SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.

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In this episode, we discuss:

• Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
• Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
• How correlations can increase volatility
• The benefits of a more 'hands-off' approach to policy-making
• The common perils of 'recency bias'
• Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
• The hidden costs behind supposed 'low cost' funds

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Intro

03:14 – Macro recap from Niels

06:36 – Weekly review of performance

57:46 – Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?

1:08:29 – Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?

1:14:42 – Q3; Craig: Do you think CTAs are missing out by not trading small-cap crypto, and do you think they will eventually?

01:24:03 – Benchmark performance update

01:12:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Howard Marks’ latest memo

01:25:25 – Recommended listening or reading this week: MacroVoices Podcast featuring Juliette Declercq

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