min

On this episode I continue my conversation Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

When do you stop adding more managers?
Ela’s magic range of managers
Carrie’s approach to choosing managers
How management fees should be structured
What advice Carrie would give to other pensions planning to start allocating to risk mitigation strategies
Why Ela recommends a thorough preparation and vision for risk mitigation strategies
Ryan’s thoughts on trends during dislocation periods
What challenges the guests had to overcome as part of their implementation process
Why CalPERS are leaving hedge funds when CalSTRS are adding them, even when some of the board members are the same

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research Association

Learn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance Board

Learn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRS

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

RT09: Why & How CalSTERS mitigate Risk ft. Ryan Abrams, Ela Karahasanoglu & Carrie Lo – 1of2

25 juni 2017 | 41 min

On this episode my very special guests are Ryan Abrams, Portfolio Manager at Wisconsin Alumni Research Association, Ela Karahasanoglu, VP at Workplace Safety and Insurance Board, and Carrie Lo, Director of Hedge Strategies at CalSTRS, for a fun and insightful conversation about how to mitigate the Risk in a Portfolio using Managed Futures.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Carrie diligently prepared her new Risk Mitigation Strategies (RMS)
How much CalSTRS will initially allocate to the RMS part for their $200bn+ portolio
How Ryan uses risk mitigation strategies in his organization
How Ela is slowly restructuring her alternative portfolio
The risks of risk parity strategies
Is trend-following really an opportunity cost question?
How Carrie has worked with the CalSTRS board on implementing this strategy
Why Ela has focused more on tail-risk strategies
Carrie’s manager selection process

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Ryan Abrams and Wisconsin Alumni Research Association

Learn more about Ela Karahasanoglu and Workplace Safety and Insurance Board

Learn more about Carrie Lo and CalSTRS

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT08: Two Turtles & their Mentor ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 2of2

9 maj 2017 | 36 min

On this episode my guests are Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The good and bad of targeting volatility
How Jerry and Brian used the rules they learned through the Turtle experience
Why the Turtle program was just “another piece of risk” Rich took on his book
Jerry’s experience during and after the program
Brian’s two biggest takeaways from the Turtle program
If proper trading can be a real business?
What Rich would do differently in 2017
The state of trend following today
If being a good trader is enough to run a successful business?
About other passions of the Turtles outside of trend following and trading
Rich’s secret “career” in baseball
If Rich has found any counter-trend strategies that work
Jerry’s views on changing and adapting too much
What academia thought of trend following 40 years ago

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle program

Learn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital Advisors

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT07: The Turtle Reunion ft. Richard Dennis, Brian Proctor & Jerry Parker – 1of2

17 april 2017 | 38 min

Today I'm joined by Richard Dennis, creator of the Turtle program, Brian Proctor, managing director of EMC Capital Advices, and Jerry Parker, founder and president of Chesapeake Capital, for a rare conversation about the inner workings of the Turtle program, told for the first time by Richard himself.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Rich’s first introduction to trend following
Jerry’s early days in the Turtle program
How Brian ended up as a Turtle
The TRUTH about where the Turtle name came from
The surprising way Rich came up with the idea for the Turtle group…NOT what you expect!
Why Jerry did not answer the first call from Rich when applying for the program
The preferred qualities of the Turtle recruits
Why it was hard to predict which of the Turtles would succeed
Why persistence is important in trend following
The relevance of the Turtle group in the past and today
If diversification among markets is always the best practice?
The right balance of financial futures markets and commodity futures markets
Why more investors haven’t embraced trend following…yet?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Richard Dennis and the Turtle program

Learn more about Brian Proctor and EMC Capital Advisors

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT06: The future of hedge funds ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 2of2

23 mars 2017 | 39 min

We are back with another great conversation where my guests are Chris Solarz, Managing Director, Global Macro Hedge Fund Strategies at Cliffwater, Adam Duncan, Managing Director at Cambridge Associates as well as Freeman Wood, who is a Partner and Head of North America, at Mercer, for a deep dive into the world of Consultants in Alternative Investments.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

If there are there enough assets to go around
What made 2015 such a weak year for hedge funds
Why 2016 was such a strong year for hedge funds
The future of hedge fund investing
What Chris thinks hedge fund managers have done poorly
How Adam looks at fees as a coin toss
Why Freeman thinks that fees must add value to both parties
The guest’s biggest takeaways from 2016
How the rise of the voter is providing opportunities to hedge fund managers
The coming possibility of an equity correction, and it’s effects
The question everyone should be asking right now
Why a client needs a goal and a timeline for their assets

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Solarz and Cliffwater

Learn more about Adam Duncan and Cambridge Associates

Learn more about Freeman Wood and Mercer

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT05: What Consultants look for in a manager ft. Chris Solarz, Adam Duncan & Freeman Wood – 1of2

7 mars 2017 | 41 min

My guests today are Chris Solarz, Managing Director, Global Macro Hedge Fund Strategies at Cliffwater, Adam Duncan, Managing Director at Cambridge Associates as well as Freeman Wood, who is a Partner and Head of North America, at Mercer, for a fun and insightful conversation into the world of Consultants and their role in Alternative Investments.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How our guests got to where they are today
What challenges Adam sees institutional investors facing
The extra information Chris gives his clients
How the role of the consultant has changed
Two issues that frustrate consultants, and how our guests solve them
Freeman’s view of the role of the financial decision makers
How to bridge the gap between the managers and the investors
What your theoretical models can’t account for
Why past hedge fund managers were able to pursue a more “pure” strategy
The practical implications of having a larger fund
The pros and cons of smaller and larger managers
How Chris developed his key business strategies
What red flags new startups can avoid

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Chris Solarz and Cliffwater

Learn more about Adam Duncan and Cambridge Associates

Learn more about Freeman Wood and Mercer

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT04: What is the right fee structure? ft. Marty Bergin, Grant Jaffarian & Mike Boss – 2of2

19 februari 2017 | 31 min

On this episode I continue my conversation with Marty Bergin, the owner and President of DUNN Capital Management, Grant Jaffarian, Portfolio Manager of the Advanced Trend program at Crabel Capital Management, and Mike Boss, who is a Director within the Capital Introductions Team at Societe General, where we cover all things trend following and some of the differences to short-term trading.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How to use your management and incentive fees to compete
Grants’s competitive strategy for his flat-fee product
Why a robust risk management system is extremely important
Who is winning the battle between the low-cost products and the traditional trend following offerings
If the increased number of investors using trend following is impacting returns?
How rising interest rates will affect long- and short-term trend followers
The guest’s biggest takeaways from 2016
If machine learning is already being used by trend following firms?

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Marty Bergin and DUNN Capital Management

Learn more about Grant Jaffarian and Crabel Capital Management

Learn more about Mike Boss and Societe General

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT03: The challenge with Experience ft. Marty Bergin, Grant Jaffarian & Mike Boss – 1of2

5 februari 2017 | 34 min

Today I'm joined by Marty Bergin, the owner and President of DUNN Capital Management, Grant Jaffarian, Portfolio Manager of the Advanced Trend program at Crabel Capital Management, and Mike Boss, who is a Director within the Capital Introductions Team at Societe General, for a fun and insightful journey into the world of Trend Following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Key Insights from arguably the best Trend Follower & the best Short-Term CTA
How the challenges they overcame to get to where they are today
How trend followers can evolve their strategies to stay ahead
The reason why some trend followers haven’t changed in decades
Key insights to how Marty has allowed DUNN to stay ahead
How Mike & Societe Generale sees the industry changing and it’s new opportunities
Why the UCITS Directive started benefitting smaller specialized managers
The challenges with short-term trading
Why Crabel is strict with its capacity
The research that increased Crabel’s bottom line
How to ensure that CTA flagship offerings retain value over low-cost alternatives

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Marty Bergin and DUNN Capital Management

Learn more about Grant Jaffarian and Crabel Capital Management

Learn more about Mike Boss and Societe General

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT02: The biggest challenge for institutions ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 2of2

16 januari 2017 | 25 min

Today I continue my conversation with Amy Elefante Bedi, Director of Hedged Strategies at Washington University Investment Management Company in St. Louis, Ernest Jaffarian, the CEO of Efficient Capital Management as well Phil Hatzopoulos , who is the Global Head of Buyside Sales at the CME Group.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What the response has been to lower performance of hedge funds in recent years
How managers have dealt with the challenging performance environment
What institutional investors are looking to get out of the Managed Futures space
How Smart Beta is being used
If its true that you get what you pay for
The movement towards BIG data
The concern of investors about the fixed income sector
What would happen if interest rates starts going up
What the biggest opportunities are for the Managed Futures industry in 2017
How regulations could destroy the industry
The biggest challenge that institutions face before they embrace CTAs
How to overcome the fear of investing in the Managed Futures space

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Amy Elefante Bedi and

Washington University’s Investment Management Company

Learn more about Ernest Jaffarian and Efficient Capital Management

Learn more about Phillip Hatzopoulos and CME Group

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

RT01: How to find talented managers ft. Amy Elefante Bedi, Ernest Jaffarian & Phil Hatzopoulos – 1of2

4 januari 2017 | 27 min

On this episode I'm joined by Amy Elefante Bedi, Director of Hedged Strategies at Washington University Investment Management Company in St. Louis, Ernest Jaffarian, the CEO of Efficient Capital Management as well Phil Hatzopoulos , who is the Global Head of Buyside Sales at the CME Group - to explore the world of Alternative Investments and why they are so valuable to investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Key Insights from industry leaders in Managed Futures
How they got where they are today
What Ernest did to change his career to Managed Futures
The hesitations that endowments have had when investing in the CTA industry
What is the state of the fund-to-fund model today
The importance of diversifying your portfolio
How to find and access talent in the Managed Futures space
Questions to ask a manager when deciding on your allocations
The issue of fees and the debate surrounding it
The performance of CTAs in the last decade

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Amy Elefante Bedi and

Washington University’s Investment Management Company

Learn more about Ernest Jaffarian and Efficient Capital Management

Learn more about Phillip Hatzopoulos and CME Group

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU96: The Simplicity of Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 2of2

19 maj 2016 | 42 min

Thanks for tuning in to the second part of our roundtable conversation with three of the leading voices in the trend following industry today. In this episode, we discuss how the industry has evolved, what the future looks like, and how to educate investors on the merits of trend following.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How has trend following evolved in the past decade
The different kinds of diversification and how important they are
The concept of divergent strategies
Different ways of generating signals
Why entries are the least important
How to figure out what are the most robust parameters to use
Why you should try to debunk any new trading ideas
How trend following CTAs perform risk control
How to educate investors on trend following firms and methods
How many trend following managers should you invest in

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy Kaminski on Linkedin

Follow Alex Greyserman on Linkedin

Follow Roberto Osorio on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU95: Redefining Trend Following ft. Katy Kaminski, Alex Greyserman & Roberto Osorio – 1of2

6 maj 2016 | 54 min

Thanks for tuning back into our show, we know it has been a while since we’ve published an episode. However, you are in for a real treat: this is the first episode where we have a roundtable of guests, representing some of the most prominent firms in the trend following space. Our guests have a combined 100 years of track record, and we’ll explore it all in this episode.

We discuss the history of trend following, what it takes to practice trend following, and the human biases that effect our trading.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The history of trend-following
The phenomenon of momentum
When the concept of trend following that we know today came about
Why Katy & Alex gathered data from hundreds of years ago
Katy talks about their book on Trend Following
Why markets are not getting more efficient
Why the edge in Trend Following is “knowing what you don’t know”
How long it took for Alex to start believing in trend following
Roberto’s first exposure to trend following
Why humility is necessary to practice trend following
The importance of taking the human emotion out of the decision process
Katy’s voodoo finance and heuristics
Are all CTA’s trend-followers?
Alex’s Random Entry System that uses coin flips
The three decisions that are involved in a trade
The fact and fiction of how difficult it is to do trend-following
Why humans suffer from representative bias
The factor of simplicity when making a trend following system

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy Kaminski on Linkedin

Follow Alex Greyserman on Linkedin

Follow Roberto Osorio on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

TTU94: Acknowledging Risk on a Daily Basis ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 2of2

17 februari 2016 | 59 min

In our continued conversation with Bill Dreiss, we dive into why he built his model the way that he did, and how he deals with factors like risk, drawdowns, and investor relationships. You’ll discover what he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through, how the market has changed since 2009, and what the future looks like for Dreiss Research.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How he thinks about succession planning
What people should be aware of in his long track record as a firm
What has changed in the markets since 2009
How markets are more interrelated than they ever have been before
How he describes what he is trying to achieve for his investors
Why you shouldn’t be investing if you can’t live through a 50% drawdown
What the choppiness index is
Why it is so difficult for people to see the advantages of CTAs and trend following
How many commodities he trades
How diversified his trading program is
What differentiates Dreiss Research from other trend following CTAs
How he measures volatility
How he defines risk and manages risk
Why you can over-manage risk and how to weather the drawdowns
What he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through
How to manage a relationship with clients so that they trust the firm during drawdowns
The biggest challenges in his long career
What it takes to be a good trader
Why the world is too full of quants and people should use their talents in other fields

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU93: Location Independence with Systematic Trading ft. Bill Dreiss of Dreiss Research Corporation – 1of2

8 februari 2016 | 61 min

Bill Dreiss has been an early adopter from the very beginning. After going to MIT and Harvard, he wanted to form a business that would allow him to be location independent and allow him to surf, his life passion. Fortunately, systems trading found him.

He bought a computer before individuals owned them, started a systems trading firm before almost any of them existed, and has been in business trading his own model fro more than 25 years. You’ll gain a career’s worth of knowledge in this fantastic episode.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Bill’s firm is so unique
How he went to Harvard business school and then went to work for a Think Tank in California
How he developed his first trading system in the 1970s
How he did systematic trading by hand in the early days, without computers
The unique system that was the first system he built
The first company that he started with a few partners in early 1975
How he used to manage 180 clients before computers
The first computer he bought before individuals owned computers
Why he stopped managing outside money for a few years
What made him setup his current company in 1991
How he setup his first trading model with Dreiss Research Corporation
Why he was heavily influenced by Boinot Mandelbrot
Why trend following is declared dead every few years, but why it is only sleeping
Why he trades longer term and only updates his system about once a week
How he first managed to automate his system way before other people were able to do it
How the environment has changed from very few system traders to almost completely system traders
What differentiates Bill from a lot of other system traders
How he deals with risk management
What drives him in his career and how he has kept it up for so long
Why he thinks in how much leisure time he can have rather than how much money he could make
How marketing a firm is very important
Why surfing is so important to him
Why being location independent was very important to him in setting up his business

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU92: Clear & Explainable Trend Models ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management – 2of2

25 januari 2016 | 63 min

In our continued conversation with Andreas Clenow, we discuss the research and work that goes into making his trading model, how he deals with risk and drawdowns, and how he explains his models to potential investors. In this episode, we will dive into how clear and explainable a trading model should be, and what questions you should ask firms before investing in them.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Andreas does his research and what research he looks for in other firms
Why a track record matters and how it matters
How trend following has done over the last few years
How he builds his own trading strategies
What he does with position sizing and how important it is
How he allocates risk on his different models
What he does to measure the environment on trend following
What he thinks about sector allocation and diversification
The kinds of risk management that he uses in his model
Where he uses stop losses and where he doesn’t
How he talks to investors about drawdowns
What questions investors should be asking him about his trading model
How to detect if a manager’s strategy has stopped working
Why people shouldn’t be scared of asking lots of questions
What motivates him to work on his job
About the biggest failures of Andreas’ career

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
Trend Following with Managed Futures by Kathryn Kaminski
Listen to my interview with Kathryn Kaminski here and here
Dual Momentum Investing by Gary Antonacci
Buy Andreas’ books.
Check out his website FollowingTheTrend.com.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andreas Clenow on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU91: Keeping it Simple in Trend Following ft. Andreas Clenow of ACIES Asset Management

18 januari 2016 | 68 min

Our guest today is a successful trader, businessman, and author. He is known for his books Following The Trend and Stocks on the Move, and after an impressive career at Reuters finance he moved on to ACIES Asset Management in Switzerland.

