The shooting at former US President Trump’s election rally during the weekend has provoked only a limited market reaction. Markets are concerned about policy probabilities, and while individuals may condemn acts of violence against political candidates, they will not necessarily change their policy projections. There is a popular perception that acts of violence against a candidate increase their support, but this is not necessarily true. Analysis is complicated by US polarization, and shorter news cycles from social media. This adds to uncertainty without necessarily changing policy probabilities.