Decoding Geopolitics is a podcast that tries to make sense of today’s dangerous world by talking with real experts on international relations, strategy and security.
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This is a conversation with Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and a co-author of one the best books on China in recent years called the Danger Zone. In the book Michael made two big predictions: first, that China’s economic model will run into major problems - which seems to be already happening - and result in the end of China’s economic and political rise. And second, that this will make China much more dangerous and aggressive and make an invasion of Taiwan much more likely - which we still have to wait to see.
In this conversation, I wanted to revisit those predictions with Michael to ask how does he see China’s rise and decline today. Whether China’s economic problems can be reversed, how are they changing Beijing’s strategic calculus or how likely is a major war in the late 2020s. It's, in my view, one of the most interesting conversations I’ve had on the podcast so far - and I hope you will enjoy it as much as I did.
This is a teaser of a Patreon-exclusive content - geopolitical analysis usually only for Patreon members.➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/
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This is a conversation with Ronen Bergman. Ronen is a journalist at the New York Times based in Israel and an author of a unique book called Rise and Kill First about the history of Israeli state-sponsored targeted assassinations. Ronen spent years working on his research, digging into stuff that’s almost entirely classified and he spoke with dozens of former and current members of Israeli military, intelligence services and government - getting access that is completely unprecedented despite the fact that Israeli government and Mossad tried to do everything they could to stop him from doing that.
In this conversation how do you research something like that, where does the practice or state-sponsored assassinations originate, why does Israel use it more than perhaps any other nation, how do its representatives think about it, when and how did these operations literally rewrite history and whether they actually make Israel safer or not. And we also talk about the ethics and morals of all of that - because I don't want to be glorifying it and one of the reasons I liked the book was because Ronen doesn't do that either and he is an Israeli citizen who is very critical to his own country. And he, in my view, manages to stay objective, and critically analyze and evaluate what his own country does.
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Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Anne Applebaum, recorded at the Munich Security Conference. Anne is an American-Polish journalist and historian who has been writing on Russia and Eastern Europe for decades and whose insights I consider extremely valuable.
In the conversation we talk about the big speech that J.D. Vance gave at the conference how Europe should respond to the increasingly unpredictable foreign policies of the United States. And we also talked about Russia and Ukraine, possible negotiations and the end of the war or if this will finally be the wake up call for Europe or whether we will remain asleep at the wheel.
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This is a conversation with Soner Cagaptay, the director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute and a leading expert on Turkish foreign policy.
Turkey is an increasingly influential player in Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe but at the same time, it's rise and its strategy are hugely overlooked and misunderstood. And so I spoke with Soner about exactly that. About what is Turkey's grand strategy and what is it trying to achieve, how it's becoming a major power in the Middle East, why is it both an enemy and a friend of Russia, why is it even in NATO when it doesn't seem to be aligned on a number of issues with the majority of its members or what's the risk of war between Greece and Turkey - and much more.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and one of the most influential and respected thinkers on U.S. foreign policy and global power dynamics of today.
In this conversation, we talk about the return of geopolitics. About why are ideas about geopolitics that dominated the world a hundred years ago and that were at the beginning of all the great wars of the 20th century now making a comeback. And threaten to start other great wars in our time and define the 21st century as well. And whether and how, can it be prevented.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Jeremy Schapiro, a Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former advisor and policy planner at the U.S. State Department. And this conversation is about a single but extremely important question - what will the foreign policy of Donald Trump in the next four years look like. And how is it going to change the world as we know it.
We talked about how Donald Trump’s foreign policies actually created and who are the different ideological groups that shape them which is something that Jeremy wrote on quite a lot. And about what his policies will look like - on Russia and Ukraine, Europe and NATO, Iran and Israel and China and Taiwan.
My goal going into this was to be as unbiased and pragmatic as possible - to try to analyze what Donald Trump’s foreign policy on different issues might look like rather than to judge him as a person because there’s not enough of the first and more than of the latter. Whether it was successful or not, is up to you.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with General Ben Hodges. Ben is a former high-ranking U.S. general who ended his career as a Commander of the United States Army in Europe and today is one of the most respected commentators on the Ukraine war, defence and European security and a major advocate for the Ukrainian cause.
In this conversation we talk about what really mattered in the past year, from the Kursk offensive to North Korea joining the battlefield. About how the war developed and what is the balance of forces today, what can we expect of the year to come and what does Ben expect from the Trump administration when it comes to Russia and Ukraine. And we talk about a lot of difficult, uncomfortable but extremely important questions - from negotiations, to issues with Ukrainian mobilization or the changing Ukrainian public opinion.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Lennart Meschmayer. Lennart is a researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich who’s focusing on cyber warfare - how states use cyber power against each other both in times of war and peace and what role does cyber play in conflicts today. And that’s exactly what this conversation is all about.
We talk about what role does cyber play in the war in Ukraine, why we haven't seen a cyber apocalypse that many have predicted before the war started, why cyber warfare works really differently than most people think, why is Israel a hacking superpower or what would a cyber war between Russia and NATO look like.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Professor Justin Bronk. Justin is a Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute, a professor at the Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy, an active private pilot and one of the most respected experts on air power and technology in the world.
In this interview we talk about a lot of things. We discussed the F-35s and its criticism, how it compares to its Russian and Chinese counterparts or whether it will be replaced by drone swarms and unmanned technology. How did Ukraine change what role air power plays in conflicts, what kind of impact are F-16s having on the war or whether Ukrainian force will start operating Western-made planes. And we talk about how the near future will air power as we know it - from drone swarms, unmanned fighter jets and collaborative aircraft. It’s a great conversation and I really hope you’ll enjoy it.
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Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Aron Lund. Aron is an analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency and one of the world’s leading foreign experts on Syria, its security and politics. And in this conversation, we unpack everything that happened in the past week and what is going to happen now.
We talk about why no one saw the offensive coming and why did Assad’s regime fall so quickly, about who are actually the rebels who took it down, how radical are they and what can we expect of them. We discuss what this means for Turkey, Israel, Russia and Iran and the Middle East at large and what post-Assad Syria will look like - and why things might get a lot worse.
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This is a conversation with Eliot Cohen. Eliot is a military historian, a dean of the school of advanced international studies at John Hopkins University, a former official at the U.S. department of state and one of the most influential thinkers shaping U.S. foreign policy in recent decades.
But in this interview we talk about one specific topic: why did most analysts and experts completely failed to predict how the war in Ukraine would turn out following the Russian invasion. He recently published an extremely interesting paper dedicated to this issue, co-authored with professor Phillips O’Brien and so we dove deep into it: we talked about why most experts wildly overestimated Russian military capability and underestimated Ukraine’s readiness and resilience, why do we tend to either over and under-estimate Russia, whether the invasion could have actually turned out differently or what do most analysts still keep getting wrong.
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This is a conversation with Michael Sobolik, a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and an author of the book Countering China’s Great Game. And in this interview, we talk about China’s grand strategy - and what it actually looks like.
We discuss what are China’s geopolitical ambitions and why their origins go back way further than most people think, how does China uses the Belt and Road to increase their influence and why it often shoots itself in the foot doing so or why China is in danger of an imperial overstretch and how does Taiwan fit into its global vision.
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This is a conversation with Kenneth Pollack about one single question - why do militaries of Arab nations, despite often having superiority in numbers and better equipment than their opponents, tend to hugely underperform in modern military conflicts? And often end up losing wars which in theory they should win? It’s a question that has been asked by many but no one knows more about it than my guest.
He spent 30 years as an analyst in the CIA studying the Middle East and the militaries of both U.S. partners and adversaries. After leaving the CIA he became an academic and dedicated his academic career to answering this question. And so this is what we talk about - what is the real reason that Arab militaries tend to be notoriously ineffective, how does culture, economy or politics influence how they fight or why do organizations like Hezbollah seem to defy this rule and are a lot more effective than many larger and better equipped traditional Arab armies.
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This is a conversation with Ryan McBeth. Ryan is a former infantryman in the Marine Corps, an intelligence analyst, software architect and most importantly, a Youtube legend and one of my favorite creators.
In this conversation, we talk about a lot of things - from his background to what he thinks that Trump’s presidency will mean for the world of geopolitics. And also what’s his view of the situation of the war in Ukraine and how he thinks it might end, why does he believe that we are already living through WW3, whether China will invade Taiwan and much more.
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This is a conversation with Matthew Savill. Matthew is a Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute and he has over 20 years of experience of working on defense, intelligence and national security in leadership positions in the British civil service. And in this conversation we talk about the current state of the British military which according to many is not great.
We discuss whether the British military is in crisis and how bad it is, why is the British army becoming smaller than ever before in the last 200 years at a time of a growing threat to Europe, whether Britain can still afford to maintain a global blue-water navy or why does it have smaller armed forces than France despite spending more money on it.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com
This is a conversation with Dr. Ali Ansari, professor at St Andrews University and an expert on Iranian history and foreign policy. In this interview we talk about Iran's conflict with Israel - why both countries race against the clock to win, how the past months changed the balance of power between the two, about what it means for Iran's proxy groups in the region, about the great paradox of Iran's foreign policy and much more.
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This is a conversation with Tim Marshall. Tim has a long career as foreign correspondent, covering wars and revolution from the Balkans to the Middle East but he's mostly known for his series of books starting with Prisoners of Geography, in which he argues that more than anything it's geography that determines international relations.
I'm a fan of the books but at the same time I'm not sure if I agree with the theory and so in this interview we talk about whether this argument holds water, whether geography influenced Russia to invade Ukraine and whether we should even accept this premise and how it shapes the world from China to the Middle East.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com This is a conversation with Juliana Suess, the Research Fellow on Space Security at the Royal United Services Institute and in this episode, we talk about war in space. We discuss why space is increasingly becoming the most important warfighting domain, the new space race between China and the U.S., how is space warfare playing out in the Ukraine war, why is Russia putting nukes in space and much more.
➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com This is a conversation with Zbigniew PISARSKI, a leading Polish foreign policy and security analyst, President of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation and founder of the Warsaw Security Forum. In this conversation, we talk about Poland and specifically, about its rise as a new geopolitical and military power. We discuss why does Poland spend far more on defense than any other NATO member, how did its military transform since 2014, and Poland's rise as a new European geopolitical heavyweight - and much more.
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This is an interview with Ankit Panda. Ankit is an expert on nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, deterrence and he is a Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.And in this conversation, we talked about everything related to nuclear weapons. Why are they coming back to fashion, why are we living through the beginning of another nuclear arms race, why are countries and leaders becoming increasingly more comfortable with the idea of a limited nuclear war and much much more.
This is a special episode where I answer questions from my supporters on Patreon. It's a bit of a free-flowing rant rather than something that would be carefully scripted and thought-out, so keep that in mind.
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Might of the Chain: https://a.co/d/633rSOr
This is a conversation with Admiral Mike Studeman. Mike spent decades as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Navy, eventually becoming a Director of Intelligence at the Indo-Pacific Command and until very recently, he served as a Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, the oldest U.S. intelligence agency. He speaks Mandarin and throughout his career he has focused on studying and analyzing China and its military.
In this conversation, we talk about why the risk of a war with China is much higher than most people think and why Mike thinks that we are on a trajectory towards it. How is the Navy prepared for it, how is it adapting to the changing character of war or why the U.S. is losing to China in information warfare.
➡️ PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ This is an interview with General David Petraeus. General Petraeus spent 37 years in the U.S. Army. Over the course of his career, he led the U.S. Central Command, the U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and after his service in the military, he served as the Director of the CIA. Overall, he's considered one of the most prominent and effective military leaders of this century. In this conversation, we talk about his experience from Iraq and Afghanistan, but mostly about the war in Ukraine - what lessons should we be taking from it, whether we have a strategy to win and what's going to happen next.
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This is a conversation with Dmitri Alpetrovitch. Dmitri is a chairman of a think-tank called Silverado Policy Accelerator and an author of a new book World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century about how to win a cold war with China and prevent it from turning it into a hot one.
We talked about who's winning the Cold War of the 21st century, why Taiwan is the new West Berlin and whether Xi Jinping will decide to invade or not and much more.
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This is a conversation with Kirill Shamiev. Kirill is a Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he primarily focuses on the Russian military - and that's exactly what we talked about.
We discussed what is the state of the Russian military today, two and a half years into the war, whether it is able to learn and improve, what was the meaning behind the purges at the Russian ministry of defense, how much corruption affects Russian combat capability or how fast will it be able to rebuild its military to potentially face NATO.
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This is a conversation with Yusuf Unjhawala - a defence analyst from a leading Indian think-tank the Takshashila Institution.In this interview, I wanted to better understand India's foreign policy and security challenges and how India actually sees the world from its own perspective. And so we talked about why India doesn't have allies, why it wants to be friends with both Russia and the West or why a war between India and China might be more likely than a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I hope you like it and now, enjoy the conversation.
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Jean H. Lee is a journalist and foreign policy analyst renowned for her expertise in covering North Korea and Northeast Asian affairs. She is co-host of the award-winning Lazarus Heist podcast for the BBC World Service and a former Pyongyang bureau chief for the Associated Press news agency.
Jean began reporting on the ground in North Korea in 2008. In 2011, she became the first American journalist to join the Pyongyang foreign press corps in North Korea. In 2012, she opened AP’s Pyongyang bureau, the first and only US news bureau in North Korea. Her work in North Korea from 2008 to 2017 included nearly three years working alongside North Korean staff and colleagues in Pyongyang on assignments that took her across the closed nation to visit farms, factories, schools, military academies, and homes in the course of her exclusive coverage.
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Dr. Jack Watling is Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Jack works closely with the British military on the development of concepts of operation, assessments of the future operating environment, and conducts operational analysis of contemporary conflicts.
In this conversation, we talked about two wars that Russia is currently waging: an overt one against Ukraine and a covert war against the West. Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon - and if you want to support what I'm doing, do consider becoming a supporter on Patreon as well.
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This is a conversation with Jake Broe, a former Nuclear and Missile Operations Officer and one of the biggest Youtubers providing daily updates on the war in Ukraine.
We talked about why Jake thinks Donald Trump will leave NATO, why the war will end with a political and economic collapse of Russia and much, much more.
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This is a conversation with Mykola Bilieskov, a Ukrainian analyst and a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine institute under the Ukrainian presidential administration.
We talked about why Ukrainians are hesitant to join the military, why Western model of support for Ukraine is not working anymore, why he is more worried about the next year than this one and why NATO might have to join the conflict one way or another.
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This is a conversation with Minna Alander - a research fellow at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs who's focusing, among other topics on Finnish security and defence policy, Nordic defence cooperation and Arctic security.
Finland is quite an exception among European countries - because while today many are panicking and trying to make up for years of underfunding, Fins seems to be quite calm - as they have been ready to fight Russia on their own for decades - as they have done in the past in multiple iconic conflicts.
In this conversation we talk about why is Finland prepared for war better than almost anyone else, what is the Finnish perspective of the Russian threat, how did Finland joining NATO completely changed the calculus for both NATO and Russia and what would a Russian invasion fo Finland look like.
Thank you to everyone who is supporting this podcast on Patreon - it's incredibly helpful. And now, enjoy the conversation.
This is a conversation with Thomas Van Linge - a freelance journalist and a researcher covering the world's forgotten conflicts, including the civil war in Myanmar. Recently, he came back from a research trip to the rebel-held areas in Myanmar where he stayed with the rebels, visited the frontlines and saw up close what the war looks like.
In this conversation, we talk about why is the military starting to lose and how close it is from a final defeat, why is Russia supplying the military dictator, what is China's role in the conflict and what will happen to Myanmar once the dictatorship falls.
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This is a conversation with Ben Hodges, a retired three star general of the US army, the former Commander of US Army Europe and someone who spent more than three decades as a military officer and achieved one of the highest posts in the US Armed Forces.
In this interview, we discussed what the latest military package means for Ukraine, why the West seems to prioritize avoiding escalation more than defeating Russia, whether we should send troops to Ukraine, how could Ukraine retake Crimea or whether we should worry about the fall of Putin's regime.
Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon - and now, enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Lukas Milevski, a professor at Leiden University and an expert on strategy and defense and security of the Baltic countries. In this interview, we talk about what would happen if Russia invades the Baltics, how prepared they are, if they could be successful and how big of a risk it actually is.
Thank you to everyone supporting this podcast - and now, enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Brian Hart - a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and an expert on China's military and its foreign and security policy. We talked about what is the real capability of China's military, whether it's a paper tiger or if it's prepared and ready to take Taiwan by force, if 2027 is the year when we should expect the war to happen or how ready is Taiwan to fight back.
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This is a conversation with David Gioe. David has two decades of experience as an intelligence officer, starting his career in the FBI and then joining the CIA, first as an analyst and later as an field-qualified operations officer. He deployed a number of times overseas and worked on counter-intelligence, clandestine operations and covert action. After retiring from the CIA, David has moved to academia and today he works as a professor of History at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and he is a visiting professor of Intelligence and and International Security in the Department of War Studies at King's College London.
We talked about how the world of intelligence really works, how it has changed since the cold war or how agents working in the field do their job at a time when anonymity is increasingly disappearing. And how the CIA manages to stay ahead of the Russians, why Chinese spies work differently than anyone else and much much more.
Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon. If you want to follow David you can go to his Twitter or website and now, enjoy this conversation.
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This is a conversation with Mark Galeotti - an honorary professor at UCL, a senior associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute, director of Mayak Intelligence and one of the most renowned experts on Russia and Russian politics.
We talked about the attacks in Moscow - whether he thought it could have been a false flag, or whether the Russian propaganda will succeed in shifting blame to Ukraine. And about the broader picture - when might the war in Ukraine end and how, whether Russia is weaker than it looks and much more.
Thank you to everyone who supports this podcast on Patreon, and now enjoy the conversation.
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Dr Ulrike Franke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations who's focusing on German Security, Foreign and Defense policy and has a deep insight into the inner workings of German political and security institutions.
We talked about how Germany has changed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, why it struggles so much to rebuild its military, why it still refuses to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine, whether the German public has abandoned its pacifism or whether Germany should get a nuclear bomb.
Thank you to everyone who's supporting this podcast on Patreon and now enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Alex Vatanka - a Tehran-born expert on Iranian domestic and foreign policy and a director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute.
In this conversation we talk about Iran's geopolitical strategy - what is it trying to achieve, what are its motivations and goals but also about whether it would benefit from a large regional war, to what extent it controls Hamas, how stable is the Iranian regime and much much more.
Thank you so much to everyone for supporting this podcast. And now enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with General Mick Ryan. Mick is a former high commanding officer in the Australian Army and today works mostly on the topic of the future of war. He wrote two excellent books - War Transformed in which he explains how technology will shape future conflicts and White Sun War - a fictional account of war over Taiwan in which he brings these ideas to life and shows how devastating a superpower conflict would look like. In this interview we talk about all of that and much more.
Enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Szabolc Panyi, a leading Hungarian investigative journalist who's been working for years on Hungarian Russian relations and Russian influence activities in Hungary.
He was trying to help me understand why Viktor Orban acts like a Russian Trojan Horse, what is he trying to get from the European Union and what's behind the unlikely alliance between him and Tucker Carlson. And now enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Vlad Vexler, a fellow Youtuber and a political philosopher with excellent insight into the Russian state and society. We talked about Navalny, Tucker Carlson's Putin interview, why there is a lack of opposition to Putin's regime and what would it take for someone to successfully challenge him and many other things. It was one of the most interesting conversations I've had on the channel so far and I have a lot to think about now.
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This is a conversation with David Rennie, a China-based reporter for the Economist, a head of their Beijing Bureau and a co-author of an excellent podcast on China, the Drum Tower. David has lived and worked in China for decades, he speaks fluent Chinese and talks to both Chinese officials and people on the ground on a regular basis.
And so we talked about whether the Chinese leadership wants to take Taiwan by force and if it's preparing to do that, why the growing disillusionment with the economy is making the government very nervous and why even Chinese leadership has to care about what people think. And about many other things. Thank you to everyone who has decided to support this podcast on Patreon, it means a lot. And now enjoy the conversation.
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This is a conversation with Anders Puck Nielsen, a military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College, a former Captain in the Royal Danish Navy and a fellow Youtuber. We talked about which of the two sides in the war in Ukraine actually has time on their side, why Russians use meat wave tactics, why do we misunderstand what a NATO-Russia conflict would look like and how can Ukraine win this war. And many other things.
Thank you to all the people who support this podcast on Patreon because you make this possible. And now enjoy this conversation.
0:00 - Intro
01:19 - Ukraine War & Naval Warfare
09:59 - Ukraine War & Air Warfare
09:59 - Ukraine War & Air Warfare
14:39 - Land Warfare & Russian "Meat wave" Tactics
29:41 - How can Ukraine Win the War?
41:11 - Who has time on their side?
44:27 - What if General Zaluzhny gets replaced?
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This is a conversation with General Richard Shirref. General Shirreff was one of the highest ranking British military commanders and a second in command of NATO forces. He has been warning of the Russian threat long before it became mainstream and in 2016, after he left the military he published a book called War with Russia in which Russia attacks Ukraine and afterwards continues to invade the Baltics, catching NATO completely unprepared - a book that was meant as a warning for what might be coming.
In this conversation, we talk about why he was one of the few people who saw the threat clearly years before everyone else, why it would be extremely dangerous to underestimate the Russians and how prepared is NATO for a Russian aggression. Richard is extremely candid in his answers and he's not afraid to be critical and say things as they really are and so I think it's an extremely interesting conversation. Thank you to everyone who supports this show on Patreon because you make this possible, and now enjoy the podcast.
00:00 - Intro
01:17 - Predicting Russian Invasion
06:51 - Why we refused to see the Russian threat
11:09 - Russian Invasion in 2022
13:15 - Underestimating the Ukrainians
18:05 - Overestimating the Russians
21:55 - The Russian Threat for NATO
34:06 - How Prepared is NATO?
36:54 - The state of the British Military
40:42 - Do we need to introduce conscription?
44:31 - Is Taiwan a window of opportunity for Russia
46:47 - Can Europe defend itself without the U.S.?
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This is a conversation with George Barros. George leads the team at the Institute for the Study of War that is responsible for tracking and analyzing the war in Ukraine and making daily updates on what is going on in the battlefield and on the strategic level. They are now the most quoted think-tank in the world and so there is a good chance that you have seen George's work before.
In this conversation, we talk about the shape of the Russian military as it's getting ready for a major offensive against Ukraine, what are the real Russian losses and when will the Russians finally run out of tanks and whether Russia would and could attack NATO. And we also talked about the work of his team at ISW, how they track and analyze the conflict and how open source intelligence is changing the character of war. Enjoy the conversation.
This is a conversation with Francis Farrel, an Australian-born journalist based in Ukraine, Working as a reporter focusing on the war and often reporting directly from the frontlines for the Kyiv Independent, a major Ukrainian English-language newspaper.
We talked about what the situation on the ground in Ukraine looks like, what is the strategy for 2024, how long can Ukraine last without further Western aid or whether journalists should be publishing negative stories about Ukraine in time of war. Make sure that you check out Kyiv Independent, it's a great source of news directly from the source and I also recommend following Francis on Twitter as he shares some really interesting stuff. And now, enjoy the conversation.
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00:00 - Intro
01:45 - Situation on the ground in Ukraine
05:29 - Ukraine's Strategy for 2024
10:51 - Is Ukraine Ready for Defense?
16:52 - Rift Between Military and Political Leadership
24:52 - Why Approval for Zelensky Is Going Down
29:07 - How long can Ukraine last without foreign aid
35:01 - What Trump Re-Election Would Mean for Ukraine
39:46 - Ukraine and Further Mobilization
47:04 - Should journalists publish negative stories about Ukraine?
54:46 - Good News from Ukraine
This is a conversation with Mark Cancian. Mark is an incredibly accomplished scholar and a soldier - he has spent three decades in the U.S. Marine Corps, served in Vietnam, the Operation Desert Storm and the Iraq War and he has taught and worked at Harvard and John Hopkins Universities and today he serves as a Senior Advisor at the Washington think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But the reason we talked today was because last Mark was one of the leads on an incredibly interesting project that took place last year - the largest and most complex publicly available wargame of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Using an incredible amount of data, a large number of players and 25 iterations, Mark and his colleagues tried to simulate what would happen if China attacked. In this conversation we talked about how this invasion would go down, what would be its result, whether the United States military is ready for it and how to stop it from escalating into a global conflict. You can find the report from the wargame in the description below and now enjoy the podcast.
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Wargame report: https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
00:00 - Intro
01:24 - What would a Chinese invasion look like?
18:19 - Do Chinese wargames have the same results?
23:29 - How should the U.S. military prepare?
34:25 - Is the United States prepared for the mass casualties?
37:05 - Why the U.S. Air Force Needs To Change
39:45 - “The Anti-Chinese Coalition”
43:39 - How to prevent an escalation into a global conflict
46:20 - Probability of a Chinese Invasion
Robert Ward is a Japan Chair at the International Institute for Strategic Studies with decades of experience with Japanese security, defense and foreign policy. We talked about why Japan is abandoning its pacifism, how does it see the threat from China and whether Japan would join a potential war over Taiwan. Enjoy.
Dr. Christian Molling is a deputy director of The German Council on Foreign Relations's Research Institute and the head of its Center for Security and Defense and an expert on German and European foreign and security policy and defense industry.
And he is also a co-author of a recent report called Preventing the Next War which has received an unprecedented amount of attention across Europe and which calls on Germany and NATO to urgently prepare for a potential large-scale war with Russia that might happen in the next 6 to ten years.
Mark Galeotti is the director of the consulting firm Mayak Intelligence, honorary professor at UCL, former advisor to the Foreign Office and one of the most widely recognized experts on Russia and its security and foreign policy. We talked about why so many experts failed to predict the Russian invasion, whether Putin has a grand strategy and why Putin's regime is much more fragile than it seems. Enjoy.
Dr. Jade McGlynn is a researcher at King’s College London that looky at how Russia uses history to shape the present. We talked about why regular Russians support the war in Ukraine, whether Putin believes his own propaganda and why Ukraine is so incredibly important for him and for Russia in general. Enjoy.
How long Russia can sustain its war in Ukraine before its economy will fall apart? Why sanctions didn't work the way we expect them to? And why is the crumbling Russian economy more resilient than it seems?
Maximilian Hess is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the founder of the London-based political risk firm Enmetena Advisory. He is also the author of Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West. His research focuses on the relationship between trade, debt, international relations, and foreign policy, as well the overlap between political and economic networks.
En liten tjänst av I'm With Friends. Finns även på engelska.