In our conversation, we discuss trend following and the need to keep it simple, the mistakes that retail traders make, and how to start a new firm in this day and age.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The many skill sets that Andreas has
How he wrote the books that he is known for
Why he has a large degree of flexibility with his firm and the capital they manage
How he grew up in a small town in Sweden…with lots of cows!
About the computer company that he started
How he left the corporate world
How he started at ACIES
What Andreas does when he is not working
The books he has written about systematic trading strategies
The value of simplicity
What Andreas thinks about trend following
The issues with doing trend following on stocks
How he got the freedom to write a book
What retail traders will get from his books
Why managing your own money is a bad trade
What he thinks about technical analysis and how to define it
What it takes to start a firm or trading business

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andreas Clenow on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU90: Why Diversification is Key ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 2of2

9 december 2015 | 73 min

In the second part of our conversation with Robert Carver, we dive into the specifics of his trading strategy, why he doesn’t trade full time, and what he thinks about the trend-following space in general.

You’ll hear his thoughts on drawdowns, research teams, risk, and more. You won’t want to miss his insight and clear explanations of some of finance’s most complicated topics.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The two components of risk, and all about unpredictable risk
What sets one manager apart from the other
His view on stop-losses
How target volatility works for a lot of CTA managers
How he would put together a research team for a fund manager
The problem with hiring a lot of people with the same background
How investors should read the track records of firms
The concerns and misconceptions about systematized and trend-following strategies
Why he is so keen on looking at sharp ratio
The issues with skew but why he keeps an eye on it
What his own trading system looks like today
The style of trader that he ended up becoming
How to find out what to expect when a drawdown happens
What investors should ask but they never do
How he got over the failures that he has had in business

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Linkedin

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU89: Creating a Simple System & Sticking To It ft. Robert Carver, Author & Trader – 1of2

2 december 2015 | 77 min

Robert Carver spends most of his book telling you that he is not a good trader. So why did he devote his life and a whole book to the subject?

Because he believes in systematic trading; making a simple trading system and sticking to it.

In this episode, we dive into his new book and explore why simplicity is the key, people think they are better traders than they are, and so much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Robert decided to write his new book, Systematic Trading
Robert reads the preface to his new book
He explains one of the biggest investing mistakes of his career
The book that got him interested in the financial industry
How he got a job with AHL
Why he wrote a book with very little math involved so that he spoke to a large audience
The 3 types of investors that he defines in the book
How cognitive biases in humans make them bad traders
Why he spends a lot of his book explaining how bad he is at trading
Whether trend following and other divergent strategies work or not
Why sticking to a plan is so important
How the markets and CTAs will change once the interest rate changes
The differences between a subjective and an objective system
Things that people should avoid when creating a trading system
Why few people have a good handle on overtrading
Machine learning approaches vs. idea approaches to creating trading programs
How systematic trading adapts

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU88: The Importance of Explaining the Why ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Management – 2of2

22 november 2015 | 72 min

In this episode, we dive into the models and processes that Cambridge Capital and Andrew Baxter use to manage risk, research new ideas, and grow their business. We also talk about the importance for managers to explain why they do what they do, rather than just what they do.

Listen in to learn more about the future of the managed futures industry and how to be successful in it.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How his forecast method works
How he develops his basic models
How they come up with new ideas for models at Cambridge Capital
The various short term and long term models that they employ and how they use them
When they make interventions to the system
The risk management they use and why they have a risk budget
Why they are continuously adjusting their risk in the market
The drawdowns that they expect to see in their program and the ones that they have been through
Why he thinks CTA firms had significantly higher drawdowns in 2013 then they had ever had before
How their research cycles work
How to compare a life track record with a simulation of the current program
Why we should look at why managers do things more than what they do
Why raising assets is the biggest challenge his firm faces today
What it takes to become a great fund manager
The skill that he would pass onto his children
The challenges he sees for the CTA space

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew Baxter on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU87: An Engineer Using Machine Learning to Trade ft. Andrew Baxter of Cambridge Capital Managment – 1of2

15 november 2015 | 77 min

Andrew Baxter worked at British Aerospace as an engineer before joining the investment management world. He still considers himself an engineer.

Listen in to learn how he uses machine learning, why he keeps innovating, and how he started his own firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Andrew considers himself an engineer
How he went from engineer to investment management
How he started his firm
His philosophy on the investment management process
Why he harvests risk premiums
What he likes to do when he is not working
How he works with machine learning
The things they learned from their career history that helped them build Cambridge Capital Management
Why it is important to stay ahead of the pack and keep innovating
What they do in-house versus outsourcing
The culture that he tries to cultivate at his company
How he talks about track record to his investors
How he evolved as the managed futures industry changed over the years
What he does to manage risk
The objective of his program from a top-down view
The different markets that his program trades

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew Baxter on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU86: Predictions on Crude Oil, Copper, War, Plus More on Cycles ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 2of2

15 juli 2015 | 65 min

In this second part of our conversation, we dive into the specifics of how Charles Nenner and his team make their predictions, and what they predict in certain markets like Crude Oil, Copper, and Natural Gas. We also discuss the cycle of a major war at the beginning of each century, and David’s personal story of why he is just as curious today as the day he started.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How they predict the price, and how the price and cycles work together.
The fifth category they predict on is economic indicators.
What is happening when a market is not behaving as the cycle they show indicates.
What are some of the indicators of a big event like 9/11.
Where he thinks Natural Gas is going.
What he thinks about Copper.
The battle between inflation and deflation and where he stands on those terms.
About the 100 year war cycle and what he predicts for the next war.
The cycles of infectious disease.
Why they don’t have a fund that trades off of their predictions.
The different types of clients they have.
Why he does the job that he does.
Why it is important to listen well.
Why he thinks that thinking and listening are a lost art.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.
David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Visit the Website: www.CharlesNenner.com

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU85: The Cycles of Financial Markets ft. David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research – 1of2

7 juli 2015 | 71 min

This episode has a unique and interesting guest, the kind we rarely have on this show. David Gurwitz does not trade in the financial markets, but provides predictions and research to many firms, including some we have interviewed. He looks at the cycles in financial markets. Keep an open mind during this episode and see what you can learn about Charles Nenner’s research methods, the start of their research business, and what predictions they have been correct on and which ones they missed.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How David explains what he does, and how this interview is different.
How he played semi-professional basketball in Spain before going into accounting.
How he met Charles Nenner.
How their business works and how cycles works.
How Charles has predicted crude oil drop in 2014.
What they look at when making their predictions.
How they do media appearances and how media has changed.
How they go about doing their research.
Why sunspots might affect the stock market shifts.
How different cultures are more open to the idea of cycles and their effect on the financial sector.
The predictions they’ve made in recent years on the Yen, Gold, and the Euro.
Why looking back at history can show interesting lessons.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Read the article David mentions in this episode featuring his work in Oil & Gas Investor.
David recommends reading Chaos by James Gleick.
Listen to past episodes with a predictions expert Mahendra Sharma here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Visit the Website: www.CharlesNenner.com

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU84: Being Authentic & Transparent with Your Investors ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 2of2

5 juli 2015 | 63 min

In this second part of our conversation, Natasha dives into the details of the trading model and portfolio of Altis Partners, her firm. We discuss how they approach risk management, and how they’ve dealt with drawdowns over the years. She also gives her take on the future of the managed futures industry, what advice she would give to emerging firm managers, and other lessons she has learned along the way.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About how Natasha and her team constructs their portfolio.
How their models are adaptive.
What their integrated risk approach does and how it works.
What she thinks the capacity is of the strategy that her firm has.
How she defines risk.
How correlations play a part in their portfolio.
Which sectors of the market do well with their model.
How she sets the expectations for what kinds of drawdowns they might have.
How to help investors with the emotional rollercoaster of drawdowns.
How the firm goes about doing research.
How to detect if a certain model stops working.
What lessons they have learned from all their years in business.
How success changes your mindset.
Why it’s good to have people to look up to.
Her biggest challenge facing her firm today.
What investors are not asking when at due diligence meetings with her firm.
Why a long term relationship with a client is important.
What advice she would give to emerging managers today.
Where she thinks the managed futures industry is going as a whole.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Natasha recommends reading The Hard Thing About Hard Things, a book about building a business and entrepreneurship.
She also recommends Fortune’s Formula, by William Poundstone.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Natasha Reeve-Gray on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU83: Starting a Quant Firm from Scratch ft. Natasha Reeve-Gray of Altis Partners – 1of2

29 juni 2015 | 68 min

Our next guest left a well known trading firm in London to start a quantitative trading firm with 3 other partners. There’s a lot to be learned from her insights on starting a business, building a culture, and making it through the obstacles along the way. Listen in for our discussions on the startup phase and the current trading model.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Natasha and her founding partners all worked at the same firm before breaking out on their own.
About her childhood growing up as an only child and what got her interested in finance.
How she got her first job in finance.
When she got hired by QCM.
How she met her founding partners.
How and why Natasha and her founding partners broke off from QCM.
How she set up her new firm with her partners.
How they each had a different area of the business that they focused on.
The big obstacles of the early days and knowing which people to talk to.
What the biggest learning curve was in terms of hiring the right people.
Why they built a 24-month buffer for their business that would let them stay in business if things went down.
Why the’ve gone to the cloud for their business.
The details of their core team.
What would require them to expand the team.
How Natasha explains their track record to investors and potential client.
About how they reacted to the period of 2011-2013.
The details of their trading program and what their philosophy is behind the program.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about the film Trading Places, that inspired Natasha to pursue futures trading.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Natasha Reeve-Gray on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU82: Simplicity vs. Complexity in Trading Models ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiqz – 2of2

8 juni 2015 | 60 min

In the second part of our conversation with the cofounder of Evolutiq, we dive into the firm’s trading strategy, how they manage risk, and what kinds of investors they seek. He also discusses tips for budding entrepreneurs and firm managers, and how he deals with explaining the complexity of his trading models.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The details of Oliver’s portfolio.
What types of markets have more success for their models.
Their unique allocation process.
How to explain these scientific terms to potential investors.
The question of simplicity vs. complexity.
How they managed intra-day forecasting.
How he manages risk.
The way that market correlations play into the portfolio.
Oliver’s thoughts on drawdowns and the worst ones that he is expecting.
How do you know when a model has stopped working.
What Oliver’s experience has been as the world has become more divergent.
What keeps him up at night.
What he is looking at in his research for the firm right now.
How models can start decaying.
Who he is targeting for his firm.
How he manages the cash portion of his accounts.
How setting up a company outside the big financial center affects his business.
What questions investors should be asking him during due diligence meetings.
The advice he would give to aspiring managers.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Oliver recommends reading The Mathematics of Money Management.
He also recommends Algorithmic Trading.
Learn more about Harry Markowitz, mentioned in this episode.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Oliver Steinki on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU81: How A Serial Entrepreneur Built an Algorithmic Trading Firm ft. Oliver Steinki of Evolutiq – 1of2

2 juni 2015 | 63 min

Our next guest has started and invested in many companies, and is from an entrepreneurial background. First and foremost, he is concerned with running a business, but he also knew he wanted to be a portfolio manager from an early age. Hear the fascinating story of Oliver Steinki on this episode, as we dive into his new firm and the details behind his models and strategy.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The entrepreneurial background that Oliver comes from.
How he studied in Germany, Madrid, and Manchester.
About his childhood and when he started to realize he was interested in mathematics and finance.
What he likes doing when he is not managing his own firm.
What algorithmic trading is all about.
How the scientific trading model generates signals.
What the trade implementation phase entails and how it works.
What it is that Oliver is trying to deliver to his investors.
About the other companies he started before his current firm, and all the different industries those companies are in.
Why he is a business man first and a trader second.
Who is on his team and the roles they fill.
Why the early phase of his business is important and what you can learn from how Oliver tackles this phase.
How he would scale his current business model.
How he creates a culture and keeps a partnership with his cofounders.
His track record so far.
The details of how his strategy is created.
What a levy-process model is.
How many models he is testing and trading and how different they are.
Why they need to be right 54% of the time with their models.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Read about the French mathematician that Oliver discusses, Paul Lévy.
Niels mentions his earlier conversations with Dave Sanderson, which you can listen to here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Oliver Steinki on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU80: Managing Your Emotional Capital ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Managementz – 2of2

20 april 2015 | 64 min

In the second part of our conversation with Mike Coleman, we explore the different commodity markets and how RCMA trades them, and look back at the drawdowns that Mike has gone through and what he has learned from them. We discuss risk, idea generation, and what it takes to build a successful firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How correlation plays an important role in what Mike does.
What he thinks of the current oil market and the outlook for oil.
How they use relative value trading and what that is.
What process they have for getting an idea into an actual position.
How they have a different relationship between trader and analyst than other firms do.
How he defines risk and how he looks at risk management.
What he has learned from the drawdowns he has gone through.
How to get the investor’s confidence in the manager to a place where they don’t drop out at the worst time.
Why regulatory risk is something that keeps him up at night.
How his strategy has changed over time.
If it’s possible to backtest any part of his strategy.
What the typical investor in his firm looks like.
What location means for a business like Mike’s.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Coleman on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU79: The Romance of Trading Commodities ft. Mike Coleman of RCMA Asset Management – 1of2

13 april 2015 | 67 min

Our next guest lives in Singapore, where he founded a firm that trades in the commodity markets. In this episode, we trace his upbringing in the UK and his first job at Cargill to the start of his firm. We discuss the growth and downsizing periods he has gone through and how he builds a successful business.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Where Mike grew up and how his upbringing shaped his career.
How he was interested in travel from an early age, and found out about commodity trading in his final year of university.
How he started out as a commodity merchant with Cargill.
How he fell into rubber trading which led him to Singapore in 1984.
About the beginnings of RCMA.
How the commodity markets have changed over the years, and what kinds of companies are still working with commodity trading.
The most important things he learned at Cargill that helped in the management of his own firm.
What he learned before computers become ubiquitous on trading desks.
What Mike likes to do in his spare time.
How to make sure you are set up for success when you start a business or firm.
How you get through the hard times of your business as an entrepreneur.
What he does to organize his firm to make it run in the best way possible.
How they’ve dealt with a boom and bust phase in their business, including personnel.
The way that he has built the culture in his business.
How investors should read a track record from a discretionary trader.
What patterns he looks for when trading for commodities.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Coleman on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU78: If You Believe In Your Models, Never Deviate From Them ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 2of2

31 mars 2015 | 82 min

In our second part of this conversation, we dive into the details of the program that Kim runs. We discuss why it’s important to stick with your models, even in times of severe drawdowns, and how Kim views risk. He also talks about the books and people that have inspired him in his career.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The details behind the program Kim runs.
What he feels about larger drawdowns.
What kind of indicators goes into the models that he uses.
Why he uses a non-cyclical approach to creating trading models.
How he looks at volatility.
What kind of mean reversion strategies he uses.
How he responded to the Swiss Franc move.
How Kim quantifies risk.
How do you prepare for a drawdown when you haven’t gone through a significant one?
How his firm comes up with new ideas and goes about doing research.
The positives and challenges with working as a father and son team in the same firm.
How he knows when a model has stopped working.
What he is doing to launch his first fund.
What questions investors should be asking in due diligence conversations with him.
What books have impacted Kim’s career.
How he sees the firm in the future.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Books that have influenced Kim include Market Wizards, The Quants, and books by Ralph Vince.

