SI198: Trend Following wearing Loose Pants ft. Jerry Parker

Today, we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how recessions affect current trends and returns for Trend Followers, how to use ATR to determine the initial stop and when to switch to using a trailing stop for your position. We also discuss if it's possible to achieve comparable performance when investing through a public or private fund. Finally we turn to a few imporant topics like how “alts” or "alternatives" mean different things to different people, the Commodity Super Cycle and how it can create a false narrative, how Trend Following adapts to market regimes and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:57 - Market overview

09:42 - Q1, Andre: What to expect after a good run in Trend Following returns

13:51 - Q2, Ryan: How to use Average True Range (ATR)

27:05 - Q3, David: Performance in public mutual funds vs. offshore funds

32:07 - Q4, Paul: When to switch from Initial to Trailing stop and sizing your position

39:56 - Q5, Victor: How did Jerry manage to give back 200 ATRs in TESLA?

47:17 - Q6, Victor: How to Allocate your Risk Budget to avoid running out of cash?

53:41 - The different meatnings of “Alts” when it comes to investing

01:02:04 - Commodity Super Cycles - a false narrative?

01:09:51 - How Trend Following adapts to ever chaning market regimes

01:13:02 - What to expect from Trend Following in the long run

01:18:37 - Industry performance update

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