Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.

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Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years:

https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf

Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/