Learn more about people who have inspired Kim, including Roy Niederhoffer, Welles Wilder, and John Henry.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kim Bang on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU77: Competing in the Long Tail of Managed Futures ft. Kim Bang of Prolific Capital Markets – 1of2

24 mars 2015 | 84 min

Kim Bang grew up with his father’s shipping industry in Denmark, and discovered a fascination of the managed futures industry. He went on to work for companies such as Bloomberg and AIG, before founding his current firm with his son. Listen to his story and find out what makes a firm that can compete in the managed futures industry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Kim grew up in Denmark with his dad in the shipping business.
How he got into futures markets through his dad’s business.
Kim’s education in the U.S. and his first job on Wall Street.
How he left AIG to start his own business.
His time at Bloomberg building and running their TradeBook system.
About Kim’s son’s research club at New York University.
How he decided what to do next after his company was sold.
How he launched Prolific Capital Markets in 2013.
What he does when he’s not working.
How he built his business.
The funds needed to start his business and how institutional clients should be sought after.
What he can do himself and what he has outsourced.
How he builds a strong culture in his organization.
What his track record means to his potential investors.
What Kim is trying to achieve with the program itself.
What kind of environments are good for his program.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kim Bang on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU76: Why He Still Trades His Own Money ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 2of2

5 mars 2015 | 52 min

In the second part of our conversation with Barnaby Cardwell, we dive into the details of his program, how he built his company, and what he thinks it takes to be a good manager of a trading firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What indicators Barnaby considers more reliable.
How he gets into a trade.
How important is the position sizing?
How much AUM his model can handle.
Risk management: how he defines risk and what he does to mitigate it.
What he has learned from drawdowns.
What keeps Barnaby awake at night.
Trading spread between markets and the research his firm is doing into that space.
Why he focuses on the managed-account route.
How he stands out from the crowd to attract investors.
About “key-man” risk.
What potential investors don’t ask in their due diligence questions.
What it takes to be a great trader.
What books have inspired him in trading and life.
What his biggest failure is so far.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

People that have inspired Barnaby include James Harris Simons, QIM, and the book Trading in the Zone.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Barnaby Cardwell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU75: Competing in the Short Term Space ft. Barnaby Cardwell of Cardwell Investment Technologies – 1of2

2 mars 2015 | 58 min

Our next guest is a fund manager in the short-term space, and thus is distinct from many of the guests on this podcast. He discusses how he got into the financial markets from a young age, and why he decided to trade in the short term space in order to separate himself from the competition. Listen in for details into his program and how he started his hedge fund.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Barnaby grew up and what got him interested in the financial markets.
Why he left being a broker and went in to a more systematic approach.
How he met his future business partner.
How they started his fund in late 2008.
What it was about the Market Wizards books that captured his imagination.
What he does to compete outside of trading.
His first mentor and what he taught Barnaby.
Why he decided to go short term.
How automation has changed his industry.
How he gets through the hard times in the market.
An overview of the program that his company runs.
How he set up his company and attracted investors.
The challenges that let to auto-execution of trades.
How he builds a strong culture in an organization.
How he wants people to look at his track record.
Why he uses time-based stops.
The details of the short term models he uses.
How he creates a strategy.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Market Wizards and Jack Schwager.

Check out information on Toby Crabel and his book.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Barnaby Cardwell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU74: 2015 Predictions for Currencies, Gold, Oil and More ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 2of2

26 februari 2015 | 68 min

In this second episode with Mahendra, he dives into his predictions for 2015 and the next few years, detailing his thoughts on markets from currencies, gold and silver to oil and real estate markets. He discusses how he sees key geo-political events resolving or worsening in the years to come. You may gain advice and insight that will change how you trade and what you trade in the financial markets!

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The drastic rise in volatility Mahendra is expecting for this year and next.
What he thinks about where Oil is going to go.
What happens when his predictions come true very quickly.
His predictions and success with the gold market and the 52-year era for gold.
What he thinks about Copper and Silver.
What he sees for the major currencies going forward.
How Mahendra sees the future of the European Union and their currency.
What he predicts that does not pertain to the financial markets.
Why he stopped predicting events that were not in the financial market.
What he thinks about the real estate markets for the coming years.
The problems he sees coming from 2017 onwards.
What he predicts for the banking stocks in 2015.
How nature influences humans.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU73: He sees Dow Jones going to 32,000 ft. Mahendra Sharma of Financial Astrology – 1of2

21 februari 2015 | 72 min

Welcome to an episode of Top Trader’s Unplugged unlike any other. We take a break from interviews with hedge fund managers and invite you into the fascinating world of financial astrology. Mahendra Sharma dedicates his astrology and predictions work exclusively on the financial markets, and has had an astonishing accuracy of predicting market events. Learn about his story, including his upbringing without electricity in his home, on this episode.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Mahendra is completely different than any of the other guests that have been on the podcast.
How he got into predicting the financial markets.
The story of his astrologer grandfather who lost his eyesight.
How he came out with his first predictions at the age of 20.
How he made a fortune in technology stocks based on his own predictions.
The way he wrote his first book that came out in South Africa.
How he grew up in a home without electricity.
Why he looks at planetary movement, and human behavior patterns.
Why he predicts that the DOW will go to 32,000.
Why he believe in a 30 year cycle.
What he predicts for interest rates in the next few years.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mahendra Sharma on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU72: Adding Value to Your System ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 2of2

12 februari 2015 | 72 min

In the second part of our talk with Mike Shell, we delve into the specifics of his program and why most of his clients have 100% of their investments with his firm. He discusses backtesting, risk management, and the differences between purely systematic systems and systems with a discretionary element. Listen in for an inside look at this fascinating firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How people should look at Mike’s 10 year track record and how his models have evolved over that time.
How much of the strategy is machine run and how much is human run.
What he does when he backtest a system.
How he started out as a chartist in the 1990s.
What is it that he can’t systematize.
The difference between a trader that is purely systematic and one that has a discretionary element, however small.
How his investors use his program.
What his approach to risk management is and how it plays out with his program.
Why he doesn’t take on much short exposure.
What’s the biggest challenge with his business right now.
How to expand the customer base to investment advisors.
What books Mike would recommend.
What he’d do differently if he had to start all over today.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy
Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
Trend Following by Michael Covel

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Shell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU71: Why You Don’t Want Symmetry in Investing ft. Mike Shell of Shell Capital Management – 1of2

9 februari 2015 | 71 min

Most trend following firms have clients that invest somewhere between 2 and 20% of their portfolio with that firm, but Mike Shell’s firm is different. His strategy is tailored to a specific customer, and almost all of his clients have their entire investment portfolios with his firm. We dive into the specifics of Shell Capital Management in this episode, and how Mike grew up in the southern United States with a military background to become the owner of his own firm.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The ways that Mike’s firm is different from other firms.
His upbringing in Tennessee.
How he started Shell Capital in 2004.
The books that influenced him in his trend following education.
What his experience was in the brokerage world.
Why he left the brokerage world and what gave him the courage to become an entrepreneur.
His experience in the military and law enforcement.
What he does when he’s not trading.
Why symmetry is the last thing he wants when it comes to investing.
How his asymmetry term came about.
Why he relishes uncertainty.
How he structures his firm to compete in his industry.
How the firm plans to grow and what they outsource.
The way that people should interpret his track record.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Shell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU70: Market Intervention & The Effect on Trend Following ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group

6 februari 2015 | 37 min

In this year-end review, Marc Malek explains why intervention in the markets affects trend following, but also why trend following strategies are not long volatility strategies. He discusses 2014 from the point of view of his firm, how his program did, and why he is excited about 2015.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How 2014 treated Conquest Capital.
How volatility shows itself in a market like oil.
What strategies performed well and what markets contributed to their success.
How he prepares himself for extreme volatility and how he dealt with the Swiss Franc move.
What intervention does to the markets.
How his firm would plan for our react to a big market change such as the break up of the Euro overnight.
Why people use correlation in the wrong way.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Marc Malek on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU69: Staying Agnostic in Your Allocation ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital

4 februari 2015 | 36 min

This year in review covers how Aspect Capital came out of 2014 with their best year ever as a company, and what they learned from the year. Martin Lueck discusses the events that made 2014 a roller coaster ride, as well as the importance of always staying agnostic in your allocation to different sectors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why 2014 was a roller coaster ride for Aspect Capital.
How 2014 was the best year ever on record for Martin’s firm.
Why CTAs spend most of the time being in a certain level of drawdown and how they have to be psychologically prepared for that.
What markets didn’t perform for his firm.
How Martin reacted to the Swiss Franc move that happened recently.
How conversations with investors changed over the year.
Why educating investors is important.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Hear more of Martin Lueck in these 2 hour-long conversations with him on our podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU68: Keep The Long Term View in Mind When Investing ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management

2 februari 2015 | 28 min

On our next year-in-review, Mike Dever talks about how 2014 evolved for his firm and what they learned from the year. He discusses the changes they made to their program as well as the recent Swiss Franc move and what they learned from that. He also talks about why investors need to keep the long term view in mind when investing, and not re-evaluate the program every time the profits take a dip.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What Mike’s firm does that blends together different strategies in order to diversify a portfolio.
How 2014 was for his firm.
Why they had a great first quarter to 2014 when most CTAs did not.
How the Interest Rate sector and Agriculture sector did well for the program.
Why he saw the Swiss Franc move coming.
How they are in a continual process of learning and subsequently improving their program.
Convergent vs. Divergent environments and what Mike is looking forward to.
How to mitigate a big inflow of investment followed by immediate outflow.
The book that Mike wrote and if the Myths still hold true today.
Why people think about the long term view when they invest, and think about the day-to-day view when they take their money out.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Mike Dever on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU67: Institutional Investors and CTAs: A Look Forward ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management

30 januari 2015 | 36 min

Aref Karim has been on the institutional investing side and the fund manager side for many years, so he has some great insights into how each group thinks and ways they can understand each other better. In this episode, Aref reviews 2014 from the perspective of QCM and discusses the research upgrades that the firm started to their program, and how they dealt with the events of the year, including the recent Swiss Franc move.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About the two programs that his firm trades.
How 2014 went for Aref and his firm.
About the upgrades that the firm started in late 2013.
Where their largest gains came from in 2014.
The opportunities that no one predicted in 2014.
How they dealt with the Swiss Franc move in early 2015.
How institutional investors are looking at the managed futures space as we enter 2015.
What 2015 looks like for his firm.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Aref Karim on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Aref Karim on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU66: Trade Innovation for the future ft. Luc van Hof of Capital Hedge

28 januari 2015 | 39 min

In this year-end review, Luc van Hof discusses what he learned from 2014 and how his firm innovated to create better gains for customers in 2015. He also talks about the Swiss Franc and why he was not trading it when the major move happened in 2015.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The two programs that his firm trades.
What kind of risk both of his programs take on.
What 2014 taught Luc.
What he learned from the Swiss Franc move.
Why they didn’t trade the Swiss Franc…on the day of the big move.
Why he wishes they could have taken a holiday for 6 months after the end of June.
The advantage of trading frequently.
The new innovation that his firm started this year.
His thoughts on volatility.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

You can listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Luc van Hof on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU65: Trend Following Offers Diversification & Risk Mitigation ft. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital

26 januari 2015 | 35 min

Jerry Parker takes us inside 2014 for his firm, and how his models reacted to the Swiss Franc move in January of 2015. He looks at the year and makes a case for trend following as an asset class, as well as highlights what we can learn from a year like 2014.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the year ended up for Jerry’s firm.
The date when his system started getting short Crude Oil.
What they could have done better in 2014.
How he dealt with the Swiss Franc move in January 2015 and how many ATR he made and lost on 2 different CHF positions.
The minor changes they’ve made to increase diversification of their trading systems.
What he wishes for 2015.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Jerry on this podcast here and here.

Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU64: The Trader-less Hedge Fund ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management

23 januari 2015 | 30 min

In this year-end-review, we take a look at how 2014 might be seen many years into the future. Is this when “trader-less” systematic trading caught on? We take you into the workings of a 1-year-old trading technology company, how they succeeded, and where they are going in the future.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

It was their first year of trading under the public eye.
How consistent the statistics were the entire year.
How the backtest matched up with live data in 2014.
What led to their profits and where they lost money.
Why it’s hard to draw conclusions that tie trades back to world events.
How they made a lot of money in the first half of the year when other trend followers were having a difficult time.
About their one-year birthday party.
The improvements they made during the year.
How 2015 will see a “refined” interest in trend following CTAs.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Dave on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU63: Every Assumption Should Be Questioned ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners

22 januari 2015 | 37 min

In this year-end-review, we discuss the year for CTAs and short term traders, as well as the recent collapse of the Euro/Swiss Franc peg and how that affected the models of Quest Partners. Nigol discusses his goals and thoughts for 2015 and reflects on a 2014 that saw his firm start two new strategies and take in new investment.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Quest Partners did in 2014.
Why fixed income was the highest contributor to his gains during the year.
What models did well in 2014.
What the Euro/Swiss Franc collapse can teach us about risk management.
How do we prepare for the unthinkable?
The details of how his models reacted to the Swiss Franc surge.
What the highlights of 2014 were for Nigol.
About the two hedge strategies that they started in 2014.
How investors should insure they don’t repeat 2011 and 2012.
How the “Black Box” of CTAs is not as mysterious as it used to be.
What focus he is taking in 2015.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Nigol on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU62: Why Huge Market Shifts Are Great Reminders ft. Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management

21 januari 2015 | 44 min

In this Year End Review, we discuss the major events and unexpected market trends in 2014 as well as the major Swiss Franc move at the start of 2015. Scot Billington discusses his firm’s performance what they learned from their losses and gains, and how they evolved their models. He also talks about why they were able to keep losses low in 2014.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

An overview of what happened in 2014 and where they made money.
Which factors contributed to profits in 2014 and which factors were the laggards.
Dissecting the market effect of sliding oil prices in 2nd half of 2014 and the “un-pegging” of the Swiss Franc to the Euro.
Evolving perspectives on risk management in response to events of 2014.
Deconstructing the Optimal Program and how to mitigate risk in higher leverage environments.
Actions taken to keep a typical program or an Optimal Program from going to zero.
Changes in client perspectives of a CTA strategy no one predicted would do so well a year ago.
What Scot Billington would wish for in 2015.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes of Scot on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Scot Billington on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU61: CTAs as Portfolio Diversifiers ft Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management

20 januari 2015 | 37 min

Peter Kambolin comes from the short term CTA space, and thus has a different perspective than some of our previous guests for our Year in Review theme this month. He discusses how the events in Crimea and Russia shaped markets, how divergence played a role, and how his firm made small changes to models and even added a new product line in 2014.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the year went for Peter and his two different strategies that his firm trades.
Why it was a challenging year for mean-reversion type strategies.
What markets did well in his portfolio.
What he learned from 2014 and what he would do differently.
The minor adjustment they made to the model in October.
How they adjusted or reacted to world events in 2014.
Why they don’t trade certain markets because most trades are not made by humans.
What would divergence do for his trading models.
How they improved their backtesting in 2014.
How to avoid an inflow of capital that will only leave a year or two later.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Peter on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU60: Understanding The Investor’s Perspective ft. Anders Lindell of IPM

