The Convergence – An Army Mad Scientist Podcast

[Editor’s Note:  Sunday morning’s tropical idyll was shattered as the adversary’s surprise attack caught our naval, ground, and air forces completely unprepared. An hour and a half later, more than 2,400 U.S. Service members and civilians had been killed, with almost another 1,200 wounded. Despite three missed tactical warnings that could have alerted our local defenses of the impending attack (perhaps reducing its effectiveness), senior Army and Navy leaders on-site remained blithely unaware until the first wave of attackers struck their primary targets — as were the Nation’s political and military leadership in Washington, DC, when they received news of the catastrophic attack. Collectively, we had been lulled by perhaps the most insidious of cognitive biases — mirror imaging — believing that the Japanese Empire wanted to avoid war with the U.S. at all costs because of our perceived military superiority.

“Mirror imaging occurs when we subscribe our beliefs or ideas to other competitors. A corollary to this mirror imaging idea is the concept of railroading where we assume that other competitors, for example, are developing technology at similar pace and along the same track that we are. Mirror imaging places a premium on the notion that our way is the only way – discounting history and organizational, strategic, geographic, and cultural differences – as well as dismissing ideas that others might have.” As Dr. Nick Marsella stated so eloquently, “Thinking about the future is hard work, requiring us to continually examine the rigor associated with these efforts and avoiding the cognitive biases inherent in our future’s work. ”

Gaming is an invaluable tool for adding rigor to our exploration of Operational Environment possibilities – it also helps us to identify and avoid our cognitive biases. Frequent contributor LTC Nathan Colvin recently used game theory to explore the dynamics affecting three principal “actors” – the transnational “liberal order” (i.e., the West), the diffuse aggregate needs of the Russian people (a society of individuals), and the individual needs of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin himself (as an autocratic leader) — to clinically explain the rationale underlying the superficially irrational invasion of Ukraine. Today’s post features highlights from our latest episode of The Convergence podcast with LTC Nathan  Colvin discussing game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision-making processes — Read on!]

LTC Nathan Colvin is currently an Army War College Fellow at the College of William and Mary. He holds a Graduate Certificate in Modeling and Simulations from Old Dominion University, where he is also completing his Ph.D. in International Studies as an I/ITSEC Leonard P. Gollobin Scholar. He earned masters’ degrees in Aeronautics and Space Studies (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University), Administration (Central Michigan University), and Military Theater Operations (School of Advanced Military Studies). He is an Army Strategist and former Aviator with deployments to Eastern Europe, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Nathan Colvin to discuss game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision-making processes. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• We tend to view rationality through the lens of our own value set – mirror imaging– which can often lead to unintended bias when viewing decision-making. If rationality is simply thought of as a social construct, where each culture has a different “good” and “bad,” it is possible to understand actions as rational in a logical sense,even though the actor and observer may not hold the same value set.
• Analyzing a situation using a two-state model is outdated and does not consider the interests and values of other actors, such as leaders and domestic audiences, that influence decision-making. LTC Colvin developed athree-player game theory model that separates Vladimir Putin from the Russian state, highlighting Putin’s personal value set that does not necessarily align with the state’s.
  
  
• In social science, mixed methods (quantitative and qualitative data) is the most powerful research approach. Quantifiable data, when it exists, is useful — however, human nature is extremely hard to quantify and requires the use of other types of logic, such as the Likert Scale, to capture an actor’s response to their environment.
  
  
• The game theory model is not meant to be predictivebut helps produce a roadmap that illuminates possible futures. It is more of a sense-making orientation that acts as a framework to facilitate thinking through a problem and describing actions that would typically seem irrational.
  
  
• In addition to acknowledging the pitfalls of mirror imaging, other important tools for a Red Team perspective include critical thinking, cultural awareness and empathy, problem reframing, stake-holder mapping(specifically network connections), the five why’s, and the Delphi technique (comparing multiple SMEs’ opinions to find variations).

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 31 August 2023 when we’ll feature part two of our interview exploring the AI Study Buddy at the Army War College with creator Dr. Billy Barry —  discussing AI study technology, its impact within the Army War College, and how he sees it evolving in the future.

If you enjoyed this post, read LTC Nathan Colvin’s recent posts Your Adversary is Rational, Just Not the Way You Want Them to Be and  What Happens If Great Powers Don’t Fight Great Wars?

… explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment and our how our adversaries fight.  If you have a Common Access Card, you’ll be especially interested in our weekly Russia-Ukraine Conflict Running Estimates, capturing what we are learning about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P — access them all here…

… and check out the following related Mad Scientist:

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

On Surprise Attacks Below the “Bolt from the Blue” Threshold by Lesley Kucharski

Why the Next “Cuban Missile Crisis” Might Not End Well: Cyberwar and Nuclear Crisis Management by Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala

Some Thoughts on Futures Work (Part I) by Dr. Nick Marsella

Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Future and associated podcast

Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

Gamers Building the Future Force  and associated podcast, with Capt Zach Baumann, Capt Oliver Parsons, and MSgt Michael Sullivan

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

>>>>REMINDER:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note: In recent weeks, Mad Scientist Laboratory has featured a number of podcasts and associated blog posts exploring the democratization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its potential ramifications for Warfighters and the Operational Environment (OE). From generating better proposals from a broader array of defense contractors, exploring the future of warfare and OE trends, the convergence of neuroscience and AI, and the future of learning through emerging technologies — large language models (e.g., Open AI‘s ChatGPT) can augment how we learn, work, create, and — most importantly to the U.S. Army — compete and fight.
Imagine a not-too-distant future when all of our Military Leaders (from platoon to echelons above corps) are able to harness the comprehensive thoughts and insights of the world’s military theorists and tacticians, from antiquity to the present, via a personal AI digital assistant — or as proclaimed Mad Scientist Juliane Gallina so eloquently stated — a “Patton in the Pocket.” Human-machine teaming has the potential to enable future Commanders to focus on the battle at hand with coup d’œil, or the “stroke of an eye,” maintaining situational awareness and processing inputs, generating potential courses of action, and down selecting the best way ahead — tailored to specific mission objectives and conditions at the bleeding edge of the fight — all at machine speed. Sustained Soldier overmatch indeed!

The application of Soldier-enhancing human-machine teaming isn’t limited to tactical applications, however. In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we interview LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC, about his experience in applying human-machine teaming to support Professional Military Education (PME), leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust in AI applications — Enjoy!]

LtCol Joe Buffamante is a native of Great Valley, New York, and graduated from Miami (Ohio) University, receiving his commission in the United States Marine Corps in May 2003. Upon completion of The Basic School, he was designated an Armor Officer and graduated from the Armor Officer Basic Course in May 2004. He has commanded USMC units in combat tours to both Iraq and Afghanistan, and has served as a maneuver and fire support team instructor at 29 Palms, California. LtCol Buffamante assumed the duties as Chief of Readiness for Joint Task Force Civil Support (JTF-CS), Ft. Eustis, Virginia, in 2014, ultimately serving as the training chief for current operations where he was responsible for training all Joint Operations Center personnel. Following completion of this Joint assignment, LtCol Buffamante attended the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, earning a Master’s Degree in Defense and Strategic Studies. He also attended the Maritime Advanced Warfighting School (MAWS) and received the additional MOS of 0505 (MAGTF Planner). LtCol Buffamante is currently a student at the United States Army War College (AWC) in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with LtCol Buffamante to discuss his experience in applying human-machine teaming to support PME, leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust in AI applications. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• As a student at the AWC, LtCol Buffamante, along with Dr. Billy Barry, used a large language model as a learning support tool to explore the effectiveness of human-machine teaming research, specifically the effectiveness of the system itself and in collaboration with a human vice a human alone.

• LtCol Buffamante employed the system to assist in answering research questions related to his coursework. He coordinated with his professors to hand in three products for each assignment – AI produced, AI and human produced, and human produced – without his professors knowing who the author was.

• The AI-Human team produced the highest quality products — better than AI or human alone — and received the best grades from AWC professors. This further supports the centaur theory that AI alone may not be as transformative as we think and the need for a human agent to steer the system and add context is still apparent.

• There were some drawbacks to AI-Human teaming noted by LtCol Buffamante:

• In its current state, the large language model used is not accessible remotely. If students want to use it, they must be physically in the room with the system.

• Trust is still an issue. Users are unsure where the system gets its information, and are therefore less trusting of the answers provided.

• The machine relies on a corpus of pre-screened information and cannot listen to or follow an active conversation. Relying solely on historical data precludes it from providing decision support in certain time-sensitive or dynamic environments.

• The future of this technology will be tailorable, customizable, and based on a dynamic corpus of data. The system could also be tailored to respond to queries from the perspective of a U.S. Army G3 or a PLA G3. Specialization, vice generality is where these systems add value to existing Army processes and functions.
 
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 17 August 2023, featuring our discussion with frequent guest blogger LTC Nathan Colvin on game theory and how it can provide insights into the pitfalls of mirror imaging our rationality and morality onto foreign leaders’ decision making processes.

"We found that people systematically were more willing to reveal confidential or sensitive information to a virtual human than to a real person"

[Editor’s Note: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging game-changer technology for our Warfighters — as Dr. James Mancillas espoused in a previous post, “AI systems offer the potential to continue maximizing the advantages of information superiority, while overcoming limits in human cognitive abilities.” Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work stated at the Mad Scientist Disruption and the Operational Environment Conference, co-sponsored by The University of Texas at Austin in 2019, that this is an “Own the Night Moment for the United States Army” — the Army (and TRADOC) must embrace and rapidly incorporate AI across the force.

One such AI application is enhancing Army learning and training. The Army will not only have to incorporate AI as a subject in its Professional Military Education (PME) — ensuring our Soldiers and Leaders have the requisite AI literacy — it has the opportunity to utilize AI in augmenting Field Training Exercises, Home Station Training, and Combat Training Center rotations to expose and prepare our Warfighters for the second and third order effects resulting from the compressed battle rhythms wrought by AI.

In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we interview Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) — a DoD-sponsored University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) focused on immersive technology, simulation, human performance, computer graphics, AI, and narrative — about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies. Enjoy!]

Dr. Keith Brawner is the Program Manager of the Institute for Creative Technologies University Affiliated Research Center (ICT UARC) for the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, as managed by the U.S. Army DEVCOM Soldier Center, where he is also the lead for AI initiatives. He is a research leader in intelligent tutoring systems with over 100 publications in research/ application of simulation and training technologies.

While he manages the ICT at the University of Southern California, he works at the SFC Paul Ray Smith Simulation and Training Technology facility in Orlando, Florida. He has worked on, or contributed to, systems which train land navigation, marksmanship, hovercraft operation, destroyer decision making, physics, UAV route planning, calling for indirect fires, submarine harbor navigation, sonar system operation, helicopter flight, counterinsurgency, and many others. His current research focus is on enhancing simulations, the realism within simulations, the behaviors of simulated characters, and the creation of human behavior change. He earned a BS in Electrical Engineering from the University of Central Florida. He earned an MS and Ph.D in Computer Engineering while working full-time for the Navy (Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division) and Army (Army Research Laboratory), respectively. He is the recipient of the National Training and Simulation Association Governors award (2nd highest honor) and the UCF Alumni 30 under 30 award.

Dr. William Swartout is a research professor in the Computer Science Department at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and Chief Technology Officer at the USC Institute for Creative Technologies, providing overall direction to the institute’s research. Dr. Swartout was also recently named Co-Director of USC’s Center for Generative AI and Society. In 2009, he received the Robert Engelmore Award from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) for seminal contributions to knowledge-based systems and explanation, groundbreaking research on virtual human technologies and their applications, and outstanding service to the AI community.

Dr. Swartout is a Fellow of the AAAI, has served on their Board of Councilors, and is past chair of the Special Interest Group on Artificial Intelligence (SIGART) of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). He has served as a member of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, the Board on Army Science and Technology of the National Academies, and the JFCOM Transformation Advisory Group. Prior to helping found the ICT in 1999, he was the Director of the Intelligent Systems Division at the USC Information Sciences Institute. Dr. Swartout received his Ph.D and MS in Computer Science from MIT and his bachelor’s degree from Stanford University. He has been involved in cutting edge research and development of AI systems throughout his career.

In this latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) to talk about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• The Institute for Creative Technologies within the University of Southern California was formed in 1999 as the DoD took notice of significant advancements in video game technology. The simulations from the commercial video game industry were outpacing those developed by the military and doing so at a lower price point. ICT was established to create a closer relationship between the DoD and the entertainment industry to leverage those tools, ideas, creativity, and resources.

