Unhedged

Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go short Trump Media and long the Netflix series, The Perfect Couple. 

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Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian. 

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By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve. 

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The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good.   

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Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. 

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

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The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. 

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Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams.

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Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media. 

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How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. 

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Jim Leaviss started his career in fixed income at the Bank of England, and is ending it 30 years later as the outgoing chief investment officer for fixed income of M&G Investments, which manages more than £100bn in bonds. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with Jim about what he learned over his long career. Also, the two throw down on the best albums of the 90s.  

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Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy. 

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On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight. 

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Tesla’s earnings slightly disappointed last week, but its stock is still valued at nearly 100 times earnings. Does this make sense? And what exactly is Tesla anyway? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and reporter Aiden Reiter take apart Tesla and try to sort out an eclectic basket of electric cars, self-driving taxis, humanoid robots and other grand plans for the future. Also we go long the yen and long bitcoin, for complex reasons.  

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Wall Street withheld tens of millions of dollars in campaign financing to pressure US President Joe Biden to withdraw from November’s election and endorse Kamala Harris. And it worked. But how did Wall Street get so interested in a public prosecutor from San Francisco? And what do financiers hope she’ll bring to the table? Today on the show, deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan walks Robert Armstrong through the whirlwind courtship between Harris and big money. Also, we short Bill Ackman and go long McDonald's. 

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected].

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Presidential candidate Donald Trump has argued for a weaker dollar in recent interviews. That makes some sense. A weaker currency can increase exports and narrow a trade deficit. But how does one weaken a currency, and is it really a good idea? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and new Unhedged newsletter reporter Aiden Reiter discuss the options. Also, we go long tomatoes and short Lamb Weston, notable manufacturer of french fries. 

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

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As the election nears, Wall Street is starting to talk more about what a bet on a second Trump presidency might look like. Today on the show, we cover possible outcomes for inflation, long-term bond yields, currency manipulation, corporate taxes, protectionism, isolationism, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and even the rally in small-cap stocks. Also we go long sterling and short the Russell 2000. 

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

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The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority just released rule revisions that are meant to attract new listings on the country’s exchanges. These include legalising shares that move a lot of the power from investors to founders. Will this be enough to restart London as a hub for innovation? Today on the show Katie Martin and UK business correspondent Michael O’Dwyer talk about the new rules and whether they will help dynamic companies list in the UK. Also we go long professional services and shorts in the office. 

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Last week the FT’s Moral Money writer Simon Mundy spoke with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla about 20 years of making big, long bets on renewable energy. Some have paid off, but most haven’t. Khosla is fine with that, and continues to look for big wins in the very long run on solutions such as fusion. Today on the show, Simon and Katie Martin discuss the future of green tech. Also, we short cars and electric bicycles. 

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Paramount and Skydance are merging. That’s a win for David Ellison, whose small studio will join a legendary one with a huge back catalogue and a nascent streaming platform. But is this merger of the old and new enough to compete in the new Hollywood? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan talk about the Paramount deal and the future of entertainment. Also, we take sides in the Euro soccer/football final this weekend.

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Recent elections have changed politics in Europe, delivering a centre-left Labour government in the UK and shifting seats to a left alliance in the French parliament. Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses this new landscape, and what it means for global markets and finance, with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, we short political journalists and opinion polls. 

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For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Ted Pick became chief executive of Morgan Stanley earlier this year. In a recent letter to shareholders, he touted “the integrated firm” as a model for the bank's future. But it’s not a new idea, and it’s one that has proven very hard for banks to actually do. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks the FT’s US banking editor, Josh Franklin, if it’s even a good idea. Also we short the US housing market and summer in New York City. 

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On Thursday, two candidates for US president will debate each other. They are both protectionists. This is a huge change in US economic policy, and one that may have massive consequences in the decades to come. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong talks with the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the past and future of industrial policy. Also we go long ageing and long babies.

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Golden Goose had a simple plan. Mass produce worn out sneakers, get stars to wear them, and sell them to the public. It was going great until the owner announced an IPO, and then pulled it. Today on the show, Katie Martin and James Fontenella-Khan discuss. Also, we go long German football and long sterling. 