19 januari 2015 | 28 min

How do clients understand a trading strategy so that they stick by the firm in hard times? How do investors make sense of when things go well for the CTA industry. We dive into these questions and more on this next episode, a year-in-review from Anders Lindell of IPM.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why 2014 was a model-proving year for IPM.
How relative bond trading worked so well for his firm.
How the world events of 2014 affect how much risk people take on in general.
Why his models got the Russian Ruble wrong.
Anders’ new role within IPM that was a highlight for him during last year.
How conversations with investors changed over the year.
How Anders thinks about divergence in context with the market’s past history.
How he makes sure that clients know what they are buying into.
Why he wants a normalization from the central banks.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Anders on this podcast here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU59: The Return of Volatility ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital

16 januari 2015 | 34 min

Bastian Bolesta reviews 2014 and details the ups and downs of the year for his firm and the managed futures industry as a whole. In this episode, he discusses the start to the year that he wants to forget, the return of seemingly normal volatility, and the profitable 4th quarter.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the first half of 2014 was a continuation of 2013 for Deep Field Capital.
How the “fellows” in their trading program evolved during the year.
What markets contributed to their growth.
What markets they lost in during 2014.
The automated system they use to choose what markets they trade.
How the markets started to behave in a more “normal” way in the second part of 2014.
What his highlight was for the year.
Why to be careful of accepting assets that are chasing past performance.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

For more of Bastian, listen to 2 hour-long episodes with him here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU58: Having the Discipline to Stay The Course ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management

15 januari 2015 | 36 min

Our next Year-in-Review conversation comes from a manager who considers 2014 to have been a disappointing year for his firm. As a trend follower in the currency markets, Chris has unique insights into what shaped 2014 and how the next couple of years look for his industry. He also shares the importance of having discipline and sticking to your systematic models, which builds investor confidence.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why the year was a disappointment for Insch Capital.
As a currency trader, how he differs from firms that trade different markets.
How the carry trade has all but disappeared.
How he reacted to world events in his business.
Why he is very proud that Insch stayed the course over 2014.
What he thinks of the emerging currencies.
How his investors felt about 2014.
Why he is hopeful for more divergence in the years to come.
How Chris will try and avoid a repeat of the 2008-2009 inflow of capital to the industry.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long conversations with Chris Cruden on Top Traders Unplugged here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU57: Why The Market Environment Looks Exciting For CTAs ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors

14 januari 2015 | 31 min

Our next year-in-review is from a recent guest who discusses the roller coaster feel to 2014, and why it was a good year for the CTA industry. He talks about what his firm learned from 2014 and why he is very excited about this year.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The ups and downs of 2014 from Tim’s perspective.
What markets contributed most for his firm during the year.
What markets he wished he did better in for 2014 and what he learned from those market shifts.
The kinds of strategies they trade and what stood out as working well.
What big worlds events are visualized in the markets and how they affect the strategies.
How Auspice grew in 2014 and what were the drivers of that growth.
What changed in their research process in 2014.
Why Tim is very excited about the market environment in 2015.
Why he wants to make sure investors sign up with his firm for the right reasons, not just chasing returns.
What caused 2014 to be the biggest client acquisition year ever for Auspice Capital.
What Auspice has planned for 2015.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 other hour-long episodes with Tim Pickering here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU56: How to Educate Your Clients on Managed Futures ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital

13 januari 2015 | 27 min

In this 2014 year-in-review, Karsten Shroeder looks at the CTA industry and give some advice on how to look at 2014 with a rational and objective eye. He also has insights into how 2015 will be for the CTA industry and how to educate more clients to the advantages of managed futures.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the year evolved for Amplitude and it’s strategies.
How the CTA industry did in 2014 in Karsten’s opinion.
What models did well last year.
How hard it is to shape models and make guesses based on world events that affect the markets.
What Karsten learned from 2014.
How they have increased their research team.
Why his firm welcomes divergence in the markets.
Why educating clients is very important.
What diversification can do for clients in their portfolios.
Why not to use 2014 as a reference point and say that this markets new returns for CTAs.
What Karsten wishes for 2015.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

You can listen to 2 hour-long podcasts with Karsten here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU55: Talking the Pulse on Long-Term Trend Following ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital

12 januari 2015 | 41 min

For January 2015, we will be revisiting with previous guests on the show to find out how their businesses grew and changed in 2014, and what the year was like overall for their industries.

In our first Year-In-Review episode, Jason Gerlach, the first-ever guest of Top Traders Unplugged, looks at 2014 from a long-term trend following perspective.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why 2014 was a great year for Sunrise Capital.
What markets were responsible for much of their performance in 2014.
The most challenging markets for Sunrise Capital last year.
About their longer-term trend following strategies.
How world events shaped market changes in 2014.
About the oil collapse of 2014.
How volatility returned to markets last year.
How long-term trend following is getting more attention than before.
How to avoid 2015 becoming like 2009 for this industry.
If & When to turn down clients.
How divergence is the one word that may summarize the next few years.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to 2 hour-long episodes with Jason and Niels here and here.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU54: What it Takes to Be an Entrepreneur ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 2of2

29 december 2014 | 64 min

In the second part of our talk with Tim Pickering, we dive into the details of his firm and the challenges that he has to overcome as a business owner and entrepreneur. Tim has some valuable life lessons for managers who are just getting started. He also dives into the different ways investors should carry out their due diligence and why he wanted to become a manager in the first place.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The details of Auspice’s programs and what makes them different from other managers.
What discretionary traders are good at and how Tim captures lessons from them in a systematic model.
How he implements the system in practice.
How Tim measures risk.
How he copes with being in a drawdown.
What he has learned from the drawdowns that Auspice has been through.
What keeps him up at night.
What questions he brainstorms with his research team currently.
How to detect if a model is deteriorating.
How meaningful are back tests?
About the CTA value-added index that Auspice developed.
The difference in investing through a fund, an EFT, or other options.
What investors should be asking when they go through their due diligence with Auspice Capital.
Why he became an entrepreneur.
The books Tim would recommend for traders and managers.
What skill he would pass on to his children if he could choose only one.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Barclay CTA Index
Books by Jack Schwager.
Simon Sinek’s Start with Why.
How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie.
The Prize by Daniel Yergin.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU53: Trend Following vs. Trend Capturing ft. Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors – 1of2

22 december 2014 | 66 min

What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?

Learn answers to these questions and more in this week’s episodes. Niels chats with the founder of a seasoned trend-follower in Canada, who knew he wanted to go into the financial markets since his university days. His story of working for large investment banks to starting his own firm will inspire current managers and hopeful managers alike.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Tim tries to get away from being labelled as one thing or another.
About growing up on a farm in Canada.
How he knew he wanted to be a trader.
How his experience in the energy markets affected the way he ran his business when he started it.
Why discipline is so important for the kind of manager that Tim is.
Why he has stuck with the theme of trading commodities.
What Tim does when he is not running Auspice.
The difference between following a trend and capturing a trend.
How growth is not slow and steady.
An overview of the products that Auspice runs.
Why they launched a beta product after launching their flagship product.
The history of how Tim grew Auspice with his business partner.
How he chose to structure his business.
How a small team can deliver the same value as a larger manager.
What people should notice when looking at the track record of Auspice.
What the Diversified Program does.
How many markets he actually trades.
Why position resizing is important.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Tim Pickering on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU52: Do Amazing Things Just By Showing Up ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 2of2

18 december 2014 | 72 min

Rob Hartman knows that showing up is half the battle when it comes to work in any industry. But his viewpoint as a solo fund manager give us deep insight into the inner-workings of a firm and how it deals with drawdowns, track record, and investors’ questions. In Part 2 of our conversation with Rob, we dive into his models and programs and how each of them works. We also learn about Rob’s background that helps round out this picture of a successful manager.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Hannah Montana has some life lessons to teach.
Rob’s track record and how to read it.
What happened when he changed his strategy.
The details of the programs he runs.
How Vanguard, his flagship product, works.
How he manages his momentum trades, or trend following trades.
Why his thoughts on position sizing have evolved over time.
How he conducts his research and why he doesn’t do any discretionary trading on his models.
The risk that he focuses on as a smaller manager and how he manages that risk.
How he deals with questions about drawdowns from investors.
How Rob copes emotionally when he experiences a drawdown.
What his research process is without a research team.
What is the optimal number of rules for Rob’s models to have.
What questions investors are missing in their due diligence.
Books he would recommend for would-be managers.
The advice he gives to his kids and the lessons he wants to pass on.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Van Tharp – Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom
Rishi Narang – Inside the Black Box: A Simple Guide to Quantitative and High Frequency Trading

Rob also mentions getting inspiration from Kathryn Kaminski, who was our guest on Episode 41 and Episode 42.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU51: Planning for Failure, Not Planning to Fail ft. Rob Hartman of Pacific Capital Advisors – 1of2

15 december 2014 | 73 min

In starting any business, you run into unexpected roadblocks and challenges, and you learn something from each mistake. Our next guest is the founder of a trading firm who has grown his business twice and learned how to overcome the barriers in his way. We can learn a lot from someone who is ready for the unexpected whether it is good or bad.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About his childhood in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania.
Rob’s interest in music and sports.
How his early Rock and Roll career faired and how he went into the financial industry.
How he got hired at IBM.
His years at IBM and the lessons it taught him.
How his fascination for trading started after he began a consulting business.
The tipping point: when he went full-in to the trading business.
How he learned about different strategies and tested them.
When he came upon trend following and what made him stick with it.
What kind of trend following he started with.
How a drawdown taught him he needed to differentiate himself from other managers.
The lessons that his first expansion stage taught him.
The big event that happened after 2010 that changed everything.
About MF Global and the meltdown of that firm.
An overview of the programs that his firm runs.
How he manages investor expectations with a small team.
How he outsources operational roles in order to cut costs and remain a one-man shop.

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob Hartman on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU50: Why Optimism is Important ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 2of2

4 december 2014 | 74 min

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Dave Sanderson. In this episode we explore his trading program in detail, from the markets the firm trades to how they describe their program to investors. We also explore the challenges that he goes through as a business leader, dealing with drawdowns, and why optimism is so important to Dave.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Dave believes that QIM is a unique firm in a reasonably similar category as KFL Capital Management.
How to describe Krystal to investors and why it can be a challenge.
About the length of time it takes for Krystal to compute the data and make a decision.Why the breakthroughs in computational power are supporting KFL Capital Management to make their systems faster each year.
The markets KFL trades.
Expected drawdown and volatility Krystal expects.
How Dave expects to deal with drawdown environments.
Research cycles within KFL Capital Management and the potential for a second Krystal.
About the 99.3% match rate between their live trading and back testing results.
The biggest challenge for KFL Capital Management in today’s market.
About the challenge of attracting AUM in the modern financial landscape.
Asymmetry of agency and understanding how to focus on who you’re talking to.
Regarding the difficulties of explaining machine learning and big data ideas.
Commonalities in the highest level due diligence explorers.
Entrepreneurial perspective, great books and an open minded perspective on failures.
Why optimism is such a powerful force in today’s world.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU49: Will Big Data Enable KFL to Predict the Future? ft. Dave Sanderson of KFL Capital Management – 1of2

1 december 2014 | 75 min

Our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged is the CEO and Co-Founder of KFL. In this episode we explore their trading strategy and uncover the fundamental differences between what they are doing that makes them so different from traditional alternative investment organizations.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Transitioning from commercial litigation to wholesale mutual fund vending
How Dave Sanderson was exposed to alternative investments in the first place
The convincing required to get top big data scientists to work on financial challenges
The comical story of how carefully big data scientist come to conclusions
What Dave Sanderson loves to do when he isn’t working directly on KFL Capital Management
How Dave Sanderson sees the deviation between machine learning and systematic trading
What it means to exist in a deluge of big data
How Dave Sanderson and KFL perceive themselves and the usefulness of labeling
Is machine learning a superior method than conventional approaches to trading?
About the choice of Krystal as a name for their fund
The structuring challenges behind KFL Capital Management and why they are more like a tech firm
The focus for expanding KFL Capital Management
About evolutionary computing and how KFL Capital Management grows with the markets
Is there an environment which would be optimal for Krystal?
Is there an environment which would be severely challenging for Krystal?
The use of non-parametric modeling and why this type of prediction takes KFL out of most conventional finance sector buckets

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Man AHL – Dave Sanderson’s initial exposure to alternative investment.
Thomas K. Hunter – “He’s probably done more tech deals than anybody in Canada.”

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU48: How to Understand a New Manager’s Track Record ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 2of2

27 november 2014 | 80 min

In the second part of our interview with Bastian, we talk about the ins and outs of his trading program and how they came to create the current trading system that they run now. Niels talks with Bastian about drawdowns, risk management, and how investors should read and understand a manager’s track record. Listen in to find out more about Deep Field Capital and learn what it takes to be an successful emerging manager today.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About the 23 potential markets that Bastian trades, and which ones are actually traded.
How he uses a “bus stop” metaphor to explain which markets get picked for trading.
How he views risk and how he deals with risk management.
If there are certain markets that are better performing for his strategies than others.
What kinds of drawdowns he expects his strategy to go through.
The three different types of investors that come in to his fund.
What he learns from drawdowns when they happen.
About the research and futures development that his firm conducts.
What the biggest challenges are today for his business.
What reason investors give for not investing in his fund.
What question investors are not asking in their due diligence.
If he was starting out today, the things he would have done differently.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU47: How to Start Managing Client Capital ft. Bastian Bolesta of Deep Field Capital – 1of2

24 november 2014 | 83 min

The story of Deep Field Capital’s Founder and CEO is an interesting one. Bastian Bolesta met his future partners whilst spending a semester abroad in China before returning to Germany and then moving to Switzerland to join them. The team also moved from the discretionary trading space to a unique way of systematic trading. Deep Field is a relative newcomer to the industry as they don’t have a 20+ year track record, so our conversation has timely insights for those looking to start a firm and begin managing external client capital.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Bastian’s background and how he got interested in finance.
How he grew up in Frankfurt and went to university there.
What he learned from a semester abroad in China and why he returned there after graduating.
How he met his future business parters and started their first business.
How they went from the discretionary trading mindset to a systematic trading firm.
How they came up with their initial trading ideas.
The difference between discretionary and systematic traders.
What he does when he’s not running his business.
Pros and cons of trading external capital and how they started trading other people’s money.
How Bastian looks at the industry as a young and vibrant firm (started after 2008) and offers a different perspective then those who have 20+ years in the industry.
How he built the business from the ground up and how to grow a business smartly.
How to convince investors that you can compete with larger managers.
How regulation affects the business.
The track record of their strategy and how investors should look at it.
The details of their trading program, and why they work in “themes”.
The allocation process for his program.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Bastian mentions this “Pick Me” moment from the movie Shrek.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Bastian Bolesta on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU46: The Benefits of Negative Correlation ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 2of2

20 november 2014 | 84 min

In our continued conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, we discuss risk management, drawdowns, why negative correlation is so important to Roy, and what gets him out of bed every morning (and what keeps him awake at night). Learn more about how to create a balanced and diversified portfolio or what it takes to be a manager.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What has changed by the fact that more and more trading decisions are made by computers instead of humans.
The issue of model decay in Roy’s field.
Why he has constructed his trading program the way that he has.
His ten-step process from idea generation to putting it into the system. The research process laid out.
How his firm does research.
How position sizing plays a role in the short term space.
How he keeps model slippage to a minimum.
Risk management and how Roy deals with it.
When to use discretion to reduce risk.
What he learns from going through a drawdown.
How he keeps investors in the firm during a tough time.
How he personally deals with drawdowns.
How he measures the effectiveness of his research.
If his risk tolerance went down once he had more money under management.
What the biggest challenge is for Roy in the short term management space.
What investors are not asking him during due diligence.
What makes him go into work everyday.
Books that Roy recommends reading for managers and investors.
How the office environment affects how investors perceive a firm.
About downside protection and negative correlation.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Roy mentions the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
He recommends Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Roy highly recommends Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Roy Niederhoffer on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU45: How To Overcome Cognitive Bias in Investing & Trading ft. Roy Niederhoffer of R. G. Niederhoffer Capital Management – 1of2

