Trumponomics

Former Trade Representative and Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman discusses what the world can expect from Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, and how Harris is breaking from Joe Biden. Hosted by Stephanie Flanders and Adrian Wooldridge. 

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The positive vibes are flowing at the Democratic National Convention, but what about policy proposals? On this special episode of Voternomics, Bloomberg Senior Executive Editor for Economics Stephanie Flanders heads to Chicago to find out how—if at all—a Kamala Harris presidency would alter the US government’s approach to the economy.

Flanders spoke with economist Heather Boushey, a member of President Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors who has previously served as president and chief executive of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “What I see,” Boushey said, speaking in her personal capacity, “is the vice president putting together an agenda to make sure that the government is working to build the middle class, to make sure that prices are fair, to make sure that people have economic opportunities.”

Boushey cited price gouging, taxes and housing as three areas where Harris has discussed her economic plans. “We’ve seen challenges in insufficient housing supply. We’ve seen that it just costs too much for families,” said Boushey, adding that Harris has unveiled policies that would increase housing. She also pointed to the vice president’s statements regarding a “robust plan” to expand the child tax credit.

But how will Harris propose that Congress pay for these policies? “She is committed to making sure that we fix the tax system in the US so that it is more fair so that corporations pay their fair share,” Boushey said.

About the series: Each week, listen in as Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics coverage, Allegra Stratton, author of Bloomberg’s The Readout newsletter and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge help make sense of the elections that will affect markets, countries and economies like never before. 

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The rapid commercialization of space is launching the world into an “era of astropolitics,” journalist and author Tim Marshall tells host Allegra Stratton on this episode of Voternomics.

Commercial companies are driving “Space Race 2.0,” from commercial fleets of satellites a few hundred miles above Earth to NASA’s search for private companies to bring back a piece of the moon. Ultimately, Marshall says, entities are eyeing the lucrative prospect of mining extraterrestrial objects for resources needed to provide renewable energy. “As a country or a company, you cannot afford not to be part of this.” 

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Democratic powers in Europe, as well as Japan and Australia could be left out on a limb should Donald Trump win the US presidential election in November, cable news host and author Fareed Zakaria tells Adrian Wooldridge in this episode of Voternomics. He says the former president and convicted felon may opt for a policy of protectionism instead of America’s long-standing practice of internationalism—all as US political influence continues to wane.  

Zakaria, host of the CNN program GPS, contends the world is experiencing a backlash to globalization similar to one in the 1920s—as set out in his new book, Age of Revolutions, which makes Wooldridge’s summer reading list. This dynamic is made all the more stark by Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party into an anti-immigrant, trade-skeptic entity, he says. 

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A network of dictators from China to Venezuela could be the beneficiaries of a welcoming White House should Donald Trump win the US election come November. That’s according to journalist and historian Anne Applebaum, who warns that the self-proclaimed dealmaker and convicted felon’s foreign policy may be more personal and even less predictable in a second term. Applebaum joins Voternomics host Stephanie Flanders to discuss her latest book Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run The World. 

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President Joe Biden announced Sunday he’s no longer seeking the Democratic Party’s nomination, saying his exit from the race was in the best interests of his party and the country. He then threw his support to his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris. But is it as simple as that? Will Harris receive her party's nomination? Is she the best person the Democrat's have to take on Donald Trump? And does the market's mild response to the news suggest many think a Donald Trump victory is still the most likely outcome?

Hosts Stephanie Flanders and Adrian Wooldridge explore those questions. Plus, we bring you an episode from our sister show the Big Take -- Gregory Korte and Laura Davison, who cover money and politics for Bloomberg, discuss Kamala Harris’s fundraising edge and how Democratic donors are reacting to the news. 

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What could a second Donald Trump presidency look like, should he defeat US President Joe Biden in November, and how could the Republican’s policies shape markets and the world economy?

We discuss with Elbridge Colby, a member of the first Trump administration and potential National Security Advisor if there’s a second one.

Also on this episode, a conversation with Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook, who joins from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. And finally, Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait discusses his column on what lessons the Republicans could glean from the recent defeat of the Conservatives in the UK. 

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From the Paris Bureau, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Jean-Claude Trichet, former European Central Bank president and Bank of France governor, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lionel Laurent, and Eleonora Mavroeidi, an economist for Bloomberg Economics, to debrief on the election results.

"The worst has been avoided," says Trichet, but now France must embark on a "very complex maturing process."

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In a special edition of Voternomics, the former CEO of Legal & General Nigel Wilson urges the new UK government to be bold and act fast. He speaks with host Stephanie Flanders and Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait.

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Abrdn Chairman Douglas Flint joins this week to explain why he thinks the new government needs to build up transportation and education. Senior reporter Phil Aldrick also joins to discuss the sort of economy Labour will inherit if it wins this week's election. Hosted by Stephanie Flanders, Adrian Wooldridge, and Allegra Stratton. 

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On this special episode of Voternomics, Tim O’Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion and author of TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald, and Bloomberg Big Take podcast host, David Gura join host Stephanie Flanders to discuss the US presidential debate on Thursday night, including President Joe Biden’s poor performance, Donald Trump’s repeated falsehoods, the lack of fact-checking and how it all will shape the future of the race.

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On this episode of Voternomics, former UK diplomat Tom Fletcher discusses how the Labour Party leader’s first 30 days could define his premiership.  Plus, reporter Ellen Milligan discusses her story on Labour’s position on Brexit. Hosted by Allegra Stratton and reporters Alex Wickham and Ailbhe Rae. 

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“We, the left, have messed up,” said Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister who came to fame negotiating on behalf of the Greek government during the country’s 2015 debt crisis. “We’ve tried, we’ve been tested and we failed our test.”

Varoufakis joins this week’s Voternomics podcast, in which hosts Allegra Stratton, Stephanie Flanders and Adrian Wooldridge take a closer look at the rise of far-right populism in Europe and the retreat of left-wing progressivism. Francesco Giubilei, author of The History of European Conservative Thought and president of the conservative foundation Fondazione Tatarella, also joins this week’s episode to discuss the success of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. 

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It’s been a busy few days in the world of economics and politics. The big developments include UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s damaging decision to skip a high-profile D-Day event, voters across Europe handing gains to right-wing parties and French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise announcement of snap elections.

All of this was discussed at a live taping of Voternomics before an audience at Bloomberg’s London offices. Hosts Allegra Stratton, Adrian Wooldridge and Stephanie Flanders were joined by Editor in Chief John Micklethwait, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and Bloomberg Television anchor Francine Lacqua. 

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Europe cannot rely on America for its long-term security, says Robin Niblett, distinguished fellow and former director of Chatham House. On this episode of Voternomics, Niblettt—who conceives of a multi-decade “structural conflict” between China and the US—says Europe has experienced a “wake up call.” 

Plus, Stephanie, Allegra and Adrian discuss Brexit architect Nigel Farage's decision to run in the UK election and reporter Swati Gupta joins to break down the India election surprise. 

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On this special Monday episode, White House national security adviser for economics Daleep Singh explains how America is seeking to maintain global influence. Bloomberg senior editor Ruchi Bhatia discusses the likely victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in India’s election and what it means for the world’s fastest-growing major economy. And Stephanie and Allegra discuss the election results in South Africa and Mexico. 

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For the past three decades, South African politics have been defined by the African National Congress. But with initial forecasts from the May 29 vote showing a marked decline in support for the ruling party, change looks likely. 

So what do the various potential outcomes mean for South Africa’s growth and debt outlook? For investor interest in the country? Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge and Senior Executive Editor Jacqueline Simmons review the landscape with Bloomberg economist Yvonne Mhango.

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Bad actors using machine-learning, generative artificial intelligence and the power of digital networks are seeding ever-more distrust in democracy, warns Audrey Tang, former digital affairs minister for Taiwan. Tang joins this week’s episode of Voternomics to discuss the risk of foreign interference in the many elections happening around the world, as well as lessons learned while combating efforts to distort the political debate in Taiwan. 

Plus, Bloomberg political correspondent Nancy Cook discusses the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling which reveals the unease voters feel around the US election—from misinformation to political violence and foreign interference.

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On this special edition of Voternomics, we discuss the possible reasoning behind the Conservative’s decision to gamble on an earlier-than-expected vote. 

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Former Munich Security Conference Chair Wolfgang Ischinger joinsVoternomics to explain the new European project he says is needed. Plus, Bloomberg reporter Michael Nienaber discusses why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s popularity remains at historic lows while the far-right AfD party may see gains in the European parliament next month. 

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Ben Page, chief executive of market research company Ipsos, joins Voternomics this week to outline what he’s discovered about voters and what they think about their politicians, governments and economies. He tells Stephanie Flanders and Allegra Stratton that trust in politics is the “lowest we’ve ever measured.” 

Also on this episode, Flanders, Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge ask Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers whether—given the question of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates between now and the election—the central bank can remain above the political fray.

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Karen Ward, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief market strategist for EMEA, joins this week to explain why politicians are being punished for the sins of central banks. Ward, a former Bank of England economist and adviser to both UK Chancellors Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt, tells Stephanie Flanders, Allegra Stratton and Adrian Wooldridge about the damage done as a result of missteps when it comes to inflation. 

Plus, Bloomberg News editor Craig Trudell unpacks how Elon Musk is driving on both sides of the US-China relationship. 

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Welcome to the first episode of Voternomics. On this podcast, Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics coverage, Allegra Stratton, author of Bloomberg’s The Readout newsletter and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge discuss how voters have the opportunity to affect markets, countries and economies like never before. Historian Niall Ferguson and Bloomberg Washington reporter Nancy Cook join our hosts to give their take on this unique moment in time.

Ferguson explains why he believes the 2024 US presidential election isn’t about foreign policy, why Donald Trump is using his 2016 campaign strategy and why the second Cold War is escalating faster than the first. 

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Stephanie is back with a new podcast series.

This is the year of elections. Around 40 percent of the world has the chance to vote in 2024. And those votes will shape the geo-economic landscape for years to come.

The implications for business and democracy are huge and worth exploring, which is why Stephanie is joining Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge and Bloomberg contributor and former government advisor Allegra Stratton for a new series called “Voternomics.”

It’s a weekly look at the way geopolitics - and elections - are upending the longstanding assumptions of policymakers and business people around the world. In short, it’s a series about how elections mean business.

Don’t miss the first episode coming this Friday. 

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The Big Take from Bloomberg News brings you inside what’s shaping the world's economies with the smartest and most informed business reporters around the world. The context you need on the stories that can move markets. Every afternoon.

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As you await the latest episode of Stephanomics, check out another podcast from our team here at Bloomberg: Daybreak Europe Edition. Every episode delivers the day's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes. Available every morning by 7am GMT in your feed.  

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At Bloomberg, we’re always talking about the biggest business stories, and no one is bigger than Elon Musk.

In this new chat weekly show, host David Papadopoulos and a panel of guests including Businessweek’s Max Chafkin, Tesla reporter Dana Hull, Big Tech editor Sarah Frier, and more, will break down the most important stories on Musk and his empire. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Seventeen months after Russia invaded Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians remain scattered around the world, with no end to the war in sight. Many of those who fled are women and children. Unless they return when the fighting is over, some of the damage inflicted on their country's economy may become permanent.

On this season’s final episode of Stephanomics, Kyiv bureau chief Daryna Krasnolutska explains why women are so critical to Ukraine’s recovery. Most men age 18-60 aren’t allowed to leave the country, which explains why 68% of Ukrainian refugees are women. Of them, some 2.8 million are working-age. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Economist Alexander Isakov, who estimates that Ukraine’s economy would lose $20 billion a year, or about 10% of its pre-war GDP, should none of them return. The government, which says it needs 4.5 million workers to achieve its reconstruction goals, is working on incentives, including narrowing the gender pay gap, to lure them back.

Flanders also chats with Marta Foresti, a senior fellow from the Overseas Development Institute in London, who discusses the importance of refugees (especially women) to their home economies, as well as her experience of working with returnees to Sierra Leone after its decade-long civil war.

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The green minerals boom has triggered a new scramble for natural resources across the developing world. From Southeast Asia to Africa, countries rich with raw materials necessary for things like electric vehicle batteries are trying to capitalize on it without falling victim to the “resource curse.”

There’s a long and inglorious history of commodity-rich economies failing to get rich from their natural wealth. The money pours in from industrialized nations when global demand is high, but when boom turns to bust, they often end up worse than neighboring economies not similarly “blessed.” Those nations are hoping this time could be different.

On this episode of Stephanomics, reporter Claire Jiao hears how Indonesia, home to a large chunk of the world’s nickel, has led the way by banning the export of processed forms of the metal so vital to the production of EVs. The idea is that instead of exporting its enormous reserves of raw nickel and bauxite, it can turn them into EV batteries, or even EVs themselves, for shipping abroad, thereby kickstarting local manufacturing. So far, it seems to be working.

Host Stephanie Flanders then sits down with Jim Cust, senior economist for Africa at the World Bank, and senior reporter Jack Farchy to discuss whether Indonesia has set an example African nations could follow as they look to partake in this new gold rush, and whether pulling it off to the scale will be the exception or the rule.

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People in China are blocked from seeing much of what’s happening in the outside world. For outsiders, it can be just as difficult to see in.

This week, Stephanie interviews Keyu Jin, professor at the London School of Economics and author of The New China Playbook. Jin discusses what she considers misunderstandings of China’s ambitions and goals in the world, and the risks that come with such views.

She says that one of the biggest misconceptions is that China is trying to displace the US. What it’s really aiming for, Jin explains, is to improve living standards for its middle-income earners. She also discusses the current state of China’s economy, its relations with the US and Europe and the skills gap contributing to high youth unemployment. Within China, there’s widespread gratitude and deference toward the government, something outsiders often find surprising, Jin says. But she warns this could change if slower economic growth translates into fewer high-quality jobs.

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Covid-19 was supposed to mean the end of the city as we know it. Buzzing urban centers would give way to boarded-up ghost towns as white-collar employees worked from home in perpetuity. Now, two months after the pandemic’s end, it’s clear that dystopian vision won’t come to pass. But among the best-known cities, winners and losers are emerging. Some have people and riches flowing in while others struggle to recover. 

On this week’s episode of Stephanomics, we start off in Dubai, a popular destination for wealthy Russians who fled when Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine. Bloomberg Television anchor Manus Cranny tells host Stephanie Flanders about the city’s massive increases in rent, and in particular his own experience. 

It’s a similar story in Singapore, says Bloomberg Senior Reporter Michelle Jamrisko. As Xi Jinping pushes his “common prosperity” mandate at home, the richest Chinese are looking to protect their assets by pouring money into the city-state. The influx of wealth has in turn turbocharged rents and restaurant prices, all at the expense of a shrinking middle class. 

When it comes to the losers in this post-pandemic shakeout, look no further than San Francisco. Once the glittering high-tech hotbed of wild wealth and exorbitant real estate, the outflow of people and money exacerbated by the recent tech downturn may have done irrevocable damage, says California Bureau Chief Karen Breslau. Flanders speaks with her and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox about how San Francisco’s fate compares with other US cities, many of which are managing to climb back.

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The US economy has proven resilient after more than a year’s worth of interest-rate hikes, with a steady drumbeat of recession predictions having been proven wrong. New data released this week continued to point away from a downturn. Still, some forecasters warn a recession might still be coming, and that it could coincide with the 2024 presidential election.

On this week’s episode, we look at how the current leading candidates for the White House are framing the economy. Bloomberg Senior Reporter Nancy Cook describes the challenge facing President Joe Biden: the economy has thrived on his watch, especially in terms of record low unemployment, but the overhang of persistent inflation weighs heavy on voters’ minds. Meantime, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump haven’t put forward any economic plans and have largely focused on divisive social issues and the threats posed by China.

Then Stephanie sits down with Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, and Bloomberg economist Anna Wong. They discuss how the US economy will evolve leading up to the 2024 vote, and how important it might be in deciding the election. Wong says that, while Biden’s signature economic legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law—are investments that will play out in the long term, short-term costs of higher inflation and recession risks may offset the benefits, and even outweigh them.

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Climate change is fast transforming the planet. Global warming is fueling drought, massive wildfires, rising sea levels and stronger hurricanes. Now scientists and economists are worried about another knock-on effect: faster inflation.

On this episode of Stephanomics, we hear from reporter Laura Curtis, who explains how drought has lowered the water level of a lake feeding the Panama Canal, which could in turn boost shipping costs. A similar phenomenon is already playing out in Europe, where low water levels in the Rhine River are making it more expensive to transport key commodities across the continent.

Then host Stephanie Flanders chats with Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen and Bloomberg economist Bhargavi Sakthivel about the economic impacts of El Nino, a period of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The system, which scientists say is becoming more frequent and intense thanks to global warming, is already placing upward pressure on prices of agricultural goods like coffee and sugar. That could lead to higher inflation and lower growth in several countries in the tropics and southern hemisphere.

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Globalization was once the watchword of Washington. Bill Clinton made it a centerpiece of his economic policy, from the North American Free Trade Agreement to ushering China into the World Trade Organization. But two decades later, America has become increasingly protectionist, pushing strategic industrial policies and trade barriers.

Just the other day, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan turned heads when he said "the postulate that deep trade liberalization would help America export goods, not jobs and capacity, was a promise made and not kept." Indeed, the Biden Administration has been touting a new kind of trade policy, one known as "friend-shoring." It encourages friendly nations and their companies to shift manufacturing away from geopolitical rivals like China and toward allies. 

On this episode, Stephanie speaks with Mike Froman, who served as the US Trade Representative under President Barack Obama, about how trade policy has evolved since his administration and where it's heading. We also sit down with Senior Editor Brendan Murray, who takes us to Morocco, a country where globalization still holds sway. There, companies from China and Russia are manufacturing auto parts and sending them around the world.

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Joe Biden, like so many other presidents before him, put America’s re-industrialization at the center of his campaign for the White House. And like his predecessors, he’s found that the “Made in America” label remains hard to find. Indeed, more countries are trying to cut their reliance on imports from China, the global giant of manufacturing, citing everything from geopolitical tensions to human rights abuses and supply-chain snarls. But the reality is they still can’t seem to break away from the “world’s factory floor.” And when they try, it doesn’t work out well.

On this episode we take you around the world to see what’s standing in their way. Bloomberg reporter Jeannette Neumann tours clothing factories in Los Angeles, the heart of America’s apparel industry, and struggles to find tags that don’t say “Made in China.” In India, Bloomberg editor Ruchi Bhatia and reporter Vrishti Beniwal explore toy stores in New Delhi, and find the selection lacking thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s effort to cut out goods from his neighbor to the north.

Finally, we have more from Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee and his chat with host Stephanie Flanders. They discuss how realistic it really is for companies to even try to diversify their supply chains beyond China.

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The idea that artificial intelligence would someday replace humans in certain jobs is nothing new. Now, as some companies make plans for this new reality, it's still an open question as to whether AI should be feared--or embraced as a technology that will make the world a better place.

On this episode, Daron Acemoglu, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tells Stephanie that while it may be right to be concerned, people shouldn't be scared. They discuss a new book co-authored by Acemoglu, Power and Progress, and whether AI will yield benefits similar to those conferred by other technological and scientific advancements throughout history.

The key to making AI work in the long run, Acemoglu says, is that workers maintain a role and a voice through protections like unions and government regulation. Without those guardrails, he warned, AI may indeed sideline more humans from the workforce.

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The US debt ceiling is all anyone in Washington (and increasingly elsewhere) can talk about these days. For months, politicians have been in a stalemate triggered by Republican demands for spending cuts as the price for paying America's debts. With next week seen as the point at which the Treasury may have to start issuing IOUs, any deal to avert a catastrophic default is going to come down to the wire. 

Recent sticking points are tied to potential spending caps, the GOP's insistence on slashing domestic spending for several years and the Biden administration's desire for more limited cuts. On this episode of Stephanomics, Senior Editor Chris Anstey and reporter Josh Wingrove give us the state of play, from explaining what exactly the debt ceiling is to laying out some scenarios of how things progress from here. 

Stephanie then sits down with economist Stephen King to talk about government debt levels more broadly, and if we should be worried given how high interest rates have climbed.

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Some of the world's largest economies are struggling with a response to the rising influence of China and Russia. Specifically, how the ambitions of those two authoritarian nations tend not to conform with Western ideals. And nowhere is this more relevant than in Japan, for whom China, Russia and indeed North Korea are neighbors.

Those tense relations and their economic implications are top of mind at this week's Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan, where we take you for this episode. From a city that suffered the unspeakable destruction of nuclear weapons, Bloomberg's Yoshiaki Nohara explains how the nation is now trying to balance its longtime aversion to war with the growing threats in its backyard.

Stephanie then sits down with Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, and Rory Medcalf, who leads the National Security College at the Australian National University. They discuss not only Japan's strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region, but also China's significance in the global economy. 

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Inflation rates may be slowing broadly across Europe, but you wouldn’t know it after a trip to the grocery store or dining out. And there’s only so much governments can do to help their people cope.

In this week’s Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes you across the continent to see how much more it costs to make some of the world’s most famous dishes, from France’s coq au vin to pizza margherita in Italy. Politicians have tried to limit the pain of high prices, but their efforts have barely made a dent.

Bloomberg has been tracking custom food indexes around the world for close to a year, including the traditional English breakfast. Reporter Irina Anghel tells us about the latest reading, which showed the average basket of ingredients—including eggs, bread and milk—spiked almost 23% in the past year. Host Stephanie Flanders then chats with Joe Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, about the outlook for global food prices.

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The banking crisis that began in March continues to rapidly evolve. What started with the collapse of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank went on to claim Signature Bank and push a vulnerable Credit Suisse into the arms of UBS. This week, another midsize California lender that couldn’t find its footing also dropped, as First Republic was acquired by JPMorgan.

In the first episode of this season, we catch you up on the turmoil in the financial sector and how it’s straining US small businesses that rely on these banks for capital. Bloomberg reporter Mike Sasso takes us to Florida, where a couple that’s trying to create a space for people to eat and drink while playing the fast-growing sport of pickleball is struggling to get an affordable loan.

The topic dominated discussions at this week’s Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. Host Stephanie Flanders sat down with Milken Institute Chief Economist William Lee, who warns that cutting off small businesses from borrowing would hit the labor market almost directly. However, he says that’s exactly what the Federal Reserve wants, as illustrated by a cycle of rate hikes that, after Wednesday's latest increase, may finally be at an end. 

And finally, Flanders speaks with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, who said the banking crisis highlights the complacency of regulators when it comes to financial risk. 

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We all might one day be replaced by robots or ChatGPT. But for now, businesses still need humans to make computer chips or staff daycare centers. Problem is, too few workers in the US are actually working and too few people are having babies. That’s a major concern for American industry, policymakers, and most immediately, tech giant Intel Corp. The company is trying to find 7,000 people in central Ohio to build its new semiconductor facilities and 3,000 more to staff them.

On this, the season’s final episode of Stephanomics, we dig into the super-tight US labor market, which is expected to get even tighter as more of the nation’s skilled workers retire. First, senior reporter Shawn Donnan visits Licking County, Ohio, future home to a $20 billion chip plant that will pay workers an average annual salary of $135,000. The Biden administration hopes Intel’s project sparks a wave of manufacturing projects in strategic industries like semiconductors and electric vehicles.