• The Center for Generative AI and Society is a newly formed research organization within USC that endeavors to explore the impact that generative AI and related fields have on society and how we can best use these emerging technologies to advance humanity. Dr. Swartout’s research focuses on generative AI and education – viewing this technology as a tool similar to the advent of the calculator. Education in the future will use generative AI for research and writing, with students’ evaluations being based on the entire process vice solely their end product.

• AI is widely viewed as one of the things that will help us sustain overmatch over our near peer adversaries, but most people in the general workforce know very little about it. There is a very real need for increased AI literacy not only for AI programmers but for those who are going to be managing AI systems.

• Research at ICT has shown that people respond to virtual humans in much the same way that they respond to real people but there are some key differences. People felt safer and more comfortable revealing sensitive information to a virtual human.

• Training, education, and Leader development in the military will have to adapt. The key skills taught will remain enduring, however the method of consumption, instruction, and delivery will continue to change, as it has across the ages — from clay tablets, to books, to online videos. Future PME may consist of computer-generated customized learning paths tested on simulated students with on-demand learning content.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 July 2023, when we’ll interview LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC, about human-machine teaming, leveraging large language models as effective learning support tools, and establishing and maintaining trust with your personal AI assistant.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following content:

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025:  A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

>>>>REMINDER:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor's Note:  Crowdsourcing and Storytelling are two of Army Mad Scientist's most effective tools in exploring future possibilities regarding the Operational Environment. Crowdsourcing helps us harvest ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping us to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Storytelling — creative fictional writing and narrative building — helps us to explore how concepts, technologies, and other capabilities could be employed and operationalized. Together, they help us to effectively source, then impart knowledge about future possibilities — creating a network of people with a shared understanding of potential futures.
In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with John "Grant" Rafter to discuss the Air Force Futures’ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest (see more about this in the Announcement at the bottom of today’s post) — Read on!]


[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.] 

John "Grant" Rafter is the Branch Chief for Futures and Foresight in Air Force Futures. He also has experience with the U.S. Secret Service, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy as the Regional Director for Maghreb, and with the UN Development Programme in Myanmar.  Mr. Rafter has a B.A. in English from Dartmouth College, a J.D. from the University of Washington School of Law, and an M.P.P. from the Harvard Kennedy School focusing on Management, Leadership, and Decision-Making in International Organizations.  He is finalizing an additional master’s degree with a focus on China.
In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with John "Grant" Rafter to discuss the Air Force Futures‘ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040 (aka AFGFR), and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — seeking to crowdsource engaging, plot-driven stories that illustrate a scenario from one of the many futures described in the AFGFR.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

As the world becomes more volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) – especially post-COVID – the demand for foresight increases. Foresight excels in a VUCA environment as linear projections become less certain and timelines increase. Foresight helps organizations like the Joint Force obviate and avoid strategic surprise.
  
The AFGFR explores the seven Joint Functions for warfighting — command and control, information, intelligence, fires, movement and maneuver, protection, and sustainment — through four alternative futures:  Growth, Transformational, Constrained, and Collapsed. The AFGFR examined these competing Operational Environments and how the trends and forces within each impacted mission sets for the Air Force, as well as the DoD at large.

The Joint Functions for warfighting are cross cutting (across not only specific military branches, but the entire Joint Force), proving to be the best lens for utility and relevance. Using modified foresight methodologies, AF Futures was able to crowdsource and condense the expertise from hundreds of foresight practitioners – a diverse group from across Government agencies, academia, and Allied and Partner nations – into 32 pages of analysis. 

The AFGFR and associated four worlds help planners to assess how well their plan, team, or organization functions (or not) in any of the proposed futures. They can then identify weaknesses or opportunities in their concepts and refine as they go. 

The report identified six key trends overall, with the scope, scale, and speed of computing; the myth of sanctuary due to cyber, bio, and space; and economic interconnectedness – globalization and deglobalization – as the most impactful.
  
The future exists in multiple stages at once. Identifying the edge of potential futures helps the Force know the left and right bounds and prepare for both sides of the extremes. If we are proactive, we can shape the future we want to see.
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 13 July 2023, when we’ll talk with we talk with Drs. Keith Brawner and Bill Swartout from the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies (USC ICT) — a DoD-sponsored University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) focused on immersive technology, simulation, human performance, computer graphics, artificial intelligence and narrative — about the Center for Generative AI and Society within ICT, their research into large language models, and their vision of the future of training through emerging technologies.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following content:
China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2's Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, How China Fights and associated podcast, and more!

Russia Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics, our How Russia Fights 2.0 post and associated podcast , and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document
Four Models of the Post-COVID World
The Future Operational Environment: The Four Worlds of 2035-2050

Task Force Wolf, Task Force Wolf, Redux and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez

Alternate Futures 2050: A Collection of Fictional Wartime Vignettes, by LTC Steve Speece

The Battle of Rioni River Valley: A Story of Future Warfare in 2030, by MAJ James P. Micciche

Kryptós, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Katherine Hathaway

Fifth Generation Combat: SubTerranean Ops in Singapore, by the Radio Research Group

Weaponized Information: One Possible Vignette and Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes

Two Vignettes: How Might Combat Operations be Different under the Information Joint Function? by proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Christopher Paul

Insights from Army Mad Scientist’s Back to the Future Conference

Announcement:  AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — Our Sister Service partners in the U.S. Air Force (USAF) are proud to present the Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, published by Headquarters Air Force A5/7 (aka Air Force Futures). This report is the USAF’s analogue to the U.S. Army Futures Command’s AFC Pamphlet 525-2, Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050.

The AFGFR highlights four future operating environments and major implications for the future force. To bring these operating environments to life, Army Mad Scientist is partnering with the Air Force Futures’ Foresight Team to conduct the AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — based on the report’s four futures and the exploration of the Joint Functions.  We are seeking vignettes with characters that make the future operating environments and associated Joint Functions within come to life!

The AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest is open to all — anyone can submit an entry.  Entries should be between 1500-2500 words in length, and are due NLT 01 September 2023.  To learn more about the contest and how to submit your entry(ies), click >>>> here <<<< and read the contest flyer!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Mad Scientist is an Army initiative and Community of Action that continually explores the Operational Environment and the changing character of warfare. We connect the intellect of the Nation to the Army and serve as an on-ramp for academia, industry, and other parts of the Government to share their ideas and innovations. Our latest episode of The Convergence podcast features "rock star" proclaimed Mad Scientists — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — discussing the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development, relative to our competitors and adversaries — Enjoy!] 

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC.  Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.

Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. 

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community,  and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government. 

Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart,  The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council, U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services. 

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development relative to our competitors and adversaries.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• The brain sciences are highly dependent on interaction with other sciences and disciplines– social sciences, law, humanities, etc. – as well as ethics and philosophy. We need to understand that an “asymmetry in ethics” exists, where what is prohibited by one society, may be permitted and pursued by others.

• You can’t do effective brain science without convergence and breaking down silos. It’s the convergence that enables and force multiplies the brain sciencesto be used in national security, intelligence, and defense milieu.

• We need to be looking at bolder, moonshot ideas using the AI and Neuro Science communities. The first time these communities came together, during the Synapse project through DARPA, neural nets were created.

• You cannot do neurocognitive science and actualize these ideas into reality without big dataand machine learning. These allow you to take capabilities on a variety of scales and integrate them to create systems of systems to attain functional structural holism.

• ChatGPTand mapping the human genome are just the beginning. We need to continue to innovate in this space to keep pace with our adversaries and competitors to help ensure peaceful global security.

• Drs. Giordano and Canton believe we may be behind our competitors and adversariesin various Neuro-AI areas, and believe the best way to boost our innovation is to reach out to the collective intellect of the Nation to come together and solve this problem in a unified way. They are actively encouraging listeners to reach out to them and start working on solutions!

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 29, 2023, when we’ll talk with John “Grant” Rafter about Air Force Futures‘ mission, the recently published Air Force Global Futures Report: Joint Functions in 2040, and the associated AFGFR Vignette Writing Contest — seeking to crowdsource engaging, plot-driven stories that illustrate a scenario from one of the many futures described in the AFGFR.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related posts:

Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DOD and its associated report from the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (DEVCOM) Chemical Biological Center 

Universal Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Master Sergeant Greg A. McGowan 

China’s Brain Trust: Will the U.S. Have the Nerve to Compete? by Dr. James Giordano, as well as his Neuroscience, Neurotechnology, and the Future of War and Neuroscience and the Weapons of War podcasts, hosted by our colleagues at the Modern Warfare Institute 

Linking Brains to Machines, and Use of Neurotechnology to the Cultural and Ethical Perspectives of the Current Global Stage and Designer Genes: Made in China? by Dr. James Giordano and Joseph DeFranco  

Battle of the Brain 

Connected Warfare by COL James K. Greer (USA-Ret.) 

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast, with Chatty Cathy, an instance of ChatGPT by OpenAI 

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari 

Ethics, Morals, and Legal Implications; Ethical Dilemmas of Future Warfare; and The Ethics and the Future of War panel discussion, facilitated by LTG Jim Dubik (USA-Ret.) 

… watch proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Alexander Kott‘s presentation The Network is the Robot, presented at the Mad Scientist Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, & Autonomy: Visioning Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, at the Georgia Tech Research Institute, 8-9 March 2017, in Atlanta, Georgia. 

… and see proclaimed Mad Scientist Hank Greely‘s presentation on Future Legal and Ethical Implications of Bio Technology from the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference, at SRI International, 8-9 March 2018 in Menlo Park, California. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

In today’s post and podcast, we feature the winning submission from our Back to the Future Writing Contest — Task Force Wolf — as a short audiobook and then interview its author — proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez — about his inspiration for the story, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and why we should be experimenting with these commercially-available capabilities — Enjoy!]

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LTC Daniel Gomez currently serves in the U.S. Army Reserve as an Instructor of Innovation and Creativity at Joint Special Operations University, United States Special Operations Command. During his twenty years in service, LTC Gomez served two combat tours in Iraq, two Special Operations deployments to the Pacific Theater, and five years as an instructor, scenario designer, and course manager at the United States Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School. LTC Gomez is the CEO of First Person Xperience LLC, an education and training company focused on teaching Creativity, Adaptability, and Human Dynamics to National Defense Professionals.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist asks proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez about his inspiration for his winning submission Task Force Wolf, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and why we should be experimenting with these commercially-available capabilities.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• In LTC Gomez’s story, JTF Wolf is designed to track and interrupt illicit operations in Eurasia, specifically Turkey and its northern neighbors. His re-imagined geo-political structure describes the New Soviet Union and T’China(Taiwan re-joined with mainland China) as global powers using irregular and liminal warfare, regionally and internationally.

• Non-state actorshave employed mobile video games, ubiquitous connectivity, and cryptocurrency to conduct multi-domain, synchronized operations across multiple geospatial regions while operating as independent and self-sustained, but distributed, joint teams. Built-in communications software was leveraged for real-time translation of over 100 different languages.
  
  
• These teams were able to access home camera video feeds and manipulate them with deepfakes(Deep-Snapping) and access car toll passes to search for less than reputable locations for blackmail (Spot-Blowing) to charge victims monthly fees to support their illicit business. They identified and exploited extremely vulnerable persons (Husking) to activate burner satellite phones that ran one-time use scripts to issue blackmail statements and then received payment in cryptocurrency that was washed in a cash-out marketplace.

• LTC Gomez believes that many technologies, their convergences, and associated Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) are being ignored or neglected by the defense community.  He wrote Task Force Wolf to highlight how these new technologies could be converged and implemented in unforeseen ways, affecting global security.
  
  
• LTC Gomez highlighted several hypothetical vulnerabilities to unarmed operators in permissive or semi-permissive environments who aren’t being targeted for kinetic effects, but are being attacked in other ways that significantly degrade their ability to conduct operations or deny them altogether.

• Many of the TTPs featured in the story were inspired by real capabilities from current video games and technology used by the author.They reflect potential ways current militaries could operate or wish to operate (real-time communications and translation, distributed teams across varying time zones, multi-domain operations) via extant capabilities from commercial entities, outside of conventional military acquisition supply chains.

• LTC Gomez makes the convincing case for BLUFOR teams experimenting with non-DoD technologies to explore their potential integration into military practice, fail in a safe environment, and exploit the commercial sector’s rapid and responsive development and acquisition cycles.
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 15, 2023, when we’ll talk with the Mad Scientist James Gang — Dr. James Giordano
and Dr. James Canton — two of our finest proclaimed Mad Scientists addressing the convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, its impact on future warfare, and where the U.S. falls short in technology development relative to our competitors/adversaries.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Virtual Nations: An Emerging Supranational Cyber Trend, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy

Gaming Information Dominance and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by Raechel Melling

What the Joint Force can learn from K-Pop “Stans” by Matthew Ader

Extremism on the Horizon: The Challenges of VEO Innovation, by Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin

Hybrid Threats and Liminal Warfare and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. David Kilcullen

The Classified Mind – The Cyber Pearl Harbor of 2034, by proclaimed Mad Scientist  Dr. Jan Kallberg

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated content and videos 

In It to Win It: Competition, Crisis, & Conflict

Is Ours a Nation at War? U.S. National Security in an Evolved — and Evolving — Operational Environment and the comprehensive publication from which it was excerpted — Is Ours a Nation at War? Proceedings for the TRADOC G-2 2021 “Role of America’s Army in National Defense, 2021-2030” Campaign of Learning, published by our colleagues at the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

“The Convergence of AI, robotics, and cyber-warfare could create new and highly complex military capabilities such as autonomous weapons systems that can make decisions in real time” — ChatGPT

[Editor’s Note:  As described in the previous episode of The Convergence podcast, large language models like ChatGPT — democratizing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) — will potentially revolutionize (and disrupt!) how people around the globe access, process, and generate information from the wealth of online data — per TechCrunch, “estimated at 97 zettabytes (10²¹ bytes) created or replicated in 2022 alone!  To put that number into perspective, to store 97 zettabytes on 1 terabyte hard disks, you’d have to stack the disks 27 million times—equal to roughly 15 round trips between the Earth and the Moon.”  Big Data indeed!  As the Internet transformed our lives some three decades ago, allowing us to harness and access this mass of online information, so too will democratized AI transform and augment how we learn, work, create, and — most importantly to the U.S. Army — compete and fight… and not just in the Cyber Domain!

Our adversaries understand the game-changing power of AI.  President Vladimir Putin virtually addressed over one million Russian school children and teachers at 16,000 schools on September 1, 2017, stating,  “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind.  It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict.  Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”  Just as ominously, in addressing the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on October 16, 2022, China’s President Xi Jinping stated that quickly elevating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to a world-class army is a strategic requirement, and that China would adhere to the integrated development of the PLA through the concept of “three-izations” (三化) — mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization — the latter being China’s concept for integrating AI’s machine speed and processing power to military planning, operational command, and decision support.  Xi further stated that these three-izations are not to be achieved in stages but are to be pursued simultaneously and in parallel.  

Recognizing that the AI Age is now upon us, the latest episode of The Convergence podcast features our interview with Chatty Cathy, an instance of ChatGPT by OpenAI, discussing the future of warfare, “her” thoughts on technology trends, and her responses to several questions from our Mad Scientist Community of Action — Read on!]

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OpenAI‘s ChatGPT is a large language model that is trained to follow an instruction in a text prompt and provide a detailed response.  It was trained using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), using supervised fine-tuning:  human AI trainers provided conversations in which they played both sides—the user and an AI assistant. OpenAI gave the trainers access to model-written suggestions to help them compose their responses. OpenAI mixed this new dialogue dataset with the InstructGPT dataset, which was transformed into a dialogue format. 

Army Mad Scientist’s instance of ChatGPT was christened Chatty Cathy.  When asked for a self-portrait, Chatty Cathy responded, “As an AI language model, I am an abstract entity that exists in the digital realm. While I don’t have a physical form, an artistic interpretation of myself could be depicted as a glowing orb or a network of interconnected nodes and circuits, representing the flow of information and knowledge. This visual representation could incorporate elements of technology, such as circuit patterns or binary code, to symbolize the computational nature of my existence. However, it’s important to note that this is merely a creative interpretation, as my true nature as an AI is purely textual and conceptual.” This deprecating self-description belies the fact that ChatGPT has been the fastest growing consumer product in history.

In the latest episode of The Convergence, Army Mad Scientist asks Chatty Cathy about the future of warfare, “her” thoughts on technology trends, and her responses to several questions from our Mad Scientist Community of Action.  We submitted our queries via text input and then fed her text responses into LOVO‘s AI Voice Generator and Text to Speech function to yield her curious, not-quite Received Pronunciation British accent.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

• ChatGPT 3.5 is a large language model created by OpenAI and designed to simulate human-like language abilities.The system is trained on a vast corpus of text data which includes books, articles, and webpages and allows the AI to answer in coherent and human-like text responses.  The system allows for continuous conversation, so the user can reference previous answers, or ask follow-up questions, and ChatGPT will stay engaged and follow along.

• ChatGPT is at its best when it synthesizes large amounts of dataon complex subjects, summarizes important ideas, and communicates them in plain and understandable language.
• Another strength lies in the speed in which it can deliver a vast amount of information. If prompted to write an article or proposal, it can often return a usable solution in a matter of seconds, requiring the user to only polish it into a finished product. This can save an exceptional amount of time for writers, editors, and creators.

• Chatty Cathy’s observations on the future of warfare and the Operational Environment include:
  • The battlefield of 2050 will be highly digitized, networked, and unpredictable. Soldiers will have to rely heavily on AI, unmanned systems, and robotics. They will need to have a broad range of skills and competencies to succeed. The proliferation of sensors, data analytics, and other advanced technologies will likely provide Soldiers unprecedented situational awareness and decision-making capability.
  • Urban environments will become increasingly important as larger swaths of the global population flock to cities.This presents challenges for Soldiers who will have to be highly adaptable and capable of operating in complex terrain.
  • Cyber warfare and information operations will also likely be critical components of any future conflict, and as artificial intelligence continues to evolve and become more sophisticated, it is likely to play a central role. Cyber-attacks are becoming increasingly common and sophisticated, and the ability to launch successful attacks will become an important factor in future warfare.
• However, on broader and more open-ended inquiries, ChatGPT can be non-committal and over-general in its responses. It’s unable to take a firm stance on many military-themed topics and cites the difficulty inherent in answering questions about the future.It can often be repetitive to a fault when prefacing its responses with caveats.

• Navigating the conversation requires critical thinking and a fair amount of due diligence on the part of the user.ChatGPT can confidently deliver an incorrect response to a question, thus putting the onus on the user to verify the information received.

• A large language model like ChatGPT tailored to a certain business, sector, or company (e.g., the U.S. Army)could be trained on a specific data set and used to create policy, guidance, assessments, or even doctrine.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on June 1, 2023, when we feature the winning submission from our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  writing contest — Task Force Wolf — as an audiobook and then interview its author, proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez, about his inspiration for the story, the impact of democratized technology and ubiquitous connectivity on the future of warfare, and his views on the National Security Community’s response to these emerging threats.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast with LTC Robert Solano

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas

The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi

Bias and Machine Learning

An Appropriate Level of Trust…

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note: Large language models like ChatGPT — democratizing the power of artificial intelligence — have rocked industry and academia with their potential to revolutionize how humans process vast quantities of information and generate content. Our Federal Government, including the Department of Defense and its

constituent Services, will similarly be transformed as myriad processes begin to harness this capability to augment traditionally human endeavors. But this sea change will require work force flexibility and a willingness to learn and adapt to new ways of accomplishing mission requirements. Changing culture is hard…

Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, featuring LTC Robert Solano, Commander of the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) at Boeing in Mesa, Arizona, discussing what DCMA does, how language models like ChatGPT can help the Army and the Nation’s industrial base work together, and some of the challenges and barriers these language models may face when it comes to wide-spread adoption in the Department of Defense (DoD) — Enjoy!]

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LTC Robert Solano is an accomplished Army officer and the Commander of the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) at Boeing in Mesa, Arizona. With 19 years of experience under his belt, LTC Solano has a passion for delivering quality aircraft and parts to support Warfighters while making a difference in the acquisition community. As a senior Army Aviator and Acquisition Corps officer with multiple combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, LTC Solano has honed his skills in organizational leadership, program management, and government contracting. As an engineer, he is skilled in artificial intelligence, augmented reality, aviation systems, and advanced weapons systems development. His impressive career has taken him to work at the Army Artificial Intelligence Integration Center, Palantir

Technologies, U.S. Special Operations Command, and other procurement and aviation units. LTC Solano holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Mechanical Engineering from the United States Military Academy at West Point, a Master’s Degree in Aerospace Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology, and a Master’s Certificate in Aviation Doctoral Studies (ABD) from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

In today’s podcast, LTC Solano discusses what DCMA does, how language models like ChatGPT can help the Army and the Nation’s industrial base work together, and some of the challenges and barriers these language models may face when it comes to wide- spread adoption in the DoD. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

The Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) has over 11,000 personnel throughout the

world. These personnel are on the factory floors, looking over the shoulders of the contractors who are designing and manufacturing materiel for the warfighter. They ensure end items are built to standard, at cost, and delivered on time.

ChatGPT, and other large language models, are artificial intelligence (AI) programs that are fed a large body of data (books, Tweets, articles, etc.) from which they can derive meaning and draw conclusions.

For example, you can ask ChatGPT, “Why is the sky blue?” and it will respond

with the science behind light refracting through the atmosphere. These programs are so advanced that you can even follow up your original question by asking the system to elaborate in simpler terms. The system will remember what it told you and use simpler language and more illustrative analogies to further explain its responses.

Large language models can be used to craft arguments for articles, blog posts, academic papers, and even the questions for this podcast. They are much more than just a data aggregator, as they are able to summarize important points; interpret policy, doctrine, or legal terminology; create original proposals; and communicate clearly with proper formatting, grammar, and tone.

Using large language models can significantly increase productivity for a variety of jobs, skillsets, and Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs). ChatGPT, for example, can ease the burden for analysts, writers, contracting officers, and others by quickly completing certain tasks, freeing up the  individual to do things that humans do best. 

These systems are user-friendly consumer products that don’t require any technical

skill to operate (no special coding, programming, or AI knowledge is needed). Their interface responds to natural language inputs and replies in plain and understandable text. ChatGPT has been the fastest growing consumer product in history.

Contracting is a vital component of acquisition, logistics, and support services for the Army. The contracting process involves industry responding to government requests for proposals, crafting submissions to specific performance work statement language, and competitive proposal evaluations. Using large language models could exponentially improve productivity for small businesses trying to work with the government who don’t have the same resources that larger defense contractors do — lowering the barrier for entry, leveling the playing field, and allowing more non-traditional vendors to compete.

However, this may lead to an “arms race” where companies with the best large language model or AI system are marginalizing the competition and small businesses are once again facing a substantial barrier instead of the Government getting the best value. 

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 18 May 2023 where we interview “Chatty Cathy” (an instantiation of ChatGPT) about the future of warfare, how our adversaries are planning to compete and win in the operational environment, and how emergent technologies could converge to provide new capabilities!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Crossing the Valley of Death for Innovation and associated podcast, with Trish Martinelli and David Schiff

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025: A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

Algorithms of Armageddon and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the

U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

General Robert Brown (USA-Ret.) is an experienced commander who has led at every level, from platoon through Army Service Component Command. Serving as Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific, General Brown led the Army’s largest service component command responsible for 106,000 Soldiers across the Indo-Pacific Region before his September 2019 retirement.

General Brown is a 1981 graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, where he was commissioned as an Infantry Second Lieutenant. His assignments took him across the globe including deployments in support of Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, Operation Joint Forge in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and two combat deployments in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Before U.S. Army Pacific, he commanded the U.S. Army Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas; I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington; and the U.S. Army Maneuver Center of Excellence and Fort Benning, Georgia.

He also served as Chief of Staff for U.S. Army Europe; Deputy Commanding General for the 25th Infantry Division; Commander, 1st Brigade (Stryker) 25th Infantry Division; Commander, 2nd Battalion 5th Cavalry, 1st Cavalry Division; the Joint Staff, J-8; Army Staff, Strategy and War Plans Division G3/5/7 in the Pentagon; Aide-de-Camp, Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army; Executive Officer to Commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Assistant Professor and Deputy Director, Center for Enhanced Performance, West Point; and Infantry Assignment Officer, Human Resources Command.

General Brown holds a Bachelor of Science from the United States Military Academy, a Master of Education from the University of Virginia, and a Master of Science in National Security and Strategic Studies (Distinguished Graduate) from the National Defense University.

General Brown retired after more than 38 years of service. He was a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) before becoming President and CEO in October 2021.

In today’s podcast, General Brown discusses how the Army can reach the next generation of Americans, the creation of Multi-Domain Task Forces, challenges in the Pacific AOR, and the importance of the Human Dimension. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

• AUSA, like many other thought-leading organizations, has found itself needing to adjust to changing demographicsand has focused its outreach on connecting the Army with the community. Army bases have become heavily fortified in the post-9/11 environment, making it more difficult to reach that next generation of potential recruits. With “community connectors” and “community partners,” AUSA has the opportunity to tell the Army story and make those critical links.

• The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is more aggressive nowthan in the last several decades. Relying on his experience as the Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), GEN Brown believes the combination of an aggressive and over-confident CCP could be dangerous and potentially lead to accidental conflict.

• In the Indo-Pacific, it will be a Joint fight andevery domain matters. China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) is powerful and can repel U.S. Forces at significant distance. To combat this A2/AD problem, GEN Brown and others created the Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF)– a small maneuver force that could get inside that A2/AD bubble and persistently occupy land – enabling air and maritime assets to enter the fight.

• Allies and partners are key. Training and practicing together, as a Joint force, with our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific will be vital to preparing for and deterring potential conflictwith adversaries.

• People are our advantageand analyzing the human dimension has unearthed some latent truths. Training, education, and Leader development will need to produce individuals who thrive in ambiguity and chaos and the next generation of Soldiers must be empowered.

• Resilience can be built.With ubiquitous connectivity through social media, failures are rarely kept private. Responding to failure is a crucial component of building resilience and a critical part of success. Providing a purpose, goals, and spiritual foundation for the squad will help them develop the characteristics necessary to respond positively to failure and grow resilience within their unit.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 27 April 2023!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity

The Inexorable Role of Demographics and Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Most Consequential Adversaries and associated podcast, with GEN Charles A. Flynn

How China Fights and associated podcast

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

Competition in 2035: Anticipating Chinese Exploitation of Operational Environments

Synchronizing Modernization across the Army and associated podcast, with GEN Gary M. Brito

The Secret Sauce of America’s Army and associated podcast, with GEN Paul E. Funk II (USA-Ret.)

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

New Skills Required to Compete & Win in the Future Operational Environment 

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce by Sarah L. Sladek

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

General Gary M. Brito assumed duties as the 18th Commanding General, United States Army TRADOC, on September 8, 2022.  He is responsible for building and sustaining a highly trained, disciplined, and fit Army by acquiring the best people, training the most lethal Soldiers, developing the most professional leaders, guiding the Army’s culture, and shaping the future force. 

In today’s podcast, General Brito discusses synchronizing modernization across the Army, critical aspects of modernization that are crucial to shaping the fighting force , and how changes in the Operational Environment affect this process.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion with General Brito: 

• TRADOCis “that first layer of bricks” in building readiness for the Army.  In building this foundation, TRADOC acquires the very best people, trains the most lethal Soldiers, and develops the most professional Leaders. TRADOC also provides that connective tissue that guides Army culture and shapes the future force.

• Modernization ismore than materiel and the Soldier is the centerpiece. Technology does not replace them, but rather is enabled by them. This scales to the squad, platoon, company, battalion, and beyond, to give the Army the overmatch needed to contest our adversaries.

• Integration and synchronization across the entireDOTMLPF-P (Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and education, Personnel, Facilities, and Policy) spectrum of capabilities is one of TRADOC’s major responsibilities.  Identifying the doctrine associated with a future tank or next generation aircraft has to occur at the earliest stages of acquisition, in coordination with other organizations like the Army Staff, Army Futures Command, FORSCOM, the Joint Force, and others.

• It’s vital that TRADOC takes the lessons learnedfrom current conflicts in Eastern Europe and elsewhere and feed them into how we train our Soldiers.  It is also important to measure the impacts of new technology and materiel in a multi-domain operation. All of this new knowledge needs to be infused into the accessions process and Professional Military Education.

• Balancing training, readiness, personnel, and modernization is a delicate and difficult balance in which all components need to be synchronized. It’s important to weave Soldier touchpoints into the acquisition process at specific milestones for user feedback. With a good plan and coordination, the Army can modernize and test equipment, while at the same time train and build readiness.

• Coordination between TRADOC and theother Army Commands is accomplished through leadership, communication, and transparency.  There is no light between Commanders of the Army Commands –they have a shared understanding of their roles within the larger Army effort. One team, one fight!

• While we may not get modernization completely right — and over the last 20 years we’ve gotten some of our assessments wrong — we must have flexibility and versatility built into our processes.  We can adapt to new technology and pivot within our acquisition system, butif we incorrectly develop our Leaders, it will take years to recover.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 23 March 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post, mark your calendars now to watch General Brito’s “Fireside Chat” with Lieutenant General(R) Leslie Smith on “Synchronizing Army Modernization” at the AUSA Global Force Symposium in Huntsville, AL, on 28 March 2023 at 1300 CDT / 1400 EDT — for more information, click here.

…in the meantime, check out the following related content:

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel , by Ian Sullivan

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts, with Brent L. Sterling, and associated podcast

Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future by Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) and its associated podcast

New Skills Required to Compete & Win in the Future Operational Environment 

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

TRADOC 2028

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

Future Jobs and Skillsets

U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity

The Inexorable Role of Demographics by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce by Sarah L. Sladek

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Joanna Siekiera is an international lawyer and Doctor of Social Sciences in public policy sciences. She studied under a New Zealand Government scholarship at the Victoria University in Wellington. Her specialization is legal and political relations in the South Pacific, and the law of armed conflict. She is prodigious author, having written a book, co-authored three monographs, over 90 scientific publications in several languages, and over 40 legal analyses.

In today’s podcast, we explore the legal aspects of Multi-Domain Operations and the protection of civilians, what we can learn from the on-going war in Ukraine as it pertains to U.S. policy and legal implications, and her concerns about security and policy in the Indo-Pacific.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview: 

• Dr. Siekiera’s goal is to advise commanders on how to lawfully accomplish their military aims by understanding legal possibilities.

• Law is important, both as a discipline and within the context of society.  Societal and cultural context help us to accurately analyze a conflict and understand the initial ideas and values that send countries to war, in order to respond appropriately and proportionally.

• There are no ethics in international law – one country’s system of values may not translate to another, creating differences in approaches to the law of armed conflict.  Context and history can teach us why countries may see things differently and help to predict further actions.

• Dr. Siekiera uses the terms “East” and “West” not to divide but to make people aware that the two are not the same.  Assuming that an adversary shares your cultural values is a dangerous and misleading bias —  mirror-imaging — that threatens security.  Alliances between nations are maintained when a shared identity is fostered.

• The legal aspects of Multi-Domain Operations and the protection of civilians are not being treated with the requisite importance.  Although international laws exist to protect civilians in armed conflicts, a nation that does not hold the same values cannot be relied upon to comply with these otherwise widely accepted humanitarian laws.  This must be recognized when planning all aspects  of military operations.

• China – the biggest threat not only to western civilization but to NATO – slowly influences economic and societal changes in surrounding nations, quietly creating a military threat decades before it is recognized.  Although NATO falls outside the Indo-Pacific region, China is still a threat through its influence in nearby nations.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 9 March 2023 when we’ll discuss synchronizing modernization efforts across the U.S. Army with  GEN Gary Brito, Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)! 

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related TRADOC G-2 and Mad Scientist content:

China Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize China weekly topics, ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and more!

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

How China Fights and associated podcast

Your Adversary is Rational, Just Not the Way You Want Them to Be  by LTC Nathan Colvin

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts, with Brent L. Sterling, and associated podcast

Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future by Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army

China: Building Regional Hegemony and China 2049: The Flight of a Particle Board Dragon, the comprehensive report from which this post was excerpted

The Most Consequential Adversaries and associated podcast, with GEN Charles A. Flynn

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

Competition in 2035: Anticipating Chinese Exploitation of Operational Environments

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

John Bicknell founded More Cowbell Unlimited to help America remain a beacon of hope and strength on the world stage. America must adopt Process Dominance as a core capability in order to innovate and survive in the Information Age.  His vision is for process technologies to be as ubiquitous as processes are.  John is a national security thought leader and passionate analytics visionary.  He has written extensively on national security matters related to information warfare, critical infrastructure defense, and space situational awareness.  John leads software and business development efforts for More Cowbell Unlimited. 

Before retiring from the United States Marine Corps in 2010 as a Lieutenant Colonel, John served worldwide, most notably in Afghanistan and at the Pentagon.  He led enterprise-level process intensive human resources supply chain projects designed to discover inefficiencies, architect solutions, and re-purpose manpower savings. In his corporate career, he operationalized an Analytics Center of Excellence for a large EdTech firm, among other accomplishments.

John is a member of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS) and InfraGard. He is also Vice President for the Information Professionals Association and host of The Cognitive Crucible podcast. His Master’s degree from the Naval Postgraduate School emphasizes econometrics and operations research. John lives with his family in the Pacific Northwest.

In today’s podcast, we explore complex systems, entropy, how data can be turned into action, and empowering Soldiers to make better and faster battlefield decisions.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• More Cowbell Unlimited is a decision-support firm helping organizations make better, faster, data-driven decisions through process mining — a method that illuminates where there are inefficiencies in a process and turns data into action. It can be used to process complex systems, such as modeling ecosystems of satellites in the geostationary orbital regime for the U.S. Space Force.

• Complexity is here to stay. Complex systems have characteristics that are nonlinear and difficult to predict – much like the future battlefield. Bicknell has developed a powerful way of examining complex systems by synthesizing different theories from various prominent thinkers, like measuring the entropy in complex systems using Claude Shannon’s Information Theory.

• W. Ross Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety states that for a system to maintain itself, it must grapple with the variety of activities that it encounters and have the requisite variety of responses to adapt to its surrounding environments. More Cowbell Unlimited’s technique helps model the variety of activities within the system to help understand how they are changing and identify moments when a system may be vulnerable.

• Scaled down to the tactical edge, this application can help a Company Commander achieve coup d’œil — the ability to assess what is happening within the grid squares of their area of operations in a “stroke of an eye.”  Maintaining situational awareness and understanding the shifting variety of activities within those grid squares can inform Commanders’ decision making and grant them information advantage over an adversary.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 23 February 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out:

John Bicknell‘s The Cognitive Crucible podcast

More Cowbell Unlimited‘s Information Advantage paper

… as well as the following Mad Scientist related content:

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Inderpal Bhandari

Space: Challenges and Opportunities

Making Quick Decisions, Quicker! and associate podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, recorded on location at I/ITSEC 2022, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, Florida.  Co-hosts Luke Shabro and Matt Santaspirt spoke with Dr. Maria Kozhevnikov about non-relaxing meditative states, enhanced cognition, the relationship between video games and reaching that enhanced cognitive state, and the associated ramifications for Army training — Enjoy!]

[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]

Maria Kozhevnikov, Associate Professor of Psychology at the National University of Singapore and Visiting Associate Professor of Radiology at Harvard Medical School, is a cognitive neuroscientist with an interest in enhancing human cognition and understanding the potential of the human mind.  Her research uses modern technology, such as augmented, virtual, and mixed reality (AR/VR/MR), as well as ancient meditative techniques.  The following bullet points highlight key insights gleaned from our interview with Dr. Kozhevnikov: 

• Meditation is a great technique to induce relaxation and reduce stress, but there are many different kinds of meditation. To enhance cognitive capacity, a type of meditation can be used to induce stress to an individual in order for them to learn from it and combat it in a controlled environment.

• Meditation which is arousal-based or “good stress”-based will deliver stress that the individual can handle while still focusing on and completing the task at hand.This type of meditation is more suited to Soldiers on the battlefield who will be operating in austere environments with external factors competing for their focus.

• Arousal-based meditation releases adrenaline into the blood stream(as opposed to cortisol being released from “bad stress”).  Adrenaline triggers the body’s “fight or flight” response, which in turn amplifies cognitive and mental resources to meet the demand of the task at hand.

• People process information about the space around them in two ways: allocentric and egocentric. Allocentric processing involves an individual interpreting objects in space as they relate to other objects in space, while egocentric processing involves an individual interpreting objects in space as they relate to their own body. This distinction is important because it identifies two different ways in which learning and training occurs. It’s very important for a pilot to be egocentric while it’s important for an air traffic controller to be allocentric. Different job types require different learning methods.

• Game-based training does not necessarily have to be immersive or high fidelity to effectively train the mind.Two-dimensional video games have been shown to be just as effective as high fidelity, completely immersive, 3D first-person games, as long as the user feels there is a real threat to them or their avatar. The most important aspect is to simulate a survival-type of situation and cause the body to believe there is an actual danger to the player.  Generating realistic stress can enhance the overall effectiveness of Soldier training and mission rehearsal.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 09 February 2023! 

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content:

A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle

It’s All In Your Head: How The Brain Makes Better Soldiers and associated podcast, with Zach Schonbrun

Making Quick Decisions, Quicker! and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated

The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives and associated podcast, with Cathy Hackl

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by then LTC Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

Back to the Future Writing Contest:  Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for harvesting ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  Entries should address one of the suggested topics listed here.  Entries will be accepted in two formats:

• A written essay (no more than 1500 words, please!)

• A tweet @ArmyMadSci using #MadSciBacktotheFuture

We will pick a winner from each of these two formats! Contest Winners will be proclaimed official Mad Scientists and be featured here in the Mad Scientist Laboratory.  Semi-finalists of merit will also be published!

This contest is open to any and every one — multiple submissions are encouraged!

DEADLINE:  All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern this Friday, January 13, 2023!

Questions?  Send us an eMail at:  [email protected]

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

[Editor’s Note:  Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, recorded on location at I/ITSEC 2022, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, Florida.  Co-hosts  Luke Shabro and Matt Santaspirt spoke with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jenny McArdle from the Center for a New American Security, Cmdr. Paul Grøstad from NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and Whitney McNamara from Beacon Global Strategies, about emerging technologies and how they can better prepare us for both competition and conflict — Enjoy!]

Jennifer McArdle serves as an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Center for a New American Security’s defense program and wargaming lab and as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Joint Special Operations University.  A former professor, Ms. McArdle has served on Congressman Langevin’s cyber advisory committee and as an expert member of a NATO technical group that developed cyber effects for the military alliance’s mission and campaign simulations. Ms. McArdle is a PhD candidate at King’s College London in War Studies, is the recipient of the RADM Fred Lewis (I/ITSEC) doctoral scholarship in modeling and simulation, and is a Certified Modeling and Simulation Professional (CMSP). She is a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations.  Ms. McArdle is also a proclaimed Mad Scientist, having frequently contributed to the Mad Scientist Laboratory blog site and The Convergence podcast.

Cmdr. Paul Grøstad  is Deputy Branch Head for Concept Development at NATO ACT.  A Royal Norwegian Navy officer with 29 years experience in Signals, C4ISR, and Cyber Operations, Cmdr. Grøstad is currently researching Cognitive Warfare, Malign Influence, the Information Environment, and Cognitive Effects. He has extensive international experience from serving in multiple positions at different levels of the NATO command structure.  A Norwegian Naval Academy and Joint Command and Staff College graduate, he holds a Master’s degree in military studies from the Norwegian Defence University College and a Bachelor’s degree in Information Science from the University of Bergen.  Cmdr. Grøstad is a certified PRINCE2 Practitioner.

Whitney McNamara is an Associate Vice President at Beacon Global Strategies and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.  She is also currently supporting the Atlantic Council’s Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption, where she is the lead author on assessing critical technologies and their barriers to innovation in the Department.  She previously served on the Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Board (DIB), whose mission is to provide the Secretary of Defense, Deputy Secretary of Defense, and other senior leaders across the DoD with independent advice and recommendations on emerging technologies and innovative approaches that the Department should adopt to ensure U.S. technological and military dominance.  Ms. McNamara is a former National Security Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and worked in the Political-Military Bureau at the Department of State and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy.  She received her M.A. in Strategic Studies and International Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies where she was a Bradley Fellow and a Presidential Management Fellowship Finalist.

In today’s podcast, our panel of experts address emerging technologies and how they can better prepare us for both competition and conflict.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• The biggest difference in the most recent National Defense Strategy (NDS) is that China is identified as our most consequential strategic competitor, despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China, unlike Russia, has the global reach and the capability to reorder the global system, making China the more existential threat. The central premise of the NDS is how to sustain deterrence against China.
• China is conducting holistic strategies to achieve their objectives, making it necessary for DoD’s strategies to be holistic in nature as well. DoD has identified the need for “integrated deterrence” – seamlessly working across warfighting domains and bringing in other instruments of US national power. “Campaigning” is the way DoD plans to carry out integrated deterrence.
• The NDS discusses the role of technology in escalation dynamics, especially in the Cyber and Space Domains, and innovation in national security. It is necessary to figure out how to support and cooperate with our diverse network of research institutions and tech industry to maintain our technological edge.
• The NATO Strategic Concept, updated every 10 years, reinforces the key purpose of the Alliance – collective defense. The recent concept recognizes Russiaas a threat to Alliance security, a dramatic shift in the language previously used. China remains a challenge for the Alliance, as its malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security. However, NATO remains open to constructive engagement with China, including building reciprocal transparency, with a view to safeguarding the Alliance’s security interests. NATO remains committed to working together responsibly, as Allies, to address the systemic challenges posed by China to Euro-Atlantic security and ensure NATO’s enduring ability to guarantee the defense and security of the Alliance.
• The NATO Strategic Concept identified emerging disruptive technology as a growing challenge that is altering the character of conflict and impacting success on the battlefield. Although the concept does not identify any single technology, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomy, and Big Dataare seen as the most immediate technologies that can be exploited right now.
• “All but war is simulation.” Simulationis integral to both deterrence and readiness. The type of simulation needed depends on the end goal. Simulations can be live, virtual, or constructive:

Live– Real people operating real platforms in a simulated environment.

Virtual– Real people operating a simulated system in a simulated environment.

Constructive– Synthetic entities operating a simulated system in a simulated environment.

• Virtual and constructive simulations is where synthetic environments come in. Synthetic environments are crucial to thinking about the future of competition and conflict and simulating multi-domain operations.  The cognitive (i.e., human) dimensionis where decisions are made and wars are won and lost. The military often struggles with simulating the human elements of warfare.
• Synthetic environmentsare very well suited to promoting integrated deterrence because they allow cross department collaboration and information sharing, show actions are logically linked, provide a collaborative environment to simulate campaigning, and wargame decisions to develop best practices. A synthetic environment can be a holistic platform that allows DoD to game out the complexity it is trying to manage.
• People tend to describe the metaverse as a series of interconnected virtual worlds that afford their users a sense of agency and presence — the DoD has used this concept for decades. What’s new is that the commercial world is now paying attention, creating commercial applications and fueling innovation that has implications for defense.
• Cognitive warfare in the metaverse will impact information operations. There is a threat potential that the capabilities of the metaverse will be exploited and weaponized. The more immersive the experience, the more influence potential the experience has.
  
  Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, recorded on location at I/ITSEC in Orlando, Florida.  We’ll be talking with Dr. Maria Kozhevnikov, Associate Professor of Psychology at the National University of Singapore and Visiting Associate Professor of Radiology at Harvard Medical School, about (non-relaxing) meditative states, enhanced cognition, the relationship between video games and reaching that enhanced cognitive state, and much more!

[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, featuring our interview with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jason Sherwin, CEO and Co-Founder of deCervo, discussing the science of quick decision making, how deCervo blends gaming with science to help individuals make the best decisions in high stakes and complex environments, how these technologies have enhanced professional athletes’ performance, and these technologies’ potential for enhancing Soldiers’ performance — Enjoy!]

Jason Sherwin, Ph.D., is a founder and currently serves as CEO of deCervo, a neuroscience tech company he founded with his research partner, Jordan Muraskin, Ph.D.  Since starting in 2014,  deCervo has provided cognitive training programs using neuroimaging and customized phone apps to over 15 Major League Baseball organizations, over 60,000 baseball and softball players worldwide, the umpires of the Major Leagues, and the officials of the National Hockey League.  deCervo has been an Army research grant recipient since 2017 and Sherwin himself has done contract research for the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Army Research Laboratory going back to 2011.  Continuing to apply its novel approach to decision training, deCervo is currently launching apps in law enforcement and tennis training to complement its suite of five other apps for decision training.

• Analyzing quick decision-making is done by providing simple stimuli to people, imaging their response and its speed, and identifying how their brain reacts to different inputs. This can be accomplished by having a subject listen to a song with an unexpected, abrupt key change; not only do brains show a reaction to that unexpected change, but trained musicians’ brains produce a stronger response, as captured via electro-encephalogram (EEG), than a non-musician’s brain.

• deCervo’s apps for baseball players use accuracy measurements to estimate how well the user discriminates between different kinds of pitches.  This approach is an evolution from using EEGs, and shows that non-invasive methods can be just as effective in measuring responses.  Improving athletic prowess on the playing field has direct implications for improving warfighting prowesson the modern battlefield.

• Emotion impacts all decision making, but deliberate decisions are more susceptible to influence from emotionand often require simulations generated by video or AI to produce environments that are closer to real life.  For Soldiers, decisions often need to be deliberate while dealing with fear and strong emotion in dynamic, austere, and potentially lethal environments; training for this kind of decision making requires teaching people how to respond quickly and correctly, despite emotional impacts or inhibition.

• Military decision making can involve simple decisions like target detection, but more often requires the ability to make complex, deliberate decisions.  Using effective human teaming and social sensing can help train for visual search type decisions where Soldiers analyze their own placement and their teammates’ placements and effectively respond as a team.

• Using a deCervo app is like getting the Cliff’s Notes on how to do your job better.  It’s not just about training for better decision making, but also informing users about what making those decisions quickly feels like, what it means to identify the correct response, and what to do next so users trust what the system is trainingthem to do.

• Real-time decision making for military applications could even be supplemented by technology that assists and optimizes the situation for choosing correct responses, andquick decision-making training with such tools can build Soldiers’ trust in the ways these systems assist them.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, recorded on location at I/ITSEC, the world’s largest modeling and simulation conference in Orlando, FL. We’ll be talking with proclaimed Mad Scientist Jenny McArdle from Improbable, Cmdr. Paul Grøstad from NATO ACT, and Whitney McNamara from Beacon Global Strategies about emerging technologies and competition and conflict.

The Army Mad Scientist Initiative is hosting our Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference, November 8th and 9th, at the National Museum of the United States Army.  It is our first in-person conference since 2019!

• The conference will feature world renowned historians, thinkers, innovators, futurists, and industry leaders. We’ll use history to set the foundation for our look into the future to determine what the Operational Environment might look like, what new and unique conditions a Soldier might encounter, and what capabilities they might need — Check out our exciting conference agenda hereand presenter and panelist biographies here !

• You can still attend the event in-person by registering here through Eventbrite — Hurry, space is limited! You must be registered with Eventbrite in order to gain access to the conference.  Museum security will have a list of all individuals registered and will check your name upon entry.

• You can also attend the conference virtually! Everything will be live-streamed through Zoom— you can connect and engage in real time remotely here, beginning at 7:45 am Eastern, Tuesday, 08 November 2022! 

Whether in person or virtually, please plan on joining Army Mad Scientist at our Back to the Future:  Using History to Forecast conference — you’ll be glad you did!

Check out content from previous Army Mad Scientist events on our All Partners Access Network (APAN) Conference page (just click on an event to drill down to explore event agendas, presenter bio’s, presentations, and notes) and YouTube Channel Video Playlists — content from next week’s conference will be similarly archived for future reference!

Back to the Future Writing Contest:  Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for harvesting ideas, thoughts, and concepts from a wide variety of interested individuals, helping to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions.  Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with our Back to the Future Writing Contest.  Entries should address one of the topics’ writing prompts listed here.  Entries will be accepted in two formats:

• 
  A written essay(no more than 1500 words, please!)

• A tweet @ArmyMadSci using #MadSciBacktotheFuture

We will pick a winner from each of these two formats! Contest Winners will be proclaimed official Mad Scientists and be featured here in the Mad Scientist Laboratory.  Semi-finalists of merit will also be published!

This contest is open to any and every one — multiple submissions are encouraged!

DEADLINE:  All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on January 13, 2023!

Looking for additional ideas?  Explore the Mad Scientist Laboratory at: https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil

Questions?  Send us an eMail at:  [email protected]

Inderpal Bhandari rejoined IBM as Global Chief Data Officer in December 2015. In this newly created role, he has leveraged his extensive experience to lead the development of IBM’s data strategy and drive IBM’s internal cognitive enterprise transformation. The work has culminated in the AI Enterprise Blueprint; a roadmap for IBM’s clients on their own journeys to AI.  Inderpal is an expert in transforming data into business value and improved customer experiences by delivering strategic, innovative capabilities that use analytic insights to enable growth and productivity.  In 2017, he was named U.S. Chief Data Officer of the Year by the CDO Club, and has been featured as an industry expert by Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, US News & World Report, CNN, and FOX.  Inderpal earned his Master of Science Degree in Electrical & Computer Engineering from the University of Massachusetts and holds a PhD in Electrical & Computer Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University.  Learn more about Inderpal’s insights on harnessing the power of data and accelerating Artificial Intelligence (AI) implementation at IBM’s Journey to AI and Think blogs.

In today’s podcast, we talk with Inderpal about data as a strategic asset, the challenge in ensuring new technologies are intuitive to engender user trust, and how Soldiers can be empowered to transform the Army into a data-centric culture.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Describing “data” as a field of study is like the “blind men describing an elephant,” each one will have a different, limited aspect of it, and thus, a different description. Data is now being recognized as more than just a record, as it can illuminate patterns and insights that can re-shape or invent new businesses and products. It is a strategic asset that is being referred to as the new oil, because it is “the fuel that drives the engine.” 

• Scaling is the goal of any chief data officer of a large company with a global footprint. The first key step is to understand what the company is trying to do, or for a commercial company, how they are trying to make money, and using the data strategy to enable that goal. For a large enterprise like the Army,the question will be how data can enable the Army to accomplish its various mission sets of deploying, fighting, and winning our Nation’s wars. 

• Culture change can occur in three ways:  Top-down as a strategy, laterally, and bottom-up/ grassroots. Bottom-up makes up the most significant portion of successful culture change in a system. Organizations need to make sure the users are prepared, and the technology interfaces are adapted to the change being sought. 

• You can’t make every employee or Soldier into a data scientist. It’s crucial to design systems or technology in a way that brings people along in a way that allows them to intuitively use them. Trust is a significant portion of that design. The system or technologyneeds to be able to explain to the decision-maker in human terms why it’s making the recommendation that it is. 

• In a data-centric culture, people have to be empowered. Employees and Soldiers in this type of environment can’t continually go up the ladder or chain of command to ask for permission. They must be able to act on the information that they’re given. But empowerment has to be vetted, as it can lead to chaos if not.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring insights about our upcoming Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022. To whet your appetite, check out the Save the Date announcement (below) and associated post here.

If you enjoyed today’s podcast and blog post, check out the following related content:

The Secret Sauce of America’s Army and associated podcast, with GEN Paul E. Funk II (USA-Ret.)

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Outsiders Solving Wicked Problems and associated podcast, with Shubhi Mishra

Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis, and Strategic Latency Unleashed!

The Future of Talent and Soldiers  and associated podcast, with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025:  A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!) by Ted Hallum

Algorithms of Armageddon and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi

The Language of AI and associated podcast, with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterprise and associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

“Own the Night” and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

SAVE THE DATE:  Join Army Mad Scientist and the National Museum of the United States Army (NMUSA) for the Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022, at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. This event will feature world-renowned expert speakers and panelists from industry, tech, academia, and the U.S. military and other government agencies discussing how history and experience inform and shape our future thinking and decision-making on critical issues. These historians, futurists, and thought leaders will converge backcasting with futurecasting to provide penetrating insights on Army people, materiel, readiness, and doctrine and concepts initiatives. Click here for more information about our first in-person conference since 2019!

Amy Webb advises Chief eXperience Officers (CXOs) of the world’s most-admired companies, three-star admirals and generals, and the senior leadership of central banks and intergovernmental organizations. Founder of the Future Today Institute, a leading foresight and strategy firm that helps leaders and their organizations prepare for complex futures, Amy pioneered a data-driven, technology-led foresight methodology that is now used within hundreds of organizations. Forbes called Amy “one of the five women changing the world.” She was honored as one of the BBC’s 100 Women of 2020 and is ranked on the Thinkers50 list of the 50 most influential management thinkers globally.  Amy is the best-selling author of several books. Her latest book, The Genesis Machine (PublicAffairs / Hachette 2022) examines the futures of gene editing, biotech, and synthetic biology. Synthetic biology is the promising and controversial technology platform that combines biology and artificial intelligence, opening up the potential to program biological systems much as we program computers. 

In today’s podcast, we talk with Amy about strategic foresight, emerging technologies like synthetic biology, and what she sees as vital implications for the U.S. Army.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• There are always three stages of work, whether in government or private sector, when it comes to foresight: Inputs (forces, signals, and trends), outcomes (scenarios describing plausible futures), and some form of action or backcasting (reverse engineering a preferred future).

• Synthetic or engineered biology consists of modifying or manipulating biological code to give it new or enhanced purposes.In the “read, edit, write” analogy, synthetic biology gives the user the “write” function to make sweeping changes with more control. This is not limited to human biology as it can be applied to plants, viruses, and any other biological material.

• Access to synthetic or designer biology may create a new class of genetic haves and have-nots. Wealth will be a restricting factor, but religious beliefs may also prove to be less tolerant of these manipulations and changes, thus hard-coding specific social values into the DNA of the future
• Policy and regulation do not adequately address the synthetic biology issue in a cohesive way. In some countries, genetic screening for certain types of diseases is employed, but it is generally unfavorable to screen for attributes that correlate to higher intelligence.  However, in some countries it is not illegal, and there are commercial entities offering to screen for cognitive ability.

• There are many implications borne out of a democratization of synthetic biology technology that will affect the U.S. Army in the future. Researchers are developing a device similar in size to a mobile phone that, in a battlefield environment, could screen for and sequence a novel pathogen. This will allow Soldiers to identify which genetic material and re-agents to use as an antidote or mix for a vaccine in the field.This could potentially increase battlefield readiness.

• The brain-machine computer known as “dishbrain”– containing human cells — was able to learn the video game “pong” more quickly than any artificial intelligence ever.  In the future, this type of technology could be used for hyper-real time, high-frequency strategy creation by the Army or, conversely, an adversary.

• The ethical considerations for “dishbrain” must also be taken into account.  Would it be considered a war-crime to torture an organic entity that’s not, by definition, a human? Will our adversaries come to the same conclusion as the U.S., or will we be disadvantaged by an asymmetry in ethics?

• Generative Artificial Intelligence is the next big societal disruptor.New open-source tools are scraping publicly available information for content, data, and potential decisions for investors. It could also be used to amplify misinformation and allow a foreign actor to sow distrust in a way that is harder to detect and more effective overall.
  
  

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — featuring Force Multiplier innovators from this year’s on-going Fed Supernova conference in Austin, Texas — coming to you on 13 October 2022! 

If you enjoyed this podcast, check out the following related content:

Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DOD, and the comprehensive report from which it was sourced

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

Linking Brains to Machines, and Use of Neurotechnology to the Cultural and Ethical Perspectives of the Current Global Stage, by Mr. Joseph DeFranco and Dr. James Giordano.

China’s Brain Trust: Will the U.S. Have the Nerve to Compete? by Mr. Joseph DeFranco, CAPT (USN – Ret.) L. R. Bremseth, and Dr. James Giordano

Disrupting the “Chinese Dream” – Eight Insights on how to win the Competition with China

Connected Warfare by COL James K. Greer (USA-Ret.)

Benefits, Vulnerabilities, and the Ethics of Soldier Enhancement

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano’s presentation and video on Neurotechnology in National Security and Defense, from the Mad Scientist Visioning Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on 25 & 26 July 2017; and his Neuroscience and the Weapons of War podcast, hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute (MWI), 2 August 2017

Top Ten Bio Convergence Trends Impacting the Future Operational Environment, Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference Final Report, and the comprehensive Final Report from the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference with SRI International at their Menlo Park campus in California on 8–9 March 2018

Ethics and the Future of War panel discussion, facilitated by proclaimed Mad Scientist LTG Jim Dubik (USA-Ret.) from the Mad Scientist Visualizing Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. on 25-26 July 2017

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far… and Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Raechel Melling

SAVE THE DATE:  Join Army Mad Scientist and the National Museum of the United States Army (NMUSA) for the Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022, at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. This event will feature world-renowned expert speakers and panelists from industry, tech, academia, and the U.S. military and other government agencies discussing how history and experience inform and shape our future thinking and decision-making on critical issues. These historians, futurists, and thought leaders will converge backcasting with futurecasting to provide penetrating insights on Army people, materiel, readiness, and doctrine and concepts initiatives. Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for more information on our first in-person conference since 2019!

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Karen Kaya specializes in Middle Eastern affairs with a particular focus on Turkey for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) within the TRADOC G-2.  She has worked on numerous projects in national security as a defense and security policy analyst.  Ms. Kaya has a BA from Boğaziçi University (in Istanbul, Turkey), and an MA from Brandeis University.

In today’s podcast, we talk with Ms. Kaya about the Bayraktar TB-2 UAV, its employment in recent conflicts including Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia-Ukraine, as well as the implications of Turkey becoming a global drone manufacturer and distributor.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• The Bayraktar TB-2 is a Turkish medium altitude, long endurance UAV capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations. Because of its inexpensive price point and ease of use, it has been dubbed the “Kalashnikov of the 21st century.”

• The TB-2 is unique amongst combat drones in that it has a low radar cross-sectionand flight speed, thus making it difficult for air defense radar to detect. This allows the TB-2 toengage and destroy systems designed to provide short to medium  range air defense. It can deliver laser guided munitions that can adjust their trajectories in mid-flight to target.

• Turkey has been training the Azerbaijani Armed Forces on how to effectively employ the TB-2 in combat. The Azeris used them systematically in the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh Waragainst Armenia’s Soviet and Russian-made air defense systems to breach the line of contact and take territory before the cease-fire agreement was signed.

• Their use and employment in Ukraine is different from that of Nagorno-Karabakh, as Ukraine is on the defensiveand has not trained with Turkey previously. However, it is important to note that this is the first time that the TB-2 has been used against Russian systems manned by Russian soldiers.

• In the last few years, Turkey has emerged as a drone superpower. It is one of the four leading countries in the world to produce, use, and export armed drones.The quality and relative low cost of the TB-2 has allowed Turkey to sell significant quantities to medium-sized countries without large defense budgets in Europe, Asia, and Africa. This, in turn, expands Turkey’s geopolitical influence.

• The other powers are watching. China is taking noteand seeing the importance of the relationship between drones and artillery while Russia is uneasy because the TB-2 has now been employed successfully against its own forces, its allies, and its equipment.

• The U.S. is witnessing these technologies’ costs falling, lowering the ‘entrance fee’ to combined arms operations and granting even non-state actors the ability to procure air domain capabilities.  As medium powers with limited defense budgets acquire these specific capabilities, they can significantly enhance their overall military capability at a relatively low cost. This could precipitate geopolitical competitions and inter-state rivalries transitioning into open conflict, complicating the operational environment.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring Amy Webb, futurist, author, and founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute. We’ll talk with Amy about strategic foresight, emerging technologies like synthetic biology, and what she sees as vital implications for the U.S. Army.

If you enjoyed Karen Kaya‘s podcast, check out her related monograph —  Turkey as a Drone Superpower:  A Case Study of a Mid-Size Power Driving the Operational Environment

… as well as the following related Mad Scientist content:

The Dawn of the Loitering Munitions Era, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Daniel S. Nasereddine

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) and its associated podcast

Insights from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in 2020 (Part I and II)

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”:  From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan.

The Future of Ground Warfare with COL Scott Shaw and its associated podcast

Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos

Character of Warfare 2035

Ground Warfare in 2050: How It Might Look, The Intelligent Battlefield of the Future, and its associated podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Alexander Kott

SAVE THE DATE:  Join Army Mad Scientist and the National Museum of the United States Army (NMUSA) for the Back to the Future: Using History to Forecast conference on 08-09 November 2022, at Fort Belvoir, Virginia. This event will feature world-renowned expert speakers and panelists from industry, tech, academia, and the U.S. military and other government agencies discussing how history and experience inform and shape our future thinking and decision-making on critical issues. These historians, futurists, and thought leaders will converge backcasting with futurecasting to provide penetrating insights on Army people, materiel, readiness, and doctrine and concepts initiatives. Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for more information on our first in-person conference since 2019!

Disclaimer:  The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Zach Schonbrun is a senior editor covering business and technology at The Week. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fast Company, ESPN the Magazine, SB Nation Longform, Vice, The Athletic, and Yahoo! Sports, among other publications.  Zach is the author of The Performance Cortex, which explores the neuroscience of motor skills, and was published by Dutton/Penguin Books in April 2018.  Before joining The Week, Zach covered five Final Fours, the Super Bowl, the World Series, the NBA postseason, US Open tennis and championship golf — among numerous other events — for the Times, as well as other business and sports features. Six of his articles have appeared on the front page of The New York Times. Zach received a B.A. in Economics from Syracuse in 2009 and an M.S. in Journalism from Columbia in 2011.

In today’s podcast, we talk with Zach about his book, how the brain — not the body — may be responsible for athletic prowess, and the implications for future Soldiers.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Soldiers share many characteristics with performance athletes, and researchers have identified ways to chart and measure brain activations when performing athletic tasks. Thesebrain activations provide insights into who can accomplish these tasks quicker and more accurately, helping to identify standout athletes, and possibly standout Soldiers, before they ever “take the field.”

• Movement is a very complicated system and it’s all controlled by the brain. Artificial Intelligence researchers have created computers that can beat humans in chess and Jeopardy, but roboticists still struggle with replicating motions and movements. Those who are adept at skilled movement, like star athletes, should be considered geniuses. They are using their brains in ways that challenge their decision-making, processing, understanding, and memory. 

• Emerging and current technology utilizing electroencephalogram (EEG) headsets for measuring brain activations is only the starting point. More sophisticated monitoring equipment and realistic simulation software will allow more in-depth tests to be conducted and more accurate readings to be collected.

• Neuroplasticity— the brain’s ability to reorganize itself by forming new neural connections throughout life — is much more active at a younger age, as the brain is much more pliable. Practice and training in these younger years is vital to adequately learning required tasks and completing them successfully. New recruits should get much of their complex training early in their careers. 

• Accurately re-creating real world conditions — all real world conditions — in a training environment is absolutely essential to learning the desired task. Batting practice in baseball has little value to the player as the pitches are slower and have less movement than the pitches they will face in a live game — in essence, players are not practicing the skill they will need. Are our Soldiers practicing in conditions that they won’t see in the real world? 

• We often prescribe very strict motor patterns when coaching or teaching. The better approach is understanding the constraints of the task and working within those constraints. Over-prescribing is a recipe for disaster.  

• Future technology may include more immersive virtual reality settings with increased sensory feedback. Fidelity to the task is paramount, and tactile feedback in a virtual environment where athletes can feel the ball in their hands — or Soldiers feel the recoil of their weapons — may enhance the learning output and resulting data to be analyzed. 

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring Karen Kaya, Senior Turkey/Middle East Analyst for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO), within the TRADOC G-2. Karen will be discussing the Bayraktar TB-2 Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle, its employment in recent conflicts including Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia-Ukraine, as well as the implications of Turkey becoming a global drone manufacturer and distributor.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated, as well as proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Tristan McClure-Begley‘s presentation and video on Targeted Neuroplasticity Training, from the Mad Scientist Learning in 2050 Conference, at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on 8-9 August 2018

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano‘s presentation and video on Neurotechnology in National Security and Defense, from the Mad Scientist Visioning Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on 25 & 26 July 2017; and his Neuroscience and the Weapons of War podcast, hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute (MWI), 2 August 2017

Top Ten Bio Convergence Trends Impacting the Future Operational Environment, Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference Final Report, and the comprehensive Final Report from the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference with SRI International at their Menlo Park campus in California on 8–9 March 2018

A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle

The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives and associated podcast, with Cathy Hackl

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

The Last Frontier, by PFC Peter Brenner

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Army Mad Scientist interviewed the following world-class SMEs to explore how wargaming can enhance traditional training and education methods to help build better Leaders:

Ian Sullivan serves as the Senior Advisor for Analysis and ISR to the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, at the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC G-2). This is a Tier One Defense Intelligence Senior Level (DISL) position. He is responsible for the analysis that defines and the narrative that explains the Army’s Operational Environment, which supports integration across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy. Mr. Sullivan is a career civilian intelligence officer who has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI); Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2 (USAREUR G-2); and as an Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) cadre member at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). Prior to assuming his position at the TRADOC G-2, Mr. Sullivan led a joint NCTC Directorate of Intelligence/Central Intelligence Agency Counterterrorism Mission Center unit responsible for Weapons of Mass Destruction terrorism issues, where he provided direct intelligence support to the White House, senior policymakers, Congress, and other senior customers throughout the Government. He was promoted into the Senior Executive ranks in June 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service, and transferred to the Army as a DISL employee in January 2017. Mr. Sullivan is also a frequent and valued contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory.

Mitchell Land has spent time in both the Navy and the Army National Guard, and has a life-long love affair with gaming war.  He is the designer of GMT’s Next War games. The series currently consists of five games (two of which are 2^nd Editions) and three supplements, with more on the way.  In addition, Mr. Land was the developer for GMT’s Silver Bayonet: The First Team in Vietnam (25^th Anniversary Edition) and Caesar:  Rome vs Gaul. When not playing or working on games, you can find him cycling — most often on the Katy Trail.

LTC Peter Soendergaard is an Infantry officer in the Royal Danish Army. He has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last ten years, he has worked in various force development positions, from the Danish Army’s Maneuver Center of Excellence to the Army Staff.  For the past four years, LTC Soendergaard has served as the Danish Army’s liaison officer to U.S. Army TRADOC.  He is currently serving in the strategic development section of the Danish Defense Command.

Jennifer McArdle is the Head of Research at Improbable U.S. Defense & National Security, a commercial start-up that is bringing innovative distributed simulation technology to defense. She also serves as an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Center for a New American Security’s defense program and wargaming lab and as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Joint Special Operations University. A former professor, Ms. McArdle has served on Congressman Langevin’s cyber advisory committee and as an expert member of a NATO technical group that developed cyber effects for the military alliance’s mission and campaign simulations. Ms. McArdle is a PhD candidate at King’s College London in War Studies, is the recipient of the RADM Fred Lewis (I/ITSEC) doctoral scholarship in modeling and simulation, and is a Certified Modeling and Simulation Professional (CMSP). She is a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations. Ms. McArdle is also a frequent and valued contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory and The Convergence podcast.

Becca Wasser is a Fellow in the Defense Program and lead of the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security. Her research areas include defense strategy, force design, strategic and operational planning, force posture and employment, and wargaming. Prior to joining CNAS, Ms. Wasser was a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, where she led research projects and wargames for the Department of Defense and other U.S. Government entities. She holds a BA from Brandeis University and an MS in foreign service from the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security. Her areas of expertise include defense strategy, posture, force planning, the defense budget, and wargaming. Prior to joining CNAS, Dr. Pettyjohn spent over 10 years at the RAND Corporation as a political scientist. Between 2019–2021, she was the director of the strategy and doctrine program in Project Air Force. From 2014–2020, she served as the co-director of the Center for Gaming. In 2020, she was a volunteer on the Biden administration’s defense transition team. She has designed and led strategic and operational games that have assessed new operational concepts, tested the impacts of new technology, examined nuclear escalation and warfighting, and explored unclear phenomena, such as gray zone tactics and information warfare. Previously, she was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, a peace scholar at the United States Institute of Peace, and a TAPIR fellow at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Pettyjohn holds a PhD and an MA in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and a BA in history and political science from the Ohio State University.

Sebastian Bae is a research analyst and game designer at CNA’s Gaming & Integration program, and works in wargaming, emerging technologies, the future of warfare, and strategy and doctrine for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. He also serves as an adjunct assistant professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, where he teaches a graduate course on designing educational wargames. He has taught similar courses at the U.S. Naval Academy and the U.S. Marine Corps Command & Staff College. He is also the faculty advisor to the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, the Co-Chair of the Military Operations Research Society Wargaming Community of Practice, and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity. Previously, he served six years in the Marine Corps Infantry, leaving as a Sergeant. He deployed to Iraq in 2009.

Dan Mahoney is the Chief of the Campaign Wargaming Division at the Center for Army Analysis (CAA). Mr. Mahoney was an ROTC Cadet at Lehigh University and spent 23 years as an Infantry officer in the Army, retiring as a Lieutenant Colonel. He taught at the United States Military Academy at West Point before attending the School of Advanced Military Studies, becoming the Chief of Plans for the 1st Cavalry Division, and eventually founding the Campaign Wargaming Division at CAA.

Jeff Hodges is the educational lead at the U.S. Army Modeling and Simulation School (AMSS) at Ft. Belvoir, VA. He designs and implements courses at AMSS to ensure that the FA57 and CP36 workforce can fully support the Commander’s readiness objectives by building awareness, building a Common Operating Picture (COP), and building tough and realistic simulations, tabletop exercises, and wargames that facilitate staff understanding, education, and training.

In today’s podcast, our panel of SMEs address how wargaming can enhance Professional Military Education (PME), hone cognitive warfighting skills, and broaden our understanding of future Operational Environment possibilities.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Learning from Wargaming can be broken down into two categories: discovery/analytic and experiential. Both categories are important but have different end-goals. Discovery/analytic wargaminghelps one develop new insights or better understand some type of phenomena (e.g., concept or capability development). Experiential wargaming supports training and education and is designed to instill best practices, lessons learned, and develop creativity and agility among future leaders. Wargaming allows players to transcend their current realities and build cognitive warfighting proficiencies. 

• Experiential learning leads to far higher learning retention than traditional passive methods of instruction, such as classroom-based lectures. It allows individuals to follow their ideas, work through problems as they arise, experience failure in a safe environment, and ultimately learn how to overcome challenges. 

• The key to a successful wargame is an informed, accurate, and thinking adversary. It is vital that the Red Cell depicts an adversary as close to reality as possible, providing players with the best opportunities to learn about adversarial tactics and capabilities, decision-making, and thought-processes. 

• Wargaming is used extensively at different levels in the Army — to explore ideas, look at alternatives, and think about the future, but also to test concepts and capabilities. Wargaming formats range from traditional table top board games, to discussion-based exercises, to computerized simulationsthat provide players with a realistic, immersive environment to visualize the fight. 

• Designing an effective and successful wargame is dependent on one’s focus and learning demands. Designers should start the process by identifying the goal(s) that they want to accomplish and then work backwards. Carefully selecting the correct tools and technology to support players achieving the end-goal(s) is pivotal to eliciting the desired learning outcome. 

• While wargaming can provide an accurate and realistic representation of a real-world adversary’s tactics, techniques, and procedures,it can also uncover unexpected TTPs that our forces may not have anticipated.  Encountering these actions in the game allows players to develop and implement courses of action in a consequence-free environment, helping them to avoid operational surprise on the battlefield, while building confidence in their ability to successfully overcome it when it inevitably occurs. 

• The future of wargaming will likely be more technology-heavy, interactive, distributed, and realistic while still having a significant amount of traditional and manual games. Learning goals can be achieved via both conventional (e.g., table top) wargaming and immersive simulations employing emergent technologies. Regardless of the media, some posit that the golden age of wargaming is coming to an end, as there is a dearth of young talent in the pipelineto replace the old guard.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring Zach Schonbrun, journalist and author of The Performance Cortex: How Neuroscience is Redefining Athletic Genius.  We’ll talk with Zach about his book, how the brain — not the body — may be responsible for athletic prowess, and the implications for future Soldiers.

If you enjoyed this post, explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment and our how our adversaries fight to enhance the reality of your wargaming experience…

…. and check out the following Army Mad Scientist wargaming-related content:

Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

A New American Way of Training and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle

From Legos to Modular Simulation Architectures: Enabling the Power of Future (War) Play, by Jennifer McArdle and Caitlin Dohrman

The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives with Cathy Hackl and associated podcast

Gamers Building the Future Force  and associated podcast

Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

COL John Antal (USA, Ret.) is a lifelong student of leadership and the art of war. His purpose in life is “to develop leaders and inspire service.” Today, he is an Amazon best-selling author, a defense analyst, a military correspondent, and a galvanic speaker. John has appeared on radio, podcast, and television shows and is the author of 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles on military and leadership subjects. His latest books are Leadership Rising (July 2021); and 7 Seconds to Die, A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022). In the past year, based on his in-depth study of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, COL Antal has made over 108 presentations on the “changing methods of warfare” to U.S. military and national security leaders. He offers these presentations to the U.S. military at no charge and as a “Soldier for Life.” His previous The Convergence podcast — Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War — and its associated blog post remain Army Mad Scientist’s “best-selling” listens and reads to date!

In today’s podcast, COL Antal returns to discuss the challenges facing our Army in executing continuous and uninterrupted mission command in the contemporary battlespace, ensuring command post survivability, and achieving the Joint Force’s requirement for an All Domain Common Operational Picture.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Modern conflict is increasingly transparent; it is impossible to hide on the battlefield.  Consequently, it is imperative that the Army adopt and practice “masking” — a full spectrum, multi-domain effort to deceive enemy sensors and disrupt targeting.  Our Joint Force must obscure its optical, thermal, electronic, acoustic, and quantum signatures — or die! 

• Today’s centralized command posts are incredibly vulnerable to enemy fire, while “Command Posts-in-Sanctuary” — those out of reach of adversary strikes — are limited by communications capabilities. To find an appropriate middle ground, we should adopt decentralized, mobile command posts that can support command and control and mask their locations and communications. 

• It is unlikely that the United States will initiate the first strike in a conflict. Therefore, the U.S. military must consider how it will respond to a first strike by our adversaries. We should ask what we could do to prepare for a bolt from the blue attack, then make those changes now. 

• Like our adversaries, we must assimilate the lessons learned from the on-going war in Ukraine.  China, for instance, has learned that any potential invasion of Taiwan requires the rapid application of overwhelmingly devastating military strength. 

• The tempo of war is accelerating. The Joint Force should adapt its mission command to operate in this space.  Integration with Artificial Intelligence (AI) will facilitate the creation of a Kill Web, replacing our current human-centric, and slower, Kill Chain.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — addressing how wargaming can broaden our understanding of future Operational Environment possibilities — to be published in a fortnight on 18 August 2022.  To whet your appetite, read Ian Sullivan‘s informative post entitled Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check.

If you enjoyed this post, check out COL Antal’s associated paper — 21 Command Post Rules To Live By — and his previous insights on battlefield transparency and masking in Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the associated podcast…

… as well as the following related content:

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization

War Laid Bare and Decision in the 21st Century, by Matthew Ader

On Surprise Attacks Below the “Bolt from the Blue” Threshold, by Lesley Kucharski

Battlefield sensing and AI discussions in The Future of Ground Warfare with COL Scott Shaw and associated podcast

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Army Mad Scientist interviewed the following world-class SMEs to address what we’ve learned about How Russia Fights 2.0:

Ian Sullivan serves as the Senior Advisor for Analysis and ISR to the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, at the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC G-2). This is a Tier One Defense Intelligence Senior Level (DISL) position. He is responsible for the analysis that defines and the narrative that explains the Army’s Operational Environment, which supports integration across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy. Mr. Sullivan is a career civilian intelligence officer who has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI); Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2 (USAREUR G-2); and as an Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) cadre member at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). Prior to assuming his position at the TRADOC G-2, Mr. Sullivan led a joint NCTC Directorate of Intelligence /Central Intelligence Agency Counterterrorism Mission Center unit responsible for Weapons of Mass Destruction terrorism issues, where he provided direct intelligence support to the White House, senior policymakers, Congress, and other senior customers throughout the Government. He was promoted into the Senior Executive ranks in June 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service, and transferred to the Army as a Defense Intelligence Senior Level employee in January 2017. Mr. Sullivan is also a frequent and valued contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory.

Sam Bendett is an Adviser with CNA‘s Strategy, Policy, Plans and Programs Center (SP3), where he is a member of the Russia Studies Program. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. His work involves research on Russian defense and technology developments, unmanned and autonomous military systems and artificial intelligence, as well as Russian military capabilities and decision-making during crises. He is a Member of CNA’s Center for Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence, and a proclaimed Mad Scientist, having contributed multiple insightful blog posts to the Mad Scientist Laboratory addressing Russian autonomous weapons and presented informative topics during a number of Army Mad Scientist webinars and conferences. He is also a Russian military autonomy and AI SME for the DoD’s Defense Systems Information Analysis Center.

Katerina Sedova  currently serves at the Global Engagement Center in the U.S. Department of State. Formerly a Research Fellow at the Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Ms. Sedova helps coordinate efforts at the GEC’s Russia Division to analyze, expose, and counter Russia’s disinformation, including about its war in Ukraine. Following the 2016 election, the U.S. Government greatly increased its efforts to protect future elections from foreign influence. As part of that effort, the GEC’s mission was significantly expanded to fill a critical gap:  the need to expose and counter the disinformation that foreign adversaries spread overseas. More specifically, the GEC’s mission is to lead and coordinate U.S. Government efforts to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign disinformation aimed at undermining the stability of the United States, our allies, and our partners.  Ms. Sedova is a proclaimed Mad Scientist, having participated in our AI Speeding up Disinformation panel discussion during the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events in 2020.

BG Peter B. Zwack is a non-resident Wilson Center Global Fellow focusing on Russian-Eurasian challenges and opportunities at The Kennan Institute. This follows almost fours years at the National Defense University (2015-2019) and 34 years in the U.S. Army.  BG Zwack concluded 25 months (2012-2014) as the Senior Defense Official/ Defense Attaché to Russia where he witnessed tumultuous events and troubling changes involving Russia and our security relationship. Having joined the private sector, BG Zwack consults, speaks, teaches, and writes on a broad range of topics ranging from Russia and Eurasia to leadership lessons-learned. He has a wide range of experience, including command, staff, and managerial positions at every echelon from tactical to strategic, military to diplomatic, supporting 4-star commanders and Ambassadors. BG Zwack has taught international security studies at the Masters level and lectures regularly within numerous government and private venues.

BG Peter L. Jones  served as the Director, Russian New Generation Warfare (RNGW) Study Group in 2016-7, tasked with analyzing Russian disruptive technologies and methods in support of the Army Capabilities Integration Center at Ft. Eustis, Virginia.  BG Jones coordinated with Combatant Commands, DoD, the Joint Staff, academia, and the Intelligence Community to determine implications for future force and capability development.  Leading the review and analysis of critical intelligence reports and studies; participating in Army, EUCOM and USAREUR CONPLAN scenario analysis and wargames; and developing Army and Joint Staff operating concepts — BG Jones integrated findings into the development of the U.S. Army’s Multi-Domain Battle and supporting functional concepts.  BG Jones also served as the Chief of Infantry for the U.S. Army and Commandant of the Infantry School, responsible for all generating aspects of the Army’s Infantry force, to include doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy.  He is a decorated combat leader with over 48 months of combat deployments. BG Jones currently serves as the President and Chief Operating Officer for the National Infantry Museum Foundation.

Dr. Mica Hall serves as Devil’s Advocate Red Team, TRADOC G-2, where she develops innovative strategies to attract, educate, and train intelligence and non-intelligence professionals for the DoD.  Dr. Hall coordinates activities with senior leaders within the DoD to gain support for new strategies and Army initiatives, and supports efforts to implement new programs throughout the Intelligence Community and influence applicable DoD-wide programs. Prior to joining the TRADOC G-2, Dr. Hall served over two decades at the Defense Language Institute in a number of leadership positions, including    Associate Provost, Directorate of Continuing Education; Dean, Persian Farsi School; Academic Specialist, Middle East I; Associate Dean, Extension Programs; Branch Chief, Russian Intermediate/ Advanced; and Assistant Professor, Russian Basic, Intermediate, and Advanced Courses.  Dr. Hall has also contributed insightful blog posts to the Mad Scientist Laboratory exploring Russia’s move to adopt and weaponize the cryptoruble as a means of asserting its digital sovereignty and ensuring national security.

In today’s post and podcast, our panel of SMEs discuss what we’ve learned during the last five months of Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in eastern Ukraine.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• The conflict with Ukraine has not gone the way Russia expected. Early underestimation of the Ukrainian militaryto combat a peer adversary has led to minimal successes and slow acquisition of territory. However, the conflict has reached a rhythm now, with a pace that more closely resembles the slog of the western front in WWI, instead of the quick and decisive campaign Russia envisioned. 

• Russia conducted a number of exercises to prepare for this conflict, but they didn’t exercise the critical webs and hubs of logistics, long road marches, and frontal operations Their invasion started with an assumption of little to no resistance and a disdain in their planning for the professionalism and tenacity of Ukrainian fighters. 

• Russian modernization is an evolving concept. Some advanced technology was adopted and integrated into the forces well, and some was not. Many weapons and systems in the research and development stages, never made it past the testing stage. At the same time, Russian peers and adversaries were developing many of the same technologies. 

• Russia is now getting back to basics. Their strength is fires and that approach is evident in the Donbas area where they are employing fires effectively and en masse. “Magazine depth” may be the ultimate decider in this conflict, as mass is still important and Russia has vast resources. 

• Prior to the war, the Russian Military was discussing the use of UAVs for ISR, targeting, and electronic warfare. We’re now seeing that use in Ukraine, with unmanned systems guiding rocket and artillery forces to Ukrainian targets. The Russian military lacked this capability in large numbers prior to the war, but observed its effectiveness in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

• The core of the Russian invasion was built on poor assumptions and faulty intelligence and therefore was not designed as a full-scale war with full-scale mobilization. The Russian officer corps performed as well as it could under the circumstances, but an over reliance on them may have attributed to early failures and the deaths of many General Officers. 

• Combat experience is helpful, but it must be the right kind of experience. In Syria, the Russian military wasn’t fighting the same fight it is now against a peer adversary with similar capabilities. If Russia had initially invaded Ukraine with the same tactics and concepts that they are employing at this point in the war, it may have been a very different conflict. 

• It is too early to learn lessons. We are still observing and contextualizing this conflict and we may not actually learn anything until well after it is over. We can’t dismiss the Russian military because it had a bad start. Consequently, we can’t expect that what we’re seeing in Ukraine would be what we might see from Russia if they confronted NATO in a conflict. 

• Despite their failures, Russia may, at some point, try to claim victoryby creating conditions on the ground and then looking for an off-ramp — freezing the conflict, putting a broad peace agreement in place, or making a deal directly with Ukraine. Ukraine can only hope to keep fending them off, however they have already lost a large swathes of territory. 

• Russia has a specific and targeted goal with its information operations— divide the West and sow distrust amongst democratic institutions. It aims to break down our existing orders and put pressure on partner governments to reverse course and limit support to Ukraine.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — Mask and Move, or Die! — with proclaimed Mad Scientist and returning guest COL John Antal (USA-Ret.), to be published in a fortnight on 4 August 2022.  To whet your appetite, read the highlights from COL Antal‘s previous podcast and then listen to it directly here.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content:

Our initial How Russia Fights post and associated podcast

Russia Landing Zone content on the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page — including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Ukraine: All Roads Lead to Urban and associated podcast; and War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now and the associated podcast with MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.)

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1) and Democratized Intelligence, by Kate Kilgore

How will the RUS-UKR Conflict Impact Russia’s Military Modernization?, by Dr. Jacob Barton

The Bear is Still There: Four Insights on Competition with Russia

Major Trends in Russian Military Unmanned Systems Development for the Next Decade, Russian Ground Battlefield Robots: A Candid Evaluation and Ways Forward, and Autonomous Robotic Systems in the Russian Ground Forces, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Sam Bendett

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan

Russian Private Military Companies: Their Use and How to Consider Them in Operations, Competition, and Conflict

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.) is the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Madison Policy Forum. He served over twenty-five years in the U.S. Army as an infantry Soldier, with two combat tours in Iraq as both an Infantry Platoon Leader and Company Commander. He has also served as a Ranger Instructor with the Army’s Ranger School, a Joint Chief of Staff and Army Staff intern, fellow with the Chief of Staff of the Army’s Strategic Studies Group, and Strategic Planner and Deputy Director of the Modern War Institute, where he was instrumental in the design and formation of the institute.

In today’s interview, MAJ Spencer returns to discuss what we’ve learned about LSCO, urban conflict, and the changing character of warfare from the last four plus months of Russia’s “special military operation” in eastern Ukraine.  The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

• Modern technology forces our societies, and those of our adversaries, to be more connected to the battlefield. As the Ukrainian “Tik-Tok” war demonstrates, such connectedness can allow actors outside of the war to leverage open-source intelligence to influence the conflict by providing either side with logistical support and operational advice. 

• It is important to study wars firsthand to understand how they are evolving to the modern context; the U.S. military used to employ appointed observers for this mission. Given that the battle for Kyiv is a truly urban fight, there is much the Army can learn from the conflict.

• The battle for Kyiv demonstrates that, especially in an urban environment, terrain still matters. Ukrainians flooded rivers and destroyed bridges to canalize Russian invaders into chokepoints and kill zones, demonstrating an understanding of their environment unthinkable to non-natives. 

• The Russian invasion also demonstrates the importance of civilian involvement in urban conflict, as volunteers collaborated to establish defenses in depth, targeting and ambushing their attackers. Here, too, technology played an important role. Images and messages from the Ukrainian government and their fellow citizens helped strengthen citizens’ resolve to defend their country.

• Today, Soldiers and their families are more connected by technology than ever, allowing them to live with a foot in each world. This feature of modern warfare is important as it prevents Soldiers from feeling isolated, but also gives civilian families a clearer understanding of the realities of warfare.

• What are we missing?  The Army is not learning the lessons of modern war.  Future conflict will happen in urban areas.  The Army still doesn’t have a major school for urban warfare; and it still doesn’t have a unit focused on fighting in the urban environment.  We now have the 11th Arctic Division — where is our Urban Division?

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — How Russia Fights, Part 2 — to be published in a fortnight on 21 July 2022.  To whet your appetite, read the highlights from Part 1 and listen to the associated podcast.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out our previous post and podcast with MAJ Spencer — War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now and the associated podcast

… as well as the following related content:

TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Waterworld: How Ukraine Flooded Three Rivers to Help Save Kyiv, by John Spencer and Liam Collins, published by our colleagues at Modern War Institute

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat, and associated podcast

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1) and Democratized Intelligence, by Kate Kilgore

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Dr. Brent L. Sterling

Russia Landing Zone content on the Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page