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On Thursday, shareholders of Tesla voted to re-approve a deal to reward Elon Musk with more than $50 billion worth of shares in Tesla, thus making one of the world’s richest men even richer. Also we go long teams without stars and short climate change. 

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The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, and markets went whooshing upwards, as if they thought no-move was a clear signal about the next move. For a bit anyway. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator, to talk about the Fed and the crucial next few months before the US election in November. Also we short transatlantic rate arbitrage, exams and Nigel Farage.

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Researchers at the University of Chicago took a fairly standard large language model of AI and fed it a bunch of balance sheets and income statements and asked it to make predictions about earnings. In backtests, AI beat human calls by a small margin, and outperformed the market generally. Have fund managers been dealt yet another kill shot? Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong discuss, and go long shareholder commitments, and the musical genius of Yuja Wang.

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Nvidia continues its rocket-like rise: Investors have piled in, as have day traders who play the stock with options. This is causing banks and market makers to load up on shares in order to cover trades. It's a feedback loop traders call the gamma squeeze, and some are concerned it’s distorting markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks about Nvidia and the gamma squeeze with correspondent George Steer. Also we go long the ECB and short proposals for a Texas stock exchange. 

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It’s a big year for democracy. Voters in Mexico and India just went to the polls. Elections in the UK and US are still to come. On today’s show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk through how markets are responding to the elections in Mexico and India. And they analyse how markets might react to the UK and US elections. Also, we go short slugs and stock-based compensation.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

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At a recent meeting of the G20, Brazil invited economist Gabriel Zucman to address the most powerful nations in the world, and argue for a global tax on the super-rich. Today on the show, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu joins Robert Armstrong to discuss whether a worldwide tax on the very richest could even happen, and how it might work. Also, we short the commercial real estate crisis and go long liberal democracy. 

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Red Lobster used to be a respectable place to eat too much seafood. Now it’s bankrupt. Today on the show, host Rob Armstrong and the FT's Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap put on their bibs and pick apart the exoskeleton of a fast-casual icon. They talk about pasta water, real estate, and whether the real killer was the all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. Also we go long Chili’s, and deliver the results of an informal art poll. 

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Commercial property values in the UK and the US have been slow to adjust to the sharp increase in interest rates. Are sellers refusing to accept reality? Or has the property economy simply put itself on hold? Joshua Oliver covers real estate (and crypto) for the FT, and he walks us through it all. And talks about crypto. 

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You can email Katie Martin at [email protected].

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The price of cocoa has exploded. Over the past year, it’s up about 300 percent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and commodities reporter Susannah Savage try to figure out what’s behind the run-up in cocoa, olive oil and other staples. Also we go long gardening and short AI copying our voices. 

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Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and one of the most unusual. Its founder, Ray Dalio, has retired and moved on to other things, such as deep sea submarines. Can the new chief executive keep the group’s legendary returns going? Today on the show, reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins Rob Armstrong to discuss. Also we go long Walmart and short the troubled merger of Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck. 

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‘Roaring Kitty’, aka Keith Gill, aka the GameStop memelord, leaned in again this week, sparking a massive rally in the retailer and its sidekick, AMC. FT correspondents Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take stock of the mayhem and ask if it's a sign that the animal spirits are back. Also we short gruelling exams and go long utilities.  

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It's high noon for Paramount Studios, one of the most legendary names in Hollywood. In one corner, Wall Street and private equity. In the other corner, talented producer David Ellison, head of Skydance. OK, to be fair, he’s partnering with private equity, too. Today on the show, we break down the boss battle for Paramount with deals editor James Fontanella-Khan. Also we talk about sports.

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The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway this past weekend was a celebration of Warren Buffett’s unparalleled record and his legendary charm. Today on the show, FT correspondents Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong talk about recent investments in energy stocks, Apple and the ultimate question: succession. Also, we invent a new festival – TrackerFest – and short climate credit shenanigans. 

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Listeners, a small correction: A Shell-operated plant in Canada was granted millions of carbon credits for CO₂ removal that never took place, for use by some of Canada’s largest oil sands companies, but Shell has clarified that Shell itself did not sell any of these particular credits.

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The Federal Reserve this week chose to hold interest rates unchanged. But inflation still continues to outpace its 2 per cent target. Today on the show, capital markets correspondent Kate Duguid joins us to ask if the US central bank is making the wrong decisions, and what options they have. Also, we short Starbucks and dissect Ray Dalio's bet on civil war. 

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The American economy is strong — and the dollar is extremely expensive. Today on the show, we talk about how the strong dollar affects the rest of the world, pressuring importers, benefitting manufacturers, and causing capital to flow into the United States. Also we go long McDonald’s and long the British pub. 

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The FT’s Rob Armstrong sits down with Tim Harford, host of the podcast Cautionary Tales, to discuss Ponzi schemes, how they spiral out of control and what differentiates them from bubbles — and from Amazon. Plus, we go long pyramid schemes and short, as usual, crypto. 

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Check out Tim’s podcast, Cautionary Tales, and the full story on Sam Israel’s Ponzi scheme here.

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Diamond output by the mining giant De Beers is down 23% this quarter. Demand is slowing as a bounce from the coronavirus pandemic wears off and synthetic diamonds eat into market share. Today on the show, we try to understand the market for diamonds. Also, we go short Charles Dickens in the theatre and short UK weather. 

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You can email Katie Martin at [email protected]. 

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When the S&P 500 finally let Tesla join the index a few years ago, its stock soared. Similarly, the fortunes of countries have changed when their debt and equities have been included on one index or another. Today on the show, we talk to FT contributor and former fund manager Toby Nangle about who runs these indexes, and if they should be regulated. Also we go long the FTSE 100 and short El Salvador’s debt cycle.  

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While we’ve been watching Nvidia and other sparkly tech stocks, oil has been sneaking up to touch $90 a barrel. Today on the show, we talk about oil supplies, demand and the role of geopolitics. Also, we go short Ark’s Cathie Wood and Unhedged’s Ethan Wu. 

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Last year, Katie and Ethan made a bet about when the Fed would cut interest rates. Today, as the first quarter ends and markets flatten a bit, it’s time for one of them to eat crow. As for the other, he or she will gloat, but in a measured, slightly backpedalling way that won’t be too embarrassing in the future. Also, we go long Liz Truss’s PR manager and short cicadas. 

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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Shopify was an online darling during the pandemic but has faced challenges since then. However, it has still grown into an e-commerce site that handled more than $235 billion in transactions last year. Today on the show, FT reporter Anna Mutoh joins us to talk about Shopify, its failed attempt to start delivering packages, and where the company goes next. Also we go long Japan, and long the cherry blossoms of Brooklyn.

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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Private credit is booming, nearing $2tn in assets globally. Most of that debt is being traded out of the public eye, a fact highlighted in the latest Global Financial Stability report from the IMF. Is the IMF right to be worried? We discuss. We also short media coverage of Jamie Dimon and go long vowels. 

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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In the last months, the stock market has been a joyride, but not for two of the biggest names in tech: Tesla and Apple. Today on the show we look at how these two former high-flyers have come down in the last months, and even wonder what their role in the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks should be. Also we go long fundamental valuations, and long the Japanese family name Sato.  

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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Today on the show, we’re taking the long view, the very long view. Our guest is

Peter Oppenheimer, the head of macro research in Europe for Goldman Sachs, and the author of Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. We talk with him about how changes in technology and finance create cycles that shape markets, and investment returns, for decades. Also, we go long healthcare, short Tesla, and short private clubs. 

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Reddit has never had a profitable year. And yet its IPO this week saw its shares skyrocket on the first day of trading. Today on the show, we ask if Reddit is a withering social network riding irrational exuberance, or a prescient play on AI’s growing need for user-generated answers. Also, we go long momentum and short illustrations. 

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The major stock index in the UK, the FTSE 100, includes some of the biggest and most profitable multinational companies in the world. But in recent years the index has trailed the US markets and is now considerably cheaper. Today on the show, FT reporters Ethan Wu and Rob Armstrong ask if investors are overlooking a bargain. Also we go long cocoa and long the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. 

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FT correspondent Josh Oliver spent years covering crypto and the legal troubles of Sam Bankman-Fried. Last week, he published Hype Machine, a book about it all. Today he joins us to talk about SBF’s sentencing next week, FTX caretaker boss John Ray's new letter slamming SBF, and the many ways to fleece retail investors. Also we go long money laundering, and long pressing the recline button when flying coach, no matter who is sitting behind you. 

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You asked, we answered. Today on the show, we team up with our sibling podcast, Behind the Money, and answer questions from listeners. We’re tackling chips (both salty and silicon), market capitalizations, the future of India and more. And for even more, head over to Behind the Money, wherever you get your podcasts (Apple, Spotify, FT.com).  

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This week's US inflation numbers came in and they’ve remained higher for longer than many expected, or wanted. How does this change the Federal Reserve’s outlook and will the US stock market respond or continue its jaunty ascent? Today on the show Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong unpack the numbers. Also, we go long UK pasty purveyor Greggs and short Tesla. 

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Factor investing came out of academic work in the 1990s, and offered a way to pick stocks without relying on judgments about stories or sectors. It’s had good years and bad years, but has recently struggled to do more than match the market. Today on the show, Ethan Wu describes his visit to see AQR’s Cliff Asness, who has been using this style of investing for decades. Also we go long Big Tech AI spending, and short gold.

Link: Cliff Asness: AI is ‘still just statistics’

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Market watchers have wondered for years about what really goes on inside trading firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna and Virtu. A recent ruling in a lawsuit brought by a medical company may provide some answers. Today on the show, host Ethan Wu asks FT reporter Joe Miller about the case, brought by Northwest Biotherapeutics. Also, we short Trader Joes and Temu. 

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Rates are up and so are the markets, baffling the bears. Today on the show, FT correspondents Ethan Wu and Katie Martin look at five reasons the market might be rationally booming, including investor sentiment numbers, the AI revolution, changing expectations about interest rates and several promising economic fundamentals. Also, we short the UK budget and go long our own show. 

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ESG investing has been a dominant topic in finance for the past few years. But ESG seems to be taking a back seat. Today on the show, we talk about the future of mindful investing with Simon Mundy, who writes the Moral Money newsletter for the FT. Also, we go long legacy media and Sam Bankman-Fried’s chances for a short sentence. 

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In the last few weeks, markets have hit highs in the US, Europe, and Japan. Today on the show, we try to understand what has powered the results. We talk about chip company Nvidia, but also renewed optimism in Japan and the arrival of a new acronym describing the leaders in Europe: ‘Granolas’. Also we go long Berkshire Hathaway, and short gilets, or as Americans call them, “vests”.

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WeWork, the co-working company founded by Adam Neumann, collapsed in bankruptcy last year. And since then, the commercial real estate market has only gotten worse. Which makes this a perfect time for value investors to swoop in. Today on the show, we try to figure out if WeWork will live to co-work another day. Also, we talk about Nvidia, because everybody else is talking about Nvidia. 

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Of course we all know that passive investing delivers superior returns. But what if everyone is investing passively? Is there a case for active investing then? Recent research has shown that the explosion in index funds has made equities slower to respond to news. And also, it’s fun to be contrarian. So today on the show we explore cracks in the case against active investing. Also we go long RuneScape and cycling. 

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We live in the age of supercompanies: massive, dominant players that seem to get better as they grow — for customers and investors. And they also make us uncomfortable about our rights and freedoms. Think Walmart, Apple, Meta and so many others. But how should investors view these new giants, and will the returns last forever? Also we short the world-ex-US trade and go long the gerontocracy. 

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Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta just announced its first-ever dividend, which is something that rapidly growing tech companies rarely do. Dividends have been shunned in favour of corporate buybacks for decades. Is this a sign of change in the relationship between shareholders and corporations? Today on the show, we discuss the return of the dividend. Also we short internet tests, and go long frazzled-Englishwoman aesthetic.

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Each year the FT hosts a stockpicking contest. Today on the show, we go over our picks for 2023, which were brilliantly bad. We guessed wrong on housing, on streaming, and even on crypto. Of course, if listeners had bet against us, they would have done quite well. So naturally we’ve got five more stocks for 2024! Also, we go long Disney and short social media.

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Demand for riskier corporate bonds is intense. The spread between higher yielding (riskier) bonds and safer Treasuries is narrowing, and nearing long-term lows. Today on the show, we try to understand the hot market for these bonds, and ask what it might tell us about the rest of the year. Also, we go long Delaware and short the reinvention of WeWork.

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New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and what the bank’s troubles tell us about the commercial real estate market, regional banks and the broader economy. Also, we are both long and short workers returning to the office.

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While markets around the world took off last year, China continued to stumble. Will 2024 be any different? Today on the show, Ethan Wu and Katie Martin try to understand why the country is lagging, and if its leadership can do anything about it. Also, we go short snowball derivatives, and long God’s plan for crypto.  

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New rules about how board members are elected could change how corporate America is governed. In March, the Starbucks shareholder meeting may be a first test for new powers long sought by unions and other activists. Today on the show, FT reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to discuss a sea change in boardroom behaviour. Also we go long M&A and short the Oscars. 

Link: How unions are fighting a boardroom battle at Starbucks

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While the S&P 500 just hit a new high, the FTSE 100 is down about 3 per cent for the year. Today on the show, we talk about the two markets. First, we ask if antitrust cases might slow the tech companies powering the S&P 500, and second, we try to understand why the solid multinationals that make up the FTSE 100 can’t find any love. Also, we evaluate the mullet as a metaphor for a balanced portfolio. Our position: we are long and short. 

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There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory. 

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As interest rates jumped, cash ruled for a lot of investors. The payment for doing absolutely nothing – in the form of money market funds and other interest-bearing instruments – was the highest in decades. But that may be changing as equity markets outperform and the soft landing feels more like a reality. Today on the show, we re-evaluate sitting on the sidelines. Also we go long hairstyles in Taiwan and short the Big Tech stocks. 

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Introducing Untold, a new podcast from the special investigations team at the Financial Times. In its first series, The Retreat, host Madison Marriage examines the world of the Goenka network, which promotes a type of intensive meditation known as Vipassana. Thousands of people go on Goenka retreats every year. People rave about them. But some people go to these meditation retreats, and they suffer. They might feel a deep sense of terror, or a break with reality. And on the other side, they’re not themselves anymore. Untold: The Retreat launches Jan. 24.

Subscribe and listen on: Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Today on the show, we dig into the latest inflation numbers, examining the results for shelter, goods and energy, and think about what it all means for the 10-year Treasury yield. Also, we go long darts and short Tinder’s $499 monthly Select membership. 

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In July, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore went head-to-head in a stock-picking competition, drafting their favourite stocks from the Magnificent Seven, the seven tech stocks dominating the markets. Today on the show, we announce the winner of our contest, and try to think about what’s in store for next year. Also we go long the rest of the S&P 500 and short AI chatbots. 

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After a roaring December, the markets cooled a bit in the first days of 2024. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong think big thoughts about long yields in treasuries, the historical correlation of equities and debt, and the Big Tech stocks as an asset class. Also, we go long Alibaba and short commercial real estate. 

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Today on the show, we’re looking at the year ahead, with AI by our side. Our colleague Bryce Elder at the FT built an online quiz that pits AI against analysts in writing prose about the future. We take the quiz, and make our own predictions. Also we go long and short. 

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Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dole out the first-ever Unhedgies, awards for categories such as the best overall deal, scam, IPO, central banker – we do not choose Jay Powell, by the way — and a few others we came up with on the spot.  

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Last week’s Fed statements revealed that its Open Market Committee was thinking about the possibility of interest rate cuts at some point, and the markets responded with insane glee, unexpectedly sending the S&P 500 up to nearly an all-time high. Today on the show, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what exactly it all means, and what could derail the suddenly rosy future. Also, we go long fraud and short Christmas cards. 

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Jonathan Guthrie has been covering finance for 37 years. Today on the show, he talks with hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong about what he’s learnt, covering everything from market collapses to investing in banks. Also, we go long the return of the European otter. 

Links:

What I have learnt in 37 years of financial journalism

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Inflation has slowed in the US, the UK, and the EU. Will this mean interest rate cuts next year? Markets seem to think so, but comments from central bankers this week may temper that enthusiasm. Also, we go long the antitrust suit against Google, and long the UK’s campaign against greenwashing. 

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Bitcoin just hit $40,000, Coinbase is up 300 per cent this year, and French bank Société Générale is rolling out a stablecoin. All this frothy news comes after a record penalty levied on Binance by the SEC and the guilty verdict against Sam Bankman-Fried. Today on the show, Ethan Wu asks Katie Martin why, and Katie asks Ethan why. Also we go short Kwasi Kwarteng and long central bank speak. 

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The price of gold reached a record high last week. That’s surprising, because normally the price of gold goes down when interest rates go higher. Today on the show, we try to figure out what’s driving gold’s rise. Also, we go long Larry Fink and short the jobs report. 

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Market watchers cannot help but notice how the stock market and money supply often track one another. But does liquidity in the financial sector matter more to stock prices than the economy? In this show, we discuss the liquidity theory of markets and whether it holds water. Also, we go very long the late Charlie Munger, former number two at Berkshire Hathaway. 

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Markets have rallied almost 11 percent in November, in part on expectations that the Fed is done raising rates. Today on the show, we look at the Fed’s likely pause and how investors are responding. Also we go long Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon as a DJ. And we make a daring neutral call on the future. 

Links:

Can David Solomon DJ? An investigation

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The London Stock Exchange now makes most of its money selling data, and only a small percentage listing stocks. FT digital markets correspondent Nikou Asgari joins Katie Martin to ask what that tells us about global markets, data and the future of London as a finance hub. Also we go short the cryptocurrency BNB and long UK chancellors who don’t blow up the markets.

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As interest rates rise, funding for a lot of marginally profitable companies is drying up. These corporate “zombies” are wandering the markets, looking for the cheap credit they used to feast on. Today on the show, we take a look at companies on the edge of life and the private equity giants that own some of them. Also we short OpenAI and regrettably go long Covid. 

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It’s earning season, and the first big news might be from Walmart, whose stock dropped 7 per cent after it reported concerns about the health of the consumer. This is a counter narrative to the strong gross domestic product and inflation numbers we’ve been talking about. Today on the show, we dig into Walmart’s view and see what it might tell us about the future of the economy. Also we go out on a limb with two contrarian longs: big box retail and the news judgement of the American people. 

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Four months ago, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore placed their bets on two portfolios of three stocks each picked from the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have been dominating markets this year. Today on the show, we check in on their portfolios, and try to think about where they’re headed next. Also, we go long Chicago. 

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How many bears does it take to change a lightbulb? None, it will never happen. Join us today as we debrief reporter Jenn Hughes, recently back from a conference hosted by the biggest bear of them all, Jim Grant, longtime editor-in-chief of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. The cautious conferees had one thing on their minds: the explosion in government debt. One solution: yield curve control. Also, we go long cats, and short chewing tape. 

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Today on the show, host Katie Martin pits two teams against one another in a historic finance trivia showdown, complete with trash talk, ridiculously hard questions, and strongly-worded protests. In one corner, the cerebral duo behind the FT’s Alphaville newsletter, Alexandra Scaggs and Robin Wigglesworth. In the other, the brains behind the FT’s Unhedged newsletter, our own Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu. An epic clash like this will not be seen again in our lifetimes, or at least not until another slow news week. 

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Reporter Joshua Oliver joins us just hours after the closing arguments of the fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the FTX crypto exchange. We talk about why it’s hard to find a smoking gun in a white-collar criminal trial, why Bankman-Fried testified and what it was like for Oliver to hear his own name in the testimony. Also we go long and short a hedge fund trying to build a news organisation. 

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GDP numbers are strong. Wages are strong. Household debt is relatively low. So why is the stock market so blue? Since July 31, it is down 10 percent – formally a “correction” – and that includes the strong performance of the seven Big Tech stocks. What gives? Today on the show, we look at three factors putting the brakes on a boom. We also go long our own listeners, a few of whom Katie bumped into at a wedding in Ireland. 

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In the third quarter, the US economy, as measured by annualised GDP, grew 4.9%. In an environment of skyrocketing interest rates, that is an extraordinary number. And it’s being powered by an extraordinary force: the American consumer. Today on the show we try to understand why they have remained so resilient, and if there’s room for more growth. Also, we go long Morgan Stanley and short the avians of the Antarctic. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The CSI 300, which tracks the largest publicly traded companies in China, just fell to pre-pandemic lows, despite aggressive attempts by President Xi Jinping to prop up the market. The drags on equities include slowing growth, a crisis in the property market and notable geopolitical tensions. Today on the show, we try to figure out if this is the beginning of a long-term crisis or a historic buying opportunity. Also, we go long trades by Bill Gross and Bill Ackman and short getting hit by vans. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Today on the show, FT correspondent Josh Oliver joins us in the New York studio just minutes after leaving the courtroom. Oliver has been covering the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, since it started on October 2. We talk about the procession of former friends testifying against him, the trading firm Alameda, the seven balance sheets and the possibility of SBF taking the stand. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Japanese stock market is on a tear, up 20% this year. Some of that may be due to a weakening yen, and maybe a flight to safety, but it is likely largely the result of a serious effort to rethink how Japan does business. The latest push: a “name and shame” campaign to call out companies that aren’t optimising returns for shareholders. Also, we go short fudging expense reports and long techno bros who are long-winded. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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For years, low interest rates let private equity deliver huge returns to investors. But now rates are up, and private equity is struggling. Many PE firms are turning to financial engineering to boost results. Today on the show, we wonder how that’s going to turn out. Also we go long the dollar as reserve currency and short the Birkenstock IPO. 

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Conflict in the Middle East is dominating the news this week. Today on the show, we’re looking at three markets that traditionally respond to disruption: oil, the yen and gold. Also, we go long training for marathons and short the next 10 years for private equity. 

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We don’t really do politics, but with election season underway, candidates are arguing about the American economy. Incumbents say it’s terrific. Challengers say it’s awful. Which is it? Today on the show, we look at the economy from several viewpoints and try to figure out which is more accurate. Also we go long Q3 earnings and short coverage of Sam Bankman-Fried. 

Links: 

Today’s Unhedged newsletter

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The 10- and 30- year Treasury yields just hit their highest levels since 2007, sending prices down. And at the same time, equities moved in the same direction. That’s not supposed to happen. Today on the show, we try to figure out what is happening and why. Also we short our previous long on Three Arrows Capital and go long the Japanese yen. 

Links:

Please join the FT and Nikkei for a webinar on the revival of the Japanese stock market on Wednesday October 11 at 14:00 London time: japanesestockmarketrevival.live.ft.com

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The markets tried denying that the Federal Reserve really would keep rates “higher for longer”. But in the past week, equities and debt finally seemed to accept that high interest rates are here to stay. That means changes in the prices of assets, but it also has a lot of implications for everyone from tech start-ups to small countries with big loans. Today on the show, we try to think about the new world of high interest rates. Also, we go short small cap stocks and long London’s grocery stores. 

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The US dollar has been on a tear, just reaching a six-month high. It might be a sign investors and traders are getting used to the idea that US interest rates will be “higher for longer.” Today on the show, we look at the greenback’s continuing strength and try to understand how it will affect global markets. Also, we go long London and long Jamie Dimon’s interest rate calls. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Dumb Money, out this week, stars Seth Rogen, America Ferrera and several very tricky finance moves. We liked Seth and America, but we definitely have questions about the portrayal of clearing houses, order flow, and stock dilution. If you’ve watched Star Wars and wondered how the Millenium Falcon could carry enough fuel to travel at the speed of light, this episode is for you. Also we go long Jay Powell and long auto workers. 

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Hedge funds are piling into the basis trade — a bet on the difference between the price of Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures — and they are levering up, too. Today on the show, we ask: Are we watching genius at work? And if not, how much is this all going to cost? Also, we go long all the other central banks and short comedians from Sacramento. 

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Robyn Grew is the new CEO of the Man Group, which manages more than $150 billion over multiple hedge funds. On September 3, she joined Katie Martin, the FT’s Markets Editor, at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House in north London. Perched on high stools behind a kitchen counter meant for a cooking demonstration, Grew and Martin discussed how the end of the low-inflation era has forced a rethink for everyone from retail investors to managers of sophisticated hedge funds. 

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As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Grayscale Investments manages funds of digital assets – cryptocurrency – for investors. They just won a case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which could eventually let it, or another manager, offer an ETF that holds bitcoin. US Financial Editor Brooke Masters and podcast regular Rob Armstrong talk with Ethan about what a world of crypto for regular investors might look like. Also we go long the US Treasury, and short the administrative state. 

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Summer’s nearly over, autumn is approaching, and the jobs numbers came in just right. So what are we worried about? Besides the slowdown in China, there are also concerns about the sagging bond market and a drought affecting the Panama Canal. Also, we go long the education and medical sectors and short … fried cheese.

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The central bankers of the world are just back from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where they gathered to discuss the global economy. Two new papers dropped at the event, and together they say a lot about what worries policymakers: public debt and the Treasury markets. Also, we go long the SEC’s private fund regulations and short the neutral interest rate. 

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The press has been savaging Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. And only the Unhedged Podcast is brave enough to defend him. A little bit. Well, we’re not saying he’s the greatest ever, but there are a lot of interesting reasons it is getting harder to be a secretive financial group and consistently make billions. Also, we go even longer on Japan and short our ability to make predictions about Nvidia. 

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Zero-day options are now almost 50 percent of the options market. But what are they? And why would anyone take these bets? Today on the show, host Ethan Wu and Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the latest way to gamble on the markets and address concerns that it all might blow up. Also we go short the Republican debate and long the Bloomberg terminal. 

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In an alternate corner of the multiverse, Disney is a family-friendly company that reliably puts out iconic films and turns them into billions of dollars through licensing and theme park visits. In our universe, they are fighting a tough battle for streaming viewers, reeling from a messy public CEO swap, struggling to find a hit and trying to make things better by starting a gambling operation. Today on the show, Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to watch the fireworks. Also we go long British football and short our own wit. 

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Ortenca Aliaj (@OrtencaAI) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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China’s economy has been growing faster than almost any other for a generation, so a slowdown is unfamiliar territory. Today on the show we look at three indicators — the CPI, exports and property sales — and try to understand why growth in China is finally slowing, and what it means for the rest of the world. Also, we go short cable news and long Argentina as a perpetual lesson in economics. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Carl Icahn is one of the most successful investors of all time, but his bet against the US economy has cost him billions of dollars. Now Hindenburg Research, the short seller, has come after Icahn and his publicly-traded fund, Icahn Enterprises. Hindenburg claims Icahn’s generous dividends are unsustainable. Today on the show, we ask: Can Icahn rally? Also, we go short investment bankers, and long stowaways. 

Links:

- Icahn Enterprises halves dividend after short seller attack

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Bonds started as a tool of the state, but quickly came to determine its fortunes. Today on the show, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth joins us to talk about how bonds have overtaken banking as the engine of the economy, and why that might be good and why that might be dangerous. Also, we go short the soft landing and long Nintendo. 

Links:

How bonds ate the entire financial system

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After a decade, billions of dollars and almost five years on the public markets, Uber has at last turned a profit. In the previous quarter, it made $326 million dollars. Today on the show, we ask: What took it so long? And why is it so hard to make money matching riders with drivers? Also, we go long the 10-year US Treasury, and short cultural criticism. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass. 

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Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank. 

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Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation.  

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum. 

Links:

No, private credit markets aren’t really that big

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Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit. 

Links:

- Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ era

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

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Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk. 

Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters).

Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce.

Links:

- Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT.

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy?

Links:

- Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs.

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital.

Links:

Read the Unhedged newsletter on Japan

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected].

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Car insurance costs in the US have shot up by 23% in the past 18 months, dwarfing the overall rise in inflation. What exactly is happening? And what lessons can be learnt? We discuss how idiosyncratic factors like a new law in Florida and even Taylor Swift’s latest tour are showing up in US prices. Also, we go short US housing and long SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his quirky presentations.

Links:

What’s going on with US car insurance?

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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On paper, it’s a strong market. The S&P 500 is up more than 14 per cent this year. But for professional investors, it’s confusing. Most of the gains are driven by just seven stocks, all big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia. Take those seven out and the market is essentially flat, leaving traders wondering if they’re sitting out an AI bubble, or missing a real rally. Also, we go long gilts, which are yielding 5 per cent, and long …lettuce. 

Links:

Stock market scramble has left investors skittish despite rally

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Crypto is at a crossroads. As exchanges and currencies blow up, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to step in. But is crypto a security, like a stock? Or a tradable item of speculation, like a Beanie Baby? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu argue about the benefits and risks of regulating crypto. Also, we go short home prices, and long … the bone trade.

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The US economy remains confusing. Markets continue to predict a slowdown but unemployment remains low. Today on the show, we try to figure out what job numbers, manufacturing and credit can tell us about a possible recession and an end to rate rises. Also, we are long the bros at Three Arrows Capital (sort of), and the US stock market. 

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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