Then reporter Ben Steverman offers some insight into the roughly 2.6 million US workers who’ve gone missing since the pandemic began. A recent study by Harvard University economist Raj Chetty suggests many of them waited tables, cut hair and staffed gyms in relatively affluent neighborhoods. When these wealthy residents slashed their spending and stayed home as Covid-19 bore down, it created a wave of business closures and job losses. Many of those workers, Steverman explains, never returned.

Meanwhile the nation’s working-age population is growing at its slowest pace since 1960, and total population actually dropped in at least 24 states, including Ohio. Host Stephanie Flanders follows up on America’s demographic challenges with University of Maryland economist Melissa Kearney, also director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group. The US birth rate, at just under 1.7 children per woman, is well below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1, and the share of working-age adults who are actually working is falling, says Kearney.  

Long term, fewer workers means fewer ideas and less specialization, she warns, all of which could mean lower income and living standards in the US and globally. 

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“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we’ll be all poorer and we would be less secure.”

In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says.

Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says.

Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.

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Frustrated by prices at the grocery store? People in countries with advanced economies who have been grousing about single-digit inflation have nothing on Argentina and Turkey. There, inflation is above 90% and 60%, respectively. In the words of one tourist in Buenos Aires, carrying enough cash to pay for a flight leaves one feeling like a bank robber—with a stack of pesos as thick as a brick. With new consumer price data on Thursday, the US is getting a better idea where inflation is headed there. But as it reopens, China remains a wild card for the whole world. 

In this week’s episode of Stephanomics, we look at what’s driving prices up in two of the world’s inflation hot spots, and when prices may finally cool there and elsewhere. First, reporter Patrick Gillespie details the alternately quirky and harrowing state of Argentina’s currency. For tourists, using it is a relatively minor inconvenience. Because of strict government currency controls, travelers can get a far better exchange rate through non-bank sources like Western Union (and on the black market) than by going through Argentine banks. So, there are endless lines of tourists at Western Union locations, and it’s made the country something of a laughingstock: Brazilian soccer fans recently tore up near-worthless pesos to mock their Argentine rivals.

Of course, Argentines are faring much worse. The poverty rate has soared from 25% to 40% in recent years. In the words of one nurse, “a pair of shoes is half my salary.” Meantime in Ankara, an inflation rate of 65% is actually an improvement from the 85% price increases the Turkish citizenry faced a short while ago. Reporter Beril Akman shares the dubious economic strategy pursued by the nation’s central bank and President Recep Erdogan. Whereas other nations are feverishly slashing interest rates to cool their economies and bring down inflation, Turkey is doing the opposite: keeping rates low and raising the minimum wage. The fallout? An Ankara flower shop merchant shares with Akman how electricity costs are so high he’s stopped using his refrigerator.

Finally, host Stephanie Flanders zooms in on Turkey with Bloomberg economist Selva Bahar Baziki, and zooms out to look at the global picture with Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Baziki explains that while inflation is taking a toll on the Turkish people, “mystery money” flowing in from Russia is helping to soften the blow, at least for now. Orlik says global inflation peaked at around 10% in the third quarter of last year, and it should fall to 5% by the end of this year. The big risk is that growth in China will take off now that it's shedding its “Covid zero” restrictions. If so, that could cause inflation to go in the wrong direction again, Orlik said.

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If it feels like the US relationship with China is a tinderbox waiting to explode, chalk some of it up to political expedience. Leaders on either side of the Pacific have played the blame game for years, faulting each other for their troubles while failing to enact necessary reforms at home, says economist and China scholar Stephen Roach. Meantime, these “false narratives” have built up so much animosity that a new Cold War has emerged, he says. The fight, as Senior Editor Chris Anstey explains, potentially spans everything from rules governing the internet to the most mundane facet of consumerism.

On this first Stephanomics episode of the new year, we feature a double shot of brewing economic and political conflict between the US and its Western allies on one side and China on the other. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Roach about his new book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. Things didn’t have to be this bad, says Roach, a former chief economist for Morgan Stanley and now senior fellow at Yale Law School. Years ago, the US and China regularly held big economic and strategic forums. Nowadays, Chinese officials have Zoom calls, or Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of a G20 summit, accomplishing “nothing,” Roach says.

What happened? Roach says the deterioration of US-China relations stems from a zeal for blaming the other side for one’s own shortcomings. US leaders routinely blame China for the large trade imbalance favoring the Chinese, Roach says. To be sure, China is the biggest source of the imbalance, but countries run trade deficits because they fail to save. “And when you don’t save and you want to grow, you import surplus savings from abroad, and you run massive current account or balance of payments deficits,” Roach says. In China, leaders know they need to rejigger their economy to reduce dependence on exports and investment while bolstering domestic consumer consumption. But it’s easier just to blame the US for constraining its growth, Roach says.

In a lighter segment, Anstey explains a growing rift between the US and China. He does so by way of the lowly desiccant, those small packets of silica gel that keep moisture out of everything from new sneakers to electronics. Last year, China decided the world needed a new production standard for desiccant packets, part of a much larger effort to influence standards on everything from desiccants to internet protocols. The latter would give Beijing a larger say in how things are made globally. Ultimately, US representatives helped kill the new desiccant standard, much to the delight of sneaker, textile and food companies who figure one desiccant is as good as the next. Still, the fight over production standards is heating up, and where moisture-reducing packets are low-risk, cybersecurity experts worry more about China’s efforts to influence internet standards.

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Hosted by Bloomberg Opinion senior executive editor Tim O'Brien, Crash Course will bring listeners directly into the arenas where epic business and social upheavals occur. Every week, Crash Course will explore the lessons to be learned when creativity and ambition collide with competition and power -- on Wall Street and Main Street, and in Hollywood and Washington.

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A push for peace in Ukraine, a recovering China and good news for US consumers may be in the cards.

Will China keep moving beyond its "Covid-zero" policy in the face of a massive infection wave? When and how will Russia's war on Ukraine end? Will Donald Trump really go ahead with his US presidential campaign next year? Groundhog Day won't arrive in the US until February, but until then the Stephanomics podcast has assembled a crack team of prognosticators rivaling Punxsutawney Phil himself to give a glimpse into 2023.

In this annual look-ahead edition of the podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into the future with Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, and three Bloomberg experts, Chief Economist Tom Orlik, Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins and London-based TV anchor Francine Lacqua. First, with inflation and interest rates dominating economic headlines, Orlik gives a somewhat reassuring outlook for the US. Price hikes will fall rapidly from their perch above 7% in 2023, but they'll remain high enough that the Federal Reserve will keep tightening the money supply for now, Orlik says.

In US politics, Trump's bid for a second term has gotten off to a slow start. Facing multiple criminal investigations and diminishing party support, some are wondering if his heart is really in it. However, since he's announced that he's running, we'd better assume the Republican might be on the ballot in 2024, even if potential rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis don't clear a path for him, Collins said. The man who defeated Trump in 2020, President Joe Biden, has his own challenges next year now that the GOP controls the House of Representatives. Collins sees Biden circumventing a deadlocked Congress by making prolific use of executive orders, as many of his predecessors have done in the past.

Across the Atlantic, Grant predicts the French, Italians and Germans, joined by the US, will eventually urge Ukraine to cede territory to reach a peace agreement, despite the tens of thousands of its citizens killed by Russia in its war. While some Eastern European nations are taking a hardline stance against the Kremlin, including pushing for regime change, Biden and his allies foresee having to work with Russia over the long term, Grant says, and may take a more diplomatic approach. Meantime, the continent has been spared a full-on energy crisis, in part because of a mild European winter and a large supply of natural gas in storage, Lacqua says. That could change, though, with the European Union's new cap on gas prices. Energy importers may choose to send their natural gas elsewhere and cause prices in Europe to soar, Lacqua warns.

China currently faces a national crisis as coronavirus cases flood hospitals and threaten to kill more than a million people. It's a public health catastrophe that was triggered by Xi Jinping's sudden reversal of his "Covid-zero" policy. But in 2023, that turnabout may have Beijing's desired effects: After the infection wave recedes, Orlik predicts China's economy may finally turn the corner. He sees the country growing by 5.1% next year, with the risk being that it grows too quickly and puts a strain on the world's commodity supplies. For now, the US and Europe have been somewhat at odds over China, with the US more concerned about Beijing's accumulation of power and the threat to US security. Europe may be forced to side with its US allies, Grant says. "The more we get into a sort of new Cold War, the more inevitably the Europeans, however reluctantly, are forced to take sides and will take sides on the American side," he says.

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Thirty years after the Cold War ended, a new one of sorts is emerging between China and the West, a leading economic scholar asserts. As a muscular China seeks to refashion trade and geopolitical organizations in its own image, the US and many of its allies face a key challenge: keeping Beijing on board with trade pacts and efforts to slow global warming without ceding ground on democratic freedoms.

In this special episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks economics and geopolitics with Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and author of the new book, Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order. Years ago, world leaders could set their monetary, national security and human rights policies independently, but nowadays all of those things are interconnected and everything is more complicated. This new reality was evident when the Group of Seven leading economies, responding to the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine, froze Russian currency reserves held in Western banks, Tucker says.

Tucker predicts that developing nations will eventually topple the existing world order, shaping one in which the US, Europe and Japan no longer call all the shots. In this new iteration, international trade and diplomatic entities will have to be completely remade. But Tucker says that’s still a few decades away, because while China is already a world power, India and a few other developing nations remain a ways off. For now, the US will enjoy a “lingering status quo” in global finance as issuer of the world’s premier reserve currency, but global trade, cross-border investment and everything else will see more jostling for power, something between a “superpower struggle” and a “new Cold War.”

Tucker sees China trying to influence global trade and politics much more in coming years, a real concern for the West since Beijing tends to prioritize Communist Party control over civil liberties. World leaders will need to walk a fine line when dealing with Beijing, he says, working with China on pressing global issues while distancing themselves on others. “I think the big thing is China is too powerful” for the US and its allies to tell it how to reorder its society, Tucker tells Flanders. Still, the West should “should find common cause” where it can.

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There's evidence the Federal Reserve may have finally gained the upper hand in its war against inflation, a potential relief not only for US investors but also real estate agents 8,000 miles away in Hong Kong. The central bank's year-long rate-hike campaign has stymied America's housing market as well as that of the Asian financial hub, and people on both continents will be glad to see the back of it. 

This week, we explore how global challenges like inflation, rising interest rates and worker shortages are moving markets in three continents. First, Chief US Economist Anna Wong tells host Stephanie Flanders that, while inflation appears to be slowing in the US, it's too early to tell if the Fed has won the war. Too many risks remain in the global economy, including Russia cutting its oil production or China's reopening sending commodities prices soaring. 

What appears more clear, Wong says, is that someone may have gotten a heads-up on this week's surprising US inflation report. A minute before the Consumer Price Index numbers went public, someone traded heavily on Treasury futures. "So, by being a bit early, before everybody gets the same data, somebody is making a lot of money with that move,'' she says. 

Next, we travel to Hong Kong, home to one of the world's priciest property markets. Reporter Enda Curran and producer Yang Yang visit a 33rd-floor apartment that just sold for $3.2 million -- a relative bargain for a unit with a view of the famous Happy Valley Racecourse. In a better market, it might have fetched almost 10% more, the unit's real estate agent said. While China's restrictive "Covid zero" policy may be partly to blame, so too is US monetary policy. Since Hong Kong's currency is linked to the US dollar, Fed rate hikes ricochet across the city's system. And just as US housing prices are cooling off, economists say prices here could fall 30% from their peak.

Finally, reporter Alessandra Migliaccio shares how Italy's legendary fashion companies are struggling to persuade young people to make 1,000-euro boots. The nation's youth unemployment rate is almost 24%, but roughly one in every two job postings in the luxury industry goes unfilled, according to trade group Altagamma. New Fendi Chief Executive Officer Serge Brunschwig is on something of a crusade to reverse the trend and get Italian youth to take up the craft. Still, it's no easy sell. In the words of one 18-year-old who's learning shoemaking, ``People say, `Oh, you make shoes? That’s a bit useless.'"

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As the rest of the world raises interest rates to battle inflation, Japan curiously is clinging to low rates to raise wages and finally move past its long battle with deflation. But as Tokyo tries to hold the line, the fastest inflation in decades is spooking a country unaccustomed to it. And the “decoupling” of the US and China, along with Russia’s war on Ukraine, are also raising tough questions for a historically pacifist nation whose biggest export market is governed by Beijing, but whose national security has long depended on Washington. 

This week, we devote our entire Stephanomics podcast to Japan, delving into its economy, its ties to China and the US and its efforts to stay on friendly terms with both. First, reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us the noisy scene inside the Toyosu Market, the world’s largest wholesale fish market. There, businesses face a dilemma: costs of materials are rising at a 9.1% clip, but consumer inflation is running at a more modest 3.6%. So, wholesale fish merchants, restaurants and other businesses are eating some of the inflation for fear of alienating a Japanese public that’s used to prices falling, not rising.

“We really wonder whether customers will keep coming back if we raise prices,” one businessman tells Nohara. That reluctance to boost prices, though, is creating a bit of a vicious cycle for Japan. Worker wages are stuck and won’t rise until businesses can pass along more of their rising prices to consumers. However, consumers won’t accept higher prices until they see higher wages. For now, the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance are trying to force wages up by keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels—even if the yen craters, too.

Next, host Stephanie Flanders, who’s in Tokyo this week, chats with reporter Isabel Reynolds about the way Japan is being drawn into global conflicts and its delicate efforts to keep everyone happy. This week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ordered an increase in defense spending that could strangely put his country almost on par with Russia. Meantime, Japan finds itself caught between its loyalty to the US and its crucial trading ties with China, Reynolds says. The US has been signaling it’s getting more aggressive toward China on trade issues, and while Japan has been reluctant to take sides, it may be forced to follow America’s lead if things escalate, she says. 

Finally, Flanders chats with Takehiko Nakao, a former senior official with the Ministry of Finance, about whether Japan is finally ready to shed its years-long deflation, as well as the nation’s need to ensure its own national security in light of the threat from China while also maintaining economic ties with Beijing. 

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Europe might just avoid what had been a widely predicted, Kremlin-induced energy crisis this winter, thanks to a surprisingly large stock of natural gas. But are the continent’s efforts to conserve giving a bah humbug to the holidays? Some of Europe’s best-loved Christmas markets are shutting their holiday lights earlier to save electricity or even banning them outright. Even worse, Frankfurt’s famous market is—perish the thought—forgoing heated toilets.

In this episode we delve into the energy challenges facing Europe as it works to replace natural gas cut off by Russia. First, reporter Bastian Benrath visits with retailers in Frankfurt’s famed Christmas market, where cutbacks to the city’s large holiday light displays threaten to sap some of its magic and give shoppers less reason to turn out. Other cities like Zurich, Berlin and London also have trimmed holiday display hours or reduced their size, and Paris is turning off the lights at the Eiffel Tower an hour early.

What really annoys retailers about this Scrooge-like behavior is that keeping the lights on may expend less energy than powering and heating the markets themselves. As Benrath reports, “in many places, cutting the Christmas lights might actually be more about saving face than actually about saving energy.”

In a follow-up discussion, host Stephanie Flanders talks European energy with Maeva Cousin, Bloomberg’s senior euro-area economist, and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas. The continent appears ready to confront the winter without mass shortages of gas, thanks in part to forecasts that were overly pessimistic, reduced demand from China and relatively mild European weather, Cousin says. Still, Blas warns that the continent isn’t out of the woods yet. In the short term, a harsher winter than forecast could still lead to blackouts. In the long term, Europe’s high energy costs could persuade companies to relocate to places with cheaper costs, like Texas.

Finally, reporter Colum Murphy reflects on the protests over China’s “Covid zero” policy. The plight of residents stuck in lockdowns there has come into stark focus. While images of jubilant crowds at World Cup soccer games flicker on TV screens, “at home in China the people are living in strict conditions,” Murphy says. And for President Xi Jinping, the protests are a huge embarrassment, coming “just after receiving the backing of the whole party.”

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Back in the days when bands like Led Zeppelin or The Who toured America, teens lined up overnight at ticket booths, hoping for great seats when the window opened. As time went on, the queue moved to the telephone and ultimately online. All the while, one company increased its grip on the live-event market. That company is Ticketmaster. 

But that could change thanks to Taylor Swift. Having waited years to see her live again, millions of fans were blocked by a combination of crushing demand, technical breakdown and the ascendance of bot-buyers who funnel tickets to a secondary market that charges sky-high prices. (In the 20th century, they were called scalpers.) As reporter Augusta Saraiva explains, this consumer calamity infuriated Swift’s fans, many of whom are swimming in cash saved up during the pandemic and desperate to spend it, regardless of the shaky economic landscape. This strange state affairs already has a name: “Swiftonomics.”

Lawmakers have seized on the popular outrage, uniting with fans against what many have long alleged to be Ticketmaster’s monopoly power. Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg industry analyst Eleanor Tyler about how the debacle, and its growing political exploitation, may be the tipping point for increased antitrust regulation that finally breaks Ticketmaster’s spell over the live event marketplace.

Then we dive headlong into a different thicket: how recycling doesn’t work as advertised. Consumers may feel better about mass consumption because there’s a blue bin for everything, but the hard truth is they’re fooling themselves. Most of the plastics, clothes and other items they seek to recycle wind up in landfills or dumped on the developing world. Along the shoreline of Accra, Ghana, what locals call “dead white people’s clothes” can be found in piles up to six feet high. 

Reporter Natalie Pearson explains that while fast-fashion chains like H&M and Zara encourage recycling, only a small fraction of their clothes will ever be remade into new items. Bloomberg recently surveyed the problem in Accra, where some 40% of the imported clothes end up as trash, and in the Indian state of Gujarat, where roughly one-third have no use. Finally, Flanders sits down with Bennington College Senior Fellow and visiting faculty member Judith Enck, a US Environmental Protection Agency official during the Obama administration, to discuss just how broken the recycling system is, and how it could be made to work better.

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Buckle up. Global financial leaders warn that the current era of expensive money is likely to stick around for at least another year, and maybe longer. Easing up on interest rates now would only embed high inflation in people's assumptions, and "that's where it becomes very long-lasting," says former UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber.

In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, three experts in banking and monetary policy share with host Stephanie Flanders why central bankers will be battling inflation in the short term as well as the long. In the US, there's little doubt the Federal Reserve will bump up interest rates again this year, says Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "For 2023, the question is more about how long are you going to keep these rates at the levels that they've moved them to. And we see a need to keep it at over 4% for all of 2023 to be able to bring inflation down durably,'' Gopinath said.

Globally, changes in the supply chain and the transition to a greener economy will drive up energy costs and could lead to structurally higher inflation, said Davide Serra, chief executive of asset manager Algebris Investments. As usual, the poorest are most in jeopardy. Already, about 60% of low-income countries are in high-debt distress, Gopinath said, and while a systemic debt crisis has yet to materialize, she warns these are "very risky times."

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Investors were floored when China started cracking down on homegrown tech giants like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in late 2020. They shouldn't have been, argues Kendra Schaefer, an expert on Chinese tech policy with Beijing-based Trivium China. For almost 20 years, the Chinese Communist Party has struggled to understand how its sprawling internet and financial technology industry fit with a socialist market economy, and things finally boiled over two years ago, Schaefer says. Increasingly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his party want technology firms to meet "state-directed goals," she says.

In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, we dive into the complexities of Chinese economic policy. One of the more recent challenges for investors and foreign businesses operating in China is a lack of good intelligence, Schaefer tells host Stephanie Flanders. There's been an "exodus" of Chinese policy experts since the pandemic began, she says, partly because of restrictions on travel inside the country. Schaefer herself recently relocated to the US from Beijing.

For now, many foreign companies have been confused by recent aggressive moves out of Beijing and powerless to do much about it. While investors were befuddled by new regulations on China's big tech firms, behind the scenes the country was increasingly uneasy with their power and apparent lack of interest in Communist Party objectives. Instead of "disrupting pizza delivery," tech giants should focus more on developing high-end computer chips, Schaefer says, citing the opinion of party leaders. 

Meantime, manufacturers have seen production grind to a halt at the slightest spread of Covid-19. For sure, some companies have talked about mitigating risk and diversifying outside of China. However, leaving altogether is hardly an option for many. Duplicating the country's supply chain would take 10 years, so "people are just doing their best to hedge their bets," Schaefer says.

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Over the past few decades, the world's economic and political leaders were spoiled by relatively low inflation and minimal borrowing costs, a supercharged economy in China driving demand and generally modest geopolitical tension. But as we know, all of that has changed. With inflation soaring, Chinese growth slowing and Russia waging war on Ukraine, Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik contends the pillars that long underpinned rising prosperity have shifted.

This week, the podcast is coming to you daily from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, where corporate and political leaders are discussing vexing issues like sustainability and the fragile supply chain. In today's edition, Orlik shares with host Stephanie Flanders why the current challenges will play out over years, instead of months. First, even if inflation in the US ticks down to 4% by mid-2023, that will still be "way outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone," Orlik says. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he'll raise interest rates until inflation subsides, but the risk is he'll ease up if unemployment gets uncomfortably high, Orlik warns, since any improvements in inflation could reverse.

The second pillar, China's previous annual growth rate of almost 10%, may settle in closer to 4%, and even that could be too optimistic, says Orlik. Finally, while Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden lowered the temperature between the two nations on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, left unresolved was the US effort to restrict the sale semiconductors to Chinese customers. 

On that note, during one of the forum's sessions Tuesday Senior Minister of Singapore Tharman Shanmugaratnam urged restraint on the part of both the US and China. Tariffs do no one any good, he said, while nations should protect their own national security without trying to limit other nations' economic growth. ``You can't prevent China from emerging as a major player in the global economy and in the global technology space," Shanmugaratnam told Flanders.

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Having children isn't only expensive, but it also puts a serious dent in your social calendar. Data show many single, childless women in the US are traveling freely and earning more money, including more than their single, childless male counterparts. But when too many people forgo kids, it raises questions about the future workforce and whether it will be able to adequately fund benefits for the elderly. Increasingly, nations are grappling with how to encourage people to have children while enabling them to live their lives as they wish.

In this episode, we explore the subject of birth rates from two very different angles, and from opposite ends of the globe. In the US, editor Molly Smith shares the story of Anna Dickson, a 42-year-old from New York who's traveled to Alaska, Switzerland and Anguilla in the past year. It's something she probably couldn't have done if she had kids, she says. Likewise, a growing number of American women are making the same choice to forgo children, and they're reaping economic benefits. As of 2019, single women with no children had an average of $65,000 in wealth, or $8,000 more than similarly situated men, Smith finds.

Stephanie later chats about birth rates and government policy with Isabel Sawhill, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. The total cost of raising a child in the US now exceeds $300,000, and that doesn't even include soaring college costs, Sawhill says. Despite those expenses, Congress has been lax in passing legislation to support families, she says. What's more, states with the most restrictive abortion laws also tend to be ones with the weakest social safety nets.

In the Philippines, reporter Siegfrid Alegado says there's a different dilemma, given that it has one of the highest birth rates in Southeast Asia. Women there have 2.5 children on average, which is far higher than in many advanced nations. This threatens to exacerbate poverty among the urban poor and in the countryside, Alegado says. And any effort by new President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to encourage women to use family planning faces a distinct challenge, namely that the largely Catholic country has historically frowned on contraception. 

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Voters in Brazil just took a leftward turn in electing former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, ousting the far-right populist incumbent. Next week, polls show US voters may move in the opposite direction, dealing a blow to Democratic President Joe Biden and his party.