17 november 2014 | 79 min

Roy Niederhoffer has a fascinating live story that starts with Harvard and neuroscience and continues into his starting a hedge fund in the short-term trading space in 1993. Roy discusses the exciting and bootstrapping beginnings of his firm, the cognitive biases that keep most humans from making good investment decisions, and how his firm stands out from other CTAs. Investors and managers alike will learn a wealth of information from this episode.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Roy got interested in the financial markets from an interest in computers at a young age.
How he started a company that had 30 employees by the end of his high school.
How his brother was an early adopter in the Hedge Fund space.
How he spent his undergraduate years studying neuroscience.
Roy graduated from Harvard and was set to go to Cambridge for neuroscience until he worked for his brother for a summer.
The story of how he started his firm and when he began trading in July 1993.
How the human brain influences behavior and how that translates to trading.
Cognitive biases and how to avoid them in the financial market.
What Roy thinks of trend following and how to explain it to the public.
The other investors he worked at in his first job out of college, that later became famous investors in their own right.
Why Roy’s firm was “employing” a cook and a maid when they started the business in 1993.
How he plays in a symphony and keeps up his pursuit of being a musician while running his firm at the same time.
What he thinks about the future of the CTA industry.
How his model works in an ecosystem of other portfolio management options.
How they distinguish themselves from other CTAs.
An overview of the strategies that his firm does today.
How the infrastructure of the business is setup today and the unique opportunities of the short term space.
What he looks for when adding people to his research team.
The culture that he has created at the firm.
What matters to him when investors look at the track record of his firm.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Roy from his wikipedia article.
Niels mentions that listeners should also check out the Top Traders Unplugged episodes with Kathryn Kaminsky.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Roy Niederhoffer on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

13 november 2014 | 84 min

In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive into discussions on risk management, drawdown, attracting outside capital, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How many currencies Mark trades and if he thinks he will trade more in the future.
About how he diversifies his system.
A case study of the Russian Ruble.
His use of charts when looking at currencies.
A discussion of cognitive biases.
How he compares his system to trend following and how the two models can work in harmony.
How he enters and exists a trade using his system.
Why he is an “every end of two weeks” trader.
How much capital he would like his strategy to manage and how much it can feasibly manage.
How he defines risk and manages risk.
How he deals with drawdowns as a fund manager.
What he learns from going through drawdowns.
How he goes about doing research for his strategy without a research team.
How he sees red flags in his strategy and when he has changed his model.
How Mark goes about marketing and getting interest from investors in his strategy and fund.
How he plans to avoid becoming more risk averse as the firm grows.
What he thinks about the “key man” issue and what he is doing to plan for the eventuality of leaving his business to someone else.
How he decided the location of his business.
What the hardest thing will be for him as he tries to grow the business.
What investors should be asking him that they are not.
What it takes to become a great trader in Mark’s view.
What he learned from the baseball card market in the US during his university years.
What he has learned from past failures.
His favorite books and why he recommends them.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:
Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich Environment
How to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are Overpriced
The Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes Stronger
Books that Mark mentions and recommends:
Winning The Loser’s Game
The Obstacle is The Way
Economics in One Lesson
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark Whitmore on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2

10 november 2014 | 83 min

Our next guest started his firm back in 2012, and we’re talking to him at a special moment in the company’s evolution as it starts to gain outside capital and make its mark in the industry. Listen in to gain insights into how a manager started his firm in the current environment, the inside view on currencies as an asset class, and much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Mark was interested in finance from a very early age and learned from his adoptive parents.
About his time studying macroeconomics in college.
The story of his career and how it took a windy series of turns before heading into the financial market.
His time studying currencies when he was in law school and his time as lawyer.
How he started getting into the financial markets by investing in stocks in the late 90s.
How he quit his job as a lawyer and planned to go into the financial services sector.
His ventures into the currency markets and why he considered them in the first place.
How he started by managing his own money.
What he sees in currencies as an asset class and how he describes that to investors.
How the currency market has changed throughout the years.
How he decided to launch his business in 2012 and how he got organized to take outside capital.
How he built the organization and his business.
What kind of organization he would like to grow into in the future.
Why culture in a small company is a very important issue.
How he looks at track record, being such a young company.
How he created the models he uses for his strategy.
The example of the Euro and what Mark predicts for the currency in 5 years.
His thoughts on the Swiss Franc and the historical context of its value.
The Singapore Dollar and how it is likened to the Swiss Franc.
How many currencies he trades.
How he thinks about diversification.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Mark mentions the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street in this episode.
Mark has authored many white papers on currencies, including:
Currency Investing: An Alpha-Rich Environment
How to Invest When Both Stocks and Bonds are Overpriced
The Case for Currencies as an Asset Class Becomes Stronger

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark Whitmore on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

6 november 2014 | 66 min

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with researcher and co-author of one of the definitive books on trend following. In this conversation, we dive into the the models that she used in writing the book, as well as her thoughts regarding risk management, what you should be asking a manager during due diligence, and what the future holds for the managed futures industry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What Kathryn looks at when evaluating the track records of managers.
Her thoughts on the recent performance of trend followers.
About price range compression.
If she has a favorite statistic to look at when analyzing a manager.
How she and her co-author came up with the trading strategy that they use in their book.
Why the exit from a position is just as important as the entrance.
What trend leakage is.
Her views on how inflation and other environmental changes affects trend following strategies.
About diversification.
About risk management; how Kathryn defines risk and what is important to look at in risk management.
Kathryn explains the topics of hidden and unhidden risk.
What kind of drawdowns should be expected from a trend following model.
A discussion of the drawdowns that trend followers have experience in the last few years.
Seeing drawdowns as a buying opportunity.
How to detect if a manager’s models and system has stopped working.
The biggest challenge for the CTA industry right now.
What she would ask of David Harding.
What questions investors should be asking of managers when doing their due diligence.
What personalities traits a good trend following manager should have.
Her thoughts on regulation, especially for smaller managers.
What her plans are for the future and how she sees the managed futures industry going forward.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.
Is this Time Different? Trend Following and Financial Crisis.
Following the Trend
Outlier
David and Goliath
Lean In
Kathryn’s TED talk on Convergence and Divergence.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kathryn Kaminski on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

3 november 2014 | 68 min

Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a true thought leader in the managed futures industry and you’ll learn a lot from the animated discussion we have regarding the history of trend following and how she co-authored her latest book on the subject.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Kathryn’s upbringing in Nashville, Tennessee.
About her time at MIT where she went for electrical engineering.
How her internship at a bank in France got her on the path to work in the financial industry.
About her teaching financial engineering with Andrew Lo.
Through her teaching and research, she became interested in technical analysis and trend following.
How Kathryn went to the Stockholm School of Economics.
When she left academia and joined RPM in Sweden.
How she met Alex Greyserman and how she came to write a book with him.
The history of trend following as she lays it out in her book.
How trend following at its core is quite simple.
What Kathryn likes to do outside of work.
Her work life balance and her life in Sweden.
Her view on the building blocks of trend following.
Her quest for acceptance of trend following in the academic community.
Where the term Crisis Alpha came from and what it is.
About Convergent and Divergent strategies.
About the Adaptive Market Hypothesis that she writes about in the book.
What the CTA Smile is and what it really means.
What she would look for when building or critiquing a research team.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Kathryn’s book is: Trend Following with Managed Futures.
Learn more about Andrew Lo and MIT.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kathryn Kaminski on Linkedin.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

30 oktober 2014 | 70 min

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs, how models are added or removed, and the importance of risk management. This episode also explores the managed futures industry as a whole and is a must-hear for anyone looking to gain knowledge about this strategy.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Campbell & Company’s trading program.
How they create a trading strategy.
Why they use a hypothesis driven system to add new models to their programs.
About the peer review process they use before adding or subtracting models.
When do you remove a model? How do you know when it isn’t working anymore?
About position sizing and why its important.
How they look at risk through something called Vertical Risk and Horizontal risk.
Campbell’s systematic approach to risk management.
How he deals with drawdowns.
Why he worries about systemic risk and natural disasters.
Why Mike thinks redundancies are so important.
The risk of regulation.
How these strategies tend to perform when interest rates go up.
The trend of the managed futures industry and why it has been dominated by European firms in the past 10 years.
What people need to become a successful manager: humility is “at the top of the list.”
Books that Mike recommends.
What he would do differently if he could talk to his younger self.
The importance of managing work and life balance.
What the future looks like for Campbell & Company.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Baltimore and Johns Hopkins University.
Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack Schwager
Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John Murphy
Trend Following with Managed Futures

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Harris on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

27 oktober 2014 | 70 min

This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with challenges a long the way and how they have succeeded to overcome them, as well as the current state of the company and the systematic models their products are built on. Our guest is current President of the company, Mike Harris, and you’ll hear about how he entered the industry as well as his path to becoming Campbell’s President.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Mike explains what he does.
How his grandfather gave him money to invest in his first stock as a child.
How his interest in the financial markets started young and how he structured his whole education around working in this industry.
About his first job out of college.
About his time as a Futures Broker.
How he joined Campbell & Company in 2000, starting at the European Trading desk.
How he came to be President.
The story of how Keith Campbell started the firm in 1972.
The history of Campbell & Company.
How they dealt with drawdowns in 1994 and ’95.
Why Mike has always been an avid reader.
How Campbell’s 2nd President, Bruce Cleland ran the business for 20 years and how I met him back in 1993.
What the company’s product offering looks like today.
How the company’s 130+ employees are organised.
How they outsource things on the technology side of the business.
What he looks for when adding staff to his research team.
How Mike builds a strong company culture.
How investors should make sense of the track record of Campbell & Co since they have such a long history.
Changes they have made to the trading models after 2007 and 2008.
The ways the company uses long term, medium term, and shorter term systems.
Where the company wants to grow and how big it wants to get.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about a Carry Trades.
Learn more about short-term mean reversion.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Harris on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

9 oktober 2014 | 69 min

In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with risk management, and his advice for would-be fund managers. Investors and managers alike will gain deep knowledge from this episode.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How their model changes are very small and gradual.
What the Diversified Program of Aspect looks like today.
How Martin weights the portfolio between financial markets and commodity markets.
How his model allows them to grow the company.
About foreign exchange markets and liquidity.
The 2008 crisis and how it affected their models.
The real secret behind trend following and how it works.
How they are making the transition to a “box-to-box” execution approach.
How Martin defines risk and risk management.
About model risk.
How their risk team operates.
Why correlations are a crucial to look at.
How drawdowns are different than open-ended risk and how to explain that to investors.
Why succession planning is not an issue for the company right now.
What his biggest challenge is.
The evolution that is going on in the managed futures industry in general.
How small firms are struggling but may see opportunities in the future.
What Martin would ask David Harding if he were interviewing him.
What investors forget or don’t know to ask.
Martin’s advice for managers or would-be managers.
A vacation the Martin took his family on, that turned traumatic for a moment and that British Airways learned a lot from.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Martin suggests books by Antti Ilmanen.
Learn more about David Harding and Winton Capital Management.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

6 oktober 2014 | 70 min

In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s birth to its acquisition by Man Group. We also discuss how he started his next company, Aspect Capital, how he creates his trading models, and how to build and run a successful multi-billion trend-following firm. This episode is full of insights and stories that you won’t hear elsewhere.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Quantitative Investment research.
About Martin’s background in physics.
Martin’s time at his first company, AHL and how it had a profound effect on the whole managed futures industry.
How Martin met his future AHL co-founders at university.
Why AHL was a happy accident.
How he met his friend Michael Adam and went to work for his dad after studying in Oxford.
Martin started working for Michael’s dad as well, investigate many trading models and distilling them into key concepts.
In 1987 they founded AHL with David Harding after leaving Michael’s father’s business.
They started with $100k of investor money that bridged their split from the family business.
About MINT, a pioneering systematic CTA in the early 80s.
How they tried to articulate their trading patterns in the form of a computer trading model.
What the initial AHL model looked like back then.
How they over optimized in the beginning and had to learn things as they went along.
How AHL got involved with Man Group.
The skills that each of the 3 Founders brought to the table.
In 1989 Man Group took a stake in AHL.
How the Man buy changed their business.
What happened after Man’s IPO.
How Michael, David, and Martin went their own ways after they left AHL.
How Martin started Aspect Capital with Anthony Todd, Eugine Lambert and Michael Adam.
Why he parted ways with his other AHL founders initially and did not start AHL 2.0.
What he does when he is not working.
Aspect was founded on bringing managed futures to the institutional side of things.
What it looks like running 100-person+ organization.
What he looks for when adding new researchers and staff to his team.
The lessons he has learned and the mistakes he’s made in building a culture of an organization.
About their track record and how it should be viewed.
Martin’s persistence in using trend following models.
How his models have changed and how he has dealt with risk management over the years.
What it means to change his models from a binary implementation to an analog implementation.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about AHL.
Find out more about the MAN group.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Aspect Capital on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU36: A Look inside a Currency Trading Firm ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 2of2

2 oktober 2014 | 66 min

In Part 2 of our conversation with the CEO of Insch Capital Management, we talk about how the firm’s trading models work and how they were built. We discuss how Insch deals with drawdowns, increased regulation, and marketing. This is a truly in-depth episode into the mind of a hedge fund Founder and the inner workings of an Alternative investment firm.

Welcome to the second part of our conversation with Chris Cruden.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Indicators that are more robust than others.
Chris’ views on stop losses.
How his firm deals with risk and how he uses Index Risk.
How correlations play a part in his models.
About risk equivalency.
how he deals with drawdowns.
Why a sense of humor is important in this business, especially during drawdowns.
How investors don’t share the same confidence in the model as managers and how managers can better share that confidence.
How simple his system really is.
Why you must have discipline. Many trend followers are making all-time highs but many people have announced the death of trend following time and time again.
What the “black swan” event and the “gray swan” event would be for Chris’ business.
The two kinds of research that his firm does.
Why his team looks at emerging currencies in their research even though they do not trade them.
What he is looking for in terms of red flags during his research that suggest models need to be tweaked.
How he tries to stand out from the crowd in order to attract investors.
Why he is based in Lugano, Switzerland.
What Chris would ask David Harding if he was doing the interviewing instead of being interviewed.
What investors forget to ask him.
Why it’s a good idea to ask if you can try a dummy account with a new investment manager to see how it works.
How he deals with the difficulties of regulation.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU35: The Advantages of Being a Systematic Trader ft. Chris Cruden of Insch Capital Management – 1of2

29 september 2014 | 70 min

Our next guest was a British Army Officer and moved to South Africa before finding a career in the financial markets. He is now the CEO of his Managed Futures firm and has worked with some of the industry’s most influential companies and people, including Dean Witter and AHL. The story of his career’s beginnings and the lessons he used to become a systematic trend follower are unique and insightful. You’re sure to learn a lot from this episode.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Chris came to work with Dean Witter, one of the leading players in the industry back in the 1980’s & 90’s.
About his days working for AHL in the early 90’s.
How his career started off as a British Army officer.
His time in Africa after leaving the army – finding himself in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe).
About his first job at Syfrets Trust bank in South Africa as a Gold analyst.
How he came to do business with Dean Witter Reynolds and after a few years why they hired him.
After the 1988 crash he found himself back in London and joined AHL.
In 1993 he went back to New York joined with Robert M Tamiso, a mentor to him.
Why he looked for a market that was not overcrowded and easily spooked, which was the inter-bank foreign exchange market.
What AHL was doing in the beginning of the company.
Why he started trading currencies early on.
How Bob Tamiso was successful and the way he carried himself that made him successful.
Why Bob Tamiso’s best advice was to always “show up”.
About Chris’ golf playing and his ties to Scotland.
His routine at work and why being a systematic trader makes him boring and bad at marketing, but helps him sleep at night knowing they are going to “show up” the next day.
About Chris’ goal with his work and why he is happy with the size of his firm and why growth is not the prime focus.
How he has such low staff turnover and why he likes to work with young people who have never worked anywhere else in the financial world.
What matters when discussing a firm’s track record and how his programs are setup.
The building blocks of their trading program and how the money they’ve made has historically come mainly from interest rate differentials.
What the environment has been like for a currency program in the last 5 years.
Why he believes the current intervention by The Fed is not so substantially different that his model won’t be able to see good returns in the future
How he designed his program and what its objective is.
What currencies he trades and how he trades them.
Why volatility has been so low but why he sees that it is coming back and why it’s a good thing for his models.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about Dean Witter.
Get more information on AHL.
For historical background, see this article on Rhodesia.
Learn more about Lugano, the city where Insch is located.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Chris Cruden on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU34: The Art of Risk Management ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 2of2

25 september 2014 | 82 min

In the second part of our interview with hedge fund founder Luc Van Hof, we dive into the philosophy and creation behind his trading models. We also discuss why he is a risk averse person, what hobbies help him stay focused at work, and what investors and fund managers can do to grow their business and trade smarter.

