Podd: The Macro Trading Floor

Trump's Secret Agenda

8 november 2024 | 34 min

The Bond Market Is On Fire

25 oktober 2024 | 36 min

Financial Repression Is Here To Stay

18 oktober 2024 | 38 min

What If The Fed Made a Mistake?

11 oktober 2024 | 39 min

Macro Risks On The Horizon

4 oktober 2024 | 35 min

Unpacking The Chinese Stimulus Bazooka

27 september 2024 | 37 min

How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle

20 september 2024 | 36 min

The World is Different Now

13 september 2024 | 41 min

Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

6 september 2024 | 37 min

How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options

23 augusti 2024 | 40 min

A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades

10 augusti 2024 | 36 min

Macro Mayhem!

2 augusti 2024 | 40 min

Explaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-Off

26 juli 2024 | 37 min

Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality

19 juli 2024 | 39 min

It's Macro ShowTime!

12 juli 2024 | 39 min

Option Markets Are Eating The World

21 juni 2024 | 38 min

What Powell Really Meant

14 juni 2024 | 40 min

Risk Management Principles

7 juni 2024 | 38 min

Don't Make This Mistake

31 maj 2024 | 29 min

How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties

24 maj 2024 | 37 min

How To Trade Macro Now?

17 maj 2024 | 36 min

Early Signs of Weakness

10 maj 2024 | 38 min

A New Fed Put?

3 maj 2024 | 37 min

A Contrarian Macro Thesis

26 april 2024 | 38 min

What if Hikes are Stimulative?!

19 april 2024 | 37 min

Yes, But What Will Break Markets?

12 april 2024 | 38 min

The Next Big Trade?

5 april 2024 | 36 min

Macro Traders Reflections

29 mars 2024 | 37 min

Dario Perkins: These Central Banks Better Pivot Fast

22 mars 2024 | 37 min

Volatility is Coming

15 mars 2024 | 36 min

Animal Spirits Running Loose

8 mars 2024 | 39 min

Macro Opportunities Around The World

29 februari 2024 | 37 min

It's Back!

25 februari 2024 | 1 min

This Is It

25 juni 2023 | 31 min

The ECB Hikes As The Fed Pauses - Is This 2008 Again?

18 juni 2023 | 38 min

It's All About Liquidity & Inflation Now

4 juni 2023 | 44 min

The AI 5 versus the S&P 495

28 maj 2023 | 36 min

A Macro Trader Playbook with Jim Leitner

21 maj 2023 | 39 min

The Debt Ceiling Drama is Approaching

14 maj 2023 | 38 min

The Credit Crunch is Here

7 maj 2023 | 34 min

First Republic Under Stress, Now What?

30 april 2023 | 43 min

What's Happening In Global Macro?

23 april 2023 | 39 min

Here Is Why Markets Are Rallying

16 april 2023 | 38 min

The Hiking Cycle Is Over

9 april 2023 | 34 min

The End of The US Dollar?

2 april 2023 | 33 min

Banks: The Big Picture

26 mars 2023 | 49 min

From Liquidity To A Credit Crisis

19 mars 2023 | 44 min

Panic In The Banking System

12 mars 2023 | 43 min

It's Lonely On Disinflation Island

5 mars 2023 | 35 min

There's No Bull Case For Risk Assets

26 februari 2023 | 38 min

Why Is Powell Ignoring "Animal Spirits"

19 februari 2023 | 39 min

Recession, Soft Landing or Higher For Longer? | Kevin Flanagan

12 februari 2023 | 57 min

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome Kevin Flanagan Head of Fixed Income Strategy at WisdomTree for a discussion on everything happening in global bond markets. Since 2022, the consensus has flip flopped from recession, to soft landing as markets have rallied, the labor market has remained strong, credit has been fairly contained and signs of financial stress dwindle. Kevin, Alfonso and Andreas walk through the scenarios in 2023 of recession, soft landing or higher for longer? Finally, Kevin shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Kevin: https://twitter.com/KevinFlanaganWT Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_mac..., you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- Referenced In The Show: Fed official says he looks at the price of Stouffer's frozen lasagna to gauge inflation: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-official-price-of-stouffers-frozen-lasagna-to-gauge-inflaiton-2023-2?op=1 Big flows going on in options: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1623736233477144577 German GDP: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/01/PE23_037_811.html -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) A New Governor For The BoJ? (03:02) Recession, Soft Landing or Higher For Longer? (12:40) Feature Interview With Kevin Flanagan (14:23) Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (17:11) What Is The Yield Curve Signalling? (23:25) Curve Ad (24:35) The Path Ahead For Inflation In 2023 (27:37) The Yield Curve Is Signalling Recession... But When? (34:07) Wisdom Tree Ad (34:40) Kevin's Actionable Trade Idea (38:51) The U.S Debt Ceiling (43:05) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (47:39) Retail Is Back Partying Like It's 2021 (48:56) Actionable Trade Ideas -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Animal Spirits Are Back For Markets

5 februari 2023 | 33 min

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas take a look into another busy week in central banking with the Fed, ECB & BoE all announcing further rate hikes on their tightening cycles. Markets have rallied through January with the S&P 500 returning roughly 8% so far in 2023. With the most speculative risk asset's rallying the most, it seems that "animal spirits" are back for investors. Alfonso & Andreas walk through the liquidity backdrop before sharing their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_mac..., you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- Referenced In The Show: FX weekly: Get ready for climate QE: https://corporate.nordea.com/article/49339/fx-weekly-get-ready-for-climate-qe -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Breaking Down Powell's Comments (07:14) It's All About Liquidity (10:30) “Curve Ad” (11:40) It's All About Liquidity (12:33) One Of Lagarde's Worst ECB Press Conferences (22:00) “Wisdom Tree Ad” (22:33) Actionable Trade Ideas -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Is The Recession Already Over?

29 januari 2023 | 33 min

Are Markets Really Priced For A Recession? | John Normand

22 januari 2023 | 56 min

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome John Normand Cross-Asset Strategist, JPM alum for a global macro tour of the world. John walks through the most anticipated recession in history by looking at the current market pricing in FX, rates and credit. Has the forecasted slowdown in 2023 really started to rear its head under the headlines in financial media? John then goes on to discuss the Chinese reopening and what implications the second largest economy coming back online will have for the rest of the global economy as inflation continues on it's current downtrend. Finally, John shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow John: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-normand-4b902b55/ Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_mac..., you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (05:55) The ECB Is Going Against The Tide (09:23) What Is The Trade? (12:15) Feature Interview With John Normand (18:41) Curve Ad (20:08) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (24:00) The Most Anticipated Recession In History (30:31) Structural Shifts In The Economy (34:29) Wisdom Tree Ad (35:03) Asset Allocation In 2023 (38:13) John's Actionable Trade Idea (40:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:28) Preparing For A Global Slowdown -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Macro Is Back With A Vengeance | Steve Drobny

15 januari 2023 | 48 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Steve Drobny Founder and CEO at Clocktower Group for an inside look into the hedge fund industry. With the past two years spurring the return of macro volatility, many macro hedge funds have arisen, posting high returns in the timeframe. Steve, with his extensive connections in the hedge fund industry, walks through the past two years of higher inflation and how this changed the investing landscape compared to the 12 years prior. He then goes on to discuss what the coming decade could look like. Have we entered a new regime, which could see the rise of more macro hedge funds as "macro is back with a vengeance?" To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Clocktower Group: https://www.linkedin.com/company/clocktower-group/ Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Blackstone’s BREIT Gets $4 Billion California Injection: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) The U.S Inflation Report (04:38) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (07:49) The ECB Is... Raising Rates?! (08:48) The China Reopening (10:33) Feature Interview With Steve Drobny (13:38) What Makes A Successful Macro Fund Manager? (21:57) “Curve Ad” (23:07) Macro Is Back With A Vengeance (29:14) Launching A Hedge Fund (33:54) “Wisdom Tree Ad” (34:27) The Growth Of Hedge Fund's In The Coming Decade (38:05) Post Interview (40:40) Trades For The China Reopening (45:19) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Chinese Reopening: Bullish Or Bearish Oil? | Nitesh Shah

8 januari 2023 | 57 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nitesh Shah Head of Commodity and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree for a discussion on the China reopening, how it will effect commodity markets and it's impact on broader markets. Energy was the strongest performing sector in 2022, but should we expect the same in 2023? Nitesh walks through the commodity supercycle thesis, as it conflicts with a business cycle downturn in 2023 and what this could mean for commodities, specifically oil, heading into 2023 and beyond. Finally, Nitesh shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Nitesh: https://twitter.com/NiteshShahWT Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 13–14, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20221214.pdf OPEC slashes oil demand outlook on global economic uncertainty after earlier predictions of supply shortfalls: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-opec-cuts-2023-demand-over-global-uncertainty-flows-2022-12?op=1 Inflation Will Fall off A Cliff In 2023 | Warren Pies: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/inflation-will-fall-off-a-cliff-in-2023-warren-pies/id1618502265?i=1000591241444 WisdomTree Insights: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction & "WisdomTree Ad" (01:19) Breaking Down The Fed Minutes (07:12) Europe Is Showing Signs of Disinflation (10:41) The China Reopening (13:32) Feature Interview: Nitesh Shah (17:07) How A Chinese Reopening Will Impact Commodities (20:09) The Divergence Between Gold & Oil (23:33) Oil Supply & Demand In A 2023 Recession (26:46) “Curve Ad” (27:56) The Commodity Supercycle (32:39) How Russia & Ukraine Is Effecting Global Commodity Markets (35:05) Nitesh's Actionable Trade Idea (41:16) Closing Thoughts (42:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Alfonso Peccatiello & Andreas Steno Larsen

1 januari 2023 | 47 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the liquidity cycle is telling us and finally, Andreas and Alfonso share their actionable trade ideas. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®️, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) 2022: A Year In Review (04:35) The Best Trades In 2022 On The Macro Trading Floor (10:22) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (17:59) The U.S & European Business Cycle (20:22) “Curve Ad” (21:32) The U.S & European Business Cycle (28:52) Equity Market's In 2023 (35:07) The Liquidity Cycle In 2023 (39:44) Higher, Or Lower? (43:15) The Best Trade For The New Year -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Inflation Will Fall off A Cliff In 2023 | Warren Pies

25 december 2022 | 58 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market (11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap (14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies (15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle? (17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change (19:56) Is This Time Different? (23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve (27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer (32:25) “Curve Ad” (33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative (37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea (44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Felix Zulauf: The Fed Is Making A Policy Error

19 december 2022 | 65 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting for a discussion on the changing macro landscape and the policy error the Fed is making. Taking us on a global macro tour of the world, Felix argues that the past few decades of globalization could now be in reverse, and most investors are not well positioned for that transition. We then go on to discuss the trends in inflation, wether we will enter a recession in 2023 and finally Felix's actionable trade idea. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: A Divided Bank of England Raises Rates to 3.5%: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-12-15/a-divided-bank-of-england-raises-rates-to-3-5 Zulauf Consulting: https://www.felixzulauf.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting (06:27) The Fed & The ECB Are Looking In The Rear View Mirror (08:06) All Eyes On The Bank of England (11:56) Feature Interview With Felix Zulauf (15:07) A Global Macro Outlook (30:30) Do You Expect A 2023 Recession? (38:07) “Curve Ad” (39:16) Felix's Actionable Trade Idea (43:26) What Could Go Wrong With Your Thesis? (51:03) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (55:29) Powell Will Stop Raising Rates When You Stop Trading Monkey JPEGs (58:34) The U.S Debt Ceiling Looms (1:01:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jurrien Timmer: The Trade For A 2023 Recession

11 december 2022 | 56 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jurrien: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The Bond Market Is Pricing A 2023 Recession (06:11) Does Inflation Come Down With A Recession? History Says Yes (10:38) Feature Interview With Jurrien Timmer (18:03) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (24:22) “Curve Ad” (25:31) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (30:12) Are We Close To A Peak In Fed Funds? (35:25) Jurrien's Actionable Trade Idea (38:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (41:17) When Will The Fed End QT? (51:54) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How To Trade The Chinese Turbulence | Alex Campbell

4 december 2022 | 57 min

We apologise for any minor audio issues you may experience on today's episode. -- On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Alex Campbell, the Founder of Rose AI, to the show for a discussion on the current situation in China. As inflation, de-globalization, and tight commodity markets continue to impact markets, Alex provides insights on the best ways to protect yourself in today's environment. Drawing on his extensive experience as the Head of Commodities at Bridgewater Associates, Alex delves into the structural underinvestment in the sector, how geopolitics have shaped the markets in 2022, and the likely path ahead in 2023. Tune in to hear Alex's actionable trade idea and learn more about how to navigate today's challenging economic landscape. -- Follow Alex: https://twitter.com/abcampbell Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Real Estate Watch - The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/real-estate-watch-the-equity-market -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Breaking Down Jerome Powell's Speech (04:20) Blackstone Limits Withdrawals In Major Property Fund (06:52) The Labor Market (11:23) Feature Interview With Alex Campbell (18:02) What Is Happening In China? (23:15) Inflation, De-Globilization & Commodities (28:31) “Curve Ad” (29:41) The Fed Is Tightening, But The PBOC Is Loosening... (32:22) Is Volatility Too Cheap? (34:28) Asset Allocation During An Inflationary Cycle (37:18) Alex's Actionable Trade Idea (42:24) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Thomas Thornton: This Bear Market Isn't Over Yet

27 november 2022 | 53 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry joins the show to discuss the equity bear market in 2022. Tommy walks through what has happened in 2022, and what to expect in 2023 as investors face uncertainty if the recent rally is a bear market rally, or a bottom. Tommy goes on to discuss the energy trade and where the best risk/reward is in markets right now. Finally, Tommy shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Tommy: https://twitter.com/TommyThornton Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Recent Moves In FX (07:24) The Yield Curve Doesn't Stop Inverting (12:10) Feature Interview: Thomas Thornton (15:57) How Tommy Manoeuvred Markets in 2022 (17:46) The Recent Rally In Markets: Market Bottom, or Bear Market Rally? (22:12) “Curve Ad” (23:27) Tommy's Market Outlook Into 2023 (34:45) The Energy Trade (37:07) Tommy's Actionable Trade Idea (41:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jacob Shapiro: From Globalization To A Multipolar World

20 november 2022 | 60 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitics at Cognitive Investments for a discussion on the global trend to a multipolar world. In 2022, geopolitics has been one of the leading factors in markets, so we invited an expert in geopolitics to help us navigate this environment. Expecting a shift away from globalization and a more multipolar world over the next decade, this trend has many implications for economies around the world. Jacob walks through the U.S/China relations, Europe's energy crisis and discusses which countries are best positioned in this environment, before finally sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jacob: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through http://tmtf.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (04:46) Bear Market Rally, Or Market Bottom? (07:38) What Is Happening In Crypto? (12:23) Feature Interview: Jacob Shapiro (15:25) U.S & China Relations After The G20 Meeting (18:23) China's Zero Covid Policy (23:05) De-Globalization (32:02) “Curve Ad” (33:17) Europe's Energy Crisis (38:31) Which Countries Are Well Positioned In This Environment (42:39) Jacob's Actionable Trade Idea (46:38) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (49:22) The Energy Crisis In Europe (51:53) A Trade In The Bond Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Real Stress Is Not In The US, But Elsewhere | Brent Donnelly

13 november 2022 | 56 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Brent Donnelly President of Spectra Markets for a discussion on the economic weakness around the world. With market participants focusing on the U.S as Powell continues to fight inflation, Brent reminds us that the real stress is not in the U.S, but elsewhere. Looking to Canada, Brent walks through the fragility he sees in the Canadian economy, and discusses vulnerability in the housing market as mortgages reprice with higher interest rates. Finally, Brent shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor. And if you are an institutional investor already, the Pro tier will help sharpen your macro game through dedicated professional products and tools. As a listener of The Macro Trading Floor, you can use the code ''TMTF'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/ -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:50) Top Stories of The Week (11:36) Feature Interview With Brent Donnelly (16:24) Drawing Comparisons Between 2022 & 2001 (21:19) Brent's Outlook On Inflation (29:16) The Housing Market (33:45) Brent's Actionable Trade Idea (42:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:38) Launching The Macro Compass Platform -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Debt, Demographics & Deflation Ahead | Raoul Pal

6 november 2022 | 60 min

Natural Gas Prices Plunge, But For How Long?

30 oktober 2022 | 43 min

Is There A Bull Case For Markets? | Michael Gayed

23 oktober 2022 | 56 min

Bonds Will Perform Better Than Stocks, Here’s Why | Mikael Sarwe

16 oktober 2022 | 50 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volatility to remain high, but that nonetheless he expects longer-duration bonds to significantly outperform equities over the coming six to nine months. To hear Mikael’s actionable trade idea, you’ll have to tune in! This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Mikael: https://twitter.com/mikaelsarwe Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Intro (00:44) U.S. Inflation Report (09:05) Is The Bond Market Broken? (13:39) Mikael Sarwe's Recession Thesis (19:04) When Will Central Banks Stop Hiking Interest Rates? (23:33) U.K. Gilts and the Bank of England (BOE) (26:39) Outlook on Bonds (33:22) The Dollar (37:34) The Trade (39:40) Analysis Of The Trade (49:55) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Porter: Here Is How The Next 6 Months Will Look

9 oktober 2022 | 56 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso welcomes John Porter Principal of Mercator Financial Advisors to the show. With a background spanning from CIO at the World Bank, Managing Director at Barclays, working in several hedge funds and so much more, John Porter was the perfect guest to invite to the show. John shares his thoughts on how he is viewing markets in 2022, and what the next six months could have in store. John goes on to discuss how he is viewing the path for inflation, the bond market and finally shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://bit.ly/3SZKWSx Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SM4R7h -- (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Q4 Kicks Off With A Rally In Risk Asset's (06:52) Fed Pivot? Think Again... (09:20) Feature Interview With John Porter (48:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Good, The Bad & The Safe Haven

2 oktober 2022 | 49 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in FX markets. Just how are indicators such as inflation, energy & interest rates effecting currencies around the world? Finally, Andreas and Alfonso highlight the good, bad & safe haven currencies with an actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bank of England announces gilt market operation https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e Nord Stream gas leak continues to bubble in the Baltic Sea as EU diplomat suspects sabotage https://news.sky.com/video/nord-stream-gas-leak-continues-to-bubble-in-the-baltic-sea-as-eu-diplomat-suspects-sabotage-12706871 -- (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Bank of England Announces Gilt Market Operation (05:09) Risks In European Bond Markets (09:12) What Does This Mean For Markets? (12:15) Feature Interview With Andreas (13:22) The Bull Case For Risk Assets (19:31) What Options Do Central Banks Have? (24:38) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (29:17) Feature Interview With Alfonso (31:44) Geopolitical Risk In The Baltic Sea (37:01) The Strongest & Weakest Global Currencies (40:56) Alfonso’s Actionable Trade Ideas (43:13) Post Interview Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Investors Are "Totally Unprepared", And This Is Why | Bob Elliott

25 september 2022 | 54 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges such as gold perform in inflationary periods? Finally, Bob shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The FOMC Meeting (07:16) An Update On The European Energy Crisis (11:56) Feature Interview With Bob Elliot (13:48) Central Banks Reaction To Inflation (16:05) Powell Doesn't Wan't To Repeat The Mistake of The 1970's (19:22) Asset Allocation During Inflationary Periods (22:16) Gold (25:35) Commodities In This Environment (28:10) The Role of The 60/40 Portfolio (34:32) Bob's Actionable Trade Idea (43:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Oil Bull Market Is NOT Over | Andrew Simon

18 september 2022 | 62 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, particularly oil & natural gas, Andrew makes the case for why politicians around the world are actually contributing to the higher prices. Finally, Andrew shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Andrew: https://twitter.com/Asimoan28 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:19) Inflation Surprised To The Upside (06:36) Energy's Effect On Inflation (11:06) Feature Interview With Andrew Simon (12:27) What Is Happening In Energy? (19:32) Why Andrew Is Bullish On Oil (28:28) Political Risk of Being Long Energy (30:32 )The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (36:51) Andrew's Actionable Trade Idea (44:09) The Oil Price vs 2008 (48:16) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Don't Bet Against The Swiss National Bank | Vincent Deluard

11 september 2022 | 55 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vincent shares the bull case for a certain sector of the European economy by outlining his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/truss-earmarks-130-billion-to-keep-uk-energy-bills-below-2-000 Asset Purchase Facility: Gilt Sales – Market Notice 1 September 2022: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/market-notices/2022/september/apf-gilt-sales-market-notice-1-september-2022 Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Europe's Reaction to the Energy Crisis (05:17) European Banks Excess Liquidity (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (09:02) The BoE Secretly Announces Yield Curve Control (11:32) Feature Interview: Vincent Deluard (12:46) The Inflation Regime Shift (15:32) The Labor Market (21:00) Deglobalization Marks A Shift In The Labor Market (31:07) Long Duration in US Markets (35:01) The US Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:09) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea (43:29) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:50) A "Techtonic" Shifts in Global Markets (51:41) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ben Melkman: Expecting A U.S Dollar Decline

4 september 2022 | 58 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Natural Gas In Europe (03:40) Inflation In Europe (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman (11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation (21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole (28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation? (31:09) The U.S Dollar (37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea (47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This Is What The Fed Will Do | David Woo

28 augusti 2022 | 56 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, David shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- “This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs and gain access to a wide range of government and corporate bonds. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/davidwoounbound Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bridgewater Doubles Short Wagers in Europe to $10.5 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/bridgewater-doubles-bet-against-european-stocks-to-10-5-billion Biden Unveils Plan to Free Students from ‘Unsustainable Debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/biden-set-to-freeze-student-loan-repayments-for-four-more-months Kansas City Fed's George on rate hikes: 'We have more work to do' https://uk.news.yahoo.com/kansas-city-feds-george-rate-133641402.html -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Is Europe's Energy Crisis As Bad As Reported? (01:00) Top Stories Of The Week (07:43) Biden Unveils Plan to Cancel Student Debt (12:35) Feature Interview With David Woo (17:20) Fed Policy vs Economic Growth (21:55) The Path Ahead For Midterms (26:55) Can The Fed Slay The Inflation Dragon? (29:42) Quantitative Tightening (35:05) David's Actionable Trade Idea (44:26) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Disinflationary Trend Is Over | Whitney Baker

21 augusti 2022 | 55 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Whitney Baker CEO of Totem Macro to the show. With a background at some of the largest funds in the world, including Bridgewater, Whitney provides an expert view into the secular shift happening in markets today. Arguing that liquidity & globalization were two of the most important trends of the past 20 years, what will a secular reversal in both mean for markets going forward? To find out & hear Whitneys actionable trade idea, you'll just have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Follow Whitney: https://twitter.com/TotemMacro Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 26-27, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220817a.htm Recognizing China: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1971-10-01/recognizing-china The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era: https://english.news.cn/20220810/df9d3b8702154b34bbf1d451b99bf64a/c.html What China's Taiwan white paper is saying: https://asiatimes.com/2022/08/what-chinas-taiwan-white-paper-is-saying/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) FOMC Minutes (06:09) Inflation In Europe & The U.K (10:00) Feature Interview With Whitney Baker (14:38) A Reverse In Liquidity & Globalization (21:39) Equity & Energy Markets (28:12) Whitney's Actionable Trade Idea (41:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (44:50) The End Of Globalization? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Are You Paying Attention to Emerging Markets? | Nick Stadtmiller

14 augusti 2022 | 57 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nick Stadtmiller Director of Emerging Markets Strategy at Medley Advisors. With an expertise in emerging markets, Nick joins the show for a discussion on the macro forces driving EM's. From global inflation rates to the rising U.S Dollar's effect on EM currencies, Nick provides a region by region walkthrough of all the strongest and weakest emerging market's you can't afford to not pay attention too. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at: https://www.home.saxo/products/forex?cmpid=affi_cm_28261487_342027945_0 -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickStadtmiller Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:01) Breaking Down The CPI Report (08:46) The Liquidty Cycle (10:15) DAS NY (12:51) Feature Interview with Nick Stadtmiller (14:35) Market Reaction To Lower Inflation (18:05) The U.S Dollar (22:18) What Is Happening In Emerging Markets? (28:40) China (38:00) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (43:25) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Fed Will Break Inflation's Back, No Matter What | Teddy Vallee

7 augusti 2022 | 54 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Teddy Vallee, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Pervalle Global. After positioning to be short everything in the first half of 2022, Teddy now sees an environment where inflation will begin to roll over. With typical growth indicators slowing down such as commodities, Teddy sees an attractive risk/reward in the bond market. Teddy then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io -- Referenced In The Show: BOE Raises Rates by Most Since 1995, Warns of Long Recession: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/boe-raises-rates-by-most-since-1995-warns-of-long-recession Sweeping Mortgage Boycott Changes the Face of Dissent in China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-03/china-real-estate-market-crisis-protests-may-spur-multi-billion-dollar-rescue -- Follow Teddy: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Top Stories Of The Week (10:13) DAS (11:33) Feature Interview with Teddy Vallee (16:12) Why Is Inflation Heading Lower? (21:20) Will Powell Pivot? (23:34) Market reaction To Powell's Comments (28:42) The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening (31:02) Outlook For The U.S Dollar (34:11) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (36:49) Teddy's Actionable Trade Idea (40:51) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Shorting The Nasdaq With Butterfly Spreads | Dean Curnutt

31 juli 2022 | 64 min

Diego Parrilla: China Is Running Out Of Options

24 juli 2022 | 60 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome best selling author and investment manager at Quadriga Asset Management Diego Parrilla to the show for a discussion on China. Diego makes the point that China's growth over the past 20 years is no longer sustainable as they battle high debt levels, demographic collapse & now social upheaval as citizens boycott mortgage payments. Diego goes on to discuss recent FX moves in USD, CNY & HKD before centering his actionable trade idea around a single currency pair, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- DAS: Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Diego: https://twitter.com/ParrillaDiego Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: China's Mortgage Boycotts Are a Problem for Xi: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-07-20/china-s-mortgage-boycotts-are-a-problem-for-xi?sref=1STrqapn -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) The ECB Meeting (08:02) DAS New York Conference (11:32) Feature Interview With Diego Parrilla (13:35) The Chinese Economy (16:33) China's Mortgage Boycotts (22:53) Currency Wars (26:02) Chinese Demographics (31:01) Is The Hong Kong Dollar Peg At Risk? (34:40) Diego's Actionable Trade Idea (49:50) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Marko Papic: Game Over For The Oil Bulls

17 juli 2022 | 52 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Marko Papic Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group. With such a massive bull run in energy, particularly Oil since the March 2020 lows, is the bull run sustainable? With a geopolitical premium priced into energy markets since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are oil and gas markets set to take another leg higher, or retrace 2021 & 2022 gains like the past couple of months? Marko walks through all of the factors at play and also shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Marko: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Nord Stream nightmare: Has Putin stopped Europe's gas for good? https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/ Heathrow tells airlines to stop selling tickets for flights this summer https://www.ft.com/content/9e76ca20-406f-46a8-8cec-d7627ea38f91 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:41) Top Stories Of The Week (11:17) Feature Interview With Marko Papic (16:35) Has Putin Stopped Europe's Gas For Good? (21:47) Can Europe Handle The Energy Shortage? (25:40) Chinese Oil Demand (33:14) What Could Go Wrong With Marko's Trade Idea? (35:11) Biden Heads To Saudi Arabia (37:16) Final Thoughts (40:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

A Trade For The U.S Dollar's Reversal | Julian Brigden

10 juli 2022 | 62 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners. Making the statement that "macro is back with a vengeance", Julian joins the show for a wide ranging discussion on inflation, misconceptions in the yield curve inversion, the factors driving an equity bear market and the U.S Dollar's structural decline. Expecting a structural rise in yields, Julian takes us back 800 years quoting a research piece by the BoE that identified all major trend reversals in bond bull markets being caused by either a pandemic or war. Just how will this new regime shift Julian expects effect his actionable trade idea? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: So, Recession?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/recession#details Summary of Economic Projections: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf Lagarde plays down recession risks, says ECB is ready to 'move faster' on rates if needed. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/ecb-lagarde-plays-down-recession-risks-at-sintra-forum.html The current bond bull market is the longest in more than 500 years https://www.businessinsider.com/bank-of-england-paper-on-bond-bull-markets-through-the-years-2017-10?op=1&r=US&IR=T Bretton Woods III: https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (06:53) Can the Fed pivot? (13:59) Feature Interview With Julian Brigden (23:59) The Labor Market (29:03) Will the Fed turn dovish? (34:44) The U.S. Dollar vs Equities (39:24) Julian's Actionable Trade Idea (46:01) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (51:29) The Role of the US Dollar -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Russell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation

3 juli 2022 | 57 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley, Host of the "Forward Guidance" Podcast as Alfonso is away on holiday. They discuss the top stories of the week including the recent sell-off in commodities, policy errors by the ECB and a recent interview with Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey & Christine Lagarde. Andreas then welcomes Russell Clark, Former hedge fund manager of Russell Clark Investment Management for a discussion on the most important factor in markets right now, inflation. Expecting to see a switch from capital back to labor, structurally higher bond yields, higher inflation and elevated commodity prices, just what will this mean for markets? Russell then shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Russell: https://twitter.com/rampagingruss Follow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Central bankers warn of end to low inflation era: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2022/latest-30062022.html Stagflation 2.0 Is Here To Stay | Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7wE5m3TAY61LpZNBUc1x2u?si=b79c323837f1431e Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning: https://open.spotify.com/episode/36aWSiLz2tt45URVIOULTd?si=83c74291c04e40d9 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Top Stories Of The Week (08:09) Falling Commodity Prices (12:14) Feature Interview With Russell Clark (15:32) A Regime Shift in Inflation (25:13) A Regime Shift in Currencies (28:25) The U.S Dollar (34:52) Russell's Actionable Trade Idea (40:57) The BoJ & Yield Curve Control (44:53) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Two Trades To Navigate This Regime Shift

26 juni 2022 | 48 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week before offering up their very own trade idea for manoeuvring this environment. With all eyes on the Bank of Japan as they fiercely defend their yield curve control, many investors are worried about something breaking in Japan. Alfonso highlights that "the only entity that can break something in Japan, is Japan itself". Just how will Kuroda and the BoJ be forced react to a weakening Yen, surging yields and increasing pressure from the bond vigilantes. To find out, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Jerome Powell Takes a Pounding: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-takes-a-pounding-11655936900 The Bank of Japan will not be bullied: https://www.ft.com/content/cc054493-8339-4c53-a60c-a413b05404f9 The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2022/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Top Stories Of The Week (07:33) Bank Of Japan Will Not Be Bullied (12:06) Feature Interview With Andreas (12:38) What The Heck Is Going On With The BoJ? (20:31) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (27:36) Feature Interview With Alfonso (30:48) Heading For An Earnings Recession (37:13) Alfonso's Actionable Trade Idea (42:27) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Frances Donald: The Yield Curve Signals A Huge Warning

19 juni 2022 | 57 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Frances Donald Global Chief Economist & Strategist at Manulife Investment Management. Walking through the most important macro factor right now, inflation, Frances shares how every central bankers worst nightmare is manifesting itself in markets. Sharing her outlook on inflation and the bond market, Frances sees a scenario where the flattening yield curve will lead to another inversion across 2's 10's & 5's 30's. Could a new regime of secular stagflation be upon us? Frances then shares her actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/francesdonald Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927 ECB to design new bond-buying plan to tackle market turmoil: https://www.ft.com/content/c519e5d5-f4c3-4554-9484-ddca75cf9bf3?sharetype=gift Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:59) Top Stories Of The Week (07:41) Take Of The Week (14:33) Feature Interview With Frances Donald (16:03) FOMC Meeting (22:38) Inflation (27:21) The Neutral Rate (30:55) The Yield Curve (35:59) Frances' Actionable Trade Idea (39:27) Quantitative Tightening (42:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We Are Headed For A Deep Recession | Jesse Felder

12 juni 2022 | 53 min

Nick Givanovic: This is How You Kill Inflation

5 juni 2022 | 58 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Nick Givanovic. Nick provides a wealth of knowledge having spent over 40 year in the investment industry. From 1983 - 1993, Nick ran the largest bond book in the world, and has worked at some of the largest firms in the world including JP Morgan and Salomon. Nick joins the show to focus on the elephant in the room, inflation. Quoting Milton Friedman: "Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon", Nick provides a deep dive into why he believes inflation could remain persistent in this environment. He goes on to discuss the bond market mispricing, inflation expectations and how earnings repricing could drag equity markets lower. Finally, Nick shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Nick: https://twitter.com/NickGiva Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record as ECB Mulls How Quickly to Hike: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/euro-area-inflation-hits-record-as-ecb-mulls-how-quickly-to-hike#xj4y7vzkg Fed's Bostic calls for caution as Fed raises rates: 'Even firetrucks with sirens blaring slow down at intersections': https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-cant-be-reckless-in-the-way-it-pushes-up-interest-rates-bostic-says-11653410349?mod=article_inline Transcript: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the WSJ Future of Everything Festival: https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chairman-jerome-powell-at-the-wsj-future-of-everything-festival-11652821738 German retail sales drop in April as food prices bite: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-retail-sales-drop-more-than-expected-april-2022-06-01/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Top Stories Of The Week (13:11) Feature Interview With Nick Givanovic (15:03) Inflation Is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon (25:16) Inflation Expectations (29:38) Earnings Recpricing Will Drag The S&P Lower (36:14) Nick's Actionable Trade Idea (45:52) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Darius Dale: The Most Hated 20% Rally Ahead of Us

29 maj 2022 | 61 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Darius Dale Founder & CEO of 42 Macro. After correctly forecasting a slowdown in economic growth, an end to the reflation trade & pricing in a bear market throughout 2022, Darius joins Alf and Andreas to share his macro thesis for the second half of the year. Is the market beginning to price in an earnings recession? Are investors signalling a rotation into bonds after one of the worst start to the year since 1788? Darius provides a masterclass in the macro fundamentals driving markets before sharing his actionable trade idea but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Darius: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: In Fed's inflation fight, Bostic wants to avoid 'recklessness': https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-amps-up-inflation-fight-one-policymaker-urges-caution-2022-05-24/ Cathie Wood calls for 30 - 50% GDP growth from A.I https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1528179451070230530 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 3-4, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220504.pdf Apple raises pay as inflation climbs and labour competitiveness grows: https://www.ft.com/content/a9190b53-9f85-4362-ae95-1cf42473fdd3 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Top Stories of The Week (09:04) Fun Take of The Week (12:26) Feature Interview With Darius Dale (14:40) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:31) Slowing Growth Throughout 2022 (25:47) China Is In Recession (28:36) Effect of Quantitative Tightening On Markets (35:23) Darius's Actionable Trade Idea (44:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities

22 maj 2022 | 51 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director, Global Macro at TS Lombard. Drawing parallels between today and the 1970's, Dario walks us through his macro framework as global economies face inflation, recession & structural demographic issues. As China experiences continued lockdowns, Europe struggles with it's worst cost of living crisis since the 1940's and the U.S undertakes its rapid tightening of financial conditions, Dario predicts a very ugly outlook over the next 3-6 months. How will this macro environment influence Dario's actionable trade idea, to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Dario: https://twitter.com/darioperkins Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Dario's Blog: https://blogs.tslombard.com/author/dario-perkins Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Powell Says Fed Has Resolve to Bring U.S. Inflation Down https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-to-take-wsj-questions-on-inflation-and-economic-outlook-11652779802 Let The Macro Polar Stars Guide You https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-polar-stars?s=r#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Top Stories Of The Week (11:12) Feature Interview With Dario Perkins (19:01) Central Bank Reaction Function (23:43) Real Interest Rates (26:27) The Effect Of Demographics On Growth (31:49) Dario's Actionable Trade Idea (38:46) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (46:13) Previous Trade Reviews -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This Will Blow Up, And This Will Be Your Safe Haven

15 maj 2022 | 63 min

Saxo Bank CIO: Gold to $2500 | Steen Jakobsen

8 maj 2022 | 52 min

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen. With 30+ years investing through some of the most volatile periods in market history, Steen compares previous market cycles to today's stating, "November last year was the single biggest event in my life". As the Fed begins its most aggressive market tightening cycle in recent history, Steen expects a paradigm shift in investor preference towards commodities over financial assets. After walking us through his macro framework, Steen shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steen: https://twitter.com/Steen_Jakobsen Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Rocky ride ahead for Norway's $1.2 trillion wealth fund. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-ceo-warns-rocky-ride-ahead-2022-05-03/ Treasury Cuts Quarterly Debt Sale, May Do So Again Even With Fed QT. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/u-s-cuts-quarterly-debt-sale-may-do-so-again-even-with-fed-qt WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:43) Top Stories of The Week (10:56) Feature Interview With Steen Jakobsen (18:03) Is The Cure For High Prices, High Prices? (20:48) Lack of Energy CapEx (23:25) Energy Demand Destruction (28:25) The Fed's Terminal Rate (31:20) Steen's Actionable Trade Idea (38:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking Markets

1 maj 2022 | 70 min

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso and Andreas are joined by Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike shares his outlook for early signs of risks emerging in the economy and how those risks could impact markets throughout 2022. Drawing comparisons between the 2022 tech sell-off and the 2000 dot-com crash, Mike explains how the Fed is going to break markets. After walking us through his macro framework, Mike shares a trade he put on to maneuver these uncertain times. To hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Elon Musk just took out one of the biggest personal margin loans ever for his bid to buy out Twitter. Here's why Wall Street banks lined up to back the risky move. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-margin-loan-twitter-takeover-morgan-stanley-2022-4?r=US&IR=T Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/03/global-supply-chain-pressure-index-march-2022-update/ The Fed will plunge the US into a major recession by hiking rates above 5%, Deutsche Bank predicts. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-recession-warning-federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-deutsche-bank-2022-4 European Leaders Blast the Cutoff of Russian Gas to Poland and Bulgaria as 'Blackmail': https://time.com/6171594/russia-gas-nato-poland-bulgaria/ Longer-run economic consequences of pandemics? http://ssingh.ucdavis.edu/uploads/1/2/3/2/123250431/pandemics_jst_restat_final_feb2021_main.pdf -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Top Stories of The Week (10:14) Worst Take of The Week (15:49) Feature Interview with Mike Green (24:33) Fed Balance Sheet Reduction (28:56) The Neutral Rate & Fed Rate Hikes (35:55) Will The Green Transition Be Inflationary? (37:20) Have We Hit Peak Inflation? (41:13) Mike's Actionable Trade Idea (49:26) Closing Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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The Macro Trading Floor

The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly.

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