SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?

10:59 - Industry performance update

14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?

19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour

25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness

30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets

34:31 - It takes two to crisis

39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?

41:56 - Is price all we need?

50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?

56:39 - Words of estimative probability

01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is

01:02:58 - Skew in trend following

01:05:38 - Thanks for listening

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