This week's Stephanomics episode explores the economic and political winds in two of the world's largest nations. First, Flanders talks US midterms with Anna Wong, Bloomberg's chief US economist, and reporter Nancy Cook. Overall, the US economy is functioning better than it appears to those focusing on inflation, with a strong job market and high balances in bank accounts, Wong says. Yet, high prices have a way of making consumers feel things are gloomier than they are, and that's not good for Democrats. And if Republicans seize control of one or both houses of Congress, Cook notes that will spell the end of meaningful economic legislation from the Biden administration until the end of the term.

Next, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro explains the challenges facing Lula after his defeat of Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil has seen progress this year on inflation, with rates falling from 12% to an expected 5.6% next month. However, economists note the improvement is less impressive than it seems, generated in large part by tax cuts instead of real changes in the economy. Meantime, the new president will be under pressure to deliver on campaign promises to cut taxes for the poor, increase them for the rich and provide a minimum income level for the most needy.

In a follow-up discussion, analyst Richard Back of XP Investimentos in Brazil shares with host Stephanie Flanders why he thinks Lula is likely to propose moderate economic policies, despite his progressive reputation. With many acolytes of Bolsonaro still in Brazil's National Congress, Lula knows he cannot be "radical or revengeful," Back says. International investors see the new president as someone who "will make distortions, but he's not the guy that will blow everything."

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Ahead of next month's crucial US midterm elections, Democrats would usually be counting on the support of labor unions, historically a key constituency for the party. And unions are having a moment in this late pandemic era, with successful organizing drives among Starbucks baristas and Amazon warehouse workers. But despite President Joe Biden's efforts to woo them, many union members are showing a lack of enthusiasm for Democrats that may undercut the party's bid to keep control of both houses of Congress.

In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, reporter Katia Dmitrieva provides a dispatch from the traditional union stronghold of Macomb County, Michigan. Biden, who promised to be the most pro-union president ever, has followed through to an extent by regularly touting their importance while creating a labor task force, enacting its proposals and helping secure a deal that may yet avert a damaging railroad strike. Still, some workers in this Detroit-area county say they hoped for more. Democratic efforts to raise the federal minimum wage struck out in a sharply divided Congress, and the PRO Act, legislation to strengthen collective bargaining, has stalled. In the words of one Starbucks barista, who helped unionize her store, the Biden administration's efforts have been "a little bit performative."

Then Stephanie speaks to University of California, Berkeley economist Bradford DeLong about his new book, Slouching Towards Utopia. DeLong argues that the 20th century essentially started in 1870, a technological turning point after which production was rapid enough that (at least theoretically) we could bake a large enough economic pie to provide for all. The fact that, in the real world, everyone doesn't have enough is a symptom of our failure to distribute goods and services equitably, DeLong observes. Getting in the way of that goal as well are human foibles including a desire to distribute wealth to their children and a related disdain for inheritance taxes, as well as abhorrence of people who appear to be getting a free ride, he says.

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As Xi Jinping embarks on his third term as China's president, the world's most populous nation has lost some of the zeal for growth, experimentation and global collaboration that defined it two decades ago. In its place, both Xi and China are focusing on security above everything else, argues Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Today, Beijing is "fighting with the US, fighting against pandemics, trying to secure what it has rather than open up and explore new opportunities," Orlik says. Everyone else is left trying to figure out how to cope with this less-freewheeling China.

On this week's Stephanomics, we delve into the present and future of China's relations with the rest of the world following the Chinese Communist Party Congress. First, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Orlik about what a third term of Xi means. It's arguable China isn't in immediate danger of slipping into bad governance, and that--for all the economic turmoil of its "zero Covid" policy--China has done a better job protecting citizens from the coronavirus than the West. In the long term, though, there are dangers. Vital positions in China's central bank or its Ministry of Finance could be staffed by old-guard bureaucrats instead of dynamic reformers, Orlik says.

Next, reporter Carolynn Look and editor James Mayger share how Europe's own relationship with China is fraying over reports of Chinese human rights abuses and anger over aggressive trade tactics against Lithuania. Still, for all the handwringing, few European companies show signs of scaling back investments in China. Finally, we reflect on an alarming speech by Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson at a recent Group of 30 conference. He argues that, while everyone's worried that the 2020s will see a repeat of the inflationary 1970s, we may be fortunate if that's all that happens, given the prospect of economic calamity and global war.

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If the combination of inflation, Russia’s war on Ukraine and a surging dollar don’t send the world into recession, disastrous policy mistakes surely could. That’s the increasingly gloomy outlook among some who gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Institute of International Finance. One pessimist, Martin Wolf, a longtime columnist at the Financial Times, predicts a deep downturn in Europe, one that includes the UK. That country has been dragged down by a leadership team Wolf calls “mad, bad and dangerous.”

This week’s episode delves into the dicey economic and political climates enveloping three continents. First, Wolf joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss Europe at the IIF’s annual membership meeting, where he unloads on UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng for their panned efforts to enact tax cuts—which created chaos in the British bond market and sent the pound plunging. Beyond the UK’s borders, natural gas prices that have soared thanks to the Kremlin’s war will pull Europe into contraction, Wolf said. But there’s a brighter scenario, according to Flanders. If it’s a mild winter and natural gas prices fall faster than expected, Europe could end up with too much gas.

Then, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro details how politicians across Latin America are struggling to avoid protests over inflation that’s reached double digits in some nations. Already, people have blocked highways in Panama, rioted in Ecuador and demanded state assistance for the poor in Peru.

Finally, we hear from reporter Colum Murphy, who reveals how the Chinese Communist Party tries to keep foreign journalists in the dark. The party holds its congress in Beijing next week for the first time in five years, and Murphy will be looking for the smallest clues that party members still support President Xi Jinping. In a country where few dare speak out, Murphy said reporters glean what they can from the level of applause to Xi’s speech, which lines get the most attention and whether the party gives him another official title to the three he already holds.

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The UK's politics and policies have always been a bit quirky. But international investors have long trusted that the country would, in the words of prominent British economist Malcolm Barr, see itself from point A to point B. Lately, those investors could be forgiven for calling that premise into question. A series of unforced errors by new Prime Minister Liz Truss and her financial team have shaken confidence in Britain's leadership at a time when its public is reeling from soaring energy and mortgage costs.

In the first episode of this season's Stephanomics podcast, we deliver a triple dose of UK turmoil. First, Bloomberg UK political editor Kitty Donaldson details Truss's arguably terrible debut. Donaldson spent the week at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, where some of the prime minister's fellow Tories are "hopping mad" after tax cuts proposed by Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng spooked financial markets and sent the pound to its lowest level since 1985. In an embarrassing U-turn, Truss had to scrap her plans to cut the 45% tax rate on top earners.

Next, Stephanie Flanders talks with Barr about what the market chaos means for the UK (both now and later) as well as its trading partners and investors. Head of European economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., Barr argues that some of the guardrails that have steered British politicians toward sound, orthodox economic decisions in the past have fallen away. An independent central bank, a proficient civil service and functioning parliamentary oversight have all been undermined to the point that it's "hard to imagine a similar set of errors having been made by any incoming administration over the last 15 to 20 years."

Finally, Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray takes us to Liverpool, where dockworkers say they're missing out as the port city bustles with tourists and expensive new soccer stadiums. They're staging a strike to demand higher pay amid soaring inflation and interest rates, and for now, have the sympathy of the public.

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Young people unable to buy homes because of stratospheric price increases are cheering the downturn in some housing markets around the world. But they'd better be careful what they wish for: Frothy housing prices, empty office buildings and even a refusal to pay mortgages by many Chinese have the potential to turn a global economic slowdown into something much worse.

In this season's final episode, we explore the confounding real estate market, where prices in many countries have reached unsustainable levels despite a global pandemic. First, reporter Maria Paula Mijares Torres relates the struggle many low- and middle-income Americans face following rent increases averaging 14% nationwide, with some places like Miami seeing a 41% spike. About 8.4 million people in the US are behind on rent payments, and with the end of many Covid-induced eviction moratoriums, advocates for the poor fear a surge of people will be made homeless.

Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah crunches price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to determine which housing markets are the frothiest. Topping his list are New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Australia and Canada, with the US coming in seventh. While the subprime-fueled financial crisis is still fresh in some people's minds, better mortgage quality and the growth of fixed-rate mortgages means "there is some hope that we are not going to see the worst of this," Shah says.

Stephanie talks global real estate risks with John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of "The Fearful Rise of Markets." The commercial real estate market is "probably the single greatest cause for concern," Authers says, particularly in New York. For developers there, a sharp increase in the supply of commercial real estate in recent years, a steep drop in occupancy rates and rising borrowing costs have created a very tricky situation. Meantime, he sees China navigating its way around a domestic property crisis without triggering a global financial crisis, though not without risks.

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Despite all the highfalutin advances in automation and just-in-time inventory, Covid-19 has still managed to upend the world's supply chains. But all this pandemonium may be a dress rehearsal for future chaos, courtesy of challenges such as political unrest and the climate crisis, warns one author who's tracked the global flow of goods.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the problems plaguing the retailers, warehouse operators, truckers and shippers who labor to get widgets from factory floors to your doorstep. First, reporter Augusta Saraiva explores why everything from baby formula to Teslas can still be hard to find in the US, even though the epic West Coast container ship backlog has eased. In part, consumers are to blame since they've continued buying at levels far beyond what analysts had expected, given 9.1% inflation and fears of a potential recession.

Meantime, importers are fighting over scarce capacity on trucks, ships and in warehouses, creating additional backlogs. One company was so spooked by delays last year that by April it already had 600 containers of artificial Christmas trees waiting at the Port of New York and New Jersey. In a follow-up discussion, Stephanie talks about how supply chains got so fragile with Christopher Mims, author of "Arriving Today," which traces advances allowing for same-day delivery. 

Mims argues that efficient supply chains that were developed before Covid-19 struck weren't battle-tested for pandemics, wars and extreme weather. While unionized years ago, truckers today are largely non-unionized, and as a result earn about two-thirds less in real terms than truckers did 40 years ago. They are also burning out quickly from 14-hour days, Mims says. Alternately, a unionized longshoremen workforce has resisted automation, creating some of the world's least efficient ports. Eventually, supply chains will have to shorten, Mims says, with corporations bringing production in-house or nearshoring it to neighboring countries.

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Dispirited by pandemic lockdowns and a massive real estate crisis, today’s young Chinese workers are dreaming less about becoming super-rich entrepreneurs and more about the workaday lives of bureaucrats. Their new distaste for private-sector jobs has caught the attention of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which is trying to change opinions and recruit for private-sector manufacturing jobs that are going begging.

In this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Tom Hancock discusses the unrest brewing among China’s youth. Many have newly minted degrees and a growing number have embraced anti-capitalist idealism, exacerbating a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the jobs they actually want. Meantime, younger workers see the country’s state-owned enterprises as more stable than privately-owned ones amid Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, creating intense competition for public-sector jobs.

The upshot is the jobless rate among China’s youth is likely to hit 20%, which has alarmed President Xi Jinping’s government. Host Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about the outlook for the world’s biggest country. He says China likely has been overstating its growth for years, giving critics reason to question how big its economy actually is right now. But China’s leadership has proven it can develop that economy, and “it would be a big mistake for us to underestimate how big they will likely become in the next 10 or 20 years,” Orlik says.

And, Flanders also talks worker wages with Rachel Reeves, who as the UK’s Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer is the chief economic voice of the opposition Labour Party. It’s a risky topic to address since Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey got lambasted last winter for suggesting workers forgo seeking pay raises because they might be inflationary. Reeves wouldn’t say what a reasonable increase for workers would be, given ongoing discussions over pay by UK authorities, but suggested the trick to giving everyone a raise is boosting the economy. 

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The global appeal of Italy’s fashion, food and sports cars long ago proved that the country’s businesses have few equals when it comes to marketing abroad. But selling Italians themselves on the merits of the nation’s economy has been a bigger challenge. Italy’s politicians, central bankers and academics contend the global capital of style can’t reach its full potential until it persuades more of its own citizens to seek employment.

In this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” reporter Alessandra Migliaccio explores why 2.6 million Italians who could be looking for work aren’t. Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco discusses how the country has one of the lowest labor force participation rates in Europe, and that demographic trends aren’t likely to make things better. The number of Italians between 15 and 64 is expected to fall by 5 million over the next 15 years, with many of those remaining living in the nation’s economically disadvantaged South.

To be sure, other countries have seen workforce challenges throughout the pandemic. But Italy faces unique structural problems, Rosamaria Bitetti, an economist and lecturer at Luiss University in Rome, tells host Stephanie Flanders. First, Italians tend to spend more time in school and away from work, partly because the nation’s university system encourages students to linger, Bitetti said. Other challenges include a dearth of childcare providers and a growing elderly population that relies on younger generations for care.

Finally, economist Nouriel Roubini (nicknamed Dr. Doom for his often ominous predictions) lives up to his billing as he warns that the US, UK, euro zone and other advanced economies have little hope of avoiding recession. During a talk at the recent Qatar Economic Forum, Roubini said the combination of Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, a Chinese Covid-zero policy that’s hurting supply chains and loose monetary and fiscal policies suggests “a situation similar to the 70s.”

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The US Supreme Court’s decision last week to overturn the federal right to an abortion will have profound effects on American women. And while prime ministers and presidents of the UK, France, Belgium and New Zealand criticized the ruling as a setback for women’s rights, it’s actually part of what observers call a global retrenchment when it comes to gender equality.

In this week’s episode we explore the economic and societal fallout of the end of Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling holding that there is a Constitutional right to abortion, and how it fits with that worldwide trend. First, reporter Katia Dmitrieva shares the story of Jane, a Honduran immigrant living near Dallas who induced an abortion through pills she obtained from a friend through the mail, a practice prohibited in Texas even before last week’s decision. Jane (not her real name) answers phones for a construction company that doesn’t provide paid time off or health benefits. She has neither the time, nor money to care for a child. Reverend Daniel Kanter, senior minister at the First Unitarian Church of Dallas, has called efforts to restrict abortion “a war on the poor.”

Next, host Stephanie talks with Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, about how many countries are rolling back protections for women’s rights. Even developed nations with robust laws, including the US and UK, are seeing declining rates of prosecution for rapes, Woods says. Meantime, women politicians are often subjected to a level of personal attacks on social media rarely endured by their male colleagues.

Finally, reporter Claire Jiao shares how some Southeast Asian nations (among others) are trying to make the remote working trend more permanent. While many travelers would love to log into work from the beaches of Bali, they or their companies have feared the potential tax consequences. Jiao finds that Thailand is creating a long-term visa for remote workers that frees them from any tax obligations.

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As the US, UK and other wealthy nations grouse about the prospect of stagflation and risk of recession, people in some emerging nations are facing more perilous questions about how to find medicine to stay alive. A financial crisis gripping Sri Lanka’s 23 million people threatens to spread across the developing world and sweep up hundreds of millions more.

This week, we explore profoundly different economic climates. The first are emerging markets exemplified by Sri Lanka and burdened with pandemic-related debt, double-digit inflation and food shortages; the second is Qatar, an already rich petro-state that’s getting richer thanks to a global energy crisis. Reporter Sudhi Ranjan Sen surveys the chaos in Colombo, where protesters angry with 40% inflation and days-long waits for fuel and cooking gas are demanding the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In the words of one Sri Lankan woman who was unable to find pharmaceuticals for her parents: “It’s really hard to see somebody die without medicine, because you have the money, you don’t have a place to buy the medicine.” 

For the wider world, the risk is that Sri Lanka’s financial crisis spreads to other developing nations that also face high debt levels, rising interest rates and weakening currencies. Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg's chief emerging markets economist, counts five countries most at risk of following in Sri Lanka’s footsteps: Tunisia, El Salvador, Ghana, Ethiopia and Pakistan. Lenders to Sri Lanka stand to lose half of their investment, Daoud tells host Stephanie Flanders, but it’s unclear how the island nation will treat its debts to China. In the past, China has been unwilling to join multilateral agreements to write down debt. But what happens if other lenders forgive much of Sri Lanka’s debt, while the nation makes good on what it owes China?

Finally, correspondent Simone Foxman relays the remarkable turn of events in Qatar, which this week hosted the Qatar Economic Forum. Until very recently, analysts questioned the wisdom of Qatar’s plan to boost its liquefied natural gas exports by 60%, at a cost of $30 billion. Where analysts figured Qatar was overestimating demand, Russia’s war on Ukraine has European nations lining up for Qatari energy. Meantime, the Persian Gulf nation is readying its stadiums ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Doha, set for November and December. By one estimate, the nation has pumped $350 billion into badly needed infrastructure and other improvements ahead of the games.

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US inflation is at a 40-year high and the UK is effectively in recession as demand slows for Chinese-made goods. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, though addressing the British economy, could have been speaking for the whole world when he said in a recent interview that “we’re going to have a difficult period, and we’ve got to be absolutely clear with people it is going to be difficult, and the government cannot solve every problem.”

On the heels of a massive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, this week’s episode of “Stephanomics” tackles the bumper crop of trouble facing the globe’s central bankers—not to mention finance and trade ministers. First, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, who says the Fed’s 75 basis point hike in interest rates was necessary to help cool inflation, but it doesn’t address the root causes of spiraling prices. To do that, the Fed would have to persuade Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, Russia to stop blocking Ukraine’s wheat exports and Taiwan to produce more semiconductors.

What’s more, the Fed’s move is likely to boost borrowing costs for emerging nations and likely won’t prevent a US downturn, Orlik says. While it may duck one this year, a recession by 2023 “is going to be pretty hard to avoid.”

Next, correspondent Lizzy Burden discusses why the UK may want to brace for a sustained downturn rather than a short one. Consumer confidence has declined to levels last seen in the 1970s and the housing market is cooling. So even if Britain avoids two quarters of contraction, Burden says, “almost every other economic metric is screaming slowdown.”

Finally, reporter Enda Curran reports on how Chinese manufacturers are also feeling the pinch from inflation and rising interest rates faced by their US and European customers. While it hardly qualifies as a trade recession since consumers are still spending, Chinese manufacturers such as Prime Success Enterprises, a maker of pop-up swimming pools for dogs, warn that demand is drying up. 

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Much of the appeal of McDonald’s comes from the chain’s consistency. A cheeseburger in the US or a McSpicy Chicken in India should taste the same every time. But what if a business had wildly different outcomes depending on which leader was making decisions? Renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls this variability “noise,” and suggests controlling it is key to ensuring the best decisions get made.

In this week’s episode, Stephanie interviews Kahneman, a best-selling author and professor emeritus at Princeton University, and Olivier Sibony, a professor of strategy at HEC Paris, about their new book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.” (Their co-author is US legal scholar Cass Sunstein of Harvard Law School.) Kahneman and Sibony argue businesses often wrongly assume their decisionmakers will make similar judgments given similar circumstances. Kahneman relates an experiment he conducted with an insurance firm and dozens of its underwriters. It’s fair to predict underwriters would reach similar conclusions about a case’s risk and put a similar dollar value on it, right? Wrong. Kahneman found judgments often varied by 50%, or five times the divergence one would reasonably expect.

Silencing that noise often means adopting good decision “hygiene,” the authors said. Many job interviews start with employers having an initial impression and spending the rest of the interview justifying it. Instead, companies should use structured interviews with standard questions that might help disprove false impressions, Kahneman said. And while many firms use artificial intelligence to weed out job candidates, they’re likely doing themselves a disservice, Sibony said. Too often, the algorithms themselves are faulty, he said. “My worry is that companies are using this mostly to save time and money, not to actually improve the quality of their decisions,” Sibony said.

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It seems like things could hardly get worse for President Joe Biden, who faces 8.3% inflation, a baby formula shortage and, according to the latest Gallup poll, a 41% job approval rating. Not to mention managing a global face-off with Russia. But now it looks as though another crisis is forming in his backyard. The US is hosting the Summit of the Americas next week in Los Angeles, and Mexico and a few other Latin American nations are threatening to boycott, and even block any progress it might yield.

In this week's episode Mexico City reporter Maya Averbuch explains the fight over the summit, during which the White House plans to raise the fraught topic of immigration. A key conference holdout has been Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who says he'll stay away unless representatives of authoritarian governments in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua are invited. The US has refused, citing their undemocratic records. In turn, the leaders of other nations, including Guatemala and Honduras, have said they may skip the summit as well.

In a follow-up discussion, managing editor Juan Pablo Spinetto talks with Stephanie about the drama-filled history of these summits and whether Mexico's president will eventually attend. They also explain why there's a good chance rising interest rates in the US won't trigger a crisis in Latin America as they have so often in past. 

And we end the episode with some revealing research from the McKinsey Global Institute on what it says drives workers' "human capital," or their collective knowledge, skills and experience as measured by lifetime earnings. For all the fanfare over training and education, on-the-job experience accounts for at least half of gains in lifetime earnings, according to institute head Sven Smit. The more new jobs and experiences a worker accrues, the more their earnings will rise, he tells Flanders.

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While the world's multimillionaires and billionaires (and multibillionaires) ponder inflation and supply shortages in the Swiss Alps, they might get a better view from the dusty landscape of Midland, Texas. Residents of the oil town have lived through inflation around 10% or higher for six months. Even worse, the forces driving up prices there may take months or even years to unwind.

Bloomberg reporter Katia Dmitrieva takes listeners to that West Texas boom-and-bust community, home to the highest inflation rate among roughly 400 metropolitan areas tracked by Moody's Analytics. While there, she meets an excavation company owner who's run out of heavy-duty pickup trucks and bulldozers because of supply-chain shortages. Nurses are in such short supply that a local health-care company is paying $280 an hour to get them on contract. And the line of cars waiting at the West Texas Food Bank is longer than it's been since the worst days of the ongoing pandemic.

Back in Davos, host Stephanie Flanders chats about deglobalization with economist Richard Baldwin, a professor at Geneva's Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. He's skeptical that trade actually is fragmenting, arguing that China is the "OPEC of industrial inputs" and that "you can't shut off OPEC." Finally, Flanders talks global commerce at the World Economic Forum with the head of the World Trade Organization and the European Union trade commissioner, as well as officials with the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry and US-based logistics firm Flexport.

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Touted as a potential prime minister not long ago, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak's star has been falling fast of late. Some of the blame can be placed on inflation hovering at a 40-year high and embarrassing headlines about his rich wife's taxes. To resurrect his political career, Sunak may want to help Britons out of their financial funk while persuading them he's not disastrously out of touch. 

Sunak tells Stephanie how the UK government is trying to alleviate the pain inflicted by 9% inflation. It's providing about £350 ($431) in energy bill discounts to families while also providing families with about £100 in relief by cutting fuel duties. Still, the efforts may be too little too late, as the average family is seeing a £2,100 increase in its cost of living, according to Bloomberg estimates. 

It didn't help matters that Sunak's wife, Akshata Murthy, daughter of an Indian billionaire, was forgoing paying UK taxes on her overseas earnings, which while technically legal is arguably terrible politics. "I do think part of being a good husband is not presuming to dictate to my wife what to do, because she's an independent person and I support her decisions,'' Sunak says. 

Also, in a discussion from Bloomberg's New Economy Gateway Latin America forum in Panama City, Panama, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet speaks about troubling abuses in Venezuela, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Haiti, as well as efforts to hold Vladimir Putin accountable for war crimes in Ukraine. Finally, she calls the potential end of federal abortion rights in the US a "massive setback for women's rights."

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The old axiom about the sins of the father being visited upon their children got a shocking rebuttal this week, when Ferdinand Marcos Jr. won a landslide victory in the Philippines's presidential election. Whether Marcos will embrace progressive economic and social values or take after his father, the late dictator and kleptocrat Ferdinand Marcos, is anyone's guess. 