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Luc Van Hof.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How to avoid model decay and how to avoid the risk when the model may stop working in the future.
How to diversify your types of models – dynamic filtering that takes place. Automatic de-leveraging when a certain market goes down.
How Luc chooses his models and why he does:
Short term trend following
Short term mean reversion
What concepts for his models repeat themselves over and over again, pattern recognition.
About volatility risk premium strategies.
How he tests his models that have so many moving parts in short timeframes.
His views on position sizing.
What investors should look at in terms of risk management
Maximum Exposure for a trade – determines the maximum risk that a trade can generate for the total of the portfolio.
How Luc deals with drawdowns.
Why he is a risk averse person.
Why he is still researching other trading ideas when he thinks he’s found a way that mitigates risk effectively.
How he gets his ideas from math puzzles, reading about geometry and logic.
Why investors should look at the predictability of returns and how to convince investors what and how you are going to trade is something that is going to work.
Why discipline is the main characteristic that people need to be a successful fund manager.
The books that he recommends for managers starting out wanting to be successful.
How his hobbies such as nature, reading, and music help to keep him balanced in a busy financial world.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU33: Options Trading: A Dangerous Animal? ft. Luc Van Hof of Capital Hedge – 1of2

22 september 2014 | 79 min

Our next guest worked for the European Commission before starting his own firm. In an unusual career twist, he sold his company to a larger firm only to buy it back from them a few years later and had to start from scratch. Learn about his aversion to risk, his short term trading strategies, and his interesting past as one of the fastest readers in the world.

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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Luc’s time working for the treasuring of the European Commission starting in 1985.
How he learned about Options trading before many people were doing.
About his years working for Bankers Trust in London and Morgan Stanley as a trader and how those experiences influenced his career later.
How he started Analytic Investment Management (AIM), doing options trading.
How he acquired his first clients.
Why he got started trading currencies.
About the early days of trading and the physically demanding work before computers took over.
How his attendance at conferences, getting invited to speak on panels, and other speaking engagement led to the sale of his company.
About the selling of AIM to Trobico in 2006 and why trobico bought his firm.
How he ended up buying his company back from Trobico in 2010 after management changes caused them to shut down everything in the alternative investment space.
About the different products that Capital Hedge provides.
How he had to start from scratch, getting all new investments after buying his firm back.
Where he is now – advising $200 Million US dollars, mainly in his DPI program.
How he is one of the fasted readers in the world, and how he learned to speed-read from a class he took in the Netherlands.
How he convinces institutional investors that a 2-3 person company is enough to manage the investments they have, and how technology has changed the game from needing a staff of 25 to needing just 2.
How small managers need to describe what they do, and why they might not want a multibillion-under-management hedge fund.
How investors should look at a track record of a firm and why that doesn’t necessarily mean good returns in the future.
Why investors should see the latest test of what the firm is currently running rather than worry too much about the historic model results.
How Luc trades and develops his systems, and how he looks for patters in the market.
How to avoid model decay and avoid the risk when the model will stop working in the future.

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about the European Commission.
More about Bankers Trust.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Luc Van Hof on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU32: The Most Misunderstood Stats That You Can Use ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 2of2

18 september 2014 | 66 min

In the second part of our conversation with Marc Malek, we explore the strategies that he uses to build his models and how he explains them in simple terms. We go in depth about drawdowns and what investors should know about them. We also discuss what keeps Marc inspired, what he does for fun, and how he couldn’t imagine having any other job.

Welcome back to Part 2 of our conversation with Marc Malek.

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About the four strategies inside Conquest Capital’s Macro program.
How the technological revolution has changed the market and trend following, now that everyone gets the same information at the same time.
Marc’s approach to building trading models.
Defining risk in terms of upside deviation vs. downside deviation in the portfolio.
Why correlation is one of the most misunderstood stats that you can use.

How Marc deals with drawdowns and why he thinks nothing new is happening now that did not happen before.

His view on backtesting.

The challenges hedge fund owners face in the current business climate and why Marc is lucky to have investors that have stuck by him.

Why Marc is motivated to keep pushing through this period and why he loves what he does.

The story of how Conquest Capital got its first investor, and how in the early days investors cared more about managers and interacting with them personally.

Marc’s biggest failures, and how he overcame them.

The hobbies Marc has and why he likes seemingly dangerous sports.

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about Backtesting.

Learn about Downside Deviation.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.

IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

TTU31: Why Investors Should Not be Worried ft. Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Group – 1of2

15 september 2014 | 73 min

This guest had a different path that eventually led to owning a hedgefund in New York. Marc Malek got a grant from NASA to study how different armored tank positions would lead to winning results on the battlefield. Traveling to Wisconsin to begin his research, his advisor steered him to do a similar project on stocks, bonds, and equities instead. He went on to work for UBS and finally founded his own firm, Conquest Capital Group. His story will fascinate and inspire you.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The story of how Marc became interested in the financial markets after a university project, a bit unexpectedly.
About Marc’s upbringing in Beirut, Lebanon.
How his studies at Caltech in neural networks and decision support systems eventually led him to the stock market.
About his grant from NASA to research the position of tanks.
His job offer from Oracle that he turned down.
About his first job out of university at Salomon Brothers and why he left after one year.
How Marc got hired at UBS and moved to Europe and then Asia during his time with the company.
Marc’s departure from UBS and how he started Conquest Capital Group.
How trader’s thought processes are turned into trading models.
Why models are not black boxes and why investors should not be worried.
The history of trend following and the old systematic approach.
How markets move for alpha and beta reasons.
About “turtle strategies” vs “trend following 2.0”.
How Marc’s strategies and models have evolved over time.
About his product Conquest Macro and the two mandates that the product has.
How his product makes the bulk of its return during periods of risk aversion and high volatility.
How his firm developed a risk index in a time before anyone was doing them.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

See Episodes 13 and 14 for more discussion on “Turtle Strategies”.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Marc Malek on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU30: Don’t Tweak Your Models! ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 2of2

11 september 2014 | 69 min

Welcome back to the second part of our discussion with Aref Karim. In this episode, Aref discusses his firm’s strategies and the broader philosophies that drives what he does. He also talks about market volatility, the need to innovate while keeping models intact, his perspective on drawdowns, and what investors should be asking their managers. You’ll learn something about the art galleries and music that fuels his inspiration, and what he thinks it takes to become a successful hedge fund manager.

You will be amazed by the candid truthfulness of Aref at the end of the episode as he speaks about his personal life and the current state of his business. Thanks for listening to Part 2 of the conversation, I hope you enjoy it.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

What strategies his firm uses regarding commodities and currencies.
How Aref explains his investment strategy in a concise and understandable way.
Why volatility is an important source of information when making investment decisions.
How to make the best of the current market environment and innovate.
Why his firm evolves their model on a macro level and does not change the model every time the markets change.
How QCM manages risk.
Aref’s perspective on drawdowns and how to make investors comfortable with drawdowns and see them as an opportunity.
How investors should be evaluating the track records of managers given that some firms’ models have changed over time.
How growth and technology have effected the relationship managers have with potential investors and why it is still best to meet the manager in person.
When investors ask questions of potential managers, the economic alignment question often gets left out.
What it takes to be a successful fund manager: treating it like a business even if you are investing for yourself.
Aref’s personal appreciation for the arts, art galleries, opera, and jazz. How it inspires him.
How Aref sees the current state of QCM and why he believes in its future.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about Long Volatility vs Short Volatility, mentioned as “Long Vol” by Aref in the episode.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow QCM on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU29: How the largest investor in Hedge Funds got Started ft. Aref Karim of Quality Capital Management – 1of2

8 september 2014 | 70 min

How do you transition from working alongside the capital management industry to starting your own hedge fund? Our next guest grew up in Bangladesh but fled to London during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. He worked as an accountant and then went on to join the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) where he pioneered the organization’s futures investment department. Learn about his personal setbacks and successes, his innovative investment strategies, and how he founded Quality Capital Management in the UK.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Aref’s childhood in Bangladesh.
How his father wanted all 10 of his children to attend university and instilled in them the belief system that made them successful.
Why Aref decided to study English and Literature even though his background was in the sciences.
The story of Aref’s escape to the United Kingdom because of war and social upheaval in Bangladesh.
How he went from being an accountant in England to working for the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, ADIA.
Aref’s perspective on the history of the hedge fund industry and the alternative investment industry.
About the beginnings of ADIA’s futures department that Aref helped to start.
The early days of the futures industry and Aref’s perspective on trend-following.
How he overcame personal setbacks when his wife unexpectedly passed away, leaving him with three young children.
About Aref’s return to the UK and his decision to start his own CTA and start trading in futures.
About the genesis of Quality Capital Management.
How Aref’s investment strategy evolved and the specifics of his current trading strategy.
How he measures the “Flow” of the market.
Why his strategy looks at changes in volatility and doesn’t care whether it is a bond or an equity.
How QCM went from using a few indicators to no indicators at all.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about Aref Karim on his Wikipedia page.
Learn about the Bangladesh Liberation War that displaced Aref from his country of birth to the UK.
Learn more about the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow QCM on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU28: How to Bridge the Gap Between Philosophy & Rules ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 2of2

4 september 2014 | 86 min

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scott Foster, President and Founder of Dominion Capital Management.

In this episode, we learn the philosophical rules that drive his firm, and how he bridges the gap between the philosophy behind his decisions and the models he creates. We discuss the increased governmental involvement in the markets and the adjustments that Scott has had to make to adapt to new signals. Finally, we learn the personal habits that help Scott succeed. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scott Foster.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why Scott does not worry about model decay due to the principals with which he runs his firm.
How to bridge the gap between philosophy and rules.
How he created the Sapphire program, his firm’s signature service, and what it took to create it.
How increased government involvement in the markets has changed his system and made him adapt to new signals in the markets.
Why and how political feedback and involvement are affecting the markets and short term trading.
How his firm is able to so expertly predict to potential customers their drawdowns and how they contain them.
That investors spend too much time dissecting the drawdowns and not enough time looking at why and how they made money.
The principals of behavior finance and the underlying philosophical principals such as self attribution bias and loss aversion.
How alone time and contemplation have led to 80% of Scott’s best trading ideas.
The hardest part of being the President of a fund and why it is not the trading.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn more about illusory superiority, the bias that the Lake Wobegon effect is name after, or Lake Wobegon itself, a fictional town in Minnesota.
Learn more about Mean Reversion, which Scott’s firm looks at closely in the models they use.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Scott Foster on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU27: Magician-turned Trader: “Reality Doesn’t Matter” ft. Scott Foster of Dominion Capital Management – 1of2

1 september 2014 | 83 min

Our next guest was a philosophy major and a magician before he ever considered trading in the stock market. In Part 1 of our talk, he describes how philosophy and psychology determine his firm’s decisions and the story of how he started trading in a small town in Pennsylvania.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

On the 20th Anniversary of Scott’s firm, he looks back on how it all started.
Scott’s life as a magician and how the principals of magic influences his perspective on trading and the market.
How he became a philosophy major and how he applies philosophy to trading and everything his firm does.
How he started trading in the market, getting a group of his college friends to take out cash advances on their credit cards and investing it.
The Austrian perspective on economics that his college was well known for.
How he educated himself in futures trading and invested long before he ever met another trader.
Scott’s initial lessons learned from trading in the stock market; how he lost almost all of his capital in one day and had the first sleepless night of his life.
How he made the mistake of investing in coffee and cocoa in the late 1980s and what he learned from that experience.
How he started his first firm in 1989.
How Scott traded while living in rural Western Pennsylvania.
How a philosophy major with no connections to the financial world used his network to find a mentor.
The story of Scott becoming a principal at one of the biggest short-term CTAs in the world.
The story of Dominion Capital Management, which he started in 1994 by moving to Chicago.
Why he is based in Traverse City, Michigan.
How his firm is a bit different and why they don’t have any mathematicians or scientists on their team.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about the Square of Opposition that Scott explains in the episode.
In Scott’s first job at a firm, the company hired people belonging to Mensa.
Learn about how trading was conducted and firms operated before the use of personal computers and the Internet. Scott’s firm had a VAX computer.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Scott Foster on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU26: The Most Repeatable Trading Method Ever Invented ft. Scot Billington – 2of2

28 augusti 2014 | 69 min

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Scot Billington of Covenant Capital Management.

In this episode, Scot delves into the practice of trend following and why it is a great model to follow. He also discusses tips for beginning traders and investors, and advice for those who wants to start a firm. Thank you for listening to Part 2 of our conversation with Scot Billington.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The story of Scot’s childhood obsession with mathematically based, but unknown future outcomes.
The discipline required to follow a mathematical model.
The advantages of trend-following and why the media reports that “Trend Following is Dead” every few years.
Scot’s philosophy on position sizing.
How every sector in the market is highly correlated.
Getting comfortable with taking risks: they exist and it is impossible to avoid them.
The Barbell strategy: have very little money at risk, but the money that is at risk is in the most aggressive things that it can be.
The biggest mistake that allocators make.
How Scot conducts research for Covenant Capital.
Why he is based in Nashville and how he overcomes the challenge of asking investors to buy into the long time-frame.
Finding your niche as a boutique firm.
Advice for managers wanting to start firms today.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Scot mentions how the media often announces the death of trend following. Here’s an article on the subject from Futures Magazine.
Learn about the Barbell Trading Strategy.
See 10 Fallacies when Selecting CTAs.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU25: Why a Mechanical, Long-Term Trend Approach is Best ft. Scot Billington – 1of2

25 augusti 2014 | 83 min

Our next guest takes a mechanical, long-term trend approach to trading to a new level, and you’ll find out why he thinks it is the better option in this episode. He started Covenant Capital with his business partner in 1999 and has grown it into a profitable boutique firm. But in early 2002 after they ended the previous year down 20%, they really had to grind it out and stick to their guns which ultimately paid off in a big way.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Scot started his firm, doing the testing by hand.
The difference between a discretionary model and a mechanical model and why Scot chose a mechanical one.
How he met his business partner Brince Wilford and started with 3 accounts in 1999.
How narrative bias can affect a trader’s decisions.
How the firm got through a year that ended with them down 20%.
What made Scot believe in his model and stick to his guns.
The offerings that the firm currently has, including the differences in the trading models.
The pitfalls of investing in shorter term models and not allowing managers to see a full cycles with markets.
Why most allocators and investors are chasing 24-month returns on stocks and why that may not be the right approach.
About different types of CTA firms, including boutiques, battleships, emerging, and experimental.
What to look for in a CTA.
How to get investors to share the long-term horizon with his firm when certain markets do very well in the short term.

