SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:43 - Industry performance update

10:17 - New times for bonds

14:37 - The issue is always in the details

19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?

22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing

26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto

29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?

30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?

34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage

38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?

43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment

45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics

48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt

50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?

55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market

58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens

01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?

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