Singapore-based Bloomberg Opinion columnist Daniel Moss explains how the younger Marcos deftly sidestepped press interviews and avoided revealing any policy preferences during his campaign. That ambiguity and a strong social media strategy helped to "if not erase, then dilute the memory of his father's period for a huge chunk of voters,'' Moss tells host Stephanie Flanders. Marcos comes into power at a precarious time. The Philippine economy has been far more robust than those of its neighbors, but its embrace of Chinese investment could backfire if China's economy continues to decline.

In a second segment, Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist, Anna Wong, explains how China's slowdown might provide at least a little relief to the US's inflation woes. And, Rome-based economy reporter Alessandra Migliaccio takes listeners to bucolic Trevinano, Italy, where local leaders hope an injection of money from the European Union will help turn the hamlet into a center for tourists and artisans and stem years of depopulation.

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Persistently higher inflation and interest rates are probably in the offing as the world transitions to a greener economy. That’s hardly a selling point for politicians pushing climate-friendly policies, but it’s one they’ll have to cozy up to, says Isabel Schnabel, an executive board member of the European Central Bank. Unfortunately, she adds, before politicians will show enough urgency toward the threat of global warming, “it really seems that bad things have to happen.”

On this week’s episode, Schnabel tells Stephanie about the financial consequences of the green transition, as the world moves away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. Eventually, she sees energy costs from solar, wind and other renewable sources falling below today’s prices for oil, gas and coal. But in the interim, people can expect traditional energy prices to rise as producers have less and less incentive to invest in fossil fuels. There’s also likely to be a spike in lithium, copper and nickel prices as green energy companies expand, Schnabel says. Finally, the massive investment needed from governments and the private sector to make the transition happen will probably lead to higher interest rates.

Still, procrastinating isn’t an option. “Waiting makes everything much worse, much more costly in economic terms,” Schnabel says. In a related report, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Jonathan Levin shares how people in Miami don’t seem to be heeding the looming threat posed by the climate crisis. Despite rising sea levels, the tourist mecca’s real estate market is soaring and buyers seldom see disclosures about future flood risk.

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It’s hard to imagine a more chaotic world than the one we’re in right now—what with Russia’s war on Ukraine, a Covid-19 pandemic that won’t quit and the lockdowns spreading across China as a result. Now, add to the mix a debt crisis that’s threatening to cripple emerging markets. In the words of a former International Monetary Fund official earlier this month, “We can see this train wreck coming towards us.”

Washington-based reporter Eric Martin explores a burgeoning economic crisis in the developing world, one exacerbated by the debt loads assumed by low-income nations as they try to cope with the coronavirus. In Tunis, a mother of two children relates how she comes away empty-handed when out searching for sugar and oil; and in Rio de Janeiro, a market vendor shares his struggle to buy vegetables in a nation with 12% inflation. All told, 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the World Bank. 

In a follow-up discussion on the crisis, Tim Adams, chief executive of the Institute of International Finance, tells host Stephanie Flanders about the particular risks facing Turkey and Egypt, both heavily dependent on food imports and reeling from fallout from the war. Finally, in a dispatch from France, reporters share why President Emmanuel Macron has precious little time to celebrate his victory over far-right opponent Marine Le Pen.

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When visiting El Salvador, be sure to bring sunscreen, a long-lens camera to memorialize its bountiful biodiversity and … Bitcoin. But have some U.S. dollars on hand just in case local merchants don’t accept it.

On this week’s episode, we dive into the disparate ways in which global leaders approach digital currencies, from the Salvadoran embrace to the tentative exploration by central banks. Tiny El Salvador, population 6.5 million, was the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender, providing a test case for its widespread use. Bloomberg reporter Michael McDonald filed a dispatch from the Central American nation after testing Bitcoin at various restaurants, rental car agencies and street vendors. While some transactions went through just fine, McDonald reports, many Salvadoran merchants have sworn off crypto and are sticking with the country’s other legal tender, the U.S. greenback.

Elsewhere, Stephanie finds central bankers and economists to be more circumspect about whether and how to create central bank digital currencies. Such crypto would be regulated by a country’s central bank and theoretically offer price stability. In a discussion sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements, a central banker from Sweden, the chief executive of Santander Bank and a Yale University finance professor weigh in on how to protect consumers while exploring this alternative form of payment.

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Last year, Larry Summers famously shot down one of the Federal Reserve's favorite buzzwords, "transitory." This year, he's taking aim at "soft landing."

The Harvard University professor, former Treasury secretary and paid Bloomberg contributor says a combination of high inflation and low unemployment historically has spawned a recession. So, he's skeptical that the Fed can chart a path that will see the country out of its inflationary funk without causing an economic downturn. Once again, Summers is more pessimistic than his peers, with economists pegging the chance of recession in the next year at just 27.5% in a recent Bloomberg survey.

This week, Summers shares his thoughts on why the Fed needs to be more willing to acknowledge what he calls its monetary policy failures. He also comments on why he thinks some recent Biden administration moves to ease prices increases will be ineffectual, and about why he thinks Americans need to sacrifice more in order to punish Russia for the "worst threat in 75 years of naked aggression."

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We may live in a global economy, but beyond the war in Ukraine, what's front-of-mind for policymakers in the U.S., Europe and China is very different. For China it’s Covid-19; for Europe, it’s the price of energy; and for the U.S., it's inflation. 

In the first episode of the new season, Stephanie Flanders takes us on a tour of the world economy, opening a window on the top concerns in all three regions. Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik reveals what’s behind his growth forecasts and how geopolitical tensions may affect globalization. Senior Reporter Shawn Donnan visits Indiana, where the red hot jobs market has laid bare the reality of finding workers for U.S. factories, and the perks needed to get them in the door.

In Europe, reporters Carolynn Look and Jana Randow explore how Russia's invasion is overturning long-held views on both economic and foreign policy. And finally, Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran turns his gaze to his long-time home of Hong Kong, and questions its future path amid increasingly aggressive interventions by Beijing. 

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With his poll numbers falling, U.S. President Joe Biden is under pressure to do something—anything—to get inflation under control. That’s led his administration to scrutinize the prices you pay at the grocery store, even if some critics argue alleged price-gouging by consumer products giants is a convenient bogeyman.

This week’s episode dives into the debate around corporate consolidation and whether it’s giving too much power to those companies. First, Bloomberg editor Molly Smith visits a New Jersey butcher shop where the owner suspects greedy multinational firms are behind the doubling of prices for some cuts of meat. The companies are pleading innocent, blaming instead labor shortages and soaring demand. But Bill Baer, a former antitrust chief at both the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission, sides with the butcher. He tells host Stephanie Flanders that some companies in concentrated industries are boosting prices well beyond just covering their extra costs.

Finally, Rome-based reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reports on the “Groundhog Day” nature of the Italian government, with its long history of cyclical political crisis, salvation, infighting and crisis again. With Prime Minister Mario Draghi potentially leaving his post to become Italy’s next president, a more ceremonial role, many worry it won’t be long until the cycle begins again. 

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When facing an economic crisis, the Fed's playbook normally skews toward juicing the economy too much rather than too little. After all, in the last go-round in 2007, being too stingy might have helped trigger a depression. Fifteen years later though, America's central bankers face the opposite problem: they need to move fast to cool inflation.

That's one of the takeaways from a panel discussion among economists this week, moderated by Stephanie. With U.S. inflation at 7%, the Fed needs to do more than expected, said Bill Dudley, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and senior adviser to Bloomberg Economics. Dramatically raising interest rates by a half-point in March is worth a look, Dudley said, though unlikely to happen. 

Meantime, Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong explains why U.S. workers, who've gone missing lately, are likely to rejoin the labor force soon. And, chief global economist Tom Orlik shares why President Xi Jinping isn't about to let China's economy implode while he seeks to cement lifetime power. Finally, on a lighter note, reporter David Hood shares everyone's frustrations with the IRS, where customer service is so bad that some tax professionals are hiring robots to wait in line for them.

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Closed schools. Empty shelves. Workers out sick. Almost two years after Covid-19 overturned the U.S. economy, "it's like deja vu all over again,'' in the words of baseball great and eminent wordsmith Yogi Berra. This week, we dive into how the omicron variant is likely to disrupt plans across America this winter. But we also explore how another country is bouncing back, as Stephanie chats with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire about his nation's robust economic comeback. 

But first, senior reporter Shawn Donnan gets a firsthand look at omicron's disruption at a Washington-area pizzeria. He explains why one economist likens the current infection surge to the "mother of all winter storms," one that cancels flights and causes supermarket shortages of everything from chicken to tofu. 

Next, we size up French President Emmanuel Macron's reelection chances this spring and a campaign centered on the nation's humming economy. Le Maire tells Flanders that France's employment rate, its highest in 50 years, is a sign of Macron's success. Paris-based economics reporter Will Horobin shares why the nation's economic recovery may sway France's voters more than its culture-war clashes. 

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With shortages at the grocery store and not enough people willing to work, 2022 is starting to look a lot like 2020. But beneath the ugly exterior, the world's economies have learned to cope with Covid's fallout, and the supply chain debacle in particular. One country is even thriving. 

In the first episode of the new year, we offer two fairly optimistic assessments. Bloomberg Senior Editor Brendan Murray shares with Stephanie Flanders how companies are adapting to the fast-spreading omicron variant and finding ways to function as more workers fall ill. He also explains that the success of China's zero tolerance policy may determine the length of the supply chain crisis.

We then travel to Mexico and the Chihuahuan Desert, where U.S. companies can't build factories fast enough. Tired of backups at Los Angeles-area ports and no-shows by American workers, manufacturers are moving production to the booming border town of Ciudad Juarez, Bloomberg manufacturing reporter Thomas Black reports, in a pandemic victory for Mexico's economy. 

Finally, Tokyo-based economics reporter Yoshiaki Nohara brings us a dispatch about the side effects of moving toward a greener future. Japan's leadership is trying develop its renewable energy industry by putting offshore wind farms near places like Iki island, off Japan's southwestern coast. But fishermen worry the noise and radio waves will drive away all the fish and cripple their industry.

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While still recovering from a coronavirus-induced recession, the U.S. may be rushing into a new downturn, this time thanks to inflation. Its economy faces no shortage of potential peril in 2022, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik says, with the Federal Reserve looking set to raise interest rates to fight rising prices, and as Congress seems unlikely to pass any more big spending bills. That's one of the takeaways from the Stephanomics global preview of 2022, in which Stephanie and a panel of experts look into their crystal balls for political and economic insights.

On the political front, French President Emmanuel Macron looks poised to win reelection in France next spring, but U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces a 40% chance of losing power, with "strong upward pressure" on that number, says Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. In the U.S., the fate of President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats may depend on inflation. With midterm elections on the horizon, they could be toast if it lingers too long, Bloomberg White House reporter Nancy Cook says.

Bloomberg Green editor Aaron Rutkoff sees Biden being powerless to improve U.S. emissions if he can't get the climate component of his Build Back Better agenda passed. And Orlik sees a novelty in the U.S.-China relationship, where China will probably go its own way and cut interest rates while the U.S. raises them.

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Economically at least, this holiday season feels a bit more like it belongs to Ebenezer Scrooge than Santa Claus. Amid a resurgent pandemic, there are shortages at the grocery store and the highest inflation in almost 40 years. So who better to sum up 2021 and forecast 2022 than Larry Summers, whose contrarian warnings about inflation have, at least at this point, largely proven accurate.

On this special holiday edition of Stephanomics, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary shares with host Stephanie Flanders how he arrived at his prediction that inflation would run higher than most everyone else expected, and why he fears "we are already reaching a point where it will be challenging to reduce inflation without giving rise to recession.” Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid Bloomberg contributor, also explains why he thinks "running the economy hot" is unlikely to help U.S. workers get a larger slice of the economic pie.

If inflation isn't enough to further dampen your spirits, Summers also tells Flanders why the nation may see a double whammy of recession and "secular stagnation," an unappealing mix of weak growth and persistently low interest rates.

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The so-called great resignation that’s confounding businesses in the West has a counterpart in a most unlikely place: China. This week, we offer a double dose of China’s “lie flat” movement, which is challenging the nation’s historic industriousness, as well as a glimpse into how America’s massive pandemic bailout juiced spending, especially among historically disadvantaged groups.

First, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock explains why many Chinese workers are suddenly whiling away the hours playing online games instead of toiling on the factory floor. After years of clocking in at 9 a.m. and clocking out at 9 p.m., six days a week, some are saying enough is enough. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Shuli Ren shares how President Xi Jinping isn’t amused with this trend. China’s leadership meanwhile is eager to stop pumping out so many university graduates, preferring instead to steer youth into vocational training and high-value manufacturing. The hope is to replicate Germany’s success.

Next, data reporter Andre Tartar unearths some revealing credit and debit card numbers to show how government payments during the pandemic boosted spending by Black Americans as much as 40% over 2019 levels. For a time at least, it shrunk the nation's persistent racial wealth gap. Finally, Hong Kong reporter Oanh Ha shares why some big food producers are betting that soon you may be getting some of your protein from crickets.

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It seems nothing can hurt the world's billionaires, not the worst pandemic in a century or a global recession. On this week's podcast, New York-based reporter Augusta Saraiva shares how the wealthiest only added to their fortunes as Covid-19 killed millions and flattened economies. Indeed, the super-rich accumulated $4.1 trillion just as 100 million of the planet's less fortunate fell into extreme poverty, according to estimates by the World Bank. Two years into the pandemic, some 2,750 billionaires now control 3.5% of the world's wealth -- almost double the holdings of the planet's poorest 50%, according to the Paris-based Global Inequality Lab. 

For those whose holdings don't reach ten figures but must still buy holiday gifts, Hong Kong-based economy reporter Enda Curran reports on the run-up in toy prices. He visits the maker of the Mighty Megasaur Megahunter T-Rex, who warns that consumers will shell out as much as 20% more this year because of the supply chain pinch. And finally, we provide a double dose of German politics as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down following 16 years in office. Berlin-based producer Aggi Cantrill reports from the German parliament while Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, explains why Germany's smooth transition of power is so different from the kind of rancor that has befallen the U.K. and U.S. 

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Initially, Jerome Powell said the highest inflation in decades was going to be "transitory." This week, the world's most powerful central banker said the nebulous term should be retired. Such is the high-stakes guessing game going on at the Federal Reserve and the world's central banks, which risk losing public confidence should inflation continue to prove less, well, transitory than expected.

This week, Stephanie delves into the messaging strategies of both central bankers and American corporations. First, Stephen King, a British economist and senior economic adviser to HSBC, suggests Powell's openness to cutting support for the U.S. financial system is meant to reestablish trust with the public by signaling a willingness to tackle inflation. Next, U.S.-based economics reporter Matt Boesler details the selective messaging of U.S. corporations, where profits are up 37% over last year despite rampant CEO complaints about wage inflation.

Finally, Geneva-based economics reporter Bryce Baschuk shares how the debate over intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines is a chance for the World Trade Organization to become relevant again.

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This week we unpack two very different challenges facing global leaders: the climate crisis and domestic violence. First, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry joins host Stephanie Flanders to share why he thinks the Glasgow Climate Pact is more than just words on paper. Among other achievements, Kerry notes that countries representing most of the world’s gross domestic product agreed to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade. Such cuts to this dangerous greenhouse gas (if they actually happen) would be a worthy accomplishment, even if rich nations have yet to fulfill a pledge to steer $100 billion a year to poorer nations facing the brunt of climate change.

As countries try to cut carbon, whether by a tax on emissions or other measures, leaders can limit the effects on inflation by adopting the measures sooner rather than later—when more drastic measures may be needed, Bloomberg’s senior Euro-area economist Maeva Cousin says.

Finally, Frankfurt-based economics reporter Carolynn Look shares the harrowing story of a German woman who escaped a violent partner and how some European companies are stepping forward to fight domestic abuse. They have a financial imperative as well as a moral one: gender-based violence is estimated by the European Institute for Gender Equality to cost the European Union economy 366 billion euros ($409 billion) a year.

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As if rising sea levels and fiercer cyclones weren't enough to worry about, the climate crisis is already cutting crop yields and could lead to widespread food shortages. That's the grave warning from the United Nations, which cautions that farmers won't meet a projected 50% increase in food demand by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions stay high. 

In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders tackles how to feed almost 10 billion people, the projected population of the planet in three decades. She turned to four leaders in global agriculture at Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Singapore for their insight. Technology will play a starring role, says Werner Baumann, chairman of German healthcare and agricultural giant Bayer AG. One Bayer project involves developing "short-stature" corn that resists stalk breakage and can be planted more densely. Cargill Inc. Chairman David MacLennan insists genetically modified organisms must be part of the solution, though GMOs are a controversial component of modern agriculture with significant opposition.

Finally, the panelists had some ideas regarding a tweet from the world's richest man, who last month offered to put up $6 billion if a UN official could prove the money would solve world hunger. Sara Menker, chief executive of agricultural analytics firm Gro Intelligence, suggests Elon Musk's money would be best spent creating a new financial institution to help modernize how many crops are traded. More fundamentally, Musk's money could build roads and crop storage facilities so farmers in developing nations could more easily get their products to market, says Alloysius Attah of Farmerline, which helps farmers embrace technology.

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One by one, countries that sought to stamp out Covid-19's spread with aggressive lockdowns are giving up zero-tolerance policies and learning to live with the virus. The most notable exception is China, which has decided to cling to the strategy. This week, the new attitude among many nations toward the coronavirus is getting a major test in Singapore, host of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum. The city-state recently experienced its biggest flare-up of the pandemic. 

In a special episode, Stephanie Flanders discusses Singapore's determination to move forward with the annual meeting of political, business and academic leaders with NEF editorial director Andrew Browne. In many ways, Singapore is intent on signaling it's open for business and that "remaining in lockdown just wasn't an option,'' Browne says. It's a gamble that others in the region are now taking, including New Zealand, which had been widely praised for containing the virus via severe restrictions on daily life, but hasn't been able to shake a steady infection rate.

For now, China is bucking the shift away from zero-tolerance. It's still willing to shut down at the slightest hint of an outbreak. However, the approach is coming at great cost to its economy, Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik tells Flanders. With China also facing threats from energy shortages and distress in its giant real estate industry, the country's traditional 6% or 7% annual growth could be halved in 2022, Orlik warns.

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Robots may replace us eventually, but for now Covid-19 has revealed just how desperate businesses are for workers of the human variety, and the broader economic consequences of that desperation. Companies are raising wages to attract talent, which in turn is helping boost inflation. It hit 6.2% in the U.S. last month and is running at 8.1% in Russia.

This week, Bloomberg reporters on two continents share how and why workers are slow to return to the office, factory and field. First, New York-based economics reporter Jill Shah explains the mystery behind the U.S. labor market, which at once has millions of unemployed and as many as 11 million openings. A few of the reasons? Some are waiting to land a remote job, others can't find childcare--and at least a few are trying to make a living trading cryptocurrency. 

Meantime, Moscow-based reporter Áine Quinn finds Russia's labor shortage is more easily explained. Many migrant workers from Central Asia left during the pandemic and didn't return, while the nation's high infection and death rates has many Russians staying home. Finally, Stephanie Flanders discusses the labor shortage's lasting effects with Jason Furman, a professor of the practice of economic policy at Harvard University. History tells us that many long-term unemployed will see their skills erode, leaving them at a competitive disadvantage, Furman says. 

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As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn’t enough to worry about, the world’s central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What’s more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends.

Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can’t be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won’t suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes.

Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations.

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More than a decade after the U.S. subprime crisis sparked the Great Recession, the threat of default at giant property developer Evergrande is raising the prospect that ghost towns of unoccupied homes could trigger a China property slump. 

On this week’s podcast, Hong Kong-based economics reporter Tom Hancock visits Evergrande to see how the company is trying to raise money and avoid default, including by trying to sell its headquarters. Guest host Tom Orlik delves into the issues with Rhodium Group Director Logan Wright and Bloomberg economist David Qu, a former financial stability regulator at the People’s Bank of China.

And finally, with Halloween just around the corner, Orlik ponders the scariest risks to the global economy with three Bloomberg economists: Anna Wong in Washington, Dan Hanson in London and Ziad Daoud in Dubai. 

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Central bankers are in a precarious spot in this chaotic pandemic economy. U.S. and U.K. consumers are grousing about rising prices and want some relief. But if government officials give it to them by raising interest rates, they may set back the recovery. It wouldn’t be the first time an errant move by a central bank triggered a recession.

This week, Stephanie Flanders helps listeners navigate the perils of monetary policy with David Wilcox, Bloomberg’s director of U.S. economic research, and Jamie Rush, Bloomberg's chief European economist. Wilcox, who formerly directed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s research division, explains why the central bank is more worried that inflation will run too low over the long term, and less worried about the current 5.4% annual rate. Meanwhile, Rush argues that the Bank of England “lost its nerve” and is taking too aggressive an approach in battling price increases. 

And, in a dispatch from Brazil, reporter Maria Eloisa Capurro shares why a new mobile payment app called Pix has overtaken the nation of 213 million people faster than expected, with everyone from small business owners to panhandlers accepting it.

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An old debate in economic circles is whether Europe’s strong safety net and worker protections are preferable to America’s more company-friendly labor rules. Now this classic argument is getting a fresh look, as economies on both sides of the Atlantic bounce back from pandemic work-stoppages. The U.K. and many euro-area nations adopted generous furlough programs that subsidized worker wages after Covid-19 halted business, and consequently kept workers on payrolls. The U.S., meantime, allowed companies to fire employees and then compensated the newly jobless workers with unemployment insurance payments.

This week Stephanomics podcast, Bloomberg reporters Carolynn Look in Frankfurt and Reade Pickert in Washington share the ups and downs of the European and American approaches to pandemic worker relief. By one measure, Europe’s furlough strategy proved superior: the euro area’s unemployment rate peaked at 8.6% last year, far lower than the U.S.’s 14.8% high. Finally, Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute for International Economics shares with Stephanie Flanders why he prefers the euro area’s approach. 

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On Breakthrough, a new series from the Prognosis podcast, we explore how the pandemic is changing our understanding of healthcare and medicine. We start with an examination of long Covid, a mysterious new illness that has stumped doctors attempting to treat symptoms that last for months and potentially years. It has changed the way hospitals work and forced healthcare officials to prepare for the next pandemic. Covid has also opened the door to revolutionary technology: messenger RNA vaccines. It’s a technology that never could have been proven so quickly outside the crucible of that first pandemic year, 2020, and it holds big implications for the future of medicine. Breakthrough launches on Oct. 19. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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This week, more than 60 container ships sat anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, waiting for their chance to unload as makers of everything from board games to bicycles sweat the looming holiday season. How did the world’s supply chains get so snarled? In the first episode of the new season of Stephanomics, reporters, manufacturers and economists across three continents explain the myriad problems plaguing shippers and offer a sobering prediction for the near future.

First, Enda Curran, Bloomberg’s chief economics correspondent in Asia, takes us to Hong Kong, where a coffee machine manufacturer must wait up to nine months for key electronic components to arrive. Meanwhile, the cost of moving one container from Asia to the U.S. has risen from $2,000 at the start of the pandemic to $20,000. Next, U.K.-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares why one of the world’s most advanced economies could find itself with a shortage of fuel and food this winter, a problem exacerbated by Brexit and new rules on worker visas.

Finally, Stephanie Flanders gets a taste of how U.S. restaurants are coping with a shortage of both supplies and waiters. Celebrity restaurateur Willie Degel and HSBC trade economist Shanella Rajanayagam explain why supply shortages haven’t improved despite the accelerating reopening of the global economy.

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The Federal Reserve is theoretically above the fray in Washington, but in these hyperpartisan times both Democrats and Republicans are keen to keep the chair's seat in their camp. As a result, President Joe Biden has a tough decision to make this fall in whether to retain the central bank's current chair, Jerome Powell, who happens to be a Republican. On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders delves into Biden's options with Bloomberg Fed reporters Craig Torres and Rich Miller. 

Also on this week's episode, Bloomberg senior editor Brendan Murray cruises the River Thames to share how the Port of London, once the world's busiest, is regaining some of its past glory. And, Zurich-based economics reporter Catherine Bosley, Dublin-based reporter Peter Flanagan and Dublin bureau chief Morwenna Coniam explain why European tax havens are so stressed over a proposed global minimum corporate tax rate.

That U.S. politicians are debating Powell's fate may be a bit perplexing, given his fans in both parties and that many contend he did a good job steering the economy through the first 18 months or the pandemic. Still, some progressives fault him for being too lax in regulating Wall Street and not vocal enough when it comes to income inequality and Black unemployment. If Biden sticks with Powell, it would be another signal that he's serious about bipartisanship. One possible maneuver discussed on this podcast: keep Powell in place, but fill three other board seats with candidates more to the left's liking. 

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In the not-too-distant future, every time you buy a cup of coffee, someone somewhere might know about it. That’s an unnerving prospect as private companies and central banks experiment with digital currencies. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders explores the promising and disconcerting future of Bitcoin and its brethren with Cornell University Senior Professor of Trade Policy Eswar Prasad, author of the forthcoming book “The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance.”

Also on this week’s episode, Singapore-based economics reporter Michelle Jamrisko and Hong Kong-based economist Chang Shu explain how low fertility rates in China and elsewhere in Asia are imperiling economies there. And Madrid-based economics reporter Jeannette Neumann visits Valencia to show how Spain and France are trying to help small businesses emerge from the pandemic intact. 

Digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies, pose a “fundamental threat” to central banks around the world because they cut banks out of the picture, Prasad said. Governments are developing their own digital currencies, which could give payment systems extra credibility and boost consumer confidence. But Prasad, a leading expert in this arena, warned that a significant downside to adoption will be privacy: Banks will be monitoring currencies for illicit use and “anything digital is going to be traceable.”

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Criticism from the right regarding U.S. government aid to unemployed workers has intensified of late, with governors in some Republican-leaning states putting an early end to the extra $300 in weekly payments. Their stated intention was that more jobless Americans would look for work if they can’t count on the extra cash. But for some workers—especially parents with young children—barriers to re-entering the labor force remain, and the loss of those additional dollars is adding to their problems. 

On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg economics reporter Olivia Rockeman explains how a lack of childcare options is keeping many women out of the job market. Rather than abusing government aid, many came to rely on the payments while they searched for suitable employment. The U.S. economy had a record 9.2 million open jobs in May, and getting many of those positions filled will require helping working parents find someone to watch their kids. In a second segment, guest host and Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik explores the details and likely effects of President Joe Biden’s sweeping order aimed at promoting competition, with input from reporter Anna Edgerton and University of Tennessee College of Law Professor Maurice Stucke.

Finally, Vietnam-based economics reporter Nguyen Uyen explains why thousands of workers in the Asian export hub are sleeping on factory floors to keep production going during a Covid-19 surge.

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China’s climb to the top of world economic rankings is considered a foregone conclusion in many circles, especially those inside the Chinese Communist Party. But all is not assured: Beijing faces economic and demographic challenges that make surpassing the U.S. less of a no-brainer than one might think.

On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders steers a lively debate on global domination between Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik and George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. At present, China’s $14.7 trillion gross domestic product is 70% of America’s $20.9 trillion economy. In China’s best-case scenario, it could overtake its Western rival by 2031, according to research by Orlik and Eric Zhu, a Bloomberg economist based in Hong Kong. In a worst case scenario, a combination of stalled reforms, international isolation and financial crisis could relegate China to permanent second place. Magnus is skeptical of China’s chances of passing the U.S., arguing that its most productive periods were during liberal economic reform, which is hardly the state of affairs under President Xi Jinping. 

In a second segment, London-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares how some U.K. corporations are speaking more openly about menopause, something 1 in 4 women around the world may be facing by 2030. A rising number are leaving the workforce as a result, which is prompting business leaders to finally address the sometimes taboo subject. 

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The early days of the pandemic saw a scramble to unleash massive monetary and fiscal bailouts to counter the fallout of a global health crisis and the shutdowns intended to mitigate its damage. Almost a year and a half later, times have changed in many countries, and so has the economic landscape. But are policymakers moving fast enough to unwind their emergency measures?

On this week's podcast Stephanie Flanders is joined by two of the biggest names in the financial world—billionaire investor Ray Dalio and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who is perhaps the loudest voice of warning when it comes to inflation. Hear their opinions on just how hot the U.S. economy is running, where they think bubbles are building and why they contend that government officials need to take the threat of inflation seriously, and do so right now.

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After more than three decades enforcing its one-child policy, China finds itself with too many elders in need of care and too few caregivers to provide it. Now, the world’s most populous country is getting creative about solving this growing demographic dilemma.

On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg Shanghai Bureau Chief Charlie Zhu shares the surprising rise of “time banking,” where volunteers offer services to older citizens in exchange for credits they can tap when their time comes. Such an endeavor to support both the elderly of today and tomorrow is in stark contrast with the plight of senior citizens in the U.S. Bloomberg Quicktake producer Madison Paglia and Washington-based Senior Editor Alexandre Tanzi explain how more Americans in their 60s and 70s are stuck paying back student loans, and how the problem is getting worse. Later, host Stephanie Flanders interviews New York-based economics reporter Olivia Rockeman on why U.S. restaurants are finally starting to raise prices.

A Japanese woman developed the time banking concept in the 1970s, but it never really caught on. Now China is turning to this mutual assistance model to alleviate a shortage of caregivers in cities like Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Chinese aged 60 and above already account for one-fifth of the nation’s population, a number that’s expected to almost double by 2050. Meanwhile, births are at their lowest level in almost six decades. These days, able-bodied citizens have begun assisting the elderly with grocery shopping and navigating new technology. Sometimes, they’re just keeping them company. All the while, these volunteers are banking credits for their own old age.

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The wealthiest nations are emerging from the pandemic stronger than anyone thought, nervous about inflation but otherwise feeling they’ve dodged a bullet. That’s not the case for developing countries, with many still overwhelmed by Covid-19 and certainly unable to dole out stimulus checks. 

On this week’s podcast, World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart tells host Stephanie Flanders why she worries the recent surge in inflation could be around for awhile, hitting the world’s poorest hardest. Next, Rome-based economics reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reveals the surprising reason Italian tomatoes are rotting in the field. And, Sydney-based economics reporter Michael Heath discusses why critics contend Australia, long a melting pot of cultures, has lost its way on immigration.

Rising prices are spooking investors and policymakers as many economies rebound from the pandemic. In the U.S., a broad measure of inflation jumped 5% in May, its biggest annual gain since 2008. Many central bankers argue inflation is a temporary reaction to a rapidly reheating economy, but Reinhart says she isn’t so sure. Covid-19 was a much larger global shock than the 2008 financial crisis, with bank moves to expand the money supply providing a much bigger multiplier effect. Those factors could stoke longer-lasting inflation this time around.

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The Summer Olympics in Tokyo are little more than a month away, and workers are readying a rebuilt National Stadium for the opening ceremony. But what should be an opportunity for Japan to recharge its economy and lure back tourists is instead a source of apprehension for its 126 million people. On this week’s podcast, Tokyo-based economics reporter Yuko Takeo dives into Japan’s decision to move forward with the Olympics. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks to Paris-based economics reporter William Horobin about the Group of Seven’s landmark corporate tax deal, and U.S.-based economics reporter Olivia Rockeman speaks to Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom on why the work-from-home revolution could worsen workplace inequality.

Originally, many Japanese had hoped the Olympics could match or even improve upon the 1964 games, which showcased the country’s growing manufacturing clout and led to development of its heralded bullet trains. Now, after a one-year delay, the primary goal is simply to bolster tourism. But the pandemic still overshadows everything: More than 80% of Japanese oppose staging the Olympics, with their biggest fear being that it will become a super-spreader event. Still, for Japan’s leaders, canceling the Games now would be tantamount to declaring they have lost control of the pandemic.

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Canada has a well-earned reputation as the world’s “goody two shoes,” with a progressive record on civil liberties and a history of sticking to its principles in perilous times. The country made it through the 2008 financial crisis relatively unscathed, and more recently its Atlantic provinces were tagged as the New Zealand of North America for their aggressive efforts to contain Covid-19. If you ask Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, she wouldn’t have it any other way.

On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks with this rising star in Canadian politics, one seen as a potential successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. A former journalist, Freeland has loudly defended aggressive fiscal moves by Canada and other nations to bolster their economies over criticism they are ignoring the inflation threat. She also argues it took Covid-19 to convince Canada to take child care seriously.

The podcast ends with a look at the surprising cultural dynamics forming up around America’s milk and egg supply. Bloomberg agriculture reporter Elizabeth Elkin relates how producers are fighting to keep chocolate milk in U.S. schools while some farmers are betting consumers are willing to pay big for environmentally friendly eggs.

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After more than a year of pandemic, the U.S. economy is roaring back and is now expected to grow by 9.4% in the second quarter. That's fueling a mad scramble across U.S. industries desperately in need of workers. But for all the momentum, pockets of poverty and stagnation remain behind the rosy American facade. And no place represents that reality better than Youngstown, Ohio.

On this week's podcast, U.S.-based economics reporter Shawn Donnan digs into the decades-long economic slide in this Eastern Ohio city and the flailing attempts to revive it. More than 61,000 people worked in Youngstown's booming manufacturing industry in 1990, but this past March it employed just over 23,000. The latest blow occurred in 2019, when General Motors closed its doors in nearby Lordstown and took 4,500 jobs with it. A struggling effort to make Youngstown a hub of 3D printing, launched under former President Barack Obama, shows how hard it is for the Rust Belt to regain its former glory.

Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik discusses the International Monetary Fund's proposal to end the pandemic and Johannesburg economics reporter Prinesha Naidoo reports on the growing Covid-19 calamity in Africa, where delayed vaccination campaigns could leave 39 million more Africans in extreme poverty this year. And host Stephanie Flanders sits down with Germany's Olaf Scholz, the finance minister vying to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, to ask about his campaign and why Germany is moving ahead with a controversial gas pipeline with Russia.

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The pandemic has upended the way the world shops, worships and especially how often we wash our hands. With the virus waning in many parts of the globe (while still raging in some places, like India and Brazil), economists and policymakers are debating whether our societal quarantine workarounds will persist -- or be jettisoned by summer's end. 

On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders takes a rare break from moderating and hands the microphone to Sebastian Mallaby of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations for a discussion of the pandemic's economic effects. William Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve, explains why the inflation fears that have gripped the U.S. are likely just a short-term reaction to surging consumer demand. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggests the Euro is emerging as a winner in the ``relative ugliness contest'' among world currencies. And, Flanders argues that, while countries including the U.K. have a new focus on ``living local,'' it's no real threat to globalization.

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It’s been a long time since anyone in America or Europe had to think seriously about inflation. But the highest U.S. numbers since 2009 have rattled financial markets and critics of President Joe Biden are warning that his big spending could trigger a full-blown 70s-style price spiral.

Bloomberg Senior Asia Economy Correspondent Enda Curran reports from Hong Kong on the price pressures facing Asian exporters, and how they’re affecting what consumers pay in American stores. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks to Jason Thomas, head of Global Research at the Carlyle Group, who says he believes that reopening the U.S. economy will help push inflation back down again—and that the long-term forces which have kept a lid on prices are still in place. 

With U.S. gas stations across the Southeast running short of supply and drivers sitting in line to fill their tanks, you would have been forgiven for thinking the 70s had already returned. Though the Colonial Pipeline is now back up and running, Chief Energy Correspondent Javier Blas explains how a cyberattack on America’s biggest fuel conduit could do such damage, and why U.S. energy companies are scrambling to shore up their defenses. 

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The world’s biggest businesses are massive, spanning countries and continents. Now they're getting even larger, and that may not be a good thing. In the past few decades alone, the largest 50 firms have tripled their profit. Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google together make more money in a week than McDonald's makes in an entire year. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg’s Chief Economist Tom Orlik about what the rise of these mega-companies could mean for the global economy. 

London School of Economics Professor Philippe Aghion joins Flanders to explain why the rise of big tech, once great for innovation and growth, is no longer. Aghion also discusses his plan for getting the very best out of capitalists. And French economy reporter William Horobin explains why the campaign to extract tax from the tech giants just got a lot more interesting.

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U.S. President Biden marked his 100th day in office this week with another massive spending package -- this one squarely aimed at taxing the rich to give money to everyone else. He’s proposed nearly $6 trillion dollars in new spending since taking office, much of which is to be paid for with higher tax revenues. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve policy makers are looking at this ocean of government spending, a booming stock market and rapidly recovering economy and have decided to leave interest rates at rock bottom and keep on buying up debt. Bloomberg White House reporter Nancy Cook and Federal Reserve reporter Rich Miller join host Stephanie Flanders to consider whether we really are seeing a revolution in U.S. economic policy under the man that Donald Trump used to call sleepy Joe.

Meanwhile, the unequal impact of Covid-19 continues to reverberate through the U.S. economy. Bloomberg Economy reporter Mike Sasso reports on how the pandemic is causing a retirement rush with some older Americans simply unable to find work, while others cash in on stock market gains to embrace life beyond the 9-5, and Senior Editor Alex Tanzi reveals some unexpected shifts in intergenerational inequality.

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For many, the pandemic has altered where we work, how we work and when we work. But will that change be forever? Or will we wake up in a year and find we’re back to normal? It’s a vital question, because if work changes, the shape of the economy will change, too. Bloomberg’s Spanish Economy reporter Jeannette Neumann visited a quiet corner of northeast Spain to meet those who escaped the city and to find out just how sustainable their new lives really are.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Dublin Bureau Chief Dara Doyle about the Irish government’s attempts to persuade people to stay away from the office, and perhaps work from the local pub instead. She also speaks with Sven Smit, co-chair of the McKinsey Global Institute, on his view of work in the post-pandemic world. With 100 million developed market jobs at risk of being displaced, how should we respond? And if you have kids, what should your child’s reaction to home schooling tell us?

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More than 50 years ago, the public and private sectors united to bring men to the moon and back. As the world begins to look at how it can recover from the Covid-19, what lessons can the original moonshot have for the modern challenges facing governments and industry today?

In this week’s episode, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Mariana Mazzucato, author and professor in Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College London. Find out how similar partnerships could help solve intractable problems such as global warming and pandemics, why doing what sounds obvious simply isn’t happening and what she says U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration needs to know.

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Recent weeks have seen an outpouring of optimism about the economic recovery, especially in the U.S. The International Monetary Fund has added its voice to the chorus, predicting developed economies could not only enjoy rapid growth in the coming years but see little or no permanent damage from the sudden collapse in 2020. But is that rebound going to be felt everywhere? Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about what's changed and his outlook for global growth.

Almost 100 days have elapsed since the chimes of Big Ben marked Brexit's formal implementation. U.K. economy reporter Lizzy Burden reports on the country’s messy post-divorce relationship with the European Union, and talks to some people who have been caught in the middle. Finally, Flanders speaks with U.S real estate reporter Alex Wittenberg about how the boom in online shopping could be the death knell for golf courses all across America.

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As the world enters a second year of Covid-19, we begin our new season of Stephanomics with perspectives on the pandemic’s fallout from Bloomberg correspondents all over the world. From cross-border jealousy and government spending battles to desolate beaches and unexpected theater companions, Andrew Rosati in Brazil, Shelly Hagan in Canada, Kamlesh Bhuckory in Mauritius and Anya Andrianova in Russia tell us how the global health catastrophe has changed local economies.

Host Stephanie Flanders then talks with Bloomberg Chief Energy Correspondent Javier Blas about why one stuck container ship could cause so much disruption to global trade, and how long we may be living with the after-effects of the resulting traffic jam. Flanders also speaks to Dr. Dambisa Moyo—author, economist and board member of Chevron and 3M—about what the post-pandemic future may hold for workers.

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A few decades ago, nobody really questioned vaccines. They were viewed as a standard part of staying healthy and safe. Today, the number of people questioning vaccines risks prolonging a pandemic that has already killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. How we got to this moment didn’t start with the rollout of vaccines or in March 2020, or even with the election of Donald Trump. Our confidence in vaccines, often isn't even about vaccines. It’s about trust. And that trust has been eroding for a long time. Doubt, a new series from Bloomberg’s Prognosis podcast, looks at the forces that have been breaking down that trust. We'll trace the rise of vaccine skepticism in America to show how we got here — and where we’re going. Doubt launches on March 23. Subscribe to Prognosis today on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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More than 150 years after the end of slavery in the U.S., the net worth of a typical white family is nearly six times greater than that of the average Black family. Season 3 of The Pay Check digs into into how we got to where we are today and what can be done to narrow the yawning racial wealth gap in the U.S.

Jackie Simmons and Rebecca Greenfield co-host the season, which kicks off with a personal story about land Jackie's family acquired some time after slavery that they're on the verge of losing. From there the series explores all the ways the wealth gaps manifests and the radical solutions, like affirmative action, quotas, and reparations, that can potentially lead to greater equality.

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Governments spent trillions of dollars in 2020 tackling the pandemic while propping up businesses and households. But the unprecedented expenditure has awakened real concern about such high levels of borrowing. World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart says we should worry about winning the war first and how to pay for it later. She joins host Stephanie Flanders to discuss why policymakers shouldn't confuse rebound with recovery, and how a slow rollout of vaccines may cut global growth in half this year. 

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Jamie Rush about the real cost of all that borrowing. And Bloomberg Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy looks at the parallels between the current crisis and that of the 1920s, and how this decade could be just as roaring. 

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The U.S. doesn’t just have a new president this week. The world’s largest economy is also getting a new Treasury Secretary, albeit a familiar face, in Janet Yellen. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg’s U.S. Treasury reporter Chris Condon, who listened in to Yellen’s confirmation hearing for a sneak preview of what her reign at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue might look like.

Across the Pacific in Hong Kong, Senior Asia Economy Correspondent Enda Curran goes in search of an unexpectedly elusive commodity—shipping containers. The global shipping industry is struggling to deliver what the world wants to buy, leaving exporters and importers everywhere feeling the pain and awakening fears that these supply chain issues could stop the economic recovery in its tracks.

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Covid-19 isn't just a deadly threat to human life; it's also a mental health catastrophe with economic consequences. Fear of illness, strict lockdowns, isolation from friends and family, rising unemployment and collapsing businesses weigh on the hearts and minds of people all across the globe. 

But poor mental health isn’t just a symptom of economic malaise: It can also be a cause. Bloomberg economics reporter William Horobin reports from Paris about what the psychological effects of the pandemic could mean for our longer-term prosperity, and what can be done to help. Host Stephanie Flanders also speaks with Baron Richard Layard, an expert in the economics of happiness at the London School of Economics. He talks about why the coronavirus should make us rethink how we treat mental illness, how "building back better" should mean services rather than roads and railways, and why money really doesn’t make us happy. Really.

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An economy is its people. Alongside the almost 360,000 killed by the coronavirus in the U.S., there are millions more whose lives have been upended by the pandemic’s economic shock. Bloomberg senior reporter Shawn Donnan introduces one of those people as he investigates the widening inequalities across America, and host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg reporter Michael Sasso about what the results of this week’s Georgia Senate runoff could mean.

Across the Atlantic, U.K. economy reporter Lizzy Burden speaks with the frustrated truck drivers stranded on the front line of Britain’s Covid and Brexit woes, desperate to get home to their families—and clean toilets. Flanders also talks with senior U.K. economist Dan Hanson about the country’s latest lockdown and its last-minute trade deal with the European Union.

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The events of 2020 caught most people off guard. The global economy was upended, prompting unprecedented responses by governments and central banks while shaking up supply chains. It was also a year that made many of us rethink the way we live. 

On this podcast, host Stephanie Flanders leads a roundtable discussion about the year’s most memorable moments, and what 2021 may hold in store for us. She's joined by Bloomberg Editor at Large Francine Lacqua, Chief Economist Tom Orlik, former Beijing Bureau Chief Sharon Chen and Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy. 

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As a tumultuous year for the global economy comes to a close, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with someone on the front line of the policy response. Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane discusses the outlook for recovery now that vaccinations have begun, how central bankers view inflation and whether the pandemic is really the answer to the productivity puzzle.

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Adding robots to factories, retail stores or mines was historically seen as a job killer by workers and the unions that support them. But this year, automation has allowed sectors of the economy to continue producing with fewer people, minimizing the coronavirus risk for workers. U.S. economy reporter Olivia Rockeman explains what that might mean in the long term and what needs to happen to help the displaced.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Harvard Economics Chair Richard Freeman about how 2020 has changed the world of work and what the future will hold. She also speaks with Bloomberg’s Chief European Economist Jamie Rush about what kind of economic boost the rollout of coronavirus vaccines could bring.

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Internet companies have long been the target of complaints that they don’t pay their fair share of taxes. The system wasn’t built for a digital global economy, but how do you now impose rules on multinational tech giants? Bloomberg Economy reporter William Horobin reports from Paris on the battle to find common ground among almost 140 countries and avoid a new transatlantic trade conflict.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Pascal Saint-Amans, director of the center for tax policy at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the man trying to find a way through the arguments. 

She also speaks with Ivory Coast reporter Leanne de Bassompierre about a very different trade spat between the chocolate makers we all know and love and the West African nations that produce their cocoa. It’s a fight that might play out in the price of your Hershey’s kisses this Christmas.

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In Washington, personnel is policy. The people President-elect Joe Biden has picked to run economic policy can tell us a lot about what we might expect from the next administration. Bloomberg Businessweek Economics Editor Peter Coy introduces us to the key players and explains what Bidenomics could look like. 

Then host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Harvard University Professor Jason Furman, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama. He says the U.S. should stop worrying about debt and rethink fiscal policy, explaining why members of the new administration, many of whom he considers friends, are the right people for the job.

Finally, with less than five weeks before the U.K. leaves the European Union, Flanders talks with Bloomberg finance reporter Viren Vaghela about the damage already done to London’s financial industry and what’s at stake if the trickle of jobs and money leaving Britain becomes a flood.

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The hard reality of the Covid-19 pandemic is that while those at greatest risk of dying are retirement age or older, the economic disaster and its consequences fall disproportionately on the shoulders of the young.

How does it feel to be one of these people, knowing you're on the hook for years of lost economic opportunity while others dictate the terms of any recovery? Bloomberg London news apprentice Eileen Gbagbo, age 21, reports on how the virus is inflaming intergenerational tensions. 

Then host Stephanie Flanders speaks with London School of Economics Professor and former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart and Talking Heads Macroeconomics founder Manoj Pradhan about their book, "The Great Demographic Reversal." They give their thoughts on why inflation is going to return and how automation can--and can’t--help future generations handle the burdens ahead.

And finally, we’re back at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum to hear from United Nations Special Envoy for Climate and Finance and former BOE Governor Mark Carney about how the world of finance is going to help the planet get to zero carbon.

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This week’s episode of Stephanomics comes to you from the third annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum, where global leaders have gathered for a virtual discussion of how to solve the world’s biggest challenges, not least of which is the coronavirus pandemic.

Stephanie Flanders brings together former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, ex-Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to analyze the unprecedented economic response to Covid-19. They debate whether world leaders have done enough to help Main Street instead of just Wall Street, and whether global institutions are being too timid this time around. 

Flanders is then joined by Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin, who talks about the future of trade as Brexit approaches, and just where U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden’s Irish grandparents came from.

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For decades, Asia’s fast-growing economies have offered millions of young people the chance to do better than their parents. Thanks to Covid-19, that tradition may soon end as youth unemployment soars in a region home to most of the world’s young adults. So what happens when your economic opportunities dry up? Bloomberg’s Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran reports from Hong Kong on the struggles and hopes of the “lockdown generation.” 

Then host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik about what the world could look like in 2050, and who wins or loses if the trend toward deglobalization continues. Flanders also talks with Eurozone economist Maeva Cousin on the cost of climate change and why it may take farsighted policy makers to see the rewards of acting now.

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Who the U.S. president will be for the next four years is dominating the headlines right now, but what of the previous four? In the wake of the Nov. 3 election, host Stephanie Flanders discusses with some of the nation’s leading economists just how Donald Trump’s administration has changed America’s economy and how it interacts with the rest of the world. 

Flanders is joined by University of Chicago Professor Randall Kroszner, a former Fed Governor, and George Mason University Professor Tyler Cowen, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, to talk trade, taxes and trillions of dollars in coronavirus rescue funding. She also speaks with New York University Professor Baruch Lev about how much of Trump’s vaunted stock market rally is built on intangible assets, and what that could mean for future policy makers. 

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Alongside the financial destruction wrought by Covid-19 there comes new opportunities. European officials have seized on one in particular—mending battered economies in a way that also tackles global warming, or “building back greener.” But how to turn those words into action? Bloomberg renewables reporter Jess Shankleman reports from London on the policies that may bring that dream to fruition, and the sobering realities of trying to do so during a pandemic.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with economist and policymaker Lord Nicholas Stern about how he thinks addressing climate change can be a sustainable route to growth, and what the U.S. election could mean for the future of the planet. She also speaks with Bloomberg’s trade and supply chains editor Brendan Murray about why the world’s container ships might not have enough space for all your Christmas presents this year. 

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Amid its terrible death toll and economic devastation, the coronavirus pandemic has prompted people, businesses and governments to rethink the way they live and operate. Now, as countries seek to take their first steps back toward normality, many are wondering what changes forced upon us by Covid-19 may be worth keeping when the crisis has passed.

For Thailand’s national parks, the pandemic has meant a chance for nature to regenerate thanks to the absence of tourists. Senior Asia Economy Reporter Michelle Jamrisko reports on how a government plan to make that a regular occurrence faces pushback from local businesses desperate for foot-traffic again. 

Our guest host, Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, talks with America’s former top career diplomat in China, Dave Rank, about relations between the world’s two biggest economic powers and what the U.S. election could mean for their future relations. He also catches up on the latest Brexit developments with Bloomberg Economics’ Dan Hanson.

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The pandemic has raised the specter of mass unemployment across many developed economies. In Europe, governments stepped in to help pay millions of workers, hoping the crisis would quickly pass and businesses reopen. But with normality nowhere in sight and fresh waves of infection prompting new restrictions, the question now is which jobs should we try to save?

On this week’s episode, Bloomberg economy reporter Jeannette Neumann reports from Cadiz, Spain, where old industries hold lessons for the present battle to save jobs. Stephanie Flanders also talks with leading economists Paul Collier and John Kay about their new book, “Greed Is Dead,” and why Gordon Gekko might have been wrong. Community, it turns out, plays a surprisingly large role in capitalism.

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Covid-19 has upended economies across the globe. In the fourth season of Stephanomics, we’ll be taking a closer look at the fragile path to recovery and which nations are doing better than others.

This first podcast of the new season is brought to you by the letter K, or more precisely the K-shaped recovery which sees parts of the U.S. economy bouncing back while others still suffer. We start in Cleveland, where Bloomberg senior reporter Shawn Donnan tells us about two houses that illustrate how the pandemic is both reinforcing and widening America’s inequalities. 

Host Stephanie Flanders also talks with Director of the London School of Economics Minouche Shafik about the unequal economic impact of the pandemic, and what policymakers should be doing to help. Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg economy editor James Mayger in China, where after months of staying home, almost half a billion people are displaying confidence in the country’s rebound and finally taking a vacation.

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Andy Browne, editorial director for the Bloomberg New Economy, talks to Jonathan Hillman, author of the book The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century.

That project, of course, is the Belt and Road Initiative: the grand strategy of president Xi Jinping who has made it his foreign policy signature. But what is it exactly? An imperial effort, certainly. But according to Jonathan not a very organized one. And one that could repeat the mistakes of past empires.

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One of the first global consumer companies to feel the impact of Covid-19 was the beer giant AB InBev, whose brands include Budweiser, Corona and Stella Artois. AB InBev operates a brewery in Whuan China where the pandemic began and which was the worlds first city to go into lockdown.

But as life returns to normal in Wuhan and cities all over the world, beer is flowing again in record quantities. In this interview, Andy Browne talks to AB InBevs CEO Carlos Brito about this turnaround in fortunes and how Brito ultimately sees us bounce back from this temporary isolation in celebration.

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Before the pandemic, relations between the U.S. and China were already at rock bottom. Since then, they've gotten even worse, with both sides trading blame for the Covid-19 outbreak, spinning conspiracy theories and abandoning cooperation on all fronts. To discuss what this all means for the Covid economy,

Andy Browne caught up with two Wall Street Journal reporters, Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, to talk about their new book, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War.

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In this bonus episode, Andy Browne, the editorial Director of the Bloomberg New Economy, talks to Brian Chesky, chief executive of Airbnb.

A few months ago, the company laid off a quarter of its staff. But since then, the business has since staged a remarkable comeback — and now Airbnb is said to be planning an IPO. Andy and Brian discuss the future of travel, and what a new nomadic workforce might mean for the home rental business.

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The novel coronavirus has reshaped the global economy, shifting the attitudes of governments, central bankers and consumers alike. It has changed how we work—if we work—and altered monetary and fiscal policy around the globe.

As this tumultuous season of Stephanomics draws to a close, host Stephanie Flanders speaks with two leading economists about what they’ve learned from the crisis so far. Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC, and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, share their thoughts on how their profession has reacted to the pandemic, what uncertainty means for businesses and markets, and the generational implications of closing down economies to protect the most vulnerable.

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The killers of Berta Caceres had every reason to believe they’d get away with murder. More than 100 other environmental activists in Honduras had been killed in the previous five years, yet almost no one had been punished for the crimes. Bloomberg’s Blood River follows a four-year quest to find her killers – a twisting trail that leads into the country’s circles of power.

Blood River premieres on July 27.

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Great things can rise from the ashes of failed companies, so governments shouldn’t rescue firms that would otherwise go bust. That’s the thinking behind so-called creative destruction, but amid the unprecedented shock of the pandemic, does this economic theory apply, or is it too risky? 

On this week’s episode, Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Federal Reserve reporter Rich Miller and Eurozone economist Maeva Cousin about the contrasting economic policy approaches taken by the U.S. and Europe. 

The pandemic has also thrown up new challenges for gender equality, with women more likely to suffer financially, especially in hard-hit sectors like tourism and hospitality. Bloomberg economy reporter Yuko Takeo reports how the crisis is another obstacle for Japanese women fighting for greater representation in the workplace, and more power in the world’s third largest economy. 

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Wuhan will forever be known as the place where Covid-19 and lockdowns began. But the Chinese city also might be the best place to learn how to restart the global economy. On this week’s episode, Stephanie Flanders talks to Sharon Chen, Bloomberg’s Beijing bureau chief, about the lessons we can learn from Wuhan’s efforts to get life—and business—back on track, and why it pays to be in the instant noodle business right now.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik about his new book, “China: The Bubble that Never Pops.” From the financial system to real estate and banking, Western commentators always seem to be waiting for the world’s second-largest economy to blow up. So why hasn’t that happened yet? 

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Covid-19’s fracturing of supply chains has left businesses and governments questioning the prudence of networks that crisscross the planet. Pandemic recovery plans talk of developing “strategic autonomy” in key sectors, and suggest that executives should bring production closer to home. But on the ground, companies say it’s not so easy. 

Host Stephanie Flanders hears from Frankfurt-based Bloomberg reporter Piotr Skolimowski and a German pharmaceutical executive about why it’s so hard for Europe to extract itself from Chinese supply chains. She also speaks with World Trade Organization Chief Economist Robert Koopman and Renaissance Capital’s Global Chief Economist Charles Robertson on the future of global trade and investment. They discuss what trade might look like in a post-coronavirus world, whether so-called reshoring is actually a good idea, and why emerging market economies might ultimately benefit from Covid-19.

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Adam Neumann had a vision: to make his startup WeWork a wildly successful company that would change the world. He convinced thousands of other people -- customers, employees, investors -- that he could make that dream a reality. And for a while, he did. He was one of the most successful startup founders in the world. But then, in the span of just a few months, everything changed.

Foundering is a new serialized podcast from the journalists at Bloomberg Technology. This season, we’ll tell you the story of WeWork, a company that captured the startup boom of the 2010s and also may be remembered as a spectacular bust that marked the end of an era.

Catch the first two episodes of Foundering, now available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

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It’s no exaggeration to say the coronavirus has upended the global economy in ways few could have imagined. It's been called a wake-up call for capitalism and a foreshadowing of our exceedingly precarious future, one with more catastrophes waiting in the wings. What if anything can governments and central banks do about it?

Host Stephanie Flanders digs into this question with two famous economists, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Nouriel Roubini, as part of the Bloomberg Invest Global virtual conference. From the possibility of a cold war between the U.S. and China to the impact of technology on employment, the fate of emerging markets and the end of globalization, they come to some pretty different conclusions. 

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As protests against racial discrimination and police killings continue across the U.S., another injustice is ripping through American cities: Black-owned businesses are shutting down at an alarming rate. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Atlanta-based Bloomberg reporter Michael Sasso on why twice as many Black entrepreneurs are being forced to close their doors amid the pandemic as compared with white business owners.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economics’ Tom Orlik about how long the fallout from Covid-19 is likely to last. Is a rapid recovery possible? Or are we looking at a longer, more painful outlook for unemployment? We’ll hear why he thinks that almost one-third of the millions of jobs lost in the U.S. might not be coming back.

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Protests all across America following the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, have put yet another spotlight on the deep inequality between black and white America. That disparity was also laid bare in last week’s jobs data, when a surprise drop in overall unemployment masked the fact that black joblessness has climbed to its highest level in more than a decade.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with economy reporter Matthew Boesler about what these inequities mean for policy setting at the Federal Reserve, and Jason Furman, a former economic advisor to President Barack Obama, gives his thoughts about what lies ahead for U.S. employment after Covid-19.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg Economist Boingotlo Gasealahwe about the challenges facing African nations as they seek to fund post-pandemic recoveries. Without the backstop of cheap finance, they risk a protracted slump that could curtail development for decades.

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Europe is emerging after weeks of lockdowns that kept shops and businesses shuttered, and residents safe at home. On this week’s episode, Bloomberg economy reporter Jeannette Neumann steps out onto the streets of Madrid to speak with restaurateurs and hoteliers. In a post-coronavirus world where travel is limited, outdoor dining mandatory and police decide how many tables are allowed, reopening a business brings new challenges to stay afloat.

Host Stephanie Flanders also talks with Bloomberg Economics’ Johanna Jeansson about the very different pandemic strategy adopted by Sweden. When restrictions are voluntary and the government isn’t in charge, what does it means for the economy and public health?

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Covid-19 is the biggest threat to our physical and economic health in recent times, but on this week’s episode, Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs takes a 70,000 year perspective on the global crisis, what it will mean for international relations and even a potentially better future.

Stephanie Flanders also speaks to Bloomberg Opinion editor Ferdinando Giugliano about the European Union’s proposed recovery fund. He thinks this time will be different for fiscally strait-laced Germany, but for it to have lasting impact, the Italians will need to show they can spend it wisely.

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There’s little debate that Covid-19 has crushed economies and triggered government rescue efforts not seen in modern times. On this week’s episode, World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart and fellow Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, authors of “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” discuss what comes next with Bloomberg Economics executive editor Simon Kennedy.

The depth of the U.S. recession isn’t the only way in which this time is different. While tens of millions are newly unemployed or working fewer hours, new pandemic-adjacent occupations are emerging. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg global business reporter Jeff Green about these new jobs, such as contract tracer and thermal scanner.

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Romanian home-care workers in Italy. Indian construction crews in Dubai. Filipino maids and cooks in Singapore. The world’s wealthy economies depend on a steady flow of cheap labor from lower-income nations. And people in those nations often rely on remittances from family members working abroad.

Now it seems that the coronavirus pandemic that’s crushing economies all over the world is also upending the global labor market. Workers are heading back to their native countries in large numbers—or stranded far from home without jobs and benefits.

Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg journalists in three regions for insight into how this is playing out: European economy editor Andrew Langley in London, Middle East economic reporter Abeer Abu Omar in Dubai and Asia economics columnist Daniel Moss in Singapore.

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Just a few months ago, the economic debate about employment centered on how low the jobless rate could go. Now, with tens of millions out of work across the globe, it's about how bad it can get. On this week's episode, host Stephanie Flanders and economy reporter Katia Dmitrieva discuss how those "last in" to a boom economy are usually the "first out" in a downturn. Focusing on seven case studies, they discuss how minorities, young people and women who benefited from the historic surge in employment will be the ones who suffer most, and for longer. 

In Europe, the coronavirus continues to hit countries hard, yet many people have actually been able to keep their jobs, with at least 45 million having their wages paid by the state. Flanders also talks with Bloomberg Eurozone Economist Maeva Cousin about the cost of keeping these people paid, and how governments will wean companies off this vital support.

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The Waffle House chain of U.S. restaurants, with most of its locations in the nation’s south, is famous for staying open during hurricanes and other severe weather. Now it’s facing what could be a tougher challenge: luring customers who are wary of spending time there because of the coronavirus.

It’s all happening in Georgia, whose Republican governor made waves with his decision to let many businesses and restaurants reopen sooner than most people expected—and earlier than medical experts consider advisable.

Stephanie Flanders talks with Atlanta-based Bloomberg reporter Michael Sasso about the situation on the ground. We’ll hear excerpts from his interview with a Waffle House spokeswoman, too.

Flanders also speaks with returning guest Richard Baldwin, an economist at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and co-editor of a new eBook addressing Covid-19 and trade policy. Baldwin discusses how trade restrictions are exacerbating the damage done by the pandemic—such as making it more difficult to get masks.

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How do you restart the global economy following a coronavirus-induced lockdown? China is the test case, and getting workers back to work is proving a lot easier than getting them to shop or patronize restaurants. On this week’s episode, Stephanie Flanders talks to Bloomberg Beijing bureau chief Sharon Chen about her recent visit to Wuhan, the starting point of the pandemic, and her subsequent 14-day quarantine when she returned home.

Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg chief Europe economist Jamie Rush about how lifting restrictions will translate into increased economic output. Then, in an excerpt from a panel discussion, former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has some strong words about the Group of 20’s response to the pandemic, along with inflation targeting and a few other topics.

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Mid-April is when the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their spring meetings, where finance ministers and central bankers gather to exchange ideas on keeping global growth intact. This year, the meetings will be virtual, and the discussions less about growth and more about avoiding an economic abyss.

Gita Gopinath, in her second year as the IMF’s chief economist, is projecting the worst global downturn since the Great Depression. She talks with Stephanie Flanders about what the international community needs to do now and what lessons policymakers should take away from the Covid-19 pandemic and its fallout. Flanders also speaks with Bloomberg economy reporter Catherine Bosley about why Germany is patting itself on the back for a history of budgetary stinginess.

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For years, a small band of economists pushed an unorthodox approach to government spending (particularly in the U.S.), arguing that concern about deficits and debt was wildly overblown. Now, with measures to contain the novel coronavirus shutting down commerce around the world, and fiscal authorities spending trillions of dollars to fill the gap, it’s starting to become more popular.

Stephanie Kelton, an economist and adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, the now-former Democratic presidential candidate, has been one of the most prominent advocates of Modern Monetary Theory. On this week’s episode, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Kelton about her thoughts on the fiscal response so far, and whether President Donald Trump has indeed joined the crowd of MMT advocates.

Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s chief economist, also puts the government and central bank actions into perspective, while global trade correspondent Shawn Donnan discusses how his beat has changed during the pandemic.

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In a matter of weeks the Covid-19 virus has turned the world upside down. In the start of a new season of Stephanomics, James Mayger and Zhu Lin report from China - the original epicenter of the virus – on how truck drivers there are trying to get back to normal. Then host Stephanie Flanders asks US economist Adam Posen how the economics profession has risen to the challenge of the crisis - and whether the right advice has been getting through to governments.

The terrible human cost of the coronavirus has been evident for some time. But most countries are only now starting to see the economic cost which fighting the pandemic will also inflict. In this third season of Stephanomics we’ll be doing our best to help you understand that story with reporting and insights from experts inside and outside Bloomberg.

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Harnessing Bloomberg's reporting from every continent, Bloomberg's daily Prognosis podcast brings the news, data and analysis you need for living in the time of Covid-19. In around ten minutes, we will explain the latest developments in health and science, the impact on individuals, industries and governments and the adaptions they are making in the face of the global pandemic. Come back every weekday afternoon for a short dose of the best information about the novel coronavirus from more than 120 bureaus around the world.

First episode drops Thursday, March 26. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

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French economist Thomas Piketty made a big splash in 2014 with his best-selling book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," stirring debate about how capitalism benefited the wealthy. He takes an even broader view in his new tome, "Capital and Ideology," whose English translation will be published in March. You can wait until then to read all 1000+ pages - or get a sneak preview with the author himself in this bonus episode of Stephanomics. 

In her conversation with Piketty, Stephanie Flanders discusses the impact of his book and why he thinks this one is better. He also offers his view of Donald Trump and Brexit, the limitations of electoral systems and the 2020 US election, the global rise of nationalism and why history does not move move in a straight line. 

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This week, Stephanomics concludes its second season with a preview of Bloomberg Markets’ special trade issue, along with a look at what could stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Tyler Cowen, the George Mason University economist and Marginal Revolution blogger, talks with host Stephanie Flanders about how well—or how poorly—the U.S. and China are positioned to deal with the outbreak.

On trade, reporter Enda Curran visits Hong Kong and the city’s Toy and Baby Fair to get a sense of how the territory’s place in the world economy is being buffeted by democracy protests and the U.S.-China trade war. Then Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC, returns to discuss what the history of globalization portends for the future.

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Economy. Labor. Climate change.

These are the issues that are front-of-mind for attendees of this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. On a special episode direct from the conference, Stephanie Flanders dives in with a leader from each field.

On the economy, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman Jacob Frenkel, a former Bank of Israel Governor and a 33-time Davos attendee, talks about why we’re still feeling the impact of the financial crisis. Next, Christy Hoffman, head of the international labor federation UNI, discusses how unions can become more relevant in a gig-economy world.

And finally, Jonathan Woetzel of the McKinsey Global Institute outlines a new report looking at the broad impact of global warming, and how companies are really just in the early stages of incorporating climate risk into their strategies.

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If there’s one thing many Americans agree on, it’s the importance of education as a bedrock of the U.S. economy. Yet the federal government has left children’s education almost entirely up to states and towns, its funding subject to the vagaries of the real estate market and demographic shifts.

Reporter Craig Torres visits a rural community just hours from the nation’s capital, illustrating how difficult it is to improve opportunities for the less fortunate. Then host Stephanie Flanders delves into the issue with scholar Elaine Weiss of the Economic Policy Institute.

We’ll also hear from reporter Shawn Donnan in Washington, who talks with Flanders about whether this week’s “phase one” trade agreement between the U.S. and China means the conflict is ending, or if we’re really just at the beginning.

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Americans are paying more and getting less for their health care than ever before. On the new season of Prognosis, reporter John Tozzi explores what went wrong. 

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With tensions rising in the Middle East, investors have been increasingly focused on the risk of war between the U.S. and Iran. On this week’s episode, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief Middle East economist, about what’s at stake for the region and oil markets.

Then, in the first of two segments focused on education, European economy reporter Jeannette Neumann visits Greece to explore why people with so many degrees are having trouble getting jobs—and the government’s effort to attract workers who are needed most.

Finally, Flanders is joined by Federal Reserve reporter Chris Condon, who recaps the major themes from last weekend’s annual meeting of the American Economic Association. One burning question: Would you give up Facebook for a month in exchange for $50?

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Will trade wars go the way of 2019 or keep on raging?

Is Europe’s economy finally on a rebound?

What does U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election victory mean for U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democrats running to replace him?

These are just a few of the questions that Stephanie Flanders and our Bloomberg panel address in a special roundtable discussion.

Flanders is joined by Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik, senior trade and economy reporter Shawn Donnan, and European economy editor Jana Randow as they reflect on the key moments of 2019, and look ahead to 2020.

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What happens when you cross the U.S.-China trade war with the Christmas tradition of covering your home in lights, while tossing in a Nobel-winning economist for good measure?

Why, you get the year-end episode of Stephanomics, of course.

America slapped tariffs on holiday lights made in China, the world’s dominant supplier. So Bloomberg reporter Michelle Jamrisko went to Hanoi to find out whether the numbers are really true—the ones that show exports of Christmas lights from Vietnam are surging as a result. Clark Griswold makes a guest appearance in the podcast as well. 

Then, Stephanie Flanders brings you an interview with Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University. The Nobel laureate shares his thoughts on “progressive capitalism,” the theme of his upcoming book, along with Big Tech, the Green New Deal and just how bad the next recession might be.

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In recent decades, Chile has been marked by the relative stability of its economy and politics in a region where the opposite is more typical. But the widespread protests that began in October—and the violence and deaths that followed—shattered that image, exposing a rich-poor divide and broader social dissatisfaction that the government seems unable to address.

On this week’s episode, Bloomberg Santiago Bureau Chief Eduardo Thomson meets with protesters and economists to get at the roots of the conflict. Then host Stephanie Flanders turns to Felipe Hernandez, a Bloomberg economist covering Chile and Latin America, for a look at the impact of the demonstrations—and what they say about the entire region.

Also, days after the U.S. and China reached a partial truce in the trade war, Bloomberg News Trade Czar Brendan Murray joins Flanders to discuss what it means and what’s next. Spoiler alert: The trade war isn’t really over yet.

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On this special bonus episode, Stephanie Flanders joins the Bloomberg Westminster podcast to discuss the dramatic British election night.

The Conservative Party have won their biggest majority since Thatcher. Alan Wager from the UK in a Changing Europe tells Bloomberg's Caroline Hepker and Sebastian Salek what sort of Brexit he thinks Boris Johnson will pursue. Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, says new Tory voters in the north of England could be the worst hit.

Plus, TUC Leader Frances O'Grady explains why Labour lost. And Women's Equality Party Leader Mandu Reid says a record number of female MPs doesn't mean it was a good election for women. With analysis from Bloomberg's Therese Raphael, and Roger Hearing live in Westminster.

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Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who died this week at age 92, was an imposing public figure—in height as well as stature.

He was best known for his bold moves in the U.S. war against inflation, and for his dedication to public service. But there was more to the man, as Bloomberg Markets editor Christine Harper discovered as she worked with Volcker to co-write his 2018 memoir, “Keeping At It.”

Harper joins host Stephanie Flanders to share her memories and observations of Volcker’s humor, hobbies and patience.

Also this week, Stephanomics explores what’s ailing India, which this year lost its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Moreover, any chance of regaining that crown looks like it’s slipping away, despite the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. One reason: The gem and jewelry industry, which accounts for almost 7% of India’s economy, is suffering thanks to external forces like the U.S.-China trade war as well as a possible setback from the Indian government itself.

Anirban Nag reports from Mumbai on the sector, while Flanders digs deeper into the Modi agenda with Bloomberg economist Abhishek Gupta.

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Will the Conservatives loosen the purse strings and spur a growth revival? Can Labour realize its vision of radically reshaping the U.K. economy? How will the course of Brexit be altered?

Stephanie Flanders tackles these questions and more in a preview of Great Britain’s Dec. 12 vote to elect a new government.

Flanders leads a live-recorded panel discussion with three important thinkers: Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Bronwen Maddox of the Institute for Government and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe.

Then Bloomberg U.K. economist Dan Hanson joins Flanders for a closer look at the implications of three possible results of the election.

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What does the business of flashy superyachts for the megarich have to do with the health of the U.S. economy?

A lot, it turns out. They’re often seen as a barometer of consumer spending, and as the holiday shopping season gets in full swing, all eyes are on American wallets.

On this week’s episode of “Stephanomics,” Bloomberg reporter Michael Sasso visits a big boat show in Florida only to discover that sales aren’t looking so great. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks with Carl Riccadonna, Bloomberg’s chief U.S. economist, about his somewhat downbeat macro view of holiday spending.

As a bonus, you’ll hear some additional insights from last week’s New Economy Forumin Beijing. Jorg Kukies, Germany’s deputy finance minister, talks with Flanders about the impact Brexit will have on Europe’s biggest economy.

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This week’s episode of Stephanomics comes to you from Beijing, where Bloomberg hosted the second annual New Economy Forum, bringing together global leaders to discuss how to solve the world’s biggest challenges. 

Stephanie Flanders first interviews Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s foremost experts on climate change and economics—a combined subject that’s gained increasing urgency for policymakers. Stern is a former adviser to the U.K. government and now chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics.

Then we have Zhu Min, a former senior official at China’s central bank as well as the International Monetary Fund. He joins Flanders to discuss key issues in the global economy as well as the U.S.-China trade war.

Finally, we’ll hear excerpts from a panel discussion on a Bloomberg Economics report called Drivers and Disrupters, addressing the forces threatening the world’s hottest economies. Speakers include Tom Orlik, Bloomberg’s chief economist, and former HSBC Chief Economist Stephen King.

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Beneath the tariffs, counter-tariffs and on-again off-again negotiations between the U.S. and China over trade policy, a deeper confrontation is brewing—one with potentially bigger consequences.

In a punitive, short-term move, the U.S. is preventing Chinese companies from using some American technologies. But longer-term, the tactic may trigger a “Silicon Curtain” behind which China develops homegrown tech to rival America’s.

Carolynn Look reports from China on how this is playing out for businesses big and small, and host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik about what it all means for China’s economy.

Then we switch gears, in more ways than one, and turn to a new list of the best (and worst) cities around for drivers. Flanders and Bloomberg economy editor Zoe Schneeweiss discuss what makes a metropolis great for automobiles. As it turns out, what’s good for driving can also be good for walking and bicycling.

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The 2020 U.S. presidential election may be a year away but one policy idea is already stirring fierce debate: a big-time tax on the richest Americans. Katia Dmitrieva reports on why Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want to implement a wealth tax, and how it might work. Many economists have also been warming to the idea of taxing wealth. But you can't help noticing that most of the European countries that have tried wealth taxes have later junked them. Host Stephanie Flanders talks with Bloomberg economists Johanna Jeansson and Maeva Cousin about the death of wealth taxes in Sweden and France and the possible lessons for the US. 

Then Stephanie talks with Frankfurt-based economy editor Jana Randow about two major milestones in the region: Christine Lagarde taking over as president of the European Central Bank and the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Randow -- the co-author of a recent book about outgoing ECB head Mario Draghi -- explains how Lagarde is likely to differ from her predecessor. She then shares her personal memories of November 1989 from the standpoint of a child growing up in East Germany.

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Economies represent the ultimate sum of millions of people and businesses making millions of decisions. And if enough of those businesses are frozen on how to respond to the U.S.-China trade war -- like the owner of a Los Angeles cosmetics company featured in this week's episode -- then the U.S. economy will be in trouble. Sarah McGregor, editor of Bloomberg's real-economy team, reports on how the businesswoman, Dara Venekeo, is being forced to consider whether to relocate her hard-built supply chains from China to another country, such as Vietnam.

The conversation on supply chains continues as host Stephanie Flanders visits Singapore this week and checks in with Asia economy reporter Michelle Jamrisko there on how the situation is playing out in Southeast Asia and particularly Vietnam. Stephanie also talks with Asia economy editor Malcolm Scott on how the China-dependent economies of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand might need to resort to unorthodox monetary measures to shore up growth.

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What is the future for international institutions like the International Monetary Fund - and what, if anything, can it do to help Argentina? These are just some of the topics in a special episode from the annual meetings of the Fund and World Bank in Washington. Stephanie speaks about the future of the world on an all-star panel with former India central bank chief Raghuram Rajan and ex-Bundesbank head Axel Weber, along with Columbia University professor Glenn Hubbard, a White House economic adviser under George W. Bush. She also gets a chance to ask Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan - who helps set US interest rates - whether central banks can even control inflation anymore.

But first, Latin America economic editor Bruce Douglas reports from Buenos Aires on just how deep Argentina's problems go -- and whether they can be fixed. It's all part of Stephanomics's lead-up to Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in Beijing in November, where global governance will be high on the agenda.

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Bloomberg's Travel Genius podcast is back! After clocking another hundred-thousand miles in the sky, hosts Nikki Ekstein and Mark Ellwood have a whole new series of flight hacking, restaurant sleuthing, and hotel booking tips to inspire your own getaways—along with a who's who roster of itinerant pros ready to spill their own travel secrets. From a special episode on Disney to a master class on packing, we'll go high, low, east, west, and everywhere in between. The new season starts Nov. 6.

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The macroeconomic kind of economist tends to get the most attention - talking about growth, inflation and whether interest rates should go up or down. But it’s the micro economists working away quietly on smaller parts of the economy who have typically done most to change the world. This week Stephanie Flanders talks to one of them - Harvard University’s Michael Kremer about winning the 2019 Nobel Prize for Economics with two other researchers - and how their work has transformed the way we tackle global poverty. There’s something for macro fans as well with a high level discussion on the future of monetary policy. 

Should central banks be trying to save the planet - and are there tools to fight the next recession which do not disproportionately benefit the rich? These are Just two of the questions up for debate in a panel Stephanie chaired this week featuring Claudio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements, former Bank of England policy makers Sir Charlie Bean and Dame Kate Barker, and Graham Turner, founder of GFC and adviser to the U.K. Labour Party.

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Growth has been slowing around the developed world — not just in recent months but for decades. One potential reason is that women are having fewer babies. On this week's Stephanomics, reporter Jeannette Neumann visits a region in Spain with the lowest fertility rate in Europe to find out why this is happening and what it means for the global economy. Host Stephanie Flanders also talks with Darrell Bricker, co-author of the book “Empty Planet,” about his theory that the global population will begin to decline.

One way to prop up the birthrate could be to offer employees a better work-life balance. Recent U.S. data showed that people who work at home aren't just growing in number but also, on average, earn more than those who commute. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Justin Fox joins Stephanie to consider the implications of this striking fact.

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Stephanie Flanders returns with a new season of Stephanomics, bringing on-the-ground insights from Bloomberg's reporters and economists into the forces driving the global economy. On this week's episode, senior trade reporter Shawn Donnan heads to the front lines of the US-China trade war in Wisconsin, and Stephanie talks through its global impact with Penny Goldberg, chief economist at the World Bank.

One silver lining to all this, says Goldberg, is that more attention is finally being paid to trade policy. She also discusses whether this period will mark the high point for globalization - and confirms the suspicions of manufacturers that Shawn spoke to out in the field, who believe that they are paying the tariffs - not China, as claimed so often by Donald Trump. 

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Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, returns to bring you another season of on-the-ground insight into the forces driving global growth and jobs today. From the cosmetics maker in California grappling with Donald Trump's tariff war, to the coffee vendor in Argentina burdened by the nation's never-ending crises, Bloomberg's 130-plus economic reporters and economists around the world head into the field to tell these stories. Stephanomics will also look hard at the solutions, in the lead-up to Bloomberg’s second New Economy Forum in Beijing, where a select group of business leaders, politicians and thinkers will gather to chart a better course on trade, global governance, climate and more. Stephanomics will help lead the way for those debates not just with Bloomberg journalists but also discussion and analysis from world-renowned experts into the forces that are moving markets and reshaping the world. The new season of Stephanomics launches Oct. 3.

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On this new season of Prognosis, we look at the spread of infections that are resistant to antimicrobial medicines. You're probably more likely to have heard of these as superbugs. Their rise has been described as a silent tsunami of catastrophic proportions. We travel to countries on the frontline of the crisis, and explore how hospitals and doctors around the world are fighting back. Prognosis’ new season launches Sept. 5. 

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Under pressure from President Donald Trump, Mexico is cracking down on migrants coming from its own southern neighbor, Guatemala. But the hit to the local economy could have unanticipated consequences for the U.S. Bloomberg's Eric Martin reports from the border, while Stephanie takes stock of these and other challenges for international economic cooperation at a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.  This month also marks 75 years since the Allied powers gathered at the Mount Washington hotel to lay the groundwork for the post-World War II economic order. At a conference commemorating the anniversary she talks with Meg Lundsager, the U.S.'s representative at the IMF from 2007 to 2014 and Nouriel Roubini - the economist famed for predicting the financial crisis who's recently become a big critic of the speculation in cryptocurrencies. 

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The yellow-vest protests that shook France last year may be over, but the forces of political and economic anger continue to ripple around the world. Stephanie visits the City of Lights to speak with two key figures about how the country is faring and how major nations' finance chiefs are tackling these issues -- as well as Facebook's proposed digital currency, Libra -- at this week's Group of Seven meeting in France. Listen to her interviews with French Finance Minister Bruno le Maire and Laurence Boone, chief economist at the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

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Donald Trump’s trade policies have created winners and losers around the world. Among the big losers so far, count Spanish olive farmers. Their exports to the U.S. were hit with a huge tariff last year. U.S. officials claimed they had been undercutting California olive growers by selling Spanish olives on the cheap. Though barely a blip on the global trade war, it has been very bad news for the olive groves of southern Spain. But business is booming for Europe’s aluminum industry, especially its exports to the U.S., despite President Trump’s tariffs. What gives? 

Bloomberg's Jeannette Neumann wades into the worlds of olives and aluminum to figure out what's going on, then Stephanie talks through some of the many other unintended consequences of U.S. trade wars with Bloomberg trade tsar, Brendan Murray. She and Executive Editor Simon Kennedy also chat about the political pressure being piled on the US Federal Reserve and many other central banks. 

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This week we bring you a special conversation between host Stephanie Flanders and Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf. They try to make sense of the rise in populism in recent years, what it means for the global economy, and whether it spells the end of liberal democracy. The event was recorded in London on July 1.

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This week we focus on the two giants of the global economy: China and India. At first glance, China seems to be shrugging off the effects of U.S. tariffs, but Bloomberg economists looked closer and found that Chinese exports to the US in 1,000s of product categories had been hit hard and this trade had not also been replaced by U.S. production or exports from other countries. Host Stephanie Flanders gets the full story from Bloomberg economist Maeva Cousin. We also explore a great economic puzzle of recent times:  how can India grow by 6%-7% a year for 20 years without creating jobs for half of its potential workers?    

The world’s second most-populous economy has seen a step change in its economic performance in the past 20 years but job growth keeps coming up short. Less than half of the working-age population is in work or even looking for a job -- and nearly 80% of women are not in the workforce at all. Anirban Nag and Vrishti Beniwal go in search of an answer on the streets of New Delhi, and Stephanie asks Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mihir Sharma what it all means for India’s newly re-elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi earned the ire of Donald Trump this week with his farewell speech at a major annual conference. Editor Paul Gordon was there at the prestigious gathering in Sintra, Portugal, and breaks down Draghi's comments with host Stephanie Flanders. 

Then hear a special recording of Stephanie's engaging live panel discussion this week in London with two of the city's most prominent economic voices, HSBC Chief Economist Janet Henry and the Chief Economic Advisor to the UK Treasury, Clare Lombardelli. They discuss an increasingly hazy outlook for the world economy and offer their unique perspective on women and diversity in the economics profession -- or lack thereof.

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Workers around the globe are in for a shock in coming decades as automation transforms the workplace and maybe destroys their jobs. But for Nobel-winning economist Christopher Pissarides, it's not all dismal. Host Stephanie Flanders has an extended talk with the London School of Economics professor about the upsides of automation and how Europe may actually be well-positioned to survive this transition. They also discuss the risk of another Eurozone crisis and the need for a broader measure of economic success than national output or GDP. Then Stephanie catches up with Bloomberg reporter Shawn Donnan for an update on the U.S.-China trade war and his observations from a recent visit to the Asian nation. 

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If you live in the U.K., your workweek could soon be a day shorter if the political winds tilt more heavily toward the left. Jess Shankleman reports on how the proposal is gaining momentum and how it might affect Britain, then Bloomberg Opinion columnist Noah Smith joins host Stephanie Flanders for a deeper look at the economic questions raised by the four-day week.

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On this week's episode, former Obama administration official Wendy Cutler draws on her deep experience as a trade negotiator to offer her views on the tariff standoff between the U.S. and China. Guest host Tom Orlik, Bloomberg's chief economist, also gets an inside look at the talks from reporter Jenny Leonard in Washington.

Meanwhile, reporter Ivan Levingston sheds light on how Israel is desperate to fill jobs and is turning to a religious group that's also crucial to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition.

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“What Goes Up” is a new show from Bloomberg that tracks the main themes influencing global markets. Hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan speak with guests about the wildest movements in markets and what they mean for your investments. The show is out now, and can be found on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen.

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Marty Markowitz had his share of problems. His parents had recently died. He had troubles at work. A failing relationship. He needed someone to help him through this rough patch in his life. So he decided to get some professional help from a psychiatrist. What he did not count on, was what happened in his life over the next twenty-nine years. This is a story about power, control, and turning to the wrong person for help.  Listen now at bloomberg.com/shrinknextdoor

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The longest economic expansion in the developed world may not be much longer for this world -- and that fear helped drive the shock election result in Australia last week. In the country where GDP has been growing for an amazing almost 28 years, Bloomberg's Chris Bourke explores how the cratering real estate market is threatening the first recession since Vanilla Ice topped the music charts. 

Host Stephanie Flanders also talks with Bloomberg editor Malcolm Scott and economist Tamara Henderson about what the conservative government's re-election means for the economy Down Under. Then Stephanie catches up with Federal Reserve reporter Chris Condon about the central bank's sweeping review of how it approaches policy. 

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Germany's engineering prowess has driven the nation's economic success for decades. Now that model is being questioned thanks to rising protectionism, slowing global growth, new technologies and Germany's own underinvestment in its infrastructure. Bloomberg's Catherine Bosley has a report from the factory floor, then host Stephanie Flanders talks with columnist Ferdinando Giugliano about what's ailing Europe's powerhouse. 

Stephanie also hears from economic editor Paul Gordon about another hot topic where Germany's influence is uncertain: the race for the next president of the European Central Bank.

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Where are there more millennials than in North America, Europe and the Middle East combined, who are vastly different from their parents' generation? China, of course. Kevin Hamlin reports on how these young people are redefining the world's second-biggest economy -- and also the world. 

Host Stephanie Flanders then turns to Andrew Browne, head of Bloomberg's New Economy Forum, and Bloomberg chief economist Tom Orlik for their perspective what makes Chinese millennials special and the impact they will have. Finally, Bloomberg senior trade reporter Shawn Donnan returns to Stephanomics to talk about the latest developments in the U.S.-China tariff war.

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These days about one in three bites of food you eat wouldn’t be possible without commercial bee pollination. And the economic value of insect pollination worldwide is estimated to be about $217 billion. But as important as bees have become for farming, there’s also increasing signs that bees are in trouble. In the decade-plus since the first cases of Colony Collapse Disorder were reported, bees are still dying in record numbers, and important questions remain unanswered. On this new miniseries, host Adam Allington and environment reporters David Schultz and Tiffany Stecker travel to all corners of the honeybee ecosystem from Washington, D.C., to the California almond fields, and orchards of the upper Midwest to find answers to these questions.

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Many older Americans are living longer and are happy to keep working. Others can't afford to retire. Those are just a couple of the reasons why people over age 65 are swelling the ranks of U.S. employees in recent decades. On this week's episode of Stephanomics, Matthew Boesler takes a closer look at this phenomenon and how it's reshaping the world's largest economy. 

Stephanie Flanders delves deeper into this issue in an interview with Teresa Ghilarducci, an economist at the New School for Social Research, from the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California. Then Stephanie visits Bloomberg's Los Angeles bureau to chat with reporter Anousha Sakoui about the new economics of global cinema following the record-setting haul of the latest Avengers film.

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Will a dose of free-market policies -- from a populist politician, no less -- finally bring Latin America's biggest economy back to life? On this week's episode of Stephanomics, Bruce Douglas visits the region's busiest port to get a taste of what's ailing Brazil -- and the possible cure. 

Stephanie also brings you the second part of her interview with Harvard University economist Larry Summers -- the former U.S. Treasury secretary and Obama adviser -- with his comments on Brazil's economy and the new thinking on progressive U.S. fiscal policy. Finally, Stephanie talks with editor Catarina Saraiva about Bloomberg’s dreaded Misery Index.

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Of the many forces driving the wave of hiring across the U.S. in recent years, technology is typically not on the list because automation and artificial intelligence tend to be seen as job-killing rather than job-enhancing. On this week's episode of Stephanomics, reporter Craig Torres visits a hospital where new technologies are actually creating the need for more -- not fewer -- employees.

Then, Stephanie interviews Larry Summers -- the Harvard University economist and former U.S. Treasury secretary -- for his predictions on technology and employment, plus his thoughts on the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve. Finally, Stephanie talks with Bloomberg reporter Jeanna Smialek about how central bankers may be reduced to using what one economist calls "poor man's monetary policy."

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On this new show from Bloomberg, hosts Mike Regan and Sarah Ponczek speak with expert guests each week about the main themes influencing global markets. They explore everything from stocks to bonds to currencies and commodities, and how each asset class affects trading in the others. Whether you’re a financial professional or just a curious retirement saver, What Goes Up keeps you apprised of the latest buzz on Wall Street and what the wildest movements in markets will mean for your investments.

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The trade war between the U.S. and China is taking a toll on growth in the world's two largest economies, but there's another nation where the tariff battle is producing a clear winner: Vietnam. 

This week, reporters Michelle Jamrisko and Uyen Nguyen visit a furniture maker in Hanoi to get a sense of how companies are profiting from the U.S.-China tensions. Stephanie also talks with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Daniel Moss about the trade war and other forces shaping Asia's economies, then catches up with Bloomberg trade-coverage czar Brendan Murray about the implications of an interesting recent World Trade Organization decision. 

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Fortnite may be the biggest video-game phenomenon with more than 200 million registered players. It's also a good place to start if you want to understand globalization -- and the new directions the global economy is taking today. 

In the premiere episode of Stephanomics, hosted by Bloomberg Economics head Stephanie Flanders, reporter Shawn Donnan explains how Fortnite has not only bypassed the U.S.-China trade war, but is also a key example of what's happening in the new digital economy. Then Stephanie talks with economist Richard Baldwin about how technology is crossing borders and changing the labor market.

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Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg's head of economics, takes you on location each week to bring the global economy to life. From Asia's factories to Brazil's ports and America's hospital corridors, Stephanomics delivers on-the-ground reporting from the Bloomberg Economics team around the world and talks with experts for analysis of hot topics.

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Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg's senior executive editor for economics, has some exciting news about what's coming in the Benchmark feed.

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On this new show from Bloomberg, hosts Francesca Levy and Rebecca Greenfield navigate the productivity industry by way of their own experiences. In each episode, one of the two becomes a human guinea pig as she tries to solve a specific work-related problem. Using the advice of so-called productivity experts, the duo tackles obstacles like ineffective to-do lists, overflowing inboxes and unruly meetings. Follow along with their attempts, insights and missteps, and maybe find a solution that will work for you.

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Most U.S. economic data, such as jobs and consumer spending, is based not on actual data, but on surveys of Americans and businesses. What if you could look at every single purchase that people make, or peek at the bank accounts of every small business? The JPMorgan Chase Institute is trying to do just that -- using the bank's vast customer data -- and sniff out trends in the economy that are invisible in the official numbers.

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Wildfires and hurricanes are causing increasing destruction, part of how climate change is reshaping economies around the world. There are also business and investment opportunities in dealing with the effects -- though you may have to think in the very long term.

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With power-shifting elections, emerging-market turbulence and a trade war making waves, how does it all add up for the world economy in 2019? Catherine Mann, chief global economist at Citigroup, joins Benchmark for a tour of major economies including the U.S., China and Japan, highlighting what's going to be OK, what's not, and why it's wrong to think of "emerging markets" as their own entity.

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Look beyond headlines on unemployment and job creation and you'll see a bigger transformation. The global market for labor was boosted for three decades by a handful of historical flukes now going into reverse. Robots everywhere, including China, will be at the forefront of this change, says Andrew Schwedel, a partner at Bain & Co. He tells Bloomberg Opinion's Daniel Moss and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News why the era of plentiful labor is ending.  

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What’s the most sure-fire way to get a flight upgrade? How can you find the best, secret local restaurants by asking just one question? What's the first thing you should do when you get into a hotel room? On Bloomberg's new podcast Travel Genius, we'll give you those answers—and plenty more—as hosts Nikki Ekstein and Mark Ellwood quiz the world’s most experienced globetrotters for their tried-and-true travel hacks. Listen weekly, and even your work trips will go from a necessary evil to an expert art form. Plus, you'll be padding out your bucket list with dreams of amazing future vacations. 

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Where does a medical cure come from? 100 years ago, it wasn't uncommon for scientists to test medicines by taking a dose themselves. As medical technologies get cheaper and more accessible, patients and DIY tinkerers are trying something similar—and mainstream medicine is racing to catch up. Prognosis explores the leading edge of medical advances, and asks who gets—or should get—access to them. We look at how innovation happens, when it fails, and what it means to the people with a disease trying to feel better, live longer, or avoid death.

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Paul Volcker made his mark as the inflation-defeating chairman of the Federal Reserve. Now at age 91, he's just published a new memoir called "Keeping At It." His collaborator happens to be Bloomberg Markets editor Christine Harper, who shares the inside story of what it was like to work with him.

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The housing market is one of the few sectors of the U.S. economy that isn't sharing in the recent pickup in growth. Purchases are slowing down, builders aren't building so much, and some people are even reluctant to post their properties for sale. Scott Lanman digs into the details with Bloomberg reporter Prashant Gopal and Bloomberg economist Yelena Shulyatyeva.

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Bloomberg’s head of economics Stephanie Flanders calls on Bloomberg's worldwide network of reporters and expert commentators to cast a fresh eye on looming challenges for the world economy which affect us all.

This 6 part podcast combines on the ground reporting with expert discussion on the future of cities, finance and technology, trade, global governance and making growth more inclusive. It's the start of a global conversation on how to confront these issues which will continue in Singapore in early November, when around 400 top business leaders and thinkers from across the globe will gather in Singapore for the first New Economy Forum.

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In the final episode of our special series on China's Belt and Road initiative, we go to Europe to learn more about how that continent is involved with the giant infrastructure project. Bloomberg reporter Tom Mackensie takes us to a sprawling port in Athens dubbed the "Dragon's Head," and run by China in partnership with Costco; and then to a small town in Germany that is being transformed by the project.

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The creation story of the first exchange-traded fund is actually the best way to understand how they work. And it's not just educational, it's entertaining. Like the PC and the MP3, the story of the creation of SPY -- which turned 30 this year -- is full of characters, twists and turns, and subplots. In the end, the product launched an industry that's reshaping not just investing but the entire financial ecosystem. This six-episode miniseries will weave together interviews with the founding fathers and other key players that help investors better understand the ETF and how we got here.

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Why do some emerging markets consistently succeed while others flame out? Anu Madgavkar, partner at McKinsey Global Institute, shares the secret sauce with Bloomberg Opinion's Daniel Moss.  

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Don't fret too much about tariffs and trade deficits. The real competition between the U.S. and China will be in artificial intelligence and data, says Kai-Fu Lee, author of "AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order." Lee explores who wins in this struggle for influence, and how it affects workers.

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In the third episode of this four-part series on China's Belt and Road initiative, we look at Kenya and how Chinese investment in cargo and commuter railways between Mombasa and Nairobi is impacting economic development in the region. Bloomberg TV producer Rosalind Chin and series host David Tweed discuss how strengthening ties between these two countries may play out.

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The job numbers are strong and GDP growth looks great, but is it really the "best economy" in U.S. history as President Donald Trump says? Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University professor and author of the 2016 book “The Rise and Fall of American Growth,'' dives into the history and discusses what's not so great about the current situation. 

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For all the current strength of American economy, the country lacks the economic clout to bend the world to its liking. The U.S. lacks a foreign policy that truly reflects the shift in commercial gravity toward Asia, says Jeffrey Sachs, one of the world's most prominent economists. Sachs tells Bloomberg Opinion's Daniel Moss and Bloomberg News's Scott Lanman that it's time for a new brand of statecraft to match the retreat in U.S. economic muscle. 

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In the second of this four-part series on China's Belt and Road initiative, we talk to Haslinda Amin, who hosts the second episode of Bloomberg's TV series on the initiative and has traveled extensively through Southeast and Central Asia for the project. She looks at the complex ways countries in the region view China's sprawling infrastructure investment. India, for example, has one of the world's largest rail networks, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has committed in excess of 3 billion dollars to the country's transportation system. This episode explores the political and strategic reasons China is interested in contributing to boosting India's infrastructure.

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Can South America's largest economy get any worse? It may all depend on the outcome of next month's presidential election in Brazil. The campaign has already seen its share of drama, and investors are spooked about a return to heavy government intervention in the economy that could see banks forced to offer cheap credit. Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss discuss the election with Bloomberg editor Bruce Douglas in Brasilia. 

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The force of the trade war unleashed by Donald Trump goes beyond peeved farmers and pricier gadgets. The entire economic model of modern corporations is up for grabs, just as China is undergoing a huge internal shift that's likely to upend supply chains. Frances Lim of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts shares with Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion her conclusions from a recent trip to the epicenter. 

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As a special bonus, we’re bringing Benchmark listeners the first peek at a four-part series on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. President Xi Jinping calls it the project of the century: a massive infrastructure spending program that hopes to enhance trade and connectivity throughout Eurasia. Through a networks of projects that span the transportation, finance, telecom and power industries, the economic corridors and maritime roads that span Eurasia could fundamentally change the dynamics of global business. In the first of four episodes, we find out what Belt and Road is, and why it’s been described as everything from “an exercise in empire building” to “a new world order.”

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The auto industry is being buffeted from all sides. Consumer tastes have shifted, forcing manufacturers to retool product lines. President Donald Trump is threatening tariffs on imported autos. And the move toward electric vehicles and autonomous cars could have profound implications for our world. Ellen Hughes-Cromwick of the University of Michigan, a former chief economist at Ford and the Commerce Department, discusses these topics with Bloomberg's Scott Lanman.

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Economic divisions in the U.S. brought an end to World War II as much as the atomic bombs. On the anniversary of Japan's surrender, historian Marc Gallicchio explains how bitter fights between business, unions and Congress marred the final months of the conflict. 

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Why do so many Americans ignore their hip pocket? Portions of the country where citizens are increasingly dependent on government programs, like Kentucky, have become the most conservative. This transformation in the nation's economics and politics goes beyond Donald Trump; some of the most anti-government lawmakers come from Kentucky. Cornell University's Suzanne Mettler discusses this paradox with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.   

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Turkey's currency plunged this month after President Donald Trump stepped up economic sanctions in a dispute over a detained pastor. It was already going downhill after the nation's leader vowed to shun the traditional playbook of dealing with soaring inflation. And global investors are spooked. Onur Ant, a reporter for Bloomberg in Turkey, discusses the situation and how we got here with Scott Lanman. Note: This episode was recorded on Tuesday, Aug. 14.

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Bitcoin was recently called a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster by one of the world's leading authorities on finance and economics. But underneath that sensational description, cryptocurrencies are saddled with underlying technological flaws that will likely prevent them from living up to the hype or merely becoming a more commonly used currency. Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland, discusses the topic with Bloomberg News economics editor Scott Lanman.

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It's not tastebuds or the latest fetish at trendy health food stores that's driving the boom in bug gastronomy. Broad economic forces like climate change and population growth mean insects and grubs are appearing on more menus around the world. Bloomberg's Agnieszka de Sousa talks with Scott and Dan about how little critters can avert a food crisis, while Olympia Yarger talks about her bug-food startup. 

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President Donald Trump's trade war is hitting a wide variety of goods produced in America, and Alaska's fisheries are caught in the crossfire. The industry has become highly dependent on ties with China, thanks to shipments that head there for processing and are then exported again. How is a state that voted big for Trump and Republicans in 2016 coping with the threat to one of its most vital economic sectors? Alexa Tonkovich, executive director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, and Ralph Townsend, an economist at the University of Alaska Anchorage, discuss the issue with Scott Lanman and Reade Pickert of Bloomberg News.

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Trump's election wasn't a fluke. Nor are tariffs a passing fad. They reflect deep-seated trauma at the country's decline relative to China. So enraged and befuddled is the U.S. that it's a danger to itself, its closest allies and the global trading system, says former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr. A long-time lover of Americana and leader of the Chester A. Arthur Society, Carr is no crazy leftie. He tells Dan Moss of Bloomberg Opinion and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News why he's just about given up on the U.S.   

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How many times have you heard India and China mentioned in the same breath? We may be looking at the South Asian giant all wrong. The best comparison might be with the robber-baron era in America, rather than China's state capitalism, says author James Crabtree. Crabtree explains to Dan and Scott what inspired his new book “The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India's New Gilded Age” and how India has become the financial powerhouse of world cricket.  

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Is a trade war or surging debt the biggest threat to China's economy? Try declining fertility. While the nation recently relaxed its one-child policy, such moves are unlikely to head off a projected plunge in population that will constrain the country in coming decades. In the second of a two-part episode on falling global fertility, Scott Lanman talks with Cai Yong, an expert in Chinese demographics at the University of North Carolina, about the challenges facing the world's second-biggest economy.

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Around the world, women are having far fewer children than they were 50 years ago. This decline in fertility threatens to cause falling populations in many countries, which weighs on economic growth because it means fewer workers who can produce goods and services. In the first of a two-part episode of Benchmark, Scott Lanman talks with Elizabeth Katkin, author of the new book "Conceivability," about why it's so hard for many couples to overcome struggles with fertility -- and how countries differ on their approach to the issue.

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The U.S. and China are on the verge of a trade war, one that President Donald Trump says will be easy to win. So how will it really impact China's economy? Is the nation's GDP really growing at an incredible 7 percent rate, or is it about to collapse from a mountain of debt and aging population? Jeff Kearns, a Bloomberg editor who just finished a three-year stint in Beijing, helps separate myth from fact with host Scott Lanman, himself a former China economy editor.

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Globally, women make 50 percent less than men. In the U.S. and U.K., it's about 20 percent. Why? What are some countries trying to do to fix it? And is this even possible? Rebecca Greenfield, host of Bloomberg's "The Pay Check" podcast, joins Scott Lanman to discuss some of the findings and stories from her show.

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With the U.S. jobless rate at the lowest level since 2000, where can employers turn to fill positions and keep up with demand? There's a huge corps of Baby Boomers and slightly younger Americans who are perfectly willing to do so. But businesses may need to overcome their inclination to go younger -- and if they do, it could prove profitable for them and the economy. Jean Setzfand of AARP and Keith Hutchison of energy utility National Grid talk with Bloomberg's Scott Lanman and Chris Condon about the benefits of employing older workers.

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No need to be caught off guard by the latest tweet from Donald Trump about tariffs and China. The underlying nature of Western economic links with the Asian nation today follows a pattern set by events almost 200 years ago. Britain, then the world's pre-eminent industrial power, wanted to reduce its trade deficit with China and muscled Beijing to reduce barriers. The result was a conflict that weakened Imperial China irrevocably, but framed President Xi Jinping's view of foreign relations. Stephen R. Platt, author of a new history of the opium conflict, speaks with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion about how much -- and how little -- has changed.

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The U.S. is producing more oil than ever. So why are oil prices rising so much that a gallon of gasoline now costs almost $3? Wasn't shale oil supposed to make OPEC irrelevant? How much higher can prices go, and how is it all impacting the global economy? Javier Blas, chief energy correspondent for Bloomberg News, discusses all this and more with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.

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In Argentina, the cost of borrowing is shooting up to stratospheric levels with interest rates rising to 40 percent. The country's leadership promised a new era that put this sort of trajectory behind it. But now, Argentina finds itself in talks with the International Monetary Fund for loans to shore up its finances. Federico Kaune, head of emerging markets fixed income at UBS Asset Management, tells Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion how Argentina got to this point, how the country can make it right and how this is part of a larger challenge facing emerging markets.

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Listeners are probably familiar with China's economic and strategic ambitions in the South China Sea. But have you heard about what China is up to in Vanuatu? (Hint: It's not the beaches.) China is pouring money into this South Pacific nation by investing in local infrastructure projects. That's got the region's traditional powers, the U.S. and Australia, breaking out in a sweat, and it’s raising eyebrows in France, a colonial power. Jonathan Pryke of the Lowy Institute explains to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion what’s at stake.   

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It’s a big, expensive, global mystery. Why do women still make less money—a lot less—than men? In the US, the average woman makes 80 cents to every dollar a man makes. Launching May 9, the Pay Check is an in-depth investigation into what that 20 percent difference looks like. In this miniseries we'll show you how the gender pay gap plays out in real life. We'll hear from Lily Ledbetter, Mo’Nique, and a lot of other women who weren’t happy to be paid less. We'll find out what happens when a whole country tries to tackle the pay gap. And we'll talk to some women who are taking things into their own hands.

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The U.S. unemployment rate may be at the lowest level since 2000, but some economists want the federal government to go further and guarantee a job for every American. Several potential Democratic presidential candidates support the idea, but the plan faces plenty of hurdles, from how to pay for it to how it would actually get up and running. Economics professor L. Randall Wray, one of the plan's principal authors, and Evercore ISI analyst Ernie Tedeschi discuss the issue with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg Opinion.

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From self-driving cars to robot-powered factories, artificial intelligence is taking over significant pieces of the global economy. But while this is good news for the businesses incorporating robots into their workplaces, it also means more and more people will lose their jobs to computers. Joshua Gans, co-author of the recent book "Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence," explains to hosts Scott Lanman and Christopher Condon what this shift means for the economy, and how it will also impact issues like inequality, monopolies and geopolitical competition. 

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For years, oil was the major determinant of which countries rose to -- and lost -- power in the global economy. Today, that commodity increasingly is water. This week on Benchmark, we hear about the water crisis in Cape Town, where authorities are warning they may need to turn off the taps, from local Bloomberg editor Robert Brand. Then, we take a journey through global water issues with Helen Mountford of the World Resources Institute. They speak with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.

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It's been a wild ride for investors in the U.S. stock market these past couple months. Yet for all the chaos on Wall Street, Main Street seems to be doing fine. So are equities signaling trouble for the economy, or will this storm blow over? Jim Paulsen, a veteran market strategist with a doctorate in economics, gives his take to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.

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What if it's not the economy, stupid? The Great Recession and the long, moderate expansion that's followed gets blamed for a lot of political upheaval. But, William Galston of the Brookings Institution says that's a misreading. The former adviser to President Bill Clinton tells Bloomberg News' Jeanna Smialek and Bloomberg View's Daniel Moss that the populist wave moving across the world is also born out of anxiety about immigration. 

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You've heard about Xi Jinping now becoming China's leader for life. But did you know about his new economic team? They are the ones who could help direct -- or deflect -- a possible trade war between the U.S. and China. China economy expert Nicholas Lardy gives the lowdown on these men to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.

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It may be hard to remember, but not too long ago, hailing a taxi in many cities was often a hassle. Ever since companies like Uber and Lyft entered the world, it's become a lot easier for consumers to catch a ride -- and a lot tougher for drivers to make a living. Henry Farber, a Princeton University economist, joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explain the dynamics of this industry -- and how it may be upended once again by driverless cars.

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Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum don't add up to a trade war. It's more like a frontier skirmish. But, what would a real conflict look like? Who would win and who would lose? Shannon O'Neil of the Council on Foreign Relations joins Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View to explore these questions, and what tariffs might mean for you.

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The North American Free Trade Agreement has been labeled everything from an unfair deal for U.S. workers to a boon for commerce across the continent. Less well known is that it's helped cause a big expansion in Mexican waistlines. Simon Barquera, executive director of the Nutrition and Health Research Center at Mexico's National Institute of Public Health, explains the nation's rise in obesity to Scott Lanman and Bloomberg intern Shelly Hagan.

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The Maldives, known as an exotic and luxurious tropical vacation spot, is fast becoming one of the world's most important geopolitical footballs. China is investing heavily in the island chain in a bid for economic and strategic supremacy, stoking the ire of India -- just miles away. Eurasia Group's Shailesh Kumar explains to Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View how this honeymoon destination got caught up in a great-power rivalry.

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Decrypted returns on March 6th with a brand new season. Here's a sneak peek of what's in store. We'll be releasing new episodes every Tuesday starting next week. 

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There's a crisis in coffee. On Java, the Indonesian island that gives your morning shot its nickname, the bean is struggling. A booming Asian middle class is spurring demand just as climate change is eroding farmland and changing the taste along the way. Indonesia is now being forced to import coffee from Brazil and Vietnam just to keep up. It's a bit like Saudi Arabia importing oil. Jamal Gawi, a climate change consultant in Jakarta, explains what's going on to Bloomberg News' Scott Lanman and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View. 

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Almost one-tenth of Denmark's labor force is made up of foreign workers. But with quality of life standards increasing in eastern European countries, many of these people are considering returning to their native nations. Karen Haekkerup, CEO of the Danish Agriculture and Food Council, talks with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View on what this means for Denmark, which is already facing a severe labor shortage.

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This month, Bloomberg is excited to bring you a brand new show. Every Friday on What'd You Miss This Week, we'll feature the most interesting interviews from Bloomberg's daily market close show, "What'd You Miss" hosted by Scarlet Fu, Julia Chatterley and Joe Weisenthal. We want to take you beyond the headlines and bring you a unique perspective on the week's top stories, and those you may just have missed. It's the perfect way to kick off your weekend. Be sure to subscribe now, so you don't miss a thing!

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Amazon, JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway recently announced they're joining forces to tackle America's expensive health care system. Health care is probably the most reliably growing piece of U.S. GDP -- and until recently, a strong driver of inflation -- but that could change as Amazon moves into that space. Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News speaks with Bloomberg reporter Spencer Soper and economist Laura Rosner of MacroPolicy Perspectives about Amazon's history of disrupting industries, and whether or not our current health care system could go the way of bookstores.

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You may have heard of a gender-pay gap in America, but here's a statistic that's really eye-opening: Workers at men's apparel stores earn 56 percent more than employees at womenswear retailers. It's a huge gap, and yet it can be explained in part by supply and demand -- and could even be a sign that worker pay will finally pick up more broadly across the U.S. Bloomberg reporters Katia Dmitrieva and Lindsey Rupp join Benchmark to discuss the topic with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View. 

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What happens to someone's land when the owner dies? In Japan, no one knows. In fact, no one knows who owns more than 10 percent of the nation's landmass -- about 16,000 square miles, equivalent to the size of Denmark. Without knowing who owns the land, it can't be sold or redeveloped -- and that limits economic growth or prevents the government from collecting taxes, at a time when Japan is already suffering from severe depopulation outside of major cities. Bloomberg reporter Yoshi Nohara discusses the issue with Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News and Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View.

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An online discussion board where women are frequent subjects of vitriolic attacks. A lack of diversity in top positions. Strong evidence of discrimination against females. These are all issues that the economics profession is grappling with as part of a broader reckoning with sexual harassment and misconduct in American society. Economist Heidi Hartmann discusses these issues and her petition drive to address misogyny in the field, while Bloomberg reporter Jeanna Smialek talks about her recent coverage of this topic with Daniel Moss of Bloomberg View and Scott Lanman of Bloomberg News.

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The American South will keep rising and Dallas will eclipse New York. The city that never sleeps has had its obituary written plenty of times, but it may just have met its match in native son Donald Trump. His tax-cut law is more than just a deficit-busting giveaway to the rich; it affirms the economic and political rise of the South. Even New York's famed cultural and intellectual scene is in jeopardy along with financial primacy. Jared Dillian, publisher of the `Daily Dirtnap' and a Bloomberg View contributor explains how to Dan and Scott.  

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Whether the U.S. tips into recession this year or not, chances are you won't hear about it until well after it happens. That's because the decision on whether the economy is in a serious slump or merely having a bad day rests with a little-known group of academics who deliberate behind the scenes. Ten years after the economy entered the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the group's chair, Stanford University professor Robert Hall, gives Dan and Scott an inside look into how the panel makes its calls -- and shares his thoughts on whether another recession could be in store soon.

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What will be the most surprising economic development of 2018? Who will be the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What kind of non-economic developments will have biggest impact? Benchmark delivers answers from around the world in part two of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.

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What was the year's most surprising economic development? Who were the most influential people that you haven't heard of? What were the non-economic developments that had the biggest impact? Benchmark goes around the world to deliver the answers in part one of our year-end special. Joining Dan and Scott to give their picks are three members of Bloomberg's global economy team: European editor Jana Randow, Latin America editor Vivianne Rodrigues and Asia correspondent Enda Curran.

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America's GDP is growing at an amazing 3 percent! Unemployment is at the lowest level in 16 years! The stock market is reaching a new record high every day! The U.S. economy is just going to keep on booming, right? Well, not so fast. The stock market might be surging, but the bond market is painting a more nuanced picture. David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, joins Dan and Scott for a tutorial on Treasuries. 

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Wait! There wasn't a trade war this year. Wasn't Donald Trump's election supposed to mean a rejection of open commerce between nations? Bloomberg's Andrew Mayeda explains the surprise increase in goods and services exchanged across national boundaries. Don't think the protectionist bullet's necessarily been dodged; there's more going on than just Trump. Arancha Gonzalez, executive director of the International Trade Center tells Dan and Scott what more needs to be done. Gonzalez shares her perspective on China's expanding role in the international system and opines on Xi Jinping's big speeches in Davos and Geneva.

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For many women and an increasing number of men, it's been hard to get a job again if you take some time off for family reasons and have a long gap on your resume. But that's starting to change in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is at the lowest in almost 17 years. With the labor market getting tighter, companies are looking at potential workers they previously might not have considered. Carol Fishman Cohen, a consultant who helps companies develop programs for returning workers, shares her story of returning to work after having four children and talks about how she is getting companies to take a look at more workers like her. Bloomberg reporter Craig Torres also joins to explain the trend to Dan and Scott. 

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Money goes where it's treated best. That simple truth is a big reason why more and more money—trillions, in fact—flows into a powerful, low-cost tool that's quietly transformed investing in recent years. Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, let you invest in everything from the stock market to gold like never before. This podcast will demystify them—and delight you in the process.

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Benchmark takes the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday and re-runs an episode from March. Post-industrial Midwestern America helped propel Donald Trump to the nation's top job. You've heard that a hundred times. But did you hear about St Louis? A wave of Bosnian refugees, many of them Muslim, arrive in the city, starting in the mid-1990s. The result: a surge in business and job creation, revitalization of the community and help in the transition from a manufacturing to a service economy. Sadik Kukic tells Dan and Michelle about his journey from Balkan concentration camps to a pillar of the local community: He's now president of the Bosnian Chamber of Commerce. What could be more American?

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Figuring out the global economy has always involved looking at the data. But only in recent years has big data, such as that contained in satellite imagery, become a factor in helping understand what's going on. One place where it's particularly useful is China, where official figures are far less comprehensive than in the U.S. and most other developed nations. It's also provided badly-needed insight into poverty across Africa. Scott and Dan get the scoop from UC-Berkeley professor Joshua Blumenstock and Bloomberg China economy editor Jeff Kearns. 

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By picking Jerome Powell to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chief, President Donald Trump is making a historic gamble that his five predecessors did not: appointing a new leader of the central bank in his first term instead of retaining the existing one. That move could have massive ramifications for the U.S. and global economies. But how did the Fed get so powerful? And how powerful is it really? Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, joins Scott and guest host Chris Condon, a Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg, for a deep dive into the Fed's history and how Powell fits in. 

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Mexico just didn't see it coming. The free-trade backlash and anti-Mexican rhetoric that helped fuel Donald Trump's rise came as a surprise to officials and executives in the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Now they are scrambling to save not just NAFTA, but an entire economic model based around global supply chains and ever closer ties with the U.S. Thrown into the mix are elections in Mexico that could propel their own populists into the presidency and congress. Shannon O'Neil from the Council on Foreign Relations explains the stakes to Dan and Scott. Intriguing footnote: Maybe the NAFTA debate is really about China. 

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The biggest challenge refugees face is economic. A couple of financial market insiders are here to help and have recruited some of the biggest names on Wall Street. PIMCO's Greg Sharenow and Trailstone's Michelle Brouhard tell Dan and Scott about their foundation, Interfaith Refugee Project, and how to integrate refugees into the U.S. economic fabric. It's also personal: Greg describes his grandmother's flight from 1930s Germany through Panama.

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How do you create a new country? For Catalonians looking for independence from Spain, secession can give you an emotional high, but what about the bills? Every nation needs a sense of identity and community, of shared heritage and geography. That won't feed people. There's revenue to be collected and bills to be paid, not to mention possibly issuing currency and creating a central bank. And don't forget about picking up the trash. Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo and Maxime Sbaihi explain the building blocks of statehood to Scott and Dan. 

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