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

An article on Covenant and Scot Billington in Futures Magazine.
Check out Discretionary vs System Trading.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU24: What it Takes to be a Great Hedge Fund Manager ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 2of2

21 augusti 2014 | 74 min

Welcome back to the second part of our interview.

In this episode we dive into the negative effect of greed on the market. Anders Lindell again shows his depth of knowledge as he elaborates on the nature of irrationality though the ages and how our markets today, really are rather stretched. This is a powerful episode, I really do hope you will enjoy it.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the IPM model profited by choosing to position against the carry frenzy in Japanese Yen during late 2008
Risk factor analysis when selecting model attributes
What the more reliable indicator in the global economy is
How their trading model works on overall, daily basis
“Stop-Loss” Positioning in the IPM strategy
Where IPM identifies value traps and optimizes their exposure to it
The average length of trades at IPM
What drives the relationships that Anders explores to build models around
If Correlations structure matters when IPM decides on risk overlay to make market decisions
Why timing can be the largest challenge for their strategy
How Anders defines risk and how IPM controls the model and expected risk
The biggest fear Anders have in regards to unexpected market effects
What is expected in regards to drawdowns in the IPM Global Macro Strategy
How to convey the needed confidence to investors during drawdowns
Risk Management/Risk Control model rebuilding
How Anders Lindell identifies research processes which will over engineer and cause return issues
Succession planning as Anders sees it for IPM – Perception and Vision
The challenges for IPM and how overcoming them has helped to make them stronger
What Anders would suggest for investors to focus on
What it takes to be a great hedge fund manager in today’s economy

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU23: Former CEO Reveals How to Thrive in a Challenging Market ft. Anders Lindell of IPM – 1of2

18 augusti 2014 | 73 min

Our next guest turned a challenging market into an opportunity to transform his strategy and build something substantial.

Welcome back to another episode of Top Traders Unplugged. Today we have the former CEO, now Chairman of Informed Portfolio Management on to discuss the road to formation of his firm, their Systematic Global Macro strategy, their unique approach to investor interaction and much much more.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The relevance of controlling production at paper and pulp mills while Anders was a developing man
His history during his early days at JP bank as an analyst
The impact of the shifts in the fixed income markets of the early 1990’s which inspired a new strategy
The strategic focus that was the starting point for the formation of IPM
Who Anders learned from early on and who helped him cultivate a career in the hedge fund industry
How to find and retain talent and the entrepreneurial spirit drives in house management decisions
How IPM as an organizations manages the in house operations
How Anders hopes to see their potential realized in terms of double or tripling their AUM for future markets
What Anders looks for when spotting talent for new team members
Ideas for incentivizing team members to appreciate their careers
The long term view of IPM’s track record and how to evaluate it
More on the objective of the strategy of IPM and the environment in which it’s been designed to work well
Why the opportunities and volatility in emerging market equity trades is decompressing globally
The meaning of global macro and how they structured all the information into a systematic trading approach
How the IPM model differentiates it’s self from discretionary trading models and how they run them
The role of fundamental information in identifying market strategies

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Anders Lindell on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU22: The Most Important Question Investors Should be Asking ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 2of2

14 augusti 2014 | 73 min

Did you know that a meditation practice can help you be a better investor?

In this episode we discuss our common lessons that we ask all Top Traders, but we dive deep into why Nigol thinks differently about CTA issues. Growing up in war-torn Lebanon shifts the filters he uses to see the markets. We all have filters but in this episode you will learn what perspective he takes on the markets that may, or may not, support his market philosophy.

Welcome back to the second half of our interview with Nigol Koulajian.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How growing up in war torn Lebanon influences the way Nigol filters market decisions
The challenging nature of a market injected with federal liquidity
Nigol’s strategies for selecting position sizing
Drawdown expectations of Quest Partners
How Quest works to maintain a balance in the working environment and how busy the team stays
How Nigol manages emotional turmoil of drawdowns and how he projects this calmness upon his investors
The few things that Nigol predicts would shake their strategy
How to listen to clients and use their advice in a way that serves them, even if you don’t implement exactly what they’re saying
Why mathematician optimization can adversely effect the strength of your CTA strategy
How Nigol expects to know if a model is working or not
The importance of using math as little as possible despite the systematic approach to trading
A fascinating perspective on why the CTA industry AUM has shifted to Europe
The most important question investors should be asking: “How to price tail risk.”
What it takes to build a firm and become the next Quest
Learn all about Nigol’s daily meditation practice which he credits as his top personal attribute to becoming a great trader
The most challenging thing about being a CTA for Nigol (A: Fishing in a very small pond)
Nigol’s biggest failure which occurred in 2009

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU21: Building a Computer That Makes Money? ft. Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners – 1of2

11 augusti 2014 | 69 min

Want to build a computer that makes money?

Quest Partners LLC has a long, robust track record with their systematic trading approach.

They utilize a different strategies from many of their peers and have diversified their product range to include equity programs both hedge and long only.

At the core of it all is their philosophy on focusing on what investors need. They provide solutions for investors rather than a purist strategy.

Leading the way is our next guest on Top Traders Unplugged, Nigol Koulajian.

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How growing up Armenian provides a filter for the way Nigol perceives the markets
His experience at Anderson Consulting and how he ended up working with Solomon Brothers by chance
Why Nigol spend time at Colombia Business School programming and building models
What Nigol thinks of Value at Risk
How Nigol found himself as a risk arbitrage manager despite his passion for CTA strategies
How Nigol navigated beneficial detours before finally partnering to co-found Enterprise Asset Management in 1994
About the founding and growth of Quest Partners from inceptions in 2001 to +760$ million in 2014
The dangers of an increased correlation between alternative strategies designed to protect against trouble in traditional investment and the traditional asset classes themselves
Learn about self reinforcing feedback loop and how managers of growing AUM are forced to allocate to factors that are doing well (but perhaps doing well by chance)
About the tight, automated business infrastructure of Quest Financial Partners
About the shift in volatility expansion and how to measure it

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Investors Business Daily – The finance newspaper which inspired Nigol in the early days
3 Research Pieces from Quest that specifically examine factor drifts that could effect the returns of CTAs
Learn about Sharpe Ratio
A specific trading model that trades the S&P and 30Y Bonds if it’s down 3 days in a row, with a stop-loss and profit target (Full testing and code in the link).
BTOP50 – the index that seeks to replicate the overall composition of the managed futures industry with regard to trading style and overall market exposure
Learn about David Harding, one of the largest alternative investment managers in the world
Read this interesting article about transcendental meditation and Nigol
Nigol’s Foundation to promote studies on eastern religious philosophies and Yoga

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

Follow Nigol Koulajian on Linkedin.

IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

TTU20: How to Identify Trades No One Else is Looking For ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 2of2

7 augusti 2014 | 61 min

How would it feel to identify trades no one else you know is looking for?

Our guest is back and this interview is all about carry trades, mean reverting environments, merger arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, tail hedges and how to become the best trader possible. It’s quite likely there is something in this interview which will help propel you forward as a hedge fund manager or in your research of managers.

Welcome back to the second part of our interview with Chief Excutive Officer of Future Value Capital, Roman Lutz.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Simple Models used by Future Value Capital to implement trend following
How they utilize carry trades
The third area of models: Tail Hedges
Learn about how to carry potentially large value variance swaps while keeping the premium for holding them down
Where the variance exchange swaps derive from whether from OTC with counterparts or constructed using exchange listed products
Learn about Credit Support Annex (CSA)
Risk management procedures at Future Value Capital
The purpose for tactical asset allocation meetings and the decisions that are made
The common performance drivers and if there is a dominant part of the portfolio that is responsible for the performance
How Roman translates the complex trading strategy of Future Value Capital to investors
How Future Value Capital implements trades and why they consider it a key strength of their program
How much AUM would be optimal running the program or if the potential is unlimited
How to create certainty around the risk Future Value Capital holds and how they define that risk
What Roman Lutz considers to be one of the riskiest thing that could happen in the financial system
What to expect in terms of returns and drawdown when investing in Future Value Capital
How to realize when a model is no longer working
Personal habits that contribute to Roman’s success in managing a hedge fund

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Roman Lutz on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU19: How to Take the Emotions out of Investment Decisions ft. Roman Lutz of Future Value Capital – 1of2

4 augusti 2014 | 63 min

Can you implement well established hedge fund strategies in a systematic way?

Future Value Capital has been researching this for years, before they started trading. They are unique because of how they simplify and automate complex Risk Premia.

But we aren’t the best at explaining their systems. Roman Lutz, the Chief Financial Officer of Future Value Capital will explain it all in this interview.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About Merger Arbitrage and How investors can Profit
What criteria they look for in mergers, such as Market Cap, Deal Size, Liquidity etc.
What currency markets Future Value Capital enters
The app. 15 strategies they use and how many sub strategies they may have
The origin stories of where the Future Value Capital strategy derived from.
Understanding the typical way to build a derivative business
Why the average correlation of a hedge fund with equities has shifted from 0.6 to 0.9 from the 1990’s to today.
How Scottish Whiskey tasting can kickstart long term business relationships
Addressing the “Black Box” label that many systematic programs has
What environment Future Value Capital’s systems are best suited to operate within
The business structure of Future Venture Capital and the alliance with Trium Capital
About the post Madoff and additional regulatory environment investors are operating in
How Roman Lutz developed the shared business management and split the overhead cost with other emerging fund managers
The negative side effects of sharing hedge fund management business practices with other firms
A ballpark figure for the cost of being part of the Trium Manager Alliance and get the services required to be able to operate as a regulated and well run firm
How Roman and partners develop new plans in regards to where the economy is going and how to develop plans to manage funds going forward
How merger arbitrage and volatility arbitrage connect implied and realized volatility
How to buy realized volatility
When to deploy and when not to deploy the realized volatility trades (when volatility starts to trend)
Main categories from a strategy point of view – Trend Following for example
How Future Value Capital uses trend following

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Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Listen to the past episode with Marty Bergen from Dunn Capital mentioned in regards to the higher correlation between traditional alternative investment space and the traditional assets.

Lars Jaeger owner of Alternative Beta Partners – Wrote extensively about the lack of alpha to people hunting it. 4x more assets are looking for alpha than alpha is available in the market.

Listen to our previous guest Karsten Schroeder from Amplitude Capital on the value of systematic trading vs. discretionary

Learn more about the determining implied market volatility with VIX

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Roman Lutz on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU18: Estimating & Predicting Black Swans ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 2of2

31 juli 2014 | 61 min

Imagine if your assets under management went from $721 million to $50 million….

Would you have the courage to stick with your system?

Our next guest was able to weather that storm and come out even stronger. In fact, he gives credit to the fall in assets because it was an important component to improving their processes and efficiency today.

We’re excite to share with you, the second part of my interview with CEO of Systematic Alpha Management, Peter Kambolin.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How many markets Peter trades and the number of different spreads
The three points during a day in which volatility is elevated
What triggers an exit from a trade when profit levels haven’t been reached
How Systematic Alpha Management makes decisions relating to sizing market positions
The number of daily trades Systematic Alpha implements
How much of the P/L comes from the hedge component of spread decisions
What kind of Risk Budgets that Systematic Alpha Management runs
How to drawdown profile has changed over the last few years
Estimating and predicting Black Swan events
How Peter personally balances the challenging feelings of managing a portfolio in drawdown
Exploring mean reversion and how the hedge ratios change daily
On the value of being located in the heart of New York
The biggest challenge for Peter in running Systematic Alpha Management
Peter’s opinion on why success in the CTA industry has shifted from the United States of America to Europe
Why individuality is critical in success in the CTA industry
Peter Kambilin’s biggest failure and what he learned from it
Some fun facts about Peter that you probably would never have guessed

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU17: Start Your Own Firm at 21 Years of Age? Russian CEO Tells All ft. Peter Kambolin of Systematic Alpha Management – 1of2

28 juli 2014 | 65 min

Peter Kambolin is the common sense CEO behind Systematic Alpha Management, an Award Winning CTA Firm which has come through the tremendous market forces of the past 10 years. Their staying power is a testament to their success as conscious, ruled based traders.

This episode is about his hero’s journey from immigrant origins in Moscow to founding a lasting, top financial service company headquartered in New York City.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About the effect of the 2004 internet bubble and how Systematic Alpha created a “market neutral” CTA strategy in response
What it’s like to win global CTA awards yet still have to hunt new business due to capital flows towards large investment firms
Peter’s story of moving from Moscow to New York and how he entered the finance industry
The surprising story of how Peter was inspired to start his own firm at 21 years of age
How Peter and Alexi work together to maximize each others strengths, and control for each-other’s weaknesses
About the transition from long term to short term CTA strategies
Why living in New York yet playing in Miami helps stoke Peter’s creativity
The story of the dramatic period of March-August 2011 in which they experienced a drawdown that let to a drop in AuM from 721 million to 50 million due to investor redemptions.
The effects of the coordination of global economic decisions by government on volatility and it’s effect on the overall environment for Systematic Alpha Management’s CTA programs.
Why Peter considers Systematic Alpha to be a stronger firm after the steep drop in AUM they experienced in 2011.
Where Systematic Alpha’s value proposition is and the importance of a CTA position in diversification
How to get out of losing trades when liquidity is a problem

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Peter Kambolin on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU16: You Can’t Learn This In A Book! ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 2of2

24 juli 2014 | 45 min

Welcome back to Top Traders Unplugged. On this episode Karsten and I discuss the systems and implementation that has led Amplitude to such remarkable success. As the interview comes to a close, we learn about Karsten’s philosophy of success and entrepreneurship. Despite being based outside the global financial hubs (i.e. New York, Chicago, London) Amplitude has experienced world class results. He provides a deep philosophy on achieving success in the CTA industry.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Allocation of capital from a stop-loss point of view when doing short term trading
Amplitude Capital’s systems for trade implementation
Why high frequency trading is a very different strategy from that of Amplitude Capital’s
Risk management strategies and the framework for embedding these principles into the Amplitude Capital operations
Exploring the meaning of market correlation in short term CTA strategies
Karsten Schroeder’s philosophy on drawdowns
How managers can do a better job of explaining drawdowns
The role of teamwork and processes in the research cycle
The internal processes for validating implementation of strategies at Amplitude Captial
Karsten Schroeder’s explanation for why Amplitude has experienced such success
Do financial leaders need to live in financial hubs? How living outside of the financial hubs has impacted Amplitude Capital
The difference between European CTA managers and US counterparts. Why has the market dominance shifted?
The philosophy of failure that empowers Karsten Schroeder’s entrepreneurial journey
What continues to inspire Karsten to keep running the business
The question investors are not asking that they should be:

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU15: Model Decay & How Best to Handle It ft. Karsten Schroeder of Amplitude Capital – 1of2

21 juli 2014 | 47 min

Through courage and vision, Karsten Schroeder co-founded Amplitude Capital as a pioneer in the CTA industry.

Why pioneers? Because they focused on short term trading.

In this episode of Top Traders Unplugged, Karsten and I discuss Amplitude Capital’s scientific approach to Amplitude Dynamic and Amplitude Klassik. These are the two short-term rule based trading programs that Karsten and his team run to invest billions of dollars on behalf on a small group of institutional investors.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The founding story of Amplitude Capital
About the motivation source for choosing short term trading
The scientific processes guiding Amplitude’s perception of the markets
How Amplitude manages their in-house and outsourced business processes
Where the point of optimal capital under management is for Amplitude Capital
A bird’s eye view of their historical track record and their reaction to the market shift in 2009
On the effects of quantitative easing and other government interventions in market health
Model decay and how to best deal with it
The design structure of Amplitude Capital’s Programs
Market dynamics and where the Amplitude programs trade
Differing philosophies: market specific models vs. models for all markets
Comparing mean reversion models (counter trend models) vs. trend following models

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Karsten Schroeder on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU14: “You’re going to make a lot of money doing this…” ft. Jerry Parker – 2of2

16 juli 2014 | 68 min

Today we will continue our conversation with Jerry Parker the founder of Chesapeake Capital and widely known as the most successful Turtle ever.

After wrapping up his position with Richard J. Dennis as a famous “Turtle,” he went on to start his own asset management firm, Chesapeake Capital Corporation.

In this episode we discuss the evolving CTA industry and the story of Chesapeake. It’s a powerful story from one of the most successful people in the industry. We really hope you enjoy it.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How the research and complexity of systems has a backwards effect to making money
Challenges with entering stock markets with CTA strategies
Why counting the trades and analyzing sample size is what most investors forget to ask when seeking fund managers
Where the CTA managers have failed investors
How Jerry Parker handles emotions during drawdowns
Why markets have changed so that longer term focus has proven more successful
Learn about the philosophy of “The Markets are the Heroes”
Important lessons from a long, successful career in the CTA industry
What is it that keeps investors from Turtle CTAs and choose larger financial organizations
Why we see a skewed distribution towards profitability of long side trades and short side trades
The key legacy traits left behind by the Turtles and if the experiment could be replicated now
Why Jerry Parker’s contribution to the CTA space will be that he sticks with the plan and be the last one going down with the trend following ship
Lessons for upcoming CTA managers from Jerry Parker
Debunking trading cliches like, “you never go broke taking a profit” and “exits are more important than entries”
Personal habits that have contributed to Jerry Parker’s success
How Jerry Parker would start if he were to start all over again

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Ray Dalio – Bridgewater Capital
Learn about Jerry Parker’s Acting “Career” on his IMDB page

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry Parker on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU13: Lessons From the Most Successful Turtle of All-Time ft. Jerry Parker – 1of2

13 juli 2014 | 67 min

Imagine you found an advertisement in the newspaper offering a position with a one sentence application process.

Would you take it?

What if it was for a position where you would learn a proprietary trading system in which you would trade solely for owner of the firm?

What if that man was Richard Dennis?

Our next guest took that position in 1983 and it changed his life forever, for the better. He found himself with what was to become a famous title, a Turtle. He was given the opportunity to manage a million dollar account with specific rules to follow. Rules that he would learn to love and perfect.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

About the Turtles and how the unique experiment grew into the Managed Futures/CTA Industry
How Wall Street Leaks inspired Jerry into understanding the industry
How Jerry encountered trend following for the first time
The One Sentence culture in Richard J. Dennis’s office
How to excel at unprecedented tests from leading traders
What it was like moving to Chicago to train as a Turtle
What the Turtle training was like and the mindset provided in the training
The most challenging thing about Trend Following when Jerry started with Richard Dennis
About the transition from Turtle Trading to starting his own organization, Chesapeake Capital in 1998
The evolution of Chesapeake’s strategy from day one after leaving Richard Dennis’s program
The early focus on diversification and adding new markets
Issues with trying to improve the original Richard Dennis
The shift in investor expectations with the growth of institutional investment organizations while operating on of the largest CTA firms in the industry
Why it’s best to take an optimal loss rather than a small loss
On the meaningfulness of track records and what else investors should be encouraged to explore when choosing an investment management decision

-----

The advertisement Jerry responded to in 1983:

Richard J. Dennis and CD commodities is accepting applications for the position of Commodity Future Trader to expand his established group of traders. Mr. Dennis and his associate will train a small group of applicants in his proprietary trading concepts. Successful candidates will then trade solely for Mr. Dennis. They will not be allowed to trade futures for themselves or others. Traders will be paid a percentage of their trading profits and will be allowed a small draw. Prior experience will be considered, but is not necessary. Applicants should send a brief resume with one sentence giving their reason for applying.

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

The Barefoot Trader (Article about Richard Dennis in Wall Street Journal)
Learn more about Richard J. Dennis the founder of the Turtle program

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jerry Parker on Twitter.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU12: The Philosophy, Habits and Personal Traits Required to Excel in the Hedge Fund Industry ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 2of2

10 juli 2014 | 47 min

TTU11: Lessons From a Highly Educated Founder & Fund Manager ft. Mathias Bucher of AllMountainCapital – 1of2

7 juli 2014 | 46 min

TTU10: The Fairest Fee Structure in the Industry ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 2of2

3 juli 2014 | 40 min

What are you going to do to differentiate yourself from everyone else in the industry?

That’s the question Marty Bergin would ask the next guest on Top Traders Unplugged.

Welcome back for the second part of our interview with, Marty Bergin.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How trade decisions are generated and executed at DUNN Capital Management
The way Marty and DUNN manage the emotional challenges of trend following
Why many CTA firms are giving allocations to long equities and the results of that decision
How significant drawdowns help to make firms stronger
DUNN Capital Management’s approach to research
How DUNN Capital identifies and reacts to issues with external/strategic alliance situations
Portfolio development and decision-making at DUNN Capital
On the importance for personal ownership in a CTA firm
Learn about Michael Covel’s interview with Harry Markowitz
The importance (or lack of) of being located in a large financial hub
DUNN Capital’s investor focused fee structure
Why European CTA’s seem to be out growing the American firms
What does it take to become a great CTA in today’s environment

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about DUNN Capital

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU09: 40+ Years of Trading & Still Making NEW Highs ft. Marty Bergin of DUNN Capital Management – 1of2

29 juni 2014 | 40 min

TTU08: Key Traits to Success in the CTA Industry ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 2of2

26 juni 2014 | 49 min

Today we rejoin the conversation with Martin Estlander the Founder and CEO of Estlander & Partners. If you missed the first part, feel free to listen to it here.

In this episode we explore the evolution of the CTA industry, the skills required to run a successful business and finally the fun, less known facts of Martin’s life outside of trading.

Welcome to the second part of our conversations with Martin Estlander.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The best rule of thumb to visualize risk in a traditional CTA portfolio
What Martin has learned from being in drawdowns and the difference between drawdowns before and after 2009
The effect of volatility in the markets and how this impact CTA performance
How Martin Estlander manages the emotional roller coaster
Research processes and research cycles at Estlander & Partners
How to identify and address systems that were working but now aren’t
The biggest challenge for Estlander & Partners going forward
What are investors not asking that they should be asking when choosing a CTA
Where the misunderstandings can happen for investors when trying to understand the CTA industry
How to become better at communicating with investors
Martin’s key traits to success in the CTA industry
Personal habits that have contributed to the success of Martin Estlander
How Martin manages failures and improves from them
The things Martin would do differently if he started over today

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great traders

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU07: Inside Scandinavia’s Longest Running CTA Firm ft. Martin Estlander of Estlander & Partners – 1of2

22 juni 2014 | 50 min

Estlander & Partners – The Oldest CTA firm in Scandinavia and one of the Longest Running CTA firms in the World.

Thank you for listening to my conversation with its founder Martin Estlander.

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

How Martin got involved in the CTA Industry
The Evolution of Estlander & Partners and Where They are Today
Founding of an options trading business in Frankfurt in 1991
About the inspiring time in which he was part of the Commodities Corp. team until 1998 when Goldman Sachs came in and bought CC
About Jan Haraldsson’s Alpha Trend Program and how they recently opened the Program for external investors
The recreational activities that support Martin’s trading philosophy. Skiing, Tennis, Sailing and Meditation
An overview of the Main Programs Estlander & Partners run today – Alpha Trend, Freedom, Global Markets & Presto
The business organization of a modern day CTA firm – What is “in-house” and what is outsourced
How volatility is perceived in the Estlander & Partners portfolio
The structure of the Alpha Trend Program and why it is designed to trade 74 different instruments and how they mix together
How Alpha Trend’s pattern recognition differs from the traditional moving average crossover or price breakout
Whether Alpha Trend is Intra-day, End-of-Day… or both
What Alpha Trends’ models are designed to capture
How Alpha Trend manages stop loss and stop profits when entering a new market
Particularly important key performance drivers of Alpha Trend
The human intervention required to run the Alpha Trend model
How Martin Estlander defines risk
Achilles Risk and how Alpha Trend manages for it

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Learn about Commodities Corporation, the company behind some of the all-time great traders

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

Follow Estlander & Partners Linkedin.

IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.

TTU06: Why Trend Following Systems Make Money Over Time ft. Tushar Chande – 2of2

12 juni 2014 | 41 min

TTU05: What You Must Do To Survive In the CTA Business ft. Tushar Chande – 1of2

9 juni 2014 | 43 min

On today’s show I am talking to Tushar Chande, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Rho Asset Management. Tushar is also the author of a number of books on the topic of how to design rule based trading systems as well as having been actively trading these systems for more than 20 years.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Why the random nature of the markets attracted Tushar to develop systems for trading these markets
Background information on Rho Asset Management and it’s philosophy
How Tushar utilizes behaviors of discretionary traders to make estimates of conviction about their individual trades
How Rho has designed it’s Altius Program to offer meaningful protection when equity markets go down
What to be aware of when exploring an Asset Manager’s performance over a 20 year period
Offense/Defense Ratio, What it means and How to use it to Measure the quality of systems design
How Rho’s models have been designed in order to achieve the overall objective of the Program
What Trend Following Indicators are used for and why
Exploring the volatility of the equity curve
The input data needed to run the Altius Program, the time it takes and when they run the model

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Beyond Technical Analysis by Dr. Tushar Chande

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU04: What it Takes to Become a Great Trader ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 2of2

5 juni 2014 | 44 min

In this episode we continue our conversation with the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and discuss the aspects of what makes his rule based asset management style so successful.

Enjoy the second part of my conversation with, Mike Dever.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Continuing the Conversation around why Trend Following can be more difficult
Describing Disparate Return Drivers
How Brandywine Assets Management actually implements the decisions of their trading model
Why Position Sizing and Risk Management Principles are Everything
How position sizes are managed across various Return Drivers
Why Sharpe Ratio is a meaningless measure on it’s own. It doesn’t give you any idea on predictability of returns.
The professional traders approach to the emotional challenges of drawdown.
Managing regulation challenges
The environment of marketing trend following strategies to investors
What it takes to become a great trader today
Who Mike started out aspiring to be like
If Mike has any personal habits that contribute to his success

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Jackass Investing by Mike Dever
Learn about Dick Donchian the Grandfather of Trend Following
Learn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood Foundation
Learn about John W. Henry

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU03 How To Get Predictable Returns ft. Mike Dever of Brandywine Asset Management – 1of2

2 juni 2014 | 59 min

On today’s show I am talking to Mike Dever, the Founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management. Mike is a Divergent Thinking Systematic Investment Manager and Author of the best selling book “Jackass Investing”. Mike has been trading for almost 4 decades and shares a wealth of insight to how he has stayed successful and how his trading approach and research has stayed current in an ever changing financial landscape.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The Evolution of Mike’s Trading
How Mike almost got in to business with Richard Donchian
How they developed a systematic trading model in the 1980s
How Mike met and invested with Paul Tudor Jones, John W. Henry and was the first outside investor in Transtrend
How Mike went from being a discretionary trader to become fully systematic when launching the Benchmark Program, and Why
About the experience of running the Brandywine Benchmark Program in in the ‘90s
How Mike discovered the importance of Portfolio Allocation in the 1980s
The Story of Developing the Predictive Diversification Portfolio Allocation Model
The Entrepreneurial Storm that Kept Mike away from Trading and Brandywine for Years
The story of developing the Brandywine Symphony Program
How many people it takes to run a system with more than 1,000 strategy/market combinations
Exploring the track record of Brandywine Symphony Program
Why one should avoid making decisions based on single return drivers
5 Themes in Brandywine’s Asset Allocation Strategy: Fundamental, Sentiment, Event, Arbitrage and Alpha Hedge
How Marginal Cost of Production Works as a Return Driver
Are the strategies from the 1980’s just as effective today?
What is directional arbitrage?

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Jackass Investing by Mike Dever
Learn about Richard Donchian the Grandfather of Trend Following
Learn about Poul Tudor Jones of Robin Hood Foundation
Learn about John W. Henry

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mike Dever on Linkedin.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU02: Why The Game of Picking Sectors is a Fool’s Errand ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 2of2

29 maj 2014 | 63 min

Welcome back to our conversation with Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners.

In this interview we discuss the history of Sunrise Capital Partners, the current evolution in their financial product line and the inner workings of what it takes to make it as a successful trading organization in the ever changing market conditions.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

Exploring the design structure of the Sunrise Evolution program: Quadrant A, B, C and D and how they play together
Detailed examples of how trading models can be different.
How trade implementation works with complex systems like these
About the Volume of trading the Sunrise Capital does each day
Why the game of picking sectors is a fools errand
Strategies for dealing with the emotional weight of drawdowns
Sunrise Capital Management’s approach to research
The traits and what it takes to become a great CTA
-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

TTU01: Are Research Ideas Overrated? ft. Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital Partners – 1of2

26 maj 2014 | 38 min

Sunrise Capital was the first CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) ever.

The company has evolved considerably since its inception in the 1970s.

Today on the show, Jason Gerlach, the Chief Executive Officer at Sunrise Capital joins us to discuss the history of the company and about the evolution of their trading strategy over nearly 4 decades. Sunrise has achieved astounding results over the lifetime of the company and Jason provides unique insights to the inner workings of Sunrise.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In This Episode, You’ll Learn:

The story of Sunrise Capitals founding in the early 1970s
Rick Slaughter (Sunrise’s Chief Researcher) founded Commodity Monitors – the First Hedge Fund/CTA firm ever launched
Jack Forest (Sunrise Commodities) and Gary Davis (Cresta Commodities) – The doctors trading outside the hospital
How the three pioneers of the CTA/Commodity Trading Industry came together to form Sunrise Capital Partners in the mid 90’s
How Jason was brought on into the firm and developed a succession plan for the business
The unexpected story of how Jason “the Attorney” turned into Jason “the Systematic Trading Guy”
What Sunrise Capital Partners offer today?
How does one structure a CTA firm like Sunrise, what functions and how do you manage them?
The role of outsourcing in the day-to-day operations of Sunrise Capital Partners
What Sunrise discovered in the early 00’s which indicated to them a decay in long-term trend following and how they responded

-----

Resources & Links Mentioned in this Episode:

Download the article Niels mentioned: Fallacies to Avoid When Selecting a CTA

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Jason on LinkedIn.

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Top Traders Unplugged

Explore the captivating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his incredible co-hosts.

Om podden

Avsnitt

OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman

SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver

OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino

SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski

GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan

IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden

SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas

ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski

SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan

GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron

SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver

GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell

SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan

IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills

SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski

ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson

SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas

GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran

SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan

IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder

SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski

GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan

SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne

GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson

OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox

SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas

GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding

SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver

OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN

SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan

IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg

SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer

GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott

SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski

GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle

Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne

IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin

SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas

ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows

SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan

GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan

GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic

SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver

IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer

SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan

TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd

SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer

ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec

SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski

OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser

SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne

OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion

SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski

GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland

SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver

IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie

SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan