The Convergence – An Army Mad Scientist Podcast

[Editor’s Note:  As we reported earlier this month, “The Operational Environment is increasingly lethal with the ubiquity of sensors and proliferation of battlefield automation facilitating effective precision and massed strike capabilities.  Forces that can be sensed are targeted, and if targeted, are destroyed or rendered inoperable. ” This increasingly transparent battlespace has been wrought by the democratization and convergence of commercial satellite imagery, inexpensive Unmanned Aerial System (UAS)-borne sensing platforms, and the Internet of Everything and Everyone. The resulting web of networked sensors could usher in the end of covert movement for combat units and their associated command and control and logistical support nodes, and with that spell the demise of strategic and operational deception and surprise.

This battlespace transparency is driving a renewed quest for concealment.  In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Dr. Andrea Alù to discuss the reality of invisibility, the science behind metamaterials, and the associated possibilities for the U.S. Army.

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Andrea Alù is a Distinguished Professor, founding director of the Photonics Initiative at the CUNY Advanced Science Research Center, Einstein Professor of Physics at the CUNY Graduate Center, and Professor of Electrical Engineering at The City College of New York. He is affiliated with the Wireless Networking and Communications Group and the Applied Research Laboratories, both based at the University of Texas at Austin, where he is a Senior Research Scientist and Adjunct Professor. His research interests span a broad range of technical areas, including applied electromagnetics, nano-optics and nanophotonics, microwave, THz, infrared, optical and acoustic metamaterials and metasurfaces, plasmonics, nonlinearities and nonreciprocity, cloaking and scattering, acoustics, optical nanocircuits and nanoantennas.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Alù to discuss the reality of invisibility, the science behind metamaterials, and the associated possibilities for the U.S. Army.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• Alù’s work focuses on wave physics, specifically looking at how to structure materials at the nanoscale to change their interactions with waves – light, sound, and radio – and demonstrate phenomena that would not be possible otherwise, for example invisibility.These new structured materials are called metamaterials because their properties go beyond those of natural materials. 

• By structuring materials in specific ways, a “cloak” can be created and, when wrapped around an object, can suppress the scattering of light or waves which is what allows the object to be visible. This process causes a transparency effect on the object, effectively causing it to disappear.  

• There is a limit, however, to making an object fully transparentwhen using passive materials which require no energy. There is a tradeoff between the size of the object and the amount of suppression of scattering waves from the object –- the larger the object, the harder it is to achieve full suppression of the scattering waves. 

• Invisibility may be traditionally thought of as an object not being visible to the human eye, though other waves can be cloaked as well. Cloaking radio waves can make an object electro-magnetically disappear. For example, an aircraft’s electromagnetic footprint is dominated by only a few parts and reducing the signature of those parts would make the aircraft effectively transparent to most sensors. 

• The ideal result of a cloaked object is that it is truly not detectable in any frequency range — however Dr. Alù’s team has proven that there are fundamental limits to cloaking frequencies — there is no way to cloak an object from all frequencies.It is possible to cloak an object (such as an aircraft) from conventional radar frequency, but this in turn creates a larger signature at other frequencies. 

• The On-going Concealment Challenge: The Internet of Everything and Everyone is increasing transparency and granularity across the modern battlespace, transforming everyone and everything into potential sensors. The convergence of inexpensive commercial technologies has further democratized battlefield transparency, as commercial satellite imagery, urban CCTVs, and the proliferation of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) provide multiple corroborating views.  The quest for concealment will spur continued development of sensor countermeasures in the enduring competition for battlefield advantage.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 14 December 2023!

If you enjoyed reading this post, please also see our discussions regarding Concealment in the Fundamental Questions Affecting Army Modernization and Finders vs Hiders in Timeless Competitions…

… as well as the following related content:

Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization

War Laid Bare and Decision in the 21st Century, by Matthew Ader

Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age by Chris O’Connor 

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Democratized Intelligence, by Kate Kilgore

Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and its associated podcast, as well as Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and its associated podcast, both with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Regular consumers of Army Mad Scientist content — via this blog site and The Convergence podcast — will understand how wargaming can enhance Professional Military Education (PME), hone cognitive warfighting skills, and broaden our understanding of the Operational Environment.  Wargaming removes hierarchies and encourages players to attempt innovative solutions, while also creating a safe environment in which to fail repeatedly and learn from mistakes.  Wargaming can also help us assess concepts and capabilities with a reasonable degree of verisimilitude — before committing the Nation to costly, and in some instances, irrevocable courses of action.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we report back from “Fight Night” in Washington, D.C. , where we sat down with the Hon. William M. (“Mac”) Thornberry, former U.S. Representative for Texas’ 13th Congressional District and former Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, to discuss the importance of wargaming to public policy, his experiences with it on Capitol Hill, and what we can do to better emphasize it with our lawmakers — Enjoy!]

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The Almanac of American Politics 2020 called William M. (“Mac”) Thornberry “one of Congress’ brainiest and most thoughtful members on national and domestic security issues,” and said that he “has long been at the forefront of national security issues.”  USA Today said Mac has “experience in Washington, a rare long view and a reputation for serious, thoughtful problem-solving.”​ Since leaving Congress after 26 years, which included service as Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Mac continues to work at the intersection of technology and national security.  He serves various companies and non-profit organizations as a board member and advisor.

Consistently on the leading edge of critical national security issues during his time in Congress, Mac led in creating the National Nuclear Security Administration to improve management of the nation’s nuclear weapons complex; establishing the Department of Homeland Security (introducing a bill to do so six months before the attacks of 9/11); preparing the military to defend the nation in new domains of warfare such as space and cyber; and improving DOD’s innovation and acquisition efforts.

In addition to serving on the House Armed Services Committee throughout his time in Congress, Mac also served on the House Intelligence Committee for 14 years. He has written widely on defense matters and appeared on all major television channels providing insight on national security-related issues.

In December 2021, Mac received the Peace Through Strength Award from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute.  He is also the recipient of the Distinguished Service Medals from the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, as well as the Marine Corps Foundation’s Semper Fidelis Award, the American Legion’s Distinguished Public Service Award, the Sam Nunn National Security Leadership Award from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and awards from the Aerospace Industries Association, Military Officers Association, National Defense Industrial Association, Non Commissioned Officer Association, Computing Technology Industry Association, USO-Metro among others. During the fall 2021 semester, he was a Resident Fellow at the Institute of Politics in Harvard’s Kennedy School and has been named a Distinguished Alumnus of Texas Tech University.

Born in Clarendon, Texas and raised on the family ranch in Donley County, Mac is a graduate of Clarendon High School, Texas Tech University, and the University of Texas Law School. After law school he worked in Washington on Capitol Hill and as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Legislative Affairs in the State Department under President Reagan. In 1989, Mac joined his brothers in the cattle business and practiced law in Amarillo until his election to Congress.​

Army Mad Scientist caught up with Mac at “Fight Night” in Washington, D.C., on 23 September 2023, where he headlined the event.  We spoke with him about the importance of wargaming to public policy, his experiences with it on the Hill, and what we can do to better emphasize it with our lawmakers.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• National security issues today are more complex than ever. Developing the intellectual capital of our military and congressional leadersby exploring scenarios and decision-making through wargaming is becoming even more crucial. 

• Wargaming provides political leaders with a deeper understanding of dealing with large, complex problems and the practical support required for military operations, making it a very important and useful tool for Congress.  Consequences of decision-making are clearer and more impactful when played out in a game. 

• A positive, working relationship between congressional and military leaders is necessary at the strategic level, as conflicts are no longer isolated to the military. Conflicts will have implications for all Government departments, from the Department of Homeland Security to the State Department. 

• Wargaming is especially significant for planning and readiness, allowing players to explore different scenarios to determine whether execution of a particular plan is possible given current readiness.This has large implications for resource decision-making, as Congress must provide and maintain for the military. 

• Joint wargames between congressional and military leadership provide both parties an opportunity to make decisions side-by-side while experiencing how the other thinks and operates. Games conducted with joint participation allow both to simultaneously understand, anticipate, and execute planning and operations, learning in a safe, controlled, and iterative environment. 

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 09 November 2023, when we report back from “Fight Night” (Part Two) with the designers, coordinators, and participants and their insights on the importance of wargaming!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle

From Legos to Modular Simulation Architectures: Enabling the Power of Future (War) Play, by Jennifer McArdle and Caitlin Dohrman

The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives with Cathy Hackl and associated podcast

Gamers Building the Future Force  and associated podcast

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist continues to explore issues impacting the Operational Environment, especially those directly affecting U.S. Army operations in the contemporary battlespace. Over the past decade-plus, dual use automation technologies have increasingly been weaponized by state and non-state actors alike, democratizing warfighting capabilities in the air, land, and sea domains.  In the air domain, Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS) initially provided Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities without the associated costs and infrastructure required to operate manned platforms.  More recently, we’ve witnessed ISR and strike capabilities converge in small UAS (sUAS), granting lesser powers the ability to identify, reach, and strike targets — “lower[ing] the ‘entry fee’ into combined arms operations.”

With this democratization of the air domain, we’re also witnessing the resurgence of Mass.  Virtually anyone will “be able to use these small, cheap, and individually expendable platforms to almost continuously gather real-time intelligence and choose the time and place to overwhelm an adversary’s defenses through sheer volume” — creating, in the eloquent words of proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown, Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back!

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features our interview with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.) exploring the very real, contemporary threat presented by sUAS, what trends he’s seeing emerge from current and recent conflicts, and how the U.S. Army, the Joint Force, and the Nation as a whole should respond.   Read the highlights from our interview below, then listen to this important podcast — it’s not too late, but the time to act is now!]

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 COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.) currently serves as President of Federal and Public Safety at Building Intelligence, Inc.  Before this role, COL Edwards was a Principal in Protective Design and Security for Thornton Tomasetti, a globally recognized structural engineering firm. As an organizational leader, he has been instrumental in expanding the organization’s global footprint by providing strategic direction in the startup of a new security consultancy division focused on providing comprehensive security-driven risk mitigation approaches and business continuity solutions.  

Before this, COL Edwards served as the Director of Intelligence, Special Operations Command North, where he oversaw the successful unification of interagency communications in support of Homeland Defense. He additionally earned recognition for transforming a struggling $400M DoD technical intelligence program as the Capability Director for the U.S. Army’s Intelligence Center, and served as a Commander in the U.S. Army, overseeing strategic military and intelligence operations in theatres across the globe.

From 2009 to 2011, COL Edwards served as a Commander and Director of Operations during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn. In this highly complex leadership role, he led a U.S. Army Battalion of 800 personnel, a $50M operating and contract budget, and numerous governances, economic development, and security readiness programs. He additionally managed two major U.S. Base facilities, as well as numerous outposts, located throughout a geographic region the size if the State of Kentucky. Lastly, he led the Brigade’s Counter Improvised Explosive Device (IED) network defeat operations. 

COL Edwards co-authored Inside Abu Ghraib:  Memoirs of Two U.S. Military Intelligence Officers, and is an editorial writer for Forbes, ASIS International, Security Industry Association (SIA), and Security Magazine. He is routinely invited to speak at nationally attended security industry symposiums. He holds two Master’s Degrees in National Security and Public Administration and most recently attended Harvard’s Executive Negotiations and Duke University’s Executive Leadership programs.  COL Edwards has also created three adult learning classes to support education surrounding the small Uncrewed Aerial System (sUAS) technology — The Evolution of Drones in Society and Conflict — found at:  www.phoenix6consulting.com. Based on his strengths as a contextual leader, COL Edwards has proven his ability to serve as an agent of change by identifying and resolving enterprise-level issues, creating identity, and harnessing the “power of the team”.  He has extensive experience in high-profile security projects in a myriad of markets.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL Edwards to discuss the contemporary threat presented by sUAS, what trends he’s seeing emerge from current and recent conflicts, and how the U.S. Army, the Joint Force, and the Nation as a whole should respond.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• Advancements in sUAS technology are changing modern conflict— creating a Revolution in Military Affairs — making the air domain an integral part of comprehensive security program development.  As the convergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems matures into new technology, our training models at every level must teach our Soldiers how to fight and win in this environment and Leaders how to recognize and defend against the threat these capabilities represent to their units and missions.  

• The Russia/Ukraine conflictis the latest laboratory for the evolution of sUAS platforms, especially with the evolution of First-Person View (FPV) drone technology – using virtual reality to fly a drone with strike precision into a target. The evolution of sUAS technology can be traced to the Israel/Hamas conflict in 2021, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, the initial Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2014, and as far back as Iraq in 2010. 

• Drone usage in the Russia/Ukraine conflict is different than any other recent modern conflict – commanders today are facing an entirely new set of challenges. In 2010, enemy forces started to develop sUAS technology solely for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities.  In the contemporary battlespace,ISR and weapons delivery capabilities have converged in Category 1-3 drones. 
  
  
• Drone and sUAS platforms can be extremely cheap, making them easily accessible to smaller nations, governments, and organizations.In recent conflicts, governments have also urged private citizens to offer their drones to assist with ISR capabilities. The advancement of 3-D printing is another mechanism heavily relied on throughout the Russia/Ukraine conflict for creating launch-and-forget drone platforms that can carry a payload.  

• With further blurred lines between military and civilian targets, there will be no rear area in future conflicts.Critical infrastructure in a conflict zone requires a layered, integrated defense for the air domain (not just air defense, but organic Counter-UAS, across all echelons and spanning the entire battlespace, from the forward edge of battle, Rear and Staging Areas, Air and Sea Ports of Embarkation/ Debarkation, all the way back to the garrison). Protecting critical infrastructure is also a top priority for the private sector.  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 26 October 2023, when we report back from “Fight Night” in Washington, D.C.   — a night of wargaming and wargamers — and talk with the Hon. Mac Thornberry about the importance of wargaming to public policy, his experiences with it on the Hill, and what we can do to better emphasize it with our lawmakers!

If you enjoyed this post, check out how China, our pacing challenge, is thinking about employing UAS:

The PLA and UAVs – Automating the Battlefield and Enhancing Training

A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations

China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare

The PLA: Close Combat in the Information Age and the “Blade of Victory”

… as well as the following related Army Mad Scientist content:

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Turkey and the TB-2: A Rising Drone Superpower and its associated podcast, with Karen Kaya

The Dawn of the Loitering Munitions Era, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Daniel S. Nasereddine

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and its associated podcast, as well as Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and its associated podcast, both with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)

Insights from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in 2020 (Part I and II)

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan.

Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back! by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown

How Big of a Deal are Drone Swarms?, A New Age of Terror: The Future of CBRN Terrorism, and A New Age of Terror: New Mass Casualty Terrorism Threats, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachary Kallenborn

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast

The Future of Ground Warfare and its associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw

Character of Warfare 2035

Ground Warfare in 2050: How It Might Look, The Intelligent Battlefield of the Future, and its associated podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Alexander Kott

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist has extensively explored how Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) can be harnessed to enhance our Warfighters’ ability to fight at machine speed and sustain our decisive Soldier overmatch. But as frequent contributor COL Stefan J. Banach (USA-Ret.) has noted, the evolution and convergence of technologies has added a new non-kinetic battle space to conventional warfare, which in turn requires the recruiting and retention of adaptive Warfighters, with highly-tuned aptitudes for tactical innovation and rapid, decisive decision-making. The challenge facing the Army is how to effectively identify and then screen for these and other requisite talents.

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast features our interview with Mr. Loran Ambs, Chief Technology Officer, Ideal Innovations, Inc., regarding his company’s research into measuring the distinctive characteristics of innate talent, identifying potential high performers, and how the Army can harness AI/ML to screen and match these high performers with specialty vocations — Read on!]

Mr. Loran Ambs serves as the Chief Technology Officer for Ideal Innovations, Inc.  He supports the development and implementation of innovation processes at I-3 and DoD customer sites.  Mr. Ambs participates in the conception, development, and transition of technical solutions for problems affecting operations of the DoD and intelligence communities.  He conducts basic and applied research into techniques using measures of brain activation for the discovery of traits, aptitude, knowledge, interest, familiarity, group association and compatibility applied to selection and assessment of individuals for in military, government, academic and commercial environments. Mr. Ambs is inventor or co-inventor of more than 30 issued U.S. patents including several related to brain activation matching, brain matched compatibility, and knowledge discovery.   

Mr. Ambs previously served as the on-site PM in Afghanistan for the installation and operation of stand-off biometric data collection, remotely operated ISR systems, wireless data communication, data fusion, aggregation and presentation capabilities leading to increased safety and effectiveness of our soldiers and coalition partners.  He served as the Chief Scientist for the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) in which he participated in the identification, acquisition, development, test, and transition of solutions for the detection, neutralization, and mitigation of IEDs.  He collaborated with the DoD Service branches, DoD labs, National Labs, operational units, Congressional staffers, Defense Science Board, Army Science Board, National Academies, JASONS, industry, and academic institutions to focus the Nation’s resources on defeating IEDs.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Ambs to discuss his company’s research into measuring the distinctive characteristics of innate talent, identifying potential high performers, and how the Army can harness AI/ML to screen and match these high performers with specialty vocations (e.g., pilots, special operators, and other select duty positions).  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• Training is expensive – it costs $13 million to train one F-35 pilot – so devoting resources to personnel who are not suited to a specific competency or MOS is wasteful. Looking at a prospective trainee’s brain activation response, and comparing the results to a successful pilot can identify those who are more likely to complete the training successfully.
  
  
• Brain activation response through Electroencephalogram (EEG) is inexpensive, highly portable, and well understood. Other methods like Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (FMRI) may provide higher detail and fidelity, but it’s not practical for each trainee to sit through an FMRI scan. Multiple EEG headsets can be administered to trainees quickly and unobtrusively to gather data. 

• Ambs’ method was used with the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regimentto find a signature or baseline with which to compare their trainee data. Using a group of highly specialized aviators was deliberate in order to find a signature that would be vastly different from the general population.  

• The data processing and pattern recognition powers of AI/MLcan be harnessed to “crunch” EEG scan data to correlate brain activation responses and help identify signature markers for aptitudes associated with specialty vocations. 

• Beyond identifying aptitudes for specific trainings or vocations, creating a large library of brain activation responses allows for comparisons to be made and outliers to be recognized. This means no brain scan goes unused, and personnel can be grouped even if conducted for a different training. 

• Brain activation response monitoring is dynamic. If successful, this technology and method of evaluation could transcend Army Professional Military Education (PME) and trainingand be used to identify specific aptitudes in the Government writ-large, academia, and the private sector.  

• This is not designed to exclude or deny anyone training. It is designed to assist in identifying innate capabilities and align strengths and weaknesses with the best opportunities for success. It is one piece of data at a more granular levelto help decision-makers make better decisions.  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 28 September 2023.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

It’s All In Your Head: How The Brain Makes Better Soldiers and associated podcast, with Zach Schonbrun

Go with the Flow: Enhancing Human Cognition and associated podcast, with Dr. Maria Kozhevnikov

Making Quick Decisions, Quicker! and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by then LTC Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

>>>>ANNOUNCEMENT:  The U.S. Army War College is preparing for the Third Annual Strategic Landpower Symposium on 7-9 May 2024. 

Last year’s Second Annual Strategic Landpower Symposium included several general officer speakers. GEN Flynn, CG, USARPAC, was our Keynote speaker; GEN Hokanson, Chief, National Guard Bureau, was a guest speaker; and LTG Bernabe, CG, III Corps, was our Capstone speaker among seven other general officer speakers and panelists. Videos of this event can be found here and on the Strategic Landpower Symposium website.

Last year, we received 26 papers from the military academic community, including several submissions from foreign allied and partner officers and were able to select eight for publication through Marine Corps University Press. These selected papers are in the final stages of publication and will be available at the 2024 Strategic Landpower Symposium.

Check out the Call for Papers flyer for next year’s symposium, providing the event’s themes, proposed abstract submission guidelines/suspense, and paper submission guidelines/ suspense.  For additional information about the Symposium, click here.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory and listeners to The Convergence podcast know that our Pacing Threat — China — is feverishly modernizing its People’s Liberation Army (PLA).  In addressing the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, 2022, China’s President Xi Jinping stated that quickly elevating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to a world-class army is a strategic requirement, and that China would adhere to the integrated development of the PLA through the concept of “three-izations” (三化) — mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization — the latter being China’s concept for integrating Artificial Intelligence’s (AI’s) machine speed and processing power to military planning, operational command, and decision support.  Xi further stated that these three-izations were to be pursued simultaneously and in parallel.

Consequently, it behooves us to better understand how, in the words of Dr. James Mancillas, “AI will disrupt our current military decision cycles… [and] shape the future of AI enabled military operations.”  That said, understanding the limits imposed by our adversaries’ embrace of AI is just as important as appreciating how AI can help sustain and enhance our Warfighters’ overmatch — possibly allowing us to exploit the constraints wrought by an adversary’s overreliance on AI to our advantage.

Today’s episode of The Convergence podcast is the second in our The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College series, featuring Dr. Billy Barry discussing AI study technology, its impact within the Army War College, and how he sees it evolving in the future — Read on!]

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Dr. Billy Barry is a Professor of Emerging Technology and Principal Strategist of the Artificial Intelligence/Intelligence Augmentation (AI/IA) Program (GovCon) for the Center for Strategic Leadership at the United States Army War College. Before working at the Army War College, Dr. Barry was a visiting professor of Philosophy and Just War Theory at the United States Military Academy at West Point.  A pioneer in Human-AI/IA teams, he is the first to introduce AI-powered intelligent augmentation androids, robots, digital virtual beings, and strategic advisors as teaching and learning partners in civilian university and Professional Military Education classrooms. A sought-after TEDx and international keynote speaker, Dr. Barry’s influence extends to Fortune 500 companies and global leadership symposiums and conferences. His current research interest centers on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, driving the conversation on ethical technology interactions. His contributions to academia and industry establish him as a leading authority on the future of human relationships with emerging technology.   

Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Billy Barry to discuss AI study technology, its impact within the Army War College’s curriculum at Carlisle, Pennsylvania, and how he sees it evolving in the future to enhance Professional Military Education (PME) across the Army’s Learning Enterprise.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• Human involvement is our advantage.Completely automated decision-making presents a number of inherent problems – narrow AI technology is not meant to replace human thought, but rather augment it. Dr. Barry explores this principle through what he calls an AI-powered cognitive asset that partners an intelligence augmentation (IA) system with a human student. 

• We tend to think about artificial intelligence as a tool, but  Barry sees AI as a partner — since 2017, he’s never taught a class without an IA/AI entity co-teaching with him.The students are free to ask the entity questions independent of Dr. Barry’s instruction, and Dr. Barry can ask the entity for help on subjects with which he is less familiar. 

• Barry’s research originated as a project to capture institutional knowledge from contemporary Senior Military Leaders. By interacting with the system, a digital “thought twin” can be created that is a reasonable facsimile of the original individual.It will represent their thoughts and expertise and can interact with users, students, and educators to preserve and replicate institutional knowledge that would otherwise perish with the retirement and subsequent demise of these Leaders.

• Recently, the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) within the DoD created Task Force Lima to analyze and integrate generative AI tools such as large language models (LLMs) across the DoD.This is the first step in combining technical expertise and novel use cases to help build better, integrated capability across the DoD as opposed to duplicative, disjoined, and redundant  efforts across the Services. 

• AI and LLMs are democratized technologies, available to allies and adversaries alike. While we will use IA/AI assets as decision advisors, other autocratic countries, like China, may require strict adherence to guidance received from these automated systems, relying less on the human who can add context and nuance and instead taking the computer’s answer as a verbatim certainty. Understanding this could enable our Warfighters to “game” our adversaries’ automated OODA loop, allowing us to spoof or “poison” the data flowing into their sensors’ feeds and thus shape their responses to our tactical, operational, and strategic advantage.

• Education is now a national security issue.Automation within education will have a positive impact on many administrative tasks and can produce enough quality material to pass most classes. Educators will now have to adapt to ensure their students’ coursework contains enough distinction and nuance to perplex AI systems, but not human students.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 14 September 2023, featuring our discussion with Loran Ambs, Chief Technology Officer for Ideal Innovations, Inc., about his company’s research in measuring the distinctive characteristics of innate talent, identifying potential high performers, and how the Army can harness AI/ML to screen and match these high performers with specialty vocations (e.g., pilots, special operators, and other select duty positions).

If you enjoyed this post, check out the China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide,  and more!

… and explore the following related Army Mad Scientist content:

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

“Intelligentization” and a Chinese Vision of Future War

How China Fights and associated podcast, with seven world-class SMEs

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

One Brain Chip, Please! Neuro-AI with two of the Maddest Scientists and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton

Where Creativity Meets Combat: Exploring the USC ICT and associated podcast, with Dr. Keith Brawner and Dr. Bill Swartout

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

Arsenal of the Mind presentation by proclaimed Mad Scientist Juliane Gallina, Director, Cognitive Solutions for National Security (North America) IBM WATSON, at the Mad Scientist Robotics, AI, and Autonomy — Visioning Multi-Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, hosted by Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta Georgia, 7-8 March 2017

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

[Editor’s Note:  Sunday morning’s tropical idyll was shattered as the adversary’s surprise attack caught our naval, ground, and air forces completely unprepared. An hour and a half later, more than 2,400 U.S. Service members and civilians had been killed, with almost another 1,200 wounded. Despite three missed tactical warnings that could have alerted our local defenses of the impending attack (perhaps reducing its effectiveness), senior Army and Navy leaders on-site remained blithely unaware until the first wave of attackers struck their primary targets — as were the Nation’s political and military leadership in Washington, DC, when they received news of the catastrophic attack. Collectively, we had been lulled by perhaps the most insidious of cognitive biases — mirror imaging — believing that the Japanese Empire wanted to avoid war with the U.S. at all costs because of our perceived military superiority.

“Mirror imaging occurs when we subscribe our beliefs or ideas to other competitors. A corollary to this mirror imaging idea is the concept of railroading where we assume that other competitors, for example, are developing technology at similar pace and along the same track that we are. Mirror imaging places a premium on the notion that our way is the only way – discounting history and organizational, strategic, geographic, and cultural differences – as well as dismissing ideas that others might have.” As Dr. Nick Marsella stated so eloquently, “Thinking about the future is hard work, requiring us to continually examine the rigor associated with these efforts and avoiding the cognitive biases inherent in our future’s work. ”

Gaming is an invaluable tool for adding rigor to our exploration of Operational Environment possibilities – it also helps us to identify and avoid our cognitive biases. Frequent contributor LTC Nathan Colvin recently used game theory to explore the dynamics affecting three principal “actors” – the transnational “liberal order” (i.e., the West), the diffuse aggregate needs of the Russian people (a society of individuals), and the individual needs of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin himself (as an autocratic leader) — to clinically explain the rationale underlying the superficially irrational invasion of Ukraine. Today’s post features highlights from our latest episode of The Convergence podcast with LTC Nathan  Colvin discussing game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision-making processes — Read on!]

LTC Nathan Colvin is currently an Army War College Fellow at the College of William and Mary. He holds a Graduate Certificate in Modeling and Simulations from Old Dominion University, where he is also completing his Ph.D. in International Studies as an I/ITSEC Leonard P. Gollobin Scholar. He earned masters’ degrees in Aeronautics and Space Studies (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University), Administration (Central Michigan University), and Military Theater Operations (School of Advanced Military Studies). He is an Army Strategist and former Aviator with deployments to Eastern Europe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Nathan Colvin to discuss game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision-making processes. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• We tend to view rationality through the lens of our own value set – mirror imaging– which can often lead to unintended bias when viewing decision-making. If rationality is simply thought of as a social construct, where each culture has a different “good” and “bad,” it is possible to understand actions as rational in a logical sense,even though the actor and observer may not hold the same value set.
• Analyzing a situation using a two-state model is outdated and does not consider the interests and values of other actors, such as leaders and domestic audiences, that influence decision-making. LTC Colvin developed athree-player game theory model that separates Vladimir Putin from the Russian state, highlighting Putin’s personal value set that does not necessarily align with the state’s.
  
  
• In social science, mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative data) is the most powerful research approach. Quantifiable data, when it exists, is useful — however, human nature is extremely hard to quantify and requires the use of other types of logic, such as the Likert Scale, to capture an actor’s response to their environment.
  
  
• The game theory model is not meant to be predictivebut helps produce a roadmap that illuminates possible futures. It is more of a sense-making orientation that acts as a framework to facilitate thinking through a problem and describing actions that would typically seem irrational.
  
  
• In addition to acknowledging the pitfalls of mirror imaging, other important tools for a Red Team perspective include critical thinking, cultural awareness and empathy, problem reframing, stake-holder mapping(specifically network connections), the five why’s, and the Delphi technique (comparing multiple SMEs’ opinions to find variations).

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 31 August 2023 when we’ll feature part two of our interview exploring the AI Study Buddy at the Army War College with creator Dr. Billy Barry —  discussing AI study technology, its impact within the Army War College, and how he sees it evolving in the future.

If you enjoyed this post, read LTC Nathan Colvin’s recent posts Your Adversary is Rational, Just Not the Way You Want Them to Be and  What Happens If Great Powers Don’t Fight Great Wars?

… explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment and our how our adversaries fight.  If you have a Common Access Card, you’ll be especially interested in our weekly Russia-Ukraine Conflict Running Estimates, capturing what we are learning about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P — access them all here…

… and check out the following related Mad Scientist:

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

On Surprise Attacks Below the “Bolt from the Blue” Threshold by Lesley Kucharski

Why the Next “Cuban Missile Crisis” Might Not End Well: Cyberwar and Nuclear Crisis Management by Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala

Some Thoughts on Futures Work (Part I) by Dr. Nick Marsella

Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast

Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

Gamers Building the Future Force  and associated podcast, with Capt Zach Baumann, Capt Oliver Parsons, and MSgt Michael Sullivan

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

>>>>REMINDER:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note: In recent weeks, Mad Scientist Laboratory has featured a number of podcasts and associated blog posts exploring the democratization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its potential ramifications for Warfighters and the Operational Environment (OE). From generating better proposals from a broader array of defense contractors, exploring the future of warfare and OE trends, the convergence of neuroscience and AI, and the future of learning through emerging technologies — large language models (e.g., Open AI‘s ChatGPT) can augment how we learn, work, create, and — most importantly to the U.S. Army — compete and fight.
Imagine a not-too-distant future when all of our Military Leaders (from platoon to echelons above corps) are able to harness the comprehensive thoughts and insights of the world’s military theorists and tacticians, from antiquity to the present, via a personal AI digital assistant — or as proclaimed Mad Scientist Juliane Gallina so eloquently stated — a “Patton in the Pocket.” Human-machine teaming has the potential to enable future Commanders to focus on the battle at hand with coup d’œil, or the “stroke of an eye,” maintaining situational awareness and processing inputs, generating potential courses of action, and down selecting the best way ahead — tailored to specific mission objectives and conditions at the bleeding edge of the fight — all at machine speed. Sustained Soldier overmatch indeed!

The application of Soldier-enhancing human-machine teaming isn’t limited to tactical applications, however. In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we interview LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC, about his experience in applying human-machine teaming to support Professional Military Education (PME), leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust in AI applications — Enjoy!]

LtCol Joe Buffamante is a native of Great Valley, New York, and graduated from Miami (Ohio) University, receiving his commission in the United States Marine Corps in May 2003. Upon completion of The Basic School, he was designated an Armor Officer and graduated from the Armor Officer Basic Course in May 2004. He has commanded USMC units in combat tours to both Iraq and Afghanistan, and has served as a maneuver and fire support team instructor at 29 Palms, California. LtCol Buffamante assumed the duties as Chief of Readiness for Joint Task Force Civil Support (JTF-CS), Ft. Eustis, Virginia, in 2014, ultimately serving as the training chief for current operations where he was responsible for training all Joint Operations Center personnel. Following completion of this Joint assignment, LtCol Buffamante attended the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, earning a Master’s Degree in Defense and Strategic Studies. He also attended the Maritime Advanced Warfighting School (MAWS) and received the additional MOS of 0505 (MAGTF Planner). LtCol Buffamante is currently a student at the United States Army War College (AWC) in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with LtCol Buffamante to discuss his experience in applying human-machine teaming to support PME, leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust in AI applications. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• As a student at the AWC, LtCol Buffamante, along with Dr. Billy Barry, used a large language model as a learning support tool to explore the effectiveness of human-machine teaming research, specifically the effectiveness of the system itself and in collaboration with a human vice a human alone.

• LtCol Buffamante employed the system to assist in answering research questions related to his coursework. He coordinated with his professors to hand in three products for each assignment – AI produced, AI and human produced, and human produced – without his professors knowing who the author was.

• The AI-Human team produced the highest quality products — better than AI or human alone — and received the best grades from AWC professors. This further supports the centaur theory that AI alone may not be as transformative as we think and the need for a human agent to steer the system and add context is still apparent.

• There were some drawbacks to AI-Human teaming noted by LtCol Buffamante:

• In its current state, the large language model used is not accessible remotely. If students want to use it, they must be physically in the room with the system.

• Trust is still an issue. Users are unsure where the system gets its information, and are therefore less trusting of the answers provided.

• The machine relies on a corpus of pre-screened information and cannot listen to or follow an active conversation. Relying solely on historical data precludes it from providing decision support in certain time-sensitive or dynamic environments.

• The future of this technology will be tailorable, customizable, and based on a dynamic corpus of data. The system could also be tailored to respond to queries from the perspective of a U.S. Army G3 or a PLA G3. Specialization, vice generality is where these systems add value to existing Army processes and functions.
 
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 17 August 2023, featuring our discussion with frequent guest blogger LTC Nathan Colvin on game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision making processes.

"We found that people systematically were more willing to reveal confidential or sensitive information to a virtual human than to a real person"

[Editor’s Note: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging game-changer technology for our Warfighters — as Dr. James Mancillas espoused in a previous post, “AI systems offer the potential to continue maximizing the advantages of information superiority, while overcoming limits in human cognitive abilities.” Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work stated at the Mad Scientist Disruption and the Operational Environment Conference, co-sponsored by The University of Texas at Austin in 2019, that this is an “Own the Night Moment for the United States Army” — the Army (and TRADOC) must embrace and rapidly incorporate AI across the force.

One such AI application is enhancing Army learning and training. The Army will not only have to incorporate AI as a subject in its Professional Military Education (PME) — ensuring our Soldiers and Leaders have the requisite AI literacy — it has the opportunity to utilize AI in augmenting Field Training Exercises, Home Station Training, and Combat Training Center rotations to expose and prepare our Warfighters for the second and third order effects resulting from the compressed battle rhythms wrought by AI.

In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we interview Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) — a DoD-sponsored University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) focused on immersive technology, simulation, human performance, computer graphics, AI, and narrative — about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies. Enjoy!]

Dr. Keith Brawner is the Program Manager of the Institute for Creative Technologies University Affiliated Research Center (ICT UARC) for the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, as managed by the U.S. Army DEVCOM Soldier Center, where he is also the lead for AI initiatives. He is a research leader in intelligent tutoring systems with over 100 publications in research/ application of simulation and training technologies.

While he manages the ICT at the University of Southern California, he works at the SFC Paul Ray Smith Simulation and Training Technology facility in Orlando, Florida. He has worked on, or contributed to, systems which train land navigation, marksmanship, hovercraft operation, destroyer decision making, physics, UAV route planning, calling for indirect fires, submarine harbor navigation, sonar system operation, helicopter flight, counterinsurgency, and many others. His current research focus is on enhancing simulations, the realism within simulations, the behaviors of simulated characters, and the creation of human behavior change. He earned a BS in Electrical Engineering from the University of Central Florida. He earned an MS and Ph.D in Computer Engineering while working full-time for the Navy (Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division) and Army (Army Research Laboratory), respectively. He is the recipient of the National Training and Simulation Association Governors award (2nd highest honor) and the UCF Alumni 30 under 30 award.

Dr. William Swartout is a research professor in the Computer Science Department at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and Chief Technology Officer at the USC Institute for Creative Technologies, providing overall direction to the institute’s research. Dr. Swartout was also recently named Co-Director of USC’s Center for Generative AI and Society. In 2009, he received the Robert Engelmore Award from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) for seminal contributions to knowledge-based systems and explanation, groundbreaking research on virtual human technologies and their applications, and outstanding service to the AI community.

Dr. Swartout is a Fellow of the AAAI, has served on their Board of Councilors, and is past chair of the Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence (SIGART) of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). He has served as a member of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, the Board on Army Science and Technology of the National Academies, and the JFCOM Transformation Advisory Group. Prior to helping found the ICT in 1999, he was the Director of the Intelligent Systems Division at the USC Information Sciences Institute. Dr. Swartout received his Ph.D and MS in Computer Science from MIT and his bachelor’s degree from Stanford University. He has been involved in cutting edge research and development of AI systems throughout his career.

In this latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) to talk about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• The Institute for Creative Technologies within the University of Southern California was formed in 1999 as the DoD took notice of significant advancements in video game technology. The simulations from the commercial video game industry were outpacing those developed by the military and doing so at a lower price point. ICT was established to create a closer relationship between the DoD and the entertainment industry to leverage those tools, ideas, creativity, and resources.

• The Center for Generative AI and Society is a newly formed research organization within USC that endeavors to explore the impact that generative AI and related fields have on society and how we can best use these emerging technologies to advance humanity. Dr. Swartout’s research focuses on generative AI and education – viewing this technology as a tool similar to the advent of the calculator. Education in the future will use generative AI for research and writing, with students’ evaluations being based on the entire process vice solely their end product.

• AI is widely viewed as one of the things that will help us sustain overmatch over our near peer adversaries, but most people in the general workforce know very little about it. There is a very real need for increased AI literacy not only for AI programmers but for those who are going to be managing AI systems.

• Research at ICT has shown that people respond to virtual humans in much the same way that they respond to real people but there are some key differences. People felt safer and more comfortable revealing sensitive information to a virtual human.

• Training, education, and Leader development in the military will have to adapt. The key skills taught will remain enduring, however the method of consumption, instruction, and delivery will continue to change, as it has across the ages — from clay tablets, to books, to online videos. Future PME may consist of computer-generated customized learning paths tested on simulated students with on-demand learning content.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 July 2023, when we’ll interview LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC, about human-machine teaming, leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust with your personal AI assistant.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following content:

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025:  A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

>>>>REMINDER:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor's Note:  Crowdsourcing and Storytelling are two of Army Mad Scientist's most effective tools in exploring future possibilities regarding the Operational Environment. Crowdsourcing helps us harvest ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping us to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Storytelling — creative fictional writing and narrative building — helps us to explore how concepts, technologies, and other capabilities could be employed and operationalized. Together, they help us to effectively source, then impart knowledge about future possibilities — creating a network of people with a shared understanding of potential futures.
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with John "Grant" Rafter to discuss the Air Force Futures’ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest (see more about this in the Announcement at the bottom of today’s post) — Read on!]


[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.] 

John "Grant" Rafter is the Branch Chief for Futures and Foresight in Air Force Futures. He also has experience with the U.S. Secret Service, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy as the Regional Director for Maghreb, and with the UN Development Programme in Myanmar.  Mr. Rafter has a B.A. in English from Dartmouth College, a J.D. from the University of Washington School of Law, and an M.P.P. from the Harvard Kennedy School focusing on Management, Leadership, and Decision-Making in International Organizations.  He is finalizing an additional master’s degree with a focus on China.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with John "Grant" Rafter to discuss the Air Force Futures‘ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040 (aka AFGFR), and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — seeking to crowdsource engaging, plot-driven stories that illustrate a scenario from one of the many futures described in the AFGFR.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

As the world becomes more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) – especially post-COVID – the demand for foresight increases. Foresight excels in a VUCA environment as linear projections become less certain and timelines increase. Foresight helps organizations like the Joint Force obviate and avoid strategic surprise.
  
The AFGFR explores the seven Joint Functions for warfighting — command and control, information, intelligence, fires, movement and maneuver, protection, and sustainment — through four alternative futures:  Growth, Transformational, Constrained, and Collapsed. The AFGFR examined these competing Operational Environments and how the trends and forces within each impacted mission sets for the Air Force, as well as the DoD at large.

The Joint Functions for warfighting are cross cutting (across not only specific military branches, but the entire Joint Force), proving to be the best lens for utility and relevance. Using modified foresight methodologies, AF Futures was able to crowdsource and condense the expertise from hundreds of foresight practitioners – a diverse group from across Government agencies, academia, and Allied and Partner nations – into 32 pages of analysis. 

The AFGFR and associated four worlds help planners to assess how well their plan, team, or organization functions (or not) in any of the proposed futures. They can then identify weaknesses or opportunities in their concepts and refine as they go. 

The report identified six key trends overall, with the scope, scale, and speed of computing; the myth of sanctuary due to cyber, bio, and space; and economic interconnectedness – globalization and deglobalization – as the most impactful.
  
The future exists in multiple stages at once. Identifying the edge of potential futures helps the Force know the left and right bounds and prepare for both sides of the extremes. If we are proactive, we can shape the future we want to see.
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 13 July 2023, when we’ll talk with we talk with Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) — a DoD-sponsored University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) focused on immersive technology, simulation, human performance, computer graphics, artificial intelligence and narrative — about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following content:
China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2's Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, How China Fights and associated podcast, and more!

Russia Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics, our How Russia Fights 2.0 post and associated podcast , and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document
Four Models of the Post-COVID World
The Future Operational Environment: The Four Worlds of 2035-2050

Task Force Wolf, Task Force Wolf, Redux and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez

Alternate Futures 2050: A Collection of Fictional Wartime Vignettes, by LTC Steve Speece

The Battle of Rioni River Valley: A Story of Future Warfare in 2030, by MAJ James P. Micciche

Kryptós, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Katherine Hathaway

Fifth Generation Combat: SubTerranean Ops in Singapore, by the Radio Research Group

Weaponized Information: One Possible Vignette and Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes

Two Vignettes: How Might Combat Operations be Different under the Information Joint Function? by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Christopher Paul

Insights from Army Mad Scientist’s Back to the Future Conference

Announcement:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Mad Scientist is an Army initiative and Community of Action that continually explores the Operational Environment and the changing character of warfare. We connect the intellect of the Nation to the Army and serve as an on-ramp for academia, industry, and other parts of the Government to share their ideas and innovations. Our latest episode of The Convergence podcast features "rock star" proclaimed Mad Scientists — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — discussing the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development, relative to our competitors and adversaries — Enjoy!] 

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC.  Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.

Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. 

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community,  and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government. 

Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart,  The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council, U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services. 

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development relative to our competitors and adversaries.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• The brain sciences are highly dependent on interaction with other sciences and disciplines– social sciences, law, humanities, etc. – as well as ethics and philosophy. We need to understand that an “asymmetry in ethics” exists, where what is prohibited by one society, may be permitted and pursued by others.

• You can’t do effective brain science without convergence and breaking down silos. It’s the convergence that enables and force multiplies the brain sciencesto be used in national security, intelligence, and defense milieu.

• We need to be looking at bolder, moonshot ideas using the AI and Neuro Science communities. The first time these communities came together, during the Synapse project through DARPA, neural nets were created.

• You cannot do neurocognitive science and actualize these ideas into reality without big dataand machine learning. These allow you to take capabilities on a variety of scales and integrate them to create systems of systems to attain functional structural holism.

• ChatGPTand mapping the human genome are just the beginning. We need to continue to innovate in this space to keep pace with our adversaries and competitors to help ensure peaceful global security.

• Drs. Giordano and Canton believe we may be behind our competitors and adversariesin various Neuro-AI areas, and believe the best way to boost our innovation is to reach out to the collective intellect of the Nation to come together and solve this problem in a unified way. They are actively encouraging listeners to reach out to them and start working on solutions!

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 29, 2023, when we’ll talk with John “Grant” Rafter about Air Force Futures‘ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — seeking to crowdsource engaging, plot-driven stories that illustrate a scenario from one of the many futures described in the AFGFR.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related posts:

Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DOD and its associated report from the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) Chemical Biological Center 

Universal Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Master Sergeant Greg A. McGowan 

China’s Brain Trust: Will the U.S. Have the Nerve to Compete? by Dr. James Giordano, as well as his Neuroscience, Neurotechnology, and the Future of War and Neuroscience and the Weapons of War podcasts, hosted by our colleagues at the Modern Warfare Institute 

Linking Brains to Machines, and Use of Neurotechnology to the Cultural and Ethical Perspectives of the Current Global Stage and Designer Genes: Made in China? by Dr. James Giordano and Joseph DeFranco  

Battle of the Brain 

Connected Warfare by COL James K. Greer (USA-Ret.) 

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast, with Chatty Cathy, an instance of ChatGPT by OpenAI 

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari 

Ethics, Morals, and Legal Implications; Ethical Dilemmas of Future Warfare; and The Ethics and the Future of War panel discussion, facilitated by LTG Jim Dubik (USA-Ret.) 

… watch proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Alexander Kott‘s presentation The Network is the Robot, presented at the Mad Scientist Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, & Autonomy: Visioning Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, 8-9 March 2017, in Atlanta, Georgia. 

… and see proclaimed Mad Scientist Hank Greely‘s presentation on Future Legal and Ethical Implications of Bio Technology from the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference, at SRI International, 8-9 March 2018 in Menlo Park, California. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

In today’s post and podcast, we feature the winning submission from our Back to the Future Writing Contest — Task Force Wolf — as a short audiobook and then interview its author — proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez — about his inspiration for the story, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and why we should be experimenting with these commercially-available capabilities — Enjoy!]

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LTC Daniel Gomez currently serves in the U.S. Army Reserve as an Instructor of Innovation and Creativity at Joint Special Operations University, United States Special Operations Command. During his twenty years in service, LTC Gomez served two combat tours in Iraq, two Special Operations deployments to the Pacific Theater, and five years as an instructor, scenario designer, and course manager at the United States Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School. LTC Gomez is the CEO of First Person Xperience LLC, an education and training company focused on teaching Creativity, Adaptability, and Human Dynamics to National Defense Professionals.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist asks proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez about his inspiration for his winning submission Task Force Wolf, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and why we should be experimenting with these commercially-available capabilities.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• In LTC Gomez’s story, JTF Wolf is designed to track and interrupt illicit operations in Eurasia, specifically Turkey and its northern neighbors. His re-imagined geo-political structure describes the New Soviet Union and T’China(Taiwan re-joined with mainland China) as global powers using irregular and liminal warfare, regionally and internationally.

• Non-state actorshave employed mobile video games, ubiquitous connectivity, and cryptocurrency to conduct multi-domain, synchronized operations across multiple geospatial regions while operating as independent and self-sustained, but distributed, joint teams. Built-in communications software was leveraged for real-time translation of over 100 different languages.
  
  
• These teams were able to access home camera video feeds and manipulate them with deepfakes(Deep-Snapping) and access car toll passes to search for less than reputable locations for blackmail (Spot-Blowing) to charge victims monthly fees to support their illicit business. They identified and exploited extremely vulnerable persons (Husking) to activate burner satellite phones that ran one-time use scripts to issue blackmail statements and then received payment in cryptocurrency that was washed in a cash-out marketplace.

• LTC Gomez believes that many technologies, their convergences, and associated Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) are being ignored or neglected by the defense community.  He wrote Task Force Wolf to highlight how these new technologies could be converged and implemented in unforeseen ways, affecting global security.
  
  
• LTC Gomez highlighted several hypothetical vulnerabilities to unarmed operators in permissive or semi-permissive environments who aren’t being targeted for kinetic effects, but are being attacked in other ways that significantly degrade their ability to conduct operations or deny them altogether.

• Many of the TTPs featured in the story were inspired by real capabilities from current video games and technology used by the author.They reflect potential ways current militaries could operate or wish to operate (real-time communications and translation, distributed teams across varying time zones, multi-domain operations) via extant capabilities from commercial entities, outside of conventional military acquisition supply chains.

• LTC Gomez makes the convincing case for BLUFOR teams experimenting with non-DoD technologies to explore their potential integration into military practice, fail in a safe environment, and exploit the commercial sector’s rapid and responsive development and acquisition cycles.
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 15, 2023, when we’ll talk with the Mad Scientist James Gang — Dr. James Giordano
and Dr. James Canton — two of our finest proclaimed Mad Scientists addressing the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development relative to our competitors/adversaries.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Virtual Nations: An Emerging Supranational Cyber Trend, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy

Gaming Information Dominance and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling

What the Joint Force can learn from K-Pop “Stans” by Matthew Ader

Extremism on the Horizon: The Challenges of VEO Innovation, by Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin

Hybrid Threats and Liminal Warfare and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. David Kilcullen

The Classified Mind – The Cyber Pearl Harbor of 2034, by proclaimed Mad Scientist  Dr. Jan Kallberg

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated content and videos 

In It to Win It: Competition, Crisis, & Conflict

Is Ours a Nation at War? U.S. National Security in an Evolved — and Evolving — Operational Environment and the comprehensive publication from which it was excerpted — Is Ours a Nation at War? Proceedings for the TRADOC G-2 2021 “Role of America’s Army in National Defense, 2021-2030” Campaign of Learning, published by our colleagues at the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

“The Convergence of AI, robotics, and cyber-warfare could create new and highly complex military capabilities such as autonomous weapons systems that can make decisions in real time” — ChatGPT

[Editor’s Note:  As described in the previous episode of The Convergence podcast, large language models like ChatGPT — democratizing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) — will potentially revolutionize (and disrupt!) how people around the globe access, process, and generate information from the wealth of online data — per TechCrunch, “estimated at 97 zettabytes (10²¹ bytes) created or replicated in 2022 alone!  To put that number into perspective, to store 97 zettabytes on 1 terabyte hard disks, you’d have to stack the disks 27 million times—equal to roughly 15 round trips between the Earth and the Moon.”  Big Data indeed!  As the Internet transformed our lives some three decades ago, allowing us to harness and access this mass of online information, so too will democratized AI transform and augment how we learn, work, create, and — most importantly to the U.S. Army — compete and fight… and not just in the Cyber Domain!

Our adversaries understand the game-changing power of AI.  President Vladimir Putin virtually addressed over one million Russian school children and teachers at 16,000 schools on September 1, 2017, stating,  “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind.  It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict.  Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”  Just as ominously, in addressing the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, 2022, China’s President Xi Jinping stated that quickly elevating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to a world-class army is a strategic requirement, and that China would adhere to the integrated development of the PLA through the concept of “three-izations” (三化) — mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization — the latter being China’s concept for integrating AI’s machine speed and processing power to military planning, operational command, and decision support.  Xi further stated that these three-izations are not to be achieved in stages but are to be pursued simultaneously and in parallel.  

Recognizing that the AI Age is now upon us, the latest episode of The Convergence podcast features our interview with Chatty Cathy, an instance of ChatGPT by OpenAI, discussing the future of warfare, “her” thoughts on technology trends, and her responses to several questions from our Mad Scientist Community of Action — Read on!]

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OpenAI‘s ChatGPT is a large language model that is trained to follow an instruction in a text prompt and provide a detailed response.  It was trained using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), using supervised fine-tuning:  human AI trainers provided conversations in which they played both sides—the user and an AI assistant. OpenAI gave the trainers access to model-written suggestions to help them compose their responses. OpenAI mixed this new dialogue dataset with the InstructGPT dataset, which was transformed into a dialogue format. 

Army Mad Scientist’s instance of ChatGPT was christened Chatty Cathy.  When asked for a self-portrait, Chatty Cathy responded, “As an AI language model, I am an abstract entity that exists in the digital realm. While I don’t have a physical form, an artistic interpretation of myself could be depicted as a glowing orb or a network of interconnected nodes and circuits, representing the flow of information and knowledge. This visual representation could incorporate elements of technology, such as circuit patterns or binary code, to symbolize the computational nature of my existence. However, it’s important to note that this is merely a creative interpretation, as my true nature as an AI is purely textual and conceptual.” This deprecating self-description belies the fact that ChatGPT has been the fastest growing consumer product in history.

In the latest episode of The Convergence, Army Mad Scientist asks Chatty Cathy about the future of warfare, “her” thoughts on technology trends, and her responses to several questions from our Mad Scientist Community of Action.  We submitted our queries via text input and then fed her text responses into LOVO‘s AI Voice Generator and Text to Speech function to yield her curious, not-quite Received Pronunciation British accent.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• ChatGPT 3.5 is a large language model created by OpenAI and designed to simulate human-like language abilities.The system is trained on a vast corpus of text data which includes books, articles, and webpages and allows the AI to answer in coherent and human-like text responses.  The system allows for continuous conversation, so the user can reference previous answers, or ask follow-up questions, and ChatGPT will stay engaged and follow along.

• ChatGPT is at its best when it synthesizes large amounts of dataon complex subjects, summarizes important ideas, and communicates them in plain and understandable language.
• Another strength lies in the speed in which it can deliver a vast amount of information. If prompted to write an article or proposal, it can often return a usable solution in a matter of seconds, requiring the user to only polish it into a finished product. This can save an exceptional amount of time for writers, editors, and creators.

• Chatty Cathy’s observations on the future of warfare and the Operational Environment include:
  • The battlefield of 2050 will be highly digitized, networked, and unpredictable. Soldiers will have to rely heavily on AI, unmanned systems, and robotics. They will need to have a broad range of skills and competencies to succeed. The proliferation of sensors, data analytics, and other advanced technologies will likely provide Soldiers unprecedented situational awareness and decision-making capability.
  • Urban environments will become increasingly important as larger swaths of the global population flock to cities.This presents challenges for Soldiers who will have to be highly adaptable and capable of operating in complex terrain.
  • Cyber warfare and information operations will also likely be critical components of any future conflict, and as artificial intelligence continues to evolve and become more sophisticated, it is likely to play a central role. Cyber-attacks are becoming increasingly common and sophisticated, and the ability to launch successful attacks will become an important factor in future warfare.
• However, on broader and more open-ended inquiries, ChatGPT can be non-committal and over-general in its responses. It’s unable to take a firm stance on many military-themed topics and cites the difficulty inherent in answering questions about the future.It can often be repetitive to a fault when prefacing its responses with caveats.

• Navigating the conversation requires critical thinking and a fair amount of due diligence on the part of the user.ChatGPT can confidently deliver an incorrect response to a question, thus putting the onus on the user to verify the information received.

• A large language model like ChatGPT tailored to a certain business, sector, or company (e.g., the U.S. Army)could be trained on a specific data set and used to create policy, guidance, assessments, or even doctrine.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 1, 2023, when we feature the winning submission from our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  writing contest — Task Force Wolf — as an audiobook and then interview its author, proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez, about his inspiration for the story, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and his views on the National Security Community’s response to these emerging threats.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast with LTC Robert Solano

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note: Large language models like ChatGPT — democratizing the power of artificial intelligence — have rocked industry and academia with their potential to revolutionize how humans process vast quantities of information and generate content. Our Federal Government, including the Department of Defense and its

constituent Services, will similarly be transformed as myriad processes begin to harness this capability to augment traditionally human endeavors. But this sea change will require work force flexibility and a willingness to learn and adapt to new ways of accomplishing mission requirements. Changing culture is hard…

Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, featuring LTC Robert Solano, Commander of the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) at Boeing in Mesa, Arizona, discussing what DCMA does, how language models like ChatGPT can help the Army and the Nation’s industrial base work together, and some of the challenges and barriers these language models may face when it comes to wide-spread adoption in the Department of Defense (DoD) — Enjoy!]

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LTC Robert Solano is an accomplished Army officer and the Commander of the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) at Boeing in Mesa, Arizona. With 19 years of experience under his belt, LTC Solano has a passion for delivering quality aircraft and parts to support Warfighters while making a difference in the acquisition community. As a senior Army Aviator and Acquisition Corps officer with multiple combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, LTC Solano has honed his skills in organizational leadership, program management, and government contracting. As an engineer, he is skilled in artificial intelligence, augmented reality, aviation systems, and advanced weapons systems development. His impressive career has taken him to work at the Army Artificial Intelligence Integration Center, Palantir

Technologies, U.S. Special Operations Command, and other procurement and aviation units. LTC Solano holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point, a Master’s Degree in Aerospace Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and a Master’s Certificate in Aviation Doctoral Studies (ABD) from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

In today’s podcast, LTC Solano discusses what DCMA does, how language models like ChatGPT can help the Army and the Nation’s industrial base work together, and some of the challenges and barriers these language models may face when it comes to wide- spread adoption in the DoD. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

The Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) has over 11,000 personnel throughout the

world. These personnel are on the factory floors, looking over the shoulders of the contractors who are designing and manufacturing materiel for the warfighter. They ensure end items are built to standard, at cost, and delivered on time.

ChatGPT, and other large language models, are artificial intelligence (AI) programs that are fed a large body of data (books, Tweets, articles, etc.) from which they can derive meaning and draw conclusions.

For example, you can ask ChatGPT, “Why is the sky blue?” and it will respond

with the science behind light refracting through the atmosphere. These programs are so advanced that you can even follow up your original question by asking the system to elaborate in simpler terms. The system will remember what it told you and use simpler language and more illustrative analogies to further explain its responses.

Large language models can be used to craft arguments for articles, blog posts, academic papers, and even the questions for this podcast. They are much more than just a data aggregator, as they are able to summarize important points; interpret policy, doctrine, or legal terminology; create original proposals; and communicate clearly with proper formatting, grammar, and tone.

Using large language models can significantly increase productivity for a variety of jobs, skillsets, and Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs). ChatGPT, for example, can ease the burden for analysts, writers, contracting officers, and others by quickly completing certain tasks, freeing up the  individual to do things that humans do best. 

These systems are user-friendly consumer products that don’t require any technical

skill to operate (no special coding, programming, or AI knowledge is needed). Their interface responds to natural language inputs and replies in plain and understandable text. ChatGPT has been the fastest growing consumer product in history.

Contracting is a vital component of acquisition, logistics, and support services for the Army. The contracting process involves industry responding to government requests for proposals, crafting submissions to specific performance work statement language, and competitive proposal evaluations. Using large language models could exponentially improve productivity for small businesses trying to work with the government who don’t have the same resources that larger defense contractors do — lowering the barrier for entry, leveling the playing field, and allowing more non-traditional vendors to compete.

However, this may lead to an “arms race” where companies with the best large language model or AI system are marginalizing the competition and small businesses are once again facing a substantial barrier instead of the Government getting the best value. 

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 18 May 2023 where we interview “Chatty Cathy” (an instantiation of ChatGPT) about the future of warfare, how our adversaries are planning to compete and win in the operational environment, and how emergent technologies could converge to provide new capabilities!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Crossing the Valley of Death for Innovation and associated podcast, with Trish Martinelli and David Schiff

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025: A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

Algorithms of Armageddon and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the

U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

General Robert Brown (USA-Ret.) is an experienced commander who has led at every level, from platoon through Army Service Component Command. Serving as Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific, General Brown led the Army’s largest service component command responsible for 106,000 Soldiers across the Indo-Pacific Region before his September 2019 retirement.

General Brown is a 1981 graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, where he was commissioned as an Infantry Second Lieutenant. His assignments took him across the globe including deployments in support of Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, Operation Joint Forge in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and two combat deployments in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Before U.S. Army Pacific, he commanded the U.S. Army Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas; I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington; and the U.S. Army Maneuver Center of Excellence and Fort Benning, Georgia.

He also served as Chief of Staff for U.S. Army Europe; Deputy Commanding General for the 25th Infantry Division; Commander, 1st Brigade (Stryker) 25th Infantry Division; Commander, 2nd Battalion 5th Cavalry, 1st Cavalry Division; the Joint Staff, J-8; Army Staff, Strategy and War Plans Division G3/5/7 in the Pentagon; Aide-de-Camp, Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army; Executive Officer to Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Assistant Professor and Deputy Director, Center for Enhanced Performance, West Point; and Infantry Assignment Officer, Human Resources Command.

General Brown holds a Bachelor of Science from the United States Military Academy, a Master of Education from the University of Virginia, and a Master of Science in National Security and Strategic Studies (Distinguished Graduate) from the National Defense University.

General Brown retired after more than 38 years of service. He was a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) before becoming President and CEO in October 2021.

In today’s podcast, General Brown discusses how the Army can reach the next generation of Americans, the creation of Multi-Domain Task Forces, challenges in the Pacific AOR, and the importance of the Human Dimension. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

• AUSA, like many other thought-leading organizations, has found itself needing to adjust to changing demographicsand has focused its outreach on connecting the Army with the community. Army bases have become heavily fortified in the post-9/11 environment, making it more difficult to reach that next generation of potential recruits. With “community connectors” and “community partners,” AUSA has the opportunity to tell the Army story and make those critical links.

• The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is more aggressive nowthan in the last several decades. Relying on his experience as the Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), GEN Brown believes the combination of an aggressive and over-confident CCP could be dangerous and potentially lead to accidental conflict.

• In the Indo-Pacific, it will be a Joint fight andevery domain matters. China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) is powerful and can repel U.S. Forces at significant distance. To combat this A2/AD problem, GEN Brown and others created the Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF)– a small maneuver force that could get inside that A2/AD bubble and persistently occupy land – enabling air and maritime assets to enter the fight.

• Allies and partners are key. Training and practicing together, as a Joint force, with our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific will be vital to preparing for and deterring potential conflictwith adversaries.

• People are our advantageand analyzing the human dimension has unearthed some latent truths. Training, education, and Leader development will need to produce individuals who thrive in ambiguity and chaos and the next generation of Soldiers must be empowered.

• Resilience can be built.With ubiquitous connectivity through social media, failures are rarely kept private. Responding to failure is a crucial component of building resilience and a critical part of success. Providing a purpose, goals, and spiritual foundation for the squad will help them develop the characteristics necessary to respond positively to failure and grow resilience within their unit.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 April 2023!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity

The Inexorable Role of Demographics and Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Most Consequential Adversaries and associated podcast, with GEN Charles A. Flynn

How China Fights and associated podcast

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

Competition in 2035: Anticipating Chinese Exploitation of Operational Environments

Synchronizing Modernization across the Army and associated podcast, with GEN Gary M. Brito

The Secret Sauce of America’s Army and associated podcast, with GEN Paul E. Funk II (USA-Ret.)

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

New Skills Required to Compete & Win in the Future Operational Environment 

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce by Sarah L. Sladek

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

General Gary M. Brito assumed duties as the 18th Commanding General, United States Army TRADOC, on September 8, 2022.  He is responsible for building and sustaining a highly trained, disciplined, and fit Army by acquiring the best people, training the most lethal Soldiers, developing the most professional leaders, guiding the Army’s culture, and shaping the future force. 

In today’s podcast, General Brito discusses synchronizing modernization across the Army, critical aspects of modernization that are crucial to shaping the fighting force , and how changes in the Operational Environment affect this process.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion with General Brito: 

• TRADOCis “that first layer of bricks” in building readiness for the Army.  In building this foundation, TRADOC acquires the very best people, trains the most lethal Soldiers, and develops the most professional Leaders. TRADOC also provides that connective tissue that guides Army culture and shapes the future force.

• Modernization ismore than materiel and the Soldier is the centerpiece. Technology does not replace them, but rather is enabled by them. This scales to the squad, platoon, company, battalion, and beyond, to give the Army the overmatch needed to contest our adversaries.

• Integration and synchronization across the entireDOTMLPF-P (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and education, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy) spectrum of capabilities is one of TRADOC’s major responsibilities.  Identifying the doctrine associated with a future tank or next generation aircraft has to occur at the earliest stages of acquisition, in coordination with other organizations like the Army Staff, Army Futures Command, FORSCOM, the Joint Force, and others.

• It’s vital that TRADOC takes the lessons learnedfrom current conflicts in Eastern Europe and elsewhere and feed them into how we train our Soldiers.  It is also important to measure the impacts of new technology and materiel in a multi-domain operation. All of this new knowledge needs to be infused into the accessions process and Professional Military Education.

• Balancing training, readiness, personnel, and modernization is a delicate and difficult balance in which all components need to be synchronized. It’s important to weave Soldier touchpoints into the acquisition process at specific milestones for user feedback. With a good plan and coordination, the Army can modernize and test equipment, while at the same time train and build readiness.

• Coordination between TRADOC and theother Army Commands is accomplished through leadership, communication, and transparency.  There is no light between Commanders of the Army Commands –they have a shared understanding of their roles within the larger Army effort. One team, one fight!

• While we may not get modernization completely right — and over the last 20 years we’ve gotten some of our assessments wrong — we must have flexibility and versatility built into our processes.  We can adapt to new technology and pivot within our acquisition system, butif we incorrectly develop our Leaders, it will take years to recover.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 23 March 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post, mark your calendars now to watch General Brito’s “Fireside Chat” with Lieutenant General(R) Leslie Smith on “Synchronizing Army Modernization” at the AUSA Global Force Symposium in Huntsville, AL, on 28 March 2023 at 1300 CDT / 1400 EDT — for more information, click here.

…in the meantime, check out the following related content:

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel , by Ian Sullivan

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts, with Brent L. Sterling, and associated podcast

Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future by Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) and its associated podcast

New Skills Required to Compete & Win in the Future Operational Environment 

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

TRADOC 2028

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

Future Jobs and Skillsets

U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity

The Inexorable Role of Demographics by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce by Sarah L. Sladek

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Joanna Siekiera is an international lawyer and Doctor of Social Sciences in public policy sciences. She studied under a New Zealand Government scholarship at the Victoria University in Wellington. Her specialization is legal and political relations in the South Pacific, and the law of armed conflict. She is prodigious author, having written a book, co-authored three monographs, over 90 scientific publications in several languages, and over 40 legal analyses.

In today’s podcast, we explore the legal aspects of Multi-Domain Operations and the protection of civilians, what we can learn from the on-going war in Ukraine as it pertains to U.S. policy and legal implications, and her concerns about security and policy in the Indo-Pacific.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview: 

• Dr. Siekiera’s goal is to advise commanders on how to lawfully accomplish their military aims by understanding legal possibilities.

• Law is important, both as a discipline and within the context of society.  Societal and cultural context help us to accurately analyze a conflict and understand the initial ideas and values that send countries to war, in order to respond appropriately and proportionally.

• There are no ethics in international law – one country’s system of values may not translate to another, creating differences in approaches to the law of armed conflict.  Context and history can teach us why countries may see things differently and help to predict further actions.

• Dr. Siekiera uses the terms “East” and “West” not to divide but to make people aware that the two are not the same.  Assuming that an adversary shares your cultural values is a dangerous and misleading bias —  mirror-imaging — that threatens security.  Alliances between nations are maintained when a shared identity is fostered.

• The legal aspects of Multi-Domain Operations and the protection of civilians are not being treated with the requisite importance.  Although international laws exist to protect civilians in armed conflicts, a nation that does not hold the same values cannot be relied upon to comply with these otherwise widely accepted humanitarian laws.  This must be recognized when planning all aspects  of military operations.

• China – the biggest threat not only to western civilization but to NATO – slowly influences economic and societal changes in surrounding nations, quietly creating a military threat decades before it is recognized.  Although NATO falls outside the Indo-Pacific region, China is still a threat through its influence in nearby nations.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 9 March 2023 when we’ll discuss synchronizing modernization efforts across the U.S. Army with  GEN Gary Brito, Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)! 

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related TRADOC G-2 and Mad Scientist content:

China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

How China Fights and associated podcast

Your Adversary is Rational, Just Not the Way You Want Them to Be  by LTC Nathan Colvin

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts, with Brent L. Sterling, and associated podcast

Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future by Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army

China: Building Regional Hegemony and China 2049: The Flight of a Particle Board Dragon, the comprehensive report from which this post was excerpted

The Most Consequential Adversaries and associated podcast, with GEN Charles A. Flynn

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

Competition in 2035: Anticipating Chinese Exploitation of Operational Environments

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

John Bicknell founded More Cowbell Unlimited to help America remain a beacon of hope and strength on the world stage. America must adopt Process Dominance as a core capability in order to innovate and survive in the Information Age.  His vision is for process technologies to be as ubiquitous as processes are.  John is a national security thought leader and passionate analytics visionary.  He has written extensively on national security matters related to information warfare, critical infrastructure defense, and space situational awareness.  John leads software and business development efforts for More Cowbell Unlimited. 

Before retiring from the United States Marine Corps in 2010 as a Lieutenant Colonel, John served worldwide, most notably in Afghanistan and at the Pentagon.  He led enterprise-level process intensive human resources supply chain projects designed to discover inefficiencies, architect solutions, and re-purpose manpower savings. In his corporate career, he operationalized an Analytics Center of Excellence for a large EdTech firm, among other accomplishments.

John is a member of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and InfraGard. He is also Vice President for the Information Professionals Association and host of The Cognitive Crucible podcast. His Master’s degree from the Naval Postgraduate School emphasizes econometrics and operations research. John lives with his family in the Pacific Northwest.

In today’s podcast, we explore complex systems, entropy, how data can be turned into action, and empowering Soldiers to make better and faster battlefield decisions.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• More Cowbell Unlimited is a decision-support firm helping organizations make better, faster, data-driven decisions through process mining — a method that illuminates where there are inefficiencies in a process and turns data into action. It can be used to process complex systems, such as modeling ecosystems of satellites in the geostationary orbital regime for the U.S. Space Force.

• Complexity is here to stay. Complex systems have characteristics that are nonlinear and difficult to predict – much like the future battlefield. Bicknell has developed a powerful way of examining complex systems by synthesizing different theories from various prominent thinkers, like measuring the entropy in complex systems using Claude Shannon’s Information Theory.

• W. Ross Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety states that for a system to maintain itself, it must grapple with the variety of activities that it encounters and have the requisite variety of responses to adapt to its surrounding environments. More Cowbell Unlimited’s technique helps model the variety of activities within the system to help understand how they are changing and identify moments when a system may be vulnerable.

• Scaled down to the tactical edge, this application can help a Company Commander achieve coup d’œil — the ability to assess what is happening within the grid squares of their area of operations in a “stroke of an eye.”  Maintaining situational awareness and understanding the shifting variety of activities within those grid squares can inform Commanders’ decision making and grant them information advantage over an adversary.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 23 February 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out:

John Bicknell‘s The Cognitive Crucible podcast

More Cowbell Unlimited‘s Information Advantage paper

… as well as the following Mad Scientist related content:

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Space: Challenges and Opportunities

Making Quick Decisions, Quicker! and associate podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, recorded on location at I/ITSEC 2022, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, Florida.  Co-hosts Luke Shabro and Matt Santaspirt spoke with Dr. Maria Kozhevnikov about non-relaxing meditative states, enhanced cognition, the relationship between video games and reaching that enhanced cognitive state, and the associated ramifications for Army training — Enjoy!]

[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]

Maria Kozhevnikov, Associate Professor of Psychology at the National University of Singapore and Visiting Associate Professor of Radiology at Harvard Medical School, is a cognitive neuroscientist with an interest in enhancing human cognition and understanding the potential of the human mind.  Her research uses modern technology, such as augmented, virtual, and mixed reality (AR/VR/MR), as well as ancient meditative techniques.  The following bullet points highlight key insights gleaned from our interview with Dr. Kozhevnikov: 

• Meditation is a great technique to induce relaxation and reduce stress, but there are many different kinds of meditation. To enhance cognitive capacity, a type of meditation can be used to induce stress to an individual in order for them to learn from it and combat it in a controlled environment.

• Meditation which is arousal-based or “good stress”-based will deliver stress that the individual can handle while still focusing on and completing the task at hand.This type of meditation is more suited to Soldiers on the battlefield who will be operating in austere environments with external factors competing for their focus.

• Arousal-based meditation releases adrenaline into the blood stream(as opposed to cortisol being released from “bad stress”).  Adrenaline triggers the body’s “fight or flight” response, which in turn amplifies cognitive and mental resources to meet the demand of the task at hand.

• People process information about the space around them in two ways: allocentric and egocentric. Allocentric processing involves an individual interpreting objects in space as they relate to other objects in space, while egocentric processing involves an individual interpreting objects in space as they relate to their own body. This distinction is important because it identifies two different ways in which learning and training occurs. It’s very important for a pilot to be egocentric while it’s important for an air traffic controller to be allocentric. Different job types require different learning methods.

• Game-based training does not necessarily have to be immersive or high fidelity to effectively train the mind.Two-dimensional video games have been shown to be just as effective as high fidelity, completely immersive, 3D first-person games, as long as the user feels there is a real threat to them or their avatar. The most important aspect is to simulate a survival-type of situation and cause the body to believe there is an actual danger to the player.  Generating realistic stress can enhance the overall effectiveness of Soldier training and mission rehearsal.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 09 February 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content:

A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle

It’s All In Your Head: How The Brain Makes Better Soldiers and associated podcast, with Zach Schonbrun

Making Quick Decisions, Quicker! and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives and associated podcast, with Cathy Hackl

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by then LTC Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

Back to the Future Writing Contest:  Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for harvesting ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  Entries should address one of the suggested topics listed here.  Entries will be accepted in two formats:

• A written essay (no more than 1500 words, please!)

• A tweet @ArmyMadSci using #MadSciBacktotheFuture

We will pick a winner from each of these two formats! Contest Winners will be proclaimed official Mad Scientists and be featured here in the Mad Scientist Laboratory.  Semi-finalists of merit will also be published!

This contest is open to any and every one — multiple submissions are encouraged!

DEADLINE:  All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern this Friday, January 13, 2023!

Questions?  Send us an eMail at:  [email protected]

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, recorded on location at I/ITSEC 2022, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, Florida.  Co-hosts  Luke Shabro and Matt Santaspirt spoke with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jenny McArdle from the Center for a New American Security, Cmdr. Paul Grøstad from NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and Whitney McNamara from Beacon Global Strategies, about emerging technologies and how they can better prepare us for both competition and conflict — Enjoy!]

Jennifer McArdle serves as an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Center for a New American Security’s defense program and wargaming lab and as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Joint Special Operations University.  A former professor, Ms. McArdle has served on Congressman Langevin’s cyber advisory committee and as an expert member of a NATO technical group that developed cyber effects for the military alliance’s mission and campaign simulations. Ms. McArdle is a PhD candidate at King’s College London in War Studies, is the recipient of the RADM Fred Lewis (I/ITSEC) doctoral scholarship in modeling and simulation, and is a Certified Modeling and Simulation Professional (CMSP). She is a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations.  Ms. McArdle is also a proclaimed Mad Scientist, having frequently contributed to the Mad Scientist Laboratory blog site and The Convergence podcast.

Cmdr. Paul Grøstad  is Deputy Branch Head for Concept Development at NATO ACT.  A Royal Norwegian Navy officer with 29 years experience in Signals, C4ISR, and Cyber Operations, Cmdr. Grøstad is currently researching Cognitive Warfare, Malign Influence, the Information Environment, and Cognitive Effects. He has extensive international experience from serving in multiple positions at different levels of the NATO command structure.  A Norwegian Naval Academy and Joint Command and Staff College graduate, he holds a Master’s degree in military studies from the Norwegian Defence University College and a Bachelor’s degree in Information Science from the University of Bergen.  Cmdr. Grøstad is a certified PRINCE2 Practitioner.

Whitney McNamara is an Associate Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.  She is also currently supporting the Atlantic Council’s Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption, where she is the lead author on assessing critical technologies and their barriers to innovation in the Department.  She previously served on the Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Board (DIB), whose mission is to provide the Secretary of Defense, Deputy Secretary of Defense, and other senior leaders across the DoD with independent advice and recommendations on emerging technologies and innovative approaches that the Department should adopt to ensure U.S. technological and military dominance.  Ms. McNamara is a former National Security Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and worked in the Political-Military Bureau at the Department of State and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy.  She received her M.A. in Strategic Studies and International Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies where she was a Bradley Fellow and a Presidential Management Fellowship Finalist.

In today’s podcast, our panel of experts address emerging technologies and how they can better prepare us for both competition and conflict.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• The biggest difference in the most recent National Defense Strategy (NDS) is that China is identified as our most consequential strategic competitor, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China, unlike Russia, has the global reach and the capability to reorder the global system, making China the more existential threat. The central premise of the NDS is how to sustain deterrence against China.
• China is conducting holistic strategies to achieve their objectives, making it necessary for DoD’s strategies to be holistic in nature as well. DoD has identified the need for “integrated deterrence” – seamlessly working across warfighting domains and bringing in other instruments of US national power. “Campaigning” is the way DoD plans to carry out integrated deterrence.
• The NDS discusses the role of technology in escalation dynamics, especially in the Cyber and Space Domains, and innovation in national security. It is necessary to figure out how to support and cooperate with our diverse network of research institutions and tech industry to maintain our technological edge.
• The NATO Strategic Concept, updated every 10 years, reinforces the key purpose of the Alliance – collective defense. The recent concept recognizes Russiaas a threat to Alliance security, a dramatic shift in the language previously used. China remains a challenge for the Alliance, as its malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security. However, NATO remains open to constructive engagement with China, including building reciprocal transparency, with a view to safeguarding the Alliance’s security interests. NATO remains committed to working together responsibly, as Allies, to address the systemic challenges posed by China to Euro-Atlantic security and ensure NATO’s enduring ability to guarantee the defense and security of the Alliance.
• The NATO Strategic Concept identified emerging disruptive technology as a growing challenge that is altering the character of conflict and impacting success on the battlefield. Although the concept does not identify any single technology, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomy, and Big Dataare seen as the most immediate technologies that can be exploited right now.
• “All but war is simulation.” Simulationis integral to both deterrence and readiness. The type of simulation needed depends on the end goal. Simulations can be live, virtual, or constructive:

Live– Real people operating real platforms in a simulated environment.

Virtual– Real people operating a simulated system in a simulated environment.

Constructive– Synthetic entities operating a simulated system in a simulated environment.

• Virtual and constructive simulations is where synthetic environments come in. Synthetic environments are crucial to thinking about the future of competition and conflict and simulating multi-domain operations.  The cognitive (i.e., human) dimensionis where decisions are made and wars are won and lost. The military often struggles with simulating the human elements of warfare.
• Synthetic environmentsare very well suited to promoting integrated deterrence because they allow cross department collaboration and information sharing, show actions are logically linked, provide a collaborative environment to simulate campaigning, and wargame decisions to develop best practices. A synthetic environment can be a holistic platform that allows DoD to game out the complexity it is trying to manage.
• People tend to describe the metaverse as a series of interconnected virtual worlds that afford their users a sense of agency and presence — the DoD has used this concept for decades. What’s new is that the commercial world is now paying attention, creating commercial applications and fueling innovation that has implications for defense.
• Cognitive warfare in the metaverse will impact information operations. There is a threat potential that the capabilities of the metaverse will be exploited and weaponized. The more immersive the experience, the more influence potential the experience has.
  
  Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, recorded on location at I/ITSEC in Orlando, Florida.  We’ll be talking with Dr. Maria Kozhevnikov, Associate Professor of Psychology at the National University of Singapore and Visiting Associate Professor of Radiology at Harvard Medical School, about (non-relaxing) meditative states, enhanced cognition, the relationship between video games and reaching that enhanced cognitive state, and much more!

[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, featuring our interview with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin, CEO and Co-Founder of deCervo, discussing the science of quick decision making, how deCervo blends gaming with science to help individuals make the best decisions in high stakes and complex environments, how these technologies have enhanced professional athletes’ performance, and these technologies’ potential for enhancing Soldiers’ performance — Enjoy!]

Jason Sherwin, Ph.D., is a founder and currently serves as CEO of deCervo, a neuroscience tech company he founded with his research partner, Jordan Muraskin, Ph.D.  Since starting in 2014,  deCervo has provided cognitive training programs using neuroimaging and customized phone apps to over 15 Major League Baseball organizations, over 60,000 baseball and softball players worldwide, the umpires of the Major Leagues, and the officials of the National Hockey League.  deCervo has been an Army research grant recipient since 2017 and Sherwin himself has done contract research for the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Army Research Laboratory going back to 2011.  Continuing to apply its novel approach to decision training, deCervo is currently launching apps in law enforcement and tennis training to complement its suite of five other apps for decision training.

• Analyzing quick decision-making is done by providing simple stimuli to people, imaging their response and its speed, and identifying how their brain reacts to different inputs. This can be accomplished by having a subject listen to a song with an unexpected, abrupt key change; not only do brains show a reaction to that unexpected change, but trained musicians’ brains produce a stronger response, as captured via electro-encephalogram (EEG), than a non-musician’s brain.

• deCervo’s apps for baseball players use accuracy measurements to estimate how well the user discriminates between different kinds of pitches.  This approach is an evolution from using EEGs, and shows that non-invasive methods can be just as effective in measuring responses.  Improving athletic prowess on the playing field has direct implications for improving warfighting prowesson the modern battlefield.

• Emotion impacts all decision making, but deliberate decisions are more susceptible to influence from emotionand often require simulations generated by video or AI to produce environments that are closer to real life.  For Soldiers, decisions often need to be deliberate while dealing with fear and strong emotion in dynamic, austere, and potentially lethal environments; training for this kind of decision making requires teaching people how to respond quickly and correctly, despite emotional impacts or inhibition.

• Military decision making can involve simple decisions like target detection, but more often requires the ability to make complex, deliberate decisions.  Using effective human teaming and social sensing can help train for visual search type decisions where Soldiers analyze their own placement and their teammates’ placements and effectively respond as a team.

• Using a deCervo app is like getting the Cliff’s Notes on how to do your job better.  It’s not just about training for better decision making, but also informing users about what making those decisions quickly feels like, what it means to identify the correct response, and what to do next so users trust what the system is trainingthem to do.

• Real-time decision making for military applications could even be supplemented by technology that assists and optimizes the situation for choosing correct responses, andquick decision-making training with such tools can build Soldiers’ trust in the ways these systems assist them.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, recorded on location at I/ITSEC, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, FL. We’ll be talking with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jenny McArdle from Improbable, Cmdr. Paul Grøstad from NATO ACT, and Whitney McNamara from Beacon Global Strategies about emerging technologies and competition and conflict.

The Army Mad Scientist Initiative is hosting our Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference, November 8th and 9th, at the National Museum of the United States Army.  It is our first in-person conference since 2019!

• The conference will feature world renowned historians, thinkers, innovators, futurists, and industry leaders. We’ll use history to set the foundation for our look into the future to determine what the Operational Environment might look like, what new and unique conditions a Soldier might encounter, and what capabilities they might need — Check out our exciting conference agenda hereand presenter and panelist biographies here !

• You can still attend the event in-person by registering here through Eventbrite — Hurry, space is limited! You must be registered with Eventbrite in order to gain access to the conference.  Museum security will have a list of all individuals registered and will check your name upon entry.

• You can also attend the conference virtually! Everything will be live-streamed through Zoom— you can connect and engage in real time remotely here, beginning at 7:45 am Eastern, Tuesday, 08 November 2022! 

Whether in person or virtually, please plan on joining Army Mad Scientist at our Back to the Future:  Using History to Forecast conference — you’ll be glad you did!

Check out content from previous Army Mad Scientist events on our All Partners Access Network (APAN) Conference page (just click on an event to drill down to explore event agendas, presenter bio’s, presentations, and notes) and YouTube Channel Video Playlists — content from next week’s conference will be similarly archived for future reference!

Back to the Future Writing Contest:  Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for harvesting ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  Entries should address one of the topics’ writing prompts listed here.  Entries will be accepted in two formats:

• 
  A written essay(no more than 1500 words, please!)

• A tweet @ArmyMadSci using #MadSciBacktotheFuture

We will pick a winner from each of these two formats! Contest Winners will be proclaimed official Mad Scientists and be featured here in the Mad Scientist Laboratory.  Semi-finalists of merit will also be published!

This contest is open to any and every one — multiple submissions are encouraged!

DEADLINE:  All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on January 13, 2023!

Looking for additional ideas?  Explore the Mad Scientist Laboratory at: https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil

Questions?  Send us an eMail at:  [email protected]

Inderpal Bhandari rejoined IBM as Global Chief Data Officer in December 2015. In this newly created role, he has leveraged his extensive experience to lead the development of IBM’s data strategy and drive IBM’s internal cognitive enterprise transformation. The work has culminated in the AI Enterprise Blueprint; a roadmap for IBM’s clients on their own journeys to AI.  Inderpal is an expert in transforming data into business value and improved customer experiences by delivering strategic, innovative capabilities that use analytic insights to enable growth and productivity.  In 2017, he was named U.S. Chief Data Officer of the Year by the CDO Club, and has been featured as an industry expert by Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, US News & World Report, CNN, and FOX.  Inderpal earned his Master of Science Degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from the University of Massachusetts and holds a PhD in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University.  Learn more about Inderpal’s insights on harnessing the power of data and accelerating Artificial Intelligence (AI) implementation at IBM’s Journey to AI and Think blogs.

In today’s podcast, we talk with Inderpal about data as a strategic asset, the challenge in ensuring new technologies are intuitive to engender user trust, and how Soldiers can be empowered to transform the Army into a data-centric culture.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Describing “data” as a field of study is like the “blind men describing an elephant,” each one will have a different, limited aspect of it, and thus, a different description. Data is now being recognized as more than just a record, as it can illuminate patterns and insights that can re-shape or invent new businesses and products. It is a strategic asset that is being referred to as the new oil, because it is “the fuel that drives the engine.” 

• Scaling is the goal of any chief data officer of a large company with a global footprint. The first key step is to understand what the company is trying to do, or for a commercial company, how they are trying to make money, and using the data strategy to enable that goal. For a large enterprise like the Army,the question will be how data can enable the Army to accomplish its various mission sets of deploying, fighting, and winning our Nation’s wars. 

• Culture change can occur in three ways:  Top-down as a strategy, laterally, and bottom-up/ grassroots. Bottom-up makes up the most significant portion of successful culture change in a system. Organizations need to make sure the users are prepared, and the technology interfaces are adapted to the change being sought. 

• You can’t make every employee or Soldier into a data scientist. It’s crucial to design systems or technology in a way that brings people along in a way that allows them to intuitively use them. Trust is a significant portion of that design. The system or technologyneeds to be able to explain to the decision-maker in human terms why it’s making the recommendation that it is. 

• In a data-centric culture, people have to be empowered. Employees and Soldiers in this type of environment can’t continually go up the ladder or chain of command to ask for permission. They must be able to act on the information that they’re given. But empowerment has to be vetted, as it can lead to chaos if not.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring insights about our upcoming Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022. To whet your appetite, check out the Save the Date announcement (below) and associated post here.

If you enjoyed today’s podcast and blog post, check out the following related content:

The Secret Sauce of America’s Army and associated podcast, with GEN Paul E. Funk II (USA-Ret.)

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Outsiders Solving Wicked Problems and associated podcast, with Shubhi Mishra

Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis, and Strategic Latency Unleashed!

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025:  A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

Algorithms of Armageddon and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

SAVE THE DATE:  Join Army Mad Scientist and the National Museum of the United States Army (NMUSA) for the Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022, at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. This event will feature world-renowned expert speakers and panelists from industry, tech, academia, and the U.S. military and other government agencies discussing how history and experience inform and shape our future thinking and decision-making on critical issues. These historians, futurists, and thought leaders will converge backcasting with futurecasting to provide penetrating insights on Army people, materiel, readiness, and doctrine and concepts initiatives. Click here for more information about our first in-person conference since 2019!

Amy Webb advises Chief eXperience Officers (CXOs) of the world’s most-admired companies, three-star admirals and generals, and the senior leadership of central banks and intergovernmental organizations. Founder of the Future Today Institute, a leading foresight and strategy firm that helps leaders and their organizations prepare for complex futures, Amy pioneered a data-driven, technology-led foresight methodology that is now used within hundreds of organizations. Forbes called Amy “one of the five women changing the world.” She was honored as one of the BBC’s 100 Women of 2020 and is ranked on the Thinkers50 list of the 50 most influential management thinkers globally.  Amy is the best-selling author of several books. Her latest book, The Genesis Machine (PublicAffairs / Hachette 2022) examines the futures of gene editing, biotech, and synthetic biology. Synthetic biology is the promising and controversial technology platform that combines biology and artificial intelligence, opening up the potential to program biological systems much as we program computers. 

In today’s podcast, we talk with Amy about strategic foresight, emerging technologies like synthetic biology, and what she sees as vital implications for the U.S. Army.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• There are always three stages of work, whether in government or private sector, when it comes to foresight: Inputs (forces, signals, and trends), outcomes (scenarios describing plausible futures), and some form of action or backcasting (reverse engineering a preferred future).

• Synthetic or engineered biology consists of modifying or manipulating biological code to give it new or enhanced purposes.In the “read, edit, write” analogy, synthetic biology gives the user the “write” function to make sweeping changes with more control. This is not limited to human biology as it can be applied to plants, viruses, and any other biological material.

• Access to synthetic or designer biology may create a new class of genetic haves and have-nots. Wealth will be a restricting factor, but religious beliefs may also prove to be less tolerant of these manipulations and changes, thus hard-coding specific social values into the DNA of the future
• Policy and regulation do not adequately address the synthetic biology issue in a cohesive way. In some countries, genetic screening for certain types of diseases is employed, but it is generally unfavorable to screen for attributes that correlate to higher intelligence.  However, in some countries it is not illegal, and there are commercial entities offering to screen for cognitive ability.

• There are many implications borne out of a democratization of synthetic biology technology that will affect the U.S. Army in the future. Researchers are developing a device similar in size to a mobile phone that, in a battlefield environment, could screen for and sequence a novel pathogen. This will allow Soldiers to identify which genetic material and re-agents to use as an antidote or mix for a vaccine in the field.This could potentially increase battlefield readiness.

• The brain-machine computer known as “dishbrain”– containing human cells — was able to learn the video game “pong” more quickly than any artificial intelligence ever.  In the future, this type of technology could be used for hyper-real time, high-frequency strategy creation by the Army or, conversely, an adversary.

• The ethical considerations for “dishbrain” must also be taken into account.  Would it be considered a war-crime to torture an organic entity that’s not, by definition, a human? Will our adversaries come to the same conclusion as the U.S., or will we be disadvantaged by an asymmetry in ethics?

• Generative Artificial Intelligence is the next big societal disruptor.New open-source tools are scraping publicly available information for content, data, and potential decisions for investors. It could also be used to amplify misinformation and allow a foreign actor to sow distrust in a way that is harder to detect and more effective overall.
  
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — featuring Force Multiplier innovators from this year’s on-going Fed Supernova conference in Austin, Texas — coming to you on 13 October 2022! 

If you enjoyed this podcast, check out the following related content:

Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DOD, and the comprehensive report from which it was sourced

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

Linking Brains to Machines, and Use of Neurotechnology to the Cultural and Ethical Perspectives of the Current Global Stage, by Mr. Joseph DeFranco and Dr. James Giordano.

China’s Brain Trust: Will the U.S. Have the Nerve to Compete? by Mr. Joseph DeFranco, CAPT (USN – Ret.) L. R. Bremseth, and Dr. James Giordano

Disrupting the “Chinese Dream” – Eight Insights on how to win the Competition with China

Connected Warfare by COL James K. Greer (USA-Ret.)

Benefits, Vulnerabilities, and the Ethics of Soldier Enhancement

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano’s presentation and video on Neurotechnology in National Security and Defense, from the Mad Scientist Visioning Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on 25 & 26 July 2017; and his Neuroscience and the Weapons of War podcast, hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute (MWI), 2 August 2017

Top Ten Bio Convergence Trends Impacting the Future Operational Environment, Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference Final Report, and the comprehensive Final Report from the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference with SRI International at their Menlo Park campus in California on 8–9 March 2018

Ethics and the Future of War panel discussion, facilitated by proclaimed Mad Scientist LTG Jim Dubik (USA-Ret.) from the Mad Scientist Visualizing Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. on 25-26 July 2017

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far… and Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Raechel Melling

SAVE THE DATE:  Join Army Mad Scientist and the National Museum of the United States Army (NMUSA) for the Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022, at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. This event will feature world-renowned expert speakers and panelists from industry, tech, academia, and the U.S. military and other government agencies discussing how history and experience inform and shape our future thinking and decision-making on critical issues. These historians, futurists, and thought leaders will converge backcasting with futurecasting to provide penetrating insights on Army people, materiel, readiness, and doctrine and concepts initiatives. Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for more information on our first in-person conference since 2019!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Karen Kaya specializes in Middle Eastern affairs with a particular focus on Turkey for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) within the TRADOC G-2.  She has worked on numerous projects in national security as a defense and security policy analyst.  Ms. Kaya has a BA from Boğaziçi University (in Istanbul, Turkey), and an MA from Brandeis University.

In today’s podcast, we talk with Ms. Kaya about the Bayraktar TB-2 UAV, its employment in recent conflicts including Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia-Ukraine, as well as the implications of Turkey becoming a global drone manufacturer and distributor.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• The Bayraktar TB-2 is a Turkish medium altitude, long endurance UAV capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations. Because of its inexpensive price point and ease of use, it has been dubbed the “Kalashnikov of the 21st century.”

• The TB-2 is unique amongst combat drones in that it has a low radar cross-sectionand flight speed, thus making it difficult for air defense radar to detect. This allows the TB-2 toengage and destroy systems designed to provide short to medium  range air defense. It can deliver laser guided munitions that can adjust their trajectories in mid-flight to target.

• Turkey has been training the Azerbaijani Armed Forces on how to effectively employ the TB-2 in combat. The Azeris used them systematically in the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh Waragainst Armenia’s Soviet and Russian-made air defense systems to breach the line of contact and take territory before the cease-fire agreement was signed.

• Their use and employment in Ukraine is different from that of Nagorno-Karabakh, as Ukraine is on the defensiveand has not trained with Turkey previously. However, it is important to note that this is the first time that the TB-2 has been used against Russian systems manned by Russian soldiers.

• In the last few years, Turkey has emerged as a drone superpower. It is one of the four leading countries in the world to produce, use, and export armed drones.The quality and relative low cost of the TB-2 has allowed Turkey to sell significant quantities to medium-sized countries without large defense budgets in Europe, Asia, and Africa. This, in turn, expands Turkey’s geopolitical influence.

• The other powers are watching. China is taking noteand seeing the importance of the relationship between drones and artillery while Russia is uneasy because the TB-2 has now been employed successfully against its own forces, its allies, and its equipment.

• The U.S. is witnessing these technologies’ costs falling, lowering the ‘entrance fee’ to combined arms operations and granting even non-state actors the ability to procure air domain capabilities.  As medium powers with limited defense budgets acquire these specific capabilities, they can significantly enhance their overall military capability at a relatively low cost. This could precipitate geopolitical competitions and inter-state rivalries transitioning into open conflict, complicating the operational environment.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring Amy Webb, futurist, author, and founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute. We’ll talk with Amy about strategic foresight, emerging technologies like synthetic biology, and what she sees as vital implications for the U.S. Army.

If you enjoyed Karen Kaya‘s podcast, check out her related monograph —  Turkey as a Drone Superpower:  A Case Study of a Mid-Size Power Driving the Operational Environment

… as well as the following related Mad Scientist content:

The Dawn of the Loitering Munitions Era, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Daniel S. Nasereddine

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) and its associated podcast

Insights from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in 2020 